Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Cork ‘The Professor’ Gaines @ Rays Index.

1) Last year, the Rays offense was a stat projector’s nightmare.  BJ Upton (.241/11HRs) and Burrell fell well below projections while Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist came out of nowhere to put together some top-notch middle infield seasons.  In 2010, whom do you think will be the biggest hitting surprise and disappointments on the Rays?

Well, I don’t know how much of a surprise it will be, but I fully expect Pat Burrell and BJ Upton to rebound significantly from their ’09 seasons. Will Burrell hit 30+ home runs like he did in ’07-’08? Probably not. But supposedly he is healthier, and I have to believe that the embarrassment of ’09 and the lure of a new contract will drive him to be better. Like Burrell, Upton was never 100% in ’09. His shoulder has been an issue in each of the past seven seasons. If he can stay healthy and rediscover his ability to use the entire field, this could be his break-out season.

As for disappointments, I worry about Carl Crawford. There is going to be a lot written about his pending free agency and a lot of questions will be asked. Every time the Rays play on the road he is going to face the same questions. And it will be a circus whenever the Rays play the Yankees. And it will all erupt as we get closer to the trading deadline. Will he be able to keep that from affecting him mentally? That is a lot to ask for.

2) The Rays remain one of the more productive SB teams.  Give the SB over/under on the following:  Crawford – 45, BJ Upton – 40, Jason Bartlett – 20, Ben Zobrist – 15, Evan Longoria – 10, Carlos Pena – 1.

Crawford should be an easy over. If you look at his stolen base rates, he always struggles later in the season. The turf at the Trop takes its toll on his legs. This off-season he installed a new workout program to keep his legs fresh throughout the season.

I’m going to go under on Upton because there is a good chance he will spend the majority of the season batting in the 7-hole, with some decent bats in front of him. He just might not have the opportunities.

Bartlett: Over (Easy. He will leading off most days.)

Zobrist: Under (Should be close, but he is getting older, and was never that fast)

Longoria: Under (9 last year, but in only 9 attempts)

Pena: Over (Even Dioner Navarro had 5 last year. Everybody runs under JoeMa)

3) The Rays have been flush in #3-#5 starting pitchers over the past couple of years (including the traded Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel) – some with upside, some without.  For 2010 purposes only, do you any of the following quartet have a good shot at a sub-4.00 ERA and/or 150+Ks – Jeff Niemann, David Price, Andy Sonnanstine, and Wade Davis.

At their best, Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine will give you a 4.00 ERA and 150 Ks. Sonny is more likely going to be in Durham as the emergency starter, so he is a ‘no.” Niemann should be close to those numbers, but he seems to need extra rest a lot. Both Price and Davis will be free to throw 200 innings this year. Both will give you something closer to 170-180 Ks. I think Davis will be around a 4.00 ERA. The big question in my mind is Price. I think he can be anywhere from 3.50 to 4.50. And I wouldn’t be surprised at either end.

4) Which of the following prospects is the best option for ‘keeper’ leagues:  Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, or Sean Rodriguez?  Will any of them see extended playing in 2010?

In a keeper league I would want them in this order: Jennings, Davis, Rodriguez, Brignac.

I don’t think Davis will be anything better than a #3 starter, but he should be dependable in that role. He is the type of pitcher that you can stick in the lineup and you will have a good idea what he is going to give you each year. And he is durable enough that he should stay healthy. Jennings on the other hand, has a chance to be something very special. And if he can stay healthy, he will be.

Brignac is no longer much of a prospect with the bat. It will be decent, but never very good. Rodriguez on the other hand should hit for decent power at the big league level and he will see time at 2B, SS, 3B and in the OF.

Davis should give the Rays 32 + starts this season. Rodriguez will likely get 80+ starts this season and could be an everyday player in 2011. Brignac could platoon at second base but may never be an everyday player with the Rays. And as good as Jennings is, he is still relatively inexperienced. And the Rays value experience in their prospects. I would not be surprised if Jennings doesn’t make his debut until 2011.

5) Now that the Twins have moved out of the Metrodome, there’s no doubt that the Rays play in the ugliest field in baseball (feel free to argue though).  The Rays don’t even have the nicest stadium named after an orange juice brand (Minute Maid > Tropicana).  If the Rays were able to get a new stadium from the city, which of the following nods to the Rays illustrious past would make the best attraction:

a) Chuck Lamar’s Left Field Pawn Shop – Bring us your old and washed-up stuff and we’ll pay you too much for it!  Bring in unused useless items and we’ll swap them up for future gems.
b) Sweet Lou’s Tropical Bar & Lounge – Tired of going to bars and beating yourself up for not taking the hottest chick home?  Come to Sweet Lou’s where you can take a break and be congratulated for taking the 2nd ugliest girl in the place home.
c) Wade Boggs’ Chicken & Beer Shack – Chicken only available before games.  Beer only available after games.  During games, you can play arcade games preset to almost be at high score.  Throw in a token amount of time and celebrate your milestone!
d) Dewon Brazelton’s Pitching Area – See how fast you can throw!  Speed only credited if the ball is thrown outside the provided strike zone.
e) Rocco Baldelli’s Trattoria – Open periodically when the chef isn’t sick, injured, or tired.

