Fantasy Baseball Advice

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  The 2011 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really want a top 3rd baseman.  I ain’t mucking around.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Evan Longoria – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Longoria’s projections.

2. David Wright – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Wright’s projections.

3. Ryan Zimmerman – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Zimmerman’s projections.

4. Alex Rodriguez – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is A-Rod’s projections.

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball for Youkilis’s projections.  (Note:  He might not have 3rd base eligibility when the season starts, but he’ll get it soon enough.)

6. Mark Reynolds – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Casey McGehee.  I call this tier, “Where the hell are all the top 3rd basemen?”  If someone sees the top 20 3rd basemen, send them in my direction.  I went over the Reynolds fantasy move to The Big ‘More.  The gist of that post is he won’t be as bad as he was in 2010 or as good in 2009.  You go read it yourself, I only counted three tipos.  2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12

7. Adrian Beltre – I went over my Beltre fantasy when he moved to the Lone Star state.  To be completely honest with you, before he signed with the Rangers, he was in the tier of players I’m avoiding.  His move bumped him up to a more attractive tier.  I’m sure his mother is proud.  2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

8. Michael Young – I’m worried that the bottom on Young’s power is going to drop out.  His HR/FB% last year came down from its high of 2009, but it can still come down further.  Then you throw in a guy who’s aging and still refuses to take a walk.  I think his career decline is going to come fast and hard.  Like a 14 homer, 3 steal season is around the corner.  2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5

9. Casey McGehee – He’s more or less Pablo Sandoval with a bit more power and less average.  And that is the first time anyone’s ever been more Pablo Sandoval.  Usually they’re less.  Personally, I want power over average so I’d lean towards McGehee.  Plus, his average shouldn’t be terrible without some bad luck.  2011 Projections:  75/24/90/.280

10. Pedro Alvarez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Aramis.  I call this tier, “I’m going all in on one of these guys if I don’t get an elite 3rd baseman because shizz gets drastic after these two.”  I already went over my Pedro Alvarez fantasy.  If I miss out on the top 3rd basemen, Alvarez is the guy I want in every league.  He is Julio Upsidiero for 2011.  He needs a fantasy sleeper post to really beat into your heads how much you need him.  (Yes, I’ve even thought about how scary it’s going to be being pot-committed to watching the Pirates.)  2011 Projections:  70/27/85/.260/3

11. Aramis Ramirez – I only like Aramis because I’m all out of Drakkar.  See what I did there?!  It’s cologne humor!  I like Aramis this year because he seems to be going pretty cheaply in drafts.  Is he suddenly going to hit 35+ homers again?  Sure, and just because you replaced your Mom’s name on your cellphone with Natalie Portman it means it’s the star of Black Swan calling you three times a day.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280

12. Jose Bautista – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Sandoval.  I call this tier, “No, thanks.”  Anyone who is drafting Bautista is out of their flippin’ mind.  There, I said it.  I don’t even know how anyone’s drafting a guy who went from 13 homers in 113 games in 2009 to 54 homers in 161 games.  Doesn’t that just ring a bit weird for you drafters of Bautista?   His HR/FB% for his career is 13.8%.  Last year, it was 21.7%.  That’s absurd.  If you remove his best average month of July, he hit .242 in 471 other at-bats.  That was in his best season!  There’s still no warning signs?  How about the fact that once pitchers realized he was using a corked bat with Sammy Sosa’s signature on it, he hit .224 in September and October?  Still not enough?  Eh, go back and stick your head in the sand.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5

13. Pablo Sandoval – You know who Pablo Sandoval looks like?  No, not Rerun.  He looks like a young Lyle Overbay.  I obviously mean, his stats look like a young Overbay.  High teen power, good average.  It’s a’ight, I suppose, but if he struggles out of the gate the Giants won’t extend his leash anywhere near how long they did last year.  2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3

14. Placido Polanco – This tier goes from here until Rolen.  I call this tier, “There are so many more 3rd basemen that I don’t want compared to ones that I do want.” Went over Polanco’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

15. Chase Headley – I actually recommended him last year.  Well, they’re not all world wide web gems.  I obviously forgot he plays his home games at Petco.  In 295 ABs at home, 3 homers and a .237 average.  Last year Luis Polonia hit better in the Sexual Predator League at Rikers.  2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7

16. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

17. Scott Rolen – Post-All-Star break he had 188 ABs and 3 homers.  That’s someone you should draft.  Maybe you can platoon him in and out with Troy Glaus.  2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275

18. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “You have nothing here but upside. Meaning:  you may get nothing.”  I know, Ian Stewart buckled under the pressure of being nicknamed, Mini Mini Donkey.  It was a lot of brays to live up to.  So why do I still believe in him?  Because he really didn’t buckle under the pressure, he just didn’t get enough ABs.  With an everyday job, he’s a 25-30 homer, 5 steals and a .260ish average.  Of course, you might end up drafting Nadir Bupkis if Wigginton steals a lot of playing time from him.  Stewart will definitely see his share of the bench vs. lefties.  In this bear market of third basemen, it’s worth the flier on Stewart in the endgame.  2011 Projections:  65/22/75/.260/5

19. Chris Johnson – Is it bad when two of the bigger upside picks come from the Pirates and Astros?  Yes, yes it is.  Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.  2011 Projections:  65/20/80/.260/3 (<–optimistic but whatevs)

20. Danny Valencia – I see your upside, Danny Valencia, and I’m not that impressed.  Listen, you’re real deep into a position by this point.  If you draft Valencia, there’s a good chance you’re going to drop him by April 10th for a guy who starts out hot.  If Valencia starts off hot, then maybe you can flip him for a better piece.  If this doesn’t sound like the greatest upside pick in the world, it probably isn’t.  Best case scenario, he hits 17 homers with a good average.  It’s a’ight.  2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.300

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but here’s two that stand out:

Mike Moustakas – I already went over my Moustakas fantasy.  It involves some PG-13 nudity.  2011 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

David Freese – I’d actually rank Freese above Chris Johnson overall if he’s healthy.  I only slotted him down here to highlight him.  If he shows up to camp healthy, he could surprise with some power.  In 464 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, he hit 26 homers.  In 2009, he hit a homer every 20 at-bats.  He’s probably not going to blow your mind with his stats, but he’s being drafted crazy late, if at all, and could surprise.  2011 Projections:  70/20/80/.300/3

With the the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball, we’ve finished our recap of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Some will feel like it came too soon, others will think let’s get 2011 under way already!  Whichever camp you fall in, don’t eat cherimoya seeds, they are poisonous.  This is our final look back.  This is still a look back.  It is not how I’d rank them for 2011 aka next year.  As with the other rankings, the final rankings come from ESPN’s Player Rater.  I did this so I could objectively critique MY preseason rankings to THEIRS.  Their rankings for closers weigh wins when I’d just want saves, but whatevs.  At least it’s unbiased.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Billy Wagner – There’s a theme in the top 20 closers we need to address.  Where I ranked them (or didn’t rank them at all) compared to where they ended up is all over the place.  Now you can either think I’m a jerkoff or you can realize how unpredictable closers are.  This is why you never pay for closers.  The ones that you think will do good end up disappointing (Broxton) or flat-out suck (Frank Francisco).  Then there’s the ones that just come out of nowhere.  It all comes back to SAGNOF!  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves, Final Numbers: 7-2/1.43/0.87/104, 34 saves

2. Rafael Soriano – Never doubted Soriano’s ability… Well, I doubted his ability to stay healthy.  This year is Soriano staying healthy.  Maybe it was Soriano pitching more to contact this year that helped.  He definitely didn’t put up his best K season, but it was easily his best save season.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/1.73/0.80/57, 45 saves

3. Heath Bell – Wavy lines appear and we’re back in the 2010 preseason.  You, “I’m not touching Bell, he’s getting traded.”  Me, “Don’t worry about trade rumors in March.  Lots of hoops to jump though before a trade happens and maybe he’s the closer on the new team if he is traded.”  You, “Hoopz is spelled with a Z, I saw it on Flavor of Love.  Now shut your mustache!”  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  6-1/1.93/1.20/86, 47 saves

4. Brian Wilson – This year he was The Machine.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.81/1.18/93, 48 saves

5. Neftali Feliz – He was ranked last January… For starters.  Since this is really just about me, Feliz hurt me more than any other closer because I A) Owned Frank² in many leagues. B) Didn’t own Feliz.  C) Aren’t the first two enough hurt for one man?  Preseason Unranked for Closers, Final Numbers: 4-3/2.73/0.88/71, 40 saves

