1) Last year, the Yankees’ and Mets’ new stadia (or ‘stadiums’ for the bourgeois) had a huge impact on hitter values.  Any word on whether Target Field will lead to some hitter bargains?

It looks like Target Field will actually be more of a neutral park, which favors neither hitters nor pitchers, but there are a couple interesting aspects: there is a ton less foul territory than there was at the Metrodome, and outfielders will actually be able to spot the baseballs in the sky as opposed to losing them in the whiteness of the dome.  Also, it’s a three-foot longer trip to straight-away center field, which houses a few black spruce trees, so I suppose that makes it more of a pitcher-friendly stadium.  I wonder how often it will snow there?

2) Joe Mauer turned on the power last year hitting one less HR (28) than he had in 2006-2008.  He hit a ridiculous 16 of those HRs to the opposite field.  The average on the projection systems is about 20.  What do you think – over, under, or push on 20 HRs in 2010 for Mauer.

Over. He missed the entire month of April last season, and there is nothing — including his .429 batting average and .600 slugging percentage so far this Spring — which says he will under-perform compared to 2009.  I say he nails 30 bombs and 100 RBI this year.  And then proposes to me.

3) The Twins OF of Cuddyer/Span/Delmon Young with some Kubel thrown in projects to be rather awful defensively.  Any concerns on how this might impact the young Twins pitchers?

4) Give me the over/under/push on the following:
Morneau 29 HRs — over
Kubel 80 RBI – push
Span 25 SB – push
Punto 1 HR — under (seriously. He’ll have negative 1 probably)
Slowey 150 IP — over
Liriano 4.50 ERA — under

5) Ron Gardenhire has an understandable weakness for light-hitting infielders given he was one during his playing career.  Are you concerned he might gillooly Orlando Hudson or JJ Hardy to make sure he can get both Nick Punto and Brendan Harris into the lineup?

I hope Gardy doesn’t mess with the middle infield, I like it just the way it is.  Punto and Harris are just going to have to deal with being mediocre at best, and thank their lucky stars they are even on a big league roster.  And then they can high five each other on their way back to the bench during the platoon switch.

1) Alcides Escobar seems to me like a cheap shortstop that can provide steals (and obviously defense), which works for fantasy baseball (the steals part).  What’s your most realistic prediction for him in 2010?

It’s hard not to get excited about Alcides Escobar, who has developed a reputation as an absolute wizard defensively and looked very good at the plate in a brief audition for the Brewers last fall, hitting .304/.333/.368 and becoming just the second Brewer ever to collect 40 hits in his first 138 major league plate appearances. With that said, Escobar’s bat likely isn’t quite that good in the long term. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his 2009 Major League Equivalent line at .259/.301/.345, and that’s probably a fair expectation for his 2010 line.

As for steals, that will likely depend on his position in the lineup. His low OBP and power would suggest he should hit toward the bottom of the order where he could run wild, but the Brewers’ lack of better options may force him into the second spot in the lineup, where he’d have to be much more careful running in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. He’s stolen 80 bases in 100 attempts over the last two seasons, so he’ll certainly have some success on the basepaths if given the opportunity.

2) If you look in the dictionary next to the idiom, “You can’t steal 1st,” you’ll find Carlos Gomez, assuming your dictionary has pictures and baseball idioms.  Cheap steals can provide value in fantasy, so Gomez needs to be looked at (unfortunately).  How many at-bats do you see getting with his .230 average, .232 OBP and a man named, Jody, behind him?

Carlos Gomez has two things going for him at this point: He has a reputation as a very good defender, and the Brewers traded away a well known and moderately well liked contributor (J.J. Hardy) to get him. Those two factors will give him every opportunity to prove he can carry the load in center field, even if his bat never comes to life.

There’s clearly still plenty of room for growth with Gomez, who only turned 24 in December, and there are some reasons for optimism: He hit .275/.373/.374 during the regular season in the Dominican Winter League. However, his numbers plummeted during the postseason and he was left off his team’s Caribbean World Series roster with flulike symptoms.

If Gomez proves he’s not the answer, Jody Gerut is the likely candidate to absorb some of his playing time. Gerut looked very good in consistent ABs down the stretch last season, and is a capable defensive center fielder. Jim Edmonds also seems to think he’s coming to camp to prove he can still handle center field: if he can do so in an acceptable fashion, it’s possible he could see some starts out there.

3) Corey Hart’s 2009 was obviously the part of the Behind of the Music where he’s washed up and sniffing glue in the back of the Arby’s parking lot.  Can 2010 be the uplifting turnaround or will he hit rock bottom, turning tricks for glue money?

I’m not very optimistic about Corey Hart, who has done very little over the past season and a half to prove he’s the same player that hit .289/.327/.504 and earned a spot on the All Star Team in the first half of 2008. His .263 second half OBP was one of the factors that nearly cost the Brewers their 2008 playoff appearance. Before the 2009 season, he said all the right things about taking pitches and showing more patience and improved his OBP to .335, but lost over 40 points on his slugging percentage and still looked absolutely lost at the plate in key situations.

For a very gifted athlete, Hart’s defensive abilities are also below average, and he frequently relies on his good speed to cover the fact that his instincts aren’t good at all. As age slows him down, his defensive abilities will likely shift from “below average” to “intolerable.”

