Fantasy Baseball Advice

Many things have changed since November when we kicked off the 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper posts.  For one, the date.  For two, some of these guys are no longer that sleepery.  For three, hut-hut-hike!  As long as you don’t reach too far, sleepers can make all the difference on your team.  You’re not grabbing a sleeper in the first round.  You’re not like, “Hey, Drunky Cabrera, you walk that line, I’m going with Garrett Jones.”  You should have a solid foundation in the first eight to ten rounds, then mix some sleepers in after that.  If you click on the names for these players, there’s entire posts about them with their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some sleepers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Alcides Escobar – Forty steals from Alcides wouldn’t be surprising.  He’s especially nice if Web Gems is a category in your league.

Colby Rasmus – In front of Pujols and Holliday might hinder Rasmus’ running game, but he should still be good for 15-20 homers and 10 to 15 steals.

Ian Stewart – Who is this Ian Stewart you talk of?  I have never heard of him.  Okay, no fooling, but the other night I had a dream that Ian Stewart had a complete collapse and was benched for Mora.  Granted, the girl from Seymore Butts and Thomas Jefferson were also in the dream and I was smoking opium… Nevertheless!  Stewart’s really not far away from sleeper sell material if you need to draft him in the top 100.  12th round or higher?  Much better.  (Side note, I was at a sushi restaurant the other day — Grey loves sushi as much as he loves referring to himself in third person.  Was sitting at the sushi bar when a smoking hot girl sits down next me.  It was the girl from Seymore Butts.  I didn’t recognize her.  You can giggle and say I’m lying.  You’d be surprised how unrecognizable a porn star is in clothes.  It’s like putting glasses on Clark Kent.  So we start talking and she reveals who she is and asks me if I’d like a few free DVDs.  She has them in her car, which is parked in the back.  I agree; you would’ve too.  Don’t judge.  She gives me 5 DVDs.  For those who aren’t hip to porn DVDs.  Their covers are graphic.  As we said goodbye, I realized I was parked in the front of the restaurant at a meter.  Yes, I had to walk back through the restaurant to get to my car.  I could’ve stuck the DVDs under my shirt, but I manned up, and walked very quickly.  Still, everyone saw what I was carrying.  The sushi chefs’ smiles were priceless.  A group of women dining there looked at me like I was everything wrong with men.  Finally, I get outside.  Only to find a female meter maid giving me a ticket.  I put the DVDs behind my back and rush up to her.  Please, I tell her, I’m leaving right now.  It’s already started.  Buh-buh-but!  Just then, a group of teenagers approach from behind me and start screaming, “Check out his videos!  He’s a pervert!”  Yeah, I took the parking ticket.)

Brandon Wood – The time appears now, unless Scioscia thinks the time is not now and he goes with The Figgy Duets (Maicer and Aybar).  If Wood penetrates the lineup (sticking with today’s post theme), he could be Ian Stewart 10 rounds later.

Jay Bruce – If Bruce does what he’s capable of, he will be overrated in 2011.

Dexter Fowler – Sorry, even sometimes I admire my own work and the post title under Fowler’s name is classic.  And I don’t even get Showtime!  Fowler is in the unenviable position of a crowded outfield.  If he stumbles out of the gate, I could see his time being reduced.

Carlos Gonzalez – I’ve been meaning to write an entire post on this, but Spring Training’s falling through the hourglass, so this post will have to do.  CarGo has to deal with a crowded outfield too.  Somehow CarGo’s risen way up draft sheets while Fowler’s stayed pretty reasonable.  A 10/30 season from Fowler seems as likely as a 20/20 season from CarGo.  No reason CarGo should be priced that much higher.  I have CarGo about 20 places higher in my rankings.  Yet, I hear people returning from a draft where Fowler isn’t drafted at all and CarGo is going in the first 100 picks.  Huh?

Chris Davis – I’m a sucker for low average, high power, some speed guys.  It’s the new three outcome player.

Julio Borbon – Yeah, the Rockies and the Rangers have some upside candidates.

Nolan Reimold – Heal, Achilles’ heel.  Please.

Garrett Jones – Everyone seems to think Garrett Jones can’t build on his 2009.  And I’m kinda in that group.  But still, the Pirates will play him and he’s not exactly being drafted that high.

David Price – I gotta be honest, I’ve seen Price in drafts and I’ve had a hard time pulling the trigger.  I just picture myself curled up in a ball crying while watching him pitch against the Yankees or Red Sox.

Jonathan Sanchez – I’ve had no problem drafting this doode.

Carlos Quentin – If he can stay healthy, he’ll be overrated next year.  *fingers crossed*

Denard Span -  Yeah, he’s pretty yawnstipating, but there’s a place for that on some teams. (Damn, that was the worst sales pitch since David Price’s blurb.)

