Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rockies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Purple Row.

1) I really liked Chris Iannetta’s promise for 2010 going into November, then Olivo happened.  What kind of ABs do you see Iannetta now getting?  What kind of numbers?

Despite little statements here and there in the traditional media about Spring Training determining the amount of playing time for both catchers, it’s hard to see how Olivo will overcome Iannetta. Olivo hits for more power, but he also takes hacks at pitches that hit the ground in front of home plate. Iannetta knows how to get on base, and bringing up his low batting average in 2009 is not the way to start an argument on who should be the Rockies’ starting catcher. With a bit more normal BABIP, Iannetta’s average will rise to the .250-.260 range. A season similar to his 2008 campaign (.264/.390/.505) would cement his place as the Rockies’ starter well into the future.

2) The Rockies are a dream team of upside for fantasy baseball.  Besides Iannetta, there’s Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  The problem with lots of upside is usually managers just want producers in there — Barmes, Spilborghs, Smith, etc.  Will Young get 400 ABs without a 80 pound slab of deer meat falling from the sky onto Barmes?  Will Fowler and CarGo get 500 ABs each?  What kind of numbers do you see for these three in 2010? (Note: This question was asked before the Rockies announced Young would probably start the year in the minors.)

It’ll be hard for EY Jr. to gain that much playing time with Spilborghs and Smith able to backup the outfield corners and Barmes the starting second baseman. He’ll also receive a bit of a test from utility man Ryan Freel in Spring Training. And if the Rockies still have interest in Fernando Tatis, EY Jr. may find himself in the minors.

Fowler and CarGo are the starters in center and left, so 500 ABs for each isn’t out of the question. CarGo seems to be further along at this point with a strong final two months of the season. If you’re looking for stolen bases, Fowler should be a good flier (though he’ll also have a high number of CS), and you may just be surprised with what else he puts up.

3) I’ve got Rocky Mountain high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes for Ian Stewart. Tell me my meds haven’t got me thinking all crazy again.

Your meds haven’t messed with your thinking. . . well, not that much. Stewart’s going to be the starting third baseman without any competition since Garrett Atkins is plying his trade with the Orioles now. It’d be nice to see Stew strike out less and bring up his low line drive percentage (14.1%) in order to use that potential we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2003.

4)  Jorge de la Rosa’s FIP was 3.91 while he rocked a 4.38 ERA, so something was amiss.  Looks like it might be his strand rate, but his free passes sure don’t help.  His Ks are tantalizing for fantasy, but he also looks very risky.  What do you see for him in 2010?

I see a more confident De La Rosa taking the mound with numbers around the same as his 2009 ones. He’s going to be relied on heavily with Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook at the front of the rotation and Jeff Francis returning from a lost 2009 season.

5) Denver is home to hundreds of microbreweries, but what’s your favorite Rockies-themed beer?  A) Franklin Mor-Ales A) Helton’s Jesus Lager C) Stale Hawpes

Franklin Mor-Ales, because we still expect more from him, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Reds Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Reds Reporter.

1) This is the year Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey make good on all their promise, right? Please.  Lie to me, if need be.

I sure hope so.  Jay Bruce had somewhat disappointing season last year (0.223/0.303/0.470), certainly below most people’s expectations.  As a result, he seems to have slipped a bit in a lot of people’s estimations.  There were some other troubling aspects of his performance last year as well, like his 13% line drive rate (though this is not a particularly stable stat for most hitters).  Nevertheless, there is cause for optimism.  Most importantly, he’s entering his age-23 season with two years of MLB under his belt.  Not many players have done that and shown the kind of power Bruce has; that’s part of the reason that Barry Bonds is listed as his most similar player (by age) at baseball-reference.  Second, his BABIP was unbelievably low last season.  Part of that may be a function of his low line drive rate and excessively high fly ball rate.  But part of it may just be bad luck.  He’s a nice kid with sky-high talent, so everyone’s hoping he can take a big step forward next year.  To do so, however, he’s going to need to show much better plate discipline than he has in the past.  Sometimes he gets into funks where he seems to swing at just about anything the pitcher throws his way, and the result is a lot of weakly hit balls that will do his BABIP no favors.

