Fantasy Baseball Advice

Razzball Point Shares are now up for the following 5×5 league formats:

MLB 10-team league

MLB 12-team league

MLB 14-team league

MLB 16-team league

Point Shares are our proprietary methodology for ranking players.  See here for a primer.  If you’re in a rush or don’t care to read a methodology post, these rankings estimate a player’s impact on a team’s points vs. the average drafted player at that position.  Ever wonder what the value is of , say, Carl Crawford’s SBs?  Our estimate in a 12-team league is 3.3 points – so if you have a team with average speed and Crawford, you’ll fall close to 10 points (average is 6.5 + 3.3).  How bad does Jacoby Ellsbury’s HR/RBI hurt you vs. an average OF?   He costs you 1.6 points in HR and another 1.5 points in RBI (that’s why he comes in at #102 vs. the very high pick in other rankings).

I don’t recommend that you use this as a de facto draft rankings.  You have to factor in how the other teams in your league will value players.  No reason to draft a player a few rounds before anyone else will.

You’ll find that Point Shares value pitchers more than any set of drafters ever would.  Before you go all crazy and draft 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds, remember that these estimates are based on adding  a player to the average team.  Once you add a stud pitcher like Lincecum, your pitching staff is way above average.  Any additional pitcher will have less incremental value.  Unlike Spinal Tap’s amplifiers, you can’t go past 10 in a category if you’re in a 10 team league no matter how much you dominate.

In the next week or so, we’ll be posting 8-team, 10-team, and 12-team AL-only and NL-only.

Comment below if you have any questions…

I’m a pretty harsh critic of Razzball, but occasionally we’ll post things that I even feel are extremely helpful.  Usually these are done by other people for our site.  One of those things was the Fantasy Baseball War Room. (Now with an NL-Only and AL-Only version.)  Another helpful thingie-ma-whosie is the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers, brought to you by regular commenter and all-around solid F.O.R., Figgy.   This fantasy baseball tier sheet is like the Cliff Notes version of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings. The tiers give you where I ranked players, their ADPs and the tier names which should give you a rough idea of what I’m thinking when you don’t have much time.

If you’re in a tight squeeze in a draft and you don’t have time to look at a dozen different posts or read everything I wrote about a player, you just look at the fantasy baseball tiers and you know quickly know where a guy ranks and a snapshot of what I’m thinking.  For instance, you see Manny Ramirez sitting there in your draft. You quickly scan the fantasy baseball tiers and see I have him below lots of names and right behind Carlos Lee.  Their ADPs say Lee is at 70 and Manny is at 62, so I like Lee more than Manny, but others don’t.  I also say, “This is your father’s fantasy baseball outfield.”  So you can quickly infer I’m saying these guys are old and are on the way down rather than up.  There’s a place for solid but unexciting, but that’s exactly what you’re getting there.  You look at the 2nd tier in the 1st basemen and you can quickly see I like Morneau better than Youuuuuk and Mini Donkey though their ADPs say others like them in the reverse order.  Anyway, you get the gist.  Now thank Figgy.

Also, frequent commenter, Steve went the extra mile and put my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball into a spreadsheet.  Okay, now thank Steve.

Finally, we added a new category to the Fantasy Baseball Team Name Generator.  I got the Pseudo-Intellectual Andujars.  But don’t tell him.

Finally, we come to the end of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Can we start games already?)  Okay, you know that I like Rickie Weeks better than Howie Kendrick in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010.  You know I like Jay Bruce better than Nolan Reimold as seen at the top 40 outfielders for 2010.  But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Rickie Weeks above Jay Bruce?  Nope.  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a 2010 fantasy baseball top 300.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  If you have a shortstop already and Andrus is still on the board in the 12th round, you don’t draft him if you see Bruce and you need an outfielder, even though Bruce is below Andrus on this list.  So I might take someone at 200 over someone at 180?  Yes, every draft is different.  With the top 10, there’s almost no latitude.  With the top 100, there’s a bit more.  With a top 300, there’s lots of latitude.  You taking someone at 185 is more or less the same as someone else taking someone at 225.  So if you see someone at 250th, but want them at 200, then do what you do.  Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  The top 100 and top 300 is what I would have at my drafts, along with the Point Shares and the top 20 rankings posts.  I already went over a top 100 for 2010 Fantasy Baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again.  This top 300 will go from 101 to 300.  Finally, see our list of all players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the 2010 fantasy baseball top 300:

