Alcides Escobar – Forty steals from Alcides wouldn’t be surprising.  He’s especially nice if Web Gems is a category in your league.

Colby Rasmus – In front of Pujols and Holliday might hinder Rasmus’ running game, but he should still be good for 15-20 homers and 10 to 15 steals.

Ian Stewart – Who is this Ian Stewart you talk of?  I have never heard of him.  Okay, no fooling, but the other night I had a dream that Ian Stewart had a complete collapse and was benched for Mora.  Granted, the girl from Seymore Butts and Thomas Jefferson were also in the dream and I was smoking opium… Nevertheless!  Stewart’s really not far away from sleeper sell material if you need to draft him in the top 100.  12th round or higher?  Much better.  (Side note, I was at a sushi restaurant the other day — Grey loves sushi as much as he loves referring to himself in third person.  Was sitting at the sushi bar when a smoking hot girl sits down next me.  It was the girl from Seymore Butts.  I didn’t recognize her.  You can giggle and say I’m lying.  You’d be surprised how unrecognizable a porn star is in clothes.  It’s like putting glasses on Clark Kent.  So we start talking and she reveals who she is and asks me if I’d like a few free DVDs.  She has them in her car, which is parked in the back.  I agree; you would’ve too.  Don’t judge.  She gives me 5 DVDs.  For those who aren’t hip to porn DVDs.  Their covers are graphic.  As we said goodbye, I realized I was parked in the front of the restaurant at a meter.  Yes, I had to walk back through the restaurant to get to my car.  I could’ve stuck the DVDs under my shirt, but I manned up, and walked very quickly.  Still, everyone saw what I was carrying.  The sushi chefs’ smiles were priceless.  A group of women dining there looked at me like I was everything wrong with men.  Finally, I get outside.  Only to find a female meter maid giving me a ticket.  I put the DVDs behind my back and rush up to her.  Please, I tell her, I’m leaving right now.  It’s already started.  Buh-buh-but!  Just then, a group of teenagers approach from behind me and start screaming, “Check out his videos!  He’s a pervert!”  Yeah, I took the parking ticket.)

Brandon Wood – The time appears now, unless Scioscia thinks the time is not now and he goes with The Figgy Duets (Maicer and Aybar).  If Wood penetrates the lineup (sticking with today’s post theme), he could be Ian Stewart 10 rounds later.

Jay Bruce – If Bruce does what he’s capable of, he will be overrated in 2011.

Dexter Fowler – Sorry, even sometimes I admire my own work and the post title under Fowler’s name is classic.  And I don’t even get Showtime!  Fowler is in the unenviable position of a crowded outfield.  If he stumbles out of the gate, I could see his time being reduced.

Carlos Gonzalez – I’ve been meaning to write an entire post on this, but Spring Training’s falling through the hourglass, so this post will have to do.  CarGo has to deal with a crowded outfield too.  Somehow CarGo’s risen way up draft sheets while Fowler’s stayed pretty reasonable.  A 10/30 season from Fowler seems as likely as a 20/20 season from CarGo.  No reason CarGo should be priced that much higher.  I have CarGo about 20 places higher in my rankings.  Yet, I hear people returning from a draft where Fowler isn’t drafted at all and CarGo is going in the first 100 picks.  Huh?

Chris Davis – I’m a sucker for low average, high power, some speed guys.  It’s the new three outcome player.

Julio Borbon – Yeah, the Rockies and the Rangers have some upside candidates.

Nolan Reimold – Heal, Achilles’ heel.  Please.

Garrett Jones – Everyone seems to think Garrett Jones can’t build on his 2009.  And I’m kinda in that group.  But still, the Pirates will play him and he’s not exactly being drafted that high.

David Price – I gotta be honest, I’ve seen Price in drafts and I’ve had a hard time pulling the trigger.  I just picture myself curled up in a ball crying while watching him pitch against the Yankees or Red Sox.

Jonathan Sanchez – I’ve had no problem drafting this doode.

Carlos Quentin – If he can stay healthy, he’ll be overrated next year.  *fingers crossed*

Denard Span -  Yeah, he’s pretty yawnstipating, but there’s a place for that on some teams. (Damn, that was the worst sales pitch since David Price’s blurb.)

Geovany Soto – When he showed up camp forty pounds lighter, Soto said, “I used to be a little sluggish — like ‘I want to take a nap.’  Now I feel great and I just want to put myself in the best position to help the club.”  Sounds like a line from an afterschool special about how marijuana is a gateway drug.

Elvis Andrus – I’ve almost convinced myself that Andrus is going to be as valuable this year as Jose Reyes circa 2008.  Almost.  Like in a game of horseshoes.  A game of horseshoes!

Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80′s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

Elvis Andrus – He’s slated to start the season in the nine hole.  I’ll bet my two hole he moves up the order by midseason.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Speaking of two holes, Asdrubal ended up on this list of shortstops to target rather than a 2nd baseman because he fits into my ideer of what I want at short more than 2nd.  It’s the more speed, less power thing.

Alcides Escobar – I’ve compared him to Andrus in a past post — one letter off! The nice thing about Alcides is his defense is so good that he should have a longer leash than some other rookies like, oh, I don’t know, Mat Gamel.