Ha! Yes, the Rays need a new stadium, that is more because The Trop is located in a terrible spot. And yes it is ugly, but watching a game there is very underrated. The seats are comfortable. The sightlines are great. When the crowds are large (rare, I know) it is reminiscent of the Metrodome in the 80s and 90s (very loud, with a great homefield advantage).

And for the life of me, I have never understood why domes are taboo in baseball. We are talking about a sport that comes to a screeching halt in rain. And yet there are at least 6 teams in the NFL that play in domes and that is somehow OK.

Would I prefer to attend a game outside on a nice 80degree day with no humidity? Of course. But that ain’t St. Pete.

(Note:  Cork diplomatically didn’t choose one of the above so please feel free to choose one in the comments below.  We’ll make sure to forward the winner to Tampa Bay management.)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rangers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Adam J. Morris of Razzball’s and Princess Vespa’s favorite Ranger blog Lone Star Ball.

1) Aside from perhaps Matt Wieters, there wasn’t a player who failed to live up to their huge hype than Chris Davis.  Do you think he can manage a .260 / 25+ HR season whilst he strike out at a rate that would make Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds blush?

I don’t think a .260/25+ home run season is unreasonable for Davis, particularly given that he had a .238/21 home run season last year while playing roughly two-thirds of the season.  But realistically, hitting .260 with 25-30 home runs probably isn’t going to cut it for Davis to keep his job — he’s always going to strike out a lot, but he’s got to add some walks and put up power numbers more like he did in 2008.  I certainly think he’s capable of doing that — he hit at every level in the minors, hit in the majors in 2008, and doesn’t turn 24 until later this month.  But it is going to come down to improving his contact rate — at 150 Ks in a season, he is a potential All Star.  At 200-225 Ks in a season, he’s going to be out of a job.

2) We felt Josh Hamilton was overrated for fantasy baseball purposes last year but even we weren’t expecting just 336 ABs and 10 HRs.  Is expecting .280/25/100 too optimistic?

It is hard to say with Josh.  I’m thinking that we, as Rangers fans, need to think of him as another J.D. Drew, a guy who is going to make you crazy by missing time with what seem to be minor injuries, and who is always going to be dealing with nagging injuries.  If he plays 130 games this year, he should be good for 30+ homers, and with the Rangers moving him out of CF to save on the wear and tear, he should have a bounceback year.

3) Let’s play over/under with HR/SB:  Kinsler 25/25, Cruz 25/15, Borbon 10/30, Andrus 7/35.

4) It’s been, well, ever since a Rangers starting pitcher has been considered draftable in most fantasy baseball formats.  Convince us that 1 or more of the Rangers pitchers might be one of the top 50 pitchers this year.

For starters, the Ranger defense is going to help the pitchers’ ERAs.  The defense has been below average for most of the last decade, but in 2009, with guys like Elvis, Kinsler and Cruz providing plus defense, the Rangers had one of the best rates of converting balls in play into outs in the league.  That translates into better ERAs.  The two guys who I think are worth a look fantasy-wise are Rich Harden and Colby Lewis.  Harden, everyone knows about, a guy who has great stuff and hasn’t stayed healthy.  Lewis is an interesting case, a guy who went to Japan and was great, and who the projection systems all seem to think will translate well back in the U.S.  He’s a guy I think is worth a flyer on, because if he does translate what he did in Japan to the U.S., he’d be a steal.

5) What’s more likely to happen in 2010:

a) An in-game fight breaks out and Nolan Ryan jumps on the field and gives someone a headlock.

b) The Ranger catchers combine for less extra base hits than letters in their collective last names.

c) The new Ranger owners call up Tom Hicks and Dubya for ownership advice.

d) Vlad Guerrero and Josh Hamilton both play 140+ games.

I think c.  Dubya wasn’t a bad owner (although he was really just the figurehead for the money guys), and with Hicks, well, they might want advice from him to see what he did, so they can avoid his mistakes.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Marlins Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Marlin Maniac.

1) Cameron Maybin looks like an unrefined five-tool stud like a young Burt Reynolds.  Yay or nay?  15 homers and 20 steals in 2010, you taking the over or under for each?

