Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rangers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Adam J. Morris of Razzball’s and Princess Vespa’s favorite Ranger blog Lone Star Ball.

1) Aside from perhaps Matt Wieters, there wasn’t a player who failed to live up to their huge hype than Chris Davis.  Do you think he can manage a .260 / 25+ HR season whilst he strike out at a rate that would make Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds blush?

I don’t think a .260/25+ home run season is unreasonable for Davis, particularly given that he had a .238/21 home run season last year while playing roughly two-thirds of the season.  But realistically, hitting .260 with 25-30 home runs probably isn’t going to cut it for Davis to keep his job — he’s always going to strike out a lot, but he’s got to add some walks and put up power numbers more like he did in 2008.  I certainly think he’s capable of doing that — he hit at every level in the minors, hit in the majors in 2008, and doesn’t turn 24 until later this month.  But it is going to come down to improving his contact rate — at 150 Ks in a season, he is a potential All Star.  At 200-225 Ks in a season, he’s going to be out of a job.

2) We felt Josh Hamilton was overrated for fantasy baseball purposes last year but even we weren’t expecting just 336 ABs and 10 HRs.  Is expecting .280/25/100 too optimistic?

It is hard to say with Josh.  I’m thinking that we, as Rangers fans, need to think of him as another J.D. Drew, a guy who is going to make you crazy by missing time with what seem to be minor injuries, and who is always going to be dealing with nagging injuries.  If he plays 130 games this year, he should be good for 30+ homers, and with the Rangers moving him out of CF to save on the wear and tear, he should have a bounceback year.

3) Let’s play over/under with HR/SB:  Kinsler 25/25, Cruz 25/15, Borbon 10/30, Andrus 7/35.

4) It’s been, well, ever since a Rangers starting pitcher has been considered draftable in most fantasy baseball formats.  Convince us that 1 or more of the Rangers pitchers might be one of the top 50 pitchers this year.

For starters, the Ranger defense is going to help the pitchers’ ERAs.  The defense has been below average for most of the last decade, but in 2009, with guys like Elvis, Kinsler and Cruz providing plus defense, the Rangers had one of the best rates of converting balls in play into outs in the league.  That translates into better ERAs.  The two guys who I think are worth a look fantasy-wise are Rich Harden and Colby Lewis.  Harden, everyone knows about, a guy who has great stuff and hasn’t stayed healthy.  Lewis is an interesting case, a guy who went to Japan and was great, and who the projection systems all seem to think will translate well back in the U.S.  He’s a guy I think is worth a flyer on, because if he does translate what he did in Japan to the U.S., he’d be a steal.

5) What’s more likely to happen in 2010:

a) An in-game fight breaks out and Nolan Ryan jumps on the field and gives someone a headlock.

b) The Ranger catchers combine for less extra base hits than letters in their collective last names.

c) The new Ranger owners call up Tom Hicks and Dubya for ownership advice.

d) Vlad Guerrero and Josh Hamilton both play 140+ games.

I think c.  Dubya wasn’t a bad owner (although he was really just the figurehead for the money guys), and with Hicks, well, they might want advice from him to see what he did, so they can avoid his mistakes.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Marlins Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Marlin Maniac.

1) Cameron Maybin looks like an unrefined five-tool stud like a young Burt Reynolds.  Yay or nay?  15 homers and 20 steals in 2010, you taking the over or under for each?

I’d say a push on those numbers for Maybin. I think 15 homers is a very good possibility, but may be around his upper limit for this season. I have a feeling like he won’t be pushing the basepaths so much this year, so I may take the under on those 20 steals. His spot in the lineup will be low in the order, and probably won’t give a whole lot of SB opportunities.

2) Josh Johnson showed up on the Verducci list.  We have our own take on Verducci. I’m sure this gives you pause on Johnson in 2010, but how much?

I have a little concern for Josh Johnson, but not enough to label him a major injury risk. He did seem to tire at the end of last season, but the peripherals were solid into the late months, and I would not take any month splits too seriously anyway. I think you’re looking at another excellent year for JJ.