Geovany Soto – When he showed up camp forty pounds lighter, Soto said, “I used to be a little sluggish — like ‘I want to take a nap.’  Now I feel great and I just want to put myself in the best position to help the club.”  Sounds like a line from an afterschool special about how marijuana is a gateway drug.

Elvis Andrus – I’ve almost convinced myself that Andrus is going to be as valuable this year as Jose Reyes circa 2008.  Almost.  Like in a game of horseshoes.  A game of horseshoes!

It’s always good to look at spring training numbers to give you an idea as what to expect from guys for the season.  They’re facing top pitchers who are all displaying their best stuff.  No one needs time to get warmed up.  No one’s trying new pitches or getting a feel for the ball.  They are at the height of their game in March.  In fact, I think someone should propose to Bud that the World Series could easily be played in March.  Yes, The March Classic.  I like how that sounds.  Since these spring training numbers mean so much, I decided to look at the top slugging guys in March:

Corey Hart – Leading the charge with slugging at .976.  Obviously, no night games and wearing sunglasses is a recipe for success.

Mike Jacobs – He’s even hitting lefties this spring as he racked up 20 RBIs and 7 homers.

Travis Ishikawa – Five homers already and a slugging percentage of .649.  Wow, huh?  Seriously, reread the word before “huh.”  No, that’s a comma.  Before that.

Jed Lowrie – He’ll easily end the spring as Boston’s best hitter with a line of .462/500/.872.  Can anyone say MVP?

These are the top 4 sluggers for 2009 Spring Training.  That’s right.  Not 2010.  A real beauty pageant of names, right?  Seriously, please stop looking at spring stats.  Corey Hart didn’t come within 450 points of that slugging percentage for one single month of last year as he went on to his worst season in the majors.  Lowrie hit 2 homers and batted .147 in 2009.  If you need me to tell you what the other two did, you might need Matthew Berry’s help.  Spring stats mean nothing.  You should only be looking at who’s healthy, who’s winning position battles and who’s winning rotation spots.  The rest is meaningless.

Rookie pitchers give you a roofie.  Rookie hitters give you agita.  So why do we keep going back for more like a guest on Oprah?  It’s sorta like the old joke that Woody Allen quotes in Annie Hall.  We need the eggs.  Besides said eggs, if a rookie somehow/someway breaks out, he’ll help you win your championship.  Face it, if you draft properly in the first 7 to 10 rounds, your team will be competitive, but so should other teams.  It’s what you do after those rounds that makes the difference.  You’re not winning your league with A-Rod, but you could with Ian Desmond.  As wonky as that sounds, it’s true.  If you click on the player’s name, you’ll find whole posts and projections for each guy.  It’s like Santa woke up drunk in March.  Anyway, here’s some rookies to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

Member the last time we looked at FIP?  You were younger, you!  Still looking good.  Love the touch with the bitten down fingernails.  You’re like the Krueger brother who had to open jars for Freddy.  Billy, could you open these pickles for me?  These stupid nails. Okay, so I usually look at which pitchers are being lucky or unlucky monthly during the season, but let’s do a recap of who was lucky last year.  It might help with your drafting, but I do go over all of this in individual blurbs in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, where it’s applicable.  But thinking gives you the Mondays, so here I am.  On Friday.  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for all of last year. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Jair Jurrjens – -1.74 difference.  And that was before he went for an MRI on his shoulder.  P.W. Botha isn’t the only one getting The Gas Face.

J.A. Happ – -1.59.  Can Happ avoid the sophomore slump?  Sure, if Ryan Howard gives up cheesesteaks, learns to fly and knocks every ball down that is hit off of Happ.

Matt Cain – -1.32.  He should’ve regressed the entire year last year, but he Keyser Soze’d his way through it.  Unlike the above two names, Cain’s above a 7 K/9, so I have some love for him.

Randy Wells – -1.19.  Okay, Wells was also lucky last year.  Not great, but he does keep his walks down.  Kinda like my overweight aunt.

Bronson Arroyo – -1.16.  Eh, he shouldn’t be owned until July anyway.

Johan Santana – -1.00.  But he was injured.  But what if he’s not fully healed?  And the falling K-rate?  I don’t know… Damn, random italicized voice, you’re supposed to be for comic relief, not for making actual points.  My bad.

Randy Wolf – -0.93.  I don’t think anyone, including Wolf, really thought he was for real last year.

Edwin Jackson – -0.78.  Don’t you just love it when pitchers I’m not excited about end up on the list of pitchers to avoid?  Yeah, don’t wanna blow your mind right here, but it was kinda planned that way.

John Danks – -0.77.  Last year, I liked Danks and disliked Floyd.  This year, the opposite.  Danks for the memories.  Danks, but no Danks.  Danks for nothing.  You pick the bad wordplay.

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80′s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.