Fantasy Baseball Advice

Now’s the time when we put all of our 2010 baseball predictions in one place.  Then in October we can look back at this and laugh.  Oh, and we will laugh.  Big, bellowing, seat of your pants laughs.  Hindsight is indeed 20/20.  But where’s the harm in setting ourselves to look like jackasses?  We run a fantasy baseball blog, after all.  Grey’s picks in RED.  Rudy’s picks in BLUE.  Anyway, here’s our predictions for baseball’s post-season awards and whatnot:

AL Pennant Winner – Minnesota Twins – The Yankees would’ve been the easy choice here, but I’m a small market kind of guy.  Some would call me a hero.  Who?  I’m not sure.  Nevertheless!  I think Slowey and Baker have huge years, the bullpen is deep enough to take the Nathan blow and they have enough bats to beat the sorry AL Central pitching staffs.

AL Pennant Winner – New York Yankees – Unless I’m getting some type of odds on this thing, I’m taking the Yanks.  They were fortunate last year with the injury bug given their age but their team is perfectly built for that stadium and got Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez without giving up anyone with short-term value.

NL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Dodgers – May be the only time a team with the Opening Day starter, Vicente Padilla, is chosen to win the pennant.  Contrary to their choice for Opening Day, they have a solid staff for a playoff series and enough offense to beat any NL team on any given day.

NL Pennant Winner – Colorado Rockies – I can’t go and pick a repeat of last year’s World Series so I’m going to assume the Phillies’ 2nd half of the rotation and bullpen collapses.  I think the Cardinals are the only team in the NL Central that can win it and just feel that Wainwright/Carpenter won’t pitch more than 300 IP total.  The Dodgers’ have absolutely no SP depth behind Kershaw/Billingsley.  So I’m going with the Rockies.  Great depth, players with youth/upside, and no major weaknesses.

World Series Champion – Dodgers – Still never been to a World Series game and would like to go.  Thank you!

World Series Champion – Rockies - The Yankees can’t beat expansion teams in the World Series.

AL ROY – Scott Sizemore – Who’s going to steal at-bats from him?  Ramon Santiago?  The Ram-Santi?  C’mon, the Ram-Santi sounds like a shawarma place.

AL ROY -  Brian Matusz – The two Detroit rookies (Sizemore, Austin Jackson) both have potential but will be weak on AVG.  Any support might cancel each other out with Matusz winning the award with a 12-10/4.00 ERA/150+ K type season.

NL ROY – Stephen Strasburg – Lots of times the ROY doesn’t start the year with the club, I think this will be another time.

NL ROY – - Jason Heyward - A .280 / 20 HR season should do it.

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – He’s going to win at least one of these awards one of these years, why not this year?  Rhetorical!  (For what it’s Wuertz, I almost picked Slowey.  I’m crazy… like Jake Fox!)

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – There’s a lot of competition with Greinke, Verlander, Sabathia, Lee, and Lester but I’ll go with F-Her too.

NL Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw – His team can get him Wins, he can get Ks and his home park doesn’t hurt.  Plus, he pitches against the Padres and Giants every third game.

NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay – He’s going to enjoy his first year in the NL.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria – If Longoria can buoy his average and the Rays can sneak into the Wild Card, I like Longoria’s MVP chances.

AL MVP – Joe Mauer - Any catcher who can hit .330+ and 20+ HRs gets my vote.

NL MVP – Chase Utley – Pujols is too obvious for me.

NL MVP – Albert Pujols – Pujols is too obvious.

Now put your picks in the comments and we’ll look back on this in October and mock each other.

This initial installment is full of fellas who go twice in week one of the 2010 fantasy baseball season. Week 1 is always a “ball and rank ‘em” scenario. Guys who are either on really crappy teams, are fantasy irrelevant anyways, fill-ins for an injured bloke. I’m a huge proponent of streaming at least one waiver wire fodder every week. If you have built a team that is made to last the fantasy season you can take the risk of floating a guy here or there. Wins are the most unpredictable category in fantasy. So why not play the odds?

Ian Snell (@ Oak vs. Braden) (@ Tex vs. Feldman)
Guy is still riding his 17 k performance vs. St Mary’s School for the Blind, and everyone hopped on board after he got traded last year thinking he was the savior for a late season push. Wrong, guy is a 8-9th starter at best in fantasy. Only here because Clifton Phifer Lee (can’t make that up) got hurt and threw at Snyder. 2 wins vs. Oak last year, avoid vs. Texas.