3) Ricky Nolasco’s K/BB is a thing of beauty.  His FIP last year says he’s extremely unlucky.  I think if he avoids injury, he can be great.  What’s your prediction for Nolasco for 2010?

My thoughts on Nolasco’s 2010 performance? 3.80 or so ERA, strikeouts on 22% of his batters faced, walks in 6% or so of his batters faced, and a very happy fantasy owner. I share your sentiment on Nolasco being very good in 2010.

4) Is Gaby Sanchez the opening day starter?  What kind of numbers do you see from him in 2010?

Gaby Sanchez is likely to be the Opening Day starter at first base, but I don’t expect a whole lot. Projections have him at around the same wOBA as Jorge Cantu, but he won’t have the RBI opportunities to rack up good numbers in that respect. I also don’t think he’ll play the full season, since I think the Marlins will find someone to hit righties occasionally for him. Expect some 450 PA and maybe 12 home runs and a solid average and OBP.

5) The Marlins seem to change their stadium’s name every year.  This year they will play at Sun Life Stadium (subject to change depending on post time), which was previously Land Shark Stadium, Dolphin Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, Pro Player Park and Joe Robbie Stadium.  What do you think the name of their 2011 stadium will be?  A) Mets South Stadium B) The Very Humidor  C) Obama’s Health Care Park D) Does it matter, no one goes anyway.

I’ll take the last choice. I’m going to a game or two this year, but I don’t live down there, so I have an excuse. Get out there and watch the Marlins at (insert name here) Stadium!

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Orioles Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies (don’t fret, NJ and Philly readers – this refers to Camden Yards and not the most dangerous city of 2004, 2005, and 2009 – Camden, NJ)

1) The fantasy baseball expectations of Matt Wieters last year were ridiculous – nothing short of Piazza’s 1993 rookie year (.318/81/35/112) would’ve satisifed them.  A year later, expectations are in check and our CHONE/ZiPS-based projection systems have him with a modest line of:  .286/55 R /14 HR /63 RBI.  Do you think he’ll surpass any of those levels and, if so, by how much?

I think those expectations are pretty spot-on, as I have him projected to hit .287/.351/.455 right now. The RBI and R has a lot to do with where he hits in the batting order, which I’m not sure of.  I do think he has a chance to break out, but am not really looking for that to happen for at least another year. Adjusting to hitting major league pitching is hard – especially when one also has to adjust to catching major league pitching

2) The Orioles have a number of starting pitcher prospects.  Rank the following in order based on your 2010 expectations:  Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman.

Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman, Berken. I think Matusz can be an above average starting pitcher already; Bergesen around average; Tillman and Berken more of like 4/5 starters, with the latter maybe seeing some time in the bullpen as well (and the former have the much higher ceiling).

3) Which of the Orioles outfielders will have the best year at the plate: Nick (Sparkakis!) Markakis, Adam Jones, or Nolan Reimold?

Markakis. He’s the only one who I think can hit .300, put up a .380 OBP, and slug close to .500. I don’t think Jones or Reimold will get to any of those marks in 2010 – and especially not all three.

4) Brian Roberts’ SB totals have gone from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past 3 years.  Over/under 30 SBs in 2010?

I’ll take under 30, especially since he already has missed some time this spring with back issues. Roberts is getting into his mid 30s, so while he should still be able to steal quite a few bases just based on smart baserunning, I don’t think his speed will stay top notch for that much longer.

5) Since you follow the Orioles, we assume you live in the Baltimore area and, thus, must have watched ‘The Wire’.  So, which Wire character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?  (personality vs. physical)  If you haven’t seen the Wire, please explain yourself.

I do live in Baltimore, and I have seen The Wire, but only the first season (and a couple episodes of the second). It was a good show – and I can definitely tell why people consider it one of the best TV shows of all time – but it just didn’t grab me that strongly. I’m hoping to come back to it at some point. I guess in light of that, I can’t really answer the question well. I think Angelos has finally allowed the baseball people to be in charge, which is for the best.

