1. Evan Longoria – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Longoria’s projections.

2. David Wright – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Wright’s projections.

3. Ryan Zimmerman – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Zimmerman’s projections.

4. Alex Rodriguez – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is A-Rod’s projections.

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball for Youkilis’s projections.  (Note:  He might not have 3rd base eligibility when the season starts, but he’ll get it soon enough.)

6. Mark Reynolds – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Casey McGehee.  I call this tier, “Where the hell are all the top 3rd basemen?”  If someone sees the top 20 3rd basemen, send them in my direction.  I went over the Reynolds fantasy move to The Big ‘More.  The gist of that post is he won’t be as bad as he was in 2010 or as good in 2009.  You go read it yourself, I only counted three tipos.  2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12

7. Adrian Beltre – I went over my Beltre fantasy when he moved to the Lone Star state.  To be completely honest with you, before he signed with the Rangers, he was in the tier of players I’m avoiding.  His move bumped him up to a more attractive tier.  I’m sure his mother is proud.  2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

8. Michael Young – I’m worried that the bottom on Young’s power is going to drop out.  His HR/FB% last year came down from its high of 2009, but it can still come down further.  Then you throw in a guy who’s aging and still refuses to take a walk.  I think his career decline is going to come fast and hard.  Like a 14 homer, 3 steal season is around the corner.  2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5

9. Casey McGehee – He’s more or less Pablo Sandoval with a bit more power and less average.  And that is the first time anyone’s ever been more Pablo Sandoval.  Usually they’re less.  Personally, I want power over average so I’d lean towards McGehee.  Plus, his average shouldn’t be terrible without some bad luck.  2011 Projections:  75/24/90/.280

10. Pedro Alvarez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Aramis.  I call this tier, “I’m going all in on one of these guys if I don’t get an elite 3rd baseman because shizz gets drastic after these two.”  I already went over my Pedro Alvarez fantasy.  If I miss out on the top 3rd basemen, Alvarez is the guy I want in every league.  He is Julio Upsidiero for 2011.  He needs a fantasy sleeper post to really beat into your heads how much you need him.  (Yes, I’ve even thought about how scary it’s going to be being pot-committed to watching the Pirates.)  2011 Projections:  70/27/85/.260/3

11. Aramis Ramirez – I only like Aramis because I’m all out of Drakkar.  See what I did there?!  It’s cologne humor!  I like Aramis this year because he seems to be going pretty cheaply in drafts.  Is he suddenly going to hit 35+ homers again?  Sure, and just because you replaced your Mom’s name on your cellphone with Natalie Portman it means it’s the star of Black Swan calling you three times a day.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280

12. Jose Bautista – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Sandoval.  I call this tier, “No, thanks.”  Anyone who is drafting Bautista is out of their flippin’ mind.  There, I said it.  I don’t even know how anyone’s drafting a guy who went from 13 homers in 113 games in 2009 to 54 homers in 161 games.  Doesn’t that just ring a bit weird for you drafters of Bautista?   His HR/FB% for his career is 13.8%.  Last year, it was 21.7%.  That’s absurd.  If you remove his best average month of July, he hit .242 in 471 other at-bats.  That was in his best season!  There’s still no warning signs?  How about the fact that once pitchers realized he was using a corked bat with Sammy Sosa’s signature on it, he hit .224 in September and October?  Still not enough?  Eh, go back and stick your head in the sand.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5

13. Pablo Sandoval – You know who Pablo Sandoval looks like?  No, not Rerun.  He looks like a young Lyle Overbay.  I obviously mean, his stats look like a young Overbay.  High teen power, good average.  It’s a’ight, I suppose, but if he struggles out of the gate the Giants won’t extend his leash anywhere near how long they did last year.  2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3

14. Placido Polanco – This tier goes from here until Rolen.  I call this tier, “There are so many more 3rd basemen that I don’t want compared to ones that I do want.” Went over Polanco’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

15. Chase Headley – I actually recommended him last year.  Well, they’re not all world wide web gems.  I obviously forgot he plays his home games at Petco.  In 295 ABs at home, 3 homers and a .237 average.  Last year Luis Polonia hit better in the Sexual Predator League at Rikers.  2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7

16. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

17. Scott Rolen – Post-All-Star break he had 188 ABs and 3 homers.  That’s someone you should draft.  Maybe you can platoon him in and out with Troy Glaus.  2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275

18. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “You have nothing here but upside. Meaning:  you may get nothing.”  I know, Ian Stewart buckled under the pressure of being nicknamed, Mini Mini Donkey.  It was a lot of brays to live up to.  So why do I still believe in him?  Because he really didn’t buckle under the pressure, he just didn’t get enough ABs.  With an everyday job, he’s a 25-30 homer, 5 steals and a .260ish average.  Of course, you might end up drafting Nadir Bupkis if Wigginton steals a lot of playing time from him.  Stewart will definitely see his share of the bench vs. lefties.  In this bear market of third basemen, it’s worth the flier on Stewart in the endgame.  2011 Projections:  65/22/75/.260/5

19. Chris Johnson – Is it bad when two of the bigger upside picks come from the Pirates and Astros?  Yes, yes it is.  Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.  2011 Projections:  65/20/80/.260/3 (<–optimistic but whatevs)

20. Danny Valencia – I see your upside, Danny Valencia, and I’m not that impressed.  Listen, you’re real deep into a position by this point.  If you draft Valencia, there’s a good chance you’re going to drop him by April 10th for a guy who starts out hot.  If Valencia starts off hot, then maybe you can flip him for a better piece.  If this doesn’t sound like the greatest upside pick in the world, it probably isn’t.  Best case scenario, he hits 17 homers with a good average.  It’s a’ight.  2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.300

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but here’s two that stand out:

Mike Moustakas – I already went over my Moustakas fantasy.  It involves some PG-13 nudity.  2011 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

David Freese – I’d actually rank Freese above Chris Johnson overall if he’s healthy.  I only slotted him down here to highlight him.  If he shows up to camp healthy, he could surprise with some power.  In 464 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, he hit 26 homers.  In 2009, he hit a homer every 20 at-bats.  He’s probably not going to blow your mind with his stats, but he’s being drafted crazy late, if at all, and could surprise.  2011 Projections:  70/20/80/.300/3

1. Billy Wagner – There’s a theme in the top 20 closers we need to address.  Where I ranked them (or didn’t rank them at all) compared to where they ended up is all over the place.  Now you can either think I’m a jerkoff or you can realize how unpredictable closers are.  This is why you never pay for closers.  The ones that you think will do good end up disappointing (Broxton) or flat-out suck (Frank Francisco).  Then there’s the ones that just come out of nowhere.  It all comes back to SAGNOF!  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves, Final Numbers: 7-2/1.43/0.87/104, 34 saves

2. Rafael Soriano – Never doubted Soriano’s ability… Well, I doubted his ability to stay healthy.  This year is Soriano staying healthy.  Maybe it was Soriano pitching more to contact this year that helped.  He definitely didn’t put up his best K season, but it was easily his best save season.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/1.73/0.80/57, 45 saves

3. Heath Bell – Wavy lines appear and we’re back in the 2010 preseason.  You, “I’m not touching Bell, he’s getting traded.”  Me, “Don’t worry about trade rumors in March.  Lots of hoops to jump though before a trade happens and maybe he’s the closer on the new team if he is traded.”  You, “Hoopz is spelled with a Z, I saw it on Flavor of Love.  Now shut your mustache!”  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  6-1/1.93/1.20/86, 47 saves

4. Brian Wilson – This year he was The Machine.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.81/1.18/93, 48 saves

5. Neftali Feliz – He was ranked last January… For starters.  Since this is really just about me, Feliz hurt me more than any other closer because I A) Owned Frank² in many leagues. B) Didn’t own Feliz.  C) Aren’t the first two enough hurt for one man?  Preseason Unranked for Closers, Final Numbers: 4-3/2.73/0.88/71, 40 saves

6. Joakim Soria – Here’s one of those places where ESPN is giving too much weight to wins.  Soria is being docked for only one win, but you don’t own closers for wins.  Are the vulture wins nice?  Sure, and so is an extra scoop in your Fribble™, but you don’t need it, you glutton.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves, Final Numbers: 1-2/1.78/1.05/71, 41 saves

7. Carlos Marmol – In the comments on the preseason rankings for closers, there were variations of the same comment.  “You’re being silly with your Marmol projections and where you’re ranking him.  He’s too wild.”  Looking at my preseason projections compared to his final stats, I wasn’t being silly enough.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.55/1.18/138, 38 saves

8. Matt Capps – Capps really should’ve won the Razzballie for top SAGNOF closer.  He wasn’t the best closer (obviously).  He wasn’t as cheap as Feliz, but, I’d contend that once Feliz got the job people respected what he could do.  No one really wanted the Nats closer in the preseason and assumed during the season that Storen would take over at any moment.  Then Capps ran with the job and the Twins job too.  Preseason Rank #21, Final Numbers:  5-3/2.47/1.26/59, 42 saves

9. Mariano Rivera – The ratios look fine, but this is the beginning of the end for Rivera.  He had the most blown saves in 7 years, he had by his worst K-rate in four years and he’s turning 41 in November.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.80/0.83/45, 33 saves

10. John Axford – After Feliz, Axford was the best pickup for relievers.  The crazy thing is he was probably available to everyone for longer than most because no one expected him to replace Hoffman for as long as he did and, even as his reign seemed to be going well, people were still concerned Hoffman would return to the role.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  8-2/2.48/1.19/76, 24 saves

11. Jonathan Papelbon – For the first time in his career, his dancing wasn’t the ugliest part of his game.  He gave up more than twice the amount of runs from 2008 to 2009.  The most homers and walks allowed of his career.  And his 2nd lowest save total.  It couldn’t happen to a douchier seeming guy.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  5-7/3.90/1.27/76, 37 saves

12. Hong-Chih Kuo – Kinda unfair ranking him this high because, outside of deep leagues, you probably didn’t own him for most of these stats even if you did own him.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-2/1.20/0.78/73, 12 saves

13. Francisco Cordero – He seems like one of the few relievers who blows saves and doesn’t look pretty even when he converts but there’s never any talk about him losing his job.  That’s Dusty ball!  Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections:  3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  6-5/3.84/1.43/59, 40 saves

14. Ryan Franklin – Another one of those ESPN glitches.  Franklin was fine last year, but his six wins are artificially boosting his value.  For instance, Aardsma was just as good with more saves, but had an 0-6 record.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-2/3.46/1.03/42, 27 saves

15. Chris Perez - Again, there’s probably a good chance you didn’t own him for this whole season’s stats.  If you did, well played.  If you didn’t and are saying you did, why lie?  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 2-2/1.71/1.08/61, 23 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – In 2009, the Mets had an incident when a shirtless VP, Tony Bernazard, challenged players to a fight.  In 2010, K-Rod made every Thanksgiving very awkward for as long as he’s married to his wife.  My prediction for 2011 is Mr. Met gets a DUI.  He just looks like a rummy.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.20/1.15/67, 25 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, I have Bailey ranked lower than most other ‘perts.”  I also ranked him 17th and that’s where he ended up.  Natch that!  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections:  2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves, Final Numbers:  1-3/1.47/0.96/42, 25 saves

18. Leo Nunez – Ranked here and he barely got into September with the closing job.  Remember, into the month of August, he had an ERA of 2.64.  He’ll be one of my favorite closer sleepers next year, assuming he’s the closer next year, which I think he will be, and, yes, this sentence ran away from me and I just started throwing in commas, but whatevs.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/3.46/1.28/71, 30 saves

19. Kevin Gregg – Anyone think Gregg will get any kind of respect next year in drafts?  Yeah, me neither.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-6/3.51/1.39/58, 37 saves

20. Jose Valverde – Had a perfectly respectable season that was only hurt because the Tigers either won by more than 4 runs or lost.  Don’t hate the player, hate the unpredictability of the save stat.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves, Final Numbers: 2-4/3.00/1.16/63, 26 saves

21. Tim Lincecum – I told you he’d be ranked number one overall!  Only hadn’t anticipated the ’2′ in front of the ’1.’  As my Polish neighbor likes to say, “What can do?” Linecum was still putting the K in kd lang, but his WHIP was a flippin’ mess.  Freak out.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.43/1.27/231

22. Jonathan Sanchez – If you didn’t know I loved me some Filthy Sanchez going into 2010, you weren’t reading the site.  Preseason Rank #82, 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.07/1.23/205

23. Brett Myers – Member how I talked about foreseeing the top 20 starters pretty clearly?  Well, you don’t have to remember.  Take my word for it.  The top 40?  Not so much.  And if you think it was just me who didn’t see these starters performing as well as they did, think about how many of these guys were on your waivers at one time or another.  R.A. Dickey, for one, was owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues the entire year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.14/1.24/180

24. Johan Santana – I thought I sorted wrong when I saw Johan ranked this high.  He didn’t seem like a top 25 pitcher to me last year.  His K-rate dropped below 7 for the first time in his career and his ERA shows that he was very lucky to only give up as many runs that he did.  Then to put a vomit-flavored cherry on the sundae, his season ended with shoulder surgery.  The days of “Should I draft Johan with my 2nd pick?” are long behind us.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200, Final Numbers:  11-9/2.98/1.18/144

25. C.J. Wilson – Had one of the more improbable seasons… If you’ve forgotten what Dempster did going from an okay reliever to a starter.  Someone needs to start the ‘Pat Neshek For Starter’ campaign.  Wilson’s IP jumped from 70+ to 200+, he gave up more than 4 walks per 9 IP and he threw his home starts in Arlington.  Maybe he stole Scott Feldman’s mojo.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.35/1.25/170

26. Ted Lilly – He was out with the an injured shoulder the first month of the season so I got cold feet.  Well, someone should’ve told me to wear my footy pajamas!  *burp*  Excuse me.  So Lilly’s proven for 3 straight seasons he’s about as reliable as they come.  Not exciting.  Reliable.  Preseason Rank #77, 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100, Final Numbers:  10-12/3.62/1.08/166

27. Shaun Marcum – Returned from Tommy John surgery and showed Chastity Bono how to make post-op look good.  Usually when TJ survivors return they’re shook ones with little control.  Marcum only threw 43 BBs vs. 165 Ks.  As they say in Spanish Harlem, that’s muy bueno, papi.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/3.64/1.15/165

28. Tommy Hanson – C.J. Wilson, Dickey, Myers, etc. etc. etc. were great last year, doesn’t mean I’m going to love them going forward.  Every year there’s 20 or so starters that overperform.  Last year Feldman, Buehrle, Happ showed up in the top 40.  Didn’t make me shove them up the rankings for the following year.  I bring this up now because Hanson is a guy that should take a step forward next year.  Preseason Rank #29, 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers:  10-11/3.33/1.17/173

29. Colby Lewis – The low din of hype that followed Lewis back from The Land of the Rising Sun was on point.  His Ks were there and his walks weren’t terrible.  On a team that won 90 games, his under .500 record is puzzling and makes me think he might not be too overrated next year, especially since no one watched the postseason.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-13/3.72/1.19/196

30. Bronson Arroyo – I was one of the biggest proponents of trading for Arroyo around the All-Star break when he starts getting in his groove, but let’s be honest.  He’s ranked this high because of his Wins.  He gets 13 Wins instead of 17 and he’s nowhere on this list.  Preseason Rank #72, 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.88/1.15/121

31. Hiroki Kuroda – This guy seems to be perennially underrated.  I might have to shove a sleeper post down… Actually, Kuroda’s just so boring I can’t write a sleeper post about him, can I?  Preseason Rank #70, 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100, Final Numbers:  11-13/3.39/1.16/159

32. Francisco Liriano – I didn’t rank Liriano but I did give him his own sleeper post.  Sounds a bit like crazy talk from a man who wears a potato sack and sings religious songs in Latin, but 2009 wasn’t kind to Liriano and it wasn’t until he rediscovered his velocity in winter ball did he get back on the fantasy map.  The final numbers are actually a bit sadder than the reality.  He was in the Cy Young race until his final few starts.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.62/1.26/201

33. John Danks – I’m going to admit to being completely perplexed by Floyd and Danks.  One year one does seemingly better and one does seemingly worse according to their ERAs and FIPs.  Next year, that reverses.  Then reverses again.  Now I know why Ozzie’s crazy.  Preseason Rank #64, 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155, Final Numbers:  15-11/3.72/1.22/162

34. Gio Gonzalez – The 2.56 ERA in Alameda makes him look like a straight homeschooler.  I’m not sure I disagree either.  His BBs are ugly, but he did lower them nearly a full one per nine.  He left a bunch of men on, which helped hide how detrimental the walks could’ve been.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-9/3.23/1.31/171

35. Carl Pavano – Here’s another guy that probably won’t be draftable next year, but turned in a good season thanks to Wins.  If you think he had a good season outside of Wins, look at his 117 Ks in 221 IP.  That’s pretty unmanly.  And that hurts me to say because we are brothers in ‘stache.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-11/3.75/1.19/117

36. Max Scherzer – The train completely derailed in the month of May, where he posted a 9.45 ERA.  Then he was reborn in the holy Toledo water and returned to post a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break.  It was a reminder that he was once referred to by the name Jobacum because of his similarity to Joba and Lincecum, and that was when that was a big compliment.  Preseason Rank #31, 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.50/1.25/184

37. R.A. Dickey – The valuable lesson to take away from this top 40 is — you could’ve drafted Beckett, Baker and Lackey as your first three starters and there’s still plenty of pitchers to grab to replace them.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-9/2.84/1.19/104

38. Ryan Dempster – Wow, 208 Ks from Dempster.  Wow.  Due to getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a 32.2% rate, he recorded his highest K-rate of his career at the age of 33.  The way he’s going, by the time he’s forty he’s going to win a Cy Young.  Preseason Rank #27, 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.85/1.32/208

39. Dan Haren – Overall, disappointing year for a top 10 pitcher going into the preseason, but it could’ve been much worse.  A notorious 1st half pitcher coupled with the switch of leagues sounds like a guy that got pulverized in the 2nd half.  Yeah, didn’t work out that way.  1st half ERA was 4.36.  2nd half was 3.34.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200, Final Numbers:  12-12/3.91/1.27/216

40. Jaime Garcia – He went slightly over the amount of innings he should’ve thrown.  Like, oh, 125 2/3 IP too many.  I doubt La Russa would abuse a squirrel’s arm that egregiously.  Without knowing any advanced metrics or having a big brain like Brad, it’s pretty obvious from Garcia’s WHIP that he left a shizzload* of runners on base.  (*A shizzload is smaller than a crapton, but still larger than a shizzton.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/2.70/1.32/132

1. Roy Halladay – Now I’m either a freakin’ genius or I’m lucky as a leprechaun standing under a pigeon who just ate Mexican food.  I’d like to think it’s the former.  There’s only one surprising name in this group of 20 starters, who I’ll get to in a bit.  Did I rank all of these guys exactly as they ended up?  No, I’m not Ms. Cleo.  But if you would’ve asked me if I you should draft 18 of 20 of these starters, I would’ve said sure.  Carpenter I wasn’t a fan of, but he’s not completely surprising.  It’s no wonder that in all of my leagues, my pitching was beyond respectable (except for wins).  Continued in Wainwright’s blurb.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185, Final Numbers:  21-10/2.44/1.04/219

2. Adam Wainwright – I never drafted a pitcher before the 3rd round and, if I did draft one there, I’d lay off starters for 4 to 5 rounds.  It wasn’t like I sat there and drafted Johan, Greinke and F-Her.  If I did, I would’ve been screwed.  I’d grab F-Her then much later Baby Weaver then later Oswalt then Jonathan Sanchez.  If you don’t think that’s a solid top 4 in a league with 12 or more teams, you need to lay off the glue sniffing.  Continued in F-Her’s blurb.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections: 16-8/3.30/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.42/1.05/213

3. Felix Hernandez – The projections might not be exactly on for these starters, but 18 of the 20 starters here all fell in a preseason grouping of starters that I was excited about drafting.  As for Felix… Sure, F-Her blew when it came to wins, but you can’t fault him for that.  Well, I mean, you can, but then you’d be Joe Morgan.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections: 18-6/3.00/1.10/220, Final Numbers:  13-12/2.27/1.06/232

4. Ubaldo Jimenez – Here’s what I said in the preseason, “Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Though the 2nd half for Ubaldo was a worry with a 4.15 ERA.  Though II, The Return of Though, the first half was insane.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.27/200, Final Numbers:  19-8/2.88/1.15/214

5. Roy Oswalt – I realize he was on the Astros for half the year, so there’s goes those wins, but what explains his only 7 wins on the best NL team in the 2nd half?  I asked it, so I’ll answer it.  My win karma is why.  Sorry, Oswalt and all Oswalt owners.  I’m currently meditating 3 hours a day in hopes of turning around my bad win karma.  Preseason Rank #28, 2010 Projections: 12-6/3.65/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  13-13/2.76/1.03/193

6. Jered Weaver – “Okay, but is Weaver really this good?”  That’s you.  Here’s me, “He led the major leagues in strikeouts.”  Unlike Wins, you don’t back into that.  I already touched a bit on my 2011 Jered Weaver fantasy.  Preseason Rank #24, 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.22/180, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.01/1.07/233

