Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m participating in one NL-only and one AL-only league this  year.  I already covered the AL-only draft – this post covers the NL-only one.

This 12 team NL expert league is hosted by our friends over at KFFL - named, of course, after the Kentucky Flag Football League that won $1 in an  antitrust suit with the NFL when the judge realized that a game in which Derby jockeys play with a football coated in the Colonel’s finger-licking grease is awesome.

Participants include a couple of KFFL folks including Nick Minnix whom I competed against last year in an NL-only league, RJ White of AOL Fanhouse whom I know fr0m Fantasy Razzball the past 2 years,  the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa who seems to be in every league I participate in, and representatives from MLB.com, USA Today, and RotoWire.

This 12 team NL-only draft – and league for that matter – isn’t nearly as difficult as my AL-only league.  Why?  Glad I asked.  Two reasons:

1. The two extra teams in the NL means 16 more starting hitters, 10 SPs, 2 closers….so huge.
2. This league has 1 catcher (vs. 2), no MI/CI and only 4 OF (vs. 5).  The smaller rosters means that the FA/waiver wire includes weak starting position players and some platooned players where my AL-only has absolute bupkus.

Another difference from a standard NL-draft is this was a snake draft vs. auction draft.  I would’ve preferred an auction but at least the snake draft format ensures I’ll get two top 20 players (I usually get outbid in auction leagues on these guys).

For full draft results, click here.

I drew the 5th pick in the draft and went in the draft with a preranked top 5 of Pujols, Hanley, Braun, Utley, and Lincecum.  I was really hoping one of those top 4 would make it my way as I NEVER end up with these guys but no dice.  I liked both Fielder and Howard but felt that the lack of a CI would mean I could get a solid 1B later in the draft (see LaRoche in the 7th round).

Offense:
Given I only invested 3 of my first 6 picks on offense and only one of my first 4 picks has even 25+ HR power (Werth), you would think my offense would be below average.  But I think it’s deceptively strong.  The league seemed to overvalue AVG and I was able to get productive hitters throughout the draft like Dan Uggla (Round 5), Adam LaRoche (7), Garrett Jones (8), Cody Ross (10), and Polanco (11 – who’ll be my 3B once he gets eligibility).  With Reyes (a potential steal at #20), Werth, and a stashed-away Eric Young Jr., my SBs have above-average potential.  So the offense has its risks – some of which have already exploded in my face (friggin’ Dukes) – but I think it has 40-45 points (average is 32).

Pitching:
My team is built to be above-average in all 5 pitching categories.  Love Lincecum and thought I got fantastic value in landing Hamels with the 44th pick in an NL-draft.  After picking those two, I snagged 2 closers (Marmol and Dotel) that, assuming health and relative success, should be plenty since the average team only has 1 closer.  With a strong ERA/WHIP base, I then focused on SP depth to help with Wins and Ks.  I think Homer Bailey and Charlie Morton have nice K upside while Kyle Lohse and hodgepadre Clayton Richard can hopefully contribute some Wins and Ks with close to league-average ERA/WHIP.  I was also psyched to pick up Kris Medlen in the 17th round as his K rate is fantastic as a reliever (more than 1 an inning) and will be a solid starter if moved out of the ‘pen.  My goal is to get at least 45 points out of my staff and possible 50+ (averaging 3rd across all 5 categories).

Overall:
I like my team’s chances.  You can’t win a league on draft day but you can lose one.  And I definitely didn’t do that…

We already made two trades in this league, so keep that in mind.  You want me to tell you the trades up front?  You and those dimples!  Okay,  I’ll tell you.  We traded… Here it comes… Wait for it… Wait, where did it go?  Oh, here it is.  We traded Pena for The Dread Pirate.  And since you liked that one so much, we sent Rafael Soriano packing for Matt Garza.  You say tomato, I say we got Matt Garza for some saves.  The other trade will probably be a push, but The Dread Pirate worked better on our team, at least according to Advanced Quantum Fantasy Baseball Theory.  Anyway, here’s our auction draft fantasy baseball team:

14 teams, H2H, 6×6 (OPS and Holds) C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL

Jonathan Broxton – $17 — All 12 guys that went before our first pick went for much more than we were willing to spend.  Almost all of them going for more than $30.  We, Rudy and I — he drafted with me — had the most money at almost all times in the draft.  So in the grand scheme of things, we knew pretty early that we could have just about anyone we really wanted under $30.  I think I might’ve nominated Broxton, because I wanted someone to spend $20+ for him.  Yeah, that didn’t work.  We knew that other closers would go for more than Broxton. (They did; Rivera $19, Papelbon for $20, K-Rod went for just under at $16.)  Was I in love with this pick?  It was okay.  I wouldn’t have went an extra dollar if someone outbid me.  Same with Soriano, Marmol and Soria.

Jonathan Sanchez – $7, Carlos Zambrano – $5, Roy Oswalt – $9, A.J. Burnett – $5, Cole Hamels – $18 — This was basically the story of our draft.  Someone would nominate Sabathia the bidding would go over $30, we’d back out.  Someone would nominate Haren, bidding would go to $30, we’d drop out.  Carpenter — $29, F-Her — $35, Jon Lester — $25, etc.  Someone would nominate a pitcher who was still very valuable, but maybe not as exciting and we’d get him.  Our staff is a bit weaker than I’d want in a roto league, but this is H2H, so we’ll see.  For what it’s Wuertz, we beat a team with Kershaw, Lincecum and Haren in our first week matchup.

Nick Markakis – $20, Jason Bay – $20, Brian McCann – $16, Alfonso Soriano – $8, Vladimir Guerrero – $8, Dan Uggla – $12 — Because of the insane amounts of money spent on the top guys, no one had any money for the unsexy guys.  Know what’s real unsexy?  Losing.  You know what else is unsexy? Alfonso Soriano.  Dem’s the breaks as they say in places that say that.

Holds – We let others pay for Holds guys.  (Thornton – $7, Sergio Romo – $3, Luke Gregerson – $5, etc)  We basically punted Holds so we would have more money to build the rest of our team.  It’s not like there won’t be a dozen Holds guys on waivers in a 14 team league.

Overall Thoughts – We were weak in Average and Steals.  The Pena for The Dread Pirate trade should help us there.  There will be guys on waivers that we can fill in week to week depending on the matchup.  We’re strong in RBIs, Home Runs and OPS.  On our pitching staff, I’m not too concerned about our Ks or Saves.  Holds we’ll figure out off of waivers.  Wins will figure itself out and our ERA and WHIP could be issues.  We might have to beat people into submission with quantity of starters over quality.

Like many of you, I cut my fantasy baseball teeth on snake-drafting 10-12 team mixed leagues.*  But I’ve found that, to paraphrase Spinal Tap, the looser the league’s Free Agent waistband, the deeper the quicksand I get into.  I’d lose a closer to injury only to find that some joker on the West Coast picked up the replacement while I was sleeping.  I’d stubbornly stick with a lemon of a player through end of May while other teams spackled their roster holes with the breakout stars of the year (e.g, Quentin and Ludwick in 2008, Zobrist in 2009)

*Actually, Grey and I started duking it out in ESPN auto-drafting leagues and waking up the next morning to find 4 shortstops or 3 catchers on our squads.

Anyway, I’ve found myself venturing more into AL/NL-only leagues because of the frustrations mentioned above and because it is required curriculum to get a MFB (Masters in Fantasy Baseball) degree.  Last year, my first try at NL-only went splendidly as I took home the FantasyPros911 NL-only Blogger League pennant aided by a draft where I didn’t end up paying more than $21 for any player.  For every disappointment like Russ Martin ($21), I had a crazy bargain like Ryan Franklin ($4) or Mark Reynolds ($14).

The victory earned me entry into FP911′s ‘Expert’ League, which is AL-only and has more seasoned competitors like Tout War vets (Jason Collette of DockoftheRays.com and FanBall.com’s OwnersEdge; Perry Van Hook of FantasyBaseball.com) and writers from well-known sites like FoxSports (John Halpin), Baseball Prospectus (Marc Normandin), and Hardball Times (Rob McQuown).