As for Bailey…  He reportedly made a meaningful adjustment to his mechanics last offseason, and the result was a 3 mph uptick in his fastball velocity.  That’s massive, and it’s the main reason that I think what he showed over his last 9 starts (58 IP, 1.70 ERA, 53/24 K/BB) might be predictive of a quality season from him next year.  The only problem with that statement is that he had the same mechanical adjustment and velocity increase over his first 11 starts too (55 IP, 7.53 ERA, 33/28 K/BB).  But, maybe he just needed some time to find himself.  That’s what I keep telling myself anyway.

Clearly, this is a huge year for both of them.  With their talent, it’s probably not a “make or break” year.  But I think it’ll go a long way in telling us what sorts of careers these guys are likely to have.  … though I probably said the same thing last year.

2) My free Chinese calender says it’s The Year of the Tiger (and Tuesdays are “Lo Mein, Low Prices” Day).  But something tells me it’s The Year of the Votto.  What’s your prediction for him in 2010?

For some reason, I’ve always been a little skeptical on Votto, and he’s always proven me wrong.  But I think we’re going to see Joey Votto regress a bit.  I think he’s going to be a nice hitter, but the guy had an 0.372 BABIP last year.  That’s hard to maintain.  Most projections have him in the 0.300/0.385/0.525 range, and I’d be thrilled to get that from him again next year–especially if he can conquer some of the anxiety issues that surfaced last year and start 150+ games.  He was able to play through the anniversary of his father’s death over the last part of the season last year, so that’s a good sign.

3) Let’s play, Over/Under.  Next year, Drew Stubbs — 400 ABs, .240 average, 10 homers, 35 steals.  Feel free to expand on why you think he’ll be over or under on each.

Tough, as that’s about right.  I’ll take the over on the average and AB’s, and the under on the steals and homers.  I really don’t know what to expect from Stubbs, because his success in the majors last year–8 HR in 180 AB’s–goes completely against what his minor league numbers tell us to expect.  He “should be” a patient hitter who strikes out a lot and gets a lot of value from walks, speed, and fielding.  His fielding was as brilliant as advertised, and that along with the Taveras trade should keep him in the lineup as long as Chris Heisey doesn’t go crazy on us or something.  10 HR is clearly not out of his reach, and he’s always been a guy that the Reds expected to hit for at least decent power.  But I think pitchers are going to pitch him differently this year, which might prevent that kind of power success again.  He hit more than 7 home runs in a season just once in the minors, and that was in Low-A Dayton.  Steals…well, it will depend on how often he gets on base.  Dusty will likely hit him near the top of the lineup, though, because Dusty always leads off with a CF or SS…and Cabrera’s “a #2 hitter.”

4) In 2010, Johnny Cueto will pitch more like how he did in the 1st half or the 2nd half of 2009? And why?

My hope is like the first half, though the safe answer is somewhere in between.  One thing about Cueto last year is that he had pitched in both winter ball (against the Reds’ wishes IIRC) as well as the World Baseball Classic.  People already worried about his ability to hold up to workload given his fairly small frame (5’10″ 185lbs), and it’s reasonable to think that he might have just gotten really tired in the second half last season.  But it’s also the case that on June 1st, his ERA was 2.53 but his FIP was 4.02 and he had a 0.234 BABIP.  So part of it was just regression.  I hoping for 180 IP with a 4.25 ERA or so, but I’m not sure if I’ll get it.

5) When do you think we see Aroldis Chapman with the Reds?  Is there any truth to the rumor that Aroldis Chapman signed with the Reds because Dusty Baker’s concern for pitchers was most akin to Fidel Castro’s concern for human rights?

It’s hard to know.  I initially figured he’d start somewhere in A-ball and quickly work his way up if he showed he was ready.  But the initial reports from the Reds’ pitching coach were glowing, indicating much better command of his offspeed pitches, for example.  He might start the year in the high minors and be with the big club by mid-year.  Or, he might struggle.  It’s pretty hard to know without any minor league game data to work from.  I like tall left handers who throw 100 mph, though.

As for Dusty…Aside from the Harang stupidity in 2008, I think he’s been pretty good with the pitchers.  Especially the young ones.  Cueto, for example, never threw over 112 pitches last year, and only 5 times threw 110 or more.  Volquez threw 121 once in 2008, but never went over that mark.  I don’t think Dusty is breaking pitchers, at least not any more.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Crawfish Boxes.

1) Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom or Door Number 3?  Who’s going to be the closer for the majority of 2010 and what kind of numbers do you see them putting up?

Despite the gaudy contract he just signed (3 yr/$15 million) I don’t think that Brandon Lyon will end up closing that many games for the Astros. He is, as much as I and fellow Astro fans may want to deny, a slightly above average relief pitcher. He if plenty good enough to be a solid set up man, but ill suited in my estimation to be our regular closer.

Matt Lindstrom entered 2009 as the gas tossing Marlin closer. After injuring himself at the World Baseball Classic, Lindstrom never achieved the sort of success in South Florida that the Fish would have liked. A year later, Lindstrom isn’t penciled in as the Astros’ closer, but he is in the running. A 100 mph fastball and a decent slider are what Lindstrom offers.

Bottom line though, Lindstrom has never finished a ML season as a closer, and Lyon has had mixed results in the role. Doors 3 (Alberto Arias), 4 (Jeff Fulchino), or 5 (Samuel Gervacio) may have to be opened by season’s end. This might not be a bad thing, however, as all five have their strong points and offer the Astros an enviable amount of depth at the back end of the bullpen.

2) In the last two weeks of 2009, J.R. Towles hit 2 homers and batted over .400.  Before that, he was a Morganna-sized bust.  Can he finally breakout in 2010?

Wow! A Morganna reference! I’m 24, so you’re lucky I caught the reference. Anyways, J.R. Towles has amassed a grand total of 234 major league at bats in his entire career. So, it’s pretty unfair to call him a bust. That being said, J.R. is an athletic catcher who is very capable of being a 10 HR/10 SB guy if given the necessary at bats. He’s shown the willingness to walk in the minors, and hopefully that skill translates if given the opportunity in Houston. Sadly (for Towles), scouts believe 2008 first round draft pick Jason Castro is almost ready for full time action, so Towles may have to show his stuff early in 2010 for either a back up slot with the Astros once Castro is called up or possibly for a job with another club.

3) Hunter Pence turns 27 this year and looks on the verge of a breakout that even Ed Wade can’t stop.  What kind of year can he put up?  35 homers, 15 steals?  30/10?  Hopefully something better than Pedro Feliz?

I’m going to hold off on the 35 HR prediction, but 25 HR, 15 steals and a better BB:K ratio than in 2009 could certainly be in order. Couple his offense with his stellar defense in right field, and Pence is a slightly below All Star level talent who the Astros are happy to have in the lineup.

4) Last year, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman seemed to begin their descent over the hill.  Can they slam on the brakes and be top tier hitters again in 2010?

While both players are in their mid-30s, and both hit for a good bit of power, their games are fairly distinct from one another. Lance is a more patient hitter who is more helpful than a bag of sand on defense. Carlos is an unmotivated, high contact, low K, professional hitter in the Matt Stairs mold. Lance should be able to be a productive hitter for as long as he wants to play (and if you read between the lines with Lance, that may not be past his current contract). Carlos’ skills don’t translate well into old age, so Astros fans should hope Lee is able to hold on for as long as possible…at least until an AL club in need of a DH gets greedy and takes on his contract.

5) Tommy Manzella sounds like he should be in culinary school and Jeff Keppinger is the answer to the question, “Who is Brett Myers giving a wedgie to?”  So what becomes of shortstop?  Can Manzella offer anything besides a delicious Chicken Parm?

Chef Manzella is set to prepare a feast for the city of Houston this summer:

As an appetizer, Manzella will offer up quick hands and feet paired with an accurate throwing arm.

For the main course, Chef has been working hard on honing his batting stroke and toughening up for the long haul of a 162 game season.

And for dessert (everybody’s favorite), Tommy accents a slightly older vintage of player at third base (Pedro Feliz), giving the Astros the sort of defense that will save runs left and right.

All for an affordable price of….league minimum.

Jeff Keppinger was a pleasant surprise in 2009, and should get plenty of at bats in 2010 at 2B, SS and 3B. If not striking out was a game….he..um…would be good at it.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Cubs Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Hire Jim Essian.

1) Most of last year it looked like Soto was taking batting lessons from Barry Foote, but I still foresee a nice bounce back for Geovany Soto in 2010.  Are you as optimistic?  What do you see his 2010 looking like?

