1. Evan Longoria – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Longoria’s projections.

2. David Wright – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Wright’s projections.

3. Ryan Zimmerman – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Zimmerman’s projections.

4. Alex Rodriguez – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is A-Rod’s projections.

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball for Youkilis’s projections.  (Note:  He might not have 3rd base eligibility when the season starts, but he’ll get it soon enough.)

6. Mark Reynolds – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Casey McGehee.  I call this tier, “Where the hell are all the top 3rd basemen?”  If someone sees the top 20 3rd basemen, send them in my direction.  I went over the Reynolds fantasy move to The Big ‘More.  The gist of that post is he won’t be as bad as he was in 2010 or as good in 2009.  You go read it yourself, I only counted three tipos.  2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12

7. Adrian Beltre – I went over my Beltre fantasy when he moved to the Lone Star state.  To be completely honest with you, before he signed with the Rangers, he was in the tier of players I’m avoiding.  His move bumped him up to a more attractive tier.  I’m sure his mother is proud.  2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

8. Michael Young – I’m worried that the bottom on Young’s power is going to drop out.  His HR/FB% last year came down from its high of 2009, but it can still come down further.  Then you throw in a guy who’s aging and still refuses to take a walk.  I think his career decline is going to come fast and hard.  Like a 14 homer, 3 steal season is around the corner.  2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5

9. Casey McGehee – He’s more or less Pablo Sandoval with a bit more power and less average.  And that is the first time anyone’s ever been more Pablo Sandoval.  Usually they’re less.  Personally, I want power over average so I’d lean towards McGehee.  Plus, his average shouldn’t be terrible without some bad luck.  2011 Projections:  75/24/90/.280

10. Pedro Alvarez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Aramis.  I call this tier, “I’m going all in on one of these guys if I don’t get an elite 3rd baseman because shizz gets drastic after these two.”  I already went over my Pedro Alvarez fantasy.  If I miss out on the top 3rd basemen, Alvarez is the guy I want in every league.  He is Julio Upsidiero for 2011.  He needs a fantasy sleeper post to really beat into your heads how much you need him.  (Yes, I’ve even thought about how scary it’s going to be being pot-committed to watching the Pirates.)  2011 Projections:  70/27/85/.260/3

11. Aramis Ramirez – I only like Aramis because I’m all out of Drakkar.  See what I did there?!  It’s cologne humor!  I like Aramis this year because he seems to be going pretty cheaply in drafts.  Is he suddenly going to hit 35+ homers again?  Sure, and just because you replaced your Mom’s name on your cellphone with Natalie Portman it means it’s the star of Black Swan calling you three times a day.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280

12. Jose Bautista – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Sandoval.  I call this tier, “No, thanks.”  Anyone who is drafting Bautista is out of their flippin’ mind.  There, I said it.  I don’t even know how anyone’s drafting a guy who went from 13 homers in 113 games in 2009 to 54 homers in 161 games.  Doesn’t that just ring a bit weird for you drafters of Bautista?   His HR/FB% for his career is 13.8%.  Last year, it was 21.7%.  That’s absurd.  If you remove his best average month of July, he hit .242 in 471 other at-bats.  That was in his best season!  There’s still no warning signs?  How about the fact that once pitchers realized he was using a corked bat with Sammy Sosa’s signature on it, he hit .224 in September and October?  Still not enough?  Eh, go back and stick your head in the sand.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5

13. Pablo Sandoval – You know who Pablo Sandoval looks like?  No, not Rerun.  He looks like a young Lyle Overbay.  I obviously mean, his stats look like a young Overbay.  High teen power, good average.  It’s a’ight, I suppose, but if he struggles out of the gate the Giants won’t extend his leash anywhere near how long they did last year.  2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3

14. Placido Polanco – This tier goes from here until Rolen.  I call this tier, “There are so many more 3rd basemen that I don’t want compared to ones that I do want.” Went over Polanco’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

15. Chase Headley – I actually recommended him last year.  Well, they’re not all world wide web gems.  I obviously forgot he plays his home games at Petco.  In 295 ABs at home, 3 homers and a .237 average.  Last year Luis Polonia hit better in the Sexual Predator League at Rikers.  2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7

16. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

17. Scott Rolen – Post-All-Star break he had 188 ABs and 3 homers.  That’s someone you should draft.  Maybe you can platoon him in and out with Troy Glaus.  2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275

18. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “You have nothing here but upside. Meaning:  you may get nothing.”  I know, Ian Stewart buckled under the pressure of being nicknamed, Mini Mini Donkey.  It was a lot of brays to live up to.  So why do I still believe in him?  Because he really didn’t buckle under the pressure, he just didn’t get enough ABs.  With an everyday job, he’s a 25-30 homer, 5 steals and a .260ish average.  Of course, you might end up drafting Nadir Bupkis if Wigginton steals a lot of playing time from him.  Stewart will definitely see his share of the bench vs. lefties.  In this bear market of third basemen, it’s worth the flier on Stewart in the endgame.  2011 Projections:  65/22/75/.260/5

19. Chris Johnson – Is it bad when two of the bigger upside picks come from the Pirates and Astros?  Yes, yes it is.  Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.  2011 Projections:  65/20/80/.260/3 (<–optimistic but whatevs)

20. Danny Valencia – I see your upside, Danny Valencia, and I’m not that impressed.  Listen, you’re real deep into a position by this point.  If you draft Valencia, there’s a good chance you’re going to drop him by April 10th for a guy who starts out hot.  If Valencia starts off hot, then maybe you can flip him for a better piece.  If this doesn’t sound like the greatest upside pick in the world, it probably isn’t.  Best case scenario, he hits 17 homers with a good average.  It’s a’ight.  2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.300

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but here’s two that stand out:

Mike Moustakas – I already went over my Moustakas fantasy.  It involves some PG-13 nudity.  2011 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

David Freese – I’d actually rank Freese above Chris Johnson overall if he’s healthy.  I only slotted him down here to highlight him.  If he shows up to camp healthy, he could surprise with some power.  In 464 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, he hit 26 homers.  In 2009, he hit a homer every 20 at-bats.  He’s probably not going to blow your mind with his stats, but he’s being drafted crazy late, if at all, and could surprise.  2011 Projections:  70/20/80/.300/3

1. Albert Pujols – Pujols, a God amongst Schumakers. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/15/55/.320/6

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ah, how nice it would be to own Hanley and not have to worry about the shortstop schmohawk behind door number three. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/12/45/.315/16

3. Miguel Cabrera – Miggy for the AL MVP… Only because Omar Infante’s in the NL. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/16/60/.325

4. Evan Longoria – David Wright’s currently outperforming him by a smidge (<--technical sabermetric term), but Longoria has a bigger power upside. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/17/55/.285/8

