Fantasy Baseball Advice

Usually on Friday I go over one player who can be looked at keeping in keeper leagues, but the other day in the comments I was asked for some general fantasy baseball keeper league strategy.  A request and dedication, if you will.  For illustration purposes, let’s look at last year’s Chase Utley keeper post.  Go ahead, read it.  This’ll be here when you return.  Welcome back!  Okay, in that post I told you to keep Marmol and Utley.  At the time, Utley was about to have hip surgery and Marmol wasn’t the closer.  In my oversized brain, I figured, hip surgery be damned, Utley would still be a top hitter at a weak position. Which brings me to my first fantasy baseball keeper point:

1. Top hitters at weak positions rule in keepers.

Utley, Mauer, Hanley, et al. are top keepers.  I’m not a fan of drafting Mauer very early on in redrafts.  But in a keeper league, I’m assuming you have him for a lot cheaper than he’ll go in redrafts, especially when considering he went late in 2009 drafts because of back issues.

2. Value is a trump card.

In the above Utley/Marmol example, I knew Marmol would be very cheap on your team because he was nothing but a middle man in 2008.  Though he had the stuff to be the closer in 2009 and Kevin Gregg blocking him — ha!  Are you keeping Marmol over Miguel Cabrera?  Not unless Nurse Ratched just gave you a lobotomy.  Would I have told you last year to keep a 20th round Marmol over, say, a 8th round Vernon Wells?  Yes, I would’ve.  Another example of value as trump card, Derrek Lee in the 6th round or Kendry Morales in the 20th round?  Kendry Morales wins.

3. Try to figure out who your leaguemates are keeping.

Or the inverse of that, who will be available on draft day.  This is sometimes easier said than done, but you should be able to gauge more or less the guys that will be kept.  For instance, if there’s going to be no top 3rd basemen in the draft, it makes Kevin Youkilis in the 3rd round a lot more appealing.

4. When in doubt, keep a hitter.

I’m not opposed to keeping a pitcher or two, but if I could have my druthers — those are MY druthers! — I’d keep hitters.  Same that holds true for redraft leagues holds true for keepers.  Pitchers are unpredictable from year to year.

5. Take a gamble on upside.

Some players have top 50 upside.  Think The Dread Pirate.  Am I gambling on upside over a proven commodity?  No, I’m not.  But if you keep, say, 5 keepers, take 4 proven guys and gamble on one guy to have some upside.

6. Don’t be cute; go for the win this year vs. the future win.

This point couches point number five.  Don’t overload on future talent.  I’m sure Strasburg will be dynamite.  He may even be dy-no-mite.  That doesn’t mean you’re playing 2011 before 2010 even starts, future boy.

We continue our 2010 fantasy baseball keeper posts with B.J. Upton.  At first, I was going to write about Justin Upton, but I figured he was such a no-brainer that I didn’t need to dedicate a keeper post to him.  Of course he’s a keeper.  B.J.’s much more interesting.  In his short major league career, he’s shown all the tools that once had the scouts drooling over him.  B.J., tools, drooling, you do the math.  Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown them all the tools at the same time.  A B.J. hasn’t had this many ups and downs since Chloe Sevigny in The Brown Bunny.  The closest B.J., um, came was at the age of 22 in 2007 when he hit 24 homers and stole 22 bases while batting .300 in 474 at-bats.  That season led everyone to the assumption Upton was a sure 30/30 threat.  Unlimited potential.  He was like Hal Ashby before the 80′s.  Then Upton’s age 23 season came and his power disappeared.  Hrmph.  Reports came out that he was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder.  It zapped his power.  We excused him.  The 44 steals made the medicine go down.  In 2009, it was more of the same and this time the average bottomed out, too.  So where’s the power?  Is it ever returning?  What’s up with the average?  Is he steals and nothing else?  To the point, is B.J. Upton a solid fantasy baseball keeper for 2010?

Let’s tackle average first.  In 2009, his line drive rate fell (15.4% from 18.9% in 2008) and his walks plummeted (9.2% from 15.4% in 2008).  Meantime, his fly ball rate went through the roof (for him) from 30.6% in 2008 to 40.3% in 2009.  His K-rate also went up.  This leads me to think he was swinging at balls he didn’t used to swing at and trying to do too much with them.  This isn’t much of a limb, the numbers bear this out with him swinging at nearly 5% more pitches outside the strike zone.  This might sound Tim McCarverish, but he needs to relax, wait for his pitch and his average should turn around.  I’d bet on a .270 average from him in 2010.  As for the evaporated power, it’s a bit trickier.  His home run per fly ball ratio in 2007 was 19.8%.  That seems to be an outlier.  He’s probably closer to a 10-12% home run to fly ball hitter.  That still puts him in the 15 homer range.  The steals are there, obviously.  So if a 15/40 hitter with a .270 average is a keeper for your team, I’d keep B.J. Upton.

In the 2009 preseason, I looked at Mark Reynolds and saw a bargain.  He stole bases and hit homers.  I figured the rest would sort itself out.  It did.  In a big way.  On his way to celebrating the bi-whifftennial, Reynolds hit a career high in homers, steals, RBIs, Runs… Knocked down 7 consecutive bulls eyes that make the old Western piano man play, perfectly stopped his Tivo remote so it landed right after the intro to The Real World/Road Rules Challenge: The Ruins, but didn’t miss one moment of Tonya acting bat-shit crazy and he aptly called someone on The Biggest Loser a chucklefanny.  (A chucklefanny is anyone whose butt jiggles when they giggle.)  Yeah, Mark Reynolds is money.  Sorry, I’m so 2008.  I mean, #markreynoldsismoney.  So what’s left for Mini Donkey in 2010 fantasy baseball?  Is he a fantasy baseball keeper?

Frankly, I’m worried.  But we had so many good times!  I’m not prepared to throw him in the schmohawk category just yet.  I won’t do that until I start to see how early he gets drafted.  My guess is he’ll go way too early.  But this is a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper post, and that shizz means you have Reynolds already for mad cheap — that’s Jim Cramer’s brother’s show.  Now scream like you’re a lobster going into boiling water.  Just remember some figures.  Someone who strikes out 200 times, is not a good bet to repeat a .260 average.  Reynolds isn’t plain old fast.  He gets good reads and is “sneaky fast,” courtesy of Mark Grace.  “Sneaky fast” is a recipe for a guy that may only steal 12-15 bases next year.  So don’t rely on Reynolds getting 24 again.  Finally, 44 homers seems like the apex on Mt. Mini Donkey.  Does he hit monster shots?  Beef pho sho!  So, even if he has no tolerance for chucklefannies, he’s definitely a fantasy baseball keeper, assuming you have Reynolds for cheap.  Just keep your expectations in check.

As legend goes, on May 30th, 1982, Orioles utility infielder, Lenn Sakata was so inspired by the hit film of the day, Conan the Barbarian, that he dressed in animal skin Jockey underwear “borrowed” from Jim Palmer and carried a cardboard sword into the locker room.  Now whether Cal Ripken (then Cal Ripken Jr.) knew the power in that cardboard sword or if he was just patronizing Sakata no one knows, but Ripken knelt on the floor in front of Sakata and asked him to touch his shoulder with the cardboard sword.  With a grand gesture, that was probably unnecessary, Sakata obliged.  As we all know, May 30th, 1982 began The Streak.  On the record, Ripken thanked his family and teammates for their support for making The Streak possible.  Off the record, of course, Ripken knew it was Lenn Sakata that forever changed history.  This year, Lenn Sakata returned to the Orioles locker room, dressed in only faux leather boots and a loincloth.  Most of the Orioles thought Sakata was a homeless person that snuck past security… Some thought he was the Asian guy from The Hangover… But Matt Wieters knew different.  Before security could escort Sakata out, Wieters knelt in front of him and asked Lenn to touch him with the cardboard sword.  The same cardboard sword that once touched Ripken’s shoulder.  (It also touched a young Jeffrey Hammonds’s shoulder.  Nevertheless…)  For the superstitious, this is enough for Matt Wieters to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but for the non-believers, let’s look at some other reasons.

In nearly 700 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Wieters had a line of .343/.438/.576.  At 6 feet 5 inches, he had some saying he was “Mauer with power.”  Turns out Mauer had power, which worked out for those who love to rhyme, and Wieters had rookie hiccups.  It wasn’t until the tail end of the year when Wieters started to show some of his promise, hitting .362/.425/.511 in September.  In 2010, Wieters could get to a line of 70/17/85/.300.  If those numbers look familiar, you might be Pablo Sandoval.  Check your midsection for confirmation.  That was near my 2009 projections for Sandoval; Wieters isn’t far off.  Those numbers are also a baseline.  There’s definite upside.  So there may just be magic in that cardboard sword of Lenn Sakata.  Heaven knows there’s magic in his loincloth.

Third base is not getting deeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.  It’s just not.  If Jacques Cousteau played fantasy baseball and was still alive, he wouldn’t even need a snorkel to see the bottom of the 3rd base basin.  Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.  There’s guys at the top (Longoria, Wright, Sandoval, Zimmerman, Youuuuuuk, Reynolds, A-Rod and Young).  There’s plenty of schmohawks at the bottom (Cantu, Blake, Lowell).  But there’s not a whole lot of guys at the bottom that could move to the top.  You’re gonna have to deal with it.  After Michael Young, there will be a drop off.  Some of the upside picks at 3rd will be Ian Stewart, Casey McGehee and Gordon Beckham.  Each of those guys will probably get a fantasy baseball keeper or sleeper post dedicated to them.  Today, it’s 2010 fantasy baseball keeper (and sleeper) time as we look at Gordon Shumway Beckham.

In 378 at-bats last year, Gordon Beckham came away with the line of 58/14/63/.270/7.  The Royal We is not going to sit and say add 50 games worth of stats to his numbers and look at how beautiful they are, but it’s fair to say he will get more Runs.  Ozzie hit him 2nd for 218 at-bats.  There’s no reason why that should stop.  So let’s give him 85 Runs.  Since we can’t have our ice cream and cake and cake and eat it too, I’m not going to give him any more RBIs.  If he’s batting 2nd, he’s not also batting 8th. (It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.)  Beckham stole more bases when he hit 2nd than anywhere else in the order.  (Not many, but still it is true.)  So let’s say he gets 14 steals.  He did steal 18 bases in his last year of college, so it’s not a huge termite-infested limb we’re traipsing out onto.  He hit more homers from the two hole.  Not sure what lineup protection he actually got from the middle of the White Sox order, but let’s assume he did.  So let’s give him 18 homers.  Seems pretty conservative.  I like that.  Less you expect, less you’re disappointed.  He strikes out a decent amount and he’s prone to slumps.   Average can come down from .270.  Doesn’t have to, but can.  Let’s assume it does.  Again, less expectations.  Okay, so we have a 2010 line of 85/18/63/.260/14.  That’s a top 10 3rd baseman with upside for a bit more.  I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.