Finally, Hart has done himself no favors by saying negative things publicly about Brewer fans and taking the team to arbitration this season. His declining performance, negative attitude toward fans and escalating salary have combined to make him one of the team’s less popular players.

4) Casey McGehee screams to me “platoon player,” which is pretty annoying if you’re hungover.  Can Gamel work his way into the lineup or is his glove just too ugly?

Casey McGehee was one of 2009′s great surprise stories and earned the opportunity to play every day in 2010. He’s certainly a candidate to regress, but he’ll be given every chance to prove his performance in 2009 was not a fluke. With third base occupied, Mat Gamel will likely open 2010 in AAA, and when he returns (and where he plays) will likely be determined by McGehee’s health and performance.

In limited major league opportunities in 2010, Gamel did not look as bad as advertised defensively. He may never win a Gold Glove out there, but I would argue against the common perception that he *needs* to be moved off third base. With that said, McGehee is under team control for five more seasons, so if he produces Gamel will have to be moved to another position or another team to spend significant time in the majors.

5) What would be the most fitting pun-nicknames:  A) Prince “Not A Good” Fielder B) Rickie “On the DL 6 to 8″ Weeks C) Manny “My Control is Sub-” Parra

Fielder’s defense is actually much better than advertised. Like Gamel, he’ll likely never win a Gold Glove, but Fielder was close to league average defensively last season, and for a player of his build and offensive talent, league average defense is pretty impressive. He also seems to display good instincts and make the occasional great play.

As for Rickie Weeks, I’ve heard all the jokes (and made some of my own) about his durability, but the injuries he’s best known for (his wrists) have been season enders, not 6-8 week bumps in the road.

That leaves Manny Parra, and if I have to choose one of the three, I’ll go with him. 2010 could be a pivotal year in his career: At 27 years old, he could still bounce back, have a nice season under Rick Peterson, and become a pitcher a team depends on for another 5-10 years. If he posts another season like 2009, though, he could end up getting non-tendered and scouring the market for a minor league deal.

Parra is almost a lock to win a spot in the rotation in spring training, and his long term success or failure will go a long way towards determining the kind of season the Brewers have.

1) Word out of P.A. is that Ryan Madson will open the season as the closer. What’s the over/under for saves for Madson in 2010? What torturous device would you like to put Lidge over or under?

I will set the over/under for Madson saves at 8 in 2010, and then I will turnaround and bet $10,000 on the OVER (-110) because I think he’ll get somewhere in the mid-20′s. (Lidge blows)

And since he’s such a religious buff, I’d like to put Brad Lidge OVER the Judas Chair.

2) With Crapolanco taking over the 2 hole in the lineup, what kind of numbers do you see him putting up in 2010?

haha, crap in the 2-hole. Good one.

If there’s one thing you can say about Placidome is that his head is gigantic. If there are two things it’s that his head is gigantic and he’s consistent. He doesn’t strike out often, he walks even less, he doesn’t hit homers, or knock runners in. But if your fantasy league hands out points for advancing runners with a productive out or committing errors in the field, Polanco’s your guy.

3) Last year we asked you, “Cole Hamels avoided injuries and got above 30 starts in 2008. But does the 262 innings in 2008 worry you? Can he stay healthy in 2009?” You were, um, a bit optimistic. Now’s your chance to go double or nothing. 2010 — bounce back or thank God we got Halladay?

I’m still optimistic, yeah. The thing that worries me is once guys like Jayson Stark and Buster Olney started calling him a sleeper, he immediately became overvalued. He still hasn’t perfected a third pitch (his curveball is suspect and his cutter gets mocked by Roy Halladay’s cutter), his fastball isn’t what it was in 2008, and when a batter can fight off the fastball and sit on the change, he’s in trouble.

His velocity was in the mid-80′s when he finally started throwing last spring training. At least it’s up to the low 90′s this year. If he can get that up a few more mph’s, it makes his change that much more effective and he can get away with that shitty curveball of his.

I say bounce back year, just not too bouncy.

4) J.A. Happ was one of the luckiest pitchers last year, according to sabermetrics. Are you concerned about his 2010 or do you think sabermetrics is just nerdy way of saying, “I can’t get laid?”

It says a lot about Jay Happ that he was a 12 game winner with the best ERA among Phillies starters and he only started ONE postseason game last year. And that was a -10° game in Colorado where he lasted a measly three innings.

Happ was lucky last year. It always seemed like he was working himself out of a 2-on, 1-out jam every couple innings, but he has a the kind of delivery where he hides the ball well and induces a lot of bad swings from guys. He’s a good fourth starter who will win double-digit games just because the Phillies offense is so damn good.

Although I don’t see him duplicating his under-3.00 ERA from last year.

I got nothing against sabermetrics, either. Granted, you’ll never find me plugging stats into a formula to figure it out myself, but if something interesting is presented to me in a easy-to-read manner, I’m all ears.

That’s not to say that I can’t make fun of their pasty skin and nerdy glasses behind their back, because I do that as well.

5) With Myers gone, which Philly is being relied on to keep their pimp hand strong?

Charlie Manuel, yo. That guy don’t take no fuss.

1)  I’m actually pretty high on David Aardsma.  Others, not so much.  Lots of people are predicting a regression of sorts.  Which side do you fall on?