Everth Cabrera – Okay, you know that crazy, roid rage British chef that does Dinner: Impossible?  You are him in your draft and your mission is to try to find steals late at the middle infielder position and make Chicken Parm for twenty-five hundred people.  When you’re taking a donut in power from an outfield or utility spot from someone like Juan Pierre, it hurts you.  A donut from MI, you can handle.  Mmm… donut.

Kris Medlen – He averaged over a K an inning last year.  Will start the year as an MR, barring an injury to someone… *cough* Jar Jar *cough*.  Medlen will get into the rotation shortly.  Meesa tinks Jar Jar won’t make it the whole year healthy.

Jeff Clement – He has catcher eligibility.  If you need to know more, you don’t know sheeeeeeeeeeet, Senator Clay Davis.

Brett Gardner – Brett Gardner went to a parochial high school.  They made everyone sit in alphabetical order.  He sat in the S row for SAGNOF.

Shaun Marcum – Will be returning from TJ surgery so your guess is as good as mine as what you’re going to get.  Think Liriano last year.  Now think about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  Now think about why you’re thinking about a lamb wearing sunglasses.  That’s weird.  Last round flier for Marcum?  Why not?

Brandon Wood – It’s now or never for Wood.  If it is indeed now, it could mean a 25/10 season.

Bud Norris – He probably won’t win more than 10 games and his control isn’t pretty.  His Ks, however, are.

Daniel Bard – 63 Ks in 49 1/3 innings last year.  Even if Bard doesn’t replace Papelbon in 2010 or turns out to be the Earl of Oxford, he’ll still have value.

David Freese – He hits .300 everywhere he goes (in the minors) and he has 20 homer power.  Before you scoff like you’re some Victorian bigwig, those numbers may not be that far off from Butler at a shallower position.

Gordon Beckham – He doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility yet, but he will after the first week and a half.

Ian Stewart – Aw, geez, I’m hyping this guy too much.  I just have a soft spot for a guy with a piddling average who can steal a few bases and hit homers.  Or maybe it’s a hard spot… Hmm…

Rickie Weeks – Everyone’s been burned by Weeks at least once in their fantasy baseball life.  The good thing (or bad thing, if you’re Weeks) is he’s 27 this year.  If he doesn’t make good in 2010, we’ll be able to write him off.

Scott Sizemore – He’s either going to be the most picked up guy in April, or the most dropped.  My money’s on picking him up.

Kelly Johnson – I don’t think I’ve seen Kelly Johnson mock drafted once.  Now, either everyone is keeping Johnson under wraps so not to tip off anyone in mocks or no one wants Kelly Johnson.  The latter is wrong, I tell ya.  W to the rong.

Eric Young Jr. – Yeah, I don’t know what his playing time will be like either, but I’ll say this… Actually, I’ll write it.  There’s at least a 50% chance of Young taking over for Barmes at some point in the season.  Don’t ignore Young in keepers.

Sean Rodriguez – This be me, “He was a utility man coming into 2009 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he left 2010 back in that role.”  I said that about Zobrist, the guy standing in the way of Sean-Rod.  BTW, The Way of Sean-Rod, best Jarmusch movie in a while.

For 2010, CHONE has Span at 81/7/57/.294/20; James has him at 94/7/63/.300/25.  I think they’re both too conservative.  I have him projected at 100/10/70/.300/22.  Last year, Span’s HR/FB was 5.9%.  That seems low.  Maybe not by a whole lot, but to get into the low teens in homers, he doesn’t need to do much.  Then you throw in Target Field, the Twins new park.  It’s small.  It’s being compared to Fenway.  No one has any idea how it will play until it starts playing.  For all anyone knows there will be a reverse Jetstream.  But nothing is screaming to me that Span can’t get to 10 homers or past that threshold.  Runs?  They’ll be there.  He had a .392 OBP in 676 plate appearances.  With those on base skills, there’s no one taking over for him at the top of the order, leaving him in front of Hudson, Mauer and Morneau.  His steals are a little wonky.  He had 23 last year, but was caught 10 times.  On the Bill James Speed Score, Span had a 6.5.  Figgins was at 6.7 and Grandy was 6.1.  So Span has the speed to steal more bases.  I’m guessing he doesn’t get the reads or good first steps.  Those things can be adjusted with the right coach and/or dragon slayer.  So I wouldn’t predict a 30 steal season, but I wouldn’t be surprised by one either.  Finally, three outfielders being drafted near Span, according to Mock Draft Central, are Nyjer Morgan, Garrett Jones and Rajai Davis.  Steals, question mark, steals… Span’s not a question mark or just speed.  Over at ESPN, they’re considering Bourn, Nyjer and Kubel around the same time.  Steals, steals and cheap power you can find off waivers.  A leadoff guy with a great OBP and good speed in a solid lineup… Yeah, Span’s boring as crap but he’s also a fantasy sleeper.

Ramon Hernandez – He’s unexciting³.  But so is losing your league.

Chris Iannetta – He’s exciting, but has Hacky McHackstein breathing down his neck.  For Iannetta’s upside, I’m grabbing him in a few leagues.  Playing time be damned!  The nice thing about going for upside at catcher is no one wants to own more than one (in one catcher leagues), so if you don’t like the catcher you have, there’s plenty more on the waiver wire.

Geovany Soto – Punting doesn’t mean you want to avoid getting value at catcher.

