Fantasy Baseball Advice

This post was almost titled, “Alcides Escobar, 2010 Fantasy Sleeper As Long As The Brewers Don’t Make A Boneheaded Decision To Start Hardy At Shortstop.”  Lo and behold, the Brewers fermented their yeast and unloaded Hardy — Hardy knew you! — and have committed to Alcides.  With him and Rickie Weeks up the middle in 2010 (at least for the first few days of the season until Weeks gets hurt), it could be an exciting time to be a Brewers fan, assuming you’re a fan of hitting; their pitching could be scary.  Not scary good, but scary scary.  So with Alcides Escobar playing full-time at shortstop, what can we expect of him for 2010 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

42 flippin’ steals in 109 games in Triple-A makes him a sleeper.  Dur.  You’re not liable to get much else from Alcides in 2010.  Last year, in 38 games with the Brewers he hit .304.  I wouldn’t trust that like I wouldn’t trust a drunk Christopher Walken on a boat.  (<– Obscure reference compliments of the book I was reading in Barnes & Noble on Saturday (no idea why he didn’t name it Heart to Heart (and don’t ask me why I was reading it))).  In a full season of at-bats, Escobar will probably be ranked in the bottom 20 hitters for walks to strikeouts.  In 6 seasons of the minor leagues, he only walked 140 times in 2571 at-bats.  Blech.  So he needs to hit to get on base.  He does beat the ball into the ground, which is a good thing for a burner.  Still, I think you’re looking at a max .275 hitter in 2010.  He can chuck in a few homers, as well.  But you’re not drafting him for that.  What you want is steals, and he’ll provide ‘em.  I’d compare him to 2009 Elvis Andrus.  Not much, not much, steals.  Alcides Escobar is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper and exactly the kind of guy I’d look at late for MI.

As legend goes, on May 30th, 1982, Orioles utility infielder, Lenn Sakata was so inspired by the hit film of the day, Conan the Barbarian, that he dressed in animal skin Jockey underwear “borrowed” from Jim Palmer and carried a cardboard sword into the locker room.  Now whether Cal Ripken (then Cal Ripken Jr.) knew the power in that cardboard sword or if he was just patronizing Sakata no one knows, but Ripken knelt on the floor in front of Sakata and asked him to touch his shoulder with the cardboard sword.  With a grand gesture, that was probably unnecessary, Sakata obliged.  As we all know, May 30th, 1982 began The Streak.  On the record, Ripken thanked his family and teammates for their support for making The Streak possible.  Off the record, of course, Ripken knew it was Lenn Sakata that forever changed history.  This year, Lenn Sakata returned to the Orioles locker room, dressed in only faux leather boots and a loincloth.  Most of the Orioles thought Sakata was a homeless person that snuck past security… Some thought he was the Asian guy from The Hangover… But Matt Wieters knew different.  Before security could escort Sakata out, Wieters knelt in front of him and asked Lenn to touch him with the cardboard sword.  The same cardboard sword that once touched Ripken’s shoulder.  (It also touched a young Jeffrey Hammonds’s shoulder.  Nevertheless…)  For the superstitious, this is enough for Matt Wieters to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but for the non-believers, let’s look at some other reasons.

In nearly 700 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Wieters had a line of .343/.438/.576.  At 6 feet 5 inches, he had some saying he was “Mauer with power.”  Turns out Mauer had power, which worked out for those who love to rhyme, and Wieters had rookie hiccups.  It wasn’t until the tail end of the year when Wieters started to show some of his promise, hitting .362/.425/.511 in September.  In 2010, Wieters could get to a line of 70/17/85/.300.  If those numbers look familiar, you might be Pablo Sandoval.  Check your midsection for confirmation.  That was near my 2009 projections for Sandoval; Wieters isn’t far off.  Those numbers are also a baseline.  There’s definite upside.  So there may just be magic in that cardboard sword of Lenn Sakata.  Heaven knows there’s magic in his loincloth.

Third base is not getting deeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.  It’s just not.  If Jacques Cousteau played fantasy baseball and was still alive, he wouldn’t even need a snorkel to see the bottom of the 3rd base basin.  Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.  There’s guys at the top (Longoria, Wright, Sandoval, Zimmerman, Youuuuuuk, Reynolds, A-Rod and Young).  There’s plenty of schmohawks at the bottom (Cantu, Blake, Lowell).  But there’s not a whole lot of guys at the bottom that could move to the top.  You’re gonna have to deal with it.  After Michael Young, there will be a drop off.  Some of the upside picks at 3rd will be Ian Stewart, Casey McGehee and Gordon Beckham.  Each of those guys will probably get a fantasy baseball keeper or sleeper post dedicated to them.  Today, it’s 2010 fantasy baseball keeper (and sleeper) time as we look at Gordon Shumway Beckham.

In 378 at-bats last year, Gordon Beckham came away with the line of 58/14/63/.270/7.  The Royal We is not going to sit and say add 50 games worth of stats to his numbers and look at how beautiful they are, but it’s fair to say he will get more Runs.  Ozzie hit him 2nd for 218 at-bats.  There’s no reason why that should stop.  So let’s give him 85 Runs.  Since we can’t have our ice cream and cake and cake and eat it too, I’m not going to give him any more RBIs.  If he’s batting 2nd, he’s not also batting 8th. (It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.)  Beckham stole more bases when he hit 2nd than anywhere else in the order.  (Not many, but still it is true.)  So let’s say he gets 14 steals.  He did steal 18 bases in his last year of college, so it’s not a huge termite-infested limb we’re traipsing out onto.  He hit more homers from the two hole.  Not sure what lineup protection he actually got from the middle of the White Sox order, but let’s assume he did.  So let’s give him 18 homers.  Seems pretty conservative.  I like that.  Less you expect, less you’re disappointed.  He strikes out a decent amount and he’s prone to slumps.   Average can come down from .270.  Doesn’t have to, but can.  Let’s assume it does.  Again, less expectations.  Okay, so we have a 2010 line of 85/18/63/.260/14.  That’s a top 10 3rd baseman with upside for a bit more.  I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.