1) Last year, the Yankees’ and Mets’ new stadia (or ‘stadiums’ for the bourgeois) had a huge impact on hitter values.  Any word on whether Target Field will lead to some hitter bargains?

It looks like Target Field will actually be more of a neutral park, which favors neither hitters nor pitchers, but there are a couple interesting aspects: there is a ton less foul territory than there was at the Metrodome, and outfielders will actually be able to spot the baseballs in the sky as opposed to losing them in the whiteness of the dome.  Also, it’s a three-foot longer trip to straight-away center field, which houses a few black spruce trees, so I suppose that makes it more of a pitcher-friendly stadium.  I wonder how often it will snow there?

2) Joe Mauer turned on the power last year hitting one less HR (28) than he had in 2006-2008.  He hit a ridiculous 16 of those HRs to the opposite field.  The average on the projection systems is about 20.  What do you think – over, under, or push on 20 HRs in 2010 for Mauer.

Over. He missed the entire month of April last season, and there is nothing — including his .429 batting average and .600 slugging percentage so far this Spring — which says he will under-perform compared to 2009.  I say he nails 30 bombs and 100 RBI this year.  And then proposes to me.

3) The Twins OF of Cuddyer/Span/Delmon Young with some Kubel thrown in projects to be rather awful defensively.  Any concerns on how this might impact the young Twins pitchers?

4) Give me the over/under/push on the following:
Morneau 29 HRs — over
Kubel 80 RBI – push
Span 25 SB – push
Punto 1 HR — under (seriously. He’ll have negative 1 probably)
Slowey 150 IP — over
Liriano 4.50 ERA — under

5) Ron Gardenhire has an understandable weakness for light-hitting infielders given he was one during his playing career.  Are you concerned he might gillooly Orlando Hudson or JJ Hardy to make sure he can get both Nick Punto and Brendan Harris into the lineup?

I hope Gardy doesn’t mess with the middle infield, I like it just the way it is.  Punto and Harris are just going to have to deal with being mediocre at best, and thank their lucky stars they are even on a big league roster.  And then they can high five each other on their way back to the bench during the platoon switch.

1) Alcides Escobar seems to me like a cheap shortstop that can provide steals (and obviously defense), which works for fantasy baseball (the steals part).  What’s your most realistic prediction for him in 2010?

It’s hard not to get excited about Alcides Escobar, who has developed a reputation as an absolute wizard defensively and looked very good at the plate in a brief audition for the Brewers last fall, hitting .304/.333/.368 and becoming just the second Brewer ever to collect 40 hits in his first 138 major league plate appearances. With that said, Escobar’s bat likely isn’t quite that good in the long term. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his 2009 Major League Equivalent line at .259/.301/.345, and that’s probably a fair expectation for his 2010 line.

As for steals, that will likely depend on his position in the lineup. His low OBP and power would suggest he should hit toward the bottom of the order where he could run wild, but the Brewers’ lack of better options may force him into the second spot in the lineup, where he’d have to be much more careful running in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. He’s stolen 80 bases in 100 attempts over the last two seasons, so he’ll certainly have some success on the basepaths if given the opportunity.

2) If you look in the dictionary next to the idiom, “You can’t steal 1st,” you’ll find Carlos Gomez, assuming your dictionary has pictures and baseball idioms.  Cheap steals can provide value in fantasy, so Gomez needs to be looked at (unfortunately).  How many at-bats do you see getting with his .230 average, .232 OBP and a man named, Jody, behind him?

Carlos Gomez has two things going for him at this point: He has a reputation as a very good defender, and the Brewers traded away a well known and moderately well liked contributor (J.J. Hardy) to get him. Those two factors will give him every opportunity to prove he can carry the load in center field, even if his bat never comes to life.

There’s clearly still plenty of room for growth with Gomez, who only turned 24 in December, and there are some reasons for optimism: He hit .275/.373/.374 during the regular season in the Dominican Winter League. However, his numbers plummeted during the postseason and he was left off his team’s Caribbean World Series roster with flulike symptoms.

If Gomez proves he’s not the answer, Jody Gerut is the likely candidate to absorb some of his playing time. Gerut looked very good in consistent ABs down the stretch last season, and is a capable defensive center fielder. Jim Edmonds also seems to think he’s coming to camp to prove he can still handle center field: if he can do so in an acceptable fashion, it’s possible he could see some starts out there.

3) Corey Hart’s 2009 was obviously the part of the Behind of the Music where he’s washed up and sniffing glue in the back of the Arby’s parking lot.  Can 2010 be the uplifting turnaround or will he hit rock bottom, turning tricks for glue money?

I’m not very optimistic about Corey Hart, who has done very little over the past season and a half to prove he’s the same player that hit .289/.327/.504 and earned a spot on the All Star Team in the first half of 2008. His .263 second half OBP was one of the factors that nearly cost the Brewers their 2008 playoff appearance. Before the 2009 season, he said all the right things about taking pitches and showing more patience and improved his OBP to .335, but lost over 40 points on his slugging percentage and still looked absolutely lost at the plate in key situations.

For a very gifted athlete, Hart’s defensive abilities are also below average, and he frequently relies on his good speed to cover the fact that his instincts aren’t good at all. As age slows him down, his defensive abilities will likely shift from “below average” to “intolerable.”

Finally, Hart has done himself no favors by saying negative things publicly about Brewer fans and taking the team to arbitration this season. His declining performance, negative attitude toward fans and escalating salary have combined to make him one of the team’s less popular players.

4) Casey McGehee screams to me “platoon player,” which is pretty annoying if you’re hungover.  Can Gamel work his way into the lineup or is his glove just too ugly?

Casey McGehee was one of 2009′s great surprise stories and earned the opportunity to play every day in 2010. He’s certainly a candidate to regress, but he’ll be given every chance to prove his performance in 2009 was not a fluke. With third base occupied, Mat Gamel will likely open 2010 in AAA, and when he returns (and where he plays) will likely be determined by McGehee’s health and performance.

In limited major league opportunities in 2010, Gamel did not look as bad as advertised defensively. He may never win a Gold Glove out there, but I would argue against the common perception that he *needs* to be moved off third base. With that said, McGehee is under team control for five more seasons, so if he produces Gamel will have to be moved to another position or another team to spend significant time in the majors.

5) What would be the most fitting pun-nicknames:  A) Prince “Not A Good” Fielder B) Rickie “On the DL 6 to 8″ Weeks C) Manny “My Control is Sub-” Parra

Fielder’s defense is actually much better than advertised. Like Gamel, he’ll likely never win a Gold Glove, but Fielder was close to league average defensively last season, and for a player of his build and offensive talent, league average defense is pretty impressive. He also seems to display good instincts and make the occasional great play.

As for Rickie Weeks, I’ve heard all the jokes (and made some of my own) about his durability, but the injuries he’s best known for (his wrists) have been season enders, not 6-8 week bumps in the road.

That leaves Manny Parra, and if I have to choose one of the three, I’ll go with him. 2010 could be a pivotal year in his career: At 27 years old, he could still bounce back, have a nice season under Rick Peterson, and become a pitcher a team depends on for another 5-10 years. If he posts another season like 2009, though, he could end up getting non-tendered and scouring the market for a minor league deal.

Parra is almost a lock to win a spot in the rotation in spring training, and his long term success or failure will go a long way towards determining the kind of season the Brewers have.

1) Word out of P.A. is that Ryan Madson will open the season as the closer. What’s the over/under for saves for Madson in 2010? What torturous device would you like to put Lidge over or under?

I will set the over/under for Madson saves at 8 in 2010, and then I will turnaround and bet $10,000 on the OVER (-110) because I think he’ll get somewhere in the mid-20′s. (Lidge blows)

And since he’s such a religious buff, I’d like to put Brad Lidge OVER the Judas Chair.

2) With Crapolanco taking over the 2 hole in the lineup, what kind of numbers do you see him putting up in 2010?

haha, crap in the 2-hole. Good one.

If there’s one thing you can say about Placidome is that his head is gigantic. If there are two things it’s that his head is gigantic and he’s consistent. He doesn’t strike out often, he walks even less, he doesn’t hit homers, or knock runners in. But if your fantasy league hands out points for advancing runners with a productive out or committing errors in the field, Polanco’s your guy.

3) Last year we asked you, “Cole Hamels avoided injuries and got above 30 starts in 2008. But does the 262 innings in 2008 worry you? Can he stay healthy in 2009?” You were, um, a bit optimistic. Now’s your chance to go double or nothing. 2010 — bounce back or thank God we got Halladay?

I’m still optimistic, yeah. The thing that worries me is once guys like Jayson Stark and Buster Olney started calling him a sleeper, he immediately became overvalued. He still hasn’t perfected a third pitch (his curveball is suspect and his cutter gets mocked by Roy Halladay’s cutter), his fastball isn’t what it was in 2008, and when a batter can fight off the fastball and sit on the change, he’s in trouble.