Dallas Braden (Sea vs. Snell) (@ ANA vs. Saunders)
Pitched great at home last year. Not a high K guy and needs to work the screwball and change to be effective.  I like him for both these starts and could be a decent fill-in later on.

Jake Westbrook ( @ Chw vs. Buehrle) (@ Det vs. Verlander)
Yikes faces a great hitting team and then one of the best starters in baseball. He is the anchor for the sinking vessel this year called the USS Wahoo. 2 years away from really doing anything.  Looks like a mid-season trade chip to a contender, probably the Dodgers if he can stay healthy. Avoid till you see if he returns to form.

John Lannan (Phil vs. Halladay) ( @Nym vs. Santana)
I like this kid, could win 12-14 games behind a sneaky good Nats lineup. Draws the top 2 pitchers in the NL east. Better stats at home, may fair better in NY. Keep an eye on his first start, but a win may come at the expense of giving up six.

Zach Duke (LA vs. Padilla) (@ Ari vs. Ed Jax)
I personally like guys who give you decisions — Duke had 33 starts with 27 decisions.  Will give you decent numbers for a bad team’s number one. Has two favorable matchups.  Owned the Dodgers last year. Great fill-in this week and could be a relevant mixed league option for favorable matchups.

Nick Blackburn ( @ Ana vs. Saunders) (@ Chw vs. Buehrle)
One of my favorites for week one adds. Awesome versus the Pale Hose last year. Going to have to adjust to being an outdoor pitcher all year. Stats won’t jump out at you, innings eater who is a matchup delight. An ERA hovering around 4; decent 12 win plateau for the year.

Kevin Millwood (@ TB vs. Shields) (Tor vs. Marcum)
Pitched great in a hitters’ park a year ago, but can he pitch in a hitters’ division is another question? Anything near a 4 ERA in the AL East is a good accomplishment. Will be fantasy worthy most weeks.

Vicente Padilla (@ Pitt vs. Duke) (@ Fla vs. Johnson)
Probably the number one add in most leagues based on his 2 start appeal for week 1. Pitched great for the Dodgers down the stretch.  Good offense leads to at least double digit wins. Gotta like both his starts against teams that are inferior to his. Not a stellar spring, but he is Vicente Padilla. So temper your expectations. Could be useful all year in a mix and matchup scenarios.

These are the leading hitters in the major leagues for last April.  Do I think every hitter does the same thing every year?  No, I don’t.  But hitters do tend to follow patterns.  If these players were good in April last year, there’s at least a chance they will be good this year.  Also, as I went over in this spring training stats post, just because a hitter isn’t hitting in March doesn’t preclude a big April.  Anyway, here’s some top hitters for the month of April last year:

Carlos Pena – Right now, he couldn’t hit the dirt off a hoe (the farm tool, guys, c’mon).  Last year, 9 homers in April.  Year before, 6.  Pre-All-Star Break last year, 24 homers.  Yeah, he tends to start hot.

Adrian Gonzalez – 22 homers pre-ASB in 2008, 24 homers in 2009.  9 homers in April, 11 homers in May.  Think about this shizz for a second.  25 homers pre-ASB in 2010 then he’s traded to the Red Sox.  As Sgt. O’Malley would say, “Top of the morning to ya!”

Alfonso Soriano – Was solid in April (7 HRs, 4 steals, .284).  Has been better in the first half the last couple of years.  (Couple is a sneaky way of saying two, yet making it seem like it’s more than two.  Girlfriend, “How many dollars did you leave on that twenty dollar bill?”  You, “A couple.”  Later in the relationship:  You, “How many of my friends did you sleep with?” Girlfriend, “Four.”)

Ian Kinsler – When you skip the last month of every season, it only makes sense that you would be good in the first.  If Kinsler isn’t good in April, then you really have worries.

Raul Ibanez – There’s quite a few older players on this list.  Makes sense to me that an older player would start well only to trail off as the season starts to take its toll.

Justin Morneau – April’s been historically his 2nd best month after May.  This could change with the new stadium.