100. Johnny Damon – 2010 Projections:  100/20/75/.290/15
101. Nate McLouth – 2010 Projections:  95/20/75/.260/20
102. Hunter Pence – 2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.295/15
103. Carlos Marmol – 2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves
104. Jose Lopez – 2010 Projections:  75/22/90/.275/3
105. Vladimir Guerrero – 2010 Projections:  70/26/90/.310/3
106. Yovani Gallardo – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.85/1.32/175
107. Jake Peavy – 2010 Projections:  10-5/3.35/1.15/145
108. Francisco Rodriguez – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves
109. Joakim Soria – 2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves
110. David Aardsma – 2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves
111. Chipper Jones – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5
112. Miguel Montero – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280
113. Elvis Andrus – 2010 Projections:  80/8/50/.270/37
114. Alexei Ramirez – 2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15
115. Matt Garza – 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200
116. Jered Weaver – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180
117. Jose Valverde – 2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves
118. Scott Baker – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170
119. Andrew McCutchen – 2010 Projections:  90/15/60/.280/30
120. Jay Bruce – 2010 Projections:  80/30/95/.270/7
121. Carlos Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  85/18/70/.275/20
122. Brian Wilson – 2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves
123. Francisco Cordero – 2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves
124. Mike Napoli – 2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5
125. Geovany Soto – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
126. Stephen Drew – 2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4
127. Garrett Jones – 2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12
128. Javier Vazquez – 2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200
129. Ryan Dempster – 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170
130. Roy Oswalt – 2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150
131. Rafael Soriano – 2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves
132. Tommy Hanson – 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175
133. Matt Cain – 2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165
134. A.J. Burnett – 2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200
135. Kevin Slowey – 2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165
136. Chris Davis – 2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7
137. Adrian Beltre – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10
138. Nolan Reimold – 2010 Projections:  85/25/95/.290/10
139. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  95/8/65/.300/20
140. Billy Wagner – 2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves
141. Clint Barmes – 2010 Projections:  65/15/75/.255/12
142. Rickie Weeks – 2010 Projections:  75/17/55/.255/15
143. David Price – 2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155
144. Michael Cuddyer – 2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5
145. Brad Hawpe – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.280
146. Jason Kubel – 2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.285
147. Corey Hart – 2010 Projections:  75/20/80/.260/17
148. Brian Fuentes – 2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves
149. Dexter Fowler – 2010 Projections:  85/10/55/.285/35
150. Andrew Bailey – 2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves
151. Ryan Franklin – 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves
152. Leo Nunez – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves
153. Frank Francisco – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves
154. Mike Gonzalez – 2010 Projections:  1-3/3.15/1.22/70, 20 saves
155. Octavio Dotel – 2010 Projections:  2-4/3.45/1.34/65, 30 saves
156. Michael Bourn – 2010 Projections:  100/4/40/.270/55
157. Johnny Cueto – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160
158. Clay Buchholz – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155
159. Ervin Santana – 2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185
160. Jorge de la Rosa – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200
161. Nyjer Morgan – 2010 Projections:  105/4/45/.300/45
162. Yunel Escobar – 2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3
163. Miguel Tejada – 2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4
164. J.J. Hardy – 2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260
165. Rafael Furcal – 2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20
166. Colby Rasmus – 2010 Projections:  85/17/65/.265/14
167. Travis Snider – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.265
168. Neftali Feliz – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120
169. Max Scherzer – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165
170. James Shields – 2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160
171. John Lackey – 2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130
172. Brandon Webb – 2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165
173. Carlos Zambrano – 2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140
174. Jorge Posada – 2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280
175. Chris Iannetta – 2010 Projections:  50/17/65/.265
176. Phil Hughes – 2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130
177. Joba Chamberlain – 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160
178. Jonathan Sanchez – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200
179. Trevor Hoffman – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.05/1.12/40, 25 saves
180. Everth Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35
181. Bengie Molina – 2010 Projections:  50/16/65/.270
182. Tim Hudson – 2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145
183. Alcides Escobar – 2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40
184. Rajai Davis – 2010 Projections:  80/4/40/.290/50
185. Julio Borbon – 2010 Projections:  90/8/40/.300/40
186. Juan Pierre – 2010 Projections:  95/1/40/.300/45
187. David Ortiz – 2010 Projections:  70/27/85/.265
188. Ryan Theriot – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22
189. Howie Kendrick – 2010 Projections:  85/12/70/.310/12
190. Cameron Maybin – 2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20
191. Marco Scutaro – 2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7
192. Erick Aybar – 2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17
193. Jhonny Peralta – 2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265
194. Ian Desmond – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20
195. Hideki Matsui – 2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.285
196. Bobby Jenks – 2010 Projections: 4-4/4.00/1.30/60, 35 saves
197. Kevin Correia – 2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135
198. Drew Stubbs – 2010 Projections:  80/7/50/.255/35