His velocity was in the mid-80′s when he finally started throwing last spring training. At least it’s up to the low 90′s this year. If he can get that up a few more mph’s, it makes his change that much more effective and he can get away with that shitty curveball of his.

I say bounce back year, just not too bouncy.

4) J.A. Happ was one of the luckiest pitchers last year, according to sabermetrics. Are you concerned about his 2010 or do you think sabermetrics is just nerdy way of saying, “I can’t get laid?”

It says a lot about Jay Happ that he was a 12 game winner with the best ERA among Phillies starters and he only started ONE postseason game last year. And that was a -10° game in Colorado where he lasted a measly three innings.

Happ was lucky last year. It always seemed like he was working himself out of a 2-on, 1-out jam every couple innings, but he has a the kind of delivery where he hides the ball well and induces a lot of bad swings from guys. He’s a good fourth starter who will win double-digit games just because the Phillies offense is so damn good.

Although I don’t see him duplicating his under-3.00 ERA from last year.

I got nothing against sabermetrics, either. Granted, you’ll never find me plugging stats into a formula to figure it out myself, but if something interesting is presented to me in a easy-to-read manner, I’m all ears.

That’s not to say that I can’t make fun of their pasty skin and nerdy glasses behind their back, because I do that as well.

5) With Myers gone, which Philly is being relied on to keep their pimp hand strong?

Charlie Manuel, yo. That guy don’t take no fuss.

1)  I’m actually pretty high on David Aardsma.  Others, not so much.  Lots of people are predicting a regression of sorts.  Which side do you fall on?

I like Aardsma, and I like that the M’s were able to recognize his potential and land him for nothing. With that said, while I expect him to remain a pretty good reliever, you have to expect some regression. I mean, you have to, right? He had one of the most extreme flyball rates in baseball and somehow only managed to allow four home runs. That’s not gonna last, especially when you keep in mind all the balls to the track he surrendered. Safeco and the defense will help him, but I could easily see his HR rate doubling. Best case, he survives the season looking only a little worse. More likely, he starts making people a little nervous, and there end up being whispers about Brandon League. With the fly balls and the walks, Aardsma kind of lives on the edge.

2)  I forget where I read it, but someone (I think it was a person, might’ve been a robot) said a great thing about Milton Bradley.  I’m paraphrasing — shoot, I can’t even remember where I read it — notice the Mariner fans’ excitement the day after the Mariners got Milton Bradley.  A year ago, the Cubs fans were excited about Bradley too. At one point, the Rangers were excited about Bradley.  The Padres were excited.  And so on.  Yet, it never ends well.  How will the Milton Bradley era in Seattle end?  What do you see from him this year?

I’d say it ended fairly well in Texas and Oakland, and San Diego has nothing but nice things to say about him. But anyway, it’s important to recognize the difference in environment in Chicago vs. Seattle. Here we don’t have that media, that manager, and those fans. Here we have Junior. If any situation is right for Bradley, it’s this one. I don’t expect him to remain perfectly healthy, and he’s not going to be a source of major power, but there’s no reason why he can’t end up at or around his career averages barring a mental meltdown. Better real-life player than fantasy player, probably.

3)  F-Her, Cliff Lee — Sweet!  Then what?  Give me what you think the Mariners rotation will be.

Obviously, everyone focuses on the 1-2, for good reason. Behind the two aces, we’ll go with Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and one of Jason Vargas/Doug Fister/Luke French/Garrett Olson. That’s the four-man competition taking place right now in Arizona. You’re a fantasy site, right? In that case, the only one of these guys worth considering is RRS, as he’s poised to take wonderful advantage of the ballpark and the defense yet again. If Jarrod Washburn can do what he did in 2009, RRS could, too. You can keep your eye on Snell, I suppose, but I’d keep an eye from afar.

4) We have our own thoughts on Verducci, but he did flag Felix Hernandez.  You have any concerns or would you like to tell Verducci where to shove his flag?

I actually discussed this very topic here on my own site.  (Note from Grey:  That’s actually a great article about Verducci that I think everyone should read.)  Bottom line: Verducci’s heart is in the right place, but his analysis is flawed, and the people who’ve investigated his theory haven’t uncovered an effect. So there’s no evidence that there’s anything to this. I will always be a little worried about Felix, but that’s because pitching is dangerous, and he’s my baby. I don’t think we have any reason to believe that his 2009 workload will have a negative impact on his 2010 performance.

5) If the Mariners GM, Jack Zduriencik, started an office fantasy baseball league, what would be the most non-traditional fantasy stat? A) UZR B) Speed to first C) Pitcher First Pitch Strikes D) FRAGU — Fielding Runs Against Glove Upside E) BABIP@SLVSAERLP – Batting Average for Balls In Play @ Sea Level vs. Arbitration-Eligible Replacement-Level Players

Probably OBP. Z isn’t a stats guy. Z is just smart enough to hire stats guys. If Tony Blengino started the pool, though, then we’re talking acronyms with things that aren’t even letters anymore.

1) There’s been a lot said/typed/blogged about the Red Sox offense having a little less punch than years past.  Last year, the Red Sox had 3 players above 99 Runs (Pedroia – 115, Bay – 103, Youk – 99) and 3 above 94 RBIs (Bay – 119, Ortiz – 99, Youk – 94).   Do you think any Red Sox will scale those Runs/RBI levels this year?

I don’t think you have to worry about the runs totals.  This Red Sox team is built every season to do one thing better than any other team in baseball: GET ON BASE.  There’s a lot of questions that RBI totals will suffer, but if hitters are reaching base, guys will drive them in.  Remember all those guys Vernon Wells drove in a few seasons ago?  You only get to do that with opportunities.  The Red Sox will have many opportunities.

The Red Sox were 2nd in the league in OBP and 2nd in wOBA.  That 2009 team was a very talented offensive ballclub, even with dysfunction at third base and shortstop for the entire year.   While Jason Varitek had a hot April, he quickly flamed out as well.

After you factor in the regression of the current 2009 holdovers and the additions to the club (Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro), the Red Sox don’t look that much worse offensively.  Is someone going to hit 40 homeruns? Probably not.  But if the top of the order continues to get on base, there’s no reason why Martinez, Youkilis, and Ortiz don’t have enough opportunities to drive in 100 runs a piece.  CHONE projects this Red Sox team to score 5.3 runs per game, good for 858 over the season.  Only 9 runs less than the World Series winning 2007 team that had two prime time 40 HR players.  But the Boston media says our offense is terrible.  I guess I should believe them instead with all the data they have to back up their claims.  Right.

Ellsbury and Pedroia shouldn’t have a problem topping 100 runs a piece, unless Jacoby makes all the Pink Hats cry and proves his OBP bump was a giant fluke.  If Martinez is spelled enough behind the plate and gets a big chunk of time at 1B/DH, he could do it with enough at bats.  Youk will most likely need a 30+ HR season to eclipse 100 runs, but shouldn’t have a problem leading the RBI charge and driving in 100 on his own.  Losing Bay won’t affect specific player totals as much as Jon Heyman tells us so.

2) Ditto the first question’s opener regarding the Red Sox improved defense.  How much of an impact ERA/WHIP-wise do you think this has for the Sox staff?

Any time a team’s defense improves, you’re only doing the pitching staff a favor.  This is why Scott Kazmir continued being called an “ace” when he had that ridiculous tampa bay defense behind him the past 1.5 years.  It’s the same reason why Jarrod Washburn suddenly became a star with Franklin Gutierrez’s black hole of a glove bailing him out in center…and then he goes to Detriot and goes down in a fiery blaze of nerd rage.

Once the ball touches the bat, the pitcher has been removed from the resultant outcome.  With the exception of the ever confusing antics of Tim Wakefield who seems to be immune to statistical studies and logic like Tom Cruise and the Church of Scientology, the Boston pitching staff should have a slight blanket-drop in their opposing BABIP.  However, the park dimensions still won’t favor flyball pitchers they way Petco or Safeco does.  Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, both strong ground ball pitchers, should benefit the most from this defensive improvement, and would be the most likely candidates of favorable returns showing up in their ERA and WHIP.

3) Can you gives us the over/under/push on the following:  Ortiz – .260/25 HRs, Beltre .275/15 HRs, Pedroia .307/15 HRs, Youk .280/25 HRs, Jason Veritek .220/7 HRs, Ellsbury 50 SBs.

Ortiz – Push/Over
If Papi gets 600 ABs, I think he still has a shot at 30 HRs.  Even when considering his atrocious first two months, his power numbers came back strong to finish out 2009.  Our colleague Aaron did a piece on this, and I tend to agree with him.  His increasing strikeouts give me pause about the batting average though.