5. David Wright – Because of the steals, he’s been more valuable than a ton of guys you thought were having better seasons. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. I’m in your head! Hey, left brain, you look like a pillow, I rest my head now. Thank you. Now I’m sleeping in your head, what are you going to do? 2010 2nd half projections: 45/13/55/.290/10

6. Joey Votto – I feel vindicated for writing his name all over my Trapper Keeper. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/16/55/.300/4

7. Robinson Cano – Notoriously a 2nd half hitter and this year he’s been purdy good in the 1st half. Put it together and you’ll have an overrated 2nd baseman next year. For now, yes you Cano. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/14/50/.330/3

8. Ryan Braun – Big fan of the Hebrew Hammer. He’s one of those players that can go into a two month zone. Obviously this ranking has nothing to do with his 1st half. I still believe. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/16/50/.315/9

9. Alex Rodriguez – In my crystal ball, I see a crazy hot streak for A-Rod. Or maybe I’m seeing a crazy, frosted streak in his hair. Hmm… 2010 2nd half projections: 50/16/60/.295/5

10. Matt Kemp – Torre might’ve put the slight brakes on Kemp’s out of control running game, but 15/12 is still within his sights for the 2nd half. (BTW, 15/12 was Wade Boggs’ vision. He could see through walls to skanky redheads and fried chicken. Why that’s not on his Hall of Fame plaque no one knows.) 2010 2nd half projections: 50/15/45/.285/12

11. Ryan Howard – Could be in an 1-for-75 slump and I’d still rank him higher than he deserves. Simply because he’s one of the few guys capable of a 15 homer month. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/22/60/.265

12. Prince Fielder – See Howard, Ryan or 1/8th of an inch above. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/18/50/.275

13. Justin Upton – Another guy that is being outperformed currently. He just needs to get hot for two to three weeks and he can get these 2nd half numbers. In talent I trust. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/16/45/.270/10

14. Josh Hamilton – I credit his good season with the role model on the dugout steps, Ron Washington. Well, it’s just that Hamilton’s healthy. Yeah, that’s probably it. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/15/50/.300/4

15. Roy Halladay – There’s pitchers who have had a better 1st half, but Halladay’s the 1st pitcher of the top 100 because he’s the safest. Game in and game out — eight innings, good ERA, Ks, WHIP and keeps his team in the game. 2010 2nd half projections: 9-4/2.60/1.00/100

16. Mark Teixeira – Drink up your PABST. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/15/55/.310

17. Matt Holliday – I’m almost definitely ranking Holliday somewhere in the 4th round next year because he just can’t get his act together in the first two months of the season, but we’re not in the 1st half anymore, so there’s that. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/14/45/.320/5

18. Adrian Gonzalez – Bummer that the Padres are competing and A-Gon looks destined to stay in Petco. Guess I’ll have to save the A-Gone post for another day. Gonzalez hasn’t had one extended hot streak and he still has 18 homers. Last year, he hit 16 homers in the 2nd half. I think he marginally beats that. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/18/55/.270

19. Ryan Zimmerman – Last year, Zimmerman hit 19 homers in the 2nd half. In the 2nd half of the last three years, he’s hit for a better average. Zimmerman at 19th overall is probably indicative of where he’s going to be ranked next year. I’ll just need to concur with January Grey. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/17/45/.285

20. Carl Crawford – Do I think he slows down in the 2nd half? Who am I, Ms. Cleo? Actually, yes I am and I do think he slows down. Outside of 2007, he’s consistently slowed down in the 2nd half. When forced to choose between a guy that slows down in the 2nd half and one that does not, I’m going for the latter. Be happy his knees are still good for the first few months of the season. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/8/40/.305/17

21. Carlos Gonzalez – This is admittedly higher than I thought I’d rank him, but if Kemp’s 15/10 and CarGo’s 13/10, it makes sense (in my head, at least). 2010 2nd half projections: 50/13/50/.280/10

22. CC Sabathia – It takes CC and the Pitching Factory a few months to really find his groove. If you were to argue Wainwright, Lee, Lincecum or Lester deserves to above CC, I hear ya. They’re ranked this way because CC’s been the model of consistency for a long time. You want safety in your SPs. 2010 2nd half projections: 10-2/3.00/1.10/95

23. Adam Wainwright – I regret not owning him this year. Could end up winning the Cy Young if voters get the first three months of Ubaldo out of their head. 2010 2nd half projections: 8-2/2.80/1.00/100

24. Cliff Lee - I just went over The Adverb’s move to Arlington. 2010 2nd half projections: 9-2/2.90/1.05/85

25. Tim Lincecum – Feels weird to say a 26-year-old is getting grandfathered into his ranking, but Lincecum is being ranked higher than he might deserve because of his past past, not his most recent past. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-2/2.80/1.15/110

26. Jon Lester – If Lester were in the NL West… Oh well, we can dream. 2010 2nd half projections: 9-3/3.05/1.12/100

27. Jose Reyes – This ranking is optimistic because I want to believe he’s going to be healthy in the 2nd half. Hey, at least I’m being honest in my dishonesty. 2010 2nd half projections: 55/5/25/.280/20

28. Ubaldo Jimenez – The last month of Ubaldo has me ranking him a tad under the other big guns. It’s not that low, save your conniption. 2010 2nd half projections: 8-4/3.00/1.10/90

29. Brandon Phillips – If you were to put a 20/20 guarantee on any other player at 2nd base, you’d be all over it. Not sure why, but people never seem to give him his props. Maybe cause his initials are BP. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/10/40/.265/10

30. Jimmy Rollins – Really struggled with whether to rank Reyes or Rollins first. I ended up going with Reyes because, while he is fighting an injury, Rollins is older and is beginning to show signs of slowing down. Oh, and if Rollins doesn’t turn it on in this 2nd half, he’s probably tumbling to around the 6th or 7th rounds next year. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/10/35/.280/15

31. Vladimir Guerrero – One of the hardest guys to rank. His park and lineup really is conducive to him having a monster year if he stays healthy. That “if” is the size of King Kong Bundy. Maybe Ron Washington can rub some of that white stuff on Vlad’s knee to numb the pain. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/15/55/.300/2

32. Kevin Youkilis – Apropos of nothing, Youk and Yao Ming should open a fusion restaurant, The Greek God of Woks. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/13/45/.290/2

33. Justin Morneau – He’s lower than some of the other big 1st base bats because of his injury risk. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/15/45/.290

34. Alex Rios – I kinda wanted to lower him further, but I’m fighting my CarGo ranking. If I put one 13/10 guy at 21, a 10/10 guy can’t get lowered that much. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/10/35/.265/10