6. Joakim Soria – Here’s one of those places where ESPN is giving too much weight to wins.  Soria is being docked for only one win, but you don’t own closers for wins.  Are the vulture wins nice?  Sure, and so is an extra scoop in your Fribble™, but you don’t need it, you glutton.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves, Final Numbers: 1-2/1.78/1.05/71, 41 saves

7. Carlos Marmol – In the comments on the preseason rankings for closers, there were variations of the same comment.  “You’re being silly with your Marmol projections and where you’re ranking him.  He’s too wild.”  Looking at my preseason projections compared to his final stats, I wasn’t being silly enough.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.55/1.18/138, 38 saves

8. Matt Capps – Capps really should’ve won the Razzballie for top SAGNOF closer.  He wasn’t the best closer (obviously).  He wasn’t as cheap as Feliz, but, I’d contend that once Feliz got the job people respected what he could do.  No one really wanted the Nats closer in the preseason and assumed during the season that Storen would take over at any moment.  Then Capps ran with the job and the Twins job too.  Preseason Rank #21, Final Numbers:  5-3/2.47/1.26/59, 42 saves

9. Mariano Rivera – The ratios look fine, but this is the beginning of the end for Rivera.  He had the most blown saves in 7 years, he had by his worst K-rate in four years and he’s turning 41 in November.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.80/0.83/45, 33 saves

10. John Axford – After Feliz, Axford was the best pickup for relievers.  The crazy thing is he was probably available to everyone for longer than most because no one expected him to replace Hoffman for as long as he did and, even as his reign seemed to be going well, people were still concerned Hoffman would return to the role.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  8-2/2.48/1.19/76, 24 saves

11. Jonathan Papelbon – For the first time in his career, his dancing wasn’t the ugliest part of his game.  He gave up more than twice the amount of runs from 2008 to 2009.  The most homers and walks allowed of his career.  And his 2nd lowest save total.  It couldn’t happen to a douchier seeming guy.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  5-7/3.90/1.27/76, 37 saves

12. Hong-Chih Kuo – Kinda unfair ranking him this high because, outside of deep leagues, you probably didn’t own him for most of these stats even if you did own him.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-2/1.20/0.78/73, 12 saves

13. Francisco Cordero – He seems like one of the few relievers who blows saves and doesn’t look pretty even when he converts but there’s never any talk about him losing his job.  That’s Dusty ball!  Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections:  3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  6-5/3.84/1.43/59, 40 saves

14. Ryan Franklin – Another one of those ESPN glitches.  Franklin was fine last year, but his six wins are artificially boosting his value.  For instance, Aardsma was just as good with more saves, but had an 0-6 record.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-2/3.46/1.03/42, 27 saves

15. Chris Perez - Again, there’s probably a good chance you didn’t own him for this whole season’s stats.  If you did, well played.  If you didn’t and are saying you did, why lie?  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 2-2/1.71/1.08/61, 23 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – In 2009, the Mets had an incident when a shirtless VP, Tony Bernazard, challenged players to a fight.  In 2010, K-Rod made every Thanksgiving very awkward for as long as he’s married to his wife.  My prediction for 2011 is Mr. Met gets a DUI.  He just looks like a rummy.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.20/1.15/67, 25 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, I have Bailey ranked lower than most other ‘perts.”  I also ranked him 17th and that’s where he ended up.  Natch that!  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections:  2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves, Final Numbers:  1-3/1.47/0.96/42, 25 saves

18. Leo Nunez – Ranked here and he barely got into September with the closing job.  Remember, into the month of August, he had an ERA of 2.64.  He’ll be one of my favorite closer sleepers next year, assuming he’s the closer next year, which I think he will be, and, yes, this sentence ran away from me and I just started throwing in commas, but whatevs.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/3.46/1.28/71, 30 saves

19. Kevin Gregg – Anyone think Gregg will get any kind of respect next year in drafts?  Yeah, me neither.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-6/3.51/1.39/58, 37 saves

20. Jose Valverde – Had a perfectly respectable season that was only hurt because the Tigers either won by more than 4 runs or lost.  Don’t hate the player, hate the unpredictability of the save stat.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves, Final Numbers: 2-4/3.00/1.16/63, 26 saves