I like Aardsma, and I like that the M’s were able to recognize his potential and land him for nothing. With that said, while I expect him to remain a pretty good reliever, you have to expect some regression. I mean, you have to, right? He had one of the most extreme flyball rates in baseball and somehow only managed to allow four home runs. That’s not gonna last, especially when you keep in mind all the balls to the track he surrendered. Safeco and the defense will help him, but I could easily see his HR rate doubling. Best case, he survives the season looking only a little worse. More likely, he starts making people a little nervous, and there end up being whispers about Brandon League. With the fly balls and the walks, Aardsma kind of lives on the edge.

2)  I forget where I read it, but someone (I think it was a person, might’ve been a robot) said a great thing about Milton Bradley.  I’m paraphrasing — shoot, I can’t even remember where I read it — notice the Mariner fans’ excitement the day after the Mariners got Milton Bradley.  A year ago, the Cubs fans were excited about Bradley too. At one point, the Rangers were excited about Bradley.  The Padres were excited.  And so on.  Yet, it never ends well.  How will the Milton Bradley era in Seattle end?  What do you see from him this year?

I’d say it ended fairly well in Texas and Oakland, and San Diego has nothing but nice things to say about him. But anyway, it’s important to recognize the difference in environment in Chicago vs. Seattle. Here we don’t have that media, that manager, and those fans. Here we have Junior. If any situation is right for Bradley, it’s this one. I don’t expect him to remain perfectly healthy, and he’s not going to be a source of major power, but there’s no reason why he can’t end up at or around his career averages barring a mental meltdown. Better real-life player than fantasy player, probably.

3)  F-Her, Cliff Lee — Sweet!  Then what?  Give me what you think the Mariners rotation will be.

Obviously, everyone focuses on the 1-2, for good reason. Behind the two aces, we’ll go with Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and one of Jason Vargas/Doug Fister/Luke French/Garrett Olson. That’s the four-man competition taking place right now in Arizona. You’re a fantasy site, right? In that case, the only one of these guys worth considering is RRS, as he’s poised to take wonderful advantage of the ballpark and the defense yet again. If Jarrod Washburn can do what he did in 2009, RRS could, too. You can keep your eye on Snell, I suppose, but I’d keep an eye from afar.

4) We have our own thoughts on Verducci, but he did flag Felix Hernandez.  You have any concerns or would you like to tell Verducci where to shove his flag?

I actually discussed this very topic here on my own site.  (Note from Grey:  That’s actually a great article about Verducci that I think everyone should read.)  Bottom line: Verducci’s heart is in the right place, but his analysis is flawed, and the people who’ve investigated his theory haven’t uncovered an effect. So there’s no evidence that there’s anything to this. I will always be a little worried about Felix, but that’s because pitching is dangerous, and he’s my baby. I don’t think we have any reason to believe that his 2009 workload will have a negative impact on his 2010 performance.

5) If the Mariners GM, Jack Zduriencik, started an office fantasy baseball league, what would be the most non-traditional fantasy stat? A) UZR B) Speed to first C) Pitcher First Pitch Strikes D) FRAGU — Fielding Runs Against Glove Upside E) BABIP@SLVSAERLP – Batting Average for Balls In Play @ Sea Level vs. Arbitration-Eligible Replacement-Level Players

Probably OBP. Z isn’t a stats guy. Z is just smart enough to hire stats guys. If Tony Blengino started the pool, though, then we’re talking acronyms with things that aren’t even letters anymore.

1) There’s been a lot said/typed/blogged about the Red Sox offense having a little less punch than years past.  Last year, the Red Sox had 3 players above 99 Runs (Pedroia – 115, Bay – 103, Youk – 99) and 3 above 94 RBIs (Bay – 119, Ortiz – 99, Youk – 94).   Do you think any Red Sox will scale those Runs/RBI levels this year?

I don’t think you have to worry about the runs totals.  This Red Sox team is built every season to do one thing better than any other team in baseball: GET ON BASE.  There’s a lot of questions that RBI totals will suffer, but if hitters are reaching base, guys will drive them in.  Remember all those guys Vernon Wells drove in a few seasons ago?  You only get to do that with opportunities.  The Red Sox will have many opportunities.

The Red Sox were 2nd in the league in OBP and 2nd in wOBA.  That 2009 team was a very talented offensive ballclub, even with dysfunction at third base and shortstop for the entire year.   While Jason Varitek had a hot April, he quickly flamed out as well.

After you factor in the regression of the current 2009 holdovers and the additions to the club (Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro), the Red Sox don’t look that much worse offensively.  Is someone going to hit 40 homeruns? Probably not.  But if the top of the order continues to get on base, there’s no reason why Martinez, Youkilis, and Ortiz don’t have enough opportunities to drive in 100 runs a piece.  CHONE projects this Red Sox team to score 5.3 runs per game, good for 858 over the season.  Only 9 runs less than the World Series winning 2007 team that had two prime time 40 HR players.  But the Boston media says our offense is terrible.  I guess I should believe them instead with all the data they have to back up their claims.  Right.