Beltre – Over/Push
I think this is an easy call.  Beltre was walloping 25 HRs in Safeco before he almost neutered himself last year.  While Fenway does reduce homeruns very slightly compared to average, it’s still more favorable for power production than Safeco.  Beltre should get right to 25 HR, doubtful he’ll hit much more than that, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him add 30-40 Fenway doubles off the wall.  I’d expect a line similar to his 2007 production, maybe a tad higher with the Monster helping his batting average.

Youk – Push/Over
Youk’s increasing strikeout rate tells me two things.  First, he’s more a slave to a fluctuating BABIP, that cruised up to .359 last year.  While it’s not the first time he’s done it, the less I see a player putting balls into play, the more I expect their BABIPs to be closer to the average, regardless of high line drive rates.  I will, however, look at his increasing K rate as him striving to drive more balls out of the park, and expect his HR/FB%, which has increased 3 straight years, to continue to give him 25-30 HR power.  I’ll say this is the year Youk finally hits 30, but not much more.

Pedroia – Over/Push
After a 30 point drop in BABIP from his 2007 and 2008 line, Pedrioa only hit .297 last year.  A 10 point improvement doesn’t seem out of the picture, especially when his drop in BABIP also coincided with a drop in strikeouts.  Less strikeouts means more balls in play, which means more possible “seeing-eye singles”, at least more than you get from a strikeout, which is zero.  15 homeruns seems to be Pedroia best aiming point for homeruns, and I’ll agree with that.  I don’t think he’ll ever have the power potential Robbie Cano has, even without the rocket shoes Yankee Stadium gives left handed batters.

Varitek – Under/Under
Varitek will be lucky if he gets in 50 games.  There’s no reason to put his bat in the lineup, and if you’re giving Victor a break, one of the younger defensive minded catchers in the sox system would be a better bet.  I guess if you have you worry about drafting Varitek in your fantasy league, you’re probably Omar Minaya.  Even if Varitek plays more than he should, I’d steer clear of him anyway.  As much as I love the guy, I don’t want him anywhere near the batter’s box.

Ellsbury – Over
50+ shouldn’t be a problem for Jacoby.  He could go over 70 again if he actually batted 7th-8^th, but I won’t get into my disdain for Ellsbury in the #1 spot instead of Drew.

4) The Red Sox have 3 starters that are arguably in the top 20 fantasy SPs in Beckett, Lester, and Lackey and two interesting later-round picks in Buchholz and Dice-K.  Whom of this bunch do you think will be the best and worst values based on their expected draft picks?

Lester and Dice-BB, respectively.

I’m still amazed at the lack of Cy Young support Lester got last year, all due to a fluky BABIP-induced April.  If you put his statistics up against the 2009 lines of Sabathia, Verlander, Hernandez, and Halladay, it’s difficult to tell them apart.  I even did it for you a long time ago!

Lester seems to be the last pitcher picked in the tier after Lincecum / Grienke.  I find it surprising.  I always wait on starters anyway, and in a redraft league, he’d be my first target.  His ADP is the end fo the 5^th round right now, which is basically the similar production your paying for those aforementioned players 2 rounds up.  Draft your offense heavy and wait for Jon.  The value you pick up by getting that offensive player in Round 3 instead of Sabathia (Votto!) justifies this enough for me.

I really won’t say much about Dice-BB.  Until a pitcher walks less than 5 batters per nine, he belongs nowhere near anyone’s fantasy team.  You can’t predict him having an ERA anomaly again like 2008, so why waste the draft pick on it? The Casey Kelly-era can’t come soon enough in this town.

5) Jim Rice was one of the more controversial HOF nominees if you define ‘controversy’ by causing the baseball bloggerati and sabermatricians to convulse (me included).  What’s your opinion on his HOF credentials?  What do you think Theo Epstein’s would be?  And if you could swap him out for another more deserving ex-Red Sox player, whom would it be?

A disclaimer: I love Jim Rice.  He was one of my favorite players when I was a kid.  Back when you didn’t need season tickets to sniff Fenway’s gates for less than a 300% markup, my father used to sit us down on the 3rd base line so I could get a good view of him.  He’s outspoken, ballsy, and was a spectacular person, even though he was rough around the edges with the Boston media.  Then again, if I played for the Red Sox, I’d probably react to the CHB the way Rice and Carl Everett did.

As much as I love Jim Rice, I know he’s in that bottom rung of Hall of Famers.  The guys that eventually get in because they’ve been around so long, or because someone says he was a “feared” hitter enough times to make people believe it.

Personally, my Hall of Fame standards are high.  I abhor the thought of a “Hall of Very Good”, but I also understand that in practice enshrinement into the Hall is a subjective matter, and the amount of equations I throw at people won’t change a thing.  At this point, I figure it’s more important to focus on making cases for players who have been unfairly snubbed rather than unfairly enshrined.  Lame cop out? Probably, but it’s not like you can kick someone out of the Hall.  I’d rather not waste my energy complaining about them.

I think my opinion would be the same as Epstein’s.  “For everything Jim Rice did for the Red Sox, we’re happy to see him be honored as a great player in our sport.”  Then I’d cry myself to sleep in my math books, disgusted at my politically correct PR stunt.

If I could/had to swap him out, it’d be for my other favorite player in my younger years, Dwight Evans.  Overall, just as productive at the plate(127 OPS+ to Rice’s 128 OPS+), but an absolutely amazing fielder.  From what I remember, he was Rice at the plate, but played right field with as much skill and grace as JD Drew does, albeit with a much superior mustache than the one Drew sports from time to time.

(Note from Rudy:  Sorry Razzball readers that I went ‘serious’ instead of our usual facetious with the last question.  I just had to ask a Sox fan about Jim Rice’s HOF credentials.)

1) Last year, the Rays offense was a stat projector’s nightmare.  BJ Upton (.241/11HRs) and Burrell fell well below projections while Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist came out of nowhere to put together some top-notch middle infield seasons.  In 2010, whom do you think will be the biggest hitting surprise and disappointments on the Rays?

Well, I don’t know how much of a surprise it will be, but I fully expect Pat Burrell and BJ Upton to rebound significantly from their ’09 seasons. Will Burrell hit 30+ home runs like he did in ’07-’08? Probably not. But supposedly he is healthier, and I have to believe that the embarrassment of ’09 and the lure of a new contract will drive him to be better. Like Burrell, Upton was never 100% in ’09. His shoulder has been an issue in each of the past seven seasons. If he can stay healthy and rediscover his ability to use the entire field, this could be his break-out season.

As for disappointments, I worry about Carl Crawford. There is going to be a lot written about his pending free agency and a lot of questions will be asked. Every time the Rays play on the road he is going to face the same questions. And it will be a circus whenever the Rays play the Yankees. And it will all erupt as we get closer to the trading deadline. Will he be able to keep that from affecting him mentally? That is a lot to ask for.

2) The Rays remain one of the more productive SB teams.  Give the SB over/under on the following:  Crawford – 45, BJ Upton – 40, Jason Bartlett – 20, Ben Zobrist – 15, Evan Longoria – 10, Carlos Pena – 1.

Crawford should be an easy over. If you look at his stolen base rates, he always struggles later in the season. The turf at the Trop takes its toll on his legs. This off-season he installed a new workout program to keep his legs fresh throughout the season.

I’m going to go under on Upton because there is a good chance he will spend the majority of the season batting in the 7-hole, with some decent bats in front of him. He just might not have the opportunities.

Bartlett: Over (Easy. He will leading off most days.)

Zobrist: Under (Should be close, but he is getting older, and was never that fast)

Longoria: Under (9 last year, but in only 9 attempts)

Pena: Over (Even Dioner Navarro had 5 last year. Everybody runs under JoeMa)

3) The Rays have been flush in #3-#5 starting pitchers over the past couple of years (including the traded Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel) – some with upside, some without.  For 2010 purposes only, do you any of the following quartet have a good shot at a sub-4.00 ERA and/or 150+Ks – Jeff Niemann, David Price, Andy Sonnanstine, and Wade Davis.

At their best, Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine will give you a 4.00 ERA and 150 Ks. Sonny is more likely going to be in Durham as the emergency starter, so he is a ‘no.” Niemann should be close to those numbers, but he seems to need extra rest a lot. Both Price and Davis will be free to throw 200 innings this year. Both will give you something closer to 170-180 Ks. I think Davis will be around a 4.00 ERA. The big question in my mind is Price. I think he can be anywhere from 3.50 to 4.50. And I wouldn’t be surprised at either end.

4) Which of the following prospects is the best option for ‘keeper’ leagues:  Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, or Sean Rodriguez?  Will any of them see extended playing in 2010?

In a keeper league I would want them in this order: Jennings, Davis, Rodriguez, Brignac.

