Positional weighting (aka ‘positional scarcity’ for fearmongers or fearophiles) in fantasy baseball is one of the most discussed and least understood variables when it comes to ranking players. I have heard arguments ranging the whole gamut on how much a player’s value is impacted by their position – everything from ‘it means nothing’ to ‘it means everything.’
In my yearly review of my Point Shares methodology, I decided to test the underlying assumptions on positional weighting. Please, blog, may I have some more?
For these pairings, I’m going to be using our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. Notably, the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2011, top 60 starters for 2011 and the top 80 starters for 2011. Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done. What is a pitcher pairing? It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff. It’s a plan of action. If you have A pitcher, which B, C and D pitcher goes with him? You should have six starters. The sixth starter is Mike Minor or take whoever you want. I suggest an upside pick. Mike Minor comes to mind. Or Jordan Zimmermann. Jordan Zimmermann also comes to mind. I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 Pitchers league. (NOTE: What you are about to read is massively confusing. If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me.) Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2011 fantasy baseball drafts:
“The best, Jerry. The best!” and “Top starters that I’m wary of.” – These tiers are from Halladay to Sabathia. There’s very little chance I have anyone in either of these tiers. If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Haren tier of the top 40 starters. Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Marcum/Daniel Hudson and one guy from the flyer tier of Chacin. Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Minor or Zimmermann. So F-Her, Scherzer, Marcum, Chacin, Vazquez and Zimmermann. That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Since back in June when you abandoned your fantasy baseball team because it was totally sucking and you returned to your cubbyhole of Doritos and Freezer Pops, you’ve longed for this day. As Bob Marley sang, this is your redemption song, mon. Or womon. It’s time again to join some fantasy baseball leagues. Before you close all of your extraneous porn windows and rush to sign up, let’s explain how these fantasy baseball leagues are going to work. We’re going to have a bunch of leagues and crown a winner from each, then we’re going to crown ONE winner from all of the winners. We will be be crowning the winner by taking each team’s points and multiplying it against a ‘league competitiveness factor.’ If you want to see how it worked last year, go here. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Okay, so it’s not the best 2011 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right? This is the best 2011 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting from my top 100 for 2011 fantasy baseball and top 300 for 2011 fantasy baseball. If I choose Miggy Cabrera at number one, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then two players, then 24 picks, then 2 players and so on until the end of the top 100. Just like a snake draft. It would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Halladay in the first round and I was able to take Longoria and Howard, but since they’re both in the first 12, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both. Then, as we all know, once you get into the 100s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken. People tend to look at team need over value. So for this exercise, once I get to pick #101, I’m going to pick two players every twenty picks, rather than every 24 picks. That’s to account for the wide margin between ADP and where players are drafted. Finally, because there is so much latitude amongst the last 100, I gave myself free reign to fill up my team. Throughout the draft, I also gave myself the ability to reach to a lower draft pick, but not reach forward. It should still be my ideal team… Or not. Let’s see, shall we? Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench. Anyway, here’s the best 2011 fantasy baseball team:
C: Mike Napoli (10)
1B: Miggy Cabrera (1)
2B: Danny Espinosa (16)
3B: Adrian Beltre (4)
SS: Jose Reyes (3)
MI: Eric Young Jr. Please, blog, may I have some more?
This was author and innovator Lou Poulas’ introduction last year, “While Grey and Rudy do a great job of breaking down everything you need to know for 2011 fantasy baseball, drafts still trip me up. I’ve been lamenting my inadequacies from the past 3+ years which resulted in an inordinate amount of time number crunching in Excel. My quest – a draft day “war room” that allowed me to keep my finger on the pulse of the league while minimizing my effort. I don’t know about you, but I prefer to keep track of more things as opposed to fewer.”
Presenting the free 2011 Fantasy Baseball War Room. Please, blog, may I have some more?
With the Razzball Commenter Leagues sign ups starting on Monday, we decided to take a look at what last year’s RCLs showed us. I.e., this is what it took to win these fantasy baseball leagues last year. Across twenty-one 12 team leagues, you would think you’d have some wide variations, but it’s amazingly close what you need in each category to do average vs. Please, blog, may I have some more?
One recurring question regarding my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings is why do I have so and so above so and so if I say I like the second so and so better than the first so and so? Okay, so I’ve never received that exact question, because that’s massively confusing. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Finally, we come to the end of the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. (Can we start games already?) Okay, you know that I like Travis Snider more than Delmon Young in the top 60 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball. You know I like Ian Desmond better than Starlin Castro as seen at the top 20 shortstops for 2011 fantasy baseball. But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture. Is Ian Desmond above Travis Snider? Yup. So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2011 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a top 300 for 2011 fantasy baseball. This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If you have a shortstop already and Ian Desmond is still on the board in the 17th round, you don’t draft him if you see Travis Snider and you need an outfielder, even though Travis Snider is below Ian Desmond on this list. So I might take someone at 200 over someone at 180? Yes, every draft is different. With the top 10, there’s almost no latitude. With the top 100, there’s a decent amount of latitude. With a top 300, there’s lots of latitude. You taking someone at 185 is more or less the same as someone else taking someone at 235. So if you see someone who’s ranked at 250th, but want them at 200, then do what you do. Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. The top 100 and top 300 is what I would have at my drafts, along with the Point Shares and the top 20 rankings posts. I already went over a top 100 for 2011 fantasy baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again. This top 300 will go from 101 to 300. Finally, see our list of all players with multiple position eligibility. Anyway, here’s the top 300 for 2011 fantasy baseball:
101. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The first run of our 2011 Point Shares for 10 and 12 MLB leagues are now available there and via the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings menu at the top of the page. The player rate projections are a composite of Marcel projections, FanGraphs fan projections and CAIRO (created/managed by SG at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog – can be downloaded here). Please, blog, may I have some more?
With the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for every position done, we turn our lazy eye towards the top 100 for 2011 fantasy baseball. These rankings may as well been co-written by George W. Bush because, if those 2011 fantasy baseball rankings were the bomb, this shizz is nu-cu-lar. None of this top 100 for 2011 fantasy baseball is meant to surprise. It’s just taking my positional rankings and putting guys in The Big Picture. You really should read each ranking post because the blurbs in this top 100 are on the skimpy side because there’s so many of them. Obviously at a hundred players, some guys just didn’t make it. About 200 or so, to be inexact. It’s okay, there will be a top 300 too. Shortly, Sloth, you’ll have your Baby Ruth. Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel. Print it out and take it to Mt. Please, blog, may I have some more?