199. Casey McGehee – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.280
200. Placido Polanco – 2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/10
201. Felipe Lopez – 2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.285/10
202. Chase Headley – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10
203. Russell Branyan – 2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240
204. James Loney – 2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4
205. Michael Brantley – 2010 Projections: 55/5/65/.275/30
206. Chris Coghlan – 2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.310/15
207. Franklin Gutierrez – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.270/13
208. Paul Konerko – 2010 Projections:  55/24/75/.260
209. Carlos Guillen – 2010 Projections:  75/15/70/.285/6
210. Ryan Ludwick – 2010 Projections:  60/24/85/.270/3
211. Stephen Strasburg – 2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110
212. J.D. Drew – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275
213. Milton Bradley – 2010 Projections:  65/16/70/.280/5
214. Mike Cameron – 2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.245/14
215. Magglio Ordonez – 2010 Projections:  75/15/95/.310
216. Edwin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140
217. Francisco Liriano – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155
218. Joe Blanton – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140
219. Krispie Young – 2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15
220. Nick Swisher – 2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255
221. Delmon Young – 2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7
222. Jair Jurrjens – 2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings
223. Matt Capps – 2010 Projections: 1-5/3.75/1.40/60, 30 saves
224. Chad Qualls – 2010 Projections: 1-3/3.55/1.20/50, 25 saves
225. Brad Lidge – 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves
226. Kerry Wood – 2010 Projections:  1-3/4.45/1.34/60, 24 saves
227. Brandon Lyon – 2010 Projections:  2-2/3.65/1.28/60, 30 saves
228. Matt Lindstrom – 2010 Projections:  2-5/4.45/1.38/55, 10 saves
229. Ryan Madson – 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves
230. Lastings Milledge – 2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12
231. Jason Heyward – 2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20
232. Desmond Jennings – 2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25
233. Austin Jackson – 2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22
234. Jason Frasor – 2010 Projections:  6-2/3.65/1.28/60, 15 saves
235. Kyle Blanks – 2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3
236. Matt LaPorta – 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275
237. Gerardo Parra – 2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10
238. Scott Kazmir – 2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145
239. Michael Saunders – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15
240. Scott Sizemore – 2010 Projections:  80/14/70/.275/16
241. Brett Anderson – 2010 Projections:  9-11/4.25/1.27/135
242. Ricky Romero – 2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155
243. Randy Wolf – 2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155
244. Ben Sheets – 2010 Projections:  8-9/3.55/1.26/120
245. Rich Harden – 2010 Projections: 7-5/3.75/1.22/130
246. Gavin Floyd – 2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175
247. Ramon Hernandez – 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265
248. Eric Young Jr. – 2010 Projections:  65/1/40/.290/30
249. Jorge Cantu – 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280
250. Jermaine Dye - 2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260
251. Kurt Suzuki – 2010 Projections:  65/12/65/.270/6
252. Martin Prado – 2010 Projections:  70/8/60/.305
253. Yadier Molina – 2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5
254. A.J. Pierzynski – 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280
255. Ryan Doumit – 2010 Projections:  50/16/60/.280/3
256. Orlando Cabrera – 2010 Projections:  80/10/75/.275/15
257. Mark DeRosa – 2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3
258. Todd Helton – 2010 Projections: 70/12/80/.315
259. John Danks – 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155
260. Derek Lowe – 2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100
261. J.A. Happ – 2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155
262. Rick Porcello – 2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75
263. Daisuke Matsuzaka – 2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150
264. Joel Pineiro – 2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90
265. Mark Buehrle – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125
266. Kelly Johnson – 2010 Projections:  85/15/65/.270/10
267. Huston Street – 2010 Projections:  3-3/3.85/1.22/40, 15 saves
268. Manny Corpas – 2010 Projections:  2-4/4.35/1.32/45, 15 saves
269. Seth Smith – 2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10
270. Jake Fox – 2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250
271. Jon Rauch – 2010 Projections:  3-5/4.15/1.28/55, 25 Saves
272. Wade Davis – 2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160
273. Chris Tillman – 2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150
274. Brain Matusz – 2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145
275. Mat Latos – 2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125
276. Andy LaRoche – 2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3
277. Brandon Wood – 2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7
278. Matt Guerrier – 2010 Projections:  5-2/3.75/1.20/60, 15 Saves
279. Scott Downs – 2010 Projections:  5-4/3.85/1.30/40, 12 saves
280. Chris Young – 2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145
281. Hiroki Kuroda – 2010 Projections: 9-6/3.65/1.24/100
282. Franklin Morales – 2010 Projections: 4-5/4.50/1.40/55, 8 saves
283. Aaron Harang – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140
285. Brad Penny – 2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110
286. Brandon Morrow – 2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100
287. Homer Bailey – 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145
288. Ted Lilly – 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100
289. Aroldis Chapman – 2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70
290. Randy Wells – 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130
291. Justin Masterson – 2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150
292. Erik Bedard – 2010 Projections:  3-5/3.55/1.28/85
293. Kelly Shoppach – 2010 Projections:  55/16/65/.245
294. Miguel Olivo – 2010 Projections:  30/16/45/.245
295. Jesus Flores – 2010 Projections:  55/15/65/.250
296. Vernon Wells – 2010 Projections:  65/17/75/.265/10
297. Jeff Francoeur – 2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5
298. Juan Rivera – 2010 Projections:  65/24/75
299. Cody Ross – 2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5/.280
300. Russell Martin – 2010 Projections:  70/10/60/.280/10

