In NCAA play, Matusz flat-out dominated with an 88-92 MPH fastball and two plus off-speed pitches.  In the minors, it was more of the same — 113 IP, 1.91 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 121 Ks.  He gets the short end of the stick when people speak of the Double Stuff Orioles (Chris Tillman and Matusz).  Truthfully, I would’ve done a rookie post on Tillman first too, if he were still a rookie.  And if you’re rooting for Matusz over Tillman, you might secretly be a Mariners fan.  Matusz doesn’t project to be the ace that Tillman does, but he can be a solid number two.  Definitely will be exciting when he does reach his ceiling.  For 2010 fantasy baseball, I’d broach Matusz with caution.  Think a very up and down 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 145 Ks in 150 innings. Ownable, but at times you’ll need some Milk of Magnesia.

Are you wearing your aluminum foil hat for better TV reception?  Yes, he can help you.  That’s what I’m saying.  Flip off your lid for a second, would ya?  As I said with other fantasy baseball rookie catcher posts, Posey is not as exciting at any other position in 2010, but he’s a catcher so yay.  He’s exactly the kind of guy you should take a flier on late for your catcher spot in 12 team leagues and deeper.  Let’s just hope he doesn’t get as hyped in the preseason as Wieters did in 2009.  If you have to draft Posey too high, he’s going to lose all value.  In 2010, I’d put Posey’s projections at 55/14/65/.290/3.  Of course, if Posey doesn’t make the club out of Spring Training for some crazy, unforeseen reason, then you don’t draft him.  Cool?  Cool.

Maybe, but not at first is my short answer.  Along with Mike Stanton’s mom, I like Mike Stanton better.  Morrison did work in A and High A in 2007 and ’08, respectively.  Only pseudo-red flag was his homers dropped a bit from ’07 to ’08, but his doubles almost, you guessed it, doubled.  Resulting in him winning MVP honors.  In 2009, a fracture in his wrist knocked him out for about 2 months.  He still managed an OBP of .411, and five homers in the month of July, which is a nice sign the wrist injury isn’t lingering.  Morrison is still only 22 so the Marlins will probably hold off on bringing up, but if they do (remember, like that pony-tailed guy standing in front of your student union, the Marlins promote aggressively), then he will definitely be someone to look at.  Though all I expect in 2010 is 30/7/45/.265/3 and a mid-season call up.  Not worth it in mixed leagues, but definitely someone to look at in NL-Only and keeper leagues.

Since we’re friends, I’m going to tell you that I’m on the fence with how much I want to push Ian Desmond on you, loyal Razzball reader. On one hand, he can be FraGuish.  On the other hand, how much ‘ish is he?  Is he 97% FraGuish?  Is he 55% FraGuish?  So much anGuish!  Then when I look at the numbers a different way, I think he might be more FeLopezian.  So let’s see what we know.  His stealing percentages in the minors were dreadful at times.  In Double-A in 2008, he stole 12 bases and was caught 8 times.  In 2009, 13 for 17 in Double-A then 8 for 9 in Triple-A.  When he reached the Nats, he stole one base in 21 games and the Nats don’t steal that much. So I think Desmond has 25-plus steal speed, but may only steal 15 bases.  Now for the power.  In his first major league game, he hit a 434 foot bomb. Though its true distance is less. (Still not clear on what true distance is.  I like to think it’s measured in unicorns because that would ironic.  BTW, if you wanna lose three hours of your life, play around with this site.) So Desmond can generate power, but he’s not a really a power hitter.  Ten homers seems like a lot to ask of him, but he could get to 15.  Hmm… That brings me back to FraGuish.  So I guess we’ll settle on 10/20 for Desmond with the hope of more and the fear of less.  Though, because the shortstop position is so shallow, 10/20 is a great sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball and definitely someone to look at late in drafts.

