Fantasy Baseball Advice

So you have the same song stuck in your head while you read this as I have in my head while writing it, let me just say this, “Black and yellow… Black and yellow… Black and yellow…”   At least I didn’t say, “I whip my hair back and forth,” because that’s much worse.  Or anything by Ke$ha.  You know what the dollar sign stands for in the middle of her name?  The money you have to pay me to listen to her.  When I looked at Ryan Zimmerman back in September, I said, “Seems like Zimmerman’s career is following the two steps forward, one step back Electric Slide approach.  In fairness, it was due to some thigh tightness in April and missing the last two weeks that caused Zimmerman to fall just short of projections.  I have to say, for a top guy, he kinda bored me for stretches.  Particularly, the 2 homer, .245 month of June and a zero homer month of September.”  And that’s me recapping the recap!  That didn’t sound like a huge endorsement, but he was also 25-years-old for the majority of 2010 and he was still a top five 3rd baseman.  A position that is hella shallow in 2011.  So what do I think Ryan Zimmerman can do in 2011 and what makes him a fantasy baseball keeper?

Jayson Werth took a hit when he went for the greenbacks down in Washington, but it doesn’t mean it will hurt Zimmerman.  I’m not thrilled Zimmerman has a hard time staying healthy for an entire season.  Who are you, Tulo?  Kinsler?  Minus a piddling 2008, Zimmerman has been consistent.  Good for 25 homers and a solid average.  He has some sneaky speed, but he seems like he’s abandoned that element of his game.  Probably at the request of the Nats.  If he can somehow have a full season of ABs, he could be the most valuable 3rd baseman in the game.  Bill James is only giving Zimmerman a line of 94/27/95/.291/4.  Usually BJ’s on the optimistic side, but I’m doing BJ one better.  I’m one-upping him!  I’m giving Zimmerman a line of 90/32/100/.285/5 and think we’re about to get that big season from him.  Finally.  Or maybe it’s just “Black and yellow… Black and yellow… Black and yellow…” has made me daffy.

For all major league starters named Francisco Liriano and not named Francisco Liriano, he only ranked 37th overall in ERA, behind Anibal Sanchez, Chad Billingsley and The Wandwagon.  Liriano only won 14 games, which ranked 25th overall, tied with Jon Garland, Lackey and Brett Myers, amongst other yawnstipating names.  So on first glance, you may not realize how good he was last year.  He had the fifth best K/9 for major league starters last year.  Above him, Lincecum, Lester, Yovani and Filthy Sanchez.  Of those five, guess which one had the best xFIP at 3.06.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *taps finger, scratches head, flosses*  It was Liriano!  C’mon, that was a gimme.  Okay, of those five, who had the best BB/9?  *takes out garbage, wipes dandruff off shoulder, uses dandruff to add ambiance to fake Christmas tree*  It was Liriano again!  Now for the next fifteen minutes, I’m also going to throw in that Francisco Liriano was drafted on average around 200th overall.  That alone makes him a keeper for 2011 fantasy baseball but let’s see what we can expect from him in 2011 fantasy baseball?

People may still be scared off of Liriano from his bout with TJ surgery, but the gender reassignment–wait, that’s Tijuana surgery.  I mean, the Tommy John surgery was a success.  He looked like dog’s vomit in 2009 because he wasn’t full back yet.  A common issue with TJ recipients is their control is all over the place (literally!).  That happened to Liriano.  In 2009, he posted his worst BB/9 at 4.28.  As briefly mentioned by Mr. Intro Paragraph, his BB/9 was excellent last year at 2.72.  Even if he loses a bit of that control and goes closer to his career mark of 3.18, it’s still solid.  The Ks are not going anywhere.  The home park, Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome, plays just as it sounds.  I’ll give him a line of 16-10/3.40/1.22/200, which is conservative.  Finally, it feels like Liriano has been in the game longer than Dr. Dre but he’ll still only be 27-years-old for the 2011 season.  In 200 innings, you’re looking at a guy that could be in the running for the Cy Young.  Assuming Murray Chass doesn’t register under multiple names and vote for Jim Bunning.

David Price is the favorite player for Tampa-area Jews until they promote Ben L’Chaim from Double-A.  They like to invite Price to mahjong games then haggle over him.  All true.  Oy.  Last year, David Price raised his K-rate, lowered his walk rate, knocked a run and a half off his ERA and won nineteen games.  You say it’s him showing his maturity, I say it’s due to him bending his cap just slightly to avoid the fate of other flat-billed pitchypusses.  Luckily, Price didn’t win the Cy Young.  That would’ve sent Keith Law into a shame-the-BBWAA spiral like no one had ever seen before.  I will draw a mustache on your picture, Mr. Reilly! But, and unless you’re an alien there’s always a but, it wasn’t all peaches and cream for Mr. Price.  His xFIP was 3.99 as he got lucky with home runs allowed and men left on base.  He still pitches in the toughest division and he’s susceptible to someone straightening the bill of his cap just a hair more.  So what do I think of David Price for 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?