I don’t think Davis will be anything better than a #3 starter, but he should be dependable in that role. He is the type of pitcher that you can stick in the lineup and you will have a good idea what he is going to give you each year. And he is durable enough that he should stay healthy. Jennings on the other hand, has a chance to be something very special. And if he can stay healthy, he will be.

Brignac is no longer much of a prospect with the bat. It will be decent, but never very good. Rodriguez on the other hand should hit for decent power at the big league level and he will see time at 2B, SS, 3B and in the OF.

Davis should give the Rays 32 + starts this season. Rodriguez will likely get 80+ starts this season and could be an everyday player in 2011. Brignac could platoon at second base but may never be an everyday player with the Rays. And as good as Jennings is, he is still relatively inexperienced. And the Rays value experience in their prospects. I would not be surprised if Jennings doesn’t make his debut until 2011.

5) Now that the Twins have moved out of the Metrodome, there’s no doubt that the Rays play in the ugliest field in baseball (feel free to argue though).  The Rays don’t even have the nicest stadium named after an orange juice brand (Minute Maid > Tropicana).  If the Rays were able to get a new stadium from the city, which of the following nods to the Rays illustrious past would make the best attraction:

a) Chuck Lamar’s Left Field Pawn Shop – Bring us your old and washed-up stuff and we’ll pay you too much for it!  Bring in unused useless items and we’ll swap them up for future gems.
b) Sweet Lou’s Tropical Bar & Lounge – Tired of going to bars and beating yourself up for not taking the hottest chick home?  Come to Sweet Lou’s where you can take a break and be congratulated for taking the 2nd ugliest girl in the place home.
c) Wade Boggs’ Chicken & Beer Shack – Chicken only available before games.  Beer only available after games.  During games, you can play arcade games preset to almost be at high score.  Throw in a token amount of time and celebrate your milestone!
d) Dewon Brazelton’s Pitching Area – See how fast you can throw!  Speed only credited if the ball is thrown outside the provided strike zone.
e) Rocco Baldelli’s Trattoria – Open periodically when the chef isn’t sick, injured, or tired.

Ha! Yes, the Rays need a new stadium, that is more because The Trop is located in a terrible spot. And yes it is ugly, but watching a game there is very underrated. The seats are comfortable. The sightlines are great. When the crowds are large (rare, I know) it is reminiscent of the Metrodome in the 80s and 90s (very loud, with a great homefield advantage).

And for the life of me, I have never understood why domes are taboo in baseball. We are talking about a sport that comes to a screeching halt in rain. And yet there are at least 6 teams in the NFL that play in domes and that is somehow OK.

Would I prefer to attend a game outside on a nice 80degree day with no humidity? Of course. But that ain’t St. Pete.

(Note:  Cork diplomatically didn’t choose one of the above so please feel free to choose one in the comments below.  We’ll make sure to forward the winner to Tampa Bay management.)

1) Aside from perhaps Matt Wieters, there wasn’t a player who failed to live up to their huge hype than Chris Davis.  Do you think he can manage a .260 / 25+ HR season whilst he strike out at a rate that would make Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds blush?

I don’t think a .260/25+ home run season is unreasonable for Davis, particularly given that he had a .238/21 home run season last year while playing roughly two-thirds of the season.  But realistically, hitting .260 with 25-30 home runs probably isn’t going to cut it for Davis to keep his job — he’s always going to strike out a lot, but he’s got to add some walks and put up power numbers more like he did in 2008.  I certainly think he’s capable of doing that — he hit at every level in the minors, hit in the majors in 2008, and doesn’t turn 24 until later this month.  But it is going to come down to improving his contact rate — at 150 Ks in a season, he is a potential All Star.  At 200-225 Ks in a season, he’s going to be out of a job.

2) We felt Josh Hamilton was overrated for fantasy baseball purposes last year but even we weren’t expecting just 336 ABs and 10 HRs.  Is expecting .280/25/100 too optimistic?

It is hard to say with Josh.  I’m thinking that we, as Rangers fans, need to think of him as another J.D. Drew, a guy who is going to make you crazy by missing time with what seem to be minor injuries, and who is always going to be dealing with nagging injuries.  If he plays 130 games this year, he should be good for 30+ homers, and with the Rangers moving him out of CF to save on the wear and tear, he should have a bounceback year.

3) Let’s play over/under with HR/SB:  Kinsler 25/25, Cruz 25/15, Borbon 10/30, Andrus 7/35.

4) It’s been, well, ever since a Rangers starting pitcher has been considered draftable in most fantasy baseball formats.  Convince us that 1 or more of the Rangers pitchers might be one of the top 50 pitchers this year.

For starters, the Ranger defense is going to help the pitchers’ ERAs.  The defense has been below average for most of the last decade, but in 2009, with guys like Elvis, Kinsler and Cruz providing plus defense, the Rangers had one of the best rates of converting balls in play into outs in the league.  That translates into better ERAs.  The two guys who I think are worth a look fantasy-wise are Rich Harden and Colby Lewis.  Harden, everyone knows about, a guy who has great stuff and hasn’t stayed healthy.  Lewis is an interesting case, a guy who went to Japan and was great, and who the projection systems all seem to think will translate well back in the U.S.  He’s a guy I think is worth a flyer on, because if he does translate what he did in Japan to the U.S., he’d be a steal.

5) What’s more likely to happen in 2010:

a) An in-game fight breaks out and Nolan Ryan jumps on the field and gives someone a headlock.

b) The Ranger catchers combine for less extra base hits than letters in their collective last names.

c) The new Ranger owners call up Tom Hicks and Dubya for ownership advice.

d) Vlad Guerrero and Josh Hamilton both play 140+ games.

I think c.  Dubya wasn’t a bad owner (although he was really just the figurehead for the money guys), and with Hicks, well, they might want advice from him to see what he did, so they can avoid his mistakes.

1) Cameron Maybin looks like an unrefined five-tool stud like a young Burt Reynolds.  Yay or nay?  15 homers and 20 steals in 2010, you taking the over or under for each?

I’d say a push on those numbers for Maybin. I think 15 homers is a very good possibility, but may be around his upper limit for this season. I have a feeling like he won’t be pushing the basepaths so much this year, so I may take the under on those 20 steals. His spot in the lineup will be low in the order, and probably won’t give a whole lot of SB opportunities.

2) Josh Johnson showed up on the Verducci list.  We have our own take on Verducci. I’m sure this gives you pause on Johnson in 2010, but how much?

I have a little concern for Josh Johnson, but not enough to label him a major injury risk. He did seem to tire at the end of last season, but the peripherals were solid into the late months, and I would not take any month splits too seriously anyway. I think you’re looking at another excellent year for JJ.

3) Ricky Nolasco’s K/BB is a thing of beauty.  His FIP last year says he’s extremely unlucky.  I think if he avoids injury, he can be great.  What’s your prediction for Nolasco for 2010?

My thoughts on Nolasco’s 2010 performance? 3.80 or so ERA, strikeouts on 22% of his batters faced, walks in 6% or so of his batters faced, and a very happy fantasy owner. I share your sentiment on Nolasco being very good in 2010.

4) Is Gaby Sanchez the opening day starter?  What kind of numbers do you see from him in 2010?

Gaby Sanchez is likely to be the Opening Day starter at first base, but I don’t expect a whole lot. Projections have him at around the same wOBA as Jorge Cantu, but he won’t have the RBI opportunities to rack up good numbers in that respect. I also don’t think he’ll play the full season, since I think the Marlins will find someone to hit righties occasionally for him. Expect some 450 PA and maybe 12 home runs and a solid average and OBP.

5) The Marlins seem to change their stadium’s name every year.  This year they will play at Sun Life Stadium (subject to change depending on post time), which was previously Land Shark Stadium, Dolphin Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, Pro Player Park and Joe Robbie Stadium.  What do you think the name of their 2011 stadium will be?  A) Mets South Stadium B) The Very Humidor  C) Obama’s Health Care Park D) Does it matter, no one goes anyway.

I’ll take the last choice. I’m going to a game or two this year, but I don’t live down there, so I have an excuse. Get out there and watch the Marlins at (insert name here) Stadium!

1) The fantasy baseball expectations of Matt Wieters last year were ridiculous – nothing short of Piazza’s 1993 rookie year (.318/81/35/112) would’ve satisifed them.  A year later, expectations are in check and our CHONE/ZiPS-based projection systems have him with a modest line of:  .286/55 R /14 HR /63 RBI.  Do you think he’ll surpass any of those levels and, if so, by how much?

I think those expectations are pretty spot-on, as I have him projected to hit .287/.351/.455 right now. The RBI and R has a lot to do with where he hits in the batting order, which I’m not sure of.  I do think he has a chance to break out, but am not really looking for that to happen for at least another year. Adjusting to hitting major league pitching is hard – especially when one also has to adjust to catching major league pitching

2) The Orioles have a number of starting pitcher prospects.  Rank the following in order based on your 2010 expectations:  Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman.

Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman, Berken. I think Matusz can be an above average starting pitcher already; Bergesen around average; Tillman and Berken more of like 4/5 starters, with the latter maybe seeing some time in the bullpen as well (and the former have the much higher ceiling).

3) Which of the Orioles outfielders will have the best year at the plate: Nick (Sparkakis!) Markakis, Adam Jones, or Nolan Reimold?

Markakis. He’s the only one who I think can hit .300, put up a .380 OBP, and slug close to .500. I don’t think Jones or Reimold will get to any of those marks in 2010 – and especially not all three.

4) Brian Roberts’ SB totals have gone from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past 3 years.  Over/under 30 SBs in 2010?

I’ll take under 30, especially since he already has missed some time this spring with back issues. Roberts is getting into his mid 30s, so while he should still be able to steal quite a few bases just based on smart baserunning, I don’t think his speed will stay top notch for that much longer.

5) Since you follow the Orioles, we assume you live in the Baltimore area and, thus, must have watched ‘The Wire’.  So, which Wire character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?  (personality vs. physical)  If you haven’t seen the Wire, please explain yourself.

I do live in Baltimore, and I have seen The Wire, but only the first season (and a couple episodes of the second). It was a good show – and I can definitely tell why people consider it one of the best TV shows of all time – but it just didn’t grab me that strongly. I’m hoping to come back to it at some point. I guess in light of that, I can’t really answer the question well. I think Angelos has finally allowed the baseball people to be in charge, which is for the best.

Rudy:  Sheeeeeeeettt, I would’ve thought all Baltimoretonians were required to watch The Wire and all Barry Levinson + Jon Waters movies.  The easy answer to “Which ‘The Wire’ character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?” is The Greek from Season 2 as he 1) also owns a big organization, 2) works best when he keeps a low profile and let’s lieutenants take care of the day-to-day and 3) is of Greek descent (Angelos is Greek-American).  Alternatives answers include Mayor Clarence Royce (profited off civil service – Angelos made his money in class-action suits – and ran the city into the ground), Police Commissioner Ervin Burrell (misran the Police Department and put too much faith in bad lieutentants like Deputy Rawls), and drug kingpin Avon Barksdale (gets a little too overexcited when someone disrespects him by encroaching on his territory *cough* Washington Senators *cough*)

1) Garrett Jones’s 2009, small sample talking or sign of things to come in 2010?

Can it be somewhere in between? On one hand, he hit 21 homers in 82 games and besides an early surge, he was fairly consistent over that time. Things like that don’t happen by complete accident. On the flip side, he’s played almost 600 games in Triple-A and his OPS there is below .800. That’s also not an accident. Which is to say, I’m willing to concede that Jones made some kind of step forward in 2009 and that he’s a better player than I ever expected, but he’s also not going to hit 40 homers in a season either. At least, I don’t think he is.

2) Andrew McCutchen, who Razzball has affectionately nicknamed The Dread Pirate, had a tremendous rookie year.  I’ve sung my praises for what we should expect in 2010.  What do you expect?

First off, I love that nickname and may, erm, pirate it for my own uses. Secondly, I’d expect maybe a little bit of a sophomore slump for ‘Cutch, if only because his .471 slugging percentage in 108 games with the Pirates was higher than his SLG in any full season in the minor leagues. There’s always the chance that 2009 represented a big step forward for McCutchen (his numbers at Triple-A were actually a little better than his numbers in Pittsburgh before his promotion), but if he tapers off to about a .400-.430 SLG with 12-15 homers for the full season, I wouldn’t be surprised. Like with Garrett Jones, it’s one of those things that we’re just going to have to watch and see.

3) Do you have any hope for Andy LaRoche or are the Pirates biding their time for Pedro Alvarez?

Maybe I’m crazy, but I do still have hope for LaRoche. He thumped the ball in May (.330/.411/.457) and September (.313/.359/.552) and while his final line wasn’t all that great, it was a big improvement over his struggles with the Dodgers and Pirates prior to 2009. He’s also got a good glove at third base, and the club seems hopeful that if Alvarez is able to stay at third base for a while, that LaRoche will be able to move to second, where his bat should play much better than it does at a corner.

4) Steve Pearce has 8 homers and a .304 OBP through 342 major league ABs over the course of 3 years.  Will he ever breakout or will Jones play first to make room for Church vs. righties?

The Pirates’ right field/first base situation is a pretty complicated one heading into this season. I think the team’s default position is to let Jones play right and give Jeff Clement the first shot at first base, then adjust based on how Clement performs, how Andy LaRoche is hitting at third base, where Pedro Alvarez is, whether Akinori Iwamura is still in a Pirate uniform by mid-season, and how Jose Tabata develops. Pearce seemingly gets lost in the shuffle there, except he’s the only right-handed player (besides Tabata, who I think probably needs a full season at Triple-A) in the mix. He has a pretty big platoon split in the minors (.991 OPS vs. lefties, .831 vs. righties) and so I think there’s some value in him spelling Jones, Clement, Church, Alvarez, or whoever at one of those position against tough lefties. I think his chances at playing every day are pretty much done, though (remember that he was only really a prospect because he was in the Pirates’ system in the first place, his one great year came because he was sort of bafflingly asked to repeat High-A after a good showing there the year before, and when he hit his way up to a September call-up that season McCutchen and the shell of Neil Walker were the Bucs’ only real prospects at that time, which caused people to get excited about him). And now my longest answer is about Steve Pearce. Great. This is life as a Pirate fan.
5) Back in the 80s, many Pirate players found themselves embroiled in baseball’s cocaine scandal of 1985.  It turned out that the players came upon the Devil’s Dandruff from a connection of their mascot, the Parrot.  Then when the trial came, the Parrot talked, turning state’s evidence and snitching out many Pirate players.  Nothing would ever happen like this now because:  A) The Parrot knows his place.  B) Since the 80s better, undetectable drugs have been designed to replace cocaine, like Red Bull. C) Lastings Milledge can’t stand snitches.

The answer has several components. One is that the Pirates have brought a cartoonish Pirate mascot (the Jolly Roger) into the fold, and he presumably has guns to keep the Parrot in line. The second is that no one on the team makes enough money to support a drug habit at the moment. The third is that it’s not so much that Lastings Milledge hates snitches, as I think he and Andrew McCutchen should film a low-budget cable access buddy-cop show that shows on local TV at 1 AM. I would watch this show.

1) I really liked Chris Iannetta’s promise for 2010 going into November, then Olivo happened.  What kind of ABs do you see Iannetta now getting?  What kind of numbers?

Despite little statements here and there in the traditional media about Spring Training determining the amount of playing time for both catchers, it’s hard to see how Olivo will overcome Iannetta. Olivo hits for more power, but he also takes hacks at pitches that hit the ground in front of home plate. Iannetta knows how to get on base, and bringing up his low batting average in 2009 is not the way to start an argument on who should be the Rockies’ starting catcher. With a bit more normal BABIP, Iannetta’s average will rise to the .250-.260 range. A season similar to his 2008 campaign (.264/.390/.505) would cement his place as the Rockies’ starter well into the future.

2) The Rockies are a dream team of upside for fantasy baseball.  Besides Iannetta, there’s Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  The problem with lots of upside is usually managers just want producers in there — Barmes, Spilborghs, Smith, etc.  Will Young get 400 ABs without a 80 pound slab of deer meat falling from the sky onto Barmes?  Will Fowler and CarGo get 500 ABs each?  What kind of numbers do you see for these three in 2010? (Note: This question was asked before the Rockies announced Young would probably start the year in the minors.)

It’ll be hard for EY Jr. to gain that much playing time with Spilborghs and Smith able to backup the outfield corners and Barmes the starting second baseman. He’ll also receive a bit of a test from utility man Ryan Freel in Spring Training. And if the Rockies still have interest in Fernando Tatis, EY Jr. may find himself in the minors.

Fowler and CarGo are the starters in center and left, so 500 ABs for each isn’t out of the question. CarGo seems to be further along at this point with a strong final two months of the season. If you’re looking for stolen bases, Fowler should be a good flier (though he’ll also have a high number of CS), and you may just be surprised with what else he puts up.

3) I’ve got Rocky Mountain high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes for Ian Stewart. Tell me my meds haven’t got me thinking all crazy again.

Your meds haven’t messed with your thinking. . . well, not that much. Stewart’s going to be the starting third baseman without any competition since Garrett Atkins is plying his trade with the Orioles now. It’d be nice to see Stew strike out less and bring up his low line drive percentage (14.1%) in order to use that potential we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2003.

4)  Jorge de la Rosa’s FIP was 3.91 while he rocked a 4.38 ERA, so something was amiss.  Looks like it might be his strand rate, but his free passes sure don’t help.  His Ks are tantalizing for fantasy, but he also looks very risky.  What do you see for him in 2010?