With the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for every position done, we turn our lazy eye towards the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These rankings may as well been co-written by Kim Jong-il because, if those 2010 fantasy baseball rankings were the bomb, this shizz is nu-cu-lar.  None of this top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball is meant to surprise.  It’s just taking my positional rankings and putting guys in The Big Picture.  Obviously at a hundred players, some guys just didn’t make it.  About 200 or so, to be inexact.  It’s okay, there will be a top 300 too.  Shortly, Sloth, you’ll have your Baby Ruth.  Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel.  Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2010 fantasy baseball league, young premature balding man.”  Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters.  Somebody buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter!  To help with your drafting, there’s also a list of players with multiple position eligibility along with the Point Shares.  Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – I’m man enough to admit I love Poo-Holes.  2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ready to have your mind blown?  Imagine if the Red Sox didn’t trade Hanley to the Marlins.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.320/25

3. Chase Utley – Gets the edge on A-Rod for his position and pomade.  2010 Projections:  110/32/105/.300/15

4. Alex Rodriguez – Jeter’s got the market cornered on hot Latinas while A-Rod’s rocking lame ass white girls, but, unfortunately, I can’t hold that against him for fantasy.  2010 Projections:  110/36/120/.310/15

5. Ryan Braun – If he can do what I think he’s capable of, he could be number one for 2011.  2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17

6. Mark Teixeira – Like LL, Tex just keeps doing and doing and doing it well.  2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305

7. Miguel Cabrera – He gives me the vibe he doesn’t care, but maturity does weird things to people.  Shoot, I used to shave my head, sag my Karl Kanis and wear purple sneakers.  If Cabrera can put forth 100%, he can be a force.  2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3

8. Matt Kemp – Man, I’m loving these 5-8 picks.  Can you dig it?  I knew you could.  2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32

9. Prince Fielder – If 40 homers is the key, then Fielder’s a lock.  2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285

10. Ryan Howard – Howard = Fielder + 5 homers – .010 on average.  2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275

11. Evan Longoria – I had a premonition that Longoria could steal 20 bases in 2010.  Might’ve been indigestion.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – From the files of Coincidences That Don’t Really Mean Anything, I ranked him 12th last year too.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – I don’t buy that Wright, Reyes or Johan are done.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and say to me you’re from the future and the Mets are in the playoffs, it wouldn’t shock me.  I’d assume they traded for three starters in July.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Matt Holliday – He’s a great average, solid power and moderate steal contributor.  In fantasy, that gets you 14th.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

15. Ian Kinsler – If he stays healthy again and has a lucky year for average, he can give you a season better than Utley.  But those are two decent-sized ifs.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

16. Troy Tulowitzki – As you can see from my projections — go ahead, look, this’ll be here — I think his steals come down from last year.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – When I say bounce… You say back.  Bounce… Back…  Bounce… Back… Pounce… Back– I said pounce, got ya.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Carl Crawford – I’ll be honest, I considered dropping Crawford a little further down, but the near-15 homers gets him ranked here.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

19. Adrian Gonzalez – Mind blowing time again.  Imagine Hanley and Adrian Gonzalez on the Red Sox.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

20. Jimmy Rollins – This is the last shortstop for a while.  Why?  Cause shortstops suck.  You’re best to not look at shortstops again until Andrus.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

21. Justin Morneau – I’m kinda all right on Morneau this year.  I’m not expecting 35 homers or any steals, but around 30/100/.290 is solid.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

22. Jacoby Ellsbury – Same that goes for Crawford.  Probably won’t own Ellsbury but the boy has speed and some slight power.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