Ellsbury and Pedroia shouldn’t have a problem topping 100 runs a piece, unless Jacoby makes all the Pink Hats cry and proves his OBP bump was a giant fluke.  If Martinez is spelled enough behind the plate and gets a big chunk of time at 1B/DH, he could do it with enough at bats.  Youk will most likely need a 30+ HR season to eclipse 100 runs, but shouldn’t have a problem leading the RBI charge and driving in 100 on his own.  Losing Bay won’t affect specific player totals as much as Jon Heyman tells us so.

2) Ditto the first question’s opener regarding the Red Sox improved defense.  How much of an impact ERA/WHIP-wise do you think this has for the Sox staff?

Any time a team’s defense improves, you’re only doing the pitching staff a favor.  This is why Scott Kazmir continued being called an “ace” when he had that ridiculous tampa bay defense behind him the past 1.5 years.  It’s the same reason why Jarrod Washburn suddenly became a star with Franklin Gutierrez’s black hole of a glove bailing him out in center…and then he goes to Detriot and goes down in a fiery blaze of nerd rage.

Once the ball touches the bat, the pitcher has been removed from the resultant outcome.  With the exception of the ever confusing antics of Tim Wakefield who seems to be immune to statistical studies and logic like Tom Cruise and the Church of Scientology, the Boston pitching staff should have a slight blanket-drop in their opposing BABIP.  However, the park dimensions still won’t favor flyball pitchers they way Petco or Safeco does.  Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, both strong ground ball pitchers, should benefit the most from this defensive improvement, and would be the most likely candidates of favorable returns showing up in their ERA and WHIP.

3) Can you gives us the over/under/push on the following:  Ortiz – .260/25 HRs, Beltre .275/15 HRs, Pedroia .307/15 HRs, Youk .280/25 HRs, Jason Veritek .220/7 HRs, Ellsbury 50 SBs.

Ortiz – Push/Over
If Papi gets 600 ABs, I think he still has a shot at 30 HRs.  Even when considering his atrocious first two months, his power numbers came back strong to finish out 2009.  Our colleague Aaron did a piece on this, and I tend to agree with him.  His increasing strikeouts give me pause about the batting average though.

Beltre – Over/Push
I think this is an easy call.  Beltre was walloping 25 HRs in Safeco before he almost neutered himself last year.  While Fenway does reduce homeruns very slightly compared to average, it’s still more favorable for power production than Safeco.  Beltre should get right to 25 HR, doubtful he’ll hit much more than that, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him add 30-40 Fenway doubles off the wall.  I’d expect a line similar to his 2007 production, maybe a tad higher with the Monster helping his batting average.

Youk – Push/Over
Youk’s increasing strikeout rate tells me two things.  First, he’s more a slave to a fluctuating BABIP, that cruised up to .359 last year.  While it’s not the first time he’s done it, the less I see a player putting balls into play, the more I expect their BABIPs to be closer to the average, regardless of high line drive rates.  I will, however, look at his increasing K rate as him striving to drive more balls out of the park, and expect his HR/FB%, which has increased 3 straight years, to continue to give him 25-30 HR power.  I’ll say this is the year Youk finally hits 30, but not much more.

Pedroia – Over/Push
After a 30 point drop in BABIP from his 2007 and 2008 line, Pedrioa only hit .297 last year.  A 10 point improvement doesn’t seem out of the picture, especially when his drop in BABIP also coincided with a drop in strikeouts.  Less strikeouts means more balls in play, which means more possible “seeing-eye singles”, at least more than you get from a strikeout, which is zero.  15 homeruns seems to be Pedroia best aiming point for homeruns, and I’ll agree with that.  I don’t think he’ll ever have the power potential Robbie Cano has, even without the rocket shoes Yankee Stadium gives left handed batters.

Varitek – Under/Under
Varitek will be lucky if he gets in 50 games.  There’s no reason to put his bat in the lineup, and if you’re giving Victor a break, one of the younger defensive minded catchers in the sox system would be a better bet.  I guess if you have you worry about drafting Varitek in your fantasy league, you’re probably Omar Minaya.  Even if Varitek plays more than he should, I’d steer clear of him anyway.  As much as I love the guy, I don’t want him anywhere near the batter’s box.

Ellsbury – Over
50+ shouldn’t be a problem for Jacoby.  He could go over 70 again if he actually batted 7th-8^th, but I won’t get into my disdain for Ellsbury in the #1 spot instead of Drew.

4) The Red Sox have 3 starters that are arguably in the top 20 fantasy SPs in Beckett, Lester, and Lackey and two interesting later-round picks in Buchholz and Dice-K.  Whom of this bunch do you think will be the best and worst values based on their expected draft picks?

Lester and Dice-BB, respectively.

I’m still amazed at the lack of Cy Young support Lester got last year, all due to a fluky BABIP-induced April.  If you put his statistics up against the 2009 lines of Sabathia, Verlander, Hernandez, and Halladay, it’s difficult to tell them apart.  I even did it for you a long time ago!

Lester seems to be the last pitcher picked in the tier after Lincecum / Grienke.  I find it surprising.  I always wait on starters anyway, and in a redraft league, he’d be my first target.  His ADP is the end fo the 5^th round right now, which is basically the similar production your paying for those aforementioned players 2 rounds up.  Draft your offense heavy and wait for Jon.  The value you pick up by getting that offensive player in Round 3 instead of Sabathia (Votto!) justifies this enough for me.