I’d say a push on those numbers for Maybin. I think 15 homers is a very good possibility, but may be around his upper limit for this season. I have a feeling like he won’t be pushing the basepaths so much this year, so I may take the under on those 20 steals. His spot in the lineup will be low in the order, and probably won’t give a whole lot of SB opportunities.

2) Josh Johnson showed up on the Verducci list.  We have our own take on Verducci. I’m sure this gives you pause on Johnson in 2010, but how much?

I have a little concern for Josh Johnson, but not enough to label him a major injury risk. He did seem to tire at the end of last season, but the peripherals were solid into the late months, and I would not take any month splits too seriously anyway. I think you’re looking at another excellent year for JJ.

3) Ricky Nolasco’s K/BB is a thing of beauty.  His FIP last year says he’s extremely unlucky.  I think if he avoids injury, he can be great.  What’s your prediction for Nolasco for 2010?

My thoughts on Nolasco’s 2010 performance? 3.80 or so ERA, strikeouts on 22% of his batters faced, walks in 6% or so of his batters faced, and a very happy fantasy owner. I share your sentiment on Nolasco being very good in 2010.

4) Is Gaby Sanchez the opening day starter?  What kind of numbers do you see from him in 2010?

Gaby Sanchez is likely to be the Opening Day starter at first base, but I don’t expect a whole lot. Projections have him at around the same wOBA as Jorge Cantu, but he won’t have the RBI opportunities to rack up good numbers in that respect. I also don’t think he’ll play the full season, since I think the Marlins will find someone to hit righties occasionally for him. Expect some 450 PA and maybe 12 home runs and a solid average and OBP.

5) The Marlins seem to change their stadium’s name every year.  This year they will play at Sun Life Stadium (subject to change depending on post time), which was previously Land Shark Stadium, Dolphin Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, Pro Player Park and Joe Robbie Stadium.  What do you think the name of their 2011 stadium will be?  A) Mets South Stadium B) The Very Humidor  C) Obama’s Health Care Park D) Does it matter, no one goes anyway.

I’ll take the last choice. I’m going to a game or two this year, but I don’t live down there, so I have an excuse. Get out there and watch the Marlins at (insert name here) Stadium!

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Orioles Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies (don’t fret, NJ and Philly readers – this refers to Camden Yards and not the most dangerous city of 2004, 2005, and 2009 – Camden, NJ)

1) The fantasy baseball expectations of Matt Wieters last year were ridiculous – nothing short of Piazza’s 1993 rookie year (.318/81/35/112) would’ve satisifed them.  A year later, expectations are in check and our CHONE/ZiPS-based projection systems have him with a modest line of:  .286/55 R /14 HR /63 RBI.  Do you think he’ll surpass any of those levels and, if so, by how much?

I think those expectations are pretty spot-on, as I have him projected to hit .287/.351/.455 right now. The RBI and R has a lot to do with where he hits in the batting order, which I’m not sure of.  I do think he has a chance to break out, but am not really looking for that to happen for at least another year. Adjusting to hitting major league pitching is hard – especially when one also has to adjust to catching major league pitching

2) The Orioles have a number of starting pitcher prospects.  Rank the following in order based on your 2010 expectations:  Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman.

Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman, Berken. I think Matusz can be an above average starting pitcher already; Bergesen around average; Tillman and Berken more of like 4/5 starters, with the latter maybe seeing some time in the bullpen as well (and the former have the much higher ceiling).

3) Which of the Orioles outfielders will have the best year at the plate: Nick (Sparkakis!) Markakis, Adam Jones, or Nolan Reimold?

Markakis. He’s the only one who I think can hit .300, put up a .380 OBP, and slug close to .500. I don’t think Jones or Reimold will get to any of those marks in 2010 – and especially not all three.

4) Brian Roberts’ SB totals have gone from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past 3 years.  Over/under 30 SBs in 2010?

I’ll take under 30, especially since he already has missed some time this spring with back issues. Roberts is getting into his mid 30s, so while he should still be able to steal quite a few bases just based on smart baserunning, I don’t think his speed will stay top notch for that much longer.

5) Since you follow the Orioles, we assume you live in the Baltimore area and, thus, must have watched ‘The Wire’.  So, which Wire character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?  (personality vs. physical)  If you haven’t seen the Wire, please explain yourself.

I do live in Baltimore, and I have seen The Wire, but only the first season (and a couple episodes of the second). It was a good show – and I can definitely tell why people consider it one of the best TV shows of all time – but it just didn’t grab me that strongly. I’m hoping to come back to it at some point. I guess in light of that, I can’t really answer the question well. I think Angelos has finally allowed the baseball people to be in charge, which is for the best.