35. Jayson Werth – Just as I held tight to Ibanez this year through thin and thinner, I’m holding Werth. You want hitters in solid lineups and hitter-friendly parks. It just makes your job easier. They get rinky dink RBIs and Runs that other players don’t get. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/14/50/.270/5

36. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate is my “This Guy Is Carl Crawford Without The Name Attached For Next Year’s Draft.” 2010 2nd half projections: 40/7/35/.285/20

37. Adam Dunn – Member when Big Donkey would steal a few bases a year too? How on earth did he ever do that? He’s 7 feet tall and 540 pounds. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/20/50/.255

38. Elvis Andrus – He will probably be above Reyes and Rollins in next year’s rankings. And that’s me quoting future me! 2010 2nd half projections: 50/2/30/.280/17

39. Josh Johnson – You might notice that pitchers are higher in the 2nd half rankings than they were in the preseason. I did this because by the 2nd half of the season we have a pretty good idea of which pitchers are pitching well. They still have risk, but a bit less than in the preseason. With that said, Johnson is lower than others because he still is an injury risk. 2010 2nd half projections: 6-3/2.95/1.05/100

40. Nelson Cruz – The short answer is, “Yes, the Rangers offense is redonkulous.” 2010 2nd half projections: 35/14/50/.275/7

41. Krispie Young – It’s a bit comical for me to rank him this high. But what can I say, I’m a sucker for Krispie. Plus, when you consider Rios and CarGo are ranked above him and he hasn’t done anything less than them. In fact, he’s been better. Make the airplane noise with your fork and chew on that. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/15/45/.250/14

42. Shane Victorino – He went 14/17 in the first half to CarGo’s 15/12. Where am I supposed to rank Victorino? He’s already probably too low as it is. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/7/40/.270/15

43. Clayton Kershaw – Imma let you finish, but if Kershaw could cut his walk rate, he could be one of the greatest of all-time. OF ALL-TIME! 2010 2nd half projections: 7-3/3.35/1.20/100

44. Felix Hernandez – I love F-Her long time and I will continue to make him my preseason Cy Young pick every year until he wins one, but now that they’re breaking up the March 2010 Mariners Dynasty he’s going to struggle for any sort of run support. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-3/3.10/1.10/100

45. Ian Kinsler - This ranking could be a sneak peek at how far Kinsler’s falling for 2011 if he doesn’t get his shizz together. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/10/40/.275/10

46. Brett Gardner – Is he that different than Crawford? Rhetorical! 2010 2nd half projections: 50/4/30/.280/20

47. Jered Weaver – No, I’m not confident he keeps his ERA and WHIP where they currently are, but his Ks are a thing of beauty right now. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-5/3.50/1.12/115

48. Mark Reynolds – Having him this high is a bit silly for a guy that strikes out as much as him, but you know what? Mark Reynolds makes people do silly things. Just the other day, I mailed a pizza and ate my telephone bill. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/18/50/.230/5

49. Mariano Rivera – Me, myself and I conferred for a while on where to start the closer run. I thought to myself if I were in desperate need of saves who would I be willing t0 trade for a top closer? Weaver or Reynolds for Mo seemed fair to me. To be continued in Broxton’s blurb. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-1/1.75/0.75/30, 18 Saves

50. Jonathan Broxton – This is not to say I would trade Reynolds or Weaver for a closer. Push came to shove, I’d trade someone like Garza for Dotel. Continued in Marmol’s blurb. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-2/2.25/1.05/45, 17 Saves

51. Carlos Marmol – Hmm… No, I’ve said all I wanted to on that subject. 2010 2nd half projections: 2-2/2.50/1.20/60, 15 Saves

52. Justin Verlander – Capable of better 2nd half numbers than I’m giving him but he doesn’t seem like he can avoid the One Inning Blow Up Blues. 2010 2nd half projections: 6-4/3.50/1.17/105

53. Troy Tulowitzki - One of the riskier players to buy into for the 2nd half. Will he have a setback? Not rhetorical and I don’t have the answer. I’m currently trying to buy him for pennies on the dollar. I figure what the heyski. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/8/35/.270/10

54. Derek Jeter – This ranking has as much to do with the pee-poor state of fantasy shortstops as it does about Jeter. In fairness to him — because God knows no one is ever fair to Jeter — he was solid in last year’s 2nd half. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/6/30/.320/10

55. Andre Ethier – I’m not a big fan of Ethier. He always seems to get overrated. His numbers are about the same as the latest hot outfielder grab off waivers. For examples, see Boesch, Pagan, Huff, Willingham, etc. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/12/50/.300/2

56. Ben Zobrist – One of my bigger regrets of the preseason was not pushing people harder away from Zobrist because I didn’t think his power was for real. Luckily, he has made up for his lack of power with steals. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/8/40/.280/15

57. Rickie Weeks – As always, this ranking for Weeks is completely contingent on his health. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/12/35/.260/7

58. Carlos Quentin – In the first half, CQ was as ownable as the Roman Coppola CQ DVD. Here’s to Quentin carrying his solid last few weeks into the 2nd half and not getting injured. And not going back to striking out every third at-bat. And raising his average. And maybe stealing a few bases. Okay, so there’s some caveats. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/16/45/.270/2

59. Jacoby Ellsbury – I think he’ll be back within two weeks of the break. He’s a factory outlet version of Crawford. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/4/40/.280/17

60. Joe Mauer – I can’t imagine any scenario where I’d actually trade for Mauer but this seems about right for his value. Same goes for McCann, but, wait, I haven’t gotten to him yet. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/9/40/.320

61. Brian McCann – I feel like I just read something about him. Oh, yeah! Right above. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/10/45/.280

62. Johan Santana – Member the days Johan was the top pitcher in the game? Yeah, I don’t either. Stupid mind-erasing drugs. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-3/3.00/1.20/70

63. Corey Hart – Sticking with the theme of guys who won’t be as good in the 1st half, the Brewers are trying to sell high. I think you should follow their lead. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/10/45/.260/4

64. Aramis Ramirez – Yes, I’m ranking him higher than I did in the preseason. In the preseason, I told you to avoid him, but now you should be able to get him for the price of an Adam Everett jersey. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/40/.300

65. Carlos Beltran – I think I’m giving Beltran too much credit with my projections for the 2nd half. He comes with injury risk, might not be ready to hit major league pitching and who knows if he’ll be able to steal any bases at all. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/45/.270/4

66. David Price – To be honest, I wanted to put him lower in the rankings, but his 1st half gave me pause. Wouldn’t be surprised if guys who aren’t even ranked (like Floyd) are actually better in the 2nd half. 2010 2nd half projections: 6-4/3.55/1.20/85