7. CC Sabathia – He had his worst WHIP in 5 years.  His worst K-rate in 5 years.  His worst walk rate in 5 years.  His luckiest with men left on base in his career.  Paradoxically, his ground ball rate went up.  You may be looking at the beginning of the end for Prince Fielder’s stunt double.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections: 20-10/3.45/1.17/200, Final Numbers:  21-7/3.18/1.19/197

8. David Price – In honor of December Grey, here’s his David Price sleeper post from last year.  The Price was right, snitches!  Preseason Rank #26, 2010 Projections: 12-9/3.75/1.30/155, Final Numbers:  19-6/2.72/1.19/188

9. Cliff Lee – PETA would’ve appreciated The Adverb’s season because there was hardly any balls.  In all seriousness, spay and neuter your adverbs.  Preseason Rank #13, 2010 Projections: 15-8/3.40/1.22/160, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.18/1.00/185

10. Justin Verlander – Technically, not a bad season from Verlander, but why does it feel like I was annoyed every time he was starting a game?  Oh, I know.  His BAA vs. the 1st hitter was .291, which is 25 points worse than any other hitter.  Verlander was also terrible in the first inning and in April (5.53 ERA).  Idea bulb!  Bring Valverde in for the first inning then let Verlander close out the final 8.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections: 17-11/3.25/1.20/230, Final Numbers:  18-9/3.37/1.16/219

11. Jon Lester – If you throw out the final start of the year, Lester’s ERA was below 3.  If you throw out 2 wins, 2 losses, 10 Ks and add an extra 3 earned runs, my projections were right on.  If you throw out the year 2000, my stock portfolio would still be worth something.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections: 17-7/3.35/1.20/215, Final Numbers:  19-9/3.25/1.20/225

12. Josh Johnson – He’s like a rich man’s Erich Bedarden.  I guess it could be worse.  He could’ve pitched more than one start in September and had the results of Latos.  Speaking of which… Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.35/1.22/175, Final Numbers:  11-6/2.30/1.11/186

13. Mat Latos – Had four straight months of an ERA below 2.38.  In September, his ERA was 6.21.  I’m pretty bummed that the Padres pitched him so many innings and now it’s going to be hard to own him next year.  Oh, well.  I’ll see you in 2012, Latos.  Preseason Rank #68, 2010 Projections: 6-7/4.15/1.32/125, Final Numbers:  14-10/2.92/1.08/189

14. Tim Hudson – There were about three months in the season where I kept saying Hudson was getting lucky and his ERA would raise.  Didn’t really work out that way.  I did like Hudson in the preseason, so I didn’t count him in the 2 starters from this list I wouldn’t have owned.  I would’ve probably sold him some time in July though.  Preseason Rank #59, 2010 Projections: 13-5/3.55/1.32/145, Final Numbers:  17-9/2.83/1.15/139

15. Matt Cain – Cain continued his bafflement of the Fangraphs Database.  As I said towards the end of the season, I’m done saying Cain’s getting lucky.  He is, but I’m done saying.  Okay, I’m not done saying it, but I am.  If you catch my drift…  He was lucky!  Preseason Rank #32, 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.25/165, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.14/1.08/177

16. Clayton Kershaw – If Dodgers won 90 games and Kershaw won 20 games, he’s in the Cy Young conversation.  I’m not saying this to defend my preseason Cy Young selection of Kershaw, but I am, so there.  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections: 12-4/3.20/1.22/200, Final Numbers:  13-10/2.91/1.18/212

17. Trevor Cahill – The only completely surprising name in this entire list.  I would’ve bet against him being a top 20 starter.  So does that mean I’m moron or Cahill was lucky last year?  They’re unrelated.  Both can be true and at times are true.  Cahill’s FIP was 4+ and his K-rate was egregious.  Cahill had no business having the season he had.  Preseason Rank #81, 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185, Final Numbers:  18-8/2.97/1.11/118

18. Chris Carpenter – This name isn’t surprising and is surprising.  It’s surprising because I figured Carp would get hurt, it’s not surprising because when he’s healthy he has been solid.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections: 14-7/3.10/1.05/135, Final Numbers:  16-9/3.22/1.18/179

19. Cole Hamels – After a subpar 2008, I predicted a nice bounce back for Hamels.  Well, here ya go.  Had the best K-rate of his career in a full season and had a 2.23 ERA in the 2nd half of the year.  It’s true, I have a small crush on Hamels.  We all have our crosses to bear, especially if you’re Mr. T.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.45/1.15/185, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.06/1.18/211

20. Clay Buchholz – I’ll tell ya what, I was kinda crazy for Buchholz in the preseason and he ended up okay with all the wins and decent, if misleading ERA, but his lack of Ks is downright scary.  Who jacked him for his Ks?  It’s kinda appropriate that his name uses all hard Cs.  Preseason Rank #41, 2010 Projections: 14-9/3.95/1.34/155, Final Numbers:  17-7/2.33/1.20/120

21. Nelson Cruz – I’d argue, as I’m about to do, that Cruz was actually more valuable than his ranking here if you played in a shallow enough league where you were able to reasonably replace him every time he got hurt.  Say Cruz and a hot couple of weeks from Coco Crisp and you were snap, crack and poppin’.  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15, Final Numbers:  60/22/78/.318/17

22. Delmon Young – I’m actually a bit worried about Young for next year, but I guess I’ll leave that to January.  For this year, Young almost reached his potential.  His numbers look like a poor man’s Holliday, which isn’t bad.  He has a little bit of everything, except RBIs, where he excelled, but RBIs are really hard to count on.  Preseason Rank #63, 2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7, Final Numbers:  77/21/112/.298/5

23. Drew Stubbs – He had one of those top 40 outfielder seasons where he went from being a must-own to a must-bench to a must-drop.  Some absolutely brutal stretches — June, 2 homers and a .230 average; April, 1 homer and a .186 average.  Finally, I’m not sure where the power has come from.  In his last full season at Triple-A, he hit 3 homers in 472 plate appearances.  Hit 7 homers in 548 PAs in 2008.  In his short time in the majors, he’s averaging 16.4% HR/FB, blowing his minor league numbers away.  Preseason Rank #49, 2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35, Final Numbers:  91/22/77/.255/30

24. Shane Victorino – 18 homers was very nice from a guy who can steal 35 bases.  His HR/FB% was a bit high for him so it’s probably only a one year boost in power, but the amount of fly balls compared to last year makes it seem like he was going for the fences a bit more.  Also explains the dip in average, along with some unluckiness.  Preseason Rank #22, 2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30, Final Numbers:  84/18/69/.259/34

25. Nick Swisher – Went over him in top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

26. B.J. Upton – I’m unabashedly a fan, if unabashedly means what I think it does.  Crawford ranked number 2 overall for outfielders and the only thing separating him from Upton is a lucky average year.  If Upton hits .280, his Runs will go up because Buddy Holly will leave him at the top of the order.  He’ll get on base more for more steals and he’ll be a top 5 outfielder.  Unabashedly!  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40, Final Numbers:  89/18/62/.237/42

27. Michael Bourn – Bourn masturbates to pictures of Juan Pierre.  Preseason Rank #40, 2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55, Final Numbers:  84/2/38/.265/52

28. Scott Podsednik – Turned in a Juan Pierre, in the non-French way, season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  63/6/51/.297/35

29. Adam Dunn – Went over him in top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

30. Vernon Wells – I’ll admit to staying stubborn thinking there was no way he was putting together the season he did, but after 3 straight sub-par years Color Me Surprised he did do what he did, dude.  Who knew everyone on the 1927 Blue Jays would hit so many homers?  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10, Final Numbers:  79/31/88/.273/6

31. Austin Jackson – At some point in December, MLB is going to disallow 15 of Jackson’s lucky hits and knock his average down to .275.  Watch!  Preseason Rank #75, 2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22, Final Numbers:  103/4/41/.293/27

32. Matt Kemp – I really thought 2010 was going to be the breakout Kemp season that we’re due.  Now, unfortunately, we’re overdue.  In fairness — though I’m not sure why I’m being fair to this guy — Kemp had the worst season he could possibly have and still had a top 40 outfielder season.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to be a sucker for a certain 30/30 potential, 26-year-old next year too.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32, Final Numbers:  82/28/89/.249/19

33. Torii Hunter – I have two words for you for what Hunter is going to do next year, Carloslee Thisyear.  Preseason Rank #29, 2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17, Final Numbers:  76/23/90/.281/9

34. Bobby Abreu – For this piece of under-performance art, I’m going to give you 20/20 but lose the average.  Next year, the power and speed will be gone.  Finally, I’ll be a bench player until I retire.  I call this, “The Piecemeal Collapse of Bobby Abreu.”  Preseason Rank #21, 2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20, Final Numbers:  88/20/78/.255/24

35. Andres Torres – I had love for Torres this year like he was Mondo from Project Runway.  Was one of those guys that had no business producing as well as he did, yet his hot streak seemed to last forever until he got aufed by his appendix.  Then he returned from his emergency appendectomy and produced again.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/16/63/.268/26

36. Colby Rasmus – I ended 2009 with a Colby Rasmus sleeper post, then reminded everyone in the outfielders to target post in March.  Finally, when I had enough, I told you to sell him mid-June.  In the 3 months before the sell, 16 homers, 9 steals.  3 months after that post, 7 homers and 3 steals.  Yeah, it’s like that.  Preseason Rank #47, 2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14, Final Numbers:  85/23/66/.276/12

37. Andre Ethier – I really think Ethier pays off someone over at the WWL to get ranked this high on their Player Rater.  He had 23 homers and 2 steals.  Really?  Really?!  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers:  71/23/82/.292/2

38. Jay Bruce – I gave you a little love with the Jay Bruce sleeper post and ranked him high compared to most.  Not all though.  Someone named Bill James predicted Bruce would get 38 homers and 10 steals.  Maybe he thought he was Chris Davis.  Preseason Rank #36, 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15, Final Numbers:  80/25/70/.281/5

39. Justin Upton – Not gonna lie, this was a disappointing season for Upton.  There’s really not much positive to take away from it.  He didn’t have any extended hot stretches to carry your team and practically abandoned your team late-June.  His post-All-Star break numbers were 3 homers and 6 steals.  That’s a nice week… For Mike Aviles!  Now Justin finds out he’s a carrier of the Upton bad shoulder gene.  Can we pretend like 2010 never happened for J-Upside?  Please and thank you.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20, Final Numbers:  73/17/69/.273/17

40. Jason Heyward – The mollywhopping, 1930s matinee idol surname having, Frank Thomas gams possessing, love child of Hank Aaron and a Yeti, Jason Heyward produced numbers above where I thought he’d be.  Not far above, but above.  And he missed time on the DL.  Hello, sexy.  (Here’s my Jason Heyward 2011 fantasy baseball, um, fantasy.) Preseason Rank #73, 2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20, Final Numbers:  83/18/72/.277/11

1. Carlos Gonzalez – In the preseason, I wrote a sleeper post for him, put him in my cheap alternatives post and told you he can make mayonnaise out of sea urchin*.  (*I may not have said the last one.)  Did I push you hard enough to draft him?  I hope so.  Let’s bask in a season that was for the ages before we talk about how he’s going to be overrated next season.  Shoot, that bask didn’t last long.  Preseason Rank #37, 2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20, Final Numbers: 111/34/117/.336/26

2. Carl Crawford – It’s the Carlos and Carl show!  Crawford didn’t hurt you in homers like many other players who provide the majority of their value with steals.  Still, push comes to shove and shove comes to ‘Stop touching me,’ I think Crawford’s overrated.  I want 40/20, not 20/40.  Oh, well, those days might be behind us, unless Braun or J-Upside can get their shizz together or A-Rod’s cousin accidentally bumps into someone with a needle.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  110/14/65/.290/50, Final Numbers:  110/19/90/.307/47

3. Josh Hamilton – In the preseason, I ranked him way above most ‘perts, if not all.  Here’s what I said then, “Never to be one to resist a talented guy who just had a tough year, I couldn’t stop myself from putting Hamilton higher than most ‘perts.  Is Hamilton still injury prone?  Dur, of course.  He’s still only 28 entering the 2010 season and he has big time talent.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.275/7, Final Numbers:  95/32/100/.359/8

4. Jose Bautista -  Went over him in my top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

5. Ryan Braun – Did Braun ruin your team this year?  No, he just couldn’t be relied on to carry it either.  Overall, it was a disappointing year for first round picks:  Utley, A-Rod, Braun, Te(i)x, Kemp, Fielder and Howard.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17, Final Numbers:  101/25/103/.304/14

6. Juan Pierre – I agree that all the steals help, but when there’s a lot of steals available all over the league, they mean less.  The ESPN Player Rater just puts too much emphasis on steals, so, yes, this ranking doesn’t make that much sense.  Preseason Rank #40, 2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45, Final Numbers:  96/1/47/.275/68

7. Matt Holliday – You can say what you want. (This is a free country in 49 of 50 states.  Damn you, South Dakota!)  You can say Holliday went for stretches where you didn’t want to own him and no stretches where he really carried your team.  I agree, but he’s the prototypical roto player where you just put him in there, forget about him and, at the end of the season, you have nice numbers in four categories and decent enough steals.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15, Final Numbers:  95/28/103/.312/9

8. Alex Rios – On June 1st, I told you to sell Rios.  Before that, he had 11 homers in two months.  After the sell, he had 10 homers in 4 months.  Before the sell, he had 16 steals.  In 4 months after, he had 18 steals.  .312 average before, .272 average after.  Yes, Rios was a huge performer for the year, but, in the final 4 months, he was just above average.  Sorry, I’m still bitter.  Preseason Rank #26, 2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22, Final Numbers:  89/21/88/.284/34

9. Ichiro Suzuki – This is one of those instances when I don’t buy into the rankings that ESPN is giving me.  Ichiro murdered you in three categories (Runs, HRs and RBIs), was great in steals (which are abundant) and was good in average.  It’s a’ight.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25, Final Numbers:  74/6/43/.315/42

10. Shin-Soo Choo – He really is the younger, Korean Torii Hunter.  He’s settled into this nice groove where he gives you exactly what you expect to see and that’s 20/20.  Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20, Final Numbers:  81/22/90/.300/22

11. Jayson Werth – Werth will be one of the most talked about value changes in fantasy next year depending on where he ends up.  I have this sinking feeling that he’s going to the Padres.  Or maybe the M’s will kill another hitter’s value.  Or maybe the Rays will replace Crawford with Werth.  One of the more compelling things I’m following.  Along with the new Real World/Road Rules Challenge.  Where’s CT and Tina?!  As for this year, Werth gave you more or less what can be expected of him.  No more, a little less.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18, Final Numbers:  106/27/85/.296/13

12. Vladimir Guerrero – Hello, Shoddy Knees, my old friend.  I’ve come to own you in fantasy again.  And it worked out, so there’s that.  Vlad was one of those players that I didn’t plan on owning in any leagues, but he was going for so ridiculously cheap in my drafts, I couldn’t help myself.  Thank you, Vlad the ’97 Impala.  Preseason Rank #1 for Utility Players, 2010 Projections:  70/26/95/.290/3, Final Numbers:  83/29/115/.300/4

13. Hunter Pence – This season, give or take a few homers and steals, will probably be what you’re going to get from Pence for the next three years.  It’s good, valuable, worthwhile, yadda².  But I don’t think you’re ever going to get 1st round value from him.  No 35+ homers, no .330 average, no elite Runs and RBIs because the Astros aren’t very good with no sign of that clearing any time soon.  Preseason Rank #34, 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15, Final Numbers:  93/25/91/.282/18

14. Angel Pagan – Only completely out of nowhere outfielder to crack the top 20.  Actually, that’s pretty impressive since I rank about 90 to 100 outfielders.  Would’ve been more impressive if you ranked Pagan. Thanks for clarifying, random italicized voice.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  80/11/69/.290/37

15. Krispie Young – In the preseason, I said, “If Krispie hits a third of his infield pop-ups for homers next year, he’ll hit 40.  And if I were 30 years old in 1760, I’d think Martha Washington was hot.” And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15, Final Numbers:  94/27/91/.257/28

16. Andrew McCutchen – Before the season ended, I was watching The Dread Pirate and thinking to myself, “This is a guy who is going to go 20/40 soon and be a top 5 overall fantasy player.  And I’m getting hungry.  Mmm…I could go for some Chipotle.  I’m gonna ask for more rice though.  I want to eat half my burrito and use the other half for a pillow when the food coma hits.  Wait, just because I was thinking this doesn’t mean I need to write it.”  Preseason Rank #35, 2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30, Final Numbers:  94/16/56/.286/33

17. Corey Hart – Here’s another guy in midst of this season that I told you to sell.  I’m not going to break down his pre- and post-Sell numbers, but I’m sure I came out on top again since he trailed off in the 2nd half.  I feel like Hart might actually be underrated a tad next year because I’m not sure people fully trust him.  I think 2010 is close to repeatable.  Some less average and homers and a few more steals.  Preseason Rank #45, 2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17, Final Numbers:  91/31/102/.283/7

18. Brett Gardner – I left Gardner unranked last year because when I ranked players in January, he didn’t have a full-time job.  The Yankee outfield was crowded and there’s was talk of a platoon.  Once Gardner got the job, I wrote about him in March as a cheap source of steals.  I don’t say this to defend myself, I’m trying to avoid the Random Razzball Commenter, “Grey sux!!!  Long live Matthew Berry!!!  Oh, and while I’m here, would you keep Gardner for 2011?”  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  75/4/38/.266/36, Final Numbers:  97/5/47/.277/47

19. Rajai Davis – Enter the SAGNOF portion of our program, which will be continued in the next post about the top 40 outfielders.  This is also where me and the ESPN Player Rater have major disagreements.  Steals are everywhere nowadays.  Steals are the new bacon.  I just got a steal and the season ended weeks ago.  I lost a sock in the dryer but pulled out 3 steals.  So, I think homers should be weighted higher than steals, which would move guys like Rajai down, but here we are.  Preseason Rank #40, 2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50, Final Numbers:  66/5/52/.284/50

20. Aubrey Huff – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

1. Jose Bautista – He had 59 homers in four previous seasons combined.  That was in 570 extra games.  No wonder some people were calling Jose Bah-test-him.  (Never heard anyone actually call him this, but they should’ve been.)  This is the most improbable 50 homer season since Brady Anderson, who was aided by Luke Perry’s sideburns.  How awesome would it have been if McGwire was Bautista’s hitting coach this year?  Would’ve been like when a face wrestler suddenly is recruited by a heel manager.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  109/54/124/.260/9

2. David Wright – At this point, I think it’s fair to say you’re never getting 35 homers from Wright as long as he calls Metco home.  At least you didn’t get another 10 homer season, or as Ralph Kiner calls it, ‘What my Mommy hits.’  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17, Final Numbers:  87/29/103/.283/19

3. Adrian Beltre – I didn’t look this up because Google requires me to open a new tab, but Beltre has to have Boras as his agent, right?  Speaking of heel managers, Boras is the ultimate heel agent.  He would be Bob Sugar in Jerry Maguire.  If you get the sense I’m annoyed by these top guys, I am.  Bautista had no business having that season and Beltre is El Senator, as Rudy dubbed him.  Because Beltre campaigns every 6 years, making promises he doesn’t live up to once under contract.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10, Final Numbers:  84/28/102/.321/2

4. Evan Longoria – If you would’ve told me before the season started that Longoria would get 15 steals, I would’ve been over the moon, or whatever that old-timey expression is.  Though I would’ve expected those steals to be paired with 35 homers.  Someone not only stole his New Era cap but also his power.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10, Final Numbers:  96/22/104/.294/15

5. Ryan Zimmerman – Seems like his career is following the two steps forward, one step back Electric Slide approach.  In fairness, it was due to some thigh tightness in April and missing the last two weeks that caused Zimmerman to fall just short of projections.  I have to say, for a top guy, he kinda bored me for stretches.  Particularly, the 2 homer, .245 month of June and a zero homer month of September.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5, Final Numbers:  85/25/85/.307/4

6. Alex Rodriguez – It’s going to be surprisingly difficult to rank A-Rod next year for the first time in 15 years.  He seems to have settled into a solid, yet unspectacular option at 3rd base.  His lineup doesn’t hurt his Runs and RBIs, but the huge homer totals and steals have vanished along with his cousin.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  110/36/120/.310/15, Final Numbers:  74/30/125/.270/4

7. Michael Young – I feel like I’m in countdown waiting for this guy to get old, or, rather, show his age.  I know that any season now he’s going to go from 20+ homers to 15 homers and become tough to own at a high production spot in fantasy lineups.  In 2010, it was not yet that year.  Check in again in 2011.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10, Final Numbers:  99/21/91/.284/4

8. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 post.

9. Casey McGehee – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

10. Kevin Youkilis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 post.

11. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 post.