I really won’t say much about Dice-BB.  Until a pitcher walks less than 5 batters per nine, he belongs nowhere near anyone’s fantasy team.  You can’t predict him having an ERA anomaly again like 2008, so why waste the draft pick on it? The Casey Kelly-era can’t come soon enough in this town.

5) Jim Rice was one of the more controversial HOF nominees if you define ‘controversy’ by causing the baseball bloggerati and sabermatricians to convulse (me included).  What’s your opinion on his HOF credentials?  What do you think Theo Epstein’s would be?  And if you could swap him out for another more deserving ex-Red Sox player, whom would it be?

A disclaimer: I love Jim Rice.  He was one of my favorite players when I was a kid.  Back when you didn’t need season tickets to sniff Fenway’s gates for less than a 300% markup, my father used to sit us down on the 3rd base line so I could get a good view of him.  He’s outspoken, ballsy, and was a spectacular person, even though he was rough around the edges with the Boston media.  Then again, if I played for the Red Sox, I’d probably react to the CHB the way Rice and Carl Everett did.

As much as I love Jim Rice, I know he’s in that bottom rung of Hall of Famers.  The guys that eventually get in because they’ve been around so long, or because someone says he was a “feared” hitter enough times to make people believe it.

Personally, my Hall of Fame standards are high.  I abhor the thought of a “Hall of Very Good”, but I also understand that in practice enshrinement into the Hall is a subjective matter, and the amount of equations I throw at people won’t change a thing.  At this point, I figure it’s more important to focus on making cases for players who have been unfairly snubbed rather than unfairly enshrined.  Lame cop out? Probably, but it’s not like you can kick someone out of the Hall.  I’d rather not waste my energy complaining about them.

I think my opinion would be the same as Epstein’s.  “For everything Jim Rice did for the Red Sox, we’re happy to see him be honored as a great player in our sport.”  Then I’d cry myself to sleep in my math books, disgusted at my politically correct PR stunt.

If I could/had to swap him out, it’d be for my other favorite player in my younger years, Dwight Evans.  Overall, just as productive at the plate(127 OPS+ to Rice’s 128 OPS+), but an absolutely amazing fielder.  From what I remember, he was Rice at the plate, but played right field with as much skill and grace as JD Drew does, albeit with a much superior mustache than the one Drew sports from time to time.

(Note from Rudy:  Sorry Razzball readers that I went ‘serious’ instead of our usual facetious with the last question.  I just had to ask a Sox fan about Jim Rice’s HOF credentials.)

1) Last year, the Rays offense was a stat projector’s nightmare.  BJ Upton (.241/11HRs) and Burrell fell well below projections while Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist came out of nowhere to put together some top-notch middle infield seasons.  In 2010, whom do you think will be the biggest hitting surprise and disappointments on the Rays?

Well, I don’t know how much of a surprise it will be, but I fully expect Pat Burrell and BJ Upton to rebound significantly from their ’09 seasons. Will Burrell hit 30+ home runs like he did in ’07-’08? Probably not. But supposedly he is healthier, and I have to believe that the embarrassment of ’09 and the lure of a new contract will drive him to be better. Like Burrell, Upton was never 100% in ’09. His shoulder has been an issue in each of the past seven seasons. If he can stay healthy and rediscover his ability to use the entire field, this could be his break-out season.

As for disappointments, I worry about Carl Crawford. There is going to be a lot written about his pending free agency and a lot of questions will be asked. Every time the Rays play on the road he is going to face the same questions. And it will be a circus whenever the Rays play the Yankees. And it will all erupt as we get closer to the trading deadline. Will he be able to keep that from affecting him mentally? That is a lot to ask for.

2) The Rays remain one of the more productive SB teams.  Give the SB over/under on the following:  Crawford – 45, BJ Upton – 40, Jason Bartlett – 20, Ben Zobrist – 15, Evan Longoria – 10, Carlos Pena – 1.

Crawford should be an easy over. If you look at his stolen base rates, he always struggles later in the season. The turf at the Trop takes its toll on his legs. This off-season he installed a new workout program to keep his legs fresh throughout the season.

I’m going to go under on Upton because there is a good chance he will spend the majority of the season batting in the 7-hole, with some decent bats in front of him. He just might not have the opportunities.

Bartlett: Over (Easy. He will leading off most days.)

Zobrist: Under (Should be close, but he is getting older, and was never that fast)

Longoria: Under (9 last year, but in only 9 attempts)

Pena: Over (Even Dioner Navarro had 5 last year. Everybody runs under JoeMa)

3) The Rays have been flush in #3-#5 starting pitchers over the past couple of years (including the traded Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel) – some with upside, some without.  For 2010 purposes only, do you any of the following quartet have a good shot at a sub-4.00 ERA and/or 150+Ks – Jeff Niemann, David Price, Andy Sonnanstine, and Wade Davis.

At their best, Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine will give you a 4.00 ERA and 150 Ks. Sonny is more likely going to be in Durham as the emergency starter, so he is a ‘no.” Niemann should be close to those numbers, but he seems to need extra rest a lot. Both Price and Davis will be free to throw 200 innings this year. Both will give you something closer to 170-180 Ks. I think Davis will be around a 4.00 ERA. The big question in my mind is Price. I think he can be anywhere from 3.50 to 4.50. And I wouldn’t be surprised at either end.