67. Paul Konerko – And another past sell guy. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/11/45/.260

68. Jason Kubel – Like Mel Gibson, you need to put aside your prejudices. These rankings are not about what people have done, it’s looking forward. Kubel’s been a 2nd half hitter the last few years and especially last year. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/45/.280

69. Curtis Granderson - As I learned in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, sometimes you have to admit your mistakes. In the preseason, I was so jazzed about the prospects of Grandy hitting in The Stadium They Built Adjacent To The Stadium Ruth Built that I lose sight that Grandy is a platoon player. He can’t hit lefties. At all. Though he is very valuable vs. righties (over three years, 65 homers and .301 vs righties; 10 homers and .202 vs. lefties). 2010 2nd half projections: 25/10/35/.240/7

70. Torii Hunter – I have the feeling Hunter follows his recent pattern of doing a lot less in the 2nd half. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/12/50/.280/5

71. Zach Greinke – He could make love to your eyes with his Ks while his bullpen will never return your calls. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-5/3.25/1.15/90

72. Mat Latos – Had a much better 1st half than this ranking shows, but as my last Buy/Sell pointed out, I expect his value to go down. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-2/3.60/1.10/75

73. B.J. Upton – Really has no business being this high, but when I tried to find someone who was capable of a 10/20 2nd half, I came up with Upton and Rickey Henderson, but Rickey’s retired for now. 2010 2nd half projections: 25/6/30/.255/15

74. Dustin Pedroia – I don’t think Pedroia’s necessarily going to throw Papi and Youuuuuuk on his back again this year with his newly-mended foot. Though I would not bet against him returning as soon as possible. Never underestimate the desire of the Sparky Anklebiter. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/8/25/.295/6

75. Ichiro Suzuki – If you’re wondering why Ichiro is this low, welcome to Razzball! A good place to begin is this post. Then the last one. Then the one before. Keep going onto you reach 2007. BTW, imagine instead of writing this on a blog, I had written all of this in longhand in a lined notebook. You’d have me committed. 2010 2nd half projections: 25/3/20/.330/15

76. Hunter Pence – Probably will get hot for a month and finish with a 24/17 line. Very solid, but he’s at 12/10 right now. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/30/.275/7

77. Dan Uggla – Dunn’s hitting .288 and Uggla’s hitting .285. In other news, water is dry. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/14/35/.255/3

78. Stephen Strasburg – He only has about 70 more innings or 10 starts left. I.e., he’ll be shut down the beginning of September. If you’re trading him, I’d try to get a guy much higher in these rankings because of the hype attached to the House of Strasburg. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-2/3.00/1.00/65

79. Michael Young – He’s the type of player you have on your team all year and forget about. Hit here, run there, RBI here, homer there. He never gets so hot you stand on your office desk and scream, “I own Michael Young. Now who what’s some?!” and he never gets so cold where you decide to search out Michael Young’s home address and pay him a visit. *knock, knock* Is Michael home? Okay, I’ll wait. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/12/45/.315/2

80. Adrian Beltre – Whether he was hitting for average or power, you could always count on Beltre for steals. This year he’s batting .330 with 13 homers and the steals have disappeared. Always an interesting deal he makes with the Contract Year Devil. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/10/45/.280/3

81. Adam LaRoche – Imagine if I were to put LaRoche this high in the overall rankings in the preseason, then I’d be writing for CBS Fantasy. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/14/45/.280

82. Pablo Sandoval – For most of the season, he’s looked totally confused like his impersonator, Fung Poo Kanda. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt with this ranking since he had a solid 2nd half last year. I still don’t fully trust him and he’s still a sell. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/10/40/.300/3

83. Rafael Furcal – With the way he’s been hitting lately, it’s hard to work in his nickname, 0-Furcal. But I still manage, huh? 2010 2nd half projections: 45/5/30/.315/12

84. Adam Jones – There will probably be some pedantic post from December Grey about how you need to trust your guys to meet their preseason projections with Adam Jones as the example. December Grey, “Hey, I’m not pedantic!” 2010 2nd half projections: 30/12/40/.285/5

85. Yovani Gallardo – Would’ve been much higher if he were completely healthy. I’ll put him down for 12 post-All-Star break starts and that’s being optimistic. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-4/3.25/1.25/80

86. Billy Butler - This ranking is assuming you don’t have a Largest Cup Size category. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/12/35/.315

87. Lance Berkman – If it wasn’t clear theses are rankings for only the 2nd half, here ya go. Relevant of nothing, if Berkman and Fred Savage had a kid, it would look like the host of Man vs. Food. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/14/40/.295/5

88. Martin Prado – Berkman, Prado and Huff? Belch. What am I doing here? I’ve lost my mojo. If you’re in a midseason league, ignore the last few picks. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/7/35/.310/3

89. Aubrey Huff – Right after I ranked Huff here, I jumped out the window. I’m now in a full body cast typing this with my nose. Achoo! 2010 2nd half projections: 40/14/50/.280/2

90. Jay Bruce - On the bright side, he’s capable of better numbers than he gave in the 1st half. The flip side, he couldn’t be more yawnstipating than the 1st half. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/14/45/.260/4

91. Chase Utley – He uses the same spit shine as Pedroia, but unlike Pedroia he’s dealing with a hand injury. 2010 2nd half projections: 20/7/25/.280/5

92. Manny Ramirez – Without his female hormone pills, he’s looked okay… If a bit emotional. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/40/.315

93. Francisco Liriano – Definitely didn’t go into the break with a string of solid starts. Actually, went in with the worst start in 2010. Have I mentioned his K-rate is beautiful? Okay, moving on. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/95

94. Carlos Pena – I don’t think Uggla and Dunn are gonna let Pena into their carpool anymore. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/15/45/.210

95. Cole Hamels – In the last three years, his post-All-Star break ERA is 3.23. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-4/3.30/1.28/90

96. Victor Martinez - Honestly, if his name were Mictor Vartinez, he wouldn’t have been ranked at all. And not simply because there’s no such player. 2010 2nd half projections: 25/8/35/.285

97. Ricky Nolasco – In his last five starts, 38:6 K:BB. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-4/3.60/1.20/90

98. Colby Rasmus – Member when I said he’s due for a correction? Was about a month ago. Here’s the link for a refresher. Since then, he’s hit 3 homers and batted .250. Um, okay. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/6/30/.270/7

99. Adam Lind – His 1st half went like this, he’ll get better, he has to get better, will he get better?, I don’t think he’ll get better, he’s definitely not getting better but I’ll hold him just because he might surprise me, I can’t believe he’s not surprising me and getting better, I hate Adam Lind’s guts and, finally, I’m dropping him for Travis Snider. Then he started getting better. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/15/40/.255 <--optimistic, but whatevs