12. Scott Rolen – In the first half of 2010, Rolen was a Rolex.  In the 2nd half, he turned out to be a Rolecks.  Preseason Unranked Final Numbers:  66/20/83/.285/1

13. Omar Infante – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

14. Chone Figgins – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

15. Chase Headley – I was admittedly too high on this guy in the preseason.  He wasn’t a sleeper, he was a Valium.  If you throw out his 7 steal month of April, he was middling at best, unownable at worse.  Preseason Rank #21, 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10, Final Numbers:  77/11/58/.264/17

16. Placido Polanco – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

17. Neil Walker – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

18. Miguel Tejada – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops for 2010 post.

19. Juan Uribe – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

20. Mark Reynolds – This Reynolds year should be a warning for Bautista’s 2011.  I’ll call him overrated and will still probably give him too much credit, as I did with Reynolds.  In 2009, Mini Donkey received all the brays.  In 2010, you pulled on Mini Donkey’s reins to try and get him to move.  Finally, you tried to push on his ass and he kicked you in the teeth.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12, Final Numbers:  79/32/85/.198/7

1. Hanley Ramirez – Hanley doesn’t need to work on his swing in the offseason, he needs to go on Breakthrough with Tony Robbins or maybe a Biggest Loser spin-off show where people aren’t fat, just unmotivated.  Let’s call it, Just Losers.  Or get him a friggin’ motivational poster with a kitten climbing a mountain.  Hanley was one of the few players in their prime that I actually lowered their power number projections and he ended up coming even below those projections.  A shame isn’t it?  Not a shame, a problem, Treach.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.320/25, Final Numbers:  92/21/76/76/.300/32

2. Troy Tulowitzki – See if this rings a bell for you, “Without a poor April and May, he’d be the top ranked shortstop.  Yeah, he was that good.”  That’s what I said after the 2009 season.  This year he hit 1 homer in April and missed just about the whole month of July.  If it wasn’t for an otherworldly September when he single-handedly won people H2H leagues, we’d be talking about Tulo’s busted season.  Remember, he had only 12 homers going into September.  That is not a good five months.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12, Final Numbers:  89/27/95/.315/11

3. Jose Reyes – Not quite the bounce back I envisioned when I drafted him on all of my teams and told you to draft him, but it’s hard to fault a guy who is ranked 3rd overall and missed extended periods of time with injuries.  He’s about the only Met I truly love and, at some point, the Mets will realize that Reyes is the key to their offense and that means him running like crazy.  Especially in Metco.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections:  105/11/55/.285/45, Final Numbers:  83/11/54/.282/30

4. Alexei Ramirez – Pretty pathetic that Alexei is ranked this high considering the year he had.  They’re not middle infielders, they’re middling infielders.  It’s so tough to own someone like Alexei who doesn’t ever really get hot.  He just hits one homer every week and a half or so and steals a base every two weeks.  That almost put me to sleep typing it out.  Or am I asleep?  I need to spin a top.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15, Final Numbers:  83/18/70/.282/13

5. Derek Jeter – Here’s a theory.  You know how once all the great filmmakers find happiness they start producing crap?  Coppola’s Jack, Woody Allen’s 1990s, Oliver Stone post-Natural Born Killers… Maybe Jeter needed the motivation of not having a serious girlfriend.  Once he committed to Minka he no longer cared how well he played since a long term piece of tail was in place.  Or maybe it’s just age.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20, Final Numbers:  111/10/67/.270/18

6. Rafael Furcal – I know it seems like I’m a total downer on all of these guys, but Furcal’s numbers are terrible for this ranking.  Look at his Runs.  That’s a top of the order guy?  66?!  F(urcal) my life.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20, Final Numbers:  66/8/43/.300/22

7. Stephen Drew – He hit 4 homers in the first 4 months.  Yes, to get ranked this high all you needed was one good month.  (His August:  8 homers, 19 RBIs, 25 Runs and a .310 average.) Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4, Final Numbers:  83/15/61/.278/10

8. Omar Infante – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

9. Elvis Andrus – I had mad love for Elvis in the preseason and it’s not going to stop going into 2011.  He’s still very young and this season was a good first step.  Now if he can work on his first step on steal attempts, we’ll be all set.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections: 75/8/50/.270/37, Final Numbers:  88/0/35/.265/32

10. Ian Desmond – Wanna hear something scary?  In my Ian Desmond sleeper post, I had Desmond down for pretty much exactly what he ended doing.  His projections really aren’t far off.  Yet, he was kinda unownable for long stretches of the season.  Preseason Rank #21, 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20, Final Numbers:  59/10/65/.269/17

11. Mike Aviles – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

12. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

13. Alex Gonzalez – This list pretty sums up why I punt middle infield every year.  You obviously could’ve drafted 12 of these 20 shortstops at any point in a draft.  And, even better, you draft one then rotate from hot middle infielder to hot middle infielder.  Why do I rotate my middle infielders and ‘Set It and Forget It’ with my catchers?  Will have to be an offseason post.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/23/88/.250/1

14. Cliff Pennington – I call this middle infielder, a Puntington.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  64/6/46/.250/29

15. Miguel Tejada – The fact that he came pretty close to matching my projections, combined with the fact I wouldn’t own him anywhere should give you an idea of the state of shortstops and the state of offense, in general.  It’s like Hamsterdam without the drugs.  Preseason Rank #14 for Shortstops, 2010 Projections:  70/15/85/.295/4, Final Numbers:  71/15/71/.269/2

16. Juan Uribe – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

17. Jeff Keppinger – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 post.

18. Starlin Castro – If you remove his first game in the big leagues, he doesn’t make this list.  All you needed was one good game to make the top 20 shortstops!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  53/3/41/.300/10

19. Yuniesky Betancourt – Yes, it’s comical that Betancourt is listed in these rankings.  Wanna stop smiling?  Jimmy Rollins didn’t even make the list.  (Smile again if you didn’t draft Rollins.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  60/16/78/.259/2

20. Ryan Theriot – I just hope if you drafted this schmohawk, you heeded the Emergency Broadcasting System’s warning and got out of The Riot in time to save your team.  Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22, Final Numbers:  72/2/29/.270/20

1. Robinson Cano – In the preseason, I said, “With Cano going to be the magical 27 years old in 2010 when power tends to peak, I hope Cano can pull a high-20s homer season out of his hat.”  And that’s me quoting me!  A note on the projections vs. the final stats.  They’re actually close but since I predicted a 6th place ranking for those stats it goes to show you how weak offense was last year.  In 2010, 6th ranked stats got you ranked first.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5, Final Numbers:  103/29/109/.319/3

2. Dan Uggla – Again, I wasn’t really that far off with my projections.  The average was much higher than I or anyone, including Uggla, thought he could hit.  Just reiterates my point that average is completely fluky.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3, Final Numbers:  100/33/105/.287/4

3. Rickie Weeks – And there’s the season we can get if Weeks were to just stay healthy.  Now someone put him in a bubble for the rest of his career.  Thank you.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  75/17/55/.255/15, Final Numbers:  112/29/83/.269/11

4. Kelly Johnson – Easily beat out Jamey Carroll for best 2nd baseman with a girl’s name.  Though Jamey does sound a bit cuter.  Anyway, back on January 4th, I said this, “http://razzball.com/bays-new-years-resolution-drop-15-homers/”  Hmm… That didn’t cut and paste right.  Well, that’s the post URL, you figure it out.  If you didn’t know I liked Kelly Johnson in the preseason, you weren’t reading Razzball.  How’s dem apples?  Sour?  Sorry.  Preseason Rank #21 (though I said he was really ranked 14th, how’s that for hedging?), 2010 Projections:  85/15/65/.270/10, Final Numbers:  93/26/71/.284/13

5. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

6. Brandon Phillips – Wasn’t a great year for BP, in every sense of the abbreviation.  He was headed for his fourth straight 20/20 season then the 2nd half of the season happened.  The HBP hit BP’s wrist and sent him Septumbling.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22, Final Numbers:  100/18/59/.275/16

7. Casey McGehee – He ended up beating his Dad by 18 spots.  Ended up giving a lot more value due to his RBI total, which isn’t something you can count on (see Prince Fielder for further reading).  I have a feeling McGehee won’t be overrated in the preseason, so he could still be a value play.  Preseason Rank #16, 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.280, Final Numbers:  70/23/104/.285/1

8. Chase Utley – It hurts seeing Utley this low.  It’s like when your girlfriend stops returning your phone calls and then you sit outside her door only to find her come home with another man.  Not that I know anything about that.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  110/32/105/.300/15, Final Numbers:  75/16/65/.275/13

9. Howard Kendrick – And now we’re pretty much in the tomato-tomahto section of the program.  This is gonna come as a shock to people, but I think I’m ready to get on the Howie train for 2011.  Won’t reach too high for him because his power and speed still yawnstipate him, but I think he’s about ready for his coming out party, Ricky Martin.  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12, Final Numbers:  67/10/75/.279/14

10. Omar Infante – Was actually more valuable than it seems from this ranking because you didn’t really own him for the whole year, you only owned him when he was hitting in the 2nd half.  So add Theriot’s April with Kinsler’s May-June and Infante’s July and August and you had a solid Frankeninfielder.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/8/47/.321/7

11. Chone Figgins – <sarcasm>I’m sure glad I finally owned Figgy this year after all the years I avoided him.  He will definitely be on my short list of guys I absolutely must own next year.</sarcasm> Figgy is my Bart and I’m Sideshow Bob.  Preseason Rank #8 for 3rd Basemen, 2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40, Final Numbers:  62/1/35/.259/42

12. Ben Zobrist – Not as disappointing as it seems until you factor in where you had to draft him.  Oh, and very disappointing after his historic (for him) 2009 campaign.  Prepare to hear similar things next year with Bautista.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12, Final Numbers:  77/10/75/.238/24

13. Ian Kinsler – It’s people like Kinsler that will abuse Obamacare.  Actually, I don’t even know what Obamacare is.  I’m ignorant, ya’ll!  Kinsler will be one of those players next year that will reward his current owners and totally piss off all his owners from 2010.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34, Final Numbers:  73/9/45/.286/15

14. Mike Aviles – Wanna know how pathetic the 2nd basemen were?  You really only needed two great weeks to get ranked in the top 15.  Luckily for Aviles’ owners, those weeks came at the best time of the season.  I accept this H2H trophy on behalf of all the men and women in the Armed Forces, and Mike Aviles.  He rocked!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  63/8/32/.304/14

15. Marco Scutaro – This — along with Prado’s ranking — is another one of those places I don’t fully agree with ESPN’s Player Rater.  Raburn, Pedroia (for half a year), even Aaron Hill would be above Scutaro if I had my druthers or if I knew what druthers were.  Preseason #15 for Shortstops, 2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7, Final Numbers:  92/11/56/.275/5

16. Placido Polanco – Member all the people in the preseason that were like, “Yo, Grey, check it!  Polanco’s now in Citizens Flank and in a good lineup!  He’s the bomb diggity!  March commenter out.”  Yeah, and Polanco gave you another yawnstipating season.  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/10, Final Numbers:  76/6/52/.298/5

17. Neil Walker – Okay, this is a glass half full or half empty test.  If you see Walker ranked here and think about how great Walker was, you’re an optimist.  If you see him ranked here and think about how polluted the womb of 2nd basemen is, you’re a pessimist.  Preseason Unranked , Final Numbers:  57/12/66/.296/2

18. Juan Uribe – You ever see this guy swing?  He shortens his swing on an 0-2 count about as well as JWoww covers her chest.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  64/24/85/.248/1

19. Jeff Keppinger – Blanco Polanco ranked in the top 20?  Case closed, 2nd basemen are found guilty of being awful.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  62/6/59/.288/4

20. Ryan Raburn – Is it weird that I’m already excited about him for 2011?  No?  Cool.  Okay, is it weird that I’m typing this in the nude?  No again?  Sweet!  Raburn finally saw a fair number of at-bats in the 2nd half when he hit .315 with 13 homers.  Someone get my man Raburn a full-time job… Or just send everyone on the Tigers not named Jackson, Boesch and Cabrera to the Bermuda Triangle on vacation.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/10, Final Numbers:  54/15/62/.280/2

1. Albert Pujols – Proves once again if you have the first pick of the draft, you shouldn’t overthink things.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10, Final Numbers:  115/42/118/.312/14

2. Joey Votto – In my preseason rankings, I put Votto in a tier called, “Yes, please.”  In my December Joey Votto keeper post, I said, “If Votto continues to progress, you’re looking at a guy that could easily give you 32 homers, 10 steals and a .300 average.  If you buy into Joey Votto for 2010, I’ll also throw in a climbing walk rate and OPS for absolutely free!”  And that’s me quoting me!  If you didn’t know I wanted you to draft Votto, you weren’t reading Razzball.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7, Final Numbers:  106/37/113/.324/16

3. Miguel Cabrera – About as consistent as they come.  Be forewarned, I’m strongly considering Miggy for the number one spot in all of fantasy baseball next year.  What was that about not overthinking things?  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3, Final Numbers:  111/38/126/.328/3

4. Paul Konerko – Konerko’s one of those late round corner men that is always welcome in deep leagues and always ignored in shallow ones.  He falls between the cracks like C+ students.  This year, he took pitchers to school.  Will be really hard for me to expect anything along these lines next year from Konerko and he’ll probably surprise me again.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  55/24/75/.260, Final Numbers:  89/39/111/.312

5. Adrian Gonzalez – Well, I’ve seen better seasons.  Miggy for one, that was a better season.  But it’s hard to hate too much on A-Gon.  At least he wasn’t Prince Fielder.  Or Justin Morneau.  Or Teixeira.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280, Final Numbers:  87/31/101/.298

6. Aubrey Huff – I didn’t have high hopes for him moving to a pitchers’ park/division.  Yeah, I was wrong.  Hey, even Spielberg made 1941.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  100/26/86/.290/7

7. Ryan Howard – I wanted the 40 homers from Howard and you did too.  So it’s hard to not look at this season as a slight letdown.  Really the whole Phillies offense this year was a letdown.  It’s Citizens Flank, hit some homers before some fans hit you.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275, Final Numbers:  87/31/108/.276/1

8. Nick Swisher – Swisher was the kind of pick that helped you win your league.  You draft a random schmohawk in the last rounds, you slot him at corner and he ends up better than your 1st round pick.  I’m farting in your general direction, Fielder.  Preseason Unranked for 1st Basemen, 2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255, Final Numbers:  91/29/89/.288/1

9. Mark Teixeira – PABST:  Post-All-Star Break’s Stats Teixeira looked more like PBS BS:  Post-Break Stats Before September, which left him looking like a charity case most of the season.  Am I being tough?  Prolly.  Really only his average killed you.  I expect he’ll have a nice bounce back next year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305, Final Numbers:  113/33/108/.256

10. Martin Prado – This is one of those ESPN Player Rater glitches that ranks someone high because of a good average and Runs.  Prado was no 1st baseman.  He was a good corner infidel.  Preseason Unranked for 1st Basemen, 2010 Projections:  70/8/60/.305, Final Numbers:  100/15/66/.307/5

11. Adam Dunn – And, on the hottest day of the year, he blew clouds over your house when your AC went out.  You’re welcome.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250, Final Numbers:  85/38/103/.260

12. Billy Butler – I didn’t like him going into 2010 and told people to avoid him.  And his stats still came in way under where I even thought he’d be with only 7.5 homers per moob.  He still wasn’t as big a moob as Kung Fu Panda who didn’t even make the top 30, let alone top 20.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295, Final Numbers:  77/15/78/.318

13. Prince Fielder – Where do I start?  Okay, how about the fluky nature of RBIs?  You really can’t blame Fielder for having less RBIs than Juan Uribe.  Then only 32 homers?  Yeah, you can blame that on the Chubbster.  He’s looking like the raison d’etre for Saberhagenmetrics.  One year good, one year bad and so it goes with Fielder.  And so it goes… Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285, Final Numbers:  94/32/83/.261/1

14. Victor Martinez – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2010 post.

15. Luke Scott – Luke, you are my waiver wire fodder.  In a few leagues where I had Scott, I had him for, like, three weeks and had 12 homers from him.  Doode gets hotter than a junebug’s belly.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/27/72/.284/2

16. Kevin Youkilis – His low ranking is deceiving.  Assuming you had the fortitude and gumption (gumpitude?) to grab a decent 1st baseman when Youuuuuuk went down, you did okay.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5, Final Numbers:  77/19/62/.307/4

17. Michael Cuddyer – He’s not exactly ranked high here, but it’s still scary how high he is considering how terrible his final stats are.  I mean, 14 homers?  Really?  Crimey a river, JT.  I think it’s pretty clear the steroid era is over and if someone can get you 30+ homers you must draft them high.  Preseason Rank #21, 2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5, Final Numbers:  93/14/81/.271/7

18. Howie Kendrick – Huh?  At first base?  I’m gonna go over him in the next post on top 20 2nd basemen because this doesn’t make any sense to me.  Preseason Unranked for 1st Basemen, 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12, Final Numbers:  67/10/75/.279/14

19. Gaby Sanchez – He was in the 2nd Buy/Sell of the year as a lukewarm Buy and he never really moved beyond that.  Was a good pickup for NL-Only or very deep mixed leagues, but if you had Gaby anywhere but the corner infidel spot, you were in trouble.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/19/85/.273/5

20. Adam LaRoche – He actually had a decent first half this year (for him) that seemed like it would naturally turn into a career year because he’s always been such a better 2nd half player.  Too bad no one told LaRoche about any of this.  Preseason Rank #24, 2010 Projections:  70/27/80/.265, Final Numbers:  75/25/100/.261

1. Joe Mauer – I predicted the homers would come down.  Literally.  Only I didn’t think they’d fall as far as they did.  It was the Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome factor that I just couldn’t fully know back in January.  Mauer ended up number one and I’d contend he was still overrated and will be so again next March.  Certain guys just get a pass from the fantasy community because they seem likable or have can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness. Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3, Final Numbers:  88/9/75/.327/1

2. Victor Martinez – V-Mart’s age still hasn’t caught up with him (sorta pun!), but I think, in retrospect, we’re going to look back at this season as the beginning of the end for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300, Final Numbers:  64/20/79/.302/1

3. Buster Posey – I ranked him 16th in the preseason and here he is 3rd.  The scary thing is, besides the average, I was pretty right on with his projections.  That means it was another yawnstipating year from catchers.  Preseason Rank #16, 2010 Projections:  55/14/65/.290/3, Final Numbers:  58/18/67/.305

4. Brian McCann – I love McCann, there I said it.  He gives you what I want from a catcher.  Good homers, decent RBIs and doesn’t hurt you elsewhere.  Much prefer that to Mauer’s MI-type catcher output.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3, Final Numbers:  63/21/77/.269/5

5. John Buck – This was the most bang from your Buck since Midnight Cowboy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  53/20/66/.281

6. Mike Napoli – I Ron Popeil’d him in a few leagues and I’m glad I did.  Even it wasn’t for the Sciosciapath, he probably would’ve hit 30+ homers. Sure, the average wasn’t great, but, as I’ve said many times, since there’s fewer ABs from catchers, you’re fine with a guy like Napoli.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5, Final Numbers:  60/26/68/.238/4

7. Miguel Olivo – Well, I ranked Iannetta around here in the preseason and I told you to grab Olivo in April so I wasn’t completely Mr. Bungle on Olivo, but, considering his post-All-Star break numbers were egregious, I’d say his high ranking here is more about the state of catchers.  They’re really bad, ya’ll.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  30/16/45/.245, Final Numbers:  55/14/58/.269/7

8. Geovany Soto – Member when I told everyone to draft him?  Good times.  Or, more appropriately, okay times.  For a catcher, not bad times.  Here’s what I said at the Geovany Soto sleeper post last January, “Soto’s 2009 was off the charts unlucky.  His BABIP went from .337 in 2008 to .251 last year.  I.e. His average should come up to .270 levels.  His power was zapped because of a shoulder injury.  When he started to get healthy in June, he hit 6 homers that month.  Then an oblique injury sidelined him.  Bad luck followed by terrible luck.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280, Final Numbers:  47/17/53/.280

9. Carlos Ruiz – Honestly, if you jumped out of DeLorean and told me in the preseason Ruiz would be ranked this high and told me his final stats, I still wouldn’t have drafted him.  8 homers and no steals?  Who are you, Willy Aybar?  Ruiz was unranked, but he made the preseason catchers to target post.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  45/14/65/.260/3, Final Numbers:  43/8/53/.302

10. Jorge Posada – About two years ago, I jumped off the “Ever drafting Posada again” bandwagon and I’m never going back.  Too old, too tired, too effin’ blind.  Okay, maybe not the last one.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280, Final Numbers:  49/18/57/.248/3

11. A.J. Pierzynski – Looking back on these catchers makes me feel like Creighton on a New Orleans ferry.  A.J. was in the don’t draft tier along with Yadier and Suzuki and, looking back, I wouldn’t change a thing.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280, Final Numbers:  43/9/56/.270/3

12. Kurt Suzuki – I’d go as far to say Suzuki was actually better than A.J. because he was injured and you were getting stats from someone else while Suzuki was hurt, or, if you were really lucky, you just dropped him.  Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: 65/12/65/.270/6, Final Numbers:  55/13/71/.242/3

13. Yadier Molina – His numbers are even more yawnstipating than Crapolanco.  Preseason Rank #13, 2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5, Final Numbers:  34/6/62/.262/8

14. Ramon Hernandez – Do you see a theme here?  Catchers were so bad, a guy who didn’t even play in 100 games or crack 10 homers is ranked this high.  If you take nothing else away from this post, please punt catchers next year.  Please.  Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265, Final Numbers:  30/7/48/.297

15. John Jaso – I’ve been looking at Jaso as a potential sleeper for next year, but I just don’t think his power or speed upside is great enough.  He might be “The Old Russell Martin (Or Maybe That’s A Young Russell Martin)” at best.  You know, the Martin that actually had value.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  57/5/44/.263/4

16. Yorvit Torrealba – If you owned Torrealba for longer than two months, you didn’t win your league.  There’s just no way.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  31/7/37/.271/7

17. Ryan Doumit – Chew on this:  If Yuniesky Betancourt were a catcher, he’d be ranked in the top ten.  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections: 50/16/60/.280/3, Final Numbers:  42/13/45/.251/1

18. Rod Barajas – Ladies and gentlemen, I bring to you your 2010 fantasy baseball catchers.  They are the new blech.  2010 Projections:  Please/Don’t/Draft/Him, Final Numbers:  Do/You/Really/Care?