So, how’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Carlos Gonzalez for 2011.  We’ve gone over the final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  There’s only one of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2011 fantasy shizz.  You’re welcome.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Tim Lincecum – I told you he’d be ranked number one overall!  Only hadn’t anticipated the ’2′ in front of the ’1.’  As my Polish neighbor likes to say, “What can do?” Linecum was still putting the K in kd lang, but his WHIP was a flippin’ mess.  Freak out.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.43/1.27/231

22. Jonathan Sanchez – If you didn’t know I loved me some Filthy Sanchez going into 2010, you weren’t reading the site.  Preseason Rank #82, 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.07/1.23/205

23. Brett Myers – Member how I talked about foreseeing the top 20 starters pretty clearly?  Well, you don’t have to remember.  Take my word for it.  The top 40?  Not so much.  And if you think it was just me who didn’t see these starters performing as well as they did, think about how many of these guys were on your waivers at one time or another.  R.A. Dickey, for one, was owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues the entire year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.14/1.24/180

24. Johan Santana – I thought I sorted wrong when I saw Johan ranked this high.  He didn’t seem like a top 25 pitcher to me last year.  His K-rate dropped below 7 for the first time in his career and his ERA shows that he was very lucky to only give up as many runs that he did.  Then to put a vomit-flavored cherry on the sundae, his season ended with shoulder surgery.  The days of “Should I draft Johan with my 2nd pick?” are long behind us.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200, Final Numbers:  11-9/2.98/1.18/144

25. C.J. Wilson – Had one of the more improbable seasons… If you’ve forgotten what Dempster did going from an okay reliever to a starter.  Someone needs to start the ‘Pat Neshek For Starter’ campaign.  Wilson’s IP jumped from 70+ to 200+, he gave up more than 4 walks per 9 IP and he threw his home starts in Arlington.  Maybe he stole Scott Feldman’s mojo.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.35/1.25/170

26. Ted Lilly – He was out with the an injured shoulder the first month of the season so I got cold feet.  Well, someone should’ve told me to wear my footy pajamas!  *burp*  Excuse me.  So Lilly’s proven for 3 straight seasons he’s about as reliable as they come.  Not exciting.  Reliable.  Preseason Rank #77, 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100, Final Numbers:  10-12/3.62/1.08/166

27. Shaun Marcum – Returned from Tommy John surgery and showed Chastity Bono how to make post-op look good.  Usually when TJ survivors return they’re shook ones with little control.  Marcum only threw 43 BBs vs. 165 Ks.  As they say in Spanish Harlem, that’s muy bueno, papi.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/3.64/1.15/165

28. Tommy Hanson – C.J. Wilson, Dickey, Myers, etc. etc. etc. were great last year, doesn’t mean I’m going to love them going forward.  Every year there’s 20 or so starters that overperform.  Last year Feldman, Buehrle, Happ showed up in the top 40.  Didn’t make me shove them up the rankings for the following year.  I bring this up now because Hanson is a guy that should take a step forward next year.  Preseason Rank #29, 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers:  10-11/3.33/1.17/173

29. Colby Lewis – The low din of hype that followed Lewis back from The Land of the Rising Sun was on point.  His Ks were there and his walks weren’t terrible.  On a team that won 90 games, his under .500 record is puzzling and makes me think he might not be too overrated next year, especially since no one watched the postseason.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-13/3.72/1.19/196

30. Bronson Arroyo – I was one of the biggest proponents of trading for Arroyo around the All-Star break when he starts getting in his groove, but let’s be honest.  He’s ranked this high because of his Wins.  He gets 13 Wins instead of 17 and he’s nowhere on this list.  Preseason Rank #72, 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.88/1.15/121

31. Hiroki Kuroda – This guy seems to be perennially underrated.  I might have to shove a sleeper post down… Actually, Kuroda’s just so boring I can’t write a sleeper post about him, can I?  Preseason Rank #70, 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100, Final Numbers:  11-13/3.39/1.16/159

32. Francisco Liriano – I didn’t rank Liriano but I did give him his own sleeper post.  Sounds a bit like crazy talk from a man who wears a potato sack and sings religious songs in Latin, but 2009 wasn’t kind to Liriano and it wasn’t until he rediscovered his velocity in winter ball did he get back on the fantasy map.  The final numbers are actually a bit sadder than the reality.  He was in the Cy Young race until his final few starts.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.62/1.26/201