4) Which of the following prospects is the best option for ‘keeper’ leagues:  Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, or Sean Rodriguez?  Will any of them see extended playing in 2010?

In a keeper league I would want them in this order: Jennings, Davis, Rodriguez, Brignac.

I don’t think Davis will be anything better than a #3 starter, but he should be dependable in that role. He is the type of pitcher that you can stick in the lineup and you will have a good idea what he is going to give you each year. And he is durable enough that he should stay healthy. Jennings on the other hand, has a chance to be something very special. And if he can stay healthy, he will be.

Brignac is no longer much of a prospect with the bat. It will be decent, but never very good. Rodriguez on the other hand should hit for decent power at the big league level and he will see time at 2B, SS, 3B and in the OF.

Davis should give the Rays 32 + starts this season. Rodriguez will likely get 80+ starts this season and could be an everyday player in 2011. Brignac could platoon at second base but may never be an everyday player with the Rays. And as good as Jennings is, he is still relatively inexperienced. And the Rays value experience in their prospects. I would not be surprised if Jennings doesn’t make his debut until 2011.

5) Now that the Twins have moved out of the Metrodome, there’s no doubt that the Rays play in the ugliest field in baseball (feel free to argue though).  The Rays don’t even have the nicest stadium named after an orange juice brand (Minute Maid > Tropicana).  If the Rays were able to get a new stadium from the city, which of the following nods to the Rays illustrious past would make the best attraction:

a) Chuck Lamar’s Left Field Pawn Shop – Bring us your old and washed-up stuff and we’ll pay you too much for it!  Bring in unused useless items and we’ll swap them up for future gems.
b) Sweet Lou’s Tropical Bar & Lounge – Tired of going to bars and beating yourself up for not taking the hottest chick home?  Come to Sweet Lou’s where you can take a break and be congratulated for taking the 2nd ugliest girl in the place home.
c) Wade Boggs’ Chicken & Beer Shack – Chicken only available before games.  Beer only available after games.  During games, you can play arcade games preset to almost be at high score.  Throw in a token amount of time and celebrate your milestone!
d) Dewon Brazelton’s Pitching Area – See how fast you can throw!  Speed only credited if the ball is thrown outside the provided strike zone.
e) Rocco Baldelli’s Trattoria – Open periodically when the chef isn’t sick, injured, or tired.

Ha! Yes, the Rays need a new stadium, that is more because The Trop is located in a terrible spot. And yes it is ugly, but watching a game there is very underrated. The seats are comfortable. The sightlines are great. When the crowds are large (rare, I know) it is reminiscent of the Metrodome in the 80s and 90s (very loud, with a great homefield advantage).

And for the life of me, I have never understood why domes are taboo in baseball. We are talking about a sport that comes to a screeching halt in rain. And yet there are at least 6 teams in the NFL that play in domes and that is somehow OK.

Would I prefer to attend a game outside on a nice 80degree day with no humidity? Of course. But that ain’t St. Pete.

(Note:  Cork diplomatically didn’t choose one of the above so please feel free to choose one in the comments below.  We’ll make sure to forward the winner to Tampa Bay management.)

1) Aside from perhaps Matt Wieters, there wasn’t a player who failed to live up to their huge hype than Chris Davis.  Do you think he can manage a .260 / 25+ HR season whilst he strike out at a rate that would make Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds blush?

I don’t think a .260/25+ home run season is unreasonable for Davis, particularly given that he had a .238/21 home run season last year while playing roughly two-thirds of the season.  But realistically, hitting .260 with 25-30 home runs probably isn’t going to cut it for Davis to keep his job — he’s always going to strike out a lot, but he’s got to add some walks and put up power numbers more like he did in 2008.  I certainly think he’s capable of doing that — he hit at every level in the minors, hit in the majors in 2008, and doesn’t turn 24 until later this month.  But it is going to come down to improving his contact rate — at 150 Ks in a season, he is a potential All Star.  At 200-225 Ks in a season, he’s going to be out of a job.

2) We felt Josh Hamilton was overrated for fantasy baseball purposes last year but even we weren’t expecting just 336 ABs and 10 HRs.  Is expecting .280/25/100 too optimistic?

It is hard to say with Josh.  I’m thinking that we, as Rangers fans, need to think of him as another J.D. Drew, a guy who is going to make you crazy by missing time with what seem to be minor injuries, and who is always going to be dealing with nagging injuries.  If he plays 130 games this year, he should be good for 30+ homers, and with the Rangers moving him out of CF to save on the wear and tear, he should have a bounceback year.

3) Let’s play over/under with HR/SB:  Kinsler 25/25, Cruz 25/15, Borbon 10/30, Andrus 7/35.

4) It’s been, well, ever since a Rangers starting pitcher has been considered draftable in most fantasy baseball formats.  Convince us that 1 or more of the Rangers pitchers might be one of the top 50 pitchers this year.