19. Miguel Montero – I’d say Wieters was the much, much bigger bust than Montero simply because Montero was injured for an extended stretch so you had a chance to get someone else’s numbers from him.  But, don’t get me wrong, Montero was a rather supersized disappointment too.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280, Final Numbers:  36/9/43/.266

20. Matt Wieters – Finally, the Billy Butler-sized bust.  As I practice my Saberhagenmetrics, Wieters will be on quite a few teams of mine next year.  Sucks if you got caught in the crossfire of his down year, but one bad season at 24-years-old doesn’t take his future shine off.  The Orioles could surprise next year.  Yeah, I said it!  And kinda mean it.  Though they’ll still only land in third or fourth place.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305, Final Numbers:  37/11/55/.249

Now that Dan Szymborski – the man behind ZiPS projections – is providing free ‘rest of season’ projections at FanGraphs, I figured I’d see what the Point Shares would look like.  I’ve posted the 12 team MLB Point Shares under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings tab in the top menu.

I’ve made no changes to Dan’s projections except for knocking down the AB’s (and adjusting the other stats proportionally) for a few injured players.

The results are interesting to say the least (which is an odd saying…if that’s the least you can say about something, it’s pretty damn good.  When I ask my lady how sex was and she says “Interesting to say the least”, I figure every adjective ‘more’ than interesting is positive.   A diss would be more ‘Interesting to say the most” which is pretty harsh.  The most I could say is it made a ripple in the tedium that fills my day…)

In any case, the main theme in this data is that 1H 2010 DOES play a factor in projecting 2H results (Mauer’s previous 19 HR season has been scaled to 7 HRs in the 2nd half.  Bautista is projected for 10 more HRs in 2nd half after an initial projection of 14 HRs for the whole year) BUT it’s not everything.

Dan Haren – who started the season at #6 on our MLB 12 Team Point Shares (based on blended ZiPS and CHONE stats) – is #8 based on 2nd half projections despite a so-so 1st half and his historical struggles in the 2nd half.  On the flip side, David Price is #260 despite having excellent stats to date.

So give it a look….it should be interesting to say the least (or most)….

P.S.  We’re just running the Point Shares for MLB 12 team vs. all the league and team versions for the 1st half.  Sorry.

MLB 10-team league

MLB 12-team league

MLB 14-team league

MLB 16-team league

Point Shares are our proprietary methodology for ranking players.  See here for a primer.  If you’re in a rush or don’t care to read a methodology post, these rankings estimate a player’s impact on a team’s points vs. the average drafted player at that position.  Ever wonder what the value is of , say, Carl Crawford’s SBs?  Our estimate in a 12-team league is 3.3 points – so if you have a team with average speed and Crawford, you’ll fall close to 10 points (average is 6.5 + 3.3).  How bad does Jacoby Ellsbury’s HR/RBI hurt you vs. an average OF?   He costs you 1.6 points in HR and another 1.5 points in RBI (that’s why he comes in at #102 vs. the very high pick in other rankings).

I don’t recommend that you use this as a de facto draft rankings.  You have to factor in how the other teams in your league will value players.  No reason to draft a player a few rounds before anyone else will.

You’ll find that Point Shares value pitchers more than any set of drafters ever would.  Before you go all crazy and draft 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds, remember that these estimates are based on adding  a player to the average team.  Once you add a stud pitcher like Lincecum, your pitching staff is way above average.  Any additional pitcher will have less incremental value.  Unlike Spinal Tap’s amplifiers, you can’t go past 10 in a category if you’re in a 10 team league no matter how much you dominate.

In the next week or so, we’ll be posting 8-team, 10-team, and 12-team AL-only and NL-only.

Comment below if you have any questions…

If you’re in a tight squeeze in a draft and you don’t have time to look at a dozen different posts or read everything I wrote about a player, you just look at the fantasy baseball tiers and you know quickly know where a guy ranks and a snapshot of what I’m thinking.  For instance, you see Manny Ramirez sitting there in your draft. You quickly scan the fantasy baseball tiers and see I have him below lots of names and right behind Carlos Lee.  Their ADPs say Lee is at 70 and Manny is at 62, so I like Lee more than Manny, but others don’t.  I also say, “This is your father’s fantasy baseball outfield.”  So you can quickly infer I’m saying these guys are old and are on the way down rather than up.  There’s a place for solid but unexciting, but that’s exactly what you’re getting there.  You look at the 2nd tier in the 1st basemen and you can quickly see I like Morneau better than Youuuuuk and Mini Donkey though their ADPs say others like them in the reverse order.  Anyway, you get the gist.  Now thank Figgy.

Also, frequent commenter, Steve went the extra mile and put my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball into a spreadsheet.  Okay, now thank Steve.

Finally, we added a new category to the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator.  I got the Pseudo-Intellectual Andujars.  But don’t tell him.

100. Johnny Damon – 2010 Projections:  100/20/75/.290/15
101. Nate McLouth – 2010 Projections:  95/20/75/.260/20
102. Hunter Pence – 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15
103. Carlos Marmol – 2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves
104. Jose Lopez – 2010 Projections:  75/22/90/.275/3
105. Vladimir Guerrero – 2010 Projections:  70/26/90/.310/3
106. Yovani Gallardo – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.85/1.32/175
107. Jake Peavy – 2010 Projections:  10-5/3.35/1.15/145
108. Francisco Rodriguez – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves
109. Joakim Soria – 2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves
110. David Aardsma – 2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves
111. Chipper Jones – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5
112. Miguel Montero – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280
113. Elvis Andrus – 2010 Projections:  80/8/50/.270/37
114. Alexei Ramirez – 2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15
115. Matt Garza – 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200
116. Jered Weaver – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180
117. Jose Valverde – 2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves
118. Scott Baker – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170
119. Andrew McCutchen – 2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30
120. Jay Bruce – 2010 Projections:  80/30/95/.270/7
121. Carlos Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20
122. Brian Wilson – 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves
123. Francisco Cordero – 2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves
124. Mike Napoli – 2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5
125. Geovany Soto – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
126. Stephen Drew – 2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4
127. Garrett Jones – 2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12
128. Javier Vazquez – 2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200
129. Ryan Dempster – 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170
130. Roy Oswalt – 2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150
131. Rafael Soriano – 2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves
132. Tommy Hanson – 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175
133. Matt Cain – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165
134. A.J. Burnett – 2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200
135. Kevin Slowey – 2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165
136. Chris Davis – 2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7
137. Adrian Beltre – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10
138. Nolan Reimold – 2010 Projections:  85/25/95/.290/10
139. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  95/8/65/.300/20
140. Billy Wagner – 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves
141. Clint Barmes – 2010 Projections:  65/15/75/.255/12
142. Rickie Weeks – 2010 Projections:  75/17/55/.255/15
143. David Price – 2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155
144. Michael Cuddyer – 2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5
145. Brad Hawpe – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280
146. Jason Kubel – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285
147. Corey Hart – 2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17
148. Brian Fuentes – 2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves
149. Dexter Fowler – 2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35
150. Andrew Bailey – 2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves
151. Ryan Franklin – 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves
152. Leo Nunez – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves
153. Frank Francisco – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves
154. Mike Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  1-3/3.15/1.22/70, 20 saves
155. Octavio Dotel – 2010 Projections:  2-4/3.45/1.34/65, 30 saves
156. Michael Bourn – 2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55
157. Johnny Cueto – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160
158. Clay Buchholz – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155
159. Ervin Santana – 2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185
160. Jorge de la Rosa – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200
161. Nyjer Morgan – 2010 Projections:  105/4/45/.300/45
162. Yunel Escobar – 2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3
163. Miguel Tejada – 2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4
164. J.J. Hardy – 2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260
165. Rafael Furcal – 2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20
166. Colby Rasmus – 2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14
167. Travis Snider – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.265
168. Neftali Feliz – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120
169. Max Scherzer – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165
170. James Shields – 2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160
171. John Lackey – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130
172. Brandon Webb – 2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165
173. Carlos Zambrano – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140
174. Jorge Posada – 2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280
175. Chris Iannetta – 2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265
176. Phil Hughes – 2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130
177. Joba Chamberlain – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160
178. Jonathan Sanchez – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200
179. Trevor Hoffman – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.05/1.12/40, 25 saves
180. Everth Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35
181. Bengie Molina – 2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270
182. Tim Hudson – 2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145
183. Alcides Escobar – 2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40
184. Rajai Davis – 2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50
185. Julio Borbon – 2010 Projections:  90/8/40/.300/40
186. Juan Pierre – 2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45
187. David Ortiz – 2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265
188. Ryan Theriot – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22
189. Howie Kendrick – 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12
190. Cameron Maybin – 2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20
191. Marco Scutaro – 2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7
192. Erick Aybar – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17
193. Jhonny Peralta – 2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265
194. Ian Desmond – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20
195. Hideki Matsui – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.285
196. Bobby Jenks – 2010 Projections: 4-4/4.00/1.30/60, 35 saves
197. Kevin Correia – 2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135
198. Drew Stubbs – 2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35
199. Casey McGehee – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.280
200. Placido Polanco – 2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/10
201. Felipe Lopez – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.285/10
202. Chase Headley – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10
203. Russell Branyan – 2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240
204. James Loney – 2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4
205. Michael Brantley – 2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30
206. Chris Coghlan – 2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15
207. Franklin Gutierrez – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13
208. Paul Konerko – 2010 Projections:  55/24/75/.260
209. Carlos Guillen – 2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6
210. Ryan Ludwick – 2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3
211. Stephen Strasburg – 2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110
212. J.D. Drew – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275
213. Milton Bradley – 2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5
214. Mike Cameron – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14
215. Magglio Ordonez – 2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310
216. Edwin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140
217. Francisco Liriano – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155
218. Joe Blanton – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140
219. Krispie Young – 2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15
220. Nick Swisher – 2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255
221. Delmon Young – 2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7
222. Jair Jurrjens – 2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings
223. Matt Capps – 2010 Projections: 1-5/3.75/1.40/60, 30 saves
224. Chad Qualls – 2010 Projections: 1-3/3.55/1.20/50, 25 saves
225. Brad Lidge – 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves
226. Kerry Wood – 2010 Projections:  1-3/4.45/1.34/60, 24 saves
227. Brandon Lyon – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.65/1.28/60, 30 saves
228. Matt Lindstrom – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.45/1.38/55, 10 saves
229. Ryan Madson – 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves
230. Lastings Milledge – 2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12
231. Jason Heyward – 2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20
232. Desmond Jennings – 2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25
233. Austin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22
234. Jason Frasor – 2010 Projections:  6-2/3.65/1.28/60, 15 saves
235. Kyle Blanks – 2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3
236. Matt LaPorta – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275
237. Gerardo Parra – 2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10
238. Scott Kazmir – 2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145
239. Michael Saunders – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15
240. Scott Sizemore – 2010 Projections:  80/14/70/.275/16
241. Brett Anderson – 2010 Projections:  9-11/4.25/1.27/135
242. Ricky Romero – 2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155
243. Randy Wolf – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155
244. Ben Sheets – 2010 Projections:  8-9/3.55/1.26/120
245. Rich Harden – 2010 Projections: 7-5/3.75/1.22/130
246. Gavin Floyd – 2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175
247. Ramon Hernandez – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265
248. Eric Young Jr. – 2010 Projections:  65/1/40/.290/30
249. Jorge Cantu – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
250. Jermaine Dye - 2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260
251. Kurt Suzuki – 2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6
252. Martin Prado – 2010 Projections:  70/8/60/.305
253. Yadier Molina – 2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5
254. A.J. Pierzynski – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280
255. Ryan Doumit – 2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3
256. Orlando Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  80/10/75/.275/15
257. Mark DeRosa – 2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3
258. Todd Helton – 2010 Projections: 70/12/80/.315
259. John Danks – 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155
260. Derek Lowe – 2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100
261. J.A. Happ – 2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155
262. Rick Porcello – 2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75
263. Daisuke Matsuzaka – 2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150
264. Joel Pineiro – 2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90
265. Mark Buehrle – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125
266. Kelly Johnson – 2010 Projections:  85/15/65/.270/10
267. Huston Street – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.85/1.22/40, 15 saves
268. Manny Corpas – 2010 Projections:  2-4/4.35/1.32/45, 15 saves
269. Seth Smith – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10
270. Jake Fox – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250
271. Jon Rauch – 2010 Projections:  3-5/4.15/1.28/55, 25 Saves
272. Wade Davis – 2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160
273. Chris Tillman – 2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150
274. Brain Matusz – 2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145
275. Mat Latos – 2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125
276. Andy LaRoche – 2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3
277. Brandon Wood – 2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7
278. Matt Guerrier – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.75/1.20/60, 15 Saves
279. Scott Downs – 2010 Projections:  5-4/3.85/1.30/40, 12 saves
280. Chris Young – 2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145
281. Hiroki Kuroda – 2010 Projections: 9-6/3.65/1.24/100
282. Franklin Morales – 2010 Projections: 4-5/4.50/1.40/55, 8 saves
283. Aaron Harang – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140
285. Brad Penny – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110
286. Brandon Morrow – 2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100
287. Homer Bailey – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145
288. Ted Lilly – 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100
289. Aroldis Chapman – 2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70
290. Randy Wells – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130
291. Justin Masterson – 2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150
292. Erik Bedard – 2010 Projections:  3-5/3.55/1.28/85
293. Kelly Shoppach – 2010 Projections:  55/16/65/.245
294. Miguel Olivo – 2010 Projections:  30/16/45/.245
295. Jesus Flores – 2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250
296. Vernon Wells – 2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10
297. Jeff Francoeur – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5
298. Juan Rivera – 2010 Projections:  65/24/75
299. Cody Ross – 2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5/.280
300. Russell Martin – 2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

1. Albert Pujols – I’m man enough to admit I love Poo-Holes.  2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ready to have your mind blown?  Imagine if the Red Sox didn’t trade Hanley to the Marlins.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.320/25

3. Chase Utley – Gets the edge on A-Rod for his position and pomade.  2010 Projections:  110/32/105/.300/15

4. Alex Rodriguez – Jeter’s got the market cornered on hot Latinas while A-Rod’s rocking lame ass white girls, but, unfortunately, I can’t hold that against him for fantasy.  2010 Projections:  110/36/120/.310/15

5. Ryan Braun – If he can do what I think he’s capable of, he could be number one for 2011.  2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17

6. Mark Teixeira – Like LL, Tex just keeps doing and doing and doing it well.  2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305

7. Miguel Cabrera – He gives me the vibe he doesn’t care, but maturity does weird things to people.  Shoot, I used to shave my head, sag my Karl Kanis and wear purple sneakers.  If Cabrera can put forth 100%, he can be a force.  2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3

8. Matt Kemp – Man, I’m loving these 5-8 picks.  Can you dig it?  I knew you could.  2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32

9. Prince Fielder – If 40 homers is the key, then Fielder’s a lock.  2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285

10. Ryan Howard – Howard = Fielder + 5 homers – .010 on average.  2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275

11. Evan Longoria – I had a premonition that Longoria could steal 20 bases in 2010.  Might’ve been indigestion.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – From the files of Coincidences That Don’t Really Mean Anything, I ranked him 12th last year too.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – I don’t buy that Wright, Reyes or Johan are done.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and say to me you’re from the future and the Mets are in the playoffs, it wouldn’t shock me.  I’d assume they traded for three starters in July.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Matt Holliday – He’s a great average, solid power and moderate steal contributor.  In fantasy, that gets you 14th.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

15. Ian Kinsler – If he stays healthy again and has a lucky year for average, he can give you a season better than Utley.  But those are two decent-sized ifs.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

16. Troy Tulowitzki – As you can see from my projections — go ahead, look, this’ll be here — I think his steals come down from last year.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – When I say bounce… You say back.  Bounce… Back…  Bounce… Back… Pounce… Back– I said pounce, got ya.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Carl Crawford – I’ll be honest, I considered dropping Crawford a little further down, but the near-15 homers gets him ranked here.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

19. Adrian Gonzalez – Mind blowing time again.  Imagine Hanley and Adrian Gonzalez on the Red Sox.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

20. Jimmy Rollins – This is the last shortstop for a while.  Why?  Cause shortstops suck.  You’re best to not look at shortstops again until Andrus.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

21. Justin Morneau – I’m kinda all right on Morneau this year.  I’m not expecting 35 homers or any steals, but around 30/100/.290 is solid.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

22. Jacoby Ellsbury – Same that goes for Crawford.  Probably won’t own Ellsbury but the boy has speed and some slight power.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

23. Justin Upton – I like J-Upside this year, but, then again, everyone does.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

24. Felix Hernandez – Love, love, love F-Her.  Think he has multiple Cy Youngs in his arm.  But I probably won’t own him either.  Before I get a ton of comments about why would I rank someone somewhere and then say I wouldn’t own them.  I can’t own everyone.  It’s just impossible.  For instance, with my first two picks, I take Braun and Reyes, I’ll need a first baseman.  If I take Hanley and A-Gon, I’ll need an outfielder.  If I take A-Rod and Sizemore, I’ll need a first baseman.  It’s just the way I assemble a team.  I’m not going to draft a starter third UNLESS — yes, Mr. Caps, that’s for emphasis — Lincecum’s still around in the third round then I won’t be able to turn that down.  But that doesn’t mean F-Her isn’t ranked here.  If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.  Also, technically I would own F-Her if he were around after I drafted, say, Braun, Reyes and Votto.  But he won’t be.  2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

25. Zack Greinke – More or less the same gist as F-Her.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

26. Roy Halladay – Halladay could easily be the top rated starter at the end of the year.  He’s not listed first because the guys above beat him in Ks and age.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

27. Joe Mauer – He’s ranked 28th because I know he’ll be gone before he gets to here.  Consider it a preemptive strike.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

28. Ryan Zimmerman – I see Zimmerman moving into the 2nd round for 2011.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

29. Kevin Youkilis – When a player gets to 30 years old and has failed to reach 30 homers, it’s pretty safe to say he’s probably not getting there.  The Greek God of 27 Homers and a Near-.300 Average.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

30. CC Sabathia – I had this wild dream the other day.  I was watching a Yankee game where CC was on the mound but instead of CC it was Prop Joe.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

31. Mark Reynolds – Flip over your your pocket-sized Chinese food take out calender, 2009 was the Year of the Mini Donkey, not 2010.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

32. Joey Votto – If you don’t know how I feel about Votto at this point, you haven’t been reading the site.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

33. Curtis Granderson – His average will come up and the homers will fly in the Boogie Down.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

34. Jayson Werth – In any different lineup or park, I’d be worried about Werth ranked this high.  Plus, he’s a 5 time Intercontinental Champion.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

35. Jose Reyes – It’s not great that he’s starting the year on the DL, but Mauer did it last year and A-Rod and Utley…  It’s a long season, if you can get Reyes at a discount, go for it.  2010 Projections:  105/11/55/.285/45

36. B.J. Upton – Don’t believe last year’s average.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

37. Brandon Phillips – Steady contributor at a weak position.  2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22

38. Brian Roberts – I’m worried at some point Roberts is going to get old.  He’ll be 32 in twenty-ten.  Might happen.  2010 Projections:  105/13/75/.285/30

39. Dustin Pedroia – Member the battles I fought last year for telling people Pedroia wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick?  Yeah, those people went into the shadows like Orson Welles in The Third Man.  2010 Projections:  110/15/70/.305/15

40. Robinson Cano – Entering the magical 27 year old season and his high average is not a trick.  (A trick is something a whore does for money.)  2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5

41. Brian McCann – I probably won’t own McCann outside of two catcher leagues, but I am more pro-McCann than most ‘perts.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

42. Victor Martinez – V-Mart at first base is kinda eh.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

43. Ichiro Suzuki – Great average, but I don’t pay for average.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

44. Jason Bay – I don’t think Metco kills a player’s value, but it’s definitely not Fenway.  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