33. John Danks – I’m going to admit to being completely perplexed by Floyd and Danks.  One year one does seemingly better and one does seemingly worse according to their ERAs and FIPs.  Next year, that reverses.  Then reverses again.  Now I know why Ozzie’s crazy.  Preseason Rank #64, 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155, Final Numbers:  15-11/3.72/1.22/162

34. Gio Gonzalez – The 2.56 ERA in Alameda makes him look like a straight homeschooler.  I’m not sure I disagree either.  His BBs are ugly, but he did lower them nearly a full one per nine.  He left a bunch of men on, which helped hide how detrimental the walks could’ve been.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-9/3.23/1.31/171

35. Carl Pavano – Here’s another guy that probably won’t be draftable next year, but turned in a good season thanks to Wins.  If you think he had a good season outside of Wins, look at his 117 Ks in 221 IP.  That’s pretty unmanly.  And that hurts me to say because we are brothers in ‘stache.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-11/3.75/1.19/117

36. Max Scherzer – The train completely derailed in the month of May, where he posted a 9.45 ERA.  Then he was reborn in the holy Toledo water and returned to post a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break.  It was a reminder that he was once referred to by the name Jobacum because of his similarity to Joba and Lincecum, and that was when that was a big compliment.  Preseason Rank #31, 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.50/1.25/184

37. R.A. Dickey – The valuable lesson to take away from this top 40 is — you could’ve drafted Beckett, Baker and Lackey as your first three starters and there’s still plenty of pitchers to grab to replace them.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-9/2.84/1.19/104

38. Ryan Dempster – Wow, 208 Ks from Dempster.  Wow.  Due to getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a 32.2% rate, he recorded his highest K-rate of his career at the age of 33.  The way he’s going, by the time he’s forty he’s going to win a Cy Young.  Preseason Rank #27, 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.85/1.32/208

39. Dan Haren – Overall, disappointing year for a top 10 pitcher going into the preseason, but it could’ve been much worse.  A notorious 1st half pitcher coupled with the switch of leagues sounds like a guy that got pulverized in the 2nd half.  Yeah, didn’t work out that way.  1st half ERA was 4.36.  2nd half was 3.34.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200, Final Numbers:  12-12/3.91/1.27/216

40. Jaime Garcia – He went slightly over the amount of innings he should’ve thrown.  Like, oh, 125 2/3 IP too many.  I doubt La Russa would abuse a squirrel’s arm that egregiously.  Without knowing any advanced metrics or having a big brain like Brad, it’s pretty obvious from Garcia’s WHIP that he left a shizzload* of runners on base.  (*A shizzload is smaller than a crapton, but still larger than a shizzton.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/2.70/1.32/132

All the final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters is done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2011 (caps for those still wearing their Piranha 3-D glasses).  This is a recap.  Will these affect next year’s rankings?  Sure.  But not entirely.  To recapitulate, these rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater.  It’s an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is the Tootie and I’m the Natalie?  No, just an unbiased comparison.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay – Now I’m either a freakin’ genius or I’m lucky as a leprechaun standing under a pigeon who just ate Mexican food.  I’d like to think it’s the former.  There’s only one surprising name in this group of 20 starters, who I’ll get to in a bit.  Did I rank all of these guys exactly as they ended up?  No, I’m not Ms. Cleo.  But if you would’ve asked me if I you should draft 18 of 20 of these starters, I would’ve said sure.  Carpenter I wasn’t a fan of, but he’s not completely surprising.  It’s no wonder that in all of my leagues, my pitching was beyond respectable (except for wins).  Continued in Wainwright’s blurb.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185, Final Numbers:  21-10/2.44/1.04/219

2. Adam Wainwright – I never drafted a pitcher before the 3rd round and, if I did draft one there, I’d lay off starters for 4 to 5 rounds.  It wasn’t like I sat there and drafted Johan, Greinke and F-Her.  If I did, I would’ve been screwed.  I’d grab F-Her then much later Baby Weaver then later Oswalt then Jonathan Sanchez.  If you don’t think that’s a solid top 4 in a league with 12 or more teams, you need to lay off the glue sniffing.  Continued in F-Her’s blurb.  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections: 16-8/3.30/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.42/1.05/213

