Fantasy Baseball Advice

In our ongoing 2010 fantasy baseball rookie look, we bring you a name I went over as recently as August in a Neftali Feliz keeper post.  Thank you for reading from The Department of Redundancy Department!  Because he still falls in the rookie category (under 50 innings pitched), I must, I must increase my Neftali Feliz fuss.  Feliz went to the Rangers from the Braves in the trade of Teixeira.  (Also included in that trade was Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltymochachino.  This was the last major move by Schuerholz.  It’s like when your boss at El Pollo Loco tells you in the morning that today is your last day, then you replace the shredded cheese with your pubic hair and rob the cash register, leaving a note that says, “It was the new guy.”  Schuerholz left that note for Frank Wren.)  Feliz proceeded to cruise through the minors — in 276 innings, he had 325 Ks and a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.  Then he dominated in the majors — in 31 innings, 39 Ks, 1.74 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP.  What’s next?  The moon!  Gravity’s for junk ball throwers!  But, first, let’s look at what we can expect from Neftali Feliz in 2010 fantasy baseball.

10-7/4.42/1.35/102 in 128 and a 1/3 innings.  Wow, pretty specific on the predictions, huh?  Actually, those are David Price’s numbers in 2009.  I tell you that line so you keep expectations in check.  Neftali Feliz is going to be a great one.  I think there’s a good chance that he can throw 130 innings in 2010 (whether the Rangers start him in the rotation or bullpen or bring him up in June is still unknown).  He’s capable of a terrific 130 innings.  There’s a chance, at least.  Chance being the key word.  Rookie pitchers, even ones that have nasty stuff, are a risk.  Don’t expect a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP over the course of the season.  The nice thing is he can strikeout one guy per inning.  There will likely be hiccups.  There always is.  There’s also rumblings that he might get moved to the bullpen to be groomed to be the closer.  I doubt it happens, but those are rumblings you should be aware of.  To be conservative, I’d say Neftali Feliz’s 2010 is 130 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 120 Ks.  Definitely someone that can be a solid number 3 to 4 in fantasy.  Upside, I’d say his 2010 looks like Tommy Hanson’s 2009.  So if you can get Feliz, you should be happy. (Spanish pun point for Grey.)

Carlos Santana is getting a 2010 fantasy baseball rookie post because I know people will ask about him.  See, I’m psychic.  BTW, I wouldn’t bring in the mail today.  Just a bunch of bills and a 20% off coupon for Bed, Bath and Beyond.  Carlos Santana is the catcher prospect the Dodgers traded to the Indians for Casey Blake.  TMZ reported Jamie McCourt did the aforementioned trade because Carlos Santana looks eerily similar to Edward James Olmos, who was Frank McCourt’s reason for watching “every single, goddamn Miami Vice rerun.”  Only later did Mrs. McCourt find out that that was the wrong Carlos Santana.  At 23, Carlos Santana just finished up his best season in the minor leagues slashing .290/.413/.530 at Double-A.  Showing solid plate discipline, he walked more times than he struckout.  He knocked in 97 RBIs and hit 23 homers in 130 games and was named the 2009 Eastern League Most Valuable Player Award after winning the 2008 California League MVP.  (Scouting the Unknown went over Carlos Santana’s minor league numbers in further detail.)  So can Carlos Santana help you in 2010 fantasy baseball?

There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana.  His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs.  I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest.  If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper.  But really that’s only true because of his position.  If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats.  Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible.  (Sidenote:  As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold.  Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived.  He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats.  Now that seems implausible.)  If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones.  In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up.  If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year.  Game, set, natch.

Last year, Brandon Allen treaded his six-two, two-hundred and thirty-five pound man-gams through Double- and Triple-A before hitting the majors in August.  And by hitting the majors, I don’t mean hitting in the majors.  As Lil Jon once said in grade school, I come correct with my prepositions, okaaaay!!!!!  In the minors in 2009, Allen slashed .298/.373/.503 with 20 homers, cutting his strikeout rate for the 2nd year in a row.  However, that didn’t carry over to the majors, whiffing 40 times in 104 at-bats.  Though, that was a small sample size… that’s what she said! (Stephen broke him down further in his Diamondbacks Prospect Review.)  For Brandon Allen to make an impact in 2010 fantasy baseball, he needs a spot to play.  Oh well, right?  Not so fast, Alex P. Keaton on speed.

