Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is what I’m hoping for… You know how in different cities — really just Philly, but I want it in different cities — there’s a core group of fans for a certain player and they personalize it with their own touch?  For instance, there was Padilla’s Flotilla, which saw fans paddling around in sombreros… Or The Wolf Pack, complete with werewolf masks… Or Moyer’s Lawyers; I hear they represented Mrs. Myers…  So at Nats home games, I want a group of fans dressed up in early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms.  They can be the House of Strasburgs.  Every time Stephen Strasburg strikes someone out, they do the call and answer chant of, “Who’s house?” “Strasburg’s house!”  Then Mike Aubrey, the DC realtor with a Hitler ‘stache, goose-steps through the bleachers and they all run for the hills, singing the title song from “The Sound of Music.”  Or not.  So much has already been written about Stephen Strasburg and he’s yet to throw a pitch for the Nats, but can he help you for 2010 fantasy baseball?

Maybe.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and 120 Ks in 100 innings after a June call-up.  Terrific, ownable, not draftable for where he’ll be taken.  (This doesn’t count for keepers.  There I can see going after him.)  Rookies are already risky endeavors.  Rookie pitchers, more so.  The last seven number one draft picks were Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton, Luke Hochevar, David Price, Tim Beckham and Strasburg.  One guy in those seven helped you in 2009.  Two and a half guys are draftable for 2010.  Yes, for the first time in his life, Delmon Young is being considered a half of a man…. Like he’s any smaller than the 1/2 on that Charlie Sheen/Jon Cryer sitcom.  Right now, Strasburg is pitching just over a 5 ERA in 4 starts in the Arizona Fall League.  Doesn’t matter, he’ll probably still be hyped in 2010.  Wait to see how Strasburg pitches in the spring.  If he pitches well, cool, let someone else waste a higher than warranted draft pick on him, then watch Strasburg sit in the minors for a few months.  Strasburg should be a great one, but let some other poor schmuck get the ill-advised chest tattoo that reads, “Strasburg for Prez in 2010.”

With Grady Sizemore dealing with an elbow issue and Tom Sizemore responsible for The Smoking Gun updates, finally we have a Sizemore that had a good 2009.  Scott Sizemore is the 2nd base prospect for the Tigers.  I know what you’re thinking, Crapolanco’s got 2nd base locked down, son.  Well, Dad, Crapolanco is entering free agency this winter so his time in Detroit may be over.  So, let’s assume that 2nd base is vacated for Sizemore in 2010, can he help you in fantasy baseball leagues?

In 520 at-bats between Double and Triple-A, Sizemore hit 17 homers and stole 21 bags while maintaining .308/.389/.500. He only lost about 60 points in slugging when he moved from Double-A to Triple and his line drive rate actually got better.  (More on Scott Sizemore’s minor league numbers.)  One drawback is he’s starting to ripen late for a prospect (he’ll be 25 years old in 2010).  He needs to make the move this year.  And, to be fair, if he played outfield, I may not be talking about him, but at 2nd base giddy-up.  Leyland has shown he doesn’t have any qualms about playing a rookie.  Incredibly, he batted a rookie third for about 200 at-bats in 2009.  Also, knowing Leyland’s tendency to save trees by Liquid Papering lineup cards, he may simply replace Polanco in the two hole with Sizemore. With a starting job, Sizemore could mean 80/14/70/.275/16 with upside from there.  This is exactly the kind of guy I would take a flier on at MI late in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  If he doesn’t pan out, then you grab Felipe Lopez or some other schmohawk.  So if you go with Sizemores for $300 and the answer is, “He has two working elbows and a blood alcohol level under .25.”  The question is, who is Scott Sizemore?

What I’d really like to see is a Major Leaguer go to Cuba to play.  Kevin Youkilis grows out his beard another five inches, jumps in a raft and paddles to Havana.  He tears up the Cuban Leagues on a steady diet of fastballs and plantains.  This could end the Cold War for good. (It might already be over.  I’m not good at history.)  Dayan Viciedo is the latest Cuban prospect to defect (actually Aroldis Chapman is the latest; whatevs, it’s an introductory paragraph).  With his defection… (Speaking of which, talk about a word that had nothing going for it.  You don’t want a defect in anything, unless you’re defecting from somewhere… I found that interesting.  Semantics?  Perhaps.) Dayan hit well in spring training and people were saying that the White Sox had done it again with a Cuban prospect, just like Alexei Ramirez; this was before that was an insult.  Early on, Viciedo struggled in the minors (Scouting the Unknown went over Dayan’s minor stats in June), then turned things around a bit as the season progressed.  So can Dayan Viciedo help your fantasy baseball team in 2010?

I’m going to say doubtful with a chance of “not at all.”  As with other recent Cuban raftees, Viciedo likes to swing the bat and doesn’t do much walking.  In his first year of the minors at Double-A, he had a .317 OBP with 89 Ks to 23 walks.  He can probably have success with this approach, because he do what he do.  His line drive percentages went up in the 2nd half of the year, showing he was making better contact.  Really his terrible April brought everything down.  Interesting (to me, at least), in April he had his lowest line drive rate and highest fly ball rate as his numbers suffered.  The Akron Chapter of Speculating on Small Sample Sizes says, maybe he was trying to do too much in his first month of minor league ball.  He’s still (supposedly) only 20 years old.  Another year (or at least a half year) will do him good.  Best case scenario, two to three months in Triple-A and a mid-summer call up.  Worst case scenario, we don’t see him until 2011.  Outside of keepers, I wouldn’t bother with him in your March 2010 drafts.