Fantasy Baseball Advice

You may have noticed a pattern thus far with the fantasy baseball rookie posts, they’re mostly hitters.  This is done on purpose.  Hitters give you nothing and it’s a 3-for-50 line and you move on.  A pitcher gives you nothing in the way of 5 IP, 10 ER and a 2.00 WHIP line and you wanna crawl into a ball in the corner of your shower and cry like you just figured out Einhorn is Finkle and Finkle is Einhorn.  Rookies and Craigslist ads that read, “5′ 7″, 120 lbs., fitness model who loves cooking and cleaning and sex” are often very similar.  Expectations and reality don’t always run hand in hand.  When looking at rookies, you should expect nothing.  Actually, expect to drop them by May.  With that said, Brian Matusz has electric stuff and deserves his own post.  So what can we expect of Brian Matusz for 2010 fantasy baseball?

In NCAA play, Matusz flat-out dominated with an 88-92 MPH fastball and two plus off-speed pitches.  In the minors, it was more of the same — 113 IP, 1.91 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 121 Ks.  He gets the short end of the stick when people speak of the Double Stuff Orioles (Chris Tillman and Matusz).  Truthfully, I would’ve done a rookie post on Tillman first too, if he were still a rookie.  And if you’re rooting for Matusz over Tillman, you might secretly be a Mariners fan.  Matusz doesn’t project to be the ace that Tillman does, but he can be a solid number two.  Definitely will be exciting when he does reach his ceiling.  For 2010 fantasy baseball, I’d broach Matusz with caution.  Think a very up and down 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 145 Ks in 150 innings. Ownable, but at times you’ll need some Milk of Magnesia.

Check out the catcher pool as it deepens.  First, Wieters.  Then Jesus Montero (I don’t plan on covering him.  The Yankees are not the type of organization to turn over catching duties to a rookie enough to make an impact out of the starting gates in 2010.), Carlos Santana and Buster Posey.  What’s next, a fourth Molina brother, W. Somerset Molina?  A club-footed, orphan brought up by his uncle who becomes a self-hating catcher who regularly distracts hitters with talk of his unrequited love for a diner waitress.  Or not.  These are things for you to decide.  Here’s what I said about Buster Posey back in September, “Sabean’s already said Fat Molina is on his way out of The Bay after this season.  Buster Posey should get every opportunity to win the job in spring training of 2010.  I wouldn’t expect anything, but he’s capable of 14 homers and a .300 average if he gets the job from jump street.  In the non-perverse way, I’ll touch on him many more times during the offseason.”  Guess it’s time to touch on him.  Gross!  So can Posey help you in 2010 fantasy baseball leagues?

Are you wearing your aluminum foil hat for better TV reception?  Yes, he can help you.  That’s what I’m saying.  Flip off your lid for a second, would ya?  As I said with other fantasy baseball rookie catcher posts, Posey is not as exciting at any other position in 2010, but he’s a catcher so yay.  He’s exactly the kind of guy you should take a flier on late for your catcher spot in 12 team leagues and deeper.  Let’s just hope he doesn’t get as hyped in the preseason as Wieters did in 2009.  If you have to draft Posey too high, he’s going to lose all value.  In 2010, I’d put Posey’s projections at 55/14/65/.290/3.  Of course, if Posey doesn’t make the club out of Spring Training for some crazy, unforeseen reason, then you don’t draft him.  Cool?  Cool.

I know what you were thinking when you saw the name Logan Morrison.  Whatever happened to Nook Logan?  Glad you asked.  After he was named in the Mitchell Report under the sub-section, “Steroids Don’t Always Work,” he opened the “Change The Game Athletic Performance Enhancement, Motivational Speaking & Consulting.” (Center? Symposium? Corner store?  C’mon, Nook, you need a place to do the game changing blah blah blah’ing.) With the help of other former athletes you’ve probably never heard of, they teach the lessons they learned.  I’m assuming the first lesson is the “Do the Opposite of Whatever I Did” lesson.  (In all seriousness, can we get a kitty together for a half hour of Nook Logan, the motivational speaker?)  Now that we’ve cleared your cobwebs on Nook, let’s move onto Logan Morrison.  Member when I dropped some crazy science in your beaker about Mike Stanton fantasy aspirations?  Well, here goes another one.  So can Logan Morrison help you in 2010 fantasy baseball?