Bobby Abreu – By far his biggest steal month last year was April.  See Ibanez’s blurb or seven-eighths of an inch above.

Dexter Fowler – Not much of a sample size here, but last year he stole 9 bases in April.  Maybe he was trying to prove his value to the club.  Maybe this year he’ll need to do the same thing.

Torii Hunter – From 2007 to 2009, he’s been superior in the 1st half of the year.  Isn’t it weird how 2007 to 2009 is three years, but if you subtract 7 from 9 it’s two?  Yeah, maybe it’s just me.

Jorge Cantu – Was good for power last April.  Was not good in any other month.  That’s Was (Not Was) for you crazy 80′s kids.

While the merits of what someone is hitting or not hitting in Spring Training can be debated, where they are hitting or not hitting is important to look at.  First, I want you to refresh your pretty little brain with the impact of lineup position on Runs and RBIs.  Welcome back!  Anyway, here’s some players whose value dips or shoots up (easy, Hamilton) due to 2010 lineup position:

Alexei Ramirez – He tends to start the season slow and he’s slated to bat ninth.  That’s a recipe for yawnstipation.

Ben Zobrist - Here’s what I said about Zobrist in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, “Zobrist’s homers don’t seem as fluky as they might appear.  He maintained a 17.5 HR/FB in 2009 and a 17.4 HR/FB in 2008.  Granted, that was a smaller sample size.  So he may look like David Eckstein, but the only thing they have in common is neither is Jewish though their names sound like they are.  Zobrist’s average seems out there; he looks closer to a .270 hitter.  He was a utility man coming into 2009 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he left 2010 back in that role.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Well, I could be wrong.  Zobrist will be hitting third for the Rays.  The doubts I had about Zobrist coming into this season are a bit assuaged by this lineup position.  I still don’t think Zobrist hitting third will last the whole year, but who goes from hitting third at the start of the year to the bench?  Oh, wait…

Casey Kotchman – Should hit third against righties.  Look at Casey making a play for fantasy value!  Unfortunately, he probably won’t play against lefties with Garko stealing ABs.  If you can somehow work a platoon of Kotchman into your fantasy lineup (I’m thinking mostly AL-Only leagues), Casey could be a steal.  Damn, every time I say I’m done with a player, they pull me back in.  So who’s hitting third vs. lefties? Glad you asked, random italicized voice.

Franklin Gutierrez – Will hit third vs. lefties.  Though The Big FraGu is slotted into the 7 hole vs. righties, hitting in front of the catcher and Jack Wilson.  On the bright side, this is contingent on the health of Bradley and Griffey Jr., who’s now older than Griffey Sr. from when you remember him.

Jose Bautista – Hitting leadoff.  That could also be the answer to, “Where did all of Aaron Hill’s RBIs go?”

Travis Snider – Currently stuck between John Buck and Alex Gonzalez.  That’s like the middle seat between Afa and Sika.

Gaby Sanchez – This could change, but right now he looks like he’s stuck in the eight hole.  Luckily, no one’s actually drafted him anywhere, except for me.  Yay me.

Shane Victorino – This move has been covered by me numerous times before, but, yeah, he’s in the 7 hole and Crapolanco is appropriately enough in the two hole.

Ian Desmond – Batting 2nd.  “Mr. Desmond, roses just arrived from you.”  “Who are they from?”  “Grey from Razzball.”  “Put them in the pile with the chocolates he sent yesterday.”

Marlon Byrd – The five hole.  He’s going to prove to be so borderline mixed league worthy, I have a feeling there will be at least 1700 comments this year asking me if they should drop (Insert Schmohawk) and pick up Byrd.

Orlando Cabrera – O-Cab’s in the two hole.  He’ll probably be more valuable than most middle infielders that are owned more than him, but what freakin’ fun is it owning Orlando Cabrera?

Jay Bruce – Until Rolen gets injured, Bruce is in the 6 hole.  Bruce could be this year’s Kemp in regards to a losing value from lineup position.

Julio Borbon – Will be hitting on top of a very potent lineup.  Borbon will have to really struggle to not have a huge year.

Elvis Andrus – He has not left the building, but he has parked in the nine hole.