3. Felix Hernandez – The projections might not be exactly on for these starters, but 18 of the 20 starters here all fell in a preseason grouping of starters that I was excited about drafting.  As for Felix… Sure, F-Her blew when it came to wins, but you can’t fault him for that.  Well, I mean, you can, but then you’d be Joe Morgan.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections: 18-6/3.00/1.10/220, Final Numbers:  13-12/2.27/1.06/232

4. Ubaldo Jimenez – Here’s what I said in the preseason, “Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Though the 2nd half for Ubaldo was a worry with a 4.15 ERA.  Though II, The Return of Though, the first half was insane.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.27/200, Final Numbers:  19-8/2.88/1.15/214

5. Roy Oswalt – I realize he was on the Astros for half the year, so there’s goes those wins, but what explains his only 7 wins on the best NL team in the 2nd half?  I asked it, so I’ll answer it.  My win karma is why.  Sorry, Oswalt and all Oswalt owners.  I’m currently meditating 3 hours a day in hopes of turning around my bad win karma.  Preseason Rank #28, 2010 Projections: 12-6/3.65/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  13-13/2.76/1.03/193

6. Jered Weaver – “Okay, but is Weaver really this good?”  That’s you.  Here’s me, “He led the major leagues in strikeouts.”  Unlike Wins, you don’t back into that.  I already touched a bit on my 2011 Jered Weaver fantasy.  Preseason Rank #24, 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.22/180, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.01/1.07/233

7. CC Sabathia – He had his worst WHIP in 5 years.  His worst K-rate in 5 years.  His worst walk rate in 5 years.  His luckiest with men left on base in his career.  Paradoxically, his ground ball rate went up.  You may be looking at the beginning of the end for Prince Fielder’s stunt double.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections: 20-10/3.45/1.17/200, Final Numbers:  21-7/3.18/1.19/197

8. David Price – In honor of December Grey, here’s his David Price sleeper post from last year.  The Price was right, snitches!  Preseason Rank #26, 2010 Projections: 12-9/3.75/1.30/155, Final Numbers:  19-6/2.72/1.19/188

9. Cliff Lee – PETA would’ve appreciated The Adverb’s season because there was hardly any balls.  In all seriousness, spay and neuter your adverbs.  Preseason Rank #13, 2010 Projections: 15-8/3.40/1.22/160, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.18/1.00/185

10. Justin Verlander – Technically, not a bad season from Verlander, but why does it feel like I was annoyed every time he was starting a game?  Oh, I know.  His BAA vs. the 1st hitter was .291, which is 25 points worse than any other hitter.  Verlander was also terrible in the first inning and in April (5.53 ERA).  Idea bulb!  Bring Valverde in for the first inning then let Verlander close out the final 8.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections: 17-11/3.25/1.20/230, Final Numbers:  18-9/3.37/1.16/219

11. Jon Lester – If you throw out the final start of the year, Lester’s ERA was below 3.  If you throw out 2 wins, 2 losses, 10 Ks and add an extra 3 earned runs, my projections were right on.  If you throw out the year 2000, my stock portfolio would still be worth something.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections: 17-7/3.35/1.20/215, Final Numbers:  19-9/3.25/1.20/225

12. Josh Johnson – He’s like a rich man’s Erich Bedarden.  I guess it could be worse.  He could’ve pitched more than one start in September and had the results of Latos.  Speaking of which… Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.35/1.22/175, Final Numbers:  11-6/2.30/1.11/186

13. Mat Latos – Had four straight months of an ERA below 2.38.  In September, his ERA was 6.21.  I’m pretty bummed that the Padres pitched him so many innings and now it’s going to be hard to own him next year.  Oh, well.  I’ll see you in 2012, Latos.  Preseason Rank #68, 2010 Projections: 6-7/4.15/1.32/125, Final Numbers:  14-10/2.92/1.08/189

14. Tim Hudson – There were about three months in the season where I kept saying Hudson was getting lucky and his ERA would raise.  Didn’t really work out that way.  I did like Hudson in the preseason, so I didn’t count him in the 2 starters from this list I wouldn’t have owned.  I would’ve probably sold him some time in July though.  Preseason Rank #59, 2010 Projections: 13-5/3.55/1.32/145, Final Numbers:  17-9/2.83/1.15/139