In 2009, Price only threw a curveball 3.7% of the time.  In 2010, he bumped that up to 15.6% while taking away his slider.  Whatever the case, it worked.  The percentage of pitches that batters swung at outside of the strike zone against Price was 31.1% in 2010.  The year before it was only 22.5%.  This makes me think unless he takes another left turn, he should be able to maintain his gains in his K-rate.  The home runs will come back though, unless the Rays make their rafters remote-controlled operated.  He’s not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  Not in that division, at least.  Assuming he can give up those extra home runs without it rattling him too much and he can maintain all of his other gains, he’s still going to be a solid pitcher in 2011.  I’d give him a line of 15-9/3.70/1.22/200.  For where you drafted him in keepers in 2010, it definitely makes him a keeper.  In redraft leagues, will have to see where he’s being drafted before I decide how much I’ll be owning him.  Right now, my guess is he’ll be slightly overrated due to his artificially low ERA.

I’m taking a break from telling you some obvious guys are keepers (Joey Votto is a keeper?!  Get outta town, Grey!) to tell you Jhoulys Chacin is a keeper in some leagues.  No, he’s not a keeper in 12 team mixed leagues if you’re choosing between him and Halladay (unless Halladay will cost you $75).  At some point in January, I’m going to quote this article telling you how much I like Chacin in redraft leagues.  Sleeper, anyone?  At some point in March, I’ll probably post one of my teams and you’ll see Chacin on there.  Not to mention, I have Chacin already on a keeper team of mine, so I’m pot committed.  Yes, I’m holding Yo-lease tight.  In his 2010 — rookie! — season, Chacin put up a line of 9-11/3.28/1.27/138 in 137 1/3 IP.  Ah, yes, the magical more strikeouts than inning thing-a-ma-boob.  Sign me up for Chacin in every league.  The days of Rockies pitchers looking like they stayed in a Super 8 the night before are over.  So what can we expect of Jhoulys Chacin for 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?

You ready to spit your rice pudding out of your mouth?  Chacin can be a 2010 Ubaldo in 2011.  In 60 1/3 IP after the All-Star break, he had a 2.24 ERA.  The batting average against him was .218.  Yeah, that’s a small sample size.  In the entire year, he only had one month over a 4.00 ERA.  It was July.  That month he had a 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 IP.  He had one bad month.  The 15 2/3 IP in July is really the small sample size that is hurting all his other numbers.  And even in that one bad month, he had a 10.74 K/9.  He also was hit by bad luck in July, and his xFIP was 3.86.  Take July out of the picture, Chacin’s ERA is 2.88 in 121 2/3 IP.  No foolin’.  That’s pretty good doode.  Oh, and he was in the bullpen in July where he obviously wasn’t comfortable.  He’s really a starter.  Chacin will probably cost you a last round pick or only a few dollars to keep.  At those prices, I like him a lot.  Sorry, if this is blowing the cover off one of your hidden gems; you’re so Anne Frank.

This will probably be the last time you hear me talk positively about Carlos Gonzalez.  He’s going to be overrated next year.  (Well, that positive stuff was short-lived.)  There’s no way around it.  But, for one last time, let’s live in the moment and assume you drafted him around the 10th round last year.  That makes him some kinda keeper because he’s not going that late in 2011 fantasy baseball.  Shoot, he may not see the 2nd round.  You could probably trade CarGo right now for, say, Prince Fielder and sex with your leaguemates’ wife.  It’s Indecent Proposal with…. Overweight guys!  I like it, I like it.  Who do we have to star in it?  Who else?  Kevin James!  He’s so lovable!  Or how about we get Tyler Perry to direct and get Cedric the Entertainer to star?  I love it!  So in 2010, Carlos Gonzalez was All-World for fantasy.  A five category performer.  111/34/117/.336/26 was the line.  At one point, he helped your grandfather down from the third floor of a burning building.  Cost you your inheritance, but you still got Pop-Pop to tell you stories about what grandma looked like in a girdle.

Last year, Mark Reynolds was a solid keeper and also overrated.  I’ll say this, I think CarGo will be better in 2011 than what Mark Reynolds was in 2010.  My CarGo concerns, which I’ll get to when I go over his overrated post, have more to do the insane year he just had and how every single thing that could go right did.  It’s not like CarGo will collapse and become a droppable piece of fantasy driftwood.  He’s a 20/20 guy with a high .280-ish average.  It’s completely solid.  It is not 110+ Runs and RBIs, 30+ homers and a near-.340 average like it was in 2010.  I mean, c’mon.  You want fantasy baseball?  Thinking you’re going to get that again is fantasy baseball.  In 2011, I see a line of 90/24/95/.285/20.  That’s a totally solid keeper, but it’s not– Okay, we’ll hold on what it’s not for another day.