Carlos Ruiz – He just missed the cut for the top 20 catcher post.  It wasn’t easy to leave him off after his bit torrent 2nd half last year.  In less at-bats, he doubled his homers from the first half and added forty points on his batting average.  Unfortunately, his first half was like watching someone suck a boba through a regular-sized straw.  In the 2nd half, he hit 6 homers and batted .276.  So better than the first half, still not incredible.  He has a good lineup for RBIs, so he could be a very minor surprise.  Think 45/14/65/.260/3.

J.R. Towles – Here’s what I said last year in the preseason with added notes in parentheses, “In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009 (or in 2010).  You just need to throw out 2008 (and 2009).  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors (in 2008.  Then ignore his .188 average in 2009, because he had a .233 BABIP).   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.”  And that’s me amending me, quoting me and paraphrasing T.I.!

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – This guy is even more frustrating than Towles because I have to spell his stoopid name every time I want to write about him.  Saltymochachino is somehow still only 25 years old though it feels like he’s been hyped forever.  If he pans out, he could give you top ten catcher numbers.  Think 60/17/75/.250, but those are Boras speculative numbers when he’s trying to get Salty a contract.

Mike Napoli – This always drives me flippin’ crazy about ESPN.  They’ll rank someone (Napoli at 219) very low.  They’ll rank him after Doumit, Yadier Molina et al (<– Not the Israeli airline) then say Napoli’s a sleeper.  They’ll say he’s better than Molina, Doumit, etc.  Everyone knows this and ranks Napoli above those guys so he’s not a sleeper.  Once again, ESPN’s in the monkey house too long.

Jeff Clement – Looking for this year’s Inge?  A guy that plays another position while rocking the sweet, sweet eligibility of catcher?  Yeah, I don’t know if there’s one of those guys this year, but Clement’s the closest we have.  His upside is 20 homers and solid RBIs from playing every day.  His downside is not playing every day.  I’d conservatively put his 2010 projections at 55/15/65/.255.

Yeah, Pony Boy, he is.  24/17 seems to be on the high side for what I’d expect of CarGo.  The other day someone asked Carlos Gonzalez vs. Andrew McCutchen? This is a great question.  It’s nearly tomato-tomahto. One has 20/20 upside, one has 15/35 upside.  I’d side with McCutchen because speed doesn’t evaporate, while power can be tricky for a youngster. (Fiddlesticks, I’m an oldster. I use words like youngster.) Look at Rios’s power for an example of where power can go.  Gonzalez still swings at a few too many balls outside the strike zone, so his average of .284 may be the upper reaches over a full season.  .270 seems more likely.  To continue this hybrid comparison of Rios, McCutchen and CarGo or Alex McCarGo (who’s a lot better than Aaron McCargo), I’d take them in that order, but they’re all really close and it doesn’t mean I don’t like Gonzalez.  Rios is only first because he’s a bit more known.  CarGo and McCutchen blow him away if you want upside.  Carlos Gonzalez is definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Just keep expectations in check.

Billy Butler is a line drive machine.  When he’s not hitting line drives, he’s hitting ground balls.  He’s much closer to Robinson Cano or, to get historical on ya, Edgar Martinez.  Edgar Martinez only hit above 30 homers once in his career, Cano has yet to reach it.  Maybe it’s the portly body that has people seeing Butler as a surefire power breakout, but I don’t agree.  If you don’t believe me because of trust issues, CHONE and Bill James both project Butler to hit 17 homers.  Then there’s the Royals.  How many Runs do you think Butler’s getting in that lineup?  80?  85?  Yeah, maybe.  Then there’s the RBIs.  See lack of Runs.  Looking at maybe 100.  So 85/25/100/.300.  That’s not terrible, but those numbers are leaning down rather up.  What I mean is, he’s between 75-85/20-25/85-100/.300.  So if he ends up at 75/22/85/.300, that’s a corner man, not a 1st baseman.  If he had steals to make up for his shortcomings, it would be different.  But Billy Butler couldn’t steal a base if they were only 15 feet apart and he grew 13 more feet.  You know who does have some speed?

Robot Jones.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, Jones had a 4.4 last year.  Butler was at 2.0. (You ever think if Butler had any speed he might have had 7 or so triples instead of some of those doubles?)  Last year in 358 plate appearances, Jones stole 10 bases.  In 672 PAs, Butler stole 1 and I’m assuming it was a hit and run and no one covered 2nd.  Jones’s fly ball rate was 41.3% last year; Butler was 34.6%.  Jones can hit 30 homers a lot easier than Butler.  I’m calling Butler and Jones a push on Runs and RBIs.  So that leaves average.  As we all know, average is fickle, but Butler will easily beat Jones.  At least .300 to .270.  However, Butler is being drafted around 70 spots before Jones.  Yes, Garrett Jones is much riskier.  If Butler were at 120 and Jones 140, I’d take Butler every time.  There’s a chance with Jones that he flames out and looks like Ludwick circa 2009.  But the difference of 70 spots in ADP has me in Jones’s corner.  He’s much better value.  Oh, and Billy Butler hits about .450 every Spring Training, which led him to be dubbed Mr. Grapefruit, so his ADP isn’t going down any time soon.