15. Matt Cain – Cain continued his bafflement of the Fangraphs Database.  As I said towards the end of the season, I’m done saying Cain’s getting lucky.  He is, but I’m done saying.  Okay, I’m not done saying it, but I am.  If you catch my drift…  He was lucky!  Preseason Rank #32, 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.25/165, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.14/1.08/177

16. Clayton Kershaw – If Dodgers won 90 games and Kershaw won 20 games, he’s in the Cy Young conversation.  I’m not saying this to defend my preseason Cy Young selection of Kershaw, but I am, so there.  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections: 12-4/3.20/1.22/200, Final Numbers:  13-10/2.91/1.18/212

17. Trevor Cahill – The only completely surprising name in this entire list.  I would’ve bet against him being a top 20 starter.  So does that mean I’m moron or Cahill was lucky last year?  They’re unrelated.  Both can be true and at times are true.  Cahill’s FIP was 4+ and his K-rate was egregious.  Cahill had no business having the season he had.  Preseason Rank #81, 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185, Final Numbers:  18-8/2.97/1.11/118

18. Chris Carpenter – This name isn’t surprising and is surprising.  It’s surprising because I figured Carp would get hurt, it’s not surprising because when he’s healthy he has been solid.  Preseason Rank #18, 2010 Projections: 14-7/3.10/1.05/135, Final Numbers:  16-9/3.22/1.18/179

19. Cole Hamels – After a subpar 2008, I predicted a nice bounce back for Hamels.  Well, here ya go.  Had the best K-rate of his career in a full season and had a 2.23 ERA in the 2nd half of the year.  It’s true, I have a small crush on Hamels.  We all have our crosses to bear, especially if you’re Mr. T.  Preseason Rank #11, 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.45/1.15/185, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.06/1.18/211

20. Clay Buchholz – I’ll tell ya what, I was kinda crazy for Buchholz in the preseason and he ended up okay with all the wins and decent, if misleading ERA, but his lack of Ks is downright scary.  Who jacked him for his Ks?  It’s kinda appropriate that his name uses all hard Cs.  Preseason Rank #41, 2010 Projections: 14-9/3.95/1.34/155, Final Numbers:  17-7/2.33/1.20/120

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the hitter recaps.  We meaning me, but I’ll include you.  No, that’s not a cue to try to hold my hand.  (Here’s all the final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  The pitching recap will begin next.  To recap, the end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Nelson Cruz – I’d argue, as I’m about to do, that Cruz was actually more valuable than his ranking here if you played in a shallow enough league where you were able to reasonably replace him every time he got hurt.  Say Cruz and a hot couple of weeks from Coco Crisp and you were snap, crack and poppin’.  Preseason Rank #17, 2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15, Final Numbers:  60/22/78/.318/17

22. Delmon Young – I’m actually a bit worried about Young for next year, but I guess I’ll leave that to January.  For this year, Young almost reached his potential.  His numbers look like a poor man’s Holliday, which isn’t bad.  He has a little bit of everything, except RBIs, where he excelled, but RBIs are really hard to count on.  Preseason Rank #63, 2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7, Final Numbers:  77/21/112/.298/5

23. Drew Stubbs – He had one of those top 40 outfielder seasons where he went from being a must-own to a must-bench to a must-drop.  Some absolutely brutal stretches — June, 2 homers and a .230 average; April, 1 homer and a .186 average.  Finally, I’m not sure where the power has come from.  In his last full season at Triple-A, he hit 3 homers in 472 plate appearances.  Hit 7 homers in 548 PAs in 2008.  In his short time in the majors, he’s averaging 16.4% HR/FB, blowing his minor league numbers away.  Preseason Rank #49, 2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35, Final Numbers:  91/22/77/.255/30

24. Shane Victorino – 18 homers was very nice from a guy who can steal 35 bases.  His HR/FB% was a bit high for him so it’s probably only a one year boost in power, but the amount of fly balls compared to last year makes it seem like he was going for the fences a bit more.  Also explains the dip in average, along with some unluckiness.  Preseason Rank #22, 2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30, Final Numbers:  84/18/69/.259/34