23. Justin Upton – I like J-Upside this year, but, then again, everyone does.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

24. Felix Hernandez – Love, love, love F-Her.  Think he has multiple Cy Youngs in his arm.  But I probably won’t own him either.  Before I get a ton of comments about why would I rank someone somewhere and then say I wouldn’t own them.  I can’t own everyone.  It’s just impossible.  For instance, with my first two picks, I take Braun and Reyes, I’ll need a first baseman.  If I take Hanley and A-Gon, I’ll need an outfielder.  If I take A-Rod and Sizemore, I’ll need a first baseman.  It’s just the way I assemble a team.  I’m not going to draft a starter third UNLESS — yes, Mr. Caps, that’s for emphasis — Lincecum’s still around in the third round then I won’t be able to turn that down.  But that doesn’t mean F-Her isn’t ranked here.  If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.  Also, technically I would own F-Her if he were around after I drafted, say, Braun, Reyes and Votto.  But he won’t be.  2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

25. Zack Greinke – More or less the same gist as F-Her.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

26. Roy Halladay – Halladay could easily be the top rated starter at the end of the year.  He’s not listed first because the guys above beat him in Ks and age.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

27. Joe Mauer – He’s ranked 28th because I know he’ll be gone before he gets to here.  Consider it a preemptive strike.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

28. Ryan Zimmerman – I see Zimmerman moving into the 2nd round for 2011.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

29. Kevin Youkilis – When a player gets to 30 years old and has failed to reach 30 homers, it’s pretty safe to say he’s probably not getting there.  The Greek God of 27 Homers and a Near-.300 Average.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

30. CC Sabathia – I had this wild dream the other day.  I was watching a Yankee game where CC was on the mound but instead of CC it was Prop Joe.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

31. Mark Reynolds – Flip over your your pocket-sized Chinese food take out calender, 2009 was the Year of the Mini Donkey, not 2010.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

32. Joey Votto – If you don’t know how I feel about Votto at this point, you haven’t been reading the site.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

33. Curtis Granderson – His average will come up and the homers will fly in the Boogie Down.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

34. Jayson Werth – In any different lineup or park, I’d be worried about Werth ranked this high.  Plus, he’s a 5 time Intercontinental Champion.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

35. Jose Reyes – It’s not great that he’s starting the year on the DL, but Mauer did it last year and A-Rod and Utley…  It’s a long season, if you can get Reyes at a discount, go for it.  2010 Projections:  105/11/55/.285/45

36. B.J. Upton – Don’t believe last year’s average.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

37. Brandon Phillips – Steady contributor at a weak position.  2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22

38. Brian Roberts – I’m worried at some point Roberts is going to get old.  He’ll be 32 in twenty-ten.  Might happen.  2010 Projections:  105/13/75/.285/30

39. Dustin Pedroia – Member the battles I fought last year for telling people Pedroia wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick?  Yeah, those people went into the shadows like Orson Welles in The Third Man.  2010 Projections:  110/15/70/.305/15

40. Robinson Cano – Entering the magical 27 year old season and his high average is not a trick.  (A trick is something a whore does for money.)  2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5

41. Brian McCann – I probably won’t own McCann outside of two catcher leagues, but I am more pro-McCann than most ‘perts.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

42. Victor Martinez – V-Mart at first base is kinda eh.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

43. Ichiro Suzuki – Great average, but I don’t pay for average.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

44. Jason Bay – I don’t think Metco kills a player’s value, but it’s definitely not Fenway.  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

45. Johan Santana – I don’t think Metco makes a pitcher’s value, but it’s Johan.  Falling K-rate, schmalling K-rate.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

46. Adam Lind – I understand people not being crazy for Lind because of his position, but don’t be not crazy for him because you think his power is fluky.  Yes, that was a triple negative.  Those are okay.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

47. Josh Hamilton – Hey, it’s my old whipping boy.  I like him this year.  See, it wasn’t personal.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

48. Andre Ethier – I’m basically stocking my outfield with these rankings.  Say what you want about depth, but it’s not that deep when every team needs 5 of them.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

49. Derek Jeter – Last year’s slight boost in power makes sense, but the huge increase in speed won’t carry over.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

50. Justin Verlander – Just don’t abandon ship when he starts the season poorly.  2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

51. Dan Haren – Abandon ship when the clock strikes July.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

52. Jon Lester – If it means taking a starter in the 5th round, so be it.  But I’m looking to own Lester on at least one team in 2010.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

53. Adam Wainwright – Hmm… Where are the top starters?  This seems off.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