Rudy:  Sheeeeeeeettt, I would’ve thought all Baltimoretonians were required to watch The Wire and all Barry Levinson + Jon Waters movies.  The easy answer to “Which ‘The Wire’ character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?” is The Greek from Season 2 as he 1) also owns a big organization, 2) works best when he keeps a low profile and let’s lieutenants take care of the day-to-day and 3) is of Greek descent (Angelos is Greek-American).  Alternatives answers include Mayor Clarence Royce (profited off civil service – Angelos made his money in class-action suits – and ran the city into the ground), Police Commissioner Ervin Burrell (misran the Police Department and put too much faith in bad lieutentants like Deputy Rawls), and drug kingpin Avon Barksdale (gets a little too overexcited when someone disrespects him by encroaching on his territory *cough* Washington Senators *cough*)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Pirates Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?

1) Garrett Jones’s 2009, small sample talking or sign of things to come in 2010?

Can it be somewhere in between? On one hand, he hit 21 homers in 82 games and besides an early surge, he was fairly consistent over that time. Things like that don’t happen by complete accident. On the flip side, he’s played almost 600 games in Triple-A and his OPS there is below .800. That’s also not an accident. Which is to say, I’m willing to concede that Jones made some kind of step forward in 2009 and that he’s a better player than I ever expected, but he’s also not going to hit 40 homers in a season either. At least, I don’t think he is.

2) Andrew McCutchen, who Razzball has affectionately nicknamed The Dread Pirate, had a tremendous rookie year.  I’ve sung my praises for what we should expect in 2010.  What do you expect?

First off, I love that nickname and may, erm, pirate it for my own uses. Secondly, I’d expect maybe a little bit of a sophomore slump for ‘Cutch, if only because his .471 slugging percentage in 108 games with the Pirates was higher than his SLG in any full season in the minor leagues. There’s always the chance that 2009 represented a big step forward for McCutchen (his numbers at Triple-A were actually a little better than his numbers in Pittsburgh before his promotion), but if he tapers off to about a .400-.430 SLG with 12-15 homers for the full season, I wouldn’t be surprised. Like with Garrett Jones, it’s one of those things that we’re just going to have to watch and see.

3) Do you have any hope for Andy LaRoche or are the Pirates biding their time for Pedro Alvarez?

Maybe I’m crazy, but I do still have hope for LaRoche. He thumped the ball in May (.330/.411/.457) and September (.313/.359/.552) and while his final line wasn’t all that great, it was a big improvement over his struggles with the Dodgers and Pirates prior to 2009. He’s also got a good glove at third base, and the club seems hopeful that if Alvarez is able to stay at third base for a while, that LaRoche will be able to move to second, where his bat should play much better than it does at a corner.

4) Steve Pearce has 8 homers and a .304 OBP through 342 major league ABs over the course of 3 years.  Will he ever breakout or will Jones play first to make room for Church vs. righties?

The Pirates’ right field/first base situation is a pretty complicated one heading into this season. I think the team’s default position is to let Jones play right and give Jeff Clement the first shot at first base, then adjust based on how Clement performs, how Andy LaRoche is hitting at third base, where Pedro Alvarez is, whether Akinori Iwamura is still in a Pirate uniform by mid-season, and how Jose Tabata develops. Pearce seemingly gets lost in the shuffle there, except he’s the only right-handed player (besides Tabata, who I think probably needs a full season at Triple-A) in the mix. He has a pretty big platoon split in the minors (.991 OPS vs. lefties, .831 vs. righties) and so I think there’s some value in him spelling Jones, Clement, Church, Alvarez, or whoever at one of those position against tough lefties. I think his chances at playing every day are pretty much done, though (remember that he was only really a prospect because he was in the Pirates’ system in the first place, his one great year came because he was sort of bafflingly asked to repeat High-A after a good showing there the year before, and when he hit his way up to a September call-up that season McCutchen and the shell of Neil Walker were the Bucs’ only real prospects at that time, which caused people to get excited about him). And now my longest answer is about Steve Pearce. Great. This is life as a Pirate fan.
5) Back in the 80s, many Pirate players found themselves embroiled in baseball’s cocaine scandal of 1985.  It turned out that the players came upon the Devil’s Dandruff from a connection of their mascot, the Parrot.  Then when the trial came, the Parrot talked, turning state’s evidence and snitching out many Pirate players.  Nothing would ever happen like this now because:  A) The Parrot knows his place.  B) Since the 80s better, undetectable drugs have been designed to replace cocaine, like Red Bull. C) Lastings Milledge can’t stand snitches.

The answer has several components. One is that the Pirates have brought a cartoonish Pirate mascot (the Jolly Roger) into the fold, and he presumably has guns to keep the Parrot in line. The second is that no one on the team makes enough money to support a drug habit at the moment. The third is that it’s not so much that Lastings Milledge hates snitches, as I think he and Andrew McCutchen should film a low-budget cable access buddy-cop show that shows on local TV at 1 AM. I would watch this show.