25. Nick Swisher – Went over him in top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

26. B.J. Upton – I’m unabashedly a fan, if unabashedly means what I think it does.  Crawford ranked number 2 overall for outfielders and the only thing separating him from Upton is a lucky average year.  If Upton hits .280, his Runs will go up because Buddy Holly will leave him at the top of the order.  He’ll get on base more for more steals and he’ll be a top 5 outfielder.  Unabashedly!  Preseason Rank #10, 2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40, Final Numbers:  89/18/62/.237/42

27. Michael Bourn – Bourn masturbates to pictures of Juan Pierre.  Preseason Rank #40, 2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55, Final Numbers:  84/2/38/.265/52

28. Scott Podsednik – Turned in a Juan Pierre, in the non-French way, season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  63/6/51/.297/35

29. Adam Dunn – Went over him in top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

30. Vernon Wells – I’ll admit to staying stubborn thinking there was no way he was putting together the season he did, but after 3 straight sub-par years Color Me Surprised he did do what he did, dude.  Who knew everyone on the 1927 Blue Jays would hit so many homers?  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10, Final Numbers:  79/31/88/.273/6

31. Austin Jackson – At some point in December, MLB is going to disallow 15 of Jackson’s lucky hits and knock his average down to .275.  Watch!  Preseason Rank #75, 2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22, Final Numbers:  103/4/41/.293/27

32. Matt Kemp – I really thought 2010 was going to be the breakout Kemp season that we’re due.  Now, unfortunately, we’re overdue.  In fairness — though I’m not sure why I’m being fair to this guy — Kemp had the worst season he could possibly have and still had a top 40 outfielder season.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to be a sucker for a certain 30/30 potential, 26-year-old next year too.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32, Final Numbers:  82/28/89/.249/19

33. Torii Hunter – I have two words for you for what Hunter is going to do next year, Carloslee Thisyear.  Preseason Rank #29, 2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17, Final Numbers:  76/23/90/.281/9

34. Bobby Abreu – For this piece of under-performance art, I’m going to give you 20/20 but lose the average.  Next year, the power and speed will be gone.  Finally, I’ll be a bench player until I retire.  I call this, “The Piecemeal Collapse of Bobby Abreu.”  Preseason Rank #21, 2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20, Final Numbers:  88/20/78/.255/24

35. Andres Torres – I had love for Torres this year like he was Mondo from Project Runway.  Was one of those guys that had no business producing as well as he did, yet his hot streak seemed to last forever until he got aufed by his appendix.  Then he returned from his emergency appendectomy and produced again.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/16/63/.268/26

36. Colby Rasmus – I ended 2009 with a Colby Rasmus sleeper post, then reminded everyone in the outfielders to target post in March.  Finally, when I had enough, I told you to sell him mid-June.  In the 3 months before the sell, 16 homers, 9 steals.  3 months after that post, 7 homers and 3 steals.  Yeah, it’s like that.  Preseason Rank #47, 2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14, Final Numbers:  85/23/66/.276/12

37. Andre Ethier – I really think Ethier pays off someone over at the WWL to get ranked this high on their Player Rater.  He had 23 homers and 2 steals.  Really?  Really?!  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers:  71/23/82/.292/2

38. Jay Bruce – I gave you a little love with the Jay Bruce sleeper post and ranked him high compared to most.  Not all though.  Someone named Bill James predicted Bruce would get 38 homers and 10 steals.  Maybe he thought he was Chris Davis.  Preseason Rank #36, 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15, Final Numbers:  80/25/70/.281/5

39. Justin Upton – Not gonna lie, this was a disappointing season for Upton.  There’s really not much positive to take away from it.  He didn’t have any extended hot stretches to carry your team and practically abandoned your team late-June.  His post-All-Star break numbers were 3 homers and 6 steals.  That’s a nice week… For Mike Aviles!  Now Justin finds out he’s a carrier of the Upton bad shoulder gene.  Can we pretend like 2010 never happened for J-Upside?  Please and thank you.  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20, Final Numbers:  73/17/69/.273/17

40. Jason Heyward – The mollywhopping, 1930s matinee idol surname having, Frank Thomas gams possessing, love child of Hank Aaron and a Yeti, Jason Heyward produced numbers above where I thought he’d be.  Not far above, but above.  And he missed time on the DL.  Hello, sexy.  (Here’s my Jason Heyward 2011 fantasy baseball, um, fantasy.) Preseason Rank #73, 2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20, Final Numbers:  83/18/72/.277/11