54. Carlos Quentin – Charlie Quentin is talented, the health is the issue.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

55. Nelson Cruz – His projections say he should be above even Hamilton and Ethier but I have my trepidations that Cruz could revert to being the guy that couldn’t get out of the minors.  Unlike my other trepidations, this one feels less warranted.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

56. Adam Jones – Why is Adam Jones being drafted after players like Manny?  Point your right foot thumbkin up and point your left foot thumbkin down.  Right is Jones, left is Manny.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

57. Nick Markakis – I do think Markakis is talented, but I’d sure like to see a year of 25+ homers before drafting him as my first outfielder.  Shoot, I’d take just 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

58. Pablo Sandoval – I’m probably lower on Sandoval than most, but I don’t think 25 homers was a jumping off point but more of a ceiling.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

59. Aaron Hill – I don’t buy 2009 at all, so I’m not touching him where lots of ‘perts are.  2010 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/5

60. Kendry Morales – If he’s 26 years old, I’ll shave the ’stache.  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

61. Adam Dunn – 40, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38… Even if it’s 36 in 2010, he’s still worth the average.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

62. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed the last month of the season.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

63. Shin-Soo Choo – Throw Choo, Abreu, Victorino and Hunter into a big, over-sized hat and pick out one for your team.  They’re all relatively the same.  More speed here, less average there.  More pop here, less speed there.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

64. Bobby Abreu – How is he fast and Miguel Cabrera slow when they both have the same body type?  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

65. Shane Victorino – Now that Crapolanco shoved him down the order, I anticipate yelling at the TV screen, “Stop bunting over Victorino!”  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

66. Torii Hunter – He hasn’t stolen more than 20 bases in a season since 2004.  Cust kayin’.  cus2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

67. Carlos Lee – Could be more valuable than Lind, but where’s the excitement in that?  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

68. Ben Zobrist – With Zobrist, Jacoby Ellsbury and Zimmerman, it’s a renaissance for players whose names sound Jewish but are not.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12

69. Chone Figgins – If you have a team where your 2nd baseman and shortstop  have pop — think Uggla and Tulo — I could see Figgins.  But the dearth of power at 3rd could kill your entire team.  I opt for steals in the latter rounds at MI.  Think Everth Cabrera.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

70. Cole Hamels – He paid last year for being overworked in 2008.  This year he makes up for it.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

71. Josh Johnson – Last year, he had a sub-3 ERA until August 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

72. Cliff Lee – The Adverb is about as safe as they come, but he gets ranked here because he’s not a huge strikeout threat.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

73. Ubaldo Jimenez – Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

74. Derrek Lee – Lee’s not a 35 homer hitter like last year.  He’s a 24 to 27 homer hitter.  My apologies to Cubs fans, Derrek Lee’s family and anyone else I might have hurt with my words.  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295/3

75. Ricky Nolasco – Love the K/BB and badass name.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

76. Josh Beckett – What can be said about Red State Jeter that hasn’t already been said?  Sounds like a rhetorical, but really what?  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

77. Clayton Kershaw – I took down my Ron LeFlore door poster and put up Clayton Kershaw.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

78. Denard Span – Probably the least exciting name on the top 100 (though Uggla’s a close second).  Span’s numbers aren’t that far off from Victorino.  Call him Feign Victorino.  I might need to do a Sleeper post about Denard Dawg.  That’ll draw some eyeballs. /sarcasm  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

79. Alfonso Soriano – Free swingers don’t age well.  Speedsters with leg problems don’t run much.  Still 20/10 seems to be about his floor.  There’s value in that.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

80. Alex Rios – Rios is like buying a Chia Pet.  You’re excited when you buy it.  Seems like a fun idea.  Then you get home, never water it and it goes 8-for-75.  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

81. Chris Carpenter – As I mentioned in the top 20 starters, I’m avoiding Carp, Yovani and Peavy.  Ergo, I switched the order in this top 100.  Ergo, Yovani and Peavy didn’t even make the top 100.  Ergo, I have no idea if I’m using ergo correctly.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

82. Manny Ramirez – I’m not going to be able to get Manny this late and that’s by design.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

83. Matt Wieters – Dreamy without the Brady Anderson sideburns.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

84. Gordon Beckham – I’m typing this with my toes as I do sit-ups.  That’s how much I like Beckham.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

85. Raul Ibanez – Sorta in the same boat as Werth, but older.  I.e., if Ibanez were on a different team in a different lineup, I’d have no problem lowering him.  Hitting in Citizens Bank behind Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard and Werth is not a bad place to be.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

86. Carlos Beltran – I don’t feel comfortable with this ranking and could see skipping right over Beltran if I were drafting in early March.  I need to know more about his condition.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

