Fantasy Baseball Advice

Carlos Santana is getting a 2010 fantasy baseball rookie post because I know people will ask about him.  See, I’m psychic.  BTW, I wouldn’t bring in the mail today.  Just a bunch of bills and a 20% off coupon for Bed, Bath and Beyond.  Carlos Santana is the catcher prospect the Dodgers traded to the Indians for Casey Blake.  TMZ reported Jamie McCourt did the aforementioned trade because Carlos Santana looks eerily similar to Edward James Olmos, who was Frank McCourt’s reason for watching “every single, goddamn Miami Vice rerun.”  Only later did Mrs. McCourt find out that that was the wrong Carlos Santana.  At 23, Carlos Santana just finished up his best season in the minor leagues slashing .290/.413/.530 at Double-A.  Showing solid plate discipline, he walked more times than he struckout.  He knocked in 97 RBIs and hit 23 homers in 130 games and was named the 2009 Eastern League Most Valuable Player Award after winning the 2008 California League MVP.  (Scouting the Unknown went over Carlos Santana’s minor league numbers in further detail.)  So can Carlos Santana help you in 2010 fantasy baseball?

There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana.  His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs.  I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest.  If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper.  But really that’s only true because of his position.  If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats.  Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible.  (Sidenote:  As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold.  Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived.  He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats.  Now that seems implausible.)  If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones.  In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up.  If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year.  Game, set, natch.

Seattle Mariners 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.

Last year, Brandon Allen treaded his six-two, two-hundred and thirty-five pound man-gams through Double- and Triple-A before hitting the majors in August.  And by hitting the majors, I don’t mean hitting in the majors.  As Lil Jon once said in grade school, I come correct with my prepositions, okaaaay!!!!!  In the minors in 2009, Allen slashed .298/.373/.503 with 20 homers, cutting his strikeout rate for the 2nd year in a row.  However, that didn’t carry over to the majors, whiffing 40 times in 104 at-bats.  Though, that was a small sample size… that’s what she said! (Stephen broke him down further in his Diamondbacks Prospect Review.)  For Brandon Allen to make an impact in 2010 fantasy baseball, he needs a spot to play.  Oh well, right?  Not so fast, Alex P. Keaton on speed.

What do Chad Tracy, Tony Clark, Conor Jackson, Josh Whitesell, Rusty Ryal and Chris Snyder have in common?  They suck.  They also played 1st base for the Diamondbacks at some point in 2009.  (Mark Reynolds played 28 games at 1st too, but I have it on good authority he wants to play 3rd… Actually, I don’t have it on any authority.  I’m educated-guessing here.  The Diamondbacks would be better with Reynolds at 3rd and Allen at 1st.)  So over the top rope comes the big-boned Brandon Allen.  He should get an ample opportunity in Spring Training to win the job.  If he can break camp with the Diamondbacks, he’ll be a solid sleeper for power in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper at a corner infidel spot.  In NL-Only leagues, he’ll be draftable as a sleeper 1st baseman.  He should provide power, if nothing else.  You’re looking at a 20 homer hitter with a chance for a bit more.  He’ll probably hurt you on average, but what else is new from a Diamondhack hitter?  Windmills were once used for pumping water through primitive irrigation systems.  Maybe the swings and misses are how the Diamondbacks keep the hot tub bubbling in the right field stands at Chase Field.

Last year, Desmond Jennings won the Rays Minor League Player of the Year honors.  In Double and Triple-A in 2009, Desmond Jennings had a slash line of .305/.391/.457 while chucking in 11 homers.  You might be thinking it was a slow year in the Rays organization.  Yeah, the opposite is true here, friend.  Jennings stole 52 bases.  (His minor league ups and downs were broken down further in a Scouting the Unknown in June.)  To recap, 11 homers and 52 steals.  HAVE MY CHILDREN!  Whoa, Mr. Caps Lock, get excited much?  YES!  Who are you, Desmond Jennings?  Carl Crawford?  They are both 6 ‘2″.  They both play center field.  Both have teen power and 50 steal base potential.  Yes, I have thousands of pictures of Jennings ready to go up on my bedroom walls.  So Jennings is a slam dunk for 2010 fantasy baseball, right?

The similarities are both his pluses and minuses.  If Crawford is in left field and Upton is in center, does Jennings play short center?   Few things can happen, Crawford gets moved so Jennings can do exactly the same thing in his stead.  Jennings gets held back in the minors because there’s no room right now for him.  Or the Rays go with the All-Drool outfield of Upton, Crawford and Jennings; I’m sure this is the option Rays pitchers want.  Now things don’t always work out, remember I was caca-cuckoo for Cameron Maybin in the preseason last year.  If Jennings gets the call to start in the beginning of the year, I’d own him in ten team mixed leagues.  Shoot, I’m ready to take him in NL-Only leagues for s’s and g’s.  If he gets the every day job, this won’t be the last you’ve heard of him.  He’s exactly the kind of rookie that can have an immediate impact for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Quick, somebody make Crawford glue, I have pictures to paste!

First, I looked for anecdotal evidence on Mr. Stanton.  I found in 2007 the Red Sox offered to trade Manny to the Marlins, while paying his salary, for Mike Stanton.  The Marlins obviously refused.  Interesting, but the last time Marlins traded a prospect for a big name was exactly never.  Still, the Marlins (along with others) saw something in the then 17-year-old.  At 18, Stanton didn’t disappoint.  In Single-A, he hit 39 homers while slashing .293/.381/.611.  There’s light tower power in his man-frame of 6′5″, 210 lbs. (for those in San Diego, that’s 3 and a half David Ecksteins, but only three-quarters of a Kyle Blanks.  Or Blanks sans afro.).  Last year, Stanton continued his assault on minor league pitching in High-A, then hit his first roadblock at Double-A.  Unable to make the necessary adjustments, he saw the one part of his game that was exploitable exploited.  He’s a hacker.  Even when he hit the 39 homers in 125 games in A, he struck out 153 times.  Last year, he K’d 99 times in 79 Double-A games, which led to .231/.311/.455.  By far his worst showing in his young career.  (Scouting the Unknown took a further look at Mike Stanton’s minor league numbers in July.)  He’s still very young and he was killing it (<–courtesy of T.J. Lavin) in the Arizona Fall League.  Leading the league with a .478 average through 6 games, when he was shut down with a sore back.  Supposedly, it was just precautionary and he’ll be fine for Spring Training.  So what can we expect of Mike Stanton for 2010 fantasy baseball?

I expect him to be given a chance in Spring Training to show off his ginourmous power, but be sent to Double-A to start the season.  If he can make the necessary adjustments, we can see him around mid-season.  For all their frugality, the Marlins aggressively promote/play their prospects (then trade them when they hit arbitration. Lates, Uggla.).  He’ll only be 20 in 2010 and still might be a full year away from contributing in fantasy.  I wouldn’t touch Stanton in one year leagues until he is definitely playing on the Marlins.  In deep NL-Only and keeper leagues, he should be owned coming out of your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.