What do Chad Tracy, Tony Clark, Conor Jackson, Josh Whitesell, Rusty Ryal and Chris Snyder have in common?  They suck.  They also played 1st base for the Diamondbacks at some point in 2009.  (Mark Reynolds played 28 games at 1st too, but I have it on good authority he wants to play 3rd… Actually, I don’t have it on any authority.  I’m educated-guessing here.  The Diamondbacks would be better with Reynolds at 3rd and Allen at 1st.)  So over the top rope comes the big-boned Brandon Allen.  He should get an ample opportunity in Spring Training to win the job.  If he can break camp with the Diamondbacks, he’ll be a solid sleeper for power in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper at a corner infidel spot.  In NL-Only leagues, he’ll be draftable as a sleeper 1st baseman.  He should provide power, if nothing else.  You’re looking at a 20 homer hitter with a chance for a bit more.  He’ll probably hurt you on average, but what else is new from a Diamondhack hitter?  Windmills were once used for pumping water through primitive irrigation systems.  Maybe the swings and misses are how the Diamondbacks keep the hot tub bubbling in the right field stands at Chase Field.

Last year, Desmond Jennings won the Rays Minor League Player of the Year honors.  In Double and Triple-A in 2009, Desmond Jennings had a slash line of .305/.391/.457 while chucking in 11 homers.  You might be thinking it was a slow year in the Rays organization.  Yeah, the opposite is true here, friend.  Jennings stole 52 bases.  (His minor league ups and downs were broken down further in a Scouting the Unknown in June.)  To recap, 11 homers and 52 steals.  HAVE MY CHILDREN!  Whoa, Mr. Caps Lock, get excited much?  YES!  Who are you, Desmond Jennings?  Carl Crawford?  They are both 6 ’2″.  They both play center field.  Both have teen power and 50 steal base potential.  Yes, I have thousands of pictures of Jennings ready to go up on my bedroom walls.  So Jennings is a slam dunk for 2010 fantasy baseball, right?

The similarities are both his pluses and minuses.  If Crawford is in left field and Upton is in center, does Jennings play short center?   Few things can happen, Crawford gets moved so Jennings can do exactly the same thing in his stead.  Jennings gets held back in the minors because there’s no room right now for him.  Or the Rays go with the All-Drool outfield of Upton, Crawford and Jennings; I’m sure this is the option Rays pitchers want.  Now things don’t always work out, remember I was caca-cuckoo for Cameron Maybin in the preseason last year.  If Jennings gets the call to start in the beginning of the year, I’d own him in ten team mixed leagues.  Shoot, I’m ready to take him in NL-Only leagues for s’s and g’s.  If he gets the every day job, this won’t be the last you’ve heard of him.  He’s exactly the kind of rookie that can have an immediate impact for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Quick, somebody make Crawford glue, I have pictures to paste!

First, I looked for anecdotal evidence on Mr. Stanton.  I found in 2007 the Red Sox offered to trade Manny to the Marlins, while paying his salary, for Mike Stanton.  The Marlins obviously refused.  Interesting, but the last time Marlins traded a prospect for a big name was exactly never.  Still, the Marlins (along with others) saw something in the then 17-year-old.  At 18, Stanton didn’t disappoint.  In Single-A, he hit 39 homers while slashing .293/.381/.611.  There’s light tower power in his man-frame of 6’5″, 210 lbs. (for those in San Diego, that’s 3 and a half David Ecksteins, but only three-quarters of a Kyle Blanks.  Or Blanks sans afro.).  Last year, Stanton continued his assault on minor league pitching in High-A, then hit his first roadblock at Double-A.  Unable to make the necessary adjustments, he saw the one part of his game that was exploitable exploited.  He’s a hacker.  Even when he hit the 39 homers in 125 games in A, he struck out 153 times.  Last year, he K’d 99 times in 79 Double-A games, which led to .231/.311/.455.  By far his worst showing in his young career.  (Scouting the Unknown took a further look at Mike Stanton’s minor league numbers in July.)  He’s still very young and he was killing it (<–courtesy of T.J. Lavin) in the Arizona Fall League.  Leading the league with a .478 average through 6 games, when he was shut down with a sore back.  Supposedly, it was just precautionary and he’ll be fine for Spring Training.  So what can we expect of Mike Stanton for 2010 fantasy baseball?

I expect him to be given a chance in Spring Training to show off his ginourmous power, but be sent to Double-A to start the season.  If he can make the necessary adjustments, we can see him around mid-season.  For all their frugality, the Marlins aggressively promote/play their prospects (then trade them when they hit arbitration. Lates, Uggla.).  He’ll only be 20 in 2010 and still might be a full year away from contributing in fantasy.  I wouldn’t touch Stanton in one year leagues until he is definitely playing on the Marlins.  In deep NL-Only and keeper leagues, he should be owned coming out of your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.