Last year, Liriano was not only coming back from Tommy John surgery but he was also battling health setbacks every step of the way.  His walks went up from a pre-op 2.38 BB/9 to 4.28 last year, but pitchers have known to have initial control problems when returning from TJ surgery. (That’s not Tijuana surgery, which was beautifully captured in that Felicity Huffman movie that always manages to come on TV right when you, your father and grandfather sit down with a few beers.  Grey, see what else is on. All right, Pop… Here’s The World According to Garp… Hey, it’s the guy from Third Rock. *awkward two hour silence*  That was good, but don’t tell your Mom we watched it.)  Pre-op his fastball regularly sat around 94 MPH.  Last year, Liriano was hitting 91, which was up from the 90 MPH he threw in 2008 when he first returned.  Now in the Dominican he’s being clocked at 92-94.  That’s a good trend.  In Liriano’s final two starts of the year in the DR, he threw 10 scoreless with only two walks and 10 Ks.  Finally, his sleeperosity is as much about Liriano as it’s about the schmohawks Kevin Jepsen, Barry Zito, Joe Saunders… Otherwise known as guys being drafted around the same time as Liriano.  (BTW, I just wasted 15 minutes of my life that I’ll never get back trying to figure out why people are drafting Jepsen.  Rodney will step in if Fuentes proves incapable.)  As I write this… and this… and this… and this… and (well, you get the point), Liriano isn’t even guaranteed a starting spot, but I think he gets the starting spot and posts a low 4 ERA with good Ks, making him a solid 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Think 2010 projections of 12-9/4.05/1.34/155.

On June 22nd of last year, Sanchez moved to the bullpen because his last three of four starts were shellackings.  As in, he got shelled while lacking command.  Whether Righetti twirled Sanchez on his fork with or without a spoon, it’s unbeknownst to me, but Sanchez posted a 3.48 ERA after that brief trip to the bullpen.  But, more importantly, his strikeouts held strong and his walks were down.  In the season as a whole, Sanchez had a 9.75 K/9.  For those iffy on math, that means if he gets 200 innings, he’s getting more than 200 strikeouts.  A 200 strikeout pitcher who is being drafted in the final rounds of a 12 team mixed league draft?  That sounds mighty nice.  Is he going to kill you on WHIP?  Probably a bit, but as mentioned like five sentences ago, he started to control his wildness.  To mix metaphors, let’s put a bow on this sundae and put it in the oven.  He pitches his home games in a pitcher’s park and he’s only 27 years old.  All told, Jonathan Sanchez is a 2010 fantasy sleeper.

Depends what your definition of a sleeper is, really.  Some will say, Quentin’s getting drafted everywhere, so how is he a sleeper?  That is kinda true, but my definition needs to be malleable for people in 10 team leagues.  I bought Quentin for $5 in a ‘pert mock auction draft recently and I’ve seen him being drafted around 100th in snakes.  For that value, he’s a sleeper.  I.e., he should return more value compared to where he’s being drafted.  In 2009, Quentin hit 21 homers in only 351 ABs and his HR/FB was a bit low for him.  Is he a slam dunk for 30 homers?  If he’s healthy, he is.  I’d say 35 homers is a reach, but doable.  Also, last year Quentin was profoundly unlucky to have a .236 average.  He’s not a batting title winner in the making, but he is a .275 hitter.  He has some sneaky speed too.  Though his plantar fasciitis may limit that.  But stealing a base a month wouldn’t be a tall order.  So 80/28/95/.275/5 with a chance for more.   That’s nothing to sneeze at unless you’re allergic to productive fantasy outfielders.

Thanks for the lead-in, Intro Paragraph, you sure live up to your name while asking the tough questions.  For the answer and in an effort to appeal to a younger demographic, let’s blow some dust off this yellow-stained draft sheet and remove my monocle.  According to Mock Draft Central, Reimold is being drafted about 140 spots after Hunter Pence.  I do like Pence, but he’s that different from Reimold?  Rhetorical!  Reimold’s walk rate blows Pence’s out of the water at 11.6%.  A .370 OBP doesn’t seem to be that far of a reach for Reimold in twenty-ten.  I’m chirping about walks because a young player that can get on base with the free pass is a safer bet.  For instance, let’s look at his worst month last year, August.  Reimold hit .228 with only 2 homers.  But it was also his highest month for the free pass at 15 and turned into his highest month for Runs with 13.  As the old adage that was ignored for a 100 years of baseball goes, if a guy gets on base, something is bound to happen.  Aside from walks, Reimold has slight speed and the aforementioned power.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he grows into a Berkman-type in the next two years.  22 homers with 5 steals is the floor and definitely someone I’m targeting in all my drafts.  For our Latino readers, id est, Reimold’s a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Andrus isn’t a straight steals guy.  He may not get to 10 homers in 2010, but he will some day.  Am I being optimistic because he plays in Texas?  Yes, but that is where he plays.  A line of 10/50 from Andrus wouldn’t floor me.  Um, at shortstop.  That’s 2nd round numbers.  He doesn’t strikeout at insane rates or really take many walks.  That’s okay; he Ike Turners balls into the ground.  For a speedster, we couldn’t ask for much more.  Last year’s BABIP of .307 was probably a bit low for him.  With his speed, I could see him having a .320+ BABIP.  Essentially, that could mean a better batting average than his last year’s .267.  Not by a huge margin, but by a bit.  Conservatively, I’d put him down for 75/8/50/.270/37.  Optimistically, 85/10/60/.280/50.  Finally, if you see me rank Andrus at, say 145 and someone else put him at 195 — listen to me! — joking.  The numbers don’t matter.  You need to draft your own team.  Don’t hesitate to take Andrus at 135 if you really need steals from your shortstop.  It’s better you get the guy you need before your opponent does.  As Vin Diesel said in The Pacifier, “Rule number one: never be too eager to rush your opponent.”