Um, yeah.  Ain’t that what I’ve been saying?  Since that Scouting the Unknown, Heyward moved up the Braves minor league ranks.  Hitting at a .352/.446/.611 clip at Double-A in 47 games, then .364/.462/.364 in only three games at Triple-A.  Sample size be damned!  Heyward can hit with power and has speed.  He had a leg injury in the AFL, but it shouldn’t hinder him for 2010.  He’ll be a first rounder in fantasy at some point in the near future.  My guess would be 2012 (assuming the Mayans are wrong).  Barring any trades this offseason for outfield pieces, the Braves could use Heyward immediately.  Okay, I’ll rephrase.  The Braves could use a productive Heyward.  As Schafer proved last April, the Braves will give a chance to a rookie, but he must produce.  I could see Heyward staying in the minors until June or breaking camp with the team.  If Heyward comes out of the gate galloping his pony sticks and mollywhopping with his man hands, he could give you a very cheap 12/20 season.  I like him late in mixed leagues if he has a starting gig out of Spring Training.  In keepers, he’s a must have and I could see drafting him in one year NL-Only leagues even if he starts the year in the minors.  i.e. My love is still strong on Jason Heyward for 2010 fantasy baseball.

10-7/4.42/1.35/102 in 128 and a 1/3 innings.  Wow, pretty specific on the predictions, huh?  Actually, those are David Price’s numbers in 2009.  I tell you that line so you keep expectations in check.  Neftali Feliz is going to be a great one.  I think there’s a good chance that he can throw 130 innings in 2010 (whether the Rangers start him in the rotation or bullpen or bring him up in June is still unknown).  He’s capable of a terrific 130 innings.  There’s a chance, at least.  Chance being the key word.  Rookie pitchers, even ones that have nasty stuff, are a risk.  Don’t expect a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP over the course of the season.  The nice thing is he can strikeout one guy per inning.  There will likely be hiccups.  There always is.  There’s also rumblings that he might get moved to the bullpen to be groomed to be the closer.  I doubt it happens, but those are rumblings you should be aware of.  To be conservative, I’d say Neftali Feliz’s 2010 is 130 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 120 Ks.  Definitely someone that can be a solid number 3 to 4 in fantasy.  Upside, I’d say his 2010 looks like Tommy Hanson’s 2009.  So if you can get Feliz, you should be happy. (Spanish pun point for Grey.)

There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana.  His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs.  I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest.  If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper.  But really that’s only true because of his position.  If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats.  Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible.  (Sidenote:  As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold.  Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived.  He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats.  Now that seems implausible.)  If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones.  In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up.  If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year.  Game, set, natch.

What do Chad Tracy, Tony Clark, Conor Jackson, Josh Whitesell, Rusty Ryal and Chris Snyder have in common?  They suck.  They also played 1st base for the Diamondbacks at some point in 2009.  (Mark Reynolds played 28 games at 1st too, but I have it on good authority he wants to play 3rd… Actually, I don’t have it on any authority.  I’m educated-guessing here.  The Diamondbacks would be better with Reynolds at 3rd and Allen at 1st.)  So over the top rope comes the big-boned Brandon Allen.  He should get an ample opportunity in Spring Training to win the job.  If he can break camp with the Diamondbacks, he’ll be a solid sleeper for power in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper at a corner infidel spot.  In NL-Only leagues, he’ll be draftable as a sleeper 1st baseman.  He should provide power, if nothing else.  You’re looking at a 20 homer hitter with a chance for a bit more.  He’ll probably hurt you on average, but what else is new from a Diamondhack hitter?  Windmills were once used for pumping water through primitive irrigation systems.  Maybe the swings and misses are how the Diamondbacks keep the hot tub bubbling in the right field stands at Chase Field.

The similarities are both his pluses and minuses.  If Crawford is in left field and Upton is in center, does Jennings play short center?   Few things can happen, Crawford gets moved so Jennings can do exactly the same thing in his stead.  Jennings gets held back in the minors because there’s no room right now for him.  Or the Rays go with the All-Drool outfield of Upton, Crawford and Jennings; I’m sure this is the option Rays pitchers want.  Now things don’t always work out, remember I was caca-cuckoo for Cameron Maybin in the preseason last year.  If Jennings gets the call to start in the beginning of the year, I’d own him in ten team mixed leagues.  Shoot, I’m ready to take him in NL-Only leagues for s’s and g’s.  If he gets the every day job, this won’t be the last you’ve heard of him.  He’s exactly the kind of rookie that can have an immediate impact for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Quick, somebody make Crawford glue, I have pictures to paste!