Maybe, but not at first is my short answer.  Along with Mike Stanton’s mom, I like Mike Stanton better.  Morrison did work in A and High A in 2007 and ‘08, respectively.  Only pseudo-red flag was his homers dropped a bit from ‘07 to ‘08, but his doubles almost, you guessed it, doubled.  Resulting in him winning MVP honors.  In 2009, a fracture in his wrist knocked him out for about 2 months.  He still managed an OBP of .411, and five homers in the month of July, which is a nice sign the wrist injury isn’t lingering.  Morrison is still only 22 so the Marlins will probably hold off on bringing up, but if they do (remember, like that pony-tailed guy standing in front of your student union, the Marlins promote aggressively), then he will definitely be someone to look at.  Though all I expect in 2010 is 30/7/45/.265/3 and a mid-season call up.  Not worth it in mixed leagues, but definitely someone to look at in NL-Only and keeper leagues.

I had a whole lot to say about Ian Desmond when he was first called up.  I rambled for a few sentences about Bowden on a Segway and how old youngster, Esmailyn Gonzalez really is.  He’s a Latin 20-something.  He’s also known as Carlos Lugo now.  This is brilliant.  How cool would it be if at least once a year a retired player tried to make a comeback under an alias?  Have you seen this new Dominican prospect for the Braves? His name is Julio Phranco.  He looks vaguely familiar. Last September, I said in my never duplicated, always imitated way, “Desmond has a decent blend of speed and power (think The Big FraGu at shortstop).  The “at shortstop” thing is the clincher.” It’s all about the clincher, ain’t it?  So what can Ian Desmond do for 2010 fantasy baseball is he, dare I say, a sleeper?

Since we’re friends, I’m going to tell you that I’m on the fence with how much I want to push Ian Desmond on you, loyal Razzball reader. On one hand, he can be FraGuish.  On the other hand, how much ‘ish is he?  Is he 97% FraGuish?  Is he 55% FraGuish?  So much anGuish!  Then when I look at the numbers a different way, I think he might be more FeLopezian.  So let’s see what we know.  His stealing percentages in the minors were dreadful at times.  In Double-A in 2008, he stole 12 bases and was caught 8 times.  In 2009, 13 for 17 in Double-A then 8 for 9 in Triple-A.  When he reached the Nats, he stole one base in 21 games and the Nats don’t steal that much. So I think Desmond has 25-plus steal speed, but may only steal 15 bases.  Now for the power.  In his first major league game, he hit a 434 foot bomb. Though its true distance is less. (Still not clear on what true distance is.  I like to think it’s measured in unicorns because that would ironic.  BTW, if you wanna lose three hours of your life, play around with this site.) So Desmond can generate power, but he’s not a really a power hitter.  Ten homers seems like a lot to ask of him, but he could get to 15.  Hmm… That brings me back to FraGuish.  So I guess we’ll settle on 10/20 for Desmond with the hope of more and the fear of less.  Though, because the shortstop position is so shallow, 10/20 is a great sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball and definitely someone to look at late in drafts.

Excitement froth from my mouth last year when I wrote, “Jason Heyward, besides having the surname of a 1930s matinee idol, has the mitts of a Yeti and the sturdies (<– that’s legs) of Frank Thomas.  His man gams are 117% oak.  Heyward just saved your life and you didn’t even know you were in danger.  Look over your left shoulder — quickly!  See that shadow shrinking out of the room?  That was Heyward.  He’s now going to Ireland to sing harmony with that Once guy.  So being a globetrotting, harmonizing, crime fighting love child of a Yeti and Frank Thomas is all well-and-good, but can the the Braves outfield prospect, Jason Heyward, help you in fantasy baseball leagues in 2009? Nope…. He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.”  So, see it frotheth over for 2010.  If you build the hype, they will come… eventually. (Also, Stephen went over his A ball stats in a July Scouting the Unknown.)  So, do I still think Jason Heyward can be someone we can look at for 2010 fantasy baseball leagues?

Um, yeah.  Ain’t that what I’ve been saying?  Since that Scouting the Unknown, Heyward moved up the Braves minor league ranks.  Hitting at a .352/.446/.611 clip at Double-A in 47 games, then .364/.462/.364 in only three games at Triple-A.  Sample size be damned!  Heyward can hit with power and has speed.  He had a leg injury in the AFL, but it shouldn’t hinder him for 2010.  He’ll be a first rounder in fantasy at some point in the near future.  My guess would be 2012 (assuming the Mayans are wrong).  Barring any trades this offseason for outfield pieces, the Braves could use Heyward immediately.  Okay, I’ll rephrase.  The Braves could use a productive Heyward.  As Schafer proved last April, the Braves will give a chance to a rookie, but he must produce.  I could see Heyward staying in the minors until June or breaking camp with the team.  If Heyward comes out of the gate galloping his pony sticks and mollywhopping with his man hands, he could give you a very cheap 12/20 season.  I like him late in mixed leagues if he has a starting gig out of Spring Training.  In keepers, he’s a must have and I could see drafting him in one year NL-Only leagues even if he starts the year in the minors.  I.e. My love is still strong on Jason Heyward for 2010 fantasy baseball.