Albert Callaspo – Hitting third.  For all of you crazy excited about Butler this year.  He’s hitting in this lineup:  DeJesus, Podsednik, Callaspo, Butler, Ankiel, Guillen, Betancourt, Kendall and Getz.  There’s about eight names there that wouldn’t make the starting lineup for any other team.  Fun times!

Magglio Ordonez – I really don’t think he’s ownable anywhere, but he’s set to bat third.  I could probably knock in 90 and score 90 in the three hole of a major league lineup.

Scott Sizemore – Will be allowed to ferment in the 8 hole as he proves his mettle for a month or two.  I have a feeling that I might be jumping off the Scott Sizemore bandwagon sooner vs. later.  We shall see.

Erick Aybar – Leading off for the Angels. Will get Runs, some steals and average, poor homers and RBIs.  His stats are like looking at Yunel’s in the mirror.  I will call you, lenuY.

Garrett Jones – Will bat third.  If you can have a fantasy lineup of mostly three hole hitters, you’re at least pointing in the right direction.

Colby Rasmus – Batting in front of Pujols.  A 2001 Bonds would get pitches to hit in front of Pujols.

Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler – Top of the Rockies order.  That’s rated 3 M for Mmm…

Everth Cabrera – At some point, I hope the Padres make the right decision and put EverCab at the top of the order, but I don’t think it’s happening out of the gate.

Pablo Sandoval – Hitting third behind Rowand and Renteria, which sounds like a VD clinic.

Nick Johnson – Hitting 2nd for the Yankees.  Johnson has a .400+ career OBP.  Last I checked the Yankees scored a lot of runs.  Anyone want any action on the over/under for the amount of times Johnson’s on second and gets held at 3rd on a single?  65? 70?

Nolan Reimold – I’m not even sure he’s in the lineup.  Trembley’s talking about starting Pie.  How dare you judge, Reimold!  Doode, your team’s going nowhere fast — play Reimold!  Sorry, this has nothing to do with this post.  But I thought some of you might not have heard and I didn’t want to do a whole post on this, though I did have the title, Effin’ Pie.

Alcides Escobar – Batting at the bottom of the lineup for right now, but Weeks is one aggressive burp away from the DL.

Joe Nathan and Huston Street are gone and everyone moved up.  That’s why people like Matt Capps and Chris Perez have done little but squat on the john yet moved up the rankings.  Though I still managed to find a way to not move up Brian Fuentes.  The way we’re going there won’t be any $12 Salads by May.  Then what?  $8 Side Dishes?  Who needs roasted cauliflower with truffle oil?  Not me!  I’m happy with a baked potato.  Yes, sir!  Hmm… Maybe I shouldn’t write these right before lunch.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon (+1) (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
2. Mariano Rivera (+1) (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain)
3. Jonathan Broxton (+1) (George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

4. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (Ryota Igareshi, Jenrry Mejia, Eddie Kunz)
5. Heath Bell (+1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (John Grabow, Esmailin Caridad)
7. Joakim Soria (+1) (Juan Cruz, Roman Colon, Kyle Farnsworth)
8. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Brandon League)
10. Brian Wilson (+1) (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
11. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
12. Rafael Soriano (+2) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell)
13. Billy Wagner (+2) (Takashi Saito, Kris Medlen)
14. Ryan Franklin (+4) (Jason Motte, Josh Kinney)
15. Mike Gonzalez (+7) (Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen, Scot Shields)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Darren O’Day, Chris Ray, Neftali Feliz)
18. Octavio Dotel (+1) (Brendan Donnelly, Joel Hanrahan)
19. Leo Nunez (+1) (Dan Meyer, Brian Sanches)
20. Trevor Hoffman (+3) (Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins)
21. Andrew Bailey (-4) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Zimmerman in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Bobby Jenks (+3) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
23. Chad Qualls (+4) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
24. Matt Capps (+2) (Brian Bruney, Tyler Clippard, Mike MacDougal)
25. Jason Frasor (+5) (Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs)
26. Chris Perez (+1) (Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Kerry Wood)
27. Jon Rauch/Matt Guerrier (-26) Jose Mijares, Francisco Liriano)
28. Franklin Morales (-15) (Manny Corpas, Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street)
29. Ryan Madson (-4) (Danys Baez, Brad Lidge)
30. Matt Lindstrom/Brandon Lyon (-1) (Sammy Gervacio, Ed Wade’s Toupee)