Fantasy Baseball Advice

Many things have changed since November when we kicked off the 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper posts.  For one, the date.  For two, some of these guys are no longer that sleepery.  For three, hut-hut-hike!  As long as you don’t reach too far, sleepers can make all the difference on your team.  You’re not grabbing a sleeper in the first round.  You’re not like, “Hey, Drunky Cabrera, you walk that line, I’m going with Garrett Jones.”  You should have a solid foundation in the first eight to ten rounds, then mix some sleepers in after that.  If you click on the names for these players, there’s entire posts about them with their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some sleepers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Alcides Escobar – Forty steals from Alcides wouldn’t be surprising.  He’s especially nice if Web Gems is a category in your league.

Colby Rasmus – In front of Pujols and Holliday might hinder Rasmus’ running game, but he should still be good for 15-20 homers and 10 to 15 steals.

Ian Stewart – Who is this Ian Stewart you talk of?  I have never heard of him.  Okay, no fooling, but the other night I had a dream that Ian Stewart had a complete collapse and was benched for Mora.  Granted, the girl from Seymore Butts and Thomas Jefferson were also in the dream and I was smoking opium… Nevertheless!  Stewart’s really not far away from sleeper sell material if you need to draft him in the top 100.  12th round or higher?  Much better.  (Side note, I was at a sushi restaurant the other day — Grey loves sushi as much as he loves referring to himself in third person.  Was sitting at the sushi bar when a smoking hot girl sits down next me.  It was the girl from Seymore Butts.  I didn’t recognize her.  You can giggle and say I’m lying.  You’d be surprised how unrecognizable a porn star is in clothes.  It’s like putting glasses on Clark Kent.  So we start talking and she reveals who she is and asks me if I’d like a few free DVDs.  She has them in her car, which is parked in the back.  I agree; you would’ve too.  Don’t judge.  She gives me 5 DVDs.  For those who aren’t hip to porn DVDs.  Their covers are graphic.  As we said goodbye, I realized I was parked in the front of the restaurant at a meter.  Yes, I had to walk back through the restaurant to get to my car.  I could’ve stuck the DVDs under my shirt, but I manned up, and walked very quickly.  Still, everyone saw what I was carrying.  The sushi chefs’ smiles were priceless.  A group of women dining there looked at me like I was everything wrong with men.  Finally, I get outside.  Only to find a female meter maid giving me a ticket.  I put the DVDs behind my back and rush up to her.  Please, I tell her, I’m leaving right now.  It’s already started.  Buh-buh-but!  Just then, a group of teenagers approach from behind me and start screaming, “Check out his videos!  He’s a pervert!”  Yeah, I took the parking ticket.)

Brandon Wood – The time appears now, unless Scioscia thinks the time is not now and he goes with The Figgy Duets (Maicer and Aybar).  If Wood penetrates the lineup (sticking with today’s post theme), he could be Ian Stewart 10 rounds later.

Jay Bruce – If Bruce does what he’s capable of, he will be overrated in 2011.

Dexter Fowler – Sorry, even sometimes I admire my own work and the post title under Fowler’s name is classic.  And I don’t even get Showtime!  Fowler is in the unenviable position of a crowded outfield.  If he stumbles out of the gate, I could see his time being reduced.

Carlos Gonzalez – I’ve been meaning to write an entire post on this, but Spring Training’s falling through the hourglass, so this post will have to do.  CarGo has to deal with a crowded outfield too.  Somehow CarGo’s risen way up draft sheets while Fowler’s stayed pretty reasonable.  A 10/30 season from Fowler seems as likely as a 20/20 season from CarGo.  No reason CarGo should be priced that much higher.  I have CarGo about 20 places higher in my rankings.  Yet, I hear people returning from a draft where Fowler isn’t drafted at all and CarGo is going in the first 100 picks.  Huh?

Chris Davis – I’m a sucker for low average, high power, some speed guys.  It’s the new three outcome player.

Julio Borbon – Yeah, the Rockies and the Rangers have some upside candidates.

Nolan Reimold – Heal, Achilles’ heel.  Please.

Garrett Jones – Everyone seems to think Garrett Jones can’t build on his 2009.  And I’m kinda in that group.  But still, the Pirates will play him and he’s not exactly being drafted that high.

David Price – I gotta be honest, I’ve seen Price in drafts and I’ve had a hard time pulling the trigger.  I just picture myself curled up in a ball crying while watching him pitch against the Yankees or Red Sox.

Jonathan Sanchez – I’ve had no problem drafting this doode.

Carlos Quentin – If he can stay healthy, he’ll be overrated next year.  *fingers crossed*

Denard Span -  Yeah, he’s pretty yawnstipating, but there’s a place for that on some teams. (Damn, that was the worst sales pitch since David Price’s blurb.)

Geovany Soto – When he showed up camp forty pounds lighter, Soto said, “I used to be a little sluggish — like ‘I want to take a nap.’  Now I feel great and I just want to put myself in the best position to help the club.”  Sounds like a line from an afterschool special about how marijuana is a gateway drug.

Elvis Andrus – I’ve almost convinced myself that Andrus is going to be as valuable this year as Jose Reyes circa 2008.  Almost.  Like in a game of horseshoes.  A game of horseshoes!

Rookie pitchers give you a roofie.  Rookie hitters give you agita.  So why do we keep going back for more like a guest on Oprah?  It’s sorta like the old joke that Woody Allen quotes in Annie Hall.  We need the eggs.  Besides said eggs, if a rookie somehow/someway breaks out, he’ll help you win your championship.  Face it, if you draft properly in the first 7 to 10 rounds, your team will be competitive, but so should other teams.  It’s what you do after those rounds that makes the difference.  You’re not winning your league with A-Rod, but you could with Ian Desmond.  As wonky as that sounds, it’s true.  If you click on the player’s name, you’ll find whole posts and projections for each guy.  It’s like Santa woke up drunk in March.  Anyway, here’s some rookies to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80′s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the player’s name to read more about them and to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.