Ellsbury, who’s being drafted around the 3rd round, is a 10 homer, 50 steal threat.  (Yes, he stole 70 bases last year, but we shouldn’t count on 70 bases from anyone.)  Borbon hit 4 homers in 46 games last year.  His minor league ground ball and fly ball rates were on par with his short time in the majors.  So he can get 8-10 homers next year.  As far as I’m concerned, that’s not exactly a termite-infested limb considering his home park.  If he hits 12 homers, I wouldn’t be shocked.  (At 15 homers, I’d consider notifying Snooki that Borbon might be a juice head.  Or sipping from the Ron Ron Juice.)  So a guy who can go 10/40 and is being drafted in the final rounds versus a 10/50 guy who’s going in the 3rd round?  Done, I’m getting drunk on Borbon.

READ THE TITLE!  Whoa, Mr. Caps Lock.  Chillax.  This may only be interesting in a dorky-baseball-stats-are-so-cool-type way, but for batters with 390 at-bats or more, Chris Davis had the 2nd lowest contact rate with 63.2% — for the guy reading over your shoulder who doesn’t know as much as you, that means he swung and missed a crapton.  (A crapton is more than a shizzload, but less than shizzton.)  You know who led the league?  Of course you do.  Mark Reynolds.  Carlos Pena came in third.  So we can see that a hitter can be productive and swing and miss and miss and miss and you get it.  Chris Davis actually showed a better eye in 2009 than in 2008, lowering the amount of pitches he swung at outside the strike zone. I feel your eyes glazing over so I’m going to drop the percentage-thisses and percentage-thats, focusing on the more concrete.  Doode can hit homers.  With a full season, he should reach 30 homers with ease.  The average probably won’t sniff .275, but he can put together a .260 season.  Carlos Pena will probably be drafted about 50 spots before Davis but they’re really not that different and, in fact, Davis is younger and can have a more valuable season.  Am I saying draft Chris Davis in the first ten rounds?  No, but he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Snider has 1313 at-bats in the minors with a slash line of .304/.382/.533.  I know what you’re thinking.  If Dan Brown books are terrible, why do I keep reading them? Hmm, I thought you were thinking something else.  I figured you were surprised by the number of at-bats Snider’s had in the minor leagues.  It is a lot of at-bats.  A career minor leaguer?  Grey’s hitting the Schnapps! Nope, Snider doesn’t turn 22 years old until February 2nd.  February Grey is actually sending him an eCard right now.  A 22-year-old with that much experience in the minors and that nice of a line is someone to keep an eye on.  The Blue Jays have no reason not to give him every opportunity to succeed again in 2010.  But that doesn’t mean all ball clubs use reason.  They may opt to platoon Snider.  Luckily, he’d get the righties.  If he hits them, he’ll get the lefties.  It’s a gamble, but it’s a good gamble to take.  I’d cautiously project a line of 75/24/85/.265.  He can do what Adam Lind did in 2009.  Probably not, but he’s still far more exciting than the usual fifth wheel schmohawk.

From 2008 to 2009, everything that was in Soto’s control went in the right direction.  His walk rate went up, his strikeout rate went down, the amount of pitches he swung at outside the strike zone went down.  When he did swing the bat, he hit more pitches inside and outside the strike zone then he did the previous year.  Even the amount of homers he hit compared to how many fly balls showed he was unlucky.  With a year removed from the injuries, I see no reason why Soto can’t come close to equaling his Rookie of the Year, um, year.  Think 20 homers and a .275 average.  Oh, and this is as much about Geovany Soto for 2010 fantasy baseball as about the schmohawks around him on draft boards.  Jorge Posada?  He turned 57 years old last year.  Russell Martin?  He’s Crapolanco at catcher.  Whatevs.  Kurt Suzuki is Russell Martin for the fantasy baseballer who overthinks things.  Explanation:  Some people think Russell Martin is good, then there’s some people who think Martin’s good but overrated.  Then there’s a select few who think Martin’s good, overrated and Suzuki can do the same for cheaper.  These people are like Alexander Bogdanov.  The Russian scientist who thought he could achieve eternal youth with blood transfusions then died of a blood transfusion.  As long as Soto stays low on draft boards, he’s definitely someone to look at later in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.