100. Dexter Fowler – I could’ve put Bourn or Denard Dawg here, but who wants to read about them? You want to read about how they could’ve been put here but weren’t. Now that’s exciting! 2010 2nd half projections: 35/4/25/.280/15

101. Whoever Wins You The Championship – It’s now or never, people! Make your move or lose.

13 teams, roto, 5×5, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

Matt Kemp and Mark Teixiera and My Own $30+ Rule Squashed

I hardly ever break $30 in an auction. People spend like crazy in the beginning and you end up with incredible values later.  Well, there goes that.  Honestly, I think it’s because I’m in too many leagues this year, I just had to mix it up.  Usually when you spend over $30, your team ends up unbalanced.  Speaking of unbalanced…

Damn, Dawg.  This Team is Pitchy

Sometime after I drafted Shin-Soo Choo, I started to think to myself.  We’re about 100 picks in, maybe I should get a pitcher.  About 20 picks later.  I found myself thinking I really should get a pitcher.  Then I grabbed Dotel and I thought cool, but maybe I might like a starter.  About 40 picks after that I found myself battling for starters with one other team that needed pitching.  After I lost out on Bills and Hamels, I got my first starter, Jered Weaver.  I think I then vomited and grabbed Garza.  Then I sat in my own vomit and drafted Lackey.  Then I just started throwing SPs on my team in hopes if I grabbed 8 — that’s right, 8! — maybe I’d have 6 good ones.  There is a low max IP limit (1250) so I might be able to sneak by with 5 SPs and good closers.  Not that I have good closers.  Cust kayin’.

Chone Figgins and Brian McCann and a Teaspoon of WTF

Let me set the scene.  Victor Martinez just went for $17.  Brian McCann gets nominated and he’s sitting there at $13.  Clock starts ticking and I refuse to let him go for $13, so I raise it one dollar assuming someone will take him to $15.  Well, I just bought myself a $14 McCann.  This is actually one of my favorite picks of this draft.  $14 for the guy I believe can be the number one catcher.  Like I’ve always maintained.  I like McCann, just don’t like drafting a catcher in the 5th round.  Well, there are no rounds here.  Now, for the Figgy scrolls. Robinson Cano went for $24 a few picks before and, at 2nd base, I have Figgins right after him.  So when someone bid $19, I went to $20.  I thought someone would go to $21 and I’d let him go, but at $20 and at 2nd base, I gave Figgy one more chance.

I Punted MI.  Like, as in, I Didn’t Even Draft One

That’s right.  No MI.  Take that establishment!  Okay, technically, I didn’t punt it.  Sean-Rod didn’t have 2nd base eligibility when I did this draft, so rather than draft from the Valbuenas and the Izturii of the world, I grabbed two MRs at the end hoping to get vulture saves.  Worked for Morales, not so much for Guerrier.  Guerrier’s now gone for The Duke of Duchscherer.  Right now, I’m rocking Kelly Johnson at MI and this has been one of my best performing teams so far.  Go figure.

Chris Getz – Yeah, this list is not exciting.  This KC middle infielder is horrible. I have shown him love in 16-20 team leagues. With  Aviles’ iffy elbow, he may be only shining light not named Yuniesky.

Kaz Matsui - On the down side of career, was there ever an up? Still has legs, which may get you 18-22 steals. With an OPS of 625, which is what Pujols slugs.

Eugenio Velez – Needs to find a spot somewhere.  Maybe he sent a poison Edible Arrangement™ to Fred Lewis. 400 abs might give you 20 snatches. I like that word for SB’s.

Luis Castillo – I know what you’re saying, he is horrible, and you’re right.  Sorta. Can help with steals while not demolishing BA.

Cliff Pennington – Sounds like an insurance salesman. Has the gig at short for the ‘tics.  Prolly the best guy on this list so far as potential.

Coco Crisp – 450 ABs easy and a 10/20 season.  It ain’t glamorous, but these steal guys rarely are.

Michael Brantley – Could actually get drafted in a 12 team. I like this kid, reminds me of The Big FraGu last year.

Eric Young – May start season on bench or in AAA, which is the place for really, really bad drinkers. Awesome speed potential.  Barmes needs to fall down some stairs for him to have a shot.

Brendan Ryan – Seriously, Julio Lugo. Good potential for a MI spot league if you get a stud early. Could do worse, the Cliff Pennington of the NL.

Austin Jackson – May struggle early.  Given 400 abs could go 8/15, with a ton of runs leading off.

Will Venable – Quietly will hit 6th for the Friars.  Decent pop last year should carry over, who doesn’t like the son of a Max. 10/15 very attainable.

Nate McLouth – Hitting eighth.  He did hit .010 in the preseason, but I think Cox comes around on him.  Could be a nice buy low situation.  Then again, I’m not a huge fan of McLousy, so I need to stop touting him.

Carlos Zambrano – 1 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  In all fairness, he gave up five bloop singles… And two bloop 450 foot homers.

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 5 ER and the Win.  I don’t like Lowe this year; this start did nothing to change my mind.

Shaun Marcum – Had a no-hitter through 6 and a third until Nelson Cruz said I am more than an All-Star replacement.  Marcum’s one of those pitchers I’d be all over if he played in the NL.  In Toronto, s’okay.

Jason Frasor – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save.  He has guys behind him that can fill-in, but the Jays are playing for nothing.  So it’s six of one, half dozen of another for how long Frasor’s closer leash will be.  I’m not grabbing Downs or Gregg yet, but one more blown save and that could change.

Adam Lind – HR yesterday.  One down, 34 more to go.

Travis Snider – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  There will be quite a few of these type of days.  He can still hit plenty of homers too.  The bugaboo is he’s batting 9th.

Mike Napoli – Didn’t start yesterday.  Napoli is why the Ron Popeil method of setting and forgetting your catcher was invented.  Napoli doesn’t play every game, it’s how Scioscia do.

Carlos Gomez – 4-for-5, steal and a homer.  Gomez hit 2nd yesterday.  I mentioned in the comments that he could be this year’s Emilio Bonifacio.  What I mean is a guy that steals 4 bases in one week, everyone adds him then by the third week of the season people wish he’d die by falling in front of a marching band that tramples him.  Doesn’t mean I wouldn’t add him early, just don’t drop anyone you’ll regret.

Carlos Gonzalez – It’s an 8-for-10 day for CarGoes. Gonzalez was also thrown out by about a foot trying to steal.  Good to see him running, be nicer to see him getting better jumps.

Seth Smith – 0-for-4, 3 strikeouts.  Fowler owners and lispers rejoice.

Huston Street – Received good news that there wasn’t nothing seriously wrong with his shoulder.  Except that he can’t pitch.