Below is my team with my post-draft thoughts.  Here’s a draft review on FP911.  Here’s the league page.

A 12-team AL-only league with 2 C + CI/MI/5 OF is about as masochistic as you can get in fantasy baseball.  The two less teams in the AL (14) vs. NL (16) plays a big role.  In a number of cases, just getting a crappy starter like Jack Wilson is huge because the alternative is some schmohawk with 150 ABs all year.  Getting 40 Runs / 40 RBIs is awful unless the alternative is 10 and 10.  And forget about the free agent wire – it’s a barren wasteland.  Drafting prospects is a great idea – so great that everyone does it.  So the only impact players that will be found in free agency are guys coming from the NL in trades or deep sleepers.

This lack of depth affects draft strategy as you can’t afford to be too generous or stingy with your early-round bidding.  The player pool dries up quick and you don’t want to be left with a bunch of $1 bench-warmers or a team full of 3rd-tier players with money to spare.

My biggest bet was on Joe Mauer whom I had as the most valuable player in AL 12-Team Point Shares and got for a relative bargain at $33 (Crawford went for $35, Youk went for $31).  I overbid my Point Share value of Granderson ($26 vs. $20) in the belief that CHONE/ZiPS underestimated the impact of Yankee Stadium for lefty pull hitters.  The rest of the offense is a spotty mix of guys that skew towards HR/RBI vs. SB/AVG.  Hoping my Valbuena/Hardy middle infield tandem turns into a nice value play.   The only above-average guy in the lot is Kurt Suzuki who, combined with Mauer, will hopefully give me a monster advantage at the catcher position vs. other teams and mitigate some losses I’ll have at other spots like 1B.

I liked Sabathia at $26 and a pre-suspension/pre-injury Cliff Lee at $22 to anchor the staff.  Buerhle ($9) and Pettitte ($6) are safe types that hopefully will net some Wins without hurting my ratios too much and $7 on Bedard felt cheap enough to gamble he can throw a quality half-season.

Closers were going at high prices (e.g., Papelbon at $25, Jenks at $17) and I got the cheapest RP option available in a $13 Kerry Wood.  He came cheap for a reason and, lucky for me, that I spent $4 for his handcuff (Chris Perez).  I think Mijares ($1) will get a couple of saves this year and took fliers on Ziegler/Devine and Putz in case Bailey or Jenks get hurt or falter.

End result:  I ran my projections against everyone’s drafted team (swapping the occasional bench guy for a ‘starter’ like one team that has Beckham on the bench as he awaits MI eligiblity) and my team did as well as I could’ve hoped.  I came in at 77 points which would net me 2nd place.  My team proved strong in R/HR/RBI (32 out of 36 points) and absolutely dreadful in AVG and SB (1 point in each).  My pitching ratios are great (23 out of 24 points) with average performance at W/SV/K.  Luckily, if there’s one thing available in free agency, it’s marginal SPs that can help me boost Wins and Ks.  Desmond Jennings would be a lifesaver for SBs if called up but it’ll likely take an OF injury in Tampa for that to happen.  Most likely, I’ll trade some power for speed at some point, tapping into my treasure trove of DHs (the league mistakenly was set up with DH vs. UTIL – so a player has to be DH-eligible to be placed there.  Crazy, right?  Makes my bench pick of Jim Thome – done on autodraft while I went to see Ray Davies play @ SXSW – look brilliant.)

Next post, I’ll cover my NL team in a league run by KFFL.com…

It wasn’t my intention, but with this draft I was able to prove, in a pinch, I can draft a pretty good fantasy baseball team for 2006.  Maybe they can show this draft on ESPN Classic.  If I can somehow bait my leaguemates into my DeLorean, I could win this league.  Rudy didn’t draft with me, but, after the draft, he said, “I really like this team.”  Knowing Rudy’s a fantasy baseball cougar, I know it wasn’t a usual team for me to draft.  Why did I draft it then?  Sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don’t, as the old nugget goes.  Or maybe that’s nougat.  Nevertheless, it’s less than 20 minutes after drafting this team and maybe I’ll cozy up to it over time.  Maybe I’m just sore because I missed out on Kelly Johnson, Ian Stewart and Chase Headley.  Maybe, just maybe, I’ll be glad I missed out on those schmohawks when my Mr. Winkle calendar flips to July.  Maybe I’m writing this opening like I’m Morgan Freeman’s voiceover. (Go ahead reread the last three sentences.  Sounds like Morgan Freeman’s in your head now, right?  You’ll be hearing that voice for the next 72 hours.  Say hello to Daniel Johnston for me, you done gone crazy.)  Anyway, here’s my 2010 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different rounds:

14 teams, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

Round 1 – Matt Kemp – This was my first “let’s mix it up” of many.  Kemp’s in the same tier as other guys (Drunky Cabrera), so it’s not a huge deal I took him.  Frankly, I expect big things from Kemp and don’t own him anywhere else, so I wanted to see what it was Rihanna kept talking about.

Round 3 – Felix Hernandez – Another zig vs. the zags.  I see your quesadilla and I raise you a pupusa.  Hernandez will be my preseason AL Cy Young pick when I get around to doing them.  I love me some F-Her.  Though, I don’t usually go for a starter this early.  My thought process was, I’m going to take one starter in the first 7 picks anyway, so what the hey, I’ll take this one.  As Simon Cowell would say, I’m a funny little thing.

Round 4 – Jose Reyes – Sorry, at 50 overall, I’m taking Reyes.  When September rolls around and he has 45 steals, people won’t even remember the cojones it took to draft him in March.  See 2009 A-Rod, Utley and Mauer for further proof.  In the Funston write-up of this draft, The Hardball Times guy called this pick out as the reach of the draft.  Guess you can’t make all the people happy all the time, but if I can make this guy unhappy most of the time, I might do okay.

Round 7 – Josh Hamilton – At 91 overall?  Gotta do it.  At this point is when I started to realize I might need six DL spots.  Hopefully, the only crack we hear about from Hamilton is the sound of his bat.

Round 10 – Vladimir Guerrero – Hey, 2006, what’s going on?  Say hello to your mother for me.

Round 13 – A.J. Burnett – At 175 overall, Burnett’s a guy that can win 15 and strikeout 200; yeah, I’ll take that.  Wanna know some other gems from this round?  Elijah Dukes, Nick Swisher, Juan Pierre, Leo Nunez, Ben Sheets and Lastings Milledge… Luckily, Dukes and Milledge didn’t end up on the same team.  That clubhouse would’ve been a mess.

Round 14 – Bobby Jenks – Usually I don’t comment on the closers I take, because closers are closers are closers — SAGNOF! — but I wanted to say Jenks isn’t a great pick here.  I’ll admit that.  My rationale is I’ll have too many saves and be able to trade some away.  As mentioned many times before, speed-only guys are like cars.  Drive ‘em off the lot, they lose all value.  Closers actually gain value.  Further proof of this, I just traded Rafael Soriano for Matt Garza in a different league.

Round 17 – Mark DeRosa – And even with the Jenks pick, this is my least favorite pick.  Drafted around him were Ordonez, Kuroda, Willingham… So it wasn’t all peaches and cream out there, but Kelly Johnson was taken a few picks later by Pianowski of Y! and, well, that hurt.  Or Owski, if you’re Polish.  I thought I could grab DeRosa and Johnson would’ve been around for another round.  I should’ve grabbed Johnson since no one on the right side of loco is drafting DeRosa.  Anyway, I took Kouz later to spell DeRosa at 3rd then I can fill in UTIL with a hot waiver grab.

Rounds 18 and 21 – Scott Sizemore and Ian Desmond – Trying to shake some of the stank off myself from the DeRosa pick, I went upside².  At MI this late, you can dream.  And you should.

Round 24/25 – Madison Bumgarner/Kris Medlen – They’re already off my team.  No room for guys with girl’s names, sorry.

The other drafternoon I took part in my Fantasy Razzball draft where the object is to field the worst team possible.  This team isn’t just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  My co-conspirators in this were:

Chet G., Fantasy Football
Andy B., Yahoo! Roto Arcade
Tim W., Buccofans.com
T Man, Middle Aged Sports Guys
Jonathan H., The Hardball Times
Paul R., My Sports Rumors
Collin, FantasyPros911
Ryan D., Oh What, Another Baseball Blog
Andrew C., Yanks Go Yard

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Round 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  His K rate has been going up.  You want more?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  Could Joyce DeWitt’s son steal time?  I suppose, but Belliard’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

Round 2 – It was between Lousy Castillo and Drew Stubbs, who may not even break camp with the Reds he’s so godawful.  Stubbs’s projected 267 strikeouts this year had me throw caution into the wind and go with the upside pick.  Yes, in this league, your 2nd pick may not break camp with the club. It’s not easy being bad at your chosen vocation.  Ask any non-Greinke Royals pitcher.

Round 3 – Tommy Manzella, while renown for his lasagna, is not, how do I put this, good at baseball.  If there were a category on Jeopardy! titled, “Players You’d Confuse With Adam Everett,” Manzella would be the question for every answer.  Manzella’s projections:  450+ ABs, .240 average and 5 homers.  Now that’s Italian!

Round 4 – Actually, I really like Scott Podsednik this year in fantasy… Sorry, I meant to say, I really like Scott Podsednik’s wife.  Crucial detail.

Round 5 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Bannister.

Round 6 – Went with the Marquis de Shat here because we have a max innings limit and I really wanted to get a few pitchers that could actually stay in the rotation all year.  Figuring quality non-quality over quantity non-quality, if that makes sense.

Round 7 – A two home run hitter calling Petco home? Was surprised to see Sparky Anklebiter make it all the way to the 7th round.  Middle infield is a deep position in this, but I couldn’t turn down this kind of value.

Round 8 – Brett Gardner is the first pick that I could see definitely owning in regular leagues.  One of the few picks on this team with downside.  If he can avoid the top of the order, he should be fine.

Round 9 – Considering Michael Bourn went in the first round, Nyjer Morgan‘s a steal here.  Speaking of which, steals aren’t counted in this league, if anyone was not familiar with the points structure.  BTW, the nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

Round 10 – Tommy Hunter.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

Round 11 – Martin Prado isn’t a great pick at 2nd base… But he’s not playing there for me.  He is a solid guy for the Not Corner.

Round 12 – I expect Porcello’s ERA to mushroom. (<–almost pun!)

Round 13 – Scott Olsen — You know those Army commercials you see that promise college and all that?  I imagine in the next 15 years there will be commercials for kids who throw lefty.  Can’t afford college and you throw lefty?  Play in the Majors!

Round 14 – Daniel Murphy locked up my corner infidel spot.  Not bad value for a guy who received fielding tips from Keith Hernandez and hitting tips from Ron Darling.

Round 15 – Someone took Yorvit Torrealba in Round 14 and that reminded me I better grab his blahtoon mate, Nick Hundley.

Round 16 – In regular leagues, I wouldn’t want to fill my utility spot so early, but I knew I wanted a top tier catcher, so I grabbed Gregg Zaun, then immediately began thinking about how he really shouldn’t be playing in the major leagues anymore.  Someone hire him to coach, please.

Rounds 17/18 – Dave Bush and Brett Myers because Home Runs Allowed is a category.  Hopefully, Myers won’t disrupt my harmonious clubhouse.

Round 19 – Ladies and gentlemen, super futility man – Eugenio Velez.

Rounds 20/21/22 – Ronny Cedeno, Chris Getz and Jeff Keppinger.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.

Round 23 – Billy Buckner?  *shrugs*  I don’t know, but he’s supposed to be terrifically awful.

Round 24 – Garrett Mock – Mock indeed.

Round 25 – Grabbed Russell Martin to stash on my DL, though I’m sure at least one of my pitchers will end up on the Disgraceful List by May.

Round 26 – Every time you hear Willie Harris‘s name don’t you think of Michael Dukakis?  Yeah, maybe it’s me.

Round 27 – Jake Westbrook is actually the Indians number one pitcher.  Chief Wahoo should change his name to Chief WTF?