45. Johan Santana – I don’t think Metco makes a pitcher’s value, but it’s Johan.  Falling K-rate, schmalling K-rate.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

46. Adam Lind – I understand people not being crazy for Lind because of his position, but don’t be not crazy for him because you think his power is fluky.  Yes, that was a triple negative.  Those are okay.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

47. Josh Hamilton – Hey, it’s my old whipping boy.  I like him this year.  See, it wasn’t personal.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

48. Andre Ethier – I’m basically stocking my outfield with these rankings.  Say what you want about depth, but it’s not that deep when every team needs 5 of them.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

49. Derek Jeter – Last year’s slight boost in power makes sense, but the huge increase in speed won’t carry over.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

50. Justin Verlander – Just don’t abandon ship when he starts the season poorly.  2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

51. Dan Haren – Abandon ship when the clock strikes July.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

52. Jon Lester – If it means taking a starter in the 5th round, so be it.  But I’m looking to own Lester on at least one team in 2010.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

53. Adam Wainwright – Hmm… Where are the top starters?  This seems off.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

54. Carlos Quentin – Charlie Quentin is talented, the health is the issue.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

55. Nelson Cruz – His projections say he should be above even Hamilton and Ethier but I have my trepidations that Cruz could revert to being the guy that couldn’t get out of the minors.  Unlike my other trepidations, this one feels less warranted.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

56. Adam Jones – Why is Adam Jones being drafted after players like Manny?  Point your right foot thumbkin up and point your left foot thumbkin down.  Right is Jones, left is Manny.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

57. Nick Markakis – I do think Markakis is talented, but I’d sure like to see a year of 25+ homers before drafting him as my first outfielder.  Shoot, I’d take just 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

58. Pablo Sandoval – I’m probably lower on Sandoval than most, but I don’t think 25 homers was a jumping off point but more of a ceiling.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

59. Aaron Hill – I don’t buy 2009 at all, so I’m not touching him where lots of ‘perts are.  2010 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/5

60. Kendry Morales – If he’s 26 years old, I’ll shave the ‘stache.  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

61. Adam Dunn – 40, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38… Even if it’s 36 in 2010, he’s still worth the average.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

62. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed the last month of the season.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

63. Shin-Soo Choo – Throw Choo, Abreu, Victorino and Hunter into a big, over-sized hat and pick out one for your team.  They’re all relatively the same.  More speed here, less average there.  More pop here, less speed there.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

64. Bobby Abreu – How is he fast and Miguel Cabrera slow when they both have the same body type?  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

65. Shane Victorino – Now that Crapolanco shoved him down the order, I anticipate yelling at the TV screen, “Stop bunting over Victorino!”  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

66. Torii Hunter – He hasn’t stolen more than 20 bases in a season since 2004.  Cust kayin’.  cus2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

67. Carlos Lee – Could be more valuable than Lind, but where’s the excitement in that?  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

68. Ben Zobrist – With Zobrist, Jacoby Ellsbury and Zimmerman, it’s a renaissance for players whose names sound Jewish but are not.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12

69. Chone Figgins – If you have a team where your 2nd baseman and shortstop  have pop — think Uggla and Tulo — I could see Figgins.  But the dearth of power at 3rd could kill your entire team.  I opt for steals in the latter rounds at MI.  Think Everth Cabrera.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

70. Cole Hamels – He paid last year for being overworked in 2008.  This year he makes up for it.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

71. Josh Johnson – Last year, he had a sub-3 ERA until August 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

72. Cliff Lee – The Adverb is about as safe as they come, but he gets ranked here because he’s not a huge strikeout threat.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

73. Ubaldo Jimenez – Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

74. Derrek Lee – Lee’s not a 35 homer hitter like last year.  He’s a 24 to 27 homer hitter.  My apologies to Cubs fans, Derrek Lee’s family and anyone else I might have hurt with my words.  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295/3

75. Ricky Nolasco – Love the K/BB and badass name.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

76. Josh Beckett – What can be said about Red State Jeter that hasn’t already been said?  Sounds like a rhetorical, but really what?  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

77. Clayton Kershaw – I took down my Ron LeFlore door poster and put up Clayton Kershaw.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

78. Denard Span – Probably the least exciting name on the top 100 (though Uggla’s a close second).  Span’s numbers aren’t that far off from Victorino.  Call him Feign Victorino.  I might need to do a Sleeper post about Denard Dawg.  That’ll draw some eyeballs. /sarcasm  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

79. Alfonso Soriano – Free swingers don’t age well.  Speedsters with leg problems don’t run much.  Still 20/10 seems to be about his floor.  There’s value in that.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

80. Alex Rios – Rios is like buying a Chia Pet.  You’re excited when you buy it.  Seems like a fun idea.  Then you get home, never water it and it goes 8-for-75.  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

81. Chris Carpenter – As I mentioned in the top 20 starters, I’m avoiding Carp, Yovani and Peavy.  Ergo, I switched the order in this top 100.  Ergo, Yovani and Peavy didn’t even make the top 100.  Ergo, I have no idea if I’m using ergo correctly.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

82. Manny Ramirez – I’m not going to be able to get Manny this late and that’s by design.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

83. Matt Wieters – Dreamy without the Brady Anderson sideburns.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

84. Gordon Beckham – I’m typing this with my toes as I do sit-ups.  That’s how much I like Beckham.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

85. Raul Ibanez – Sorta in the same boat as Werth, but older.  I.e., if Ibanez were on a different team in a different lineup, I’d have no problem lowering him.  Hitting in Citizens Bank behind Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard and Werth is not a bad place to be.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

86. Carlos Beltran – I don’t feel comfortable with this ranking and could see skipping right over Beltran if I were drafting in early March.  I need to know more about his condition.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

87. Jason Bartlett – If you haven’t seen Charlie Bartlett, I’d avoid it.  And Jason Bartlett.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

87. Joe Nathan – UPDATE:  He’s done, put a fork in him. 2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

88. Jonathan Papelbon – There’s no way I’m getting one of these closers this late in a draft.  That’s all right, cause I don’t want them. But as more and more fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term) become better informed, closers are starting to fall lower and lower.  Continued thought in Rivera’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

89. Mariano Rivera – If this trend continues then I may have to tell people to start drafting closers because at a certain point there’s value with them.  Continued thought in Broxton’s blurb.  2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

90. Jonathan Broxton – Hmm… No, that’s about all I wanted to say about that.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

91. Michael Young – Old is as Young does.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

92. Aramis Ramirez – Kinda wanted to drop Aramis out of the top 100, but his position saves him.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

93. Dan Uggla – According to Uggla, Hanley doesn’t give it his all.  Uggla should see if he can have some of whatever it is Hanley is holding back.  2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3

94. Wandy Rodriguez – I’ve said this before so skip ahead if you’ve already heard this from me… Then again you might not know what I’m going to say until I say it… Anyhoo!  Weird how some people break out and no one believes it while others break out and they shoot up the rankings.  Wandy was solid last year; his only concern is health.  If healthy, he’s fine.  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

95. Chad Billingsley – Same boat as Hamels with less WHIP potential.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

96. Heath Bell – First closer I could see myself owning.  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

97. Lance Berkman – Unlike beef, going from prime to aged isn’t great.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

98. Billy Butler -  Upside and luscious moobs.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

99. Ian Stewart – I wanted to end the top 100 with Stewart cause I’m crushing hard.  To read more about him, go directly to my Ian Stewart fantasy.  If you see wavy lines like in a dream sequence, it’s completely normal.  2010 Projections:  85/29/100/.260/10

This first version is based solely on CHONE projections except for Saves which we added (CHONE doesn’t estimate saves).

In late February/early March, we’ll add ZiPS projections and reweight the projections based on the latest playing time expectations.  If a certain player looks high/low, you should consider the plate appearances.  For example, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone ranking Orlando Cabrera ahead of Jason Bartlett.  But Cabrera is projected at 87 more plate appearances (631 vs. 544) which helps pad his R/HR/RBI/SB totals.  The impact that playing time can have is even more dramatic when looking at starting pitcher value.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players.  Besides providing a basis for rating players, Point Shares provide quick estimates as to a player’s impact to your overall team points and compare across categories – e.g., Ichiro’s contributes 1.3 points in SB vs. the average OF and -1.3 points in HRs vs. the average OF.

Here are the basics:

• Point shares represent a player’s estimated impact on an average team’s points versus the average drafted player at his position.  So in a 12 team league, the ‘average drafted SS’ would be between the 9th and 10th valued SS (12 starting SS, 6 slotted for 2B/SS) and the average team would get 65 points (6.5 per category if 12 is top and 1 is bottom).    For example, Hanley Ramirez’s 9.69 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.69 points more to the average team than the average stats for SS in a 12-team MLB league and move the team up to 74.69 points.

• Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category.  Hanley Ramirez’s 9.69 Point Shares break out as: 2.4 Runs, 1.7 HRs, 1.0 RBI, 2.5 SB, and 2.1 AVG.

• The assumed roster makeup is C/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/5 OF/Util/9P.  The assumed number of SPs and RPs per team are 5.5 to 3.5.  The UTIL slot is manned by DH and some OF, 1B, and 3B.

• Players are ranked based on the position in which they are judged most valuable and are 20 games eligible. The order of most valuable to least valuable for positions is: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.

• Player value is primarily driven by positional comparisons (75% for hitters, 85% for pitchers) with the remained based on the average hitter/pitcher.  Batting Average, ERA, and WHIP are adjusted based on a player’s ABs/IPs (e.g., the more ABs/IPs, the greater a positive/negative impact it has for a fantasy team).

Here are some answers to some common questions:

1) Why do SPs rank higher in Point Shares than they are typically drafted? (e.g., 10 of top 20 in final 2009 PS, 2 of top 3 for 2010)

The best pitchers generally dominate 4 categories (W, K, ERA, WHIP).  While they don’t contribute in Saves, there is little opportunity cost to this since saves are concentrated in 30-40 players and there are 90+ pitching roster spots (108 for 12 team).  For hitters, it’s rare for a player to be excellent across more than 3 categories and there’s a larger opportunity cost for the categories they are not great (i.e., OFs like Ichiro and Taveras hurt HR/RBI).  Note that only 8 players in 2010 are projected to be average or better for their position in all 5 stats (Hanley, Pujols, Braun, Wright, Holliday, A-Rod, Kemp, Beltran).

Here’s another way of looking at it.  If you converted Zack Greinke’s 2009 season to an OF (W=R, HR=SO, RBI=WHIP, SB=SV, AVG=ERA), his line would have been 103 /40/108/11 /.367.   Lincecum and Felix Hernandez weren’t too far off this.  The reason why it’s usually not advisable to draft a pitcher in the 1st round is the unpredictability of who’ll be the top pitchers vs. their true value.  Here’s a more thorough explanation of a pitcher’s fantasy value.

2) Why are Point Shares based off value over an average player versus a replacement player?

There are several ‘real’ baseball metrics that value a player against ‘replacement players’ including Baseball Prospectus’ VORP and Sean Smith’s WAR.  These take position into account as the offensive value of a replacement-level 2B is going to be less than than an OF.

Point Shares uses ‘average player’ for two reasons:

a) ‘Replacement Player’ in fantasy baseball doesn’t properly estimate positional value

Fantasy baseball has two key differences that converge the replacement level for all positions to a similar offensive value:  1) The number of players selected per position varies in fantasy baseball (e.g., 1 C / 5 OF) vs. real baseball (1 C / 3 OF) and 2) The Utility position which disproportionately grabs 1B/OF given their greater hitter depth.

Note:  UTIL distribution is estimated

The below chart shows how the value of hitters converges across all positions by the time you reach  ‘Replacement Value’ or, in other words, the Free Agency wire.  If there are any inequities where a certain position has greater depth, the UTIL slot will exploit it (and that doesn’t even account for Bench).  So if one used a true ‘replacement value’ estimate by position, there would be little to no positional adjustment despite the fact that, all statistical equal, a player with C, 2B, or SS eligibility is more valuable than someone with 1B or OF eligibility.   By using ‘average’ player value, the differences in offensive value among the top-end players can be taken into account providing a better reflection of a player’s value vs. the players owned on your competitors’ teams.

Note:  Based on 2009 data with value estimated by using Tom Tango’s formula of HR + SB + (H – .27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3

b) Point Shares estimates a player’s impact on the average team vs. their impact on a replacement-level team.

Let’s say it’s draft day in a 12 team MLB league and your team looks like a keg-league softball team.  All power, no SBs.  There is no doubt that, should you keep that roster, you will finish first in HRs and last in SBs.  If you trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury, you may see no impact in HR/RBI and gain 6 points in SB.  If the other team was built like a Herzog-era Cardinals team, they might see a lift in HR/RBI with little to no impact on SBs.

These are extreme cases of course.  It’s rare that a random team is destined to be in last place for a statistic (random meaning that we’re not talking about a specific team that was on auto-pilot for draft day or is managed by that doofus in your office) .  So let’s say the odds are 11-1 a team in a 12-team league would finish last in a statistic.  It wouldn’t make sense to value Ellsbury’s SBs the way that the most SB-desperate team would value them, right?

Well, that would be precisely the way a ‘replacement-level’ methodology would look at it.

If we look at things from an average perspective, you would give equal probability that a team would finish in 1st place through 12th place for each stat.  If the best team is at 120 points and the worst at 10 points, the average team is at 65 points ((120+10)/2)  or 6.5 points per category.  For a team to have 6.5 points per category, we need to assume they are average at every position vs. has a replacement-level player.

3) What is the highest/lowest score possible?

Theoretically, the best/worst possible Point Shares score for a category would be +/- 5.5 pts in each category (moving someone from 6.5 to 12 or 1).  Any other league size, just divide the team total by 2 and subtract 0.5 (10 team = 4.5).  A simpler way of looking at it would be to consider how one would calculate the average value per team of a player with 50 SBs.  For the team that’s 1st in SBs, his value is 0.  For the 2nd team, it could be worth +1.  Take this to its logical conclusion and you get (0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11)/12.  That’s 66/12 = 5.5.

Note:  The highest points within a single category in 2010 Point Shares v1 is Jacoby Ellsbury’s 3.6 points in SB.

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1. Matt Thornton – Last year Marmol was number one; this year we go to the South Side.  Not only do I think he steps in for Jenks before the season is through but I also think he puts up fantastic numbers with his purdy K-rate.  2010 Projections:  5-1/2.70/1.05/80, 18 Holds, 15 Saves

2. Fernando Rodney – Will there be guys with better ratios?  Yes.  Isn’t the whole point of being a MR. B is for ratio help?  Yeah, but who’s kicking vulture saves out of bed?  Rodney’s high ranking is predicated on the chance Fuentes loses the job.  2010 Projections:  3-5/4.25/1.35/65, 15 Holds, 12 Saves

3. Scott Downs/Jason Frasor – Frasor should be the closer, could be Downs, but Gregg was just brought in.   You know how sometimes you don’t remember what you did with your keys?  Okay, now imagine you’re Cito Gaston and choosing a closer is the keys.  Downs’s 2010 Projections:  4-2/2.75/1.24/55, 22 Holds, 7 Saves, Frasor’s 2010 Projections: 6-3/3.05/1.22/60, 12 Saves

4. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain – This will be a Spring Training decision for the Yankees and fantasy owners.  The one in the bullpen may actually end up with more value than the one in the rotation.  Projections will come once it’s decided, but expect a lot of Ks and Holds, but not a lot of Saves.

5. Takashi Saito – Member how well he pitched as the Dodgers closer?  Yeah, we can see all that again.  Even if we don’t, he’s proved to be a valuable MR.  2010 Projections:  6-2/2.35/1.24/60, 22 Holds, 5 Saves

6. Matt Lindstrom – It’s anyone’s guess who will be worse in the Astros bullpen, Lindstrom or Lyon.  One will probably get 25 saves and the other will probably get 12.  My guess is Lyon will be the one with 25.  Lindstrom’s for save vultures, not better ratio seekers.  2010 Projections:  2-4/4.40/1.40/50, 15 Holds, 12 Saves

7. Jason Motte – Motte’s ERA should come down from last year and he might get a look as the closer (though I have my doubts on the last point as explained in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball post).  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.30/1.28/60, 17 Holds, 3 Saves

8. Matt Guerrier – If this list were simply about Holds, Guerrier would be top 3.  2010 Projections:  4-3/3.55/1.22/50, 22 Holds

9. Drew Storen – I can’t tell you how disappointed I am that the Nats signed Crapps.  Oh wait, I can:  very.  I think Storen can be lights out as the Nats closer right now, but we won’t see him until midseason at the earliest.  This is more a heads up for deep leagues or keepers.  2010 Projections:  1-3/2.00/.90/35, 7 Holds, 3 Saves

10. Franklin Morales – Since he has a Cuddle Boy and a closer labeled “Fragile” in front of him, Morales will probably see some saves.  2010 Projections:  3-3/3.75/1.38/50, 10 Holds, 10 Saves

11. J.P. Howell – Thurston and Lovey’s son is mentioned, but Wheeler and Balfour could also be included because once Soriano goes down with an injury (and he probably will) there will be a vacuum at the closer spot.  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.18/70, 10 Holds, 5 Saves

12. Michael Wuertz – This is more of a gut call, but I think Bailey falters.  Yes, Ziegler’s also there.  Hey, aren’t we all entitled to our nonsensical projections? 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.15/1.35/85, 15 Holds, 10 Saves

13. Chris Perez – Kerry Wood’s all, “I’m a pro!  You can’t get with my stuff!  Ow, I have tendinitis.”  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.75/1.30/60, 10 Holds, 3 Saves

14. George Sherrill – As I said back in October, “From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.25/1.25/55, 20 Holds

15. Joel Hanrahan – Octavio Dotel will probably be the best value closer in terms of his ADP when he’s healthy, but Dotel’s 36 years old with a history of elbow problems.  That sounds like a recipe found on Worst Cooks in America. (What, you’re too cool to admit to watching The Food Network?  I know why Anne Burrell always wears a skirt.  So she’s not confused with Guy Fieri.) 2010 Projections:  2-4/4.25/1.40/75, 10 Holds, 5 Saves

16. Sergio Romo – Unless you’re a Giants fan, you’re probably wondering why I’m ranking Tony Romo’s fashion line, Sergio Romo.  His stuff isn’t overpowering but his K-rate is sorta ridunkulous.  Lots of risk with Romo, but if he can continue to baffle hitters he could be a nice find.  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.05/1.00/65, 10 Holds

17. Jim Johnson – I’m confident in Mike Gonzalez’s ability to get saves, but I’m never confident in his manager’s confidence in him.  I really think people in baseball look at his numbers on paper and think, “Great, we have ourselves a cheap closer!”  Then they watch him pitch and they suddenly think, “Wait, he’s a lefty?  Lefties can’t close.”  2010 Projections:  2-6/3.85/1.35/45, 15 Holds, 5 Saves

18. C.J. Wilson – I don’t completely buy the ERA or K-rate last year, but he has experience as a closer and Francisco’s prone to injury.  2010 Projections:  5-4/4.20/1.35/60, 15 Holds, 7 Saves

19. Joel Zumaya – This is more of a flier than anything.  If he finally makes good on his promise, he’ll have more value than most guys on this list.  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.60/1.40/45, 15 Holds

20. Danys Baez – He’s pretty dreadful, but so is the Phils bullpen.  If Baez were on any other team, he wouldn’t be in the top 20… Or top 40 for that matter. 2010 Projections:  3-6/4.50/1.35/45, 12 Holds, 5 Saves

After the top 20 middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but this one stands out:

Daniel Bard – I don’t see Bard getting any saves unless Papelbon gets hurt krumping.  Bard could still, however, be the most valuable middle reliever with his wicked fastball.  (Wicked is being used here to add emphasis.  Example, “Mary Sullivan’s so hawt.  She barfed all over a Havahd kid.  What a wicked pissah.  I think I love her.”  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.15/1.25/85, 20 Holds

1. Joe Nathan – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Broxton.  I call this tier, “These guys will be awesome.  Don’t own them.”  Commandment number one — SAGNOF.  In this case, it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face.  Means that if Jose Mesa makes a comeback for the Nationals and he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning.  Wherever saves are coming from, they’re good saves.  We do not discriminate.  So why pay for Nathan when there’s, say, Jose Valverde?  (To be continued in Papelbon’s blurb)  2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

2. Jonathan Papelbon – Because, in the end, all you care about is saves.  Sure, a closer with a great ERA and WHIP can help bring down your overall ratios, but unless your luck is terrible you’re not going to have 4 Lidges on your staff.  Besides one decent starter can outweigh the damage of a Matt Capps or Qualls.  Here’s one example where I owned Lidge last year.  (Continued in the Rivera blurb.) 2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – I drafted Lidge and Heath Bell and grabbed Wolf off of waivers.  (This was a 16 team ‘pert league so it was doable in your league too.)  In their combined 342 2/3 innings, I got a 3.54 ERA.  That’s not killing your team.  Sure, if I didn’t have Lidge, it would’ve been better, but even the worst closers aren’t that bad overall.   2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