I see a more confident De La Rosa taking the mound with numbers around the same as his 2009 ones. He’s going to be relied on heavily with Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook at the front of the rotation and Jeff Francis returning from a lost 2009 season.

5) Denver is home to hundreds of microbreweries, but what’s your favorite Rockies-themed beer?  A) Franklin Mor-Ales A) Helton’s Jesus Lager C) Stale Hawpes

Franklin Mor-Ales, because we still expect more from him, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation.

1) This is the year Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey make good on all their promise, right? Please.  Lie to me, if need be.

I sure hope so.  Jay Bruce had somewhat disappointing season last year (0.223/0.303/0.470), certainly below most people’s expectations.  As a result, he seems to have slipped a bit in a lot of people’s estimations.  There were some other troubling aspects of his performance last year as well, like his 13% line drive rate (though this is not a particularly stable stat for most hitters).  Nevertheless, there is cause for optimism.  Most importantly, he’s entering his age-23 season with two years of MLB under his belt.  Not many players have done that and shown the kind of power Bruce has; that’s part of the reason that Barry Bonds is listed as his most similar player (by age) at baseball-reference.  Second, his BABIP was unbelievably low last season.  Part of that may be a function of his low line drive rate and excessively high fly ball rate.  But part of it may just be bad luck.  He’s a nice kid with sky-high talent, so everyone’s hoping he can take a big step forward next year.  To do so, however, he’s going to need to show much better plate discipline than he has in the past.  Sometimes he gets into funks where he seems to swing at just about anything the pitcher throws his way, and the result is a lot of weakly hit balls that will do his BABIP no favors.

As for Bailey…  He reportedly made a meaningful adjustment to his mechanics last offseason, and the result was a 3 mph uptick in his fastball velocity.  That’s massive, and it’s the main reason that I think what he showed over his last 9 starts (58 IP, 1.70 ERA, 53/24 K/BB) might be predictive of a quality season from him next year.  The only problem with that statement is that he had the same mechanical adjustment and velocity increase over his first 11 starts too (55 IP, 7.53 ERA, 33/28 K/BB).  But, maybe he just needed some time to find himself.  That’s what I keep telling myself anyway.

Clearly, this is a huge year for both of them.  With their talent, it’s probably not a “make or break” year.  But I think it’ll go a long way in telling us what sorts of careers these guys are likely to have.  … though I probably said the same thing last year.

2) My free Chinese calender says it’s The Year of the Tiger (and Tuesdays are “Lo Mein, Low Prices” Day).  But something tells me it’s The Year of the Votto.  What’s your prediction for him in 2010?

For some reason, I’ve always been a little skeptical on Votto, and he’s always proven me wrong.  But I think we’re going to see Joey Votto regress a bit.  I think he’s going to be a nice hitter, but the guy had an 0.372 BABIP last year.  That’s hard to maintain.  Most projections have him in the 0.300/0.385/0.525 range, and I’d be thrilled to get that from him again next year–especially if he can conquer some of the anxiety issues that surfaced last year and start 150+ games.  He was able to play through the anniversary of his father’s death over the last part of the season last year, so that’s a good sign.

3) Let’s play, Over/Under.  Next year, Drew Stubbs — 400 ABs, .240 average, 10 homers, 35 steals.  Feel free to expand on why you think he’ll be over or under on each.

Tough, as that’s about right.  I’ll take the over on the average and AB’s, and the under on the steals and homers.  I really don’t know what to expect from Stubbs, because his success in the majors last year–8 HR in 180 AB’s–goes completely against what his minor league numbers tell us to expect.  He “should be” a patient hitter who strikes out a lot and gets a lot of value from walks, speed, and fielding.  His fielding was as brilliant as advertised, and that along with the Taveras trade should keep him in the lineup as long as Chris Heisey doesn’t go crazy on us or something.  10 HR is clearly not out of his reach, and he’s always been a guy that the Reds expected to hit for at least decent power.  But I think pitchers are going to pitch him differently this year, which might prevent that kind of power success again.  He hit more than 7 home runs in a season just once in the minors, and that was in Low-A Dayton.  Steals…well, it will depend on how often he gets on base.  Dusty will likely hit him near the top of the lineup, though, because Dusty always leads off with a CF or SS…and Cabrera’s “a #2 hitter.”

4) In 2010, Johnny Cueto will pitch more like how he did in the 1st half or the 2nd half of 2009? And why?

My hope is like the first half, though the safe answer is somewhere in between.  One thing about Cueto last year is that he had pitched in both winter ball (against the Reds’ wishes IIRC) as well as the World Baseball Classic.  People already worried about his ability to hold up to workload given his fairly small frame (5’10″ 185lbs), and it’s reasonable to think that he might have just gotten really tired in the second half last season.  But it’s also the case that on June 1st, his ERA was 2.53 but his FIP was 4.02 and he had a 0.234 BABIP.  So part of it was just regression.  I hoping for 180 IP with a 4.25 ERA or so, but I’m not sure if I’ll get it.

5) When do you think we see Aroldis Chapman with the Reds?  Is there any truth to the rumor that Aroldis Chapman signed with the Reds because Dusty Baker’s concern for pitchers was most akin to Fidel Castro’s concern for human rights?

It’s hard to know.  I initially figured he’d start somewhere in A-ball and quickly work his way up if he showed he was ready.  But the initial reports from the Reds’ pitching coach were glowing, indicating much better command of his offspeed pitches, for example.  He might start the year in the high minors and be with the big club by mid-year.  Or, he might struggle.  It’s pretty hard to know without any minor league game data to work from.  I like tall left handers who throw 100 mph, though.

As for Dusty…Aside from the Harang stupidity in 2008, I think he’s been pretty good with the pitchers.  Especially the young ones.  Cueto, for example, never threw over 112 pitches last year, and only 5 times threw 110 or more.  Volquez threw 121 once in 2008, but never went over that mark.  I don’t think Dusty is breaking pitchers, at least not any more.

1) Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom or Door Number 3?  Who’s going to be the closer for the majority of 2010 and what kind of numbers do you see them putting up?

Despite the gaudy contract he just signed (3 yr/$15 million) I don’t think that Brandon Lyon will end up closing that many games for the Astros. He is, as much as I and fellow Astro fans may want to deny, a slightly above average relief pitcher. He if plenty good enough to be a solid set up man, but ill suited in my estimation to be our regular closer.

Matt Lindstrom entered 2009 as the gas tossing Marlin closer. After injuring himself at the World Baseball Classic, Lindstrom never achieved the sort of success in South Florida that the Fish would have liked. A year later, Lindstrom isn’t penciled in as the Astros’ closer, but he is in the running. A 100 mph fastball and a decent slider are what Lindstrom offers.

Bottom line though, Lindstrom has never finished a ML season as a closer, and Lyon has had mixed results in the role. Doors 3 (Alberto Arias), 4 (Jeff Fulchino), or 5 (Samuel Gervacio) may have to be opened by season’s end. This might not be a bad thing, however, as all five have their strong points and offer the Astros an enviable amount of depth at the back end of the bullpen.

2) In the last two weeks of 2009, J.R. Towles hit 2 homers and batted over .400.  Before that, he was a Morganna-sized bust.  Can he finally breakout in 2010?

Wow! A Morganna reference! I’m 24, so you’re lucky I caught the reference. Anyways, J.R. Towles has amassed a grand total of 234 major league at bats in his entire career. So, it’s pretty unfair to call him a bust. That being said, J.R. is an athletic catcher who is very capable of being a 10 HR/10 SB guy if given the necessary at bats. He’s shown the willingness to walk in the minors, and hopefully that skill translates if given the opportunity in Houston. Sadly (for Towles), scouts believe 2008 first round draft pick Jason Castro is almost ready for full time action, so Towles may have to show his stuff early in 2010 for either a back up slot with the Astros once Castro is called up or possibly for a job with another club.

3) Hunter Pence turns 27 this year and looks on the verge of a breakout that even Ed Wade can’t stop.  What kind of year can he put up?  35 homers, 15 steals?  30/10?  Hopefully something better than Pedro Feliz?

I’m going to hold off on the 35 HR prediction, but 25 HR, 15 steals and a better BB:K ratio than in 2009 could certainly be in order. Couple his offense with his stellar defense in right field, and Pence is a slightly below All Star level talent who the Astros are happy to have in the lineup.

4) Last year, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman seemed to begin their descent over the hill.  Can they slam on the brakes and be top tier hitters again in 2010?

While both players are in their mid-30s, and both hit for a good bit of power, their games are fairly distinct from one another. Lance is a more patient hitter who is more helpful than a bag of sand on defense. Carlos is an unmotivated, high contact, low K, professional hitter in the Matt Stairs mold. Lance should be able to be a productive hitter for as long as he wants to play (and if you read between the lines with Lance, that may not be past his current contract). Carlos’ skills don’t translate well into old age, so Astros fans should hope Lee is able to hold on for as long as possible…at least until an AL club in need of a DH gets greedy and takes on his contract.