87. Jason Bartlett – If you haven’t seen Charlie Bartlett, I’d avoid it.  And Jason Bartlett.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

87. Joe Nathan – UPDATE:  He’s done, put a fork in him. 2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

88. Jonathan Papelbon – There’s no way I’m getting one of these closers this late in a draft.  That’s all right, cause I don’t want them. But as more and more fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term) become better informed, closers are starting to fall lower and lower.  Continued thought in Rivera’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

89. Mariano Rivera – If this trend continues then I may have to tell people to start drafting closers because at a certain point there’s value with them.  Continued thought in Broxton’s blurb.  2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

90. Jonathan Broxton – Hmm… No, that’s about all I wanted to say about that.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

91. Michael Young – Old is as Young does.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

92. Aramis Ramirez – Kinda wanted to drop Aramis out of the top 100, but his position saves him.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

93. Dan Uggla – According to Uggla, Hanley doesn’t give it his all.  Uggla should see if he can have some of whatever it is Hanley is holding back.  2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3

94. Wandy Rodriguez – I’ve said this before so skip ahead if you’ve already heard this from me… Then again you might not know what I’m going to say until I say it… Anyhoo!  Weird how some people break out and no one believes it while others break out and they shoot up the rankings.  Wandy was solid last year; his only concern is health.  If healthy, he’s fine.  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

95. Chad Billingsley – Same boat as Hamels with less WHIP potential.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

96. Heath Bell – First closer I could see myself owning.  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

97. Lance Berkman – Unlike beef, going from prime to aged isn’t great.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

98. Billy Butler -  Upside and luscious moobs.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

99. Ian Stewart – I wanted to end the top 100 with Stewart cause I’m crushing hard.  To read more about him, go directly to my Ian Stewart fantasy.  If you see wavy lines like in a dream sequence, it’s completely normal.  2010 Projections:  85/29/100/.260/10

We’ve posted the first version of 2010 Razzball Point Shares (also available via the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings header).  For end of year 2009 Point Shares, please click here.

This first version is based solely on CHONE projections except for Saves which we added (CHONE doesn’t estimate saves).

In late February/early March, we’ll add ZiPS projections and reweight the projections based on the latest playing time expectations.  If a certain player looks high/low, you should consider the plate appearances.  For example, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone ranking Orlando Cabrera ahead of Jason Bartlett.  But Cabrera is projected at 87 more plate appearances (631 vs. 544) which helps pad his R/HR/RBI/SB totals.  The impact that playing time can have is even more dramatic when looking at starting pitcher value.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players.  Besides providing a basis for rating players, Point Shares provide quick estimates as to a player’s impact to your overall team points and compare across categories – e.g., Ichiro’s contributes 1.3 points in SB vs. the average OF and -1.3 points in HRs vs. the average OF.

Here are the basics:

• Point shares represent a player’s estimated impact on an average team’s points versus the average drafted player at his position.  So in a 12 team league, the ‘average drafted SS’ would be between the 9th and 10th valued SS (12 starting SS, 6 slotted for 2B/SS) and the average team would get 65 points (6.5 per category if 12 is top and 1 is bottom).    For example, Hanley Ramirez’s 9.69 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.69 points more to the average team than the average stats for SS in a 12-team MLB league and move the team up to 74.69 points.

• Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category.  Hanley Ramirez’s 9.69 Point Shares break out as: 2.4 Runs, 1.7 HRs, 1.0 RBI, 2.5 SB, and 2.1 AVG.

• The assumed roster makeup is C/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/5 OF/Util/9P.  The assumed number of SPs and RPs per team are 5.5 to 3.5.  The UTIL slot is manned by DH and some OF, 1B, and 3B.

• Players are ranked based on the position in which they are judged most valuable and are 20 games eligible. The order of most valuable to least valuable for positions is: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.

• Player value is primarily driven by positional comparisons (75% for hitters, 85% for pitchers) with the remained based on the average hitter/pitcher.  Batting Average, ERA, and WHIP are adjusted based on a player’s ABs/IPs (e.g., the more ABs/IPs, the greater a positive/negative impact it has for a fantasy team).

Here are some answers to some common questions:

1) Why do SPs rank higher in Point Shares than they are typically drafted? (e.g., 10 of top 20 in final 2009 PS, 2 of top 3 for 2010)

The best pitchers generally dominate 4 categories (W, K, ERA, WHIP).  While they don’t contribute in Saves, there is little opportunity cost to this since saves are concentrated in 30-40 players and there are 90+ pitching roster spots (108 for 12 team).  For hitters, it’s rare for a player to be excellent across more than 3 categories and there’s a larger opportunity cost for the categories they are not great (i.e., OFs like Ichiro and Taveras hurt HR/RBI).  Note that only 8 players in 2010 are projected to be average or better for their position in all 5 stats (Hanley, Pujols, Braun, Wright, Holliday, A-Rod, Kemp, Beltran).