Now that Soto is no longer smoking weed and swallowing entire birthday cakes whole, I’m going to label myself as “cautiously optimistic” that his 2010 numbers will look more like his 2008 numbers than his 2009 numbers.  In 2008, Soto struck out twice as often as he walked.  Last year, it was closer to 1 1/2 times as often, which is encouraging.  But I have a penchant toward pessimism, so I give three warnings:

1. In 2008, Soto had guys like Mark DeRosa and Jim Edmonds hitting behind him, for the most part.  In 2009, he had dwarves like Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot, and mighty Sam Fuld hitting behind him.  After the success Soto had during his 2008 season, was the increase in his walk rate a matter of him getting pitched around more often during 2009?

2. In his entire professional career, Soto has had only two good years, 2007 in Iowa and 2008 in Chicago, when he had a very uncharacteristic power surge.  Are those seasons anomalies, or is this a matter of a guy “figuring it out”?

3. I won’t bother asking the weight loss questions that everyone has to ask thanks to Mark McGwire, but allegedly losing 40 pounds in three months is pretty dramatic.  Even if Soto did drop nothing but fat, how will that affect his power?  The fattest guys in my slow-pitch softball league hit the ball the farthest, so I will assume the exact same principle applies to baseball.
It sounds like Lou Piniella is going to bat Soto no higher than 7th in the lineup in 2010, meaning the only protection he’ll get behind him will come on days when Carlos Zambrano is pitching.  I will cautiously say Soto will rebound from his terrible 2009 year, hit 20 home runs, and drive in 75.

2) Pitching better in the majors than in the minors isn’t supposed to happen. Yet, Randy Wells pulled it off last year.  Can he repeat?

No, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be solid.  Wells was a great story last year, made greater by the fact that when the league started to figure him out and hit him, the Cubs had already decided to make the NL Central race uninteresting, so no one was watching anymore.  Basically each month that passed, Well’s K/BB ratio dropped, and his WHIP and opponents’ OPS rose.  Of course, Wells’ “worst” month was August, when, despite a Jason Marquis-esque 1.421 WHIP, he still managed to post a 3.69 ERA.

Don’t expect Wells’ ERA to be hovering around 3 at the end of next season, but I think you can reasonably expect it to be around 4, with somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 wins.  Remember Matt Clement?  I think Wells is him with fewer strikeouts.

3) Alfonso Soriano looked every bit of his Latin 34 last year.  Is there any hope that he has one last 30 homer, 20 steal season in him?

His days of stealing bases are as far behind him as his 37th birthday, but there’s no reason Soriano’s power shouldn’t be back.  The guy swings a tree trunk and tries to pull everything that’s thrown at him.  On the rare occasion when his chunk of tree makes contact with the ball, the ball goes far.  I’ve always thought Soriano is the type of hitter you want batting fifth in your lineup.  He has power, and with guys on base, there is absolutely no way he’s going to take a walk and let Mike Fontenot try to drive in a run.  Lou, apparently, feels differently, though, as it looks like Soriano is going to hit behind Marlon Byrd during the 100 games that he’s actually healthy.  Soriano should hit 30+ home runs, and with him finally down in the lineup where he should be, he could break the 80-RBI threshold for the first time as a Cub.

4) Like going into Karma in Seaside, the stench of Aramis from last year is foul.  Can he stay healthy in 2010 and get back to 30+ homers?

I hate you for making me look up what “Karma in Seaside” is.  Aramis is the best player on the Cubs, despite what the dopes wearing Theriot jerseys may say (I’ve seen GROWN MEN wearing them, for God’s sake).  Aramis started last year red-hot, and his injury was a freak occurrence.  It still burns me that the Cubs were too stupid to realize they were out of the NL Central race some time during August.  Aramis’ injury was bad, and if I had my druthers, Aramis would have been shut down and had shoulder surgery in August or September.  Instead, he finished the season and skipped surgery for cockfighting.  Oops.

Injury aside, Aramis’ swing is too line-drivey to ever make him a prodigious home run hitter.  I think he’ll hit 25+ home runs and lead the team in balls hit on the fly off the outfield wall.

5) Let’s say a half-faced Frank Langella offers you the chance to see the Cubs win the World Series but you’ll have to press a button.  Once pressed, it will force someone on the current 25-man Cubs roster or coaching staff to be fused at the hip to Milton Bradley for a year.  Whom would you choose and why do you hate them so much?