5) Tommy Manzella sounds like he should be in culinary school and Jeff Keppinger is the answer to the question, “Who is Brett Myers giving a wedgie to?”  So what becomes of shortstop?  Can Manzella offer anything besides a delicious Chicken Parm?

Chef Manzella is set to prepare a feast for the city of Houston this summer:

As an appetizer, Manzella will offer up quick hands and feet paired with an accurate throwing arm.

For the main course, Chef has been working hard on honing his batting stroke and toughening up for the long haul of a 162 game season.

And for dessert (everybody’s favorite), Tommy accents a slightly older vintage of player at third base (Pedro Feliz), giving the Astros the sort of defense that will save runs left and right.

All for an affordable price of….league minimum.

Jeff Keppinger was a pleasant surprise in 2009, and should get plenty of at bats in 2010 at 2B, SS and 3B. If not striking out was a game….he..um…would be good at it.

1) Most of last year it looked like Soto was taking batting lessons from Barry Foote, but I still foresee a nice bounce back for Geovany Soto in 2010.  Are you as optimistic?  What do you see his 2010 looking like?

Now that Soto is no longer smoking weed and swallowing entire birthday cakes whole, I’m going to label myself as “cautiously optimistic” that his 2010 numbers will look more like his 2008 numbers than his 2009 numbers.  In 2008, Soto struck out twice as often as he walked.  Last year, it was closer to 1 1/2 times as often, which is encouraging.  But I have a penchant toward pessimism, so I give three warnings:

1. In 2008, Soto had guys like Mark DeRosa and Jim Edmonds hitting behind him, for the most part.  In 2009, he had dwarves like Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot, and mighty Sam Fuld hitting behind him.  After the success Soto had during his 2008 season, was the increase in his walk rate a matter of him getting pitched around more often during 2009?

2. In his entire professional career, Soto has had only two good years, 2007 in Iowa and 2008 in Chicago, when he had a very uncharacteristic power surge.  Are those seasons anomalies, or is this a matter of a guy “figuring it out”?

3. I won’t bother asking the weight loss questions that everyone has to ask thanks to Mark McGwire, but allegedly losing 40 pounds in three months is pretty dramatic.  Even if Soto did drop nothing but fat, how will that affect his power?  The fattest guys in my slow-pitch softball league hit the ball the farthest, so I will assume the exact same principle applies to baseball.
It sounds like Lou Piniella is going to bat Soto no higher than 7th in the lineup in 2010, meaning the only protection he’ll get behind him will come on days when Carlos Zambrano is pitching.  I will cautiously say Soto will rebound from his terrible 2009 year, hit 20 home runs, and drive in 75.

2) Pitching better in the majors than in the minors isn’t supposed to happen. Yet, Randy Wells pulled it off last year.  Can he repeat?

No, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be solid.  Wells was a great story last year, made greater by the fact that when the league started to figure him out and hit him, the Cubs had already decided to make the NL Central race uninteresting, so no one was watching anymore.  Basically each month that passed, Well’s K/BB ratio dropped, and his WHIP and opponents’ OPS rose.  Of course, Wells’ “worst” month was August, when, despite a Jason Marquis-esque 1.421 WHIP, he still managed to post a 3.69 ERA.

Don’t expect Wells’ ERA to be hovering around 3 at the end of next season, but I think you can reasonably expect it to be around 4, with somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 wins.  Remember Matt Clement?  I think Wells is him with fewer strikeouts.

3) Alfonso Soriano looked every bit of his Latin 34 last year.  Is there any hope that he has one last 30 homer, 20 steal season in him?

His days of stealing bases are as far behind him as his 37th birthday, but there’s no reason Soriano’s power shouldn’t be back.  The guy swings a tree trunk and tries to pull everything that’s thrown at him.  On the rare occasion when his chunk of tree makes contact with the ball, the ball goes far.  I’ve always thought Soriano is the type of hitter you want batting fifth in your lineup.  He has power, and with guys on base, there is absolutely no way he’s going to take a walk and let Mike Fontenot try to drive in a run.  Lou, apparently, feels differently, though, as it looks like Soriano is going to hit behind Marlon Byrd during the 100 games that he’s actually healthy.  Soriano should hit 30+ home runs, and with him finally down in the lineup where he should be, he could break the 80-RBI threshold for the first time as a Cub.

4) Like going into Karma in Seaside, the stench of Aramis from last year is foul.  Can he stay healthy in 2010 and get back to 30+ homers?

I hate you for making me look up what “Karma in Seaside” is.  Aramis is the best player on the Cubs, despite what the dopes wearing Theriot jerseys may say (I’ve seen GROWN MEN wearing them, for God’s sake).  Aramis started last year red-hot, and his injury was a freak occurrence.  It still burns me that the Cubs were too stupid to realize they were out of the NL Central race some time during August.  Aramis’ injury was bad, and if I had my druthers, Aramis would have been shut down and had shoulder surgery in August or September.  Instead, he finished the season and skipped surgery for cockfighting.  Oops.

Injury aside, Aramis’ swing is too line-drivey to ever make him a prodigious home run hitter.  I think he’ll hit 25+ home runs and lead the team in balls hit on the fly off the outfield wall.

5) Let’s say a half-faced Frank Langella offers you the chance to see the Cubs win the World Series but you’ll have to press a button.  Once pressed, it will force someone on the current 25-man Cubs roster or coaching staff to be fused at the hip to Milton Bradley for a year.  Whom would you choose and why do you hate them so much?

So, YOU’RE the person who saw The Box.  Can the Cubs re-sign Aaron Miles, just so I can include him in this deal?  No?  Then, without a doubt, I would choose Ryan Theriot for a few reasons.

1. I really want Starlin Castro to start at shortstop for the majority of the year.
2. I hate him.
3. He is a terrible baserunner.
4. He needs a running start to throw the ball on a fly to first base.
5. He is the most inexplicably beloved Cub since Augie Ojeda.
6. I hate him.

Can I push the button twice, so the Cubs sweep the White Sox in the Series at the cost of having Ryan Dempster fused to Milton’s other hip?  Doing an impression of Will Ferrell doing an impression of Harry Caray is not much of an impression at all, my friend.

1) With the resigning of the largest Flying Molina Brother, Buster Posey doesn’t seem to have much of a chance to break camp with the club.  Do we see him in 2010 at all?  What do you expect of him?

If the Giants are in contention, and Molina is healthy, there’s no way Posey will start more than two or three game in the second half. Bruce Bochy really believes that inexperienced catchers are death to a team’s chances of winning. Starting Posey over someone who is familiar with the staff would be as negligent as starting only two outfielders.

But if the Giants are out of the race, and if Posey is doing well, he’ll probably start quite a few games down the stretch.

2) I’m not that optimistic on Nate Schierholtz.  Make me a believer.

It’s hard to be optimistic about a guy who has swung at pitches that have hit him — again, that’s pitch*es*, plural — but the projection systems like him well enough. PECOTA, CHONE, Bill James, ZiPS…they all seem to think he’ll be an average hitter. His minor league numbers are decent enough (.308/.355/.516), and he’s not a defensive liability at all, so he’ll get a chance.

If he ever controls the strike zone at all, he’ll be a nice player. You could write that, though, about 3,121 different players.

3)  I am optimistic about Jonathan Sanchez.  Give me your boldest prediction for Sanchez this year.

Boldest? Well, if you want to get nuts, ZiPS lists his comparable pitchers by age as Mark Langston, Sandy Koufax, and Randy Johnson — all LHP with huge K-rates who suddenly morphed into something fantastic during their mid-20s. That’s bold. In my wildest bouts of optimism, I’ll say 200 IP, 230 K, 90 BB, 3.30 ERA. I don’t think he’ll make it to 200 IP, though. He’s too wild, and I’m not sure how he’d hold up over that workload.

His ability to miss bats is pretty rare, though.

4) With the signing of 30-somethings like Molina, DeRosa, Huff, Rowand, and Renteria, do you think Sabean considers this a “youth movement?”  C’mon, bring back Vizquel and Randy Johnson.  Trade for Moyer.  What’s Julio Franco up to?

I think his commitment to the farm system came in the last two years, and you really need four or so to bear a lot of fruit. Other than Posey and Sandoval, the best of the Giants’ system aren’t above A-ball yet, so I can’t fault the guy for trying to build a win-now team without long-term contracts or blockbuster trades. Maybe the Giants could have been set for a longer period of time with a young guy like J.J. Hardy; maybe that would have cost Jonathan Sanchez. Maybe the Marlins were asking for Thomas Neal in exchange for Dan Uggla.