I expect him to be given a chance in Spring Training to show off his ginourmous power, but be sent to Double-A to start the season.  If he can make the necessary adjustments, we can see him around mid-season.  For all their frugality, the Marlins aggressively promote/play their prospects (then trade them when they hit arbitration. Lates, Uggla.).  He’ll only be 20 in 2010 and still might be a full year away from contributing in fantasy.  I wouldn’t touch Stanton in one year leagues until he is definitely playing on the Marlins.  In deep NL-Only and keeper leagues, he should be owned coming out of your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.

Maybe.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and 120 Ks in 100 innings after a June call-up.  Terrific, ownable, not draftable for where he’ll be taken.  (This doesn’t count for keepers.  There I can see going after him.)  Rookies are already risky endeavors.  Rookie pitchers, more so.  The last seven number one draft picks were Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton, Luke Hochevar, David Price, Tim Beckham and Strasburg.  One guy in those seven helped you in 2009.  Two and a half guys are draftable for 2010.  Yes, for the first time in his life, Delmon Young is being considered a half of a man…. Like he’s any smaller than the 1/2 on that Charlie Sheen/Jon Cryer sitcom.  Right now, Strasburg is pitching just over a 5 ERA in 4 starts in the Arizona Fall League.  Doesn’t matter, he’ll probably still be hyped in 2010.  Wait to see how Strasburg pitches in the spring.  If he pitches well, cool, let someone else waste a higher than warranted draft pick on him, then watch Strasburg sit in the minors for a few months.  Strasburg should be a great one, but let some other poor schmuck get the ill-advised chest tattoo that reads, “Strasburg for Prez in 2010.”

In 520 at-bats between Double and Triple-A, Sizemore hit 17 homers and stole 21 bags while maintaining .308/.389/.500. He only lost about 60 points in slugging when he moved from Double-A to Triple and his line drive rate actually got better.  (More on Scott Sizemore’s minor league numbers.)  One drawback is he’s starting to ripen late for a prospect (he’ll be 25 years old in 2010).  He needs to make the move this year.  And, to be fair, if he played outfield, I may not be talking about him, but at 2nd base giddy-up.  Leyland has shown he doesn’t have any qualms about playing a rookie.  Incredibly, he batted a rookie third for about 200 at-bats in 2009.  Also, knowing Leyland’s tendency to save trees by Liquid Papering lineup cards, he may simply replace Polanco in the two hole with Sizemore. With a starting job, Sizemore could mean 80/14/70/.275/16 with upside from there.  This is exactly the kind of guy I would take a flier on at MI late in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  If he doesn’t pan out, then you grab Felipe Lopez or some other schmohawk.  So if you go with Sizemores for $300 and the answer is, “He has two working elbows and a blood alcohol level under .25.”  The question is, who is Scott Sizemore?

I’m going to say doubtful with a chance of “not at all.”  As with other recent Cuban raftees, Viciedo likes to swing the bat and doesn’t do much walking.  In his first year of the minors at Double-A, he had a .317 OBP with 89 Ks to 23 walks.  He can probably have success with this approach, because he do what he do.  His line drive percentages went up in the 2nd half of the year, showing he was making better contact.  Really his terrible April brought everything down.  Interesting (to me, at least), in April he had his lowest line drive rate and highest fly ball rate as his numbers suffered.  The Akron Chapter of Speculating on Small Sample Sizes says, maybe he was trying to do too much in his first month of minor league ball.  He’s still (supposedly) only 20 years old.  Another year (or at least a half year) will do him good.  Best case scenario, two to three months in Triple-A and a mid-summer call up.  Worst case scenario, we don’t see him until 2011.  Outside of keepers, I wouldn’t bother with him in your March 2010 drafts.