Here’s another way of looking at it.  If you converted Zack Greinke’s 2009 season to an OF (W=R, HR=SO, RBI=WHIP, SB=SV, AVG=ERA), his line would have been 103 /40/108/11 /.367.   Lincecum and Felix Hernandez weren’t too far off this.  The reason why it’s usually not advisable to draft a pitcher in the 1st round is the unpredictability of who’ll be the top pitchers vs. their true value.  Here’s a more thorough explanation of a pitcher’s fantasy value.

2) Why are Point Shares based off value over an average player versus a replacement player?

There are several ‘real’ baseball metrics that value a player against ‘replacement players’ including Baseball Prospectus’ VORP and Sean Smith’s WAR.  These take position into account as the offensive value of a replacement-level 2B is going to be less than than an OF.

Point Shares uses ‘average player’ for two reasons:

a) ‘Replacement Player’ in fantasy baseball doesn’t properly estimate positional value

Fantasy baseball has two key differences that converge the replacement level for all positions to a similar offensive value:  1) The number of players selected per position varies in fantasy baseball (e.g., 1 C / 5 OF) vs. real baseball (1 C / 3 OF) and 2) The Utility position which disproportionately grabs 1B/OF given their greater hitter depth.

Pos	MLB	12-Team	Utility	% Used
C	30	12	0	40%
1B	30	18	2	67%
2B	30	18	0	60%
SS	30	18	0	60%
3B	30	18	1	63%
OF	90	60	6	73%
DH	5	0	3	60%

Note:  UTIL distribution is estimated

The below chart shows how the value of hitters converges across all positions by the time you reach  ‘Replacement Value’ or, in other words, the Free Agency wire.  If there are any inequities where a certain position has greater depth, the UTIL slot will exploit it (and that doesn’t even account for Bench).  So if one used a true ‘replacement value’ estimate by position, there would be little to no positional adjustment despite the fact that, all statistical equal, a player with C, 2B, or SS eligibility is more valuable than someone with 1B or OF eligibility.   By using ‘average’ player value, the differences in offensive value among the top-end players can be taken into account providing a better reflection of a player’s value vs. the players owned on your competitors’ teams.

Note:  Based on 2009 data with value estimated by using Tom Tango’s formula of HR + SB + (H – .27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3

b) Point Shares estimates a player’s impact on the average team vs. their impact on a replacement-level team.

Let’s say it’s draft day in a 12 team MLB league and your team looks like a keg-league softball team.  All power, no SBs.  There is no doubt that, should you keep that roster, you will finish first in HRs and last in SBs.  If you trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury, you may see no impact in HR/RBI and gain 6 points in SB.  If the other team was built like a Herzog-era Cardinals team, they might see a lift in HR/RBI with little to no impact on SBs.

These are extreme cases of course.  It’s rare that a random team is destined to be in last place for a statistic (random meaning that we’re not talking about a specific team that was on auto-pilot for draft day or is managed by that doofus in your office) .  So let’s say the odds are 11-1 a team in a 12-team league would finish last in a statistic.  It wouldn’t make sense to value Ellsbury’s SBs the way that the most SB-desperate team would value them, right?

Well, that would be precisely the way a ‘replacement-level’ methodology would look at it.

If we look at things from an average perspective, you would give equal probability that a team would finish in 1st place through 12th place for each stat.  If the best team is at 120 points and the worst at 10 points, the average team is at 65 points ((120+10)/2)  or 6.5 points per category.  For a team to have 6.5 points per category, we need to assume they are average at every position vs. has a replacement-level player.

3) What is the highest/lowest score possible?

Theoretically, the best/worst possible Point Shares score for a category would be +/- 5.5 pts in each category (moving someone from 6.5 to 12 or 1).  Any other league size, just divide the team total by 2 and subtract 0.5 (10 team = 4.5).  A simpler way of looking at it would be to consider how one would calculate the average value per team of a player with 50 SBs.  For the team that’s 1st in SBs, his value is 0.  For the 2nd team, it could be worth +1.  Take this to its logical conclusion and you get (0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11)/12.  That’s 66/12 = 5.5.

Note:  The highest points within a single category in 2010 Point Shares v1 is Jacoby Ellsbury’s 3.6 points in SB.

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