So, YOU’RE the person who saw The Box.  Can the Cubs re-sign Aaron Miles, just so I can include him in this deal?  No?  Then, without a doubt, I would choose Ryan Theriot for a few reasons.

1. I really want Starlin Castro to start at shortstop for the majority of the year.
2. I hate him.
3. He is a terrible baserunner.
4. He needs a running start to throw the ball on a fly to first base.
5. He is the most inexplicably beloved Cub since Augie Ojeda.
6. I hate him.

Can I push the button twice, so the Cubs sweep the White Sox in the Series at the cost of having Ryan Dempster fused to Milton’s other hip?  Doing an impression of Will Ferrell doing an impression of Harry Caray is not much of an impression at all, my friend.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Giants Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of McCovey Chronicles.

1) With the resigning of the largest Flying Molina Brother, Buster Posey doesn’t seem to have much of a chance to break camp with the club.  Do we see him in 2010 at all?  What do you expect of him?

If the Giants are in contention, and Molina is healthy, there’s no way Posey will start more than two or three game in the second half. Bruce Bochy really believes that inexperienced catchers are death to a team’s chances of winning. Starting Posey over someone who is familiar with the staff would be as negligent as starting only two outfielders.

But if the Giants are out of the race, and if Posey is doing well, he’ll probably start quite a few games down the stretch.

2) I’m not that optimistic on Nate Schierholtz.  Make me a believer.

It’s hard to be optimistic about a guy who has swung at pitches that have hit him — again, that’s pitch*es*, plural — but the projection systems like him well enough. PECOTA, CHONE, Bill James, ZiPS…they all seem to think he’ll be an average hitter. His minor league numbers are decent enough (.308/.355/.516), and he’s not a defensive liability at all, so he’ll get a chance.

If he ever controls the strike zone at all, he’ll be a nice player. You could write that, though, about 3,121 different players.

3)  I am optimistic about Jonathan Sanchez.  Give me your boldest prediction for Sanchez this year.

Boldest? Well, if you want to get nuts, ZiPS lists his comparable pitchers by age as Mark Langston, Sandy Koufax, and Randy Johnson — all LHP with huge K-rates who suddenly morphed into something fantastic during their mid-20s. That’s bold. In my wildest bouts of optimism, I’ll say 200 IP, 230 K, 90 BB, 3.30 ERA. I don’t think he’ll make it to 200 IP, though. He’s too wild, and I’m not sure how he’d hold up over that workload.

His ability to miss bats is pretty rare, though.

4) With the signing of 30-somethings like Molina, DeRosa, Huff, Rowand, and Renteria, do you think Sabean considers this a “youth movement?”  C’mon, bring back Vizquel and Randy Johnson.  Trade for Moyer.  What’s Julio Franco up to?

I think his commitment to the farm system came in the last two years, and you really need four or so to bear a lot of fruit. Other than Posey and Sandoval, the best of the Giants’ system aren’t above A-ball yet, so I can’t fault the guy for trying to build a win-now team without long-term contracts or blockbuster trades. Maybe the Giants could have been set for a longer period of time with a young guy like J.J. Hardy; maybe that would have cost Jonathan Sanchez. Maybe the Marlins were asking for Thomas Neal in exchange for Dan Uggla.

That said, I’m not wild about the stopgaps he did pick up. Huff is a clank-mitt, DeRosa is good but old, Molina is a horrid offensive player when you consider everything but home runs, and none of them are substantial improvements over the incumbents.  Sabean basically spent $18M this offseason for his version of cost certainty. If all of those guys fall flat on their faces, Sabean can say, jeez, how was I supposed to guess these proven players were going to disappoint? This is preferable to trying to explain how unproven players didn’t perform in his mind, and he thinks the season-ticket holders agree. Who knows? Maybe he has a point.

5) With Pablo Sandoval on a strict conditioning program this offseason, what kinds of things can we expect from him this summer?  A) Changes nickname to Kung Fu Hustle.  B) After a game winning homer, he gets a salad smashed into his face.  C) When he hits one out, less instances where announcers scream ‘Rerun’ instead of ‘Home Run.’

I think he’ll still be a little spherical, but hopefully he’ll be able to repeat his 2009 performance for years to come. I don’t think he’d mind the salad as long as it was followed by four more courses.