That said, I’m not wild about the stopgaps he did pick up. Huff is a clank-mitt, DeRosa is good but old, Molina is a horrid offensive player when you consider everything but home runs, and none of them are substantial improvements over the incumbents.  Sabean basically spent $18M this offseason for his version of cost certainty. If all of those guys fall flat on their faces, Sabean can say, jeez, how was I supposed to guess these proven players were going to disappoint? This is preferable to trying to explain how unproven players didn’t perform in his mind, and he thinks the season-ticket holders agree. Who knows? Maybe he has a point.

5) With Pablo Sandoval on a strict conditioning program this offseason, what kinds of things can we expect from him this summer?  A) Changes nickname to Kung Fu Hustle.  B) After a game winning homer, he gets a salad smashed into his face.  C) When he hits one out, less instances where announcers scream ‘Rerun’ instead of ‘Home Run.’

I think he’ll still be a little spherical, but hopefully he’ll be able to repeat his 2009 performance for years to come. I don’t think he’d mind the salad as long as it was followed by four more courses.

1) The Braves expected 1st baseman is Troy Glaus, but I think they might have signed him to make Prado look fast and to make Chipper look resilient to injury.  Do you think Glaus can make it through the season?  If so, what kind of numbers can we expect from him?

Obviously he can, but I wouldn’t expect him to avoid the IR the whole time.  I don’t think that the Braves do either, hence the signing of Eric Hinske.  I think Glaus will play about 125 games and hit 25-30 homers, and probably bat about .250 but with enough walks to get him into the .350 OBP range.

2) I’m going on two years of excitement for Jason Heyward.  Do we finally see him this year?  If so, when and what kind of predictions do you see for him?

Given the current Braves outfield, which has basically one player (Nate McLouth) who’s really a major league regular, plus one good part-timer (Diaz) and one born bench player (the Melkysaurus), it would be stunning if Heyward didn’t play at some point.  Right now, it’s 50-50 he starts the season in the majors.  It could change if the Braves sign Johnny Damon.

If Heyward plays, I wouldn’t be too optimistic, as he’s still very young.  I’d say .270/.330/.420.

3) Between the majors and minors, Tommy Hanson threw 194 innings last year after throwing 138 IP in 2008.  Does that innings bump worry you?  Can he stay healthy in 2010?

Everything worries me.  The jump isn’t quite as big as the stats indicate since he pitched in the AFL in 2008.  I think he’ll stay mostly healthy, but probably go through a dead-arm period.

4)  Tim Hudson will throw 175 innings of sub-3.50 ERA ball in 2010.  True or false and why.

If I had to guess, yes on the former, no on the latter.  I think he’ll have two or three spectacularly awful starts that will skew his ERA. He was throwing at a higher velocity last year, but with occasional wildness, and I doubt it’s all out of his system yet.

5)  With Chipper, Yunel and now Melky, the Braves have some of the best first names in baseball. McLouth, McCann and Dye-as are decent enough last names.  Derek Lowe, Billy Wagner and Tommy Hanson work when you say the whole name.  But what do we do with Jair Jurrjens?  I call him Jar-Jar, but meesa tinks that’s dated.  There’s got to be a better nickname.  Right?

I’ve never gotten a handle on his name either.  The best I can come up with is something involving Jurgens shampoo (I have a friend who calls him Jurgens).

1) Jonathan Broxton’s home and away splits, respectively — in 45 innings, 0.40 ERA, 73 Ks and a .095 BAA; in 31 innings, 5.81 ERA, 41 Ks and a .252 BAA.  Statistical anomaly or reason for concern?

Statistical anomaly, but somewhat troubling. It’s no secret that Dodger Stadium is friendlier to pitchers than hitters; a large amount of other Dodgers show similar (though not always as large) splits. For a closer, the emotional boost of jogging in from the bullpen with 50,000 fans chanting for you as your chosen generic hard rock song recorded between 1968-1992 plays probably has a bit to do with it too. Part of why those splits look so large is because Broxton is just unhittable at Dodger Stadium. In 2009 at home, he gave up two earned runs and had a 73/9 K/BB ratio, or more than 8 times as many K as BB. It’s easy to look bad on the road when you’re being measured against insane standards like that. That doesn’t change the fact that a 5.81 ERA is ugly, of course, but it’s also important to keep in mind that ERA is very misleading for relievers because of the small sample size.

2) Last year Chad Billingsley was my preseason Cy Young.  Man, does that look bad now.  Please tell me I’m not falling for the old-banana-in-the-tailpipe by predicting a bounce back.  What kind of year do you see from him?

I’m as big of a Billingsley supporter as anyone, but picking him over Tim Lincecum? Even I can’t back that up. I have to say, though, that I’ve never seen such unwarranted panic over the struggles of a young player as I saw over Billingsley’s tough second half last year. You’ve got a 24-year-old former 1st round draft pick who’d been outstanding for three years in a row, leading to his first All-Star selection, and a few tough starts cause media members and casual fans to call for his trade or release? It’s absolutely insane, especially because it was never as bad as it seemed. You know how many times he gave up more than 4 ER in the last two months of the season, when everyone was freaking out? Zero. In his last two starts of the season, he went into the sixth inning with a no-hitter and a one-hitter, before faltering in that frame both times.

So yeah, I still see a lot to like here, especially because his late-season issues in 2009 aren’t a total mystery. Billingsley fractured his leg slipping on ice in the winter before 2009, requiring surgery and curtailing his conditioning. Then he strained both hamstrings during the season, leading to a subtle but noticeable change in his mechanics. With a full offseason and a just a bit of luck in the health department, I see big things for Billingsley in 2010. Or he’ll completely implode and I’ll look like an ass. Whichever.

3)  The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles pitchers are always good for fantasy because of their weak hitting division and home stadium.  Give me the rotation, as you see it.

Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Vicente Padilla, and then pick a name out of a hat. Maybe it’s out-of-options soft-tossing lefty Eric Stults, who seems good for one amazingly dominating shutout a year before getting hurt or fading out. Perhaps it’s two-time Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year James McDonald, who won the #5 job out of camp last year before failing miserably, being demoted, and reinventing himself in the second half as an effective big-league reliever. Or former top pick Scott Elbert, a lefty who’s overcome arm injuries and probably has the most talent of anyone in this competition, but hasn’t yet proven it in the bigs. Or knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, picked up for nothing who became an AAA All-Star and contributed a few quality starts in the bigs last summer. Or 2008 second-round pick Josh Lindblom, a darling of last year’s spring training. Or this year’s annual participant in the Jeff Weaver/Chan Ho Park/Aaron Sele veteran scrapheap awards (please don’t be Russ Ortiz, please don’t be Russ Ortiz).

The point is, there’s no shortage of decent options for that job, and the smart money is that you’ll see several of them at some point. Joe Torre has shown very little patience in his back-end starters, and with possible injury concerns with the top guys there should be plenty of opportunity. The early advantage probably goes to Stults, just because he has no more options and has shown a little success already.

4) After Manny Ramirez returned from his suspension for testing positive for a female fertility drug, he didn’t look like the same player.  Do you think his inability to get pregnant weighed on his psyche and he can now return to pre-menopausal levels of hitting?  Or do you think Manny will be lucky to hit .285 and 25 homers?

I think there’s a lot of angles to the Manny story. Rumors of his demise are pretty exaggerated; for all of the complaints you heard about his failings last year he still put up an OPS that would have been top-10 in MLB if he’d played enough to qualify. I also think that in the rush to damn him for cheating, not nearly enough attention was paid to the 95 MPH fastball he took off his hand in mid-July. If you look at the segments of his season (helpfully laid out here) you can see that he was just as good as ever in the two weeks after he returned from suspension, before he got hit. For about a month after that, he was lousy. Once his hand presumably healed, his OBP and SLG came right back up to usual for the rest of the season. You didn’t hear much about that because A) it didn’t fit into the convenient story the media liked to run with and B) because his batting average was just .241, and the casual fan doesn’t get how meaningless that is.

With the injury behind him and a ton of motivation (both to repair his damaged reputation and to play for his next contract, presumably as an AL DH) I think you’ll see a very good year from Manny in 2010. I’d hesitate before saying you’ll see “vintage Manny,” though – don’t forget, he will be 38 years old, which probably has more of an effect than any drugs he may have stopped taking.

5) Do you take the over/under/push on:

One – The number of Manny in-game pee breaks. Under.
Two – The number of flinches by Rihanna when Matt Kemp gets up to hit. Under.
Three – The number of mid-inning reliever changes by Torre. Over. Way over.
Four – The amount of times Russ Martin weakly grounds out. Over isn’t even strong enough here. Not only is he a master of this, now he’s got Juan Pierre’s quota to make up for.
Five – The number of outfield signs that read, “I Go Ethier Way.“ Push.