Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80’s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

Elvis Andrus – He’s slated to start the season in the nine hole.  I’ll bet my two hole he moves up the order by midseason.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Speaking of two holes, Asdrubal ended up on this list of shortstops to target rather than a 2nd baseman because he fits into my ideer of what I want at short more than 2nd.  It’s the more speed, less power thing.

Alcides Escobar – I’ve compared him to Andrus in a past post — one letter off! The nice thing about Alcides is his defense is so good that he should have a longer leash than some other rookies like, oh, I don’t know, Mat Gamel.

Everth Cabrera – Okay, you know that crazy, roid rage British chef that does Dinner: Impossible?  You are him in your draft and your mission is to try to find steals late at the middle infielder position and make Chicken Parm for twenty-five hundred people.  When you’re taking a donut in power from an outfield or utility spot from someone like Juan Pierre, it hurts you.  A donut from MI, you can handle.  Mmm… donut.

Kris Medlen – He averaged over a K an inning last year.  Will start the year as an MR, barring an injury to someone… *cough* Jar Jar *cough*.  Medlen will get into the rotation shortly.  Meesa tinks Jar Jar won’t make it the whole year healthy.

Jeff Clement – He has catcher eligibility.  If you need to know more, you don’t know sheeeeeeeeeeet, Senator Clay Davis.

Brett Gardner – Brett Gardner went to a parochial high school.  They made everyone sit in alphabetical order.  He sat in the S row for SAGNOF.

Shaun Marcum – Will be returning from TJ surgery so your guess is as good as mine as what you’re going to get.  Think Liriano last year.  Now think about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  Now think about why you’re thinking about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  That’s weird.  Last round flier for Marcum?  Why not?

Brandon Wood – It’s now or never for Wood.  If it is indeed now, it could mean a 25/10 season.

Bud Norris – He probably won’t win more than 10 games and his control isn’t pretty.  His Ks, however, are.

Daniel Bard – 63 Ks in 49 1/3 innings last year.  Even if Bard doesn’t replace Papelbon in 2010 or turns out to be the Earl of Oxford, he’ll still have value.

David Freese – He hits .300 everywhere he goes (in the minors) and he has 20 homer power.  Before you scoff like you’re some Victorian bigwig, those numbers may not be that far off from Butler at a shallower position.

Gordon Beckham – He doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility yet, but he will after the first week and a half.

Ian Stewart – Aw, geez, I’m hyping this guy too much.  I just have a soft spot for a guy with a piddling average who can steal a few bases and hit homers.  Or maybe it’s a hard spot… Hmm…

Rickie Weeks – Everyone’s been burned by Weeks at least once in their fantasy baseball life.  The good thing (or bad thing, if you’re Weeks) is he’s 27 this year.  If he doesn’t make good in 2010, we’ll be able to write him off.

Scott Sizemore – He’s either going to be the most picked up guy in April, or the most dropped.  My money’s on picking him up.

Kelly Johnson – I don’t think I’ve seen Kelly Johnson mock drafted once.  Now, either everyone is keeping Johnson under wraps so not to tip off anyone in mocks or no one wants Kelly Johnson.  The latter is wrong, I tell ya.  W to the rong.

Eric Young Jr. – Yeah, I don’t know what his playing time will be like either, but I’ll say this… Actually, I’ll write it.  There’s at least a 50% chance of Young taking over for Barmes at some point in the season.  Don’t ignore Young in keepers.

Sean Rodriguez – This be me, “He was a utility man coming into 2009 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he left 2010 back in that role.”  I said that about Zobrist, the guy standing in the way of Sean-Rod.  BTW, The Way of Sean-Rod, best Jarmusch movie in a while.

