We all know Chone Figgins loves stealing 2nd base, but he might be starting early this year. After a brisk calisthenic session, Don Wakamatsu decided to try Figgy at 2nd base with Jose Lopez shifting to 3rd base.  The Mariners haven’t had this amount of speed at 2nd base since they faced David Eckstein and Ichiro moved up 50 steps.  Suddenly, Figgins’s Sparky Anklebiter power and top tier speed looks much better.  It would catapult him to the top 7 of the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010.  I’d rank him right after Cano and in a promising tier.  Going for steals at 2nd base wouldn’t hurt nearly as much at 3rd base.  But he’s not there yet and, frankly, I don’t think the move to 2nd is going to happen, barring an injury to Jose Lopez.  When you have players comfortable at their position, you don’t mess with it for s’s and g’s.  But since we’re going down this road, it helps Jose Lopez’s value too.  Not as much though.

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I’ve mentioned a few times in the course of the rankings about guys I’d actually own.  In the 2010 fantasy baseball top 100, I say there’s 20 guys I’d actually own.  I’ll even pull the quote for you.  In the F-Her blurb, I said, “If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.”  See, I did say it!  So, I lied.  I’d own everyone in the top 100.  I’d own Lincecum, but he’d have to fall to me in the 3rd round; I’d own Mark Reynolds, but he’d have to be around in the 4th round; I’d own Mauer, but he’d have to be around pick 28.  And so on and so forth.  What I mean by there’s only 20 players I’d own is those are the only guys I could actually see myself getting in a draft considering where they’re being drafted and how I assemble a team.  I’d draft Nathan in the 90s, but his ADP is 75, so it doesn’t seem like it’s happening.  This also does not include the top 22 guys overall.  I’d own them all, except Lincecum.  Anyway, here’s the players from ranking 22 to 100 in the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball that I’d own:

24.

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The other day in the comments someone asked that I give some pairings for my first two rounds of the 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  I was going to do this anyway (you’re not the boss of me!), but sometimes I need a gentle nudge in the right direction.  Not a noodge, thank you.  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders and pitchers too.  We’ll go through those on another post.  For easy reference, the Royal We will be using the top 10 2010 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2010 fantasy baseball drafts:

Albert Pujols – Could really team him up with anyone, except another 1st baseman.  Preferably, I’d like to have Pujols and a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  Then on the turn you can grab an outfielder.  So Pujols, Zimmerman and Upton.  Yeah, that would be nice.

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Here, friend, are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2010 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to  read more and see their 2010 projections.  This is a supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ramon Hernandez – He’s unexciting3.  But so is losing your league.

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Last week, I participated in my first real draft.  I believe drafting the day pitchers and catchers report is a sign that you’ve lost your marbles.  So, when I heard this draft was for all the marbles, I figured those marbles will cancel each other out.  Nothing better than a good marble canceling to get the blood flowing.  And by blood flowing and marbles, I’m not talking Viagra or testicles, but you can continue to think that.  This team has a yet-to-be-determined nickname.  I’m thinking “Super Sizedmore.”  Or “Did A Coked-Up Tom Sizemore Draft This Team?” Or “Two Sizemores Too Big.”  Or I’ll just go to the fantasy baseball team name generator and let that think for me.  This team is very shallow.  Why ‘perts are drafting in such a shallow league?  No idea, I gave up trying to figure out the answer to that question for Lent.  The league is 12 team, no bench, 9 Ps, 5 OFs, MI, CI and one utility.  Anyway, here’s my first 2010 fantasy baseball team, done auction-style:

C:  Chris Iannetta — $5
C:  Carlos Ruiz — $1
1B: Carlos Pena — $17
2B:  Robinson Cano — $19
3B:  Ian Stewart — $9
SS:  Jose Reyes — $27
MI: Scott Sizemore — $1
CI:  Chipper Jones — $3
OF:  Justin Upton — $29
OF:  Curtis Granderson — $25
OF: Grady Sizemore — $24
OF:  Josh Hamilton — $15
OF:  Jason Heyward — $2
UT: Russell Branyan — $1
P:  Tim Lincecum — $29
P:  Zack Greinke — $24
P:  Chad Billingsley — $10
P:  Neftali Feliz — $1
P:  Joba Chamberlain — $1
P:  Marc Rzepczynski — $1
P:  Jose Valverde — $7
P:  Kerry Wood — $6
P:  Brandon Lyon — $3

My Outfield is Better Than Your Outfield

Um, yeah, it’s stacked.  I count 120 homers and 70 steals and that’s not including Jason Heyward, who I’ll probably drop.  ¿No queiro Heywardo?

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No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues.  If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain.  So in 12 team leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from.  Hey, Miguel Olivo’s dressed like Johnny Weir and he’s hitting!  What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y!  Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches!

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Jair Jurrjens went for an MRI the other day.  Results came back negative, which is oddly enough a positive.  That’s nice.  I wouldn’t go near him with your fantasy baseball team.  I don’t wish ill on anyone, except for Jamie Kennedy.  If you want risk, leave the mayo out in the sun for three hours.  If you want to win your fantasy baseball league, don’t go drafting a guy who’s already getting MRIs.  The list of players who have had arm problems in February and have gone on to have solid seasons is one:  Luke Appling, but he was a total hypochondriac and probably didn’t have any arm problems to begin with.  I’ve dropped Jar-Jar out of my top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and took 40 innings away from his projections.  Anyway, here’s some more goings-on for fantasy baseball:

Johnny Damon – My guess is the Tigers will get their Damon.

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I’ve been footballin’ like it’s 2010 over on the other side of Razzball and was happy to get the baseball side of my brain lubed up. You can see Rotoworld’s Drew Silva’s take on the first half of the mock here and the second half here.  And while you’re clicking random hyperlinks, click here and follow me on twitter.  I’d like to give an extra thank you to frequent commenter, Steve, for being a sounding board for my picks.  Blame him for the ones you don’t like and praise me for the ones you like.

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With the RCL sign ups in full bloom, we decided to take a look at what last year’s RCLs showed us.  I.e., what it took to win these fantasy baseball leagues last year.  Across nine 12 team leagues, you would think you’d have some wide variations, but it’s amazingly close what you need in each category to do average vs.

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Last year, I did an analysis searching for indicators that can help predict which pitchers are most likely to miss extended time due to injuries or have a huge dropoff in performance.  I followed that up with a post where I chose 20 Risky Pitchers for 2009 with the ambitious goal that 12 of the 20 would either fail to throw 2,000 pitches in the next season or see a FIP increase of 0.50 or higher (note: for the analysis, I’m switching to xFIP which is a new addition to FanGraphs and adjusts fly balls to the league average HR/FB rate).

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