Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s no Reyes, Rollins or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or are still looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2010 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Elvis Andrus – He’s slated to start the season in the nine hole.  I’ll bet my two hole he moves up the order by midseason.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Speaking of two holes, Asdrubal ended up on this list of shortstops to target rather than a 2nd baseman because he fits into my ideer of what I want at short more than 2nd.  It’s the more speed, less power thing.

Alcides Escobar – I’ve compared him to Andrus in a past post — one letter off! The nice thing about Alcides is his defense is so good that he should have a longer leash than some other rookies like, oh, I don’t know, Mat Gamel.

Everth Cabrera – Okay, you know that crazy, roid rage British chef that does Dinner: Impossible?  You are him in your draft and your mission is to try to find steals late at the middle infielder position and make Chicken Parm for twenty-five hundred people.  When you’re taking a donut in power from an outfield or utility spot from someone like Juan Pierre, it hurts you.  A donut from MI, you can handle.  Mmm… donut.

Some of these guys will be on waivers if you don’t draft them, so does that mean you shouldn’t draft them?  Actually, I got confused by my own question, but I think that means you should still draft them.  Or maybe it means you should pick them up.  Or maybe wait until someone else picks them up, then mock them relentlessly then when they drop them you pick them up.  Yeah, that feels right.  Either way, here’s some players that no one may own coming out of your (12 team) draft, but you’re likely to look at them at some point in the season.  In larger leagues, these guys will probably be last round steals. Chances are you’ll find yourself sucking your teeth upset I’m telling other people about these guys.  If you want your average run-of-the-mill 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers, they’re, uh, there.  Anyway, here’s some deep fantasy baseball sleepers:

Kris Medlen – He averaged over a K an inning last year.  Will start the year as an MR, barring an injury to someone… *cough* Jar Jar *cough*.  Medlen will get into the rotation shortly.  Meesa tinks Jar Jar won’t make it the whole year healthy.

Jeff Clement – He has catcher eligibility.  If you need to know more, you don’t know sheeeeeeeeeeet, Senator Clay Davis.

Brett Gardner – Brett Gardner went to a parochial high school.  They made everyone sit in alphabetical order.  He sat in the S row for SAGNOF.

Shaun Marcum – Will be returning from TJ surgery so your guess is as good as mine as what you’re going to get.  Think Liriano last year.  Now think about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  Now think about why you’re thinking about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  That’s weird.  Last round flier for Marcum?  Why not?

Brandon Wood – It’s now or never for Wood.  If it is indeed now, it could mean a 25/10 season.

Bud Norris – He probably won’t win more than 10 games and his control isn’t pretty.  His Ks, however, are.

Daniel Bard – 63 Ks in 49 1/3 innings last year.  Even if Bard doesn’t replace Papelbon in 2010 or turns out to be the Earl of Oxford, he’ll still have value.

David Freese – He hits .300 everywhere he goes (in the minors) and he has 20 homer power.  Before you scoff like you’re some Victorian bigwig, those numbers may not be that far off from Butler at a shallower position.

Between the two middle infield positions, I tend to draft a 2nd baseman early and punt shortstop.  This happens for a few reasons.  1) 2nd base has more talent.  That’s right, I draft the deeper position earlier.  Same reason I punt catchers and try to get a 1st baseman early.  If a position is deep, a lot of your leaguemates are going to have one of the top guys.  You don’t want to be one of the 3 or 4 teams without a top guy.  2) There’s less difference between a middle-tiered shortstop and a bottom-tiered one.  3) Shortstops tend to give value with the steal.  You can find cheap steals later.  Most of the 2nd basemen on this list are going after the top 100 in your 2010 fantasy drafts.  This is a supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen of 2010 fantasy baseball. These are 2nd basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2010 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Gordon Beckham – He doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility yet, but he will after the first week and a half.

Ian Stewart – Aw, geez, I’m hyping this guy too much.  I just have a soft spot for a guy with a piddling average who can steal a few bases and hit homers.  Or maybe it’s a hard spot… Hmm…

Rickie Weeks – Everyone’s been burned by Weeks at least once in their fantasy baseball life.  The good thing (or bad thing, if you’re Weeks) is he’s 27 this year.  If he doesn’t make good in 2010, we’ll be able to write him off.

Scott Sizemore – He’s either going to be the most picked up guy in April, or the most dropped.  My money’s on picking him up.

Kelly Johnson – I don’t think I’ve seen Kelly Johnson mock drafted once.  Now, either everyone is keeping Johnson under wraps so not to tip off anyone in mocks or no one wants Kelly Johnson.  The latter is wrong, I tell ya.  W to the rong.

Eric Young Jr. – Yeah, I don’t know what his playing time will be like either, but I’ll say this… Actually, I’ll write it.  There’s at least a 50% chance of Young taking over for Barmes at some point in the season.  Don’t ignore Young in keepers.

Sean Rodriguez – This be me, “He was a utility man coming into 2009 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he left 2010 back in that role.”  I said that about Zobrist, the guy standing in the way of Sean-Rod.  BTW, The Way of Sean-Rod, best Jarmusch movie in a while.