Rudy:  Sheeeeeeeettt, I would’ve thought all Baltimoretonians were required to watch The Wire and all Barry Levinson + Jon Waters movies.  The easy answer to “Which ‘The Wire’ character does Peter Angelos most remind you of?” is The Greek from Season 2 as he 1) also owns a big organization, 2) works best when he keeps a low profile and let’s lieutenants take care of the day-to-day and 3) is of Greek descent (Angelos is Greek-American).  Alternatives answers include Mayor Clarence Royce (profited off civil service – Angelos made his money in class-action suits – and ran the city into the ground), Police Commissioner Ervin Burrell (misran the Police Department and put too much faith in bad lieutentants like Deputy Rawls), and drug kingpin Avon Barksdale (gets a little too overexcited when someone disrespects him by encroaching on his territory *cough* Washington Senators *cough*)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Pirates Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?

1) Garrett Jones’s 2009, small sample talking or sign of things to come in 2010?

Can it be somewhere in between? On one hand, he hit 21 homers in 82 games and besides an early surge, he was fairly consistent over that time. Things like that don’t happen by complete accident. On the flip side, he’s played almost 600 games in Triple-A and his OPS there is below .800. That’s also not an accident. Which is to say, I’m willing to concede that Jones made some kind of step forward in 2009 and that he’s a better player than I ever expected, but he’s also not going to hit 40 homers in a season either. At least, I don’t think he is.

2) Andrew McCutchen, who Razzball has affectionately nicknamed The Dread Pirate, had a tremendous rookie year.  I’ve sung my praises for what we should expect in 2010.  What do you expect?

First off, I love that nickname and may, erm, pirate it for my own uses. Secondly, I’d expect maybe a little bit of a sophomore slump for ‘Cutch, if only because his .471 slugging percentage in 108 games with the Pirates was higher than his SLG in any full season in the minor leagues. There’s always the chance that 2009 represented a big step forward for McCutchen (his numbers at Triple-A were actually a little better than his numbers in Pittsburgh before his promotion), but if he tapers off to about a .400-.430 SLG with 12-15 homers for the full season, I wouldn’t be surprised. Like with Garrett Jones, it’s one of those things that we’re just going to have to watch and see.

3) Do you have any hope for Andy LaRoche or are the Pirates biding their time for Pedro Alvarez?

Maybe I’m crazy, but I do still have hope for LaRoche. He thumped the ball in May (.330/.411/.457) and September (.313/.359/.552) and while his final line wasn’t all that great, it was a big improvement over his struggles with the Dodgers and Pirates prior to 2009. He’s also got a good glove at third base, and the club seems hopeful that if Alvarez is able to stay at third base for a while, that LaRoche will be able to move to second, where his bat should play much better than it does at a corner.

4) Steve Pearce has 8 homers and a .304 OBP through 342 major league ABs over the course of 3 years.  Will he ever breakout or will Jones play first to make room for Church vs. righties?

The Pirates’ right field/first base situation is a pretty complicated one heading into this season. I think the team’s default position is to let Jones play right and give Jeff Clement the first shot at first base, then adjust based on how Clement performs, how Andy LaRoche is hitting at third base, where Pedro Alvarez is, whether Akinori Iwamura is still in a Pirate uniform by mid-season, and how Jose Tabata develops. Pearce seemingly gets lost in the shuffle there, except he’s the only right-handed player (besides Tabata, who I think probably needs a full season at Triple-A) in the mix. He has a pretty big platoon split in the minors (.991 OPS vs. lefties, .831 vs. righties) and so I think there’s some value in him spelling Jones, Clement, Church, Alvarez, or whoever at one of those position against tough lefties. I think his chances at playing every day are pretty much done, though (remember that he was only really a prospect because he was in the Pirates’ system in the first place, his one great year came because he was sort of bafflingly asked to repeat High-A after a good showing there the year before, and when he hit his way up to a September call-up that season McCutchen and the shell of Neil Walker were the Bucs’ only real prospects at that time, which caused people to get excited about him). And now my longest answer is about Steve Pearce. Great. This is life as a Pirate fan.
5) Back in the 80s, many Pirate players found themselves embroiled in baseball’s cocaine scandal of 1985.  It turned out that the players came upon the Devil’s Dandruff from a connection of their mascot, the Parrot.  Then when the trial came, the Parrot talked, turning state’s evidence and snitching out many Pirate players.  Nothing would ever happen like this now because:  A) The Parrot knows his place.  B) Since the 80s better, undetectable drugs have been designed to replace cocaine, like Red Bull. C) Lastings Milledge can’t stand snitches.