4. Jonathan Broxton – His splits were terrible (for his pants), but I think Broxton will be just fine and, frankly, I’m not too concerned because he strikes out so many guys.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

5. Heath Bell – This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.”  As for Bell, maybe it’s the lack of a decent set-up man, maybe it’s the home park, but Bell instills a lot of confidence.  (We should’ve all seen this coming the moment the Mets traded him away for a mint condition Gregg Jefferies rookie card and decided to pay K-Rod 16 billion.)  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

6. Carlos Marmol – “Grey, would you please introduce yourself to the group?”  “My name is Grey Albright and I’m a K addict.  Oh, and are there any more crullers?”  2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves

7. Francisco Rodriguez – I had a dilemma ranking K-Rod.  I think he’ll be fine for 40 saves and good enough peripherals, but he always worries me.  Not to mention his K-rate.  What’s up with 12 K/9, 10.1 K/9 and 9.7 K/9 in the last three years?  He should be fine in 2010, but I wouldn’t be surprised in a few years if he becomes iffy as he reaches his 30th birthday.  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves

8. Joakim Soria – I worry when I see he’s being drafted on average before the 100th pick overall.  Is Soria great?  No doubt, Gwen.  But he still had shoulder issues last year and he’s on the Royals.  2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves

9. David Aardsma – To think I once thought it was a harbinger of doom that you couldn’t spell Aardsma without Double-A.  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves

10. Jose Valverde – Do I think the Tigers needed The JoVa?  N to the izzo O.  But if he’s healthy, he gets the job done.  He works.  2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves

11. Brian Wilson – Here’s what I said in October, “What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – This has nothing to do with Francisco, but whatever happened to Chad Cordero?  First Dontrelle, then Shawn Chacon then Chad Cordero… What a bunch of flat-billed pitchypusses.  F-Cord had a bit of a lucky season last year, but he’s still a lock for 35 saves thereabouts.  BTW, if anyone ever says thereabouts in real life, punch them in their nose.  2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves

13. Huston Street – Street can easily out pitch some of the names above him on this list, but I don’t trust him to stay healthy.  2010 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.00/55, 25 saves

14. Rafael Soriano – When he pitches, he’s lights out.  The only problem is he has a lot of guys to step in for him when he gets injured.  Could be the number one ranked closer at the end of the year or could be injured in May and lose the job to J.P. Wheelerfour.  2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves

15. Billy Wagner – Wagner seems like a perfect fit for a manager like Bobby Cox.  An Old Boy’s Club, so to speak.  Or not to speak, but to read.  If Wagner can stay healthy, I could see him easily getting to 35 saves.  2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves

16. Brian Fuentes – I have a feeling that the Fuentes/Rodney shituation is going to get worse before it gets better.  The first closer I see losing their job is Bailey, but the second is Fuentes.  2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – Yes, I have Bailey ranked lower than most other ‘perts.  Bailey is great so don’t take this the wrong way, but if he pitches poorly in April he’ll be replaced quicker than you could say, “Wait, I took Bailey as my first closer!”  2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves

18. Ryan Franklin – Probably everyone’s favorite to lose the job first, and it could happen.  Only reassurance I can give you is Tony LaDrunkass trusts in his vets.  2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves

19. Leo Nunez – I know you worry about Nunez, but check out some of the cheap schmohawk closers that have succeeded for the Marlins — Kevin Gregg, Lindstrom, Borowoski and Todd Jones.  A veritable who’s who of what’s-his-faces.  2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves

20. Frank Francisco – This low because he was so frustrating to own last year.  He’s the closer–No, C.J. Wilson is.  He’s closing–No, Wilson still is.  He’s closing– Oh, forget it.  2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves

After the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these stand out:

Ryan Madson/Brad Lidge – Lidge is aiming to be ready for the start of the season, but, after last year, Lidge can’t get nearly as many chances to screw up.  Madson hasn’t been great either as a closer so don’t overrate him.  The Phils also brought in Danys Baez to suck.  Madson could get 40 saves, Lidge could get 40 saves, Danys Baez… Well, I won’t go that far.  This could get very ugly or pay huge dividends.  Madson’s 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves; Lidge’s 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves

Matt Capps – Yeah, he’s the Nats closer, but whatevs.  I could’ve listed any closer in this last spot and that’s the point.  If a guy is getting saves, you draft them.  I don’t care if your momma’s getting saves, I’m drafting her.  Or worse, Kevin Gregg.  2010 Projections:  Saves

61. Benrich Shardard – This is a one person pormanteau/tier made of three players:  Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard and Rich Harden.  I call this tier, “Together they’re starting 30 games and vying for a Cy Young.”  They’re some of my favorite pitchers to watch when they’re healthy, but, well, ya know.  (Here’s more on Ben Sheets.)  2010 Projections:  Combined 180-day DL

62. Gavin Floyd – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Danks.  I call this tier, “White Sox starters that I’m respectively excited about, lukewarm over and cold on.”  Would you believe I’m endorsing Gavin Floyd? As De Niro said in the Spider scene, “What’s the world coming to?!”  Floyd made positive gains in K-rate and walk rate while throwing less of his fastball and more of his slider.  Whatever works, Yellnikoff.  I’m not predicting Floyd’s going to be a Cy Young contender, but real late you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175

63. Mark Buehrle – Buerhrle’s what they used to call plump prostitutes in the early 1800s, a work horse, but horse was spelled different.  I have no problem owning Buerhle on certain teams, but you’re not getting the perfect game pitcher or the 6 runs in 5 inning one.  Somewhere in the middle like Monie Love.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125

64. John Danks -  He’s the opposite of Floyd.  It’s almost like the gains Floyd made were taken from Danks.  Weird!  2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155

65. Wade Davis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Latos.  I call this tier, “They’re going to be good ones, but right now they’re more or less rookie pitchers.”  The nice thing about Davis, even more so than Feliz and Strasburg, who appeared in the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, is he may actually give you close to a complete season.  He could throw close to 200 innings without turning his career over to Dr. Freeze.  The bad is his walks haven’t been great.  2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160

66. Chris Tillman – As I explained in the Double Stuff Orioles post, I’m not a huge fan of rookie pitchers.  Technically, Tillman’s not a rookie, but more or less the same applies.  The more is they can still be very up and down.  The less is they have some major league time under their belt and can begin to pitch up to their capability.  Let’s continue this in Matusz’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150

67. Brian Matusz – As I was saying, if they get up to their capability then they shoot up the rankings and become far more valuable.  So you have to weigh how much upside you want from your last starter.  I already went over my Matusz fantasy.  2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145

68. Mat Latos – Ah, sweet, sweet, HodgePadre.  He has a sick, as in healthy, K-rate in the minors.  But, as the kids used to say when I was a kid, he’s hella young.  Hey, I’m Old Hella.  2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125 in 20 starts.

69. Chris Young – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Penny.  I call this tier, “Vets that probably won’t see a resurgence, but they can add some much needed stability to the back of a staff.”  Young may be the Padres number one starter, but that’s like being the tallest dwarf.  Cristal Young had a 91 MPH fastball when he made his debut in 2004 with the Rangers.  In 2009, he was regularly clocked at 85.  At 91, you can leave it in the upper part of the strikezone.  At 85, not so much.  Not to mention, every guy he walks gets an automatic double.  Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.  2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145

70. Hiroki Kuroda – He doesn’t K many guys or stay healthy, but he manages to keep his ratios in check.  Good name to look at late.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100

71. Aaron Harang – I read somewhere some genius was saying something about Chris Young, “Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.”  Same could be said about Harang.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155

72. Bronson Arroyo – Trade for him in July.  Look at his splits to see what I’m talking about it.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140

73. John Maine – I wish I could tell you he’s more than a big question mark, but he’s not.  If he looks good in spring training, I could see him going up draft sheets.  But I could also see him pitching well in April then going down with shoulder problems.  2010 Projections:  9-8/4.15/1.32/85 in 105 innings.

74. Brad Penny – Penny’s my least favorite type of starter.  Overweight with an STD from Alyssa Milano? No, random italicized voice.  Penny’s devoid of Ks and upside.  He should be perfectly meh in the NL while Dave Duncan sprinkles pixie dust on his melon.  Penny might even be great for stretches like he was in San Fran in September of last year.  He also had an obscene BABIP in San Fran.  He’s a mid-4 ERA pitcher.  It’s meh, but sometimes meh is what the doctor ordered.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110

75. Brandon Morrow - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Eh, may as well end this sucker on a good note.”  These pitchers aren’t exactly exciting, but compared to some other names on this list, they’re a’ight.  As most of you know, when in doubt, I’m going for NL starters at the end of a draft.  Then there’s Morrow.  There’s very few starters you’re getting this late that can pitch as well as Morrow.  Can he stay healthy?  Aw, heck’s no.  Does he walk far too many hitters?  Uh, yeah.  Still decent endgame gamble if he starts strong and you can flip him.  2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100

76. Homer Bailey – Do I think there’s a chance that you’ll draft him and drop him before May?  Yeah, probably.  But it’s a flier, that’s what fliers are for.  You can always grab someone off waivers if Bailey doesn’t work out.  Ringing endorsement, huh?  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145

77. Ted Lilly – Lilly just feels safe.  Not safe for a 3.10 ERA again.  Not safe for 180 Ks again.  Not safe for 17 wins again.  Not safe to start the season healthy because of an injured shoulder.  But safe.  Hmm, maybe not safe, but I’d stash him on the DL for April to see what he can do when he returns.  2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100

78. Aroldis Chapman – Already went over my Aroldis Chapman fantasy.  2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70

79. Randy Wells – Not one of my all-time favorite types of upside picks because there’s not many strikeouts here.  On the bright side, there’s very few walks too.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130

80. Justin Masterson – Masterson’s heat died when he left the Sons of Sam Horns’ hornet nest, but that doesn’t mean something’s wrong with him.  He induces groundballs and gets strikeouts, that’s not a combo that should be scoffed at.  Even if the only people that scoff at something are in Merchant-Ivory films.  2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150

After the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a ton of names, but here’s two that stand out.  One not good, one great:

Trevor Cahill – Cahill had a huge innings bump from ’08 to ’09 and he has no Ks.  Than, but no than.  2010 Projections:  8-12/4.50/1.40/80

Jonathan Sanchez – I’m a big fan of Jonathan Sanchez. Might end up owning him on multiple teams.  As Fonzie’s horse said, “Nay!”  I might own him on every team.  May draft him in a couple of AL-Only leagues just to keep snitches honest.  I wrote an entire post already about my Jonathan Sanchez fantasy.  He. Is. Dazzling.  That’s right, I brought out the tooly one word sentence gimmick to make a point.  This Sanchez isn’t dirty, he’s filthy.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200 <–optimistic, but you’re not paying me to be conservative.  In fact, this shizz is free.

41. Clay Buchholz – This is a continuation of the last tier on the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  This tier ends at Strasburg.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  Some might be confused by Cueto ranking before Buchholz, so let’s compare those two.  As linguists intended it, we’ll go B before C.  In 2009, K/9 — 6.65 vs. 6.93, BB/9 — 3.52 vs. 3.20, 25 years old vs. 23 years old, 190 2/3 career MLB innings vs. 345 1/3 IP.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155

42. Ervin Santana – Ervin’s 2009 was similar to Scott Baker’s.  He came out of spring training with an arm injury, but, unlike Baker and Stella, Ervin never found his groove.  This late in drafts I’m willing to overlook Ervin’s Gorilla Ponson impersonation last year.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185

43. Neftali Feliz – Already went over my Neftali fantasy.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120 in 20 starts.

44. Jorge de la Rosa – His appearance in this tier is solely because of his Ks.  Don’t believe me?  Throw your computer out the window, there’s no talking to you.  And to think we were friends.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200

45. Brett Anderson – Brett Anderson, the future ace, is not without caveats in 2010.  Innings jump was big in 2009.  The reason why I’m willing to take a late flier on him instead of, say, Hanson is because Anderson will come much cheaper in drafts.  Second caveat, Anderson really only had two months where he looked like an ace.  Though those two months were in the 2nd half.  If Hughes is in the rotation, I would switch these two.  So, I would take a shot on Anderson late, but I’d also be aware of the risk.  2010 Projections:  10-11/3.70/1.27/165

46. Phil Hughes – Won’t know until spring training, but my guess is it will be Joba in the rotation and Phil Hughes as a top 20 middle reliever.  Even if Hughes gets the starting spot, I could see him being limited on a strict innings count.  2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130 in 130 innings.

47. Joba Chamberlain – About time the Yankees take the ignition lock breathalyzer off the steering wheel and let Joba take his arm out for a drive.  Or put him in middle relief.  As of post time, it’s not clear yet.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160

48. Stephen Strasburg – Already went over my Strasburg fantasy.  The reason why I have him after Feliz is because of the kid gloves the Nats are going to be using with him.  The reason why I have him above some known commodities is because if he somehow breaks camp with the Nats, you’ve won the draft lottery.  Right after the announcement, you’d be able to trade Strasburg for a tidy haul.  Say, Billy Butler.  Now twirl your mustache!  2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110

49. Edwin Jackson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Romero.  I call this tier, “Guys that I’m not drafting, but might pick up on waivers during the season if the opportunity presents itself and it probably will.”  When Edwin Jackson was traded, I said I might own him in the right circumstances.  I’m officially retracting that.  On closer inspection, I don’t want anything to do with him outside of matchups.  I was clouded by the thought of facing the Giants and Padres, but he was far too lucky last year.  I don’t think Edwin will be quite the 2nd half pitcher he was last year — 5.07 ERA — but I think that’s closer than the pitcher he was in the first half — 2.52 ERA.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him have completely ownable stretches, but overall meh.  2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140

50. Joe Blanton – I owned Blanton for a good stretch last year.  Looking at my active stats, in 81 2/3 innings, Blanton gave me 6 wins, 3.31/1.18/59.  Awesome, terrific, adjective, but Blanton’s a pitcher you get off waivers.  You don’t draft Joe Blanton.  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140

50 1/2. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATE:  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar having an MRI in the preseason is reason enough to ignore him.  Then throw in potential regression and it’s not worth the ulcer.  2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings

51. Scott Kazmir – The Angels are planning on Kazmir filling in Lackey’s spot in the rotation.  Injury risk — check!  Falling K-rate — check!  Overrated for fantasy — we have a winner for the crapfecta!  2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145

52. Derek Lowe – The days of being able to own Lowe from start to finish look to be over.  He’ll have matchups appeal here and there, but you don’t want to draft him.  2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100

53. J.A. Happ – Meh K-rate, high walk rate, bad home park, lucky BABIP, insane amount of men left on base… Mr. Caps Lock says, “HAPP WAS THE LUCKIEST PITCHER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES LAST YEAR.”  At some point it will Happen.  You don’t want to be there when it does.  2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155

54. Rick Porcello – A below 5 K-rate and a 45 inning bump from ’08 secures his place in the Do Not Touch tier.  2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75

55. Daisuke Matsuzaka – I gave up on Dice-K after his unbelievable 2008.  And by unbelievable I mean improbable, not superb.  2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150

56. Joel Pineiro – I’d recommend you hire Gary Glitter as a babysitter before advising you to draft Pineiro.  2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90

57. Randy Wolf – One the hardest things about doing these rankings is going over guys that treated you so well last year then having to write about how you don’t want any part of them in the new season.  When Wolf was traded, I said, “In 2009, Miller Park played as a pitcher’s park, but it’s more neutral than that. It’s no Coors, but it’s also no Metco.  Either way, Wolf was fortunate to have a 3.23 ERA last year and probably shouldn’t be counted on for anything below a 3.90.  Ownable, just not terrific.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155

58. Ricky Romero – To be totally honest, I almost put Romero in a tier with guys I would draft, but in the end, he’s not especially dominant, he’s in a tough division and he’s injury prone.  In an AL-Only league, I’d draft him, but in mixed leagues, I’d stay away.  2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155

59. Tim Hudson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Correia.  I call this tier, “Boring, but ownable.”  On one hand, Hudson’s a reliable vet with a mid-3 career ERA, while a little light on Ks.  On the other hand, Hudson is returning from Tommy John surgery.  That brings with it risk similar to playing with your iPasties app near Carl Monday.  Face it, there’s really no sure² thing this late.  2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145

60. Kevin Correia – The first HodgePadre to make the starter rankings.  This goes without saying but it’s not going to be a fun year to watch the Padres.  Depressing, actually.  They should broadcast every game with Warren Zevon’s Keep Me In Your Heart playing in the background.  2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135

21. Wandy Rodriguez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Oswalt.  I call this tier, “I’m on board.”  Other than a slightly high percentage of men left on base, Wandy’s 2009 looks repeatable.  So here’s what he did in 2009:  3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 193 Ks in 205 2/3 innings.  The Wandwagon rides again!  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

22. Chad Billingsley – Since Billingsley’s 2009 was so opposite of everything I expected, I’m going to speak in the inverse for him.  Last year, Bills had one of those dream seasons.  He came to camp in great shape.  Obviously cutting back on Ring Dings went a long way, but the key was his ice skating regimen.  As he stayed healthy all year, he dominated from start to finish.  K-rate crept up, walks went down and homers?  He didn’t give any up.  In 2010, the negation of the negation.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

23. Matt Garza – Not crazy about the AL East.  It’s inevitable that you bench Garza vs. the Yankees or Sox when he pitches well and you start him when he gets hit.  You can set your watch to it.  Still Garza makes the pain of match ups bearable.  Last year, he increased his 2008 K-rate from 6.24 to 8.38.  Looking at his 9+ K/9 minor league league rate makes me think Garza, at the age of 25, finally found himself in the majors.  He should repeat last year’s numbers or take a step forward.  Here’s to forward movement… 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200

24. Jered Weaver – What you see is what you get with Weaver.  An above average pitcher, but nowhere near the stud he looked like when he was first called up.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180

25. Scott Baker – Baker came out of gates with a sore shoulder that sidelined him for one official start in April.  Then he went on a two month string of terrible starts that made his owners wish he went on the 60-day DL.  His post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28, his ERA in 2008 was 3.45.  I believe those numbers vs. the ones in the 1st half of 2009.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170

26. David Price – Here’s a detailed David Price fantasy breakdown.  2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155

27. Ryan Dempster – Dempster was so downright awful as a closer that it took me two years before I was willing to believe he’s a mid-3 ERA starter.  And even now I feel the same way I felt with Cliff Lee in the top 20 starters.  I just know when I endorse Dempster, he’s going to employ his parachute as he watches me crash to the ground.  2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170

28. Roy Oswalt – The good news for 2009 is his ERA was higher than it should’ve been for how he pitched.  The bad news is it shouldn’t have been that much lower.  The days of him being an ace are way behind him, but as a quality number two to three man on your staff you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150

29. Tommy Hanson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Scherzer.  I call this tier, “Guys I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely thrilled about avoiding.”  Hanson’s innings bump was just too much for my high blood pressure.  I don’t think he’s going to be terrible this year.  I picture he’ll have a year similar to Billingsley’s 2009.  A few solid months and a few mediocre months, leading to an overall 3.75 ERA.  There’s way too many starters to choose from for me to buy into a guy I’m a little weary of.  Even if I’m right and he’s not good in 2010, he will be fine in 2011.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175

30. Javier Vazquez – As I wrote when he was traded, I originally had Vazquez ranked in the top 20 starters.  For s’s and g’s, here’s what I wrote when I had him ranked in the top 20. “For all starters in the major leagues, he had the lowest percentage of contact made on all pitches at 73.3%.  (For reference, Lincecum had 75%.)  For contact made from strikes, Vazquez ranked fourth.  When hitters aren’t making contact, you’re doing something well.  When you do that and throw as many strikes as Vazquez (238:44 K:BB), you’re doing something really³ well.”  Here’s what I wrote after he was traded.  2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200

31. Max Scherzer – His ranking is sorta like my ranking of Gallardo.  If I’m wrong, then I’m missing out on a guy that I could regret not owning because of all of his Ks.  Alas, I’m avoiding him because of his innings jump from ’08 to ’09 and his move to the Tigers won’t help his value.  It’s a termite-infested limb I’m out on avoiding him, but here I am.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165

32. Matt Cain – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Burnett.  I call this tier, “They will regress, but still ownable. Plus, A.J. Burnett.”  2007 is in Cain’s skill set.  2009 is not.  Or I should say it’s not without a lot of luck.  For all major league starters outside of Happ (and we’ll get to him in the top 60), Cain left the most men on base.  He also had a lower BABIP than Happ, if only by percentage points.  I say 2007 is in his skill set because that year he had a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 163 Ks.  That’s ownable, just not a 2.89 ERA.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165

33. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATED:  Jar-Jar moved to the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.