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I’m guessing it’s before the All-Star Break.  Hey, look, it is!

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Reynolds isn’t ready to relinquish the Mini-Donkey title just yet.  Mini-Donkeys are stubborn.

Ian Stewart – HR yesterday.  In a land of men and Mini-Donkeys, there was one Mini-Donkey who was smaller than all others, but his heart and home runs were bigger.  His name was Ian Stewart and he’s Mini-Mini Donkey.

Mark Kotsay – Announcers were talking him up as a professional hitter that “adds flexibility.”  I don’t know but his wife makes me stiff.

Mike Jacobs – 0-for-4 as he hit cleanup.  I get the whole righty-lefty thing, but Mike Jacobs can barely cleanup his locker.

David Wright – HR yesterday.  After last year, his owners will take any power signs, but this homer was a fortunate, well-placed blast that was just around the pole.  Or as they call it in New York, The Pesci Pole.

Jose Reyes – Stole two bases in his rehab game.  It won’t be long now, ya’ll.

Casey Kotchman – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs.  As expected, he hit third against a righty.  For those that aren’t hip to handiness, there’s a lot more righties.  If you can find someone to get into your lineup when the Mariners face lefties, it could be worth it.

Garrett Jones – 2 HRs yesterday.  As our fantasy football contributor, Mark, said yesterday, “Robot Jones just fulfilled one of his 3 laws.”

Delmon Young – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  Deep leagues obviously need to react quicker than other leagues.  Who knows, Young is still, well, young at 24 and he was once a big time prospect.

Roy Halladay – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  What’s a bigger joke?  Halladay vs. the Nats or Lannan vs. the Phils.

Placido Polanco – 3-for-5, 6 RBIs, grand slam. That was a month’s worth of Feliz.  Spanish pun intended.

Ian Desmond – 0-for-2 as he hit 8th.  Willie Harris went 0-for-4 from the two hole.  While Desmond needs to hit to stay on the field, Willie Harris should not be batting 2nd.

Ryan Franklin – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Kazaam!

Chris Carpenter – 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks.  Rudy and I both agree that we wouldn’t own Carpenter this year.

Albert Pujols – 4-for-5, 2 HRs.  Poo-Holes is spitting fire.

Colby Rasmus – 2-for-4, HR.  Really wish I got him in a league this year.  I have a feeling it’s going to be his coming out party.  Maybe he’ll announce it in The Advocate.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-2, didn’t get the start, but was brought in to face the lefty Reyes.  If Dusty’s only playing Stubbs vs. lefties, it kills his value.  Worse, I think all the Reds’ outfielders — aside from Bruce — are looking at 350-400 ABs.  That’s Gomes, Dickerson and Stubbs.

Joey Votto – 3-for-5, HR yesterday.  It was a good day, Ice Cube.

Zach Greinke – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks.  Over/under for Greinke’s no decisions this year?  16? 17 maybe?

Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  Same thing every year for Verlander.  April early showers, bring May flowers.

Cameron Maybin – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  It’s no embarrassment to be overmatched by Johan, even Johan 2.0, but Maybin looked completely lost.  My bigger problem with Maybin is he only has 20 steal speed.  He’s not a burner.

Gaby Sanchez – 2-for-4 with a double.  Yeah, not that exciting but I own him, so you’re gonna have to occasionally hear about him.

Ken Griffey Jr. – You see this Dick’s Sporting Goods commercial with Griffey running around the store?  Is this commercial from 1993?  Griffey strained his hamstring somewhere in aisle #5.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 4 baserunners.  After Buehrle made one of the best plays by a pitcher ever, The Hawk, the White Sox announcer, said Buehrle’s had a storybook career.  Can’t wait for the movie.  The Mark Buehrle Story starring Michael Rappaport.

Carlos Quentin – No wonder he’s always getting hurt, I watched him get hit by pitches twice that he should’ve easily avoided.  He has the reaction time of Robert De Niro in Awakenings.

AL Pennant Winner – Minnesota Twins – The Yankees would’ve been the easy choice here, but I’m a small market kind of guy.  Some would call me a hero.  Who?  I’m not sure.  Nevertheless!  I think Slowey and Baker have huge years, the bullpen is deep enough to take the Nathan blow and they have enough bats to beat the sorry AL Central pitching staffs.

AL Pennant Winner – New York Yankees – Unless I’m getting some type of odds on this thing, I’m taking the Yanks.  They were fortunate last year with the injury bug given their age but their team is perfectly built for that stadium and got Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez without giving up anyone with short-term value.

NL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Dodgers – May be the only time a team with the Opening Day starter, Vicente Padilla, is chosen to win the pennant.  Contrary to their choice for Opening Day, they have a solid staff for a playoff series and enough offense to beat any NL team on any given day.

NL Pennant Winner – Colorado Rockies – I can’t go and pick a repeat of last year’s World Series so I’m going to assume the Phillies’ 2nd half of the rotation and bullpen collapses.  I think the Cardinals are the only team in the NL Central that can win it and just feel that Wainwright/Carpenter won’t pitch more than 300 IP total.  The Dodgers’ have absolutely no SP depth behind Kershaw/Billingsley.  So I’m going with the Rockies.  Great depth, players with youth/upside, and no major weaknesses.

World Series Champion – Dodgers – Still never been to a World Series game and would like to go.  Thank you!

World Series Champion – Rockies - The Yankees can’t beat expansion teams in the World Series.

AL ROY – Scott Sizemore – Who’s going to steal at-bats from him?  Ramon Santiago?  The Ram-Santi?  C’mon, the Ram-Santi sounds like a shawarma place.

AL ROY -  Brian Matusz – The two Detroit rookies (Sizemore, Austin Jackson) both have potential but will be weak on AVG.  Any support might cancel each other out with Matusz winning the award with a 12-10/4.00 ERA/150+ K type season.

NL ROY – Stephen Strasburg – Lots of times the ROY doesn’t start the year with the club, I think this will be another time.

NL ROY – - Jason Heyward - A .280 / 20 HR season should do it.

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – He’s going to win at least one of these awards one of these years, why not this year?  Rhetorical!  (For what it’s Wuertz, I almost picked Slowey.  I’m crazy… like Jake Fox!)

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – There’s a lot of competition with Greinke, Verlander, Sabathia, Lee, and Lester but I’ll go with F-Her too.

NL Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw – His team can get him Wins, he can get Ks and his home park doesn’t hurt.  Plus, he pitches against the Padres and Giants every third game.

NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay – He’s going to enjoy his first year in the NL.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria – If Longoria can buoy his average and the Rays can sneak into the Wild Card, I like Longoria’s MVP chances.