For 2010, CHONE has Span at 81/7/57/.294/20; James has him at 94/7/63/.300/25.  I think they’re both too conservative.  I have him projected at 100/10/70/.300/22.  Last year, Span’s HR/FB was 5.9%.  That seems low.  Maybe not by a whole lot, but to get into the low teens in homers, he doesn’t need to do much.  Then you throw in Target Field, the Twins new park.  It’s small.  It’s being compared to Fenway.  No one has any idea how it will play until it starts playing.  For all anyone knows there will be a reverse Jetstream.  But nothing is screaming to me that Span can’t get to 10 homers or past that threshold.  Runs?  They’ll be there.  He had a .392 OBP in 676 plate appearances.  With those on base skills, there’s no one taking over for him at the top of the order, leaving him in front of Hudson, Mauer and Morneau.  His steals are a little wonky.  He had 23 last year, but was caught 10 times.  On the Bill James Speed Score, Span had a 6.5.  Figgins was at 6.7 and Grandy was 6.1.  So Span has the speed to steal more bases.  I’m guessing he doesn’t get the reads or good first steps.  Those things can be adjusted with the right coach and/or dragon slayer.  So I wouldn’t predict a 30 steal season, but I wouldn’t be surprised by one either.  Finally, three outfielders being drafted near Span, according to Mock Draft Central, are Nyjer Morgan, Garrett Jones and Rajai Davis.  Steals, question mark, steals… Span’s not a question mark or just speed.  Over at ESPN, they’re considering Bourn, Nyjer and Kubel around the same time.  Steals, steals and cheap power you can find off waivers.  A leadoff guy with a great OBP and good speed in a solid lineup… Yeah, Span’s boring as crap but he’s also a fantasy sleeper.

Ramon Hernandez – He’s unexciting³.  But so is losing your league.

Chris Iannetta – He’s exciting, but has Hacky McHackstein breathing down his neck.  For Iannetta’s upside, I’m grabbing him in a few leagues.  Playing time be damned!  The nice thing about going for upside at catcher is no one wants to own more than one (in one catcher leagues), so if you don’t like the catcher you have, there’s plenty more on the waiver wire.

Geovany Soto – Punting doesn’t mean you want to avoid getting value at catcher.

Carlos Ruiz – He just missed the cut for the top 20 catcher post.  It wasn’t easy to leave him off after his bit torrent 2nd half last year.  In less at-bats, he doubled his homers from the first half and added forty points on his batting average.  Unfortunately, his first half was like watching someone suck a boba through a regular-sized straw.  In the 2nd half, he hit 6 homers and batted .276.  So better than the first half, still not incredible.  He has a good lineup for RBIs, so he could be a very minor surprise.  Think 45/14/65/.260/3.

J.R. Towles – Here’s what I said last year in the preseason with added notes in parentheses, “In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009 (or in 2010).  You just need to throw out 2008 (and 2009).  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors (in 2008.  Then ignore his .188 average in 2009, because he had a .233 BABIP).   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.”  And that’s me amending me, quoting me and paraphrasing T.I.!

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This guy is even more frustrating than Towles because I have to spell his stoopid name every time I want to write about him.  Saltymochachino is somehow still only 25 years old though it feels like he’s been hyped forever.  If he pans out, he could give you top ten catcher numbers.  Think 60/17/75/.250, but those are Boras speculative numbers when he’s trying to get Salty a contract.

Mike Napoli – This always drives me flippin’ crazy about ESPN.  They’ll rank someone (Napoli at 219) very low.  They’ll rank him after Doumit, Yadier Molina et al (<– Not the Israeli airline) then say Napoli’s a sleeper.  They’ll say he’s better than Molina, Doumit, etc.  Everyone knows this and ranks Napoli above those guys so he’s not a sleeper.  Once again, ESPN’s in the monkey house too long.

Jeff Clement – Looking for this year’s Inge?  A guy that plays another position while rocking the sweet, sweet eligibility of catcher?  Yeah, I don’t know if there’s one of those guys this year, but Clement’s the closest we have.  His upside is 20 homers and solid RBIs from playing every day.  His downside is not playing every day.  I’d conservatively put his 2010 projections at 55/15/65/.255.

Yeah, Pony Boy, he is.  24/17 seems to be on the high side for what I’d expect of CarGo.  The other day someone asked Carlos Gonzalez vs. Andrew McCutchen? This is a great question.  It’s nearly tomato-tomahto. One has 20/20 upside, one has 15/35 upside.  I’d side with McCutchen because speed doesn’t evaporate, while power can be tricky for a youngster. (Fiddlesticks, I’m an oldster. I use words like youngster.) Look at Rios’s power for an example of where power can go.  Gonzalez still swings at a few too many balls outside the strike zone, so his average of .284 may be the upper reaches over a full season.  .270 seems more likely.  To continue this hybrid comparison of Rios, McCutchen and CarGo or Alex McCarGo (who’s a lot better than Aaron McCargo), I’d take them in that order, but they’re all really close and it doesn’t mean I don’t like Gonzalez.  Rios is only first because he’s a bit more known.  CarGo and McCutchen blow him away if you want upside.  Carlos Gonzalez is definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Just keep expectations in check.