Let’s look at his month to month slugging progression.  In April through September, Rasmus slugged .305, .447, .536, .397, .400, .373, respectively.  If you throw out April, he averaged just over 3 homers per month.  He’s capable of 4 easily in 2010.  That would give him 24 homers.  Thank you, come again.  And for all you haters out there, if haters is indeed the right word, he hit 29 homers in Double-A at the age of 20 and he hit 11 homers in 90 games at Triple-A.  So there’s power there.  His steals were Steve Balbonian in 2009.  That has to change.  I mean, has to.  He stole 15 of 18 in Triple-A in 2008 and 18 of 21 in Double-A.  Look at the big brain on Brad.  Yes, he hit 29 homers and stole 18 bases in 128 games of Double-A.  3 steals last year is ludicrous.  Absurd.  And other similar words found in the thesaurus.  He’s capable of 20 steals.  Does he approach that?  Something you don’t hear often from ‘perts, but I don’t know.  He can, that’s what matters.  Sleepers are as much about what they can do as where you can get them.  Right now, Colby Rasmus is being drafted around such perennial schmohawks as Vernon Wells, Juan Rivera and Jack Cust.  His 20/15 potential and his company being kept on draft boards makes Colby Rasmus a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Victor Martinez – You want him at catcher, but the added eligibility is nice if you lose a 1st baseman to an injury and need to slot in V-Mart.  Krishna knows it’s easier to find a random schmohawk catcher off waivers than a 1st baseman.

Jorge Cantu – Without the 3rd base eligibility, he wouldn’t even be drafted in most leagues.  With the eligibility, you still want to avoid him.  For those keeping score, that’s damned if you do, and damned if you do.

Chris Davis – When you’re looking to draft a player that is capable of striking out 300 times, you probably want them at a corner infidel spot, so the additional 3rd base eligibility doesn’t add much.  If you don’t play with corner infielders, you want Davis at 3rd, but with only 11 games there you may be S.O.L. in some leagues. (Damn you, ESPN.)

Ryan Garko – From the files of “Yeah, No Kidding,” he’s a whole lot more appealing as a 5th outfielder than a 1st baseman.  And even in the outfield, it’s really only in deep leagues.

Bobby Crosby – Psyche!  He has no added value anywhere, but seeing him on the position eligibility list made me realize something.  He played 54 games at 1st base and 42 at 3rd base.  Billy Beane might be like the Orson Wells of baseball GMs.  The Moneyball years is to Citizen Kane as Bobby Crosby playing 1st and 3rd base is to Orson Welles shilling for cheap wine.

Clint Barmes – 2nd base eligibility is nice, but, as the Yankee Doodles used to say, shortstop eligibility is macaroni.

Alberto Callaspo – With MI and CI eligibility, he has the coveted superfecta of eligibility.  Though, I wouldn’t say Callaspo is necessarily coveted.  Funny how that worked.

Jose Lopez – You want him at 2nd base or MI.

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist’s risk of not repeating is definitely counterbalanced by the nice eligibility.  He played 91 games at 2nd base, 70 games at outfield and 13 games at shortstop.  Hmm… No wonder he hit 27 homers and stole 17 bases, he played in 174 games.

Emilio Bonifacio – I wouldn’t own him outside of NL-Only leagues, but he does have the Pick 3 of eligibility.

Mark DeRosa – Slot him in at the corner infielder spot, grow bored and put him in your fifth outfielder spot.  Lose interest and drop him.  You know what I’m saying, you’ve been there before.

Casey McGehee – You know you’re more likely to take a chance on him at 2nd base or MI than 3rd base.  Yes, I know you better than you know yourself.

Mark Reynolds – You think you’ll be fine with him as your 1st baseman, but, by the end of 2010, you’re going to want him as your 3rd baseman.

Jhonny Peralta – He gained 3rd base eligibility this year to go along with shortstop…. yay!  He hit 11 homers in 582 at-bats.  Moving on…

Ian Stewart – I’m excited about Ian Stewart for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Looks like Mark Reynolds going into 2009.  Oh, and he’s eligible at 2nd base.

Juan Uribe – Won’t find him on a Grey Albright team out of a draft, but in single league, uh, leagues he has solid eligibility.

Michael Cuddyer – Corner infield and outfield eligibility is nice, but I’ll bet you $5 he’s the first guy you want to drop.

Adam Dunn – Probably will end up in your outfield, but the flexibility of putting Dunn in at corner is nice.  And that is the only time a sentence will ever contain flexibility and Dunn.

Nick Swisher – See Adam Dunn or 1/12th of an inch above.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones is in the same boat as Casey McGehee.  The added eligibility makes the gamble easier to take.

Chase Headley – Maybe it’s the three whiskey sours talking, but I’m sorta excited about Headley at third base this year.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Shortstop eligibility is a nice added bonus, so we’ll excuse him for fielding his position in the shape of a swastika.

CATCHERS

Chris Coste C (55), 1B (16)
Ramon Hernandez C (55), 1B (30)
Victor Martinez C (85), 1B (70)

1ST BASEMEN

Rich Aurilia 1B (22), 3B (13)
Willie Aybar 1B (31), 2B (28), 3B (18)
Jorge Cantu 1B (111), 3B (45)
Bobby Crosby 1B (54), 3B (42)
Chris Davis 1B (100), 3B (11)
Ryan Garko 1B (84), OF (12)
Ross Gload 1B (41), OF (10)
Mark Kotsay 1B (41), OF (20)
Daniel Murphy 1B (101), OF (27)
Fernando Tatis 1B (41), OF (28), 3B (27)
Ty Wigginton 1B (40), 3B (39)
Kevin Youkilis 1B (78), 3B (63)