34. A.J. Burnett – Took two years of 30+ starts for me to accept Burnett as reliable. …Okay, I still don’t fully trust him, but it’s hard to find a 200 strikeout pitcher this late in the game.  Would I team Burnett with an upside two or three starter, like, say, Price?  No, I wouldn’t.  But I could see teaming him with an Oswalt-type.  Which gives me an idea, maybe I’ll do a post about pairings.  Not like what wine goes with branzino.  Like which starter goes with which starter.  2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200

35. James Shields – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Zambrano.  I call this tier, “Veterans that I’m done with.”  I just can’t take Shields’s shizz anymore.  Pitches well vs. the tough teams, gets his stank handed to him by the Royals, can’t pitch in away games… You’ve beaten me, Shields.  You win.  2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160

36. John Lackey – When he signed with Bahston, I went over Lackey for 2010 fantasy.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130

37. Brandon Webb – Hey, he’s all better!  That’s nice, I’m not owning him.  Pitching is already risky.  Not worth further risk.  2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165

38. Carlos Zambrano – Big Z is done-zo.  The Chicago chapter of the World Health Organization’s Freedom of Accuracy and Truth symposium should counsel children on what happens when you abuse an out of shape pitcher’s arm for five years.  In elementary school classrooms, posters can be hung of Carlos Zambrano, brought to you by WHO’s F.A.T.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140

39. Kevin Slowey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 60 starters post.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  There’s a good chance I’m going to own at least one of these guys on all of my teams.  Slowey’s a strikeout pitcher that doesn’t walk anyone.  You shouldn’t need much else to get excited.  (BTW, everyone in this tier’s projections are optimistic, but whatevs.  You’ll afford me my dreams, right?)  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165

40. Johnny Cueto – The 2nd half ERA of 5.81 was dreadful.  He had a two month ERA (July and August) of 8.18.  Was not a good time to be a Cueto owner.  His FIP was 4.69 on the year.  So what am I seeing in this schmohawk?  He suffered from a sore hip, which threw his mechanics out of control in the middle of the season.  In the minors, Cueto was a strikeout pitcher with solid control.  Here’s to him finding his happy place in the majors.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160

1. Tim Lincecum – Went over Lincecum’s projections in the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.

2. Felix Hernandez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “F-Her vs. Greinke.”  I feel like F-Her doesn’t get his due.  I know he must be thrilled to finally get that acknowledgment from a fantasy baseball blog.  Fire your PR firm!  Imagine a 23-year-old pitcher in New York throwing 238 2/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA and 217 Ks.  Joba’s Mom opens a crystal meth lab in the bathroom of a Denny’s and it makes more news than F-Her.  Even in my blurb for F-Her I’m talking about Joba.  Guy gets no respect.  At least I didn’t talk about Greinke.  Oh, wait… 2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

3. Zach Greinke – The only reason why Greinke is going before F-Her in drafts is because of hype.  Just something about someone reaching their potential that drives people crazy.  Greinke had an exceptional year in 2009.  No argument from me.  I before E except in Greinke, I know.  I just think F-Her’s a tad safer.  Maybe it’s the four straight years of 190+ innings from F-Her… Maybe it’s the jump in K-rate for Greinke and the more gradual increase for F-Her… Maybe it’s Greinke’s literal feel good story…. Maybe I’m just a cynic to hype… In the end, it’s not like I ranked Greinke 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

4. Roy Halladay – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Johan.  I call this tier, “Don’t hate them because they’ve done it many times before.”  Went over my Halladay fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

5. CC Sabathia – Since I pitted Greinke vs. F-Her, let’s look at Sabathia vs. Johan.  Johan’s K-rate has been falling.  It was still 7.88 and slightly above CC at 7.71.  Johan’s walks went up last year:  2.48 BB/9.  Sabathia’s was still higher at 2.62.  Johan pitches in Metco, whereas CC’s in a Little League stadium.  Johan was dealing with some arm issues, so maybe that’s why he was wilder than usual and his strikeouts have been declining.  Yeah, maybe, but Johan was dealing with some arm issues so he’s below CC.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

6. Johan Santana – I think reports of Johan’s doneness have been prematurely reported.  Will he give you 250 Ks and a 2.50?  Nah, those days are in the rear view, but 200 Ks and a 3.00 ERA seems completely doable.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

7. Justin Verlander – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Wainwright.  I call this tier, “These guys have a legitimate chance of being on my team.”  I don’t draft starters high, but I am a whore for Ks.  They’re sorta like homers for me with hitters.  A homer gets you a Run, a RBI and boosts your average.  While a K doesn’t directly get you a Win, it does help ERA and WHIP.  It’s also one of the few things the pitcher controls.  Thanks to a fastball that averaged 96 MPH, Verlander had 269 Ks last year.  For starters last year, he ranked 7th for getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.  If he can somehow avoid the terrible April he’s had two years in a row, he could be in for a sub-3 ERA. 2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

8. Dan Haren – Haren is one of the most reliable pitchers.  Around a 3.20 ERA — check!  Around 200 Ks — check!  Terrible in the 2nd half — alas!  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

9. Jon Lester – Pitchers usually breakout in their third year starting.  Worked last year for Lester and I don’t see it as a fluke.  Will his K-rate continue to climb?  Probably not.  Is it a tough division?  Sorta.  Whole lot easier not facing the Sawx.  Last year, his FIP was 3.15.   He ranked behind only Lincecum and Verlander for K/9.  Could be Lincecum, Verlander and Lester at the top of the rankings next year.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

10. Adam Wainwright – As with other rankings posts, there’s always a few that legitimately stump me.  I move them up and down and eventually settle on a place.  I don’t tell you this just so you can peer behind the curtain and see I’m not wearing pants.  I tell you this so you know I’m more iffy on certain players.  If they were to bomb, I wouldn’t be completely surprised.  So Wainwright was great last year, most signs point to him being able to repeat, but there’s a few red flags.  A Flag)  His innings jump.  He is older than the age when pitchers are usually flagged for that, but still.  B Flag) He relies heavily on breaking pitches.  Either he doesn’t trust his fastball or Yadier’s got carpal tunnel and can’t hold down one finger.  C Flag)  Whoever heard of a C Flag.  There’s no such thing.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

11. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kershaw.  I call this tier, “If I don’t get a pitcher from the previous tier, I’ll need someone from this tier.”  Sure, Hamels was full on crizzap last year.  Well, Happy New Year!  Hamels led all starters with least amount of contact made on pitches inside the strike zone.  That’s stuff.  He’s on a team that can give him a shot for 18-20 Wins, he can reach 190 Ks and a mid to low-3 ERA.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

12. Josh Johnson – Tons of Ks, great ERA, insane FIP.  Yes!  Previous elbow problems combined with a huge innings bump, his 2.74 ERA pre-All-Star Break vs. his 4.00 ERA post-All-Star Break, somewhat lucky HR/FB.  This fish looks so damn tasty, but he might be tainted with mercury.  I don’t think he’s a slam dunk, but I’m willing to take the risk for the reward.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

13. Cliff Lee – After Lee’s Cy Young win, I remained a non-believer.  After his 2009 year, I’ve seen the light.  I’m done fighting the man.  Lee’s a top starter.  And I just know that now that I’m in bed with him, I’m going to wake up with a horse’s head.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

14. Ubaldo Jimenez – From May to October, Ubaldo’s ERA was 3.08.  And he has the most baldass name.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

15. Ricky Nolasco – In 185 innings, Nolasco rang up 195 Ks and only gave up 44 walks.  His K/BB rate ranked fifth in the majors just behind Greinke, Vazquez, Haren and Halladay.  He ranked eighth for the times he was able to get a batter to swing outside of the strike zone, just below Verlander.  He also had a 5.06 ERA last year.   This was due to bad luck.  The ERA will come down.  This is a fantasy baseball trust exercise.  Fall into Nolasco’s arms, he’ll catch you.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

16. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter always seems to have stretches where he’ll throw a couple of 6 inning games and give up 8 runs in each, which is a dagger to the testicles.  But he’s consistently near 200 Ks, has a team that gives him wins and a 3.63 FIP or under for three years straight.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

17. Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is not the prototypical Grey crush.  He walks a lot of hitters and has a hard time getting out of the 6 inning.  A 21 year old who just had a 3.08 FIP and a 9.74 K/9 makes up for a whole lot of walks and short outings.  End of last year, I furthered my Kershaw fantasy.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

18. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Peavy.  I call this tier, “Avoid.”  I know all that jazz about Duncan teaching his starters to pitch to contact.  Well, here’s a jazz riff for you.  I don’t want my fantasy starters pitching to contact when I have to pay for them with a top draft pick.  If Carp comes cheap, then sure, otherwise I think he’s too hyped, even outside The Bootheel.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

19. Yovani Gallardo – We had a good run last year, but it went on too long and wasn’t that pretty towards the end.  I could see my avoidance of Gallardo biting me in the ass because he is an extreme strikeout pitcher, which I like, but the innings jump from 2008 to 2009 raises too many questions for me.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.85/1.32/175

20. Jake Peavy – It’s with great regret Peavy ends up in the avoid tier.  He’s just been too injured the last couple of seasons.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and, well, you know the cliché.  And now he’s out of Petco.  Lates, Peave.  2010 Projections:  10-5/3.35/1.15/145

1. Vladimir Guerrero – This is the first tier.  This tier goes until Matsui.  I call this tier, “They were good at one time.  No more.”  If you’re drafting Vlad to clog up your utility spot, then you’re assuming he’s going to bounce back.  So my question to you is, a bounce back to what?  The last time he stole more than 5 bases was in 2006.  That was when he had three working legs and didn’t walk like Ron Kovic.  The last time he hit above 30 homers was also in 2006.  The last two years Vlad hasn’t hit above .303.  As evidenced by the participants of HBO’s Real Sex, swingers don’t age well.  2010 Projections:  70/26/95/.290/3

2. David Ortiz – Right now, Ron Blomberg is rolling over in his Barcalounger in disgust.  It is most certainly not the age of the DH.  Like Vlad, if you draft Papi, you’re hoping for a bounce back.  Again, I don’t think it’s coming.  See Mo Vaughn’s career for further proof.  2010 Projections:  70/27/90/.265

3. Hideki Matsui – He probably won’t give you much different numbers than the first two guys on this list.  Matsui might be the only bargain in the DHs.  Still doesn’t mean I’d draft him.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.285

4. Travis Hafner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the rankings.  I call this tier, “Don’t even think about drafting them.” Okay, multiple choice question.  Which of these are actual quotes by Hafner?  A)  I’ll be fully healthy for the 2008 season.  B)  I’ll be fully healthy for the 2009 season.  C) I’ll be fully healthy for the 2010 season.  D)  My head weighs 17 pounds.  If you answered A, B and C, you’re right.  That doesn’t make D any less accurate.  2010 Projections:  50/18/65/.270

5. Pat Burrell – Unless your league has a NSFW category, Burrell isn’t worth owning.  2010 Projections:  65/24/75/.245

61. Krispie Young – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Francoeur.  I call this tier, “The few veteran outfielders I’d take a flier on late, and even these guys leave a lot to be desired.”  If Krispie hits a third of his infield pop-ups for homers next year, he’ll hit 40.  And if I were 30 years old in 1760, I’d think Martha Washington was hot.  2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15

62. Nick Swisher – Swisher reminds me of a just-post-roided Giambi.  25+ homers and a poor average.  What I sorta like about him?  I feel like he can hit 35 homers.  Hard to find that late.  2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255

63. Delmon Young – The fact that he’s only 24 and he ended up in the veteran outfielders that are kind eh category is both the good and bad.  The good, his tools can still develop.  The bad, what’s taking so effin’ long?  2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7

64. Lastings Milledge – Three short years ago Mets fans were debating if the organization should unretire number 41 in case Milledge wanted to wear it.  Now, the Pirates are debating between Milledge and Brandon Moss in the outfield.  Milledge will only be 25 in 2010 so you shouldn’t write him off… Just don’t write him in with ink.  2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12

65. Jeff Francoeur – It’s only fair that you know that I placed Frenchy in the below tier of guys I don’t want at all then moved him up to this tier… Then down… Then up.  Just don’t want you to feel flimflammed on my Frenchy flip-floppery.  (<–Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5

66. Juan Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Willingham.  I call this tier, “Guys that you draft that you shouldn’t.”  What I mean with this tier, you’re better off just taking a flier on upside.  Willingham, Ross, Rivera, et al are guys that are always on waivers.  Maybe not them per se, but guys that do exactly the same thing.  If you don’t get Willingham in a draft, so what?  You can get ten other guys off of waivers that do the same thing.  2010 Projections:  65/24/75/.280

67. Cody Ross – Something about a player with two first names that always translates to boring.  If you’re able to draft Ross and hold him for longer than a week of the season, you have more patience than me.  His 25 homers and 5 steals and .270 average look okay on draft day, but there’s always someone who breaks out the first week of the season and Ross is the first one to go.  2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5

68. David DeJesus – Someone save us from this tier.  2010 Projections:  80/12/60/.280/7

69. Jermaine Dye – Just when you thought this tier couldn’t get yawnstipating-er.  2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

70. Josh Willingham -  The best thing I can say about Willingham is that he’s the last name in this tier.  2010 Projections:  60/24/70/.255/3

71. Cameron Maybin – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end.  I call this tier, “These guys may not even have a starting job.  So?”  When you’re this deep into a position, you’re better off taking a flier on upside.  I’ll give you an example to explain my point.  Jason Heyward starts the season hot.  Hits 5 homers and steals 4 bases in April.  You can trade him for someone that far exceeds his value.  Juan Rivera starts the season hot.  He hits 7 homers in April.  You know who you can trade him to?  His Moms.  That’s about it.  Do I want an outfield of Heyward, Maybin and Stanton?  Maybe in 2012.  No way for this year.  re: Maybin; If you’ve been reading the site for longer than a minute — not an Urban Dictionary minute which is actually a long time — you’ll know I was crushing hard on Maybin last year.  Nothing’s changed except his shoulder’s healed and he’s a year more seasoned like that beef stew in the back of your fridge.  I’m everywhere!  2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20

72. Jake Fox – His projections are over at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.

73. Jason Heyward – Went over my Jason Heyward fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20

74. Desmond Jennings – Went over Desmond Jennings fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25

75. Austin Jackson – Jackson is supposedly going to be the starting center fielder for the Tigers.  He’s shown a lot more speed than power in the minor leagues and that shouldn’t disappear in the majors.  His .300 average in Triple-A looks like an aberration.  He’s liable to get exploited on breaking stuff.  A .250-.260 average wouldn’t surprise me.  Watching Leyland run Clete Thomas and Raburn out there in 2009 without much to show for it makes methinks Jackson will not only be the starting center fielder but he’ll probably lead off.  2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22

76. Michael Taylor – Went over my Michael Taylor fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/12/60/.280/15

77. Kyle Blanks – Blanks, the love child of Fabulous Moolah and Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, naturally has some power in his ginourmous frame.  He should get to 25 homers easily and the average probably won’t be as bad as you might think for an all-or-nothing-type.  2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3

78. Matt LaPorta – I’m real worried about the hip surgery he had in October.  He’s much younger than most guys who have this surgery — by about 50 years — but still any time you go messing with a guy’s hip I think there has to be some residual soreness or so I saw on House.  Have to watch in Spring Training to see how he’s coping.  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275

79. Gerardo Parra – For Parra to get near 25 steals, he’d probably get thrown out 30 times.  Cust kayin’.  2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10

80. Ryan Raburn – With Fowler and CarGo, the Rockies are the fantasy sleeper outfield of 2010.  With Austin Jackson and Raburn, the Tigers want that title.  In 2006 and 2007, Raburn put up numbers in Triple-A (averaged 18 homers and 14 steals) that put him on the map.  Then, in 261 ABs last year, he had 16 homers and 5 steals.  Even though Ryan Raburn sounds like someone that should be dating Angela Lansbury, he has some upside and Leyland seems committed to giving him a chance. 2010 Projections: 65/22/75/.265/10 <–  crazy optimistic, but whatever.

After the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s really not that many guys, but here’s two to look at:

Michael Saunders – Probably won’t play unless Bradley’s hurt… Oh, wait a minute, Bradley’s always hurt.  Saunders looks like a poor man’s FraGu.  Slight power, Slight speed.  Best case scenario, 15/15.  One thought, if Saunders was a solid prospect, why wasn’t he traded to the Orioles?  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15

Seth Smith – Man, I got it bad for the Rockies outfield this year (except Hawpe. Hmm… Guess that means I only like 2 out of 3.  Nevertheless!).  If Smith can somehow corral 450 ABs, he could get to 20+ homers and 10+ steals.  It’s a longshot that is predicated on playing time. Predicated-schedicated…  Get rid of Hawpe!  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10 with plenty of upside from there, but he needs a starting job.

41. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “Yawnstipating power outfielders.”  Cuddyer probably could’ve/should’ve/Elliott Gould’ve ranked higher than this, but I think he had a career year that won’t be repeated.  A career year that I went over in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, where you’ll also find his projections.

42. Brad Hawpe – Maybe it’s just me but Brad Hawpe screams a platoon player to me.  A platoon player that only plays the 1st half of the year? Ah, cute, random italicized voice.  No, he shouldn’t play vs. lefties.  Also, watch out if he’s shipped out of Coors.  (An idea that has me foaming at the mouth.  Well, that and my Diet Coke and Mentos diet.)  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280

43. Jason Kubel – I liked Kubel going into 2009.  He’s more or less the same this year, but the only difference is how people are perceiving him.  Kubel had value when he was a last round draft pick.  There’s no value when you have to draft him like he’s actually going to stay on your team.  Trust me, he won’t.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285

44. Vernon Wells – He had wrist surgery in November.  Blech.  I’m really only ranking him because I don’t want people to ask me if I forgot him.  I didn’t, but you should.  2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10

45. Corey Hart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Snider.  I call this tier, “Back into outfielders that I would draft.”  Hart will be 28 in March and 2009 was a lost season; he battled injuries for almost two months.  His declining HR/FB is cause for some alarm, so he doesn’t come without risk.  But when you’re choosing between Kubel or Wells or Hart, I trust you’ll make the right choice.  2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17

46. Dexter Fowler – I went over my Fowler fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35

47. Colby Rasmus – I went over him in a Colby Rasmus sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14

48. Travis Snider – I’m randy on Travis.  As long as the Blue Jays don’t Kemp him all season and move him up the order then he could be in for a huge breakout.  There was also a Travis Snider sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265/3

49. Drew Stubbs – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Brantley.  I call this tier, “Upside speed picks to make Ron LeFlore proud.”  I’ll like Stubbs more when he definitely has the job in center.  Though, even with the job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose time to other outfielders, especially if Taveras is still there.  Stubbs also has a problem with Ks.  2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35

50. Michael Brantley – It’s the Riverdance guy!  This ranking is really contingent on playing time and the speed he offers.  Don’t expect much else.  2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30

51. Elijah Dukes – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to The Big FraGu.  I call this tier, “Your back’s against the wall and you really need upside.” Last year was the first time in his career that Dukes didn’t have any trouble with the law.  He also didn’t hit.  Let’s hope in 2010 he catches manslaughter charges and hits 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/15 <– optimistic but whatever

52. Chase Headley - I like him way better at 3rd base.  In fact, I already went over him there at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

53. Chris Coghlan – Looking at Coghlan’s numbers, he looks like a cheap Denard Dawg.  That’s neither a compliment nor an insult.  To put that in overused slang terms, it is what it is.  Coghlan just needs to show more of that speed he showed in the minors.  Would I want Coghlan in my outfield?  Not unless I had a lot of speed and power on my team and felt I needed average and Runs.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15

54. Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu probably gets more pub on Razzball than he should because of his most excellent nickname.  His ceiling is what he did last year, but he could do it again.  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13

55. Carlos Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Mags.  I call this tier, “Old guys with no upside.”  Listen — or read as the case probably is — a lot of these guys will probably outperform some of the guys above, but that doesn’t mean I’d necessarily want them on all teams.  I tend to go for steady performers in the early slots of the draft, then I take fliers later on.  But if you have an outfield of, say, Justin Upton and Adam Jones, I could see taking Carlos Guillen to balance upside with stability.  As for Guillen, he was injury-prone when he was young.  Now he’s 35 years old.  Oy.  2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6

56. Ryan Ludwick – Wait, wasn’t Ludwick in a promising tier last year? Yeah, and now he’s  in an over-the-hill one.  2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3

57. J.D. Drew – He’s actually stayed relatively healthy recently and the numbers have been pretty yawnstipating.  Hopefully, his brother, Stephen, can step it up Michael Voltaggio-style and help Mother Drew choose a favorite.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

58. Milton Bradley – He has the inverse Elijah Dukes thing going on.  When he’s good, he’s good, when he’s bad, he’s so bad.  (<–That would mean the exact opposite if you were to hear it in an R&B song.)  2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5

59. Mike Cameron – Went over Mike Cameron for fantasy when he was signed by the Sawx.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14

60. Magglio Ordonez – You can pretty much tell how stodgy a fantasy baseball site is by where they rank Magglio.  CBS has him 49th.  Barring his insane BABIP year of ’07, he hasn’t really been great since 2002 and now has been below average and down right bad the last two years, respectively.  He’s AARP Mags.  2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310