For starters, the Ranger defense is going to help the pitchers’ ERAs.  The defense has been below average for most of the last decade, but in 2009, with guys like Elvis, Kinsler and Cruz providing plus defense, the Rangers had one of the best rates of converting balls in play into outs in the league.  That translates into better ERAs.  The two guys who I think are worth a look fantasy-wise are Rich Harden and Colby Lewis.  Harden, everyone knows about, a guy who has great stuff and hasn’t stayed healthy.  Lewis is an interesting case, a guy who went to Japan and was great, and who the projection systems all seem to think will translate well back in the U.S.  He’s a guy I think is worth a flyer on, because if he does translate what he did in Japan to the U.S., he’d be a steal.

5) What’s more likely to happen in 2010:

a) An in-game fight breaks out and Nolan Ryan jumps on the field and gives someone a headlock.

b) The Ranger catchers combine for less extra base hits than letters in their collective last names.

c) The new Ranger owners call up Tom Hicks and Dubya for ownership advice.

d) Vlad Guerrero and Josh Hamilton both play 140+ games.

I think c.  Dubya wasn’t a bad owner (although he was really just the figurehead for the money guys), and with Hicks, well, they might want advice from him to see what he did, so they can avoid his mistakes.

1) Cameron Maybin looks like an unrefined five-tool stud like a young Burt Reynolds.  Yay or nay?  15 homers and 20 steals in 2010, you taking the over or under for each?

I’d say a push on those numbers for Maybin. I think 15 homers is a very good possibility, but may be around his upper limit for this season. I have a feeling like he won’t be pushing the basepaths so much this year, so I may take the under on those 20 steals. His spot in the lineup will be low in the order, and probably won’t give a whole lot of SB opportunities.

2) Josh Johnson showed up on the Verducci list.  We have our own take on Verducci. I’m sure this gives you pause on Johnson in 2010, but how much?

I have a little concern for Josh Johnson, but not enough to label him a major injury risk. He did seem to tire at the end of last season, but the peripherals were solid into the late months, and I would not take any month splits too seriously anyway. I think you’re looking at another excellent year for JJ.

3) Ricky Nolasco’s K/BB is a thing of beauty.  His FIP last year says he’s extremely unlucky.  I think if he avoids injury, he can be great.  What’s your prediction for Nolasco for 2010?

My thoughts on Nolasco’s 2010 performance? 3.80 or so ERA, strikeouts on 22% of his batters faced, walks in 6% or so of his batters faced, and a very happy fantasy owner. I share your sentiment on Nolasco being very good in 2010.

4) Is Gaby Sanchez the opening day starter?  What kind of numbers do you see from him in 2010?

Gaby Sanchez is likely to be the Opening Day starter at first base, but I don’t expect a whole lot. Projections have him at around the same wOBA as Jorge Cantu, but he won’t have the RBI opportunities to rack up good numbers in that respect. I also don’t think he’ll play the full season, since I think the Marlins will find someone to hit righties occasionally for him. Expect some 450 PA and maybe 12 home runs and a solid average and OBP.

5) The Marlins seem to change their stadium’s name every year.  This year they will play at Sun Life Stadium (subject to change depending on post time), which was previously Land Shark Stadium, Dolphin Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, Pro Player Park and Joe Robbie Stadium.  What do you think the name of their 2011 stadium will be?  A) Mets South Stadium B) The Very Humidor  C) Obama’s Health Care Park D) Does it matter, no one goes anyway.

I’ll take the last choice. I’m going to a game or two this year, but I don’t live down there, so I have an excuse. Get out there and watch the Marlins at (insert name here) Stadium!

1) The fantasy baseball expectations of Matt Wieters last year were ridiculous – nothing short of Piazza’s 1993 rookie year (.318/81/35/112) would’ve satisifed them.  A year later, expectations are in check and our CHONE/ZiPS-based projection systems have him with a modest line of:  .286/55 R /14 HR /63 RBI.  Do you think he’ll surpass any of those levels and, if so, by how much?

I think those expectations are pretty spot-on, as I have him projected to hit .287/.351/.455 right now. The RBI and R has a lot to do with where he hits in the batting order, which I’m not sure of.  I do think he has a chance to break out, but am not really looking for that to happen for at least another year. Adjusting to hitting major league pitching is hard – especially when one also has to adjust to catching major league pitching

2) The Orioles have a number of starting pitcher prospects.  Rank the following in order based on your 2010 expectations:  Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman.

Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman, Berken. I think Matusz can be an above average starting pitcher already; Bergesen around average; Tillman and Berken more of like 4/5 starters, with the latter maybe seeing some time in the bullpen as well (and the former have the much higher ceiling).

3) Which of the Orioles outfielders will have the best year at the plate: Nick (Sparkakis!) Markakis, Adam Jones, or Nolan Reimold?

Markakis. He’s the only one who I think can hit .300, put up a .380 OBP, and slug close to .500. I don’t think Jones or Reimold will get to any of those marks in 2010 – and especially not all three.

4) Brian Roberts’ SB totals have gone from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past 3 years.  Over/under 30 SBs in 2010?

I’ll take under 30, especially since he already has missed some time this spring with back issues. Roberts is getting into his mid 30s, so while he should still be able to steal quite a few bases just based on smart baserunning, I don’t think his speed will stay top notch for that much longer.

5) Since you follow the Orioles, we assume you live in the Baltimore area and, thus, must have watched ‘The Wire’.  So, which Wire character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?  (personality vs. physical)  If you haven’t seen the Wire, please explain yourself.