2ND BASEMEN

Jeff Baker 2B (52), 3B (20)
Clint Barmes 2B (139), SS (16)
Ronnie Belliard 2B (60), 1B (15), 3B (12)
Andres Blanco 2B (40), SS (15)
Eric Bruntlett 2B (13), OF (10)
Alberto Callaspo 2B (146), 3B (14)
Jamey Carroll 2B (56), 3B (23)
Craig Counsell 2B (50), 3B (43), SS (27)
Mike Fontenot 2B (70), 3B (50)
Alberto Gonzalez 2B (55), SS (41)
Edgar Gonzalez 2B (15), OF (14)
Anderson Hernandez 2B (74), SS (38)
Omar Infante 2B (30), OF (16), 3B (10), SS (10)
Maicer Izturis 2B (68), SS (28)
Brent Lillibridge 2B (23), OF (12)
Jose Lopez 2B (141), 1B (16)
Jayson Nix 2B (52), SS (15), 3B (12)
Augie Ojeda 2B (35), SS (34), 3B (28)
Martin Prado 2B (63), 3B (41), 1B (28)
Nick Punto 2B (63), SS (58)
Omar Quintanilla 2B (25), SS (13), 3B (10)
Ryan Roberts 2B (57), 3B (19), OF (16)
Rusty Ryal 2B (13), 1B (10)
Skip Schumaker 2B (133), OF (54)
Matt Tolbert 2B (36), 3B (27ha)
Luis Valbuena 2B (75), SS (28)
Delwyn Young 2B (53), OF (30)
Ben Zobrist 2B (91), OF (70), SS (13)

SHORTSTOPS

Asdrubal Cabrera SS (100), 2B (28)
Juan Castro SS (28), 2B (20)
Ronnie Cedeno SS (82), 2B (13)
Alex Cora SS (56), 2B (19)
Khalil Greene SS (30), 3B (16)
Tyler Greene SS (30), 3B (11)
Brendan Harris SS (56), 3B (44), 2B (11)
Julio Lugo SS (56), 2B (30)
John McDonald SS (31), 3B (10)
Ramiro Pena SS (34), 3B (27)
Luis Rodriguez SS (34), 2B (30)
Brendan Ryan SS (105), 2B (19)
Ramon Santiago SS (69), 2B (29)
Ramon Vazquez SS (28), 2B (22), 3B (14)
Omar Vizquel SS (27), 3B (20), 2B (16)

3RD BASEMEN

Garrett Atkins 3B (78), 1B (28)
Geoff Blum 3B (102), 1B (10)
Emilio Bonifacio 3B (86), SS (20), OF (17)
Brian Buscher 3B (25), 1B (13)
Mark DeRosa 3B (108), OF (28), 1B (10)
Greg Dobbs 3B (16), OF (15)
Jerry Hairston Jr. 3B (49), SS (42), OF (41), 2B (12)
Jack Hannahan 3B (84), 1B (18)
Josh Fields 3B (49), 1B (17)
Jake Fox 3B (27), OF (26)
Adam Kennedy 3B (82), 2B (50)
Jeff Keppinger 3B (67), 2B (22), SS (11)
Mark Loretta 3B (23), 1B (17)
Casey McGehee 3B (71), 2B (22)
Jhonny Peralta 3B (104), SS (41)
Mark Reynolds 3B (130), 1B (28)
Adam Rosales 3B (57), 1B (11)
Pablo Sandoval 3B (120), 1B (26)
Ian Stewart 3B (121), 2B (21)
Mark Teahen 3B (107), OF (32)
Joe Thurston 3B (68), 2B (47)
Juan Uribe 3B (44), SS (41), 2B (38)
Chris Woodward 3B (18), 2B (11)

OUTFIELDERS

Jose Bautista OF (79), 3B (26)
Willie Bloomquist OF (84), SS (38), 2B (14)
Michael Cuddyer OF (117), 1B (34)
Adam Dunn OF (84), 1B (67)
Darin Erstad OF (28), 1B (15)
Willie Harris OF (98), 2B (19)
Chase Headley OF (114), 3B (28)
Eric Hinske OF (35), 3B (13)
Micah Hoffpauir OF (36), 1B (27)
Chris Gimenez OF (20), 1B (18)
Garrett Jones OF (53), 1B (30)
Matt LaPorta OF (39), 1B (10)
Robb Quinlan OF (23), 1B (17)
Ryan Raburn OF (70), 1B (10)
Bobby Scales OF (20), 2B (11)
Luke Scott OF (26), 1B (10)
Nick Swisher OF (134), 1B (20)
Eugenio Velez OF (51), 2B (31)

Last year, in 425 ABs, Stewart hit 25 homers.  With an every day job, he should get close to 30 homers.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, where the average is 5, last year Mark Reynolds had a 4.8; Ian Stewart had a 5.2.  Ian Stewart probably won’t steal 24 bases, but, frankly, Reynolds shouldn’t have stole that many either.  Stewart is more likely to steal 10 to 15 bases with an every day job.  Ian Stewart’s career BABIP is .310; last year he had a .275 mark.  So rather than the .228 average last year, that pushes him close to .250 average.  Because average is so fickle, Stewart should hit anywhere from .260 to .230.  At .260, he won’t kill you.  You need some luck there, but as you saw with Reynolds last year, it could happen.  One huge positive for Stewart, he has 2nd base eligibility.  So the worst case scenario is he’s a cheap Uggla.  But it all comes back to an every day job, right?  With his flexibility, I think he can easily sneak in 450 at-bats.  If he gets hot at the right time, he could see 500+ ABs.  Honestly, I wouldn’t have given Reynolds more than that going into 2009 either.  Will Stewart hit 44 homers and steal 24 bases like Mini Donkey?  Aw, heck’s no.  But no one saw that coming from Reynolds either.  Ian Stewart can hit 30 homers with 10 steals and a .260 average.  Also, there’s power upside for more.  At 2nd or 3rd base, that’s a nice little sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