20. Shin-Soo Choo – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Span.  I call this tier, “Speed threats with weak power.”  As mentioned aforely, this entire tier could be above the “Power threats with weak speed” tier that ended the top 20 outfielders post.  Depends on how you’re building a team.  Okay, now on Choo.  I love that when I search a baseball site for Choo I find Choo Freeman listed first.  Choo Freeman’s getting some Jennie-O turkey for that one.  The non-Freeman, Choo had a bit of a ridunkiculous BABIP.  Don’t know what that’s all about.  The fellas over at Fangraphs hinted that Choo’s choo-choosing where the ball is going with telekinesis.  Nice, when they do a Broadway adaptation of Zapped, Choo can play the Baio role.  Assuming Choo keeps placing line drives between fielders with nothing more than a constipated-looking stare, he should maintain his average.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

21. Bobby Abreu – There’s a few guarantees in life, death, taxes and Bobby Abreu hitting 15 homers.  Yet, he’s a tapestry of different numbers as far as how many steals he’s going to get.  If you had a three-sided coin that had the number twenty, twenty-five and thirty each on a different side then flipped it in the air… Well, I don’t know how a three-sided coin would even land so I got lost in my own example.  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

22. Shane Victorino – The Crapolanco trade to the Phillies doesn’t help Victorino’s value as far as Runs, but he’s solid in other categories.  Plus, we can always hope for an injury to the usually durable Crapolanco.  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

23. Ben Zobrist – Zobrist’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

24. Denard Span – His caught stealings last year are a little disconcerting (10 times in 33 attempts), but I think he can potentially sneak in 12 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

25. Alfonso Soriano – This is a new tier.  This is a two person tier.  This doode and Rios.  I call this tier, “Reclamation projects.” Obviously last year Soriano sucked on the suckhole for the better part of the year.  Maybe his Latin 34 is finally catching up to him.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see him nose dive in 2010.  He only hit 13 homers last year against clubs not named the Astros.  His speed is not what it once was.  I don’t think arthroscopic knee surgery’s going to be the answer to that.  Wow, I’m really selling this bounce back, huh?  The reality of The Situation™ is that there’s question marks with all of these guys.  Soriano can still hit 25+ homers and steal 10+ bags.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

26. Alex Rios – Prepare for another lukewarm sales pitch.  Rios’s BABIP last year was almost fifty points off his career average.  So, say he hit .280 last year with the Runs and RBIs that comes with those extra hits.  Now imagine he still hit the 17 homers and stole the 24 bases.  Still  disappointing, but less so.  Almost convincing, huh?  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

27. Carlos Lee – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to McLouth.  I call this tier, “This is your father’s fantasy baseball outfield.”  This tier is compromised of the oldies but goodies or, perhaps more aptly, oldies and were goodies that may or may not be that goodie anymore.  In 2007, Lee hit 32 homers; in 2008, he hit 28, then last year he put up 26 homers.  Um, bad trend.  If he can reverse that, oh goodie!  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

28. Manny Ramirez – Outside of an insane 2nd half in 2008, Manny really hasn’t been that good in a while.  Name value is making him seem like more than Cuddyer.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

29. Torii Hunter – Double I is like an Elizabeth Vargas stalker… Always near 20/20.  Thank you, Jay Leno!  2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

30. Carlos Beltran – Was a real battle trying to rank Beltran.  I really need to hear more news on his knee and see how he’s progressing.  This is tentatively where I’d start to look at him.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

31. Raul Ibanez – If it wasn’t for his home park playing like a wiffle ball stadium, I would’ve dropped him further because of his 2nd half.  Since I think my buck-fifty frame could hit 25 homers in Citizen’s Bank, I’m willing to give Ibanez the benefit of the doubt.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

32. Johnny Damon – He’s like the Brian Roberts of the outfield.  Homers go up, steals go down.  Steals go up, homers go down.  Put it together, Damon, your time is running out.  2010 Projections:  100/20/75/.290/15

33. Nate McLouth – Torii minus fifteen points on average or CarGo with no upside.  It’s okay, but if you have an erection for longer than ten minutes after drafting McLouth, you should seek immediate medical attention.  2010 Projections:  95/20/75/.260/20

34. Hunter Pence -This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Reimold.  I call this tier, “I wanted to rank all of these guys higher.”  I.e., I like the guys in this tier.  They’re not slam dunks, but to varying degrees I’m very excited about them.  Do I want an outfield of, say, Pence, Bruce and Reimold?  No, not at all.  That’s too much of a good thing.  That good thing being upside. re: Pence; he’s going to be the magical 27 years old in 2010 when baseball players don a green hat similar to one seen in Leprechaun: In The Hood and their power reaches its peak.  A big season is in store.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15

35. Andrew McCutchen – Yes, in the tier of guys I’m gunning for is an Astro, a Pirate, a Red and an Oriole.  Ugh, this means I’m gonna have to watch these teams during the season.  Alas, we’ll save that setback for the season.  Check it, some of the things you just can’t figure.  Why is Victorino ranked above The Dread Pirate when their projections are near-identical?  Because, for three years in a row, Victorino has already done what The Dread Pirate could do.  McCutchen is the brand new model, the 2010 Victorino.  2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30

36. Jay Bruce -  As Master Gee would say, “Well, it’s on on on on on on on on.”   Went over my Jay Bruce fantasy already.  I like, friend.  I’m practically daffy for him.  Do I like him as much as Bill James who projected him for 38 homers and 10 steals?  Only Bruce’s Mom loves him that much.  2010 Projections:  80/30/95/.270/7

37. Carlos Gonzalez – He’ll probably only give you McLouth numbers, so please keep expectations in check.  Okay, enough of that.  He’s going to be awesome!!!!! (Extra exclamation marks were texted in by my twelve year old niece.)  2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20

38. Nolan Reimold – Has 10 steal speed, 25 homer power, should hit around .290… Holy crap, Markakis is a Russian nesting doll and inside him is Reimold!  (For further reading on my Reimold fantasy.)  2010 Projections:  85/25/95/.290/10

39. Garrett Jones -  Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12

40. Michael Bourn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pierre.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF!”  As for Bourn, see tier name.  2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55

There will be a top 60 outfielder post, but here’s four names on the top 40 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball that I need to point out because you can’t just end a SAGNOF tier without these guys:

40 1/5. Nyjer Morgan – See Bourn, Michael or 1/3 of an inch above.  2010 Projections:  105/4/45/.300/45

40 2/5. Rajai Davis – Too many speed schmohawks and not enough space.  2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50

40 3/5. Julio Borbon – Portmanteau’ing Bourn, Morgan, Rajai, Borbon and Pierre and you get Mijerio Pierogies.  The one Hispanic man in all of Poland.  (Further reading on the Borbon fantasy.)  2010 Projections:  90/8/40/.300/40

40 4/5. Juan Pierre – He’s not French, but he can make love to your face with his steals.  2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45

1. Ryan Braun – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Ryan Braun’s 2010 projections.

2. Matt Kemp – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Kemp’s 2010 projections.

3. Matt Holliday – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Ellsbury.  I call this tier, “Still number one outfielders.”  See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Matt Holliday’s 2010 projections.

4. Grady Sizemore – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Grady Sizemore’s 2010 projections.

5.  Carl Crawford – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Carl Crawford’s 2010 projections.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury – As mentioned before on this blog, speed guys are a lot like new cars.  The minute you drive a speed guy off the lot, he loses a lot of value.  Don’t believe me, try to trade Ellsbury for a guy of similar value.  A guy who can easily go 10/60 needs to be in the top of the outfield rankings, but I tend to look for speed from SAGNOF middle infielders (Andrus, Everth Cabrera, etc) or later round SAGNOF outfielders (Pierre, Borbon, etc).  Is it nice to have an Ellsbury-type and not have to worry about steals later?  Sure, but if something happens to Ellsbury and your entire team is built to not worry about steals, you may have to worry.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

7. Justin Upton - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Bay.  I call this tier, “Who said the outfield is deep?”  Above, there’s four power threats and two speed threats, now a guy that went 26/20.  Wow.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Justin Upton, but this is the top of the outfield?  Where did the Carlos Lees, Mannys, Sorianos and Berkmans go?  As mentioned earlier in the preseason, you could’ve found 27 players who contributed 20 steals, but only eleven outfielders that had 30 homers.  Obviously testing for steroids is working better than testing for Red Bull.  re: Upton; His fly balls fell and his homers surged.  Not a great recipe for success.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a holding pattern in 2010 rather than a huge step forward.  But his holding pattern is still better than most players’ peak and the high ranking is also for his tremendous upside.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

8. Curtis Granderson – Don’t blame me for this ranking; blame the outfield.  Where else am I supposed to rank a guy who can steal 20 bags and hit 30 homers?  I know his splits; I know the so-called psychological toll playing for the Yanks takes; I also know he can pull 30 homers over the short porch without much effort.  As I said when Grandy was traded, the average last year should’ve been higher.  He’s not going to win a batting title, but .275 is doable.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

9. Jayson Werth – It feels like people don’t trust Werth, but he’s been caught stealing 4 times in 44 attempts in the last two years and his power doesn’t look fluky.  From May to September, he hit at least 6 homers every month so it’s not like his numbers were inflated with an insane month or two.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

10. B.J. Upton – He’s definitely shown he can’t be relied on for 20 homers, but you can count on him for 40 steals and 10 homers.  The low average can only partially be written off as bad luck; he also swung at more balls outside the strike zone.  I think they’re tied together.  He was unlucky, started pressing and things got progressively worse.  At least that’s my missing bang theory.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

11. Ichiro Suzuki – Here’s my thought on Ichiro.  Yes, he hits .330+ consistently, but your fantasy baseball team only needs around .280 to be in contention.  You should get .280 with a few .260 hitters, a few .280 hitters and a few .300 hitters.  So Ichiro’s unnecessary average gorging.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

12. Jason Bay – He nearly ended up in the next tier.  What held him out was his ability to steal.  Just don’t trust him like I should considering his year in, year out numbers.  I have this feeling that he will hit 25 homers and steal 5 bags with a .265 average.  My fears are probably unrealistic.  Like my fear of electric eels.  (<–Yes, I’m on Twitter, but I don’t check it much, so, yeah, do what you do.)  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

13. Adam Lind – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Markakis.  I call this tier, “Power threats with weak speed.”  There’s instances when I would skip this tier and jump to the next one.  If I drafted Ryan Howard in the first round, I’d want someone from the tier, “Speed threats with weak power.”  (That tier starts in the top 40 outfielders, which can be found in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings once it’s posted.)  The reason why the power threats with weak speed came first in the rankings is because power is a lot harder to come by than speed.  I know, tell that to 1998 and it would laugh.  Okay, now about Lind.  It’s weird how I feel like sometimes a hitter breaks out and everyone scrambles for him, then other times a hitter breaks out and people are tepid about believing it.  Lind broke out last year.  There’s no reason to believe he’s going to lapse into bust territory this year.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

14. Josh Hamilton – Never to be one to resist a talented guy who just had a tough year, I couldn’t stop myself from putting Hamilton higher than most ‘perts.  Is Hamilton still injury prone?  Dur, of course.  He’s still only 28 entering the 2010 season and he has big time talent.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

15. Andre Ethier – I still find it hard to believe Ethier’s power, so I can’t promise you I wouldn’t skip over Ethier in a draft if I felt a real power squeeze on my fantasy team.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

16. Carlos Quentin – Here’s an extended look at Carlos Quentin for 2010 fantasy baseball.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

17. Nelson Cruz – I was tempted to put Cruz even higher, but then I realized Bill James’s projections of 36 homers and 21 steals with a .284 average shouldn’t be taken at face value.  James sure has it bad for Rangers, huh?  If Cruz were to reach those projections, that’s number one outfielder shizz.  But we’ll try and be a bit more sober with him.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

18. Adam Dunn – Dunn’s projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for fantasy baseball post.

19. Adam Jones – A record breaking third Adam makes the top 20 outfielders.  Four seems out of reach, unless when someone says Adam Lambert plays for the other team, they mean a baseball team.  Jones got knocked out of almost all of September with a strained ankle, but he should be ready to go in time for spring training.  At 24, he should be able to take the next step with his power and speed.  I’m very excited about watching Pacman make it rain this year.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

20. Nick Markakis - After last season only true loyalists would stand up and shout, “I am Sparkakis!”  He doesn’t have much more than 25 homer power or 10 steal speed. (He does have more speed, but I think the Orioles are slowing him for risk of injury.)  But he won’t kill you on average, Runs or RBIs.  Not as exciting as once perceived, but still solid.  So maybe it’s “I am Sparkakis” with a period rather than an exclamation point.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

1. Alex Rodriguez – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for A-Rod’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Longoria’s projections.

3. David Wright – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Wright’s projections.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Sandoval.  I call this tier, “You didn’t get a top 3rd baseman, so here you are.”  Zimmerman finally came into his own last year.  The homers might plateau around 30 and the average probably won’t go above .300… Then again, he’s only 25 years old and he has some speed potential…. Then again, the Nats have put the brakes on him to avoid injury.  Either either way, Zimmerman’s on the rise with solid power, Runs, RBIs and average.  Hmm… Sounds a lot like Youuuuuk.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Youkilis’s projections.

6. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Reynolds’s projections.

7. Pablo Sandoval – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Sandoval’s projections.

8. Chone Figgins – This is a new tier.  This is a one man tier.  I call this tier, “You better have some serious power from your middle infielders to support Figgy’s dearth.” Figgy’s Dearth is also a great speed metal band.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

9. Gordon Beckham – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Beltre.  I call this tier, “Upside, no upside, upside, no upside, no upside.”  I went over my Gordon Beckham fantasy already.  At that post, I said, “Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.”  Then I said, “It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.”  Finally, I said, “I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.”  Hmm… Gotta work on what quotes I pull.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

10. Michael Young – Which percentage doesn’t fit — 8.6%, 6.9%, 7.2% or 14.9%?  If you answered anything other than 14.9%, you might’ve stopped at the “or.”  Fair enough, I do that sometimes.  Those percentages were his last four years of HR/FB.  He’s really not a 20 homer hitter or.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

11. Ian Stewart – I went over Stewart’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  He also received an Ian Stewart sleeper thing-a-ma-whosie.

12. Aramis Ramirez – He’s Pablo Sandoval with injury concerns, a slightly lower average and no upside.  Aramis is only 31 so you may not want to write him off, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2006 so I’m writing him off.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

13. Chipper Jones – Last year, Chipper played in the most games in a season since 2003 and he had his worst season ever.  Hey, Chipper, maybe don’t push yourself so hard to play injured.  ’09 wasn’t a sign that he can’t still hit .310, just some bad luck.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5

14. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “You might want to drop these guys from your team before May 1st.”  God knows Beltre had his balls busted enough last year, but in 449 ABs, he hit 8 homers.  So did Gregg Zaun.  The move to Fenway has to help a bit, right?  Sure, or at least that’s what I said.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10

15. Mark DeRosa – Is DeRosa a 20 homer hitter or a platoon player?  That’s something to *pinkie to mouth* ponderosa.  2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3

16. Jorge Cantu – I could’ve put Casey Blake here, but what fun is that?  Wait, what fun is Cantu? Yeah, true.  Cantu hit 7 homers in April then took a Taco Bell-sized dump for 4 months.  The batting woes may be attributed to a sore wrist.  In September, he started hitting again.  May have been due to his wrist coming around.  Then again, maybe you’ll want to drop him by mid-April.  It’s called a flier, ya’ll.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

17. Chris Davis – Only has 11 games at 3rd base so Davis may not have eligibility in your league.  This is a new tier.  This is the last tier and I call it, “Your last chance for some upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Davis’s projections.

18. Jake Fox – Went over my Jake Fox fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250

19. Alex Gordon – You know that scene in Notting Hill when Hugh Grant walks through the market and it goes from autumn to spring?  What, not lame enough?  Okay, here’s a lamer example.  You know when Bella is staring out the window in New Moon and the seasons change as the camera goes around her?  Yeah, that’s Alex Gordon staring at his career.  He’ll only be 26 in 2010 and he’s still capable of the upside he hinted at, oh, 4 years ago when he hit 29 homers and stole 22 bases in Double-A and followed that with a 15/14 year with the Royals in 2007, but it’s really getting to be now or never.  2010 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/12

20. Casey McGehee – I went over McGehee’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

20 1/2. Andy LaRoche – This guy needs Troy Dunn to find his upside.  I contemplated leaving LaRoche off entirely because I can’t imagine him putting together a season to make him worthwhile for fantasy, except for stretches when he can be grabbed off of waivers.  2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3

After the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s some guys, but these two stand out:

Chase Headley – First off, I’d draft Headley before LaRoche.  I only placed them in this order because I wanted to highlight Headley.  So consider him highlighted.  Headley can get 25 homers and steal 10 bases.  Will he?  Who am, Nostradumbass?  I don’t know.  But someone who can produce that should be getting more pub than he has.  I’m righting wrongs like a modern day superhero.  Well, not really, but I am wearing a cape.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10

Brandon Wood – The Angels trust him at 3rd about as much as The Old Man trusts Chumlee, but they gotta give Wood the keys to the Imperial at some point.  Don’t they?  2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7 <–optimistic, but whatever

1.  Hanley Ramirez – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

2.  Troy Tulowitzki – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Rollins.  I call this tier, “Even the elite shortstops are no guarantees.”  Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

4.  Jose Reyes – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

5. Derek Jeter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Zobrist.  I call this tier, “Overrated.”  I’m not going to draft Jeter in any leagues.  Some crazed Noo Yawker will get him before I can even think about it.  I do like him a bit more going into 2010 than I did in last season’s preseason after seeing how hitter-friendly The Stadium Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built is.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

6. Jason Bartlett – I don’t buy into Bartlett’s 2009.  In October, I said, “I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.”  That was a *pinkie to mouth*  Bartlett Quotation.  Okay, so January Grey’s here to say, February Grey’s got nothing on me.  Bartlett more than doubled his homer per fly ball rate so I don’t believe the 14 homers, either.  Average outlier + power outlier + repeatable, but not blazing speed = Pass.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

7. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

8. Elvis Andrus – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Asdrubal.  I call this tier, “Since there’s so few top shortstops, we’re left with upside.” Andrus is ranked ahead of Alexei and Drew simply because his value comes from speed and that doesn’t just disappear, unlike guys whose value is predicated on power.  Can Andrus jump into the upper tiers like Drew and Alexei can?  It’s possible, and they have more downside.  They’re all real close and I could see taking any of them depending on how you’re assembling your team.  Your eyes want more?  Elvis Andrus sleeper.  2010 Projections:  75/8/50/.270/37

9. Alexei Ramirez – I’m usually a peaceful person, but this guy made me want to choke someone out last year.  Preferably Alexei.  His homers should bounce back a bit from last year, but his .277 average looks pretty right on.  He’s established that he starts slow, so if you do draft him keep that in mind.  2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15

10. Stephen Drew – Rising ground ball rate, falling fly ball rate… Who’s this guy trying to be, Luis Castillo?  Hit the ball in the air!  After his 2008 season, Drew had more promise than the first twenty minutes of Inglourious Basterds.  Then Drew’s 2009 was spent running a French movie theater and falling in love with a black guy.  Hopefully, Drew’s 2010 can be set in a tavern basement and get the ball rolling again.  2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over Asdrubal in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

12. Yunel Escobar – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Peralta.  I call this tier, “I’m punting this tier.”  Yunel could get to 17 homers (a long shot), but he has the speed of a man 300 pounds heavier, assuming that man isn’t Pablo Sandoval.  2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3

14. Miguel Tejada – On C-SPAN, Jim Bunning is arguing in front of Congress that Tejada’s high average last year should be withdrawn from all official records because of a high BABIP.  2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4

14. J.J. Hardy – I’ll give this to Hardy, I almost dropped him to the Furcal tier, indicating I would almost draft him.  Maybe in my horseshoes or hand grenade draft.  2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260

15. Marco Scutaro – Marco…. Scutaro… Whatevero.  2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7

16. Erick Aybar – I get a utility man vibe from Aybar.  If you draft him, there’s a 95% chance of you dropping him before May.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17

17. Jhonny Peralta – If you don’t have nothing nice to say, then don’t say nothing.  2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265

18. Rafael Furcal – This is the last tier.  This tier I call, “These are fliers I’m taking a chance on late.”  Furcal’s a bit of a wild card to even be around still by this tier.  Someone will draft him earlier, totally forgetting what happened last year Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer-style.  Others will see his last month as a sign of good things to come.  If he’s around at the end of your draft, I’d take a flier that there’s still a bit left in the tank.  He is admittedly not a very exciting flier.  Hey, they can’t all be Alcides Escobar.  2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20

19.  Alcides Escobar – I compared him to a 2009 Elvis Andrus in the Alcides Escobar fantasy sleeper post.  Go look at it.  Go ahead.  The Royal We will be here.  2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40

20. Ryan Theriot – Feels like a poor man’s Alcides… Or maybe it’s a conservative man’s Alcides.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22

There’s lots of guys after the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, but these two stand out:

Ian Desmond – Went over him in my Ian Desmond Fantasy sleeper, keeper, something or other post.  2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20

Everth Cabrera -  Here it is.  The last guy you could conceivably take and still get an affirmative head nod from yours truly.  You want that affirmative head nod or not?  It’s up to you.  If you need 30-plus steals late in your draft, then EverCab can do the trick.  (EverCab is also available for bar mitzvahs.)  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35