AL MVP – Joe Mauer - Any catcher who can hit .330+ and 20+ HRs gets my vote.

NL MVP – Chase Utley – Pujols is too obvious for me.

NL MVP – Albert Pujols – Pujols is too obvious.

Now put your picks in the comments and we’ll look back on this in October and mock each other.

Ian Snell (@ Oak vs. Braden) (@ Tex vs. Feldman)
Guy is still riding his 17 k performance vs. St Mary’s School for the Blind, and everyone hopped on board after he got traded last year thinking he was the savior for a late season push. Wrong, guy is a 8-9th starter at best in fantasy. Only here because Clifton Phifer Lee (can’t make that up) got hurt and threw at Snyder. 2 wins vs. Oak last year, avoid vs. Texas.

Dallas Braden (Sea vs. Snell) (@ ANA vs. Saunders)
Pitched great at home last year. Not a high K guy and needs to work the screwball and change to be effective.  I like him for both these starts and could be a decent fill-in later on.

Jake Westbrook ( @ Chw vs. Buehrle) (@ Det vs. Verlander)
Yikes faces a great hitting team and then one of the best starters in baseball. He is the anchor for the sinking vessel this year called the USS Wahoo. 2 years away from really doing anything.  Looks like a mid-season trade chip to a contender, probably the Dodgers if he can stay healthy. Avoid till you see if he returns to form.

John Lannan (Phil vs. Halladay) ( @Nym vs. Santana)
I like this kid, could win 12-14 games behind a sneaky good Nats lineup. Draws the top 2 pitchers in the NL east. Better stats at home, may fair better in NY. Keep an eye on his first start, but a win may come at the expense of giving up six.

Zach Duke (LA vs. Padilla) (@ Ari vs. Ed Jax)
I personally like guys who give you decisions — Duke had 33 starts with 27 decisions.  Will give you decent numbers for a bad team’s number one. Has two favorable matchups.  Owned the Dodgers last year. Great fill-in this week and could be a relevant mixed league option for favorable matchups.

Nick Blackburn ( @ Ana vs. Saunders) (@ Chw vs. Buehrle)
One of my favorites for week one adds. Awesome versus the Pale Hose last year. Going to have to adjust to being an outdoor pitcher all year. Stats won’t jump out at you, innings eater who is a matchup delight. An ERA hovering around 4; decent 12 win plateau for the year.

Kevin Millwood (@ TB vs. Shields) (Tor vs. Marcum)
Pitched great in a hitters’ park a year ago, but can he pitch in a hitters’ division is another question? Anything near a 4 ERA in the AL East is a good accomplishment. Will be fantasy worthy most weeks.

Vicente Padilla (@ Pitt vs. Duke) (@ Fla vs. Johnson)
Probably the number one add in most leagues based on his 2 start appeal for week 1. Pitched great for the Dodgers down the stretch.  Good offense leads to at least double digit wins. Gotta like both his starts against teams that are inferior to his. Not a stellar spring, but he is Vicente Padilla. So temper your expectations. Could be useful all year in a mix and matchup scenarios.

Carlos Pena – Right now, he couldn’t hit the dirt off a hoe (the farm tool, guys, c’mon).  Last year, 9 homers in April.  Year before, 6.  Pre-All-Star Break last year, 24 homers.  Yeah, he tends to start hot.

Adrian Gonzalez – 22 homers pre-ASB in 2008, 24 homers in 2009.  9 homers in April, 11 homers in May.  Think about this shizz for a second.  25 homers pre-ASB in 2010 then he’s traded to the Red Sox.  As Sgt. O’Malley would say, “Top of the morning to ya!”

Alfonso Soriano – Was solid in April (7 HRs, 4 steals, .284).  Has been better in the first half the last couple of years.  (Couple is a sneaky way of saying two, yet making it seem like it’s more than two.  Girlfriend, “How many dollars did you leave on that twenty dollar bill?”  You, “A couple.”  Later in the relationship:  You, “How many of my friends did you sleep with?” Girlfriend, “Four.”)

Ian Kinsler – When you skip the last month of every season, it only makes sense that you would be good in the first.  If Kinsler isn’t good in April, then you really have worries.

Raul Ibanez – There’s quite a few older players on this list.  Makes sense to me that an older player would start well only to trail off as the season starts to take its toll.

Justin Morneau – April’s been historically his 2nd best month after May.  This could change with the new stadium.

Bobby Abreu – By far his biggest steal month last year was April.  See Ibanez’s blurb or seven-eighths of an inch above.

Dexter Fowler – Not much of a sample size here, but last year he stole 9 bases in April.  Maybe he was trying to prove his value to the club.  Maybe this year he’ll need to do the same thing.

Torii Hunter – From 2007 to 2009, he’s been superior in the 1st half of the year.  Isn’t it weird how 2007 to 2009 is three years, but if you subtract 7 from 9 it’s two?  Yeah, maybe it’s just me.

Jorge Cantu – Was good for power last April.  Was not good in any other month.  That’s Was (Not Was) for you crazy 80′s kids.

Alexei Ramirez – He tends to start the season slow and he’s slated to bat ninth.  That’s a recipe for yawnstipation.

Ben Zobrist - Here’s what I said about Zobrist in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, “Zobrist’s homers don’t seem as fluky as they might appear.  He maintained a 17.5 HR/FB in 2009 and a 17.4 HR/FB in 2008.  Granted, that was a smaller sample size.  So he may look like David Eckstein, but the only thing they have in common is neither is Jewish though their names sound like they are.  Zobrist’s average seems out there; he looks closer to a .270 hitter.  He was a utility man coming into 2009 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he left 2010 back in that role.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Well, I could be wrong.  Zobrist will be hitting third for the Rays.  The doubts I had about Zobrist coming into this season are a bit assuaged by this lineup position.  I still don’t think Zobrist hitting third will last the whole year, but who goes from hitting third at the start of the year to the bench?  Oh, wait…

Casey Kotchman – Should hit third against righties.  Look at Casey making a play for fantasy value!  Unfortunately, he probably won’t play against lefties with Garko stealing ABs.  If you can somehow work a platoon of Kotchman into your fantasy lineup (I’m thinking mostly AL-Only leagues), Casey could be a steal.  Damn, every time I say I’m done with a player, they pull me back in.  So who’s hitting third vs. lefties? Glad you asked, random italicized voice.

Franklin Gutierrez – Will hit third vs. lefties.  Though The Big FraGu is slotted into the 7 hole vs. righties, hitting in front of the catcher and Jack Wilson.  On the bright side, this is contingent on the health of Bradley and Griffey Jr., who’s now older than Griffey Sr. from when you remember him.

Jose Bautista – Hitting leadoff.  That could also be the answer to, “Where did all of Aaron Hill’s RBIs go?”