Bruce’s .222 BABIP was the lowest for any hitter in the Major Leagues with 345 or more at-bats.  This can be partially attributed to a dip in his line drive rate and partially attributed to the luck of a guy who simultaneously loses his virginity and gets herpes.  The dip in the line drive rate is not a great sign, but homers can cause young hitters to do strange things.  In April and May, Bruce hit 14 homers combined as his average plummeted.  His fly ball rate also, for lack of a better word, skyrocketed.  He may have just been trying to do too much.  When he returned in September after his injury, he did so with an adjustment to his batting stance.  Choosing to honor Gregory Hines in a different way, he lost the toe tap.  Then he hit .326 with 4 homers, 17 RBIs in 46 at-bats in the portmanteau of Septober.  Also, and perhaps more importantly, his luck turned around (.367 BABIP) and his line drive rate sharpened (14.7%).  There will still be some growing pains, Ben Seaver, but Bruce is young enough to go from someone drafted like a third outfielder to someone who performs like a first.  I like Jay Bruce like Snooki loves pickles.

Like a kid in Porky’s, Wood appears to have finally found an opening.  He is an extreme hacker.  Last year, Wood stuckout 19 times in 18 games.  That’s not just a small sample size talking (size doesn’t matter, so I’ve said), but that’s more or less what we’re looking at with Wood.  If he gets in 140 games, he’ll K around that many times.  But who cares because the boy has pop.  He should easily hit 20 homers with every day playing time.  How much above that he goes will be the deciding factor on how valuable he will be.  If he can get to 30 homers, he’ll be a late round steal in fantasy leagues.  If he only gets 22 homers and hits .250, then he’s waiver wire fodder.  Late in drafts, he’s worth taking a flier on for that upside.  Another bright side, Wood can handle shortstop and Scioscia’s not afraid to move people around and play him there.  Wood may already have eligibility in some leagues at short, but not all.  At shortstop, he’s definitely worth a flier in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, Wood gets shortstop eligibility, hits 30 homers and keeps his average around .260.  Most likely scenario, he hits .240 and clubs 20 homers at third base.  Either way, Brandon Wood is worth a flier in 12 team or deeper mixed leagues and all AL-Only and keeper leagues.

Billy Wagner – Stop three on the NL East Tour pulls into Atlanta.  Right on his heels, Takashi Saito was signed by the Braves, too.  Wagner will be the closer with Saito being the first pickup all Wagner’s owners make in April.  Wagner will be in the bottom of the donkey-corns to start the season and should be underrated on draft day.  He’s no guarantee to stay healthy but saves are saves are saves.

Placido Polanco – Crapolanco could play in a gravitational acceleration chamber that mimics the moon and he’d go 8/8 while batting .300.  What a waste of that great hitter’s park.  It’s like sous vide-ing a wet sock.

42 flippin’ steals in 109 games in Triple-A makes him a sleeper.  Dur.  You’re not liable to get much else from Alcides in 2010.  Last year, in 38 games with the Brewers he hit .304.  I wouldn’t trust that like I wouldn’t trust a drunk Christopher Walken on a boat.  (<– Obscure reference compliments of the book I was reading in Barnes & Noble on Saturday (no idea why he didn’t name it Heart to Heart (and don’t ask me why I was reading it))).  In a full season of at-bats, Escobar will probably be ranked in the bottom 20 hitters for walks to strikeouts.  In 6 seasons of the minor leagues, he only walked 140 times in 2571 at-bats.  Blech.  So he needs to hit to get on base.  He does beat the ball into the ground, which is a good thing for a burner.  Still, I think you’re looking at a max .275 hitter in 2010.  He can chuck in a few homers, as well.  But you’re not drafting him for that.  What you want is steals, and he’ll provide ‘em.  I’d compare him to 2009 Elvis Andrus.  Not much, not much, steals.  Alcides Escobar is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper and exactly the kind of guy I’d look at late for MI.

In nearly 700 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Wieters had a line of .343/.438/.576.  At 6 feet 5 inches, he had some saying he was “Mauer with power.”  Turns out Mauer had power, which worked out for those who love to rhyme, and Wieters had rookie hiccups.  It wasn’t until the tail end of the year when Wieters started to show some of his promise, hitting .362/.425/.511 in September.  In 2010, Wieters could get to a line of 70/17/85/.300.  If those numbers look familiar, you might be Pablo Sandoval.  Check your midsection for confirmation.  That was near my 2009 projections for Sandoval; Wieters isn’t far off.  Those numbers are also a baseline.  There’s definite upside.  So there may just be magic in that cardboard sword of Lenn Sakata.  Heaven knows there’s magic in his loincloth.