Denard Dawg doesn’t seem to have a bad rap.  He has no rap.  Denard Span gets about as much press as fencing in the high school newspaper sports section.  Span’s in the shadow of everyone, not just his teammate, the 7-foot-1 Loek van Mil (who’s supposedly very TALLented).  Denard couldn’t even get hit on by a waitress at a pool bar.  No one wants the guy that barely gets 10 homers or 20 steals.  Like the reviews said for Mr. Caps debut album, BORING.  It’s true, Span doesn’t have enormous upside.  He’s like the 7 1/2 floor in Being John Malkovich, his ceiling and floor are very close to each other.  That doesn’t have to be a bad thing.  Everyone on your team doesn’t need to be a guy that can hit 30 homers or steal 30 bases.  His numbers last year were 97/8/68/.311/23.  That looks boring, but looks can be deceiving.  Last year, Span ranked 81st overall on Point Shares, sandwiched between Carlos Lee and Michael Bourn.  On ESPN’s Player Rater, he ranked 16th overall for outfielders, between Double I and Shin-Soo Choo.  So what can we expect from Span in 2010 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

For 2010, CHONE has Span at 81/7/57/.294/20; James has him at 94/7/63/.300/25.  I think they’re both too conservative.  I have him projected at 100/10/70/.300/22.  Last year, Span’s HR/FB was 5.9%.  That seems low.  Maybe not by a whole lot, but to get into the low teens in homers, he doesn’t need to do much.  Then you throw in Target Field, the Twins new park.  It’s small.  It’s being compared to Fenway.  No one has any idea how it will play until it starts playing.  For all anyone knows there will be a reverse Jetstream.  But nothing is screaming to me that Span can’t get to 10 homers or past that threshold.  Runs?  They’ll be there.  He had a .392 OBP in 676 plate appearances.  With those on base skills, there’s no one taking over for him at the top of the order, leaving him in front of Hudson, Mauer and Morneau.  His steals are a little wonky.  He had 23 last year, but was caught 10 times.  On the Bill James Speed Score, Span had a 6.5.  Figgins was at 6.7 and Grandy was 6.1.  So Span has the speed to steal more bases.  I’m guessing he doesn’t get the reads or good first steps.  Those things can be adjusted with the right coach and/or dragon slayer.  So I wouldn’t predict a 30 steal season, but I wouldn’t be surprised by one either.  Finally, three outfielders being drafted near Span, according to Mock Draft Central, are Nyjer Morgan, Garrett Jones and Rajai Davis.  Steals, question mark, steals… Span’s not a question mark or just speed.  Over at ESPN, they’re considering Bourn, Nyjer and Kubel around the same time.  Steals, steals and cheap power you can find off waivers.  A leadoff guy with a great OBP and good speed in a solid lineup… Yeah, Span’s boring as crap but he’s also a fantasy sleeper.

Here, friend, are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2010 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to  read more and see their 2010 projections.  This is a supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ramon Hernandez – He’s unexciting³.  But so is losing your league.

Chris Iannetta – He’s exciting, but has Hacky McHackstein breathing down his neck.  For Iannetta’s upside, I’m grabbing him in a few leagues.  Playing time be damned!  The nice thing about going for upside at catcher is no one wants to own more than one (in one catcher leagues), so if you don’t like the catcher you have, there’s plenty more on the waiver wire.

Geovany Soto – Punting doesn’t mean you want to avoid getting value at catcher.

Carlos Ruiz – He just missed the cut for the top 20 catcher post.  It wasn’t easy to leave him off after his bit torrent 2nd half last year.  In less at-bats, he doubled his homers from the first half and added forty points on his batting average.  Unfortunately, his first half was like watching someone suck a boba through a regular-sized straw.  In the 2nd half, he hit 6 homers and batted .276.  So better than the first half, still not incredible.  He has a good lineup for RBIs, so he could be a very minor surprise.  Think 45/14/65/.260/3.

J.R. Towles – Here’s what I said last year in the preseason with added notes in parentheses, “In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009 (or in 2010).  You just need to throw out 2008 (and 2009).  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors (in 2008.  Then ignore his .188 average in 2009, because he had a .233 BABIP).   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.”  And that’s me amending me, quoting me and paraphrasing T.I.!

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This guy is even more frustrating than Towles because I have to spell his stoopid name every time I want to write about him.  Saltymochachino is somehow still only 25 years old though it feels like he’s been hyped forever.  If he pans out, he could give you top ten catcher numbers.  Think 60/17/75/.250, but those are Boras speculative numbers when he’s trying to get Salty a contract.

Mike Napoli – This always drives me flippin’ crazy about ESPN.  They’ll rank someone (Napoli at 219) very low.  They’ll rank him after Doumit, Yadier Molina et al (<– Not the Israeli airline) then say Napoli’s a sleeper.  They’ll say he’s better than Molina, Doumit, etc.  Everyone knows this and ranks Napoli above those guys so he’s not a sleeper.  Once again, ESPN’s in the monkey house too long.

Jeff Clement – Looking for this year’s Inge?  A guy that plays another position while rocking the sweet, sweet eligibility of catcher?  Yeah, I don’t know if there’s one of those guys this year, but Clement’s the closest we have.  His upside is 20 homers and solid RBIs from playing every day.  His downside is not playing every day.  I’d conservatively put his 2010 projections at 55/15/65/.255.