Travis Snider – Currently stuck between John Buck and Alex Gonzalez.  That’s like the middle seat between Afa and Sika.

Gaby Sanchez – This could change, but right now he looks like he’s stuck in the eight hole.  Luckily, no one’s actually drafted him anywhere, except for me.  Yay me.

Shane Victorino – This move has been covered by me numerous times before, but, yeah, he’s in the 7 hole and Crapolanco is appropriately enough in the two hole.

Ian Desmond – Batting 2nd.  “Mr. Desmond, roses just arrived from you.”  “Who are they from?”  “Grey from Razzball.”  “Put them in the pile with the chocolates he sent yesterday.”

Marlon Byrd – The five hole.  He’s going to prove to be so borderline mixed league worthy, I have a feeling there will be at least 1700 comments this year asking me if they should drop (Insert Schmohawk) and pick up Byrd.

Orlando Cabrera – O-Cab’s in the two hole.  He’ll probably be more valuable than most middle infielders that are owned more than him, but what freakin’ fun is it owning Orlando Cabrera?

Jay Bruce – Until Rolen gets injured, Bruce is in the 6 hole.  Bruce could be this year’s Kemp in regards to a losing value from lineup position.

Julio Borbon – Will be hitting on top of a very potent lineup.  Borbon will have to really struggle to not have a huge year.

Elvis Andrus – He has not left the building, but he has parked in the nine hole.

Albert Callaspo – Hitting third.  For all of you crazy excited about Butler this year.  He’s hitting in this lineup:  DeJesus, Podsednik, Callaspo, Butler, Ankiel, Guillen, Betancourt, Kendall and Getz.  There’s about eight names there that wouldn’t make the starting lineup for any other team.  Fun times!

Magglio Ordonez – I really don’t think he’s ownable anywhere, but he’s set to bat third.  I could probably knock in 90 and score 90 in the three hole of a major league lineup.

Scott Sizemore – Will be allowed to ferment in the 8 hole as he proves his mettle for a month or two.  I have a feeling that I might be jumping off the Scott Sizemore bandwagon sooner vs. later.  We shall see.

Erick Aybar – Leading off for the Angels. Will get Runs, some steals and average, poor homers and RBIs.  His stats are like looking at Yunel’s in the mirror.  I will call you, lenuY.

Garrett Jones – Will bat third.  If you can have a fantasy lineup of mostly three hole hitters, you’re at least pointing in the right direction.

Colby Rasmus – Batting in front of Pujols.  A 2001 Bonds would get pitches to hit in front of Pujols.

Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler – Top of the Rockies order.  That’s rated 3 M for Mmm…

Everth Cabrera – At some point, I hope the Padres make the right decision and put EverCab at the top of the order, but I don’t think it’s happening out of the gate.

Pablo Sandoval – Hitting third behind Rowand and Renteria, which sounds like a VD clinic.

Nick Johnson – Hitting 2nd for the Yankees.  Johnson has a .400+ career OBP.  Last I checked the Yankees scored a lot of runs.  Anyone want any action on the over/under for the amount of times Johnson’s on second and gets held at 3rd on a single?  65? 70?

Nolan Reimold – I’m not even sure he’s in the lineup.  Trembley’s talking about starting Pie.  How dare you judge, Reimold!  Doode, your team’s going nowhere fast — play Reimold!  Sorry, this has nothing to do with this post.  But I thought some of you might not have heard and I didn’t want to do a whole post on this, though I did have the title, Effin’ Pie.

Alcides Escobar – Batting at the bottom of the lineup for right now, but Weeks is one aggressive burp away from the DL.

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon (+1) (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
2. Mariano Rivera (+1) (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain)
3. Jonathan Broxton (+1) (George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

4. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (Ryota Igareshi, Jenrry Mejia, Eddie Kunz)
5. Heath Bell (+1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (John Grabow, Esmailin Caridad)
7. Joakim Soria (+1) (Juan Cruz, Roman Colon, Kyle Farnsworth)
8. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Brandon League)
10. Brian Wilson (+1) (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
11. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
12. Rafael Soriano (+2) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell)
13. Billy Wagner (+2) (Takashi Saito, Kris Medlen)
14. Ryan Franklin (+4) (Jason Motte, Josh Kinney)
15. Mike Gonzalez (+7) (Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen, Scot Shields)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Darren O’Day, Chris Ray, Neftali Feliz)
18. Octavio Dotel (+1) (Brendan Donnelly, Joel Hanrahan)
19. Leo Nunez (+1) (Dan Meyer, Brian Sanches)
20. Trevor Hoffman (+3) (Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins)
21. Andrew Bailey (-4) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Zimmerman in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Bobby Jenks (+3) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
23. Chad Qualls (+4) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
24. Matt Capps (+2) (Brian Bruney, Tyler Clippard, Mike MacDougal)
25. Jason Frasor (+5) (Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs)
26. Chris Perez (+1) (Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Kerry Wood)
27. Jon Rauch/Matt Guerrier (-26) Jose Mijares, Francisco Liriano)
28. Franklin Morales (-15) (Manny Corpas, Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street)
29. Ryan Madson (-4) (Danys Baez, Brad Lidge)
30. Matt Lindstrom/Brandon Lyon (-1) (Sammy Gervacio, Ed Wade’s Toupee)

Alcides Escobar – Forty steals from Alcides wouldn’t be surprising.  He’s especially nice if Web Gems is a category in your league.

Colby Rasmus – In front of Pujols and Holliday might hinder Rasmus’ running game, but he should still be good for 15-20 homers and 10 to 15 steals.

Ian Stewart – Who is this Ian Stewart you talk of?  I have never heard of him.  Okay, no fooling, but the other night I had a dream that Ian Stewart had a complete collapse and was benched for Mora.  Granted, the girl from Seymore Butts and Thomas Jefferson were also in the dream and I was smoking opium… Nevertheless!  Stewart’s really not far away from sleeper sell material if you need to draft him in the top 100.  12th round or higher?  Much better.  (Side note, I was at a sushi restaurant the other day — Grey loves sushi as much as he loves referring to himself in third person.  Was sitting at the sushi bar when a smoking hot girl sits down next me.  It was the girl from Seymore Butts.  I didn’t recognize her.  You can giggle and say I’m lying.  You’d be surprised how unrecognizable a porn star is in clothes.  It’s like putting glasses on Clark Kent.  So we start talking and she reveals who she is and asks me if I’d like a few free DVDs.  She has them in her car, which is parked in the back.  I agree; you would’ve too.  Don’t judge.  She gives me 5 DVDs.  For those who aren’t hip to porn DVDs.  Their covers are graphic.  As we said goodbye, I realized I was parked in