I do live in Baltimore, and I have seen The Wire, but only the first season (and a couple episodes of the second). It was a good show – and I can definitely tell why people consider it one of the best TV shows of all time – but it just didn’t grab me that strongly. I’m hoping to come back to it at some point. I guess in light of that, I can’t really answer the question well. I think Angelos has finally allowed the baseball people to be in charge, which is for the best.

Rudy:  Sheeeeeeeettt, I would’ve thought all Baltimoretonians were required to watch The Wire and all Barry Levinson + Jon Waters movies.  The easy answer to “Which ‘The Wire’ character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?” is The Greek from Season 2 as he 1) also owns a big organization, 2) works best when he keeps a low profile and let’s lieutenants take care of the day-to-day and 3) is of Greek descent (Angelos is Greek-American).  Alternatives answers include Mayor Clarence Royce (profited off civil service – Angelos made his money in class-action suits – and ran the city into the ground), Police Commissioner Ervin Burrell (misran the Police Department and put too much faith in bad lieutentants like Deputy Rawls), and drug kingpin Avon Barksdale (gets a little too overexcited when someone disrespects him by encroaching on his territory *cough* Washington Senators *cough*)

1) Garrett Jones’s 2009, small sample talking or sign of things to come in 2010?

Can it be somewhere in between? On one hand, he hit 21 homers in 82 games and besides an early surge, he was fairly consistent over that time. Things like that don’t happen by complete accident. On the flip side, he’s played almost 600 games in Triple-A and his OPS there is below .800. That’s also not an accident. Which is to say, I’m willing to concede that Jones made some kind of step forward in 2009 and that he’s a better player than I ever expected, but he’s also not going to hit 40 homers in a season either. At least, I don’t think he is.

2) Andrew McCutchen, who Razzball has affectionately nicknamed The Dread Pirate, had a tremendous rookie year.  I’ve sung my praises for what we should expect in 2010.  What do you expect?

First off, I love that nickname and may, erm, pirate it for my own uses. Secondly, I’d expect maybe a little bit of a sophomore slump for ‘Cutch, if only because his .471 slugging percentage in 108 games with the Pirates was higher than his SLG in any full season in the minor leagues. There’s always the chance that 2009 represented a big step forward for McCutchen (his numbers at Triple-A were actually a little better than his numbers in Pittsburgh before his promotion), but if he tapers off to about a .400-.430 SLG with 12-15 homers for the full season, I wouldn’t be surprised. Like with Garrett Jones, it’s one of those things that we’re just going to have to watch and see.

3) Do you have any hope for Andy LaRoche or are the Pirates biding their time for Pedro Alvarez?

Maybe I’m crazy, but I do still have hope for LaRoche. He thumped the ball in May (.330/.411/.457) and September (.313/.359/.552) and while his final line wasn’t all that great, it was a big improvement over his struggles with the Dodgers and Pirates prior to 2009. He’s also got a good glove at third base, and the club seems hopeful that if Alvarez is able to stay at third base for a while, that LaRoche will be able to move to second, where his bat should play much better than it does at a corner.

4) Steve Pearce has 8 homers and a .304 OBP through 342 major league ABs over the course of 3 years.  Will he ever breakout or will Jones play first to make room for Church vs. righties?

The Pirates’ right field/first base situation is a pretty complicated one heading into this season. I think the team’s default position is to let Jones play right and give Jeff Clement the first shot at first base, then adjust based on how Clement performs, how Andy LaRoche is hitting at third base, where Pedro Alvarez is, whether Akinori Iwamura is still in a Pirate uniform by mid-season, and how Jose Tabata develops. Pearce seemingly gets lost in the shuffle there, except he’s the only right-handed player (besides Tabata, who I think probably needs a full season at Triple-A) in the mix. He has a pretty big platoon split in the minors (.991 OPS vs. lefties, .831 vs. righties) and so I think there’s some value in him spelling Jones, Clement, Church, Alvarez, or whoever at one of those position against tough lefties. I think his chances at playing every day are pretty much done, though (remember that he was only really a prospect because he was in the Pirates’ system in the first place, his one great year came because he was sort of bafflingly asked to repeat High-A after a good showing there the year before, and when he hit his way up to a September call-up that season McCutchen and the shell of Neil Walker were the Bucs’ only real prospects at that time, which caused people to get excited about him). And now my longest answer is about Steve Pearce. Great. This is life as a Pirate fan.
5) Back in the 80s, many Pirate players found themselves embroiled in baseball’s cocaine scandal of 1985.  It turned out that the players came upon the Devil’s Dandruff from a connection of their mascot, the Parrot.  Then when the trial came, the Parrot talked, turning state’s evidence and snitching out many Pirate players.  Nothing would ever happen like this now because:  A) The Parrot knows his place.  B) Since the 80s better, undetectable drugs have been designed to replace cocaine, like Red Bull. C) Lastings Milledge can’t stand snitches.

The answer has several components. One is that the Pirates have brought a cartoonish Pirate mascot (the Jolly Roger) into the fold, and he presumably has guns to keep the Parrot in line. The second is that no one on the team makes enough money to support a drug habit at the moment. The third is that it’s not so much that Lastings Milledge hates snitches, as I think he and Andrew McCutchen should film a low-budget cable access buddy-cop show that shows on local TV at 1 AM. I would watch this show.