The answer has several components. One is that the Pirates have brought a cartoonish Pirate mascot (the Jolly Roger) into the fold, and he presumably has guns to keep the Parrot in line. The second is that no one on the team makes enough money to support a drug habit at the moment. The third is that it’s not so much that Lastings Milledge hates snitches, as I think he and Andrew McCutchen should film a low-budget cable access buddy-cop show that shows on local TV at 1 AM. I would watch this show.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rockies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Purple Row.

1) I really liked Chris Iannetta’s promise for 2010 going into November, then Olivo happened.  What kind of ABs do you see Iannetta now getting?  What kind of numbers?

Despite little statements here and there in the traditional media about Spring Training determining the amount of playing time for both catchers, it’s hard to see how Olivo will overcome Iannetta. Olivo hits for more power, but he also takes hacks at pitches that hit the ground in front of home plate. Iannetta knows how to get on base, and bringing up his low batting average in 2009 is not the way to start an argument on who should be the Rockies’ starting catcher. With a bit more normal BABIP, Iannetta’s average will rise to the .250-.260 range. A season similar to his 2008 campaign (.264/.390/.505) would cement his place as the Rockies’ starter well into the future.

2) The Rockies are a dream team of upside for fantasy baseball.  Besides Iannetta, there’s Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  The problem with lots of upside is usually managers just want producers in there — Barmes, Spilborghs, Smith, etc.  Will Young get 400 ABs without a 80 pound slab of deer meat falling from the sky onto Barmes?  Will Fowler and CarGo get 500 ABs each?  What kind of numbers do you see for these three in 2010? (Note: This question was asked before the Rockies announced Young would probably start the year in the minors.)

It’ll be hard for EY Jr. to gain that much playing time with Spilborghs and Smith able to backup the outfield corners and Barmes the starting second baseman. He’ll also receive a bit of a test from utility man Ryan Freel in Spring Training. And if the Rockies still have interest in Fernando Tatis, EY Jr. may find himself in the minors.

Fowler and CarGo are the starters in center and left, so 500 ABs for each isn’t out of the question. CarGo seems to be further along at this point with a strong final two months of the season. If you’re looking for stolen bases, Fowler should be a good flier (though he’ll also have a high number of CS), and you may just be surprised with what else he puts up.

3) I’ve got Rocky Mountain high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes for Ian Stewart. Tell me my meds haven’t got me thinking all crazy again.

Your meds haven’t messed with your thinking. . . well, not that much. Stewart’s going to be the starting third baseman without any competition since Garrett Atkins is plying his trade with the Orioles now. It’d be nice to see Stew strike out less and bring up his low line drive percentage (14.1%) in order to use that potential we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2003.

4)  Jorge de la Rosa’s FIP was 3.91 while he rocked a 4.38 ERA, so something was amiss.  Looks like it might be his strand rate, but his free passes sure don’t help.  His Ks are tantalizing for fantasy, but he also looks very risky.  What do you see for him in 2010?

I see a more confident De La Rosa taking the mound with numbers around the same as his 2009 ones. He’s going to be relied on heavily with Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook at the front of the rotation and Jeff Francis returning from a lost 2009 season.

5) Denver is home to hundreds of microbreweries, but what’s your favorite Rockies-themed beer?  A) Franklin Mor-Ales A) Helton’s Jesus Lager C) Stale Hawpes

Franklin Mor-Ales, because we still expect more from him, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation.