Price has tremendous stuff that he showed in college, the minors and briefly in the majors in 2008.  Intro Paragraph mentioned how Price’s walks went up and Ks went down in 2009.  Mr. Paragraph, if that’s his real name, wasn’t telling you the whole story.  Price’s K’s went down in the 2nd half of the season, but his walks went way down, as well.  Captain Stubing once described this as “getting your sea legs.”  Price was learning how to pitch in the major leagues last year.  2010 should be the year he continues his progress.  Walks should stay down and strikeouts should start to come around again.  The real breakout might not come until 2011.  Nevertheless, the breakout will come.  In 2010, we should expect a solid third fantasy starter-type season.  Ups and downs, culminating in a line of 12-9/3.75/1.30/155.  The reason why I’d go for him over someone like, say, Oswalt is the upside.  The reason I’d go for Oswalt over Price is the downside.  There’s more risk with Price.  You need to evaluate your pitching staff in-draft to see if you can handle risk.  The only reason why I’m not head over flippin’ heels for Price while caps-locking my superlatives is because of his division.  I’d prefer a late pitcher in the NL, but risk and division aside, I like Price and he is a solid sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

Victor Martinez – You want him at catcher, but the added eligibility is nice if you lose a 1st baseman to an injury and need to slot in V-Mart.  Krishna knows it’s easier to find a random schmohawk catcher off waivers than a 1st baseman.

Jorge Cantu – Without the 3rd base eligibility, he wouldn’t even be drafted in most leagues.  With the eligibility, you still want to avoid him.  For those keeping score, that’s damned if you do, and damned if you do.

Chris Davis – When you’re looking to draft a player that is capable of striking out 300 times, you probably want them at a corner infidel spot, so the additional 3rd base eligibility doesn’t add much.  If you don’t play with corner infielders, you want Davis at 3rd, but with only 11 games there you may be S.O.L. in some leagues. (Damn you, ESPN.)

Ryan Garko – From the files of “Yeah, No Kidding,” he’s a whole lot more appealing as a 5th outfielder than a 1st baseman.  And even in the outfield, it’s really only in deep leagues.

Bobby Crosby – Psyche!  He has no added value anywhere, but seeing him on the position eligibility list made me realize something.  He played 54 games at 1st base and 42 at 3rd base.  Billy Beane might be like the Orson Wells of baseball GMs.  The Moneyball years is to Citizen Kane as Bobby Crosby playing 1st and 3rd base is to Orson Welles shilling for cheap wine.

Clint Barmes – 2nd base eligibility is nice, but, as the Yankee Doodles used to say, shortstop eligibility is macaroni.

Alberto Callaspo – With MI and CI eligibility, he has the coveted superfecta of eligibility.  Though, I wouldn’t say Callaspo is necessarily coveted.  Funny how that worked.

Jose Lopez – You want him at 2nd base or MI.

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist’s risk of not repeating is definitely counterbalanced by the nice eligibility.  He played 91 games at 2nd base, 70 games at outfield and 13 games at shortstop.  Hmm… No wonder he hit 27 homers and stole 17 bases, he played in 174 games.

Emilio Bonifacio – I wouldn’t own him outside of NL-Only leagues, but he does have the Pick 3 of eligibility.

Mark DeRosa – Slot him in at the corner infielder spot, grow bored and put him in your fifth outfielder spot.  Lose interest and drop him.  You know what I’m saying, you’ve been there before.

Casey McGehee – You know you’re more likely to take a chance on him at 2nd base or MI than 3rd base.  Yes, I know you better than you know yourself.

Mark Reynolds – You think you’ll be fine with him as your 1st baseman, but, by the end of 2010, you’re going to want him as your 3rd baseman.

Jhonny Peralta – He gained 3rd base eligibility this year to go along with shortstop…. yay!  He hit 11 homers in 582 at-bats.  Moving on…

Ian Stewart – I’m excited about Ian Stewart for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Looks like Mark Reynolds going into 2009.  Oh, and he’s eligible at 2nd base.

Juan Uribe – Won’t find him on a Grey Albright team out of a draft, but in single league, uh, leagues he has solid eligibility.

Michael Cuddyer – Corner infield and outfield eligibility is nice, but I’ll bet you $5 he’s the first guy you want to drop.

Adam Dunn – Probably will end up in your outfield, but the flexibility of putting Dunn in at corner is nice.  And that is the only time a sentence will ever contain flexibility and Dunn.

Nick Swisher – See Adam Dunn or 1/12th of an inch above.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones is in the same boat as Casey McGehee.  The added eligibility makes the gamble easier to take.

Chase Headley – Maybe it’s the three whiskey sours talking, but I’m sorta excited about Headley at third base this year.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Shortstop eligibility is a nice added bonus, so we’ll excuse him for fielding his position in the shape of a swastika.

CATCHERS

Chris Coste C (55), 1B (16)
Ramon Hernandez C (55), 1B (30)
Victor Martinez C (85), 1B (70)

1ST BASEMEN

Rich Aurilia 1B (22), 3B (13)
Willie Aybar 1B (31), 2B (28), 3B (18)
Jorge Cantu 1B (111), 3B (45)
Bobby Crosby 1B (54), 3B (42)
Chris Davis 1B (100), 3B (11)
Ryan Garko 1B (84), OF (12)
Ross Gload 1B (41), OF (10)
Mark Kotsay 1B (41), OF (20)
Daniel Murphy 1B (101), OF (27)
Fernando Tatis 1B (41), OF (28), 3B (27)
Ty Wigginton 1B (40), 3B (39)
Kevin Youkilis 1B (78), 3B (63)

2ND BASEMEN

Jeff Baker 2B (52), 3B (20)
Clint Barmes 2B (139), SS (16)
Ronnie Belliard 2B (60), 1B (15), 3B (12)
Andres Blanco 2B (40), SS (15)
Eric Bruntlett 2B (13), OF (10)
Alberto Callaspo 2B (146), 3B (14)
Jamey Carroll 2B (56), 3B (23)
Craig Counsell 2B (50), 3B (43), SS (27)
Mike Fontenot 2B (70), 3B (50)
Alberto Gonzalez 2B (55), SS (41)
Edgar Gonzalez 2B (15), OF (14)
Anderson Hernandez 2B (74), SS (38)
Omar Infante 2B (30), OF (16), 3B (10), SS (10)
Maicer Izturis 2B (68), SS (28)
Brent Lillibridge 2B (23), OF (12)
Jose Lopez 2B (141), 1B (16)
Jayson Nix 2B (52), SS (15), 3B (12)
Augie Ojeda 2B (35), SS (34), 3B (28)
Martin Prado 2B (63), 3B (41), 1B (28)
Nick Punto 2B (63), SS (58)
Omar Quintanilla 2B (25), SS (13), 3B (10)
Ryan Roberts 2B (57), 3B (19), OF (16)
Rusty Ryal 2B (13), 1B (10)
Skip Schumaker 2B (133), OF (54)
Matt Tolbert 2B (36), 3B (27ha)
Luis Valbuena 2B (75), SS (28)
Delwyn Young 2B (53), OF (30)
Ben Zobrist 2B (91), OF (70), SS (13)

SHORTSTOPS

Asdrubal Cabrera SS (100), 2B (28)
Juan Castro SS (28), 2B (20)
Ronnie Cedeno SS (82), 2B (13)
Alex Cora SS (56), 2B (19)
Khalil Greene SS (30), 3B (16)
Tyler Greene SS (30), 3B (11)
Brendan Harris SS (56), 3B (44), 2B (11)
Julio Lugo SS (56), 2B (30)
John McDonald SS (31), 3B (10)
Ramiro Pena SS (34), 3B (27)
Luis Rodriguez SS (34), 2B (30)
Brendan Ryan SS (105), 2B (19)
Ramon Santiago SS (69), 2B (29)
Ramon Vazquez SS (28), 2B (22), 3B (14)
Omar Vizquel SS (27), 3B (20), 2B (16)

3RD BASEMEN

Garrett Atkins 3B (78), 1B (28)
Geoff Blum 3B (102), 1B (10)
Emilio Bonifacio 3B (86), SS (20), OF (17)
Brian Buscher 3B (25), 1B (13)
Mark DeRosa 3B (108), OF (28), 1B (10)
Greg Dobbs 3B (16), OF (15)
Jerry Hairston Jr. 3B (49), SS (42), OF (41), 2B (12)
Jack Hannahan 3B (84), 1B (18)
Josh Fields 3B (49), 1B (17)
Jake Fox 3B (27), OF (26)
Adam Kennedy 3B (82), 2B (50)
Jeff Keppinger 3B (67), 2B (22), SS (11)
Mark Loretta 3B (23), 1B (17)
Casey McGehee 3B (71), 2B (22)
Jhonny Peralta 3B (104), SS (41)
Mark Reynolds 3B (130), 1B (28)
Adam Rosales 3B (57), 1B (11)
Pablo Sandoval 3B (120), 1B (26)
Ian Stewart 3B (121), 2B (21)
Mark Teahen 3B (107), OF (32)
Joe Thurston 3B (68), 2B (47)
Juan Uribe 3B (44), SS (41), 2B (38)
Chris Woodward 3B (18), 2B (11)

OUTFIELDERS

Jose Bautista OF (79), 3B (26)
Willie Bloomquist OF (84), SS (38), 2B (14)
Michael Cuddyer OF (117), 1B (34)
Adam Dunn OF (84), 1B (67)
Darin Erstad OF (28), 1B (15)
Willie Harris OF (98), 2B (19)
Chase Headley OF (114), 3B (28)
Eric Hinske OF (35), 3B (13)
Micah Hoffpauir OF (36), 1B (27)
Chris Gimenez OF (20), 1B (18)
Garrett Jones OF (53), 1B (30)
Matt LaPorta OF (39), 1B (10)
Robb Quinlan OF (23), 1B (17)
Ryan Raburn OF (70), 1B (10)
Bobby Scales OF (20), 2B (11)
Luke Scott OF (26), 1B (10)
Nick Swisher OF (134), 1B (20)
Eugenio Velez OF (51), 2B (31)

Double his 2nd half when he went 49/14/42/.300/2 in 267 at-bats and you’d have bottom of the barrel expectations for him.  That would mean no step forward.  If Votto continues to progress, you’re looking at a guy that could easily give you 32 homers, 10 steals and a .300 average.  This is enough reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but, wait, there’s more.  If you buy into Joey Votto for 2010, I’ll also throw in a climbing walk rate and OPS for absolutely free!  Don’t want it?  Who cares, it’s free!  Before you have time to answer because I’m talking so fast, throw in a home park that makes the new Stadium Adjacent to the House That Ruth Built spacious.  Want more?  Tough noogs, it’s all I have.

After stealing 30+ bases for two straight years, Grady looked like Kendry Morales on the basepaths, stealing only 13 bases in 21 attempts.  There’s a reason for that.  He suffered the groin issue/sports hernia or groinia back in spring training of 2009, so naturally he wasn’t running like he used to.  Consider this, he still stole 13 bases with a groinia.  You wouldn’t even be able to open a jar of pickles.  With the problem corrected, he should steal at least 20 bases again.  Then consider the elbow problem he was dealing with for most of the season.  He still hit 18 homers with that.  The average was anemic at .248.  But he also dealt with some bad luck, so that should go back up to his career norms, think .270.  For 2010, I could see Sizemore giving a 110/27/80/.270/25 line with a chance for more and returning 2nd round value.  He is definitely a keeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

1. Top hitters at weak positions rule in keepers.

Utley, Mauer, Hanley, et al. are top keepers.  I’m not a fan of drafting Mauer very early on in redrafts.  But in a keeper league, I’m assuming you have him for a lot cheaper than he’ll go in redrafts, especially when considering he went late in 2009 drafts because of back issues.

2. Value is a trump card.

In the above Utley/Marmol example, I knew Marmol would be very cheap on your team because he was nothing but a middle man in 2008.  Though he had the stuff to be the closer in 2009 and Kevin Gregg blocking him — ha!  Are you keeping Marmol over Miguel Cabrera?  Not unless Nurse Ratched just gave you a lobotomy.  Would I have told you last year to keep a 20th round Marmol over, say, a 8th round Vernon Wells?  Yes, I would’ve.  Another example of value as trump card, Derrek Lee in the 6th round or Kendry Morales in the 20th round?  Kendry Morales wins.

3. Try to figure out who your leaguemates are keeping.

Or the inverse of that, who will be available on draft day.  This is sometimes easier said than done, but you should be able to gauge more or less the guys that will be kept.  For instance, if there’s going to be no top 3rd basemen in the draft, it makes Kevin Youkilis in the 3rd round a lot more appealing.

4. When in doubt, keep a hitter.

I’m not opposed to keeping a pitcher or two, but if I could have my druthers — those are MY druthers! — I’d keep hitters.  Same that holds true for redraft leagues holds true for keepers.  Pitchers are unpredictable from year to year.

5. Take a gamble on upside.

Some players have top 50 upside.  Think The Dread Pirate.  Am I gambling on upside over a proven commodity?  No, I’m not.  But if you keep, say, 5 keepers, take 4 proven guys and gamble on one guy to have some upside.

6. Don’t be cute; go for the win this year vs. the future win.

This point couches point number five.  Don’t overload on future talent.  I’m sure Strasburg will be dynamite.  He may even be dy-no-mite.  That doesn’t mean you’re playing 2011 before 2010 even starts, future boy.

Let’s tackle average first.  In 2009, his line drive rate fell (15.4% from 18.9% in 2008) and his walks plummeted (9.2% from 15.4% in 2008).  Meantime, his fly ball rate went through the roof (for him) from 30.6% in 2008 to 40.3% in 2009.  His K-rate also went up.  This leads me to think he was swinging at balls he didn’t used to swing at and trying to do too much with them.  This isn’t much of a limb, the numbers bear this out with him swinging at nearly 5% more pitches outside the strike zone.  This might sound Tim McCarverish, but he needs to relax, wait for his pitch and his average should turn around.  I’d bet on a .270 average from him in 2010.  As for the evaporated power, it’s a bit trickier.  His home run per fly ball ratio in 2007 was 19.8%.  That seems to be an outlier.  He’s probably closer to a 10-12% home run to fly ball hitter.  That still puts him in the 15 homer range.  The steals are there, obviously.  So if a 15/40 hitter with a .270 average is a keeper for your team, I’d keep B.J. Upton.

Frankly, I’m worried.  But we had so many good times!  I’m not prepared to throw him in the schmohawk category just yet.  I won’t do that until I start to see how early he gets drafted.  My guess is he’ll go way too early.  But this is a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper post, and that shizz means you have Reynolds already for mad cheap — that’s Jim Cramer’s brother’s show.  Now scream like you’re a lobster going into boiling water.  Just remember some figures.  Someone who strikes out 200 times, is not a good bet to repeat a .260 average.  Reynolds isn’t plain old fast.  He gets good reads and is “sneaky fast,” courtesy of Mark Grace.  “Sneaky fast” is a recipe for a guy that may only steal 12-15 bases next year.  So don’t rely on Reynolds getting 24 again.  Finally, 44 homers seems like the apex on Mt. Mini Donkey.  Does he hit monster shots?  Beef pho sho!  So, even if he has no tolerance for chucklefannies, he’s definitely a fantasy baseball keeper, assuming you have Reynolds for cheap.  Just keep your expectations in check.

In nearly 700 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Wieters had a line of .343/.438/.576.  At 6 feet 5 inches, he had some saying he was “Mauer with power.”  Turns out Mauer had power, which worked out for those who love to rhyme, and Wieters had rookie hiccups.  It wasn’t until the tail end of the year when Wieters started to show some of his promise, hitting .362/.425/.511 in September.  In 2010, Wieters could get to a line of 70/17/85/.300.  If those numbers look familiar, you might be Pablo Sandoval.  Check your midsection for confirmation.  That was near my 2009 projections for Sandoval; Wieters isn’t far off.  Those numbers are also a baseline.  There’s definite upside.  So there may just be magic in that cardboard sword of Lenn Sakata.  Heaven knows there’s magic in his loincloth.

In 378 at-bats last year, Gordon Beckham came away with the line of 58/14/63/.270/7.  The Royal We is not going to sit and say add 50 games worth of stats to his numbers and look at how beautiful they are, but it’s fair to say he will get more Runs.  Ozzie hit him 2nd for 218 at-bats.  There’s no reason why that should stop.  So let’s give him 85 Runs.  Since we can’t have our ice cream and cake and cake and eat it too, I’m not going to give him any more RBIs.  If he’s batting 2nd, he’s not also batting 8th. (It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.)  Beckham stole more bases when he hit 2nd than anywhere else in the order.  (Not many, but still it is true.)  So let’s say he gets 14 steals.  He did steal 18 bases in his last year of college, so it’s not a huge termite-infested limb we’re traipsing out onto.  He hit more homers from the two hole.  Not sure what lineup protection he actually got from the middle of the White Sox order, but let’s assume he did.  So let’s give him 18 homers.  Seems pretty conservative.  I like that.  Less you expect, less you’re disappointed.  He strikes out a decent amount and he’s prone to slumps.   Average can come down from .270.  Doesn’t have to, but can.  Let’s assume it does.  Again, less expectations.  Okay, so we have a 2010 line of 85/18/63/.260/14.  That’s a top 10 3rd baseman with upside for a bit more.  I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.

Psyche!  Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment.  Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell.  Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday.  As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

Matt Wieters – .362/.425/.511 in September.  Just wanted to get the hype going early.  Carry on.

Rajai Davis – Sure, steals don’t have a face.  But, if they did, they’d look a lot like Rajai Davis.  Chances are if you own him, you have him on the very cheap.  A cheap guy that could get you 50 steals in 2010?  Where do I sign up?  (I can’t wait until someone finds us who Googles:  Where do I sign up? + cheap Nazi bitties)

Kendry Morales – This year he’s been nearly as valuable as Mark Teixeira.  Zoinks!

Eric Young Jr. – We started this sucker with a Rockie and, Harang nabbit, we’re gonna finish it with one. So Junior’s not really getting any playing time right now, but this isn’t about this year, is it? Rhetorical! 2010 should be Young’s year to shine and when he shines he’ll be doing it with 40+ steals. For a guy that you can probably keep on the super cheap in deep leagues, that’s a lovely thing. Not a Lovey thing, that’s J.P. Howell’s Mom.

Nelson Cruz – In 2010, he’s a lineup switch or an injury to someone else away from being a top 20 hitter.  He has the power (30+) and speed (20+) combo to do it, the only thing missing is the Ribbies and Runs — Ma, I’m sick! Cause you ate at that damn Ribbies and Runs Joint!

Jayson Werth – Another guy with 30 HR power and speed.  Maybe it’s the landing strip on his face — does he bikini wax his chin? — But I wasn’t a fan of Werth coming into this year.  I was wrong — Or, in this case, wreng.

Ian Stewart – I’m not saying keep him over Utley or Hill, but he’ll be eligible at 2nd next year and he’ll only be 25.  Your apprehension with low averages already cost you Mark Reynolds this year.  “Those who something or something are destined to repeat it.”

Troy Tulowitzki – Confusing metaphor in 3, 2, 1… Tulo’s gritty and hard-nosed like a dock worker that only eats kielbasa.  Maybe that’s why he feels like he’s been around forever.  Like you expect him to show up in one of those black and white scratchy films where all the players toss the ball around like they’re on speed. Whatever the case, he’s only going to be 25 next year.  A 30/20 season is not out of the question.

Joey Votto – He was dealing with some shizz earlier in the year that cost him over a month of the season.  So let’s say he had his average month of 5 homers during that month off, then he’d be blowing his 2008 season out of the water and taking that natural step forward many predicted.  For a player who will only be 26 next year, don’t be thrown off by the late season tailspin this year.  He’s still very capable of being a 30 homer, 10 steal, .300 average 1st baseman.  With upside from there.

Chris Davis – I’ll be perfectly honest.  I love when guys fail after they are hyped.  This allows their value to fall and people to begin to forget them.  I’m actually kind of excited to even see if Josh Hamilton falls far enough in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts for me to have a chance at drafting him.  The same goes for Davis.  Last preseason, I talked about how Davis was overrated and ended up with Mini Donkey on all of my teams as a replacement.  That worked out okay.  With the emphasis on the imaginary “very, very” before okay.  In 2010, it might just be Davis’s turn to strikeout 200 times and give decent production.  As a keeper (I’m assuming he was dropped and you have him for cheap), Davis is looking much better for next year.

Aaron Hill – Do I smell a theme? No, that’s lunch.  I mean, the Blue Jays. Ah, yes.  They smell like rotisserie chicken. No, that really is lunch.  Hill will only be 28 at the start of the 2010 season.  As I’ve been saying just about the whole season, I don’t think the 30+ homers this year is a fluke.  At second base, you can do much worse.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate has 15 homer power and 35 steal speed.  Shane Victorino just called and said he wants his stats back.

I don’t think Neftali Feliz will have much value this year as he’s currently being used.  But this isn’t about this year.  This is about fantasy baseball in the year 2010, when we’ll be able to take a pill that tastes like a four course dinner.  The lack of Neftali Feliz value this year is actually making him even more attractive for next year.  The Rangers are going all anti-Dusty up in this mug and limiting Feliz’s innings.  In 2008, Feliz threw just over 127 innings.  This year he’s on pace for nearly the same amount of innings.  Nice.  We don’t want him worn out in 2010.  I see the worst case scenario being the Rangers hold him down in the minors next year until May.  Best case, he’s up from jump street and gives you numbers comparable to Johnny Cueto pre-All-Star Break with more Ks.   In deep leagues, I’d absolutely keep Feliz if the price were right.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Carlos Gonzalez – Sure, he’s hot right now.  But let’s put that aside.  Because as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.  Gonzalez has been a five-tool prospect for a while now.  (Five-tool doesn’t mean he should make some weird fetish porn.)  He can hit 20+ homers and steal 20 bags as early as next year.

Billy Butler – Butler’s moobs seem like they’ve been in puberty forever.  Sprout some hairs and mature already!  I don’t think Butler’s going to explode for 40 homers next year or suddenly have any speed, so don’t take this the wrong way, but Butler’s an early favorite to be on all of my teams next year like Reynolds this year.  If he can get out of his training bra next year, he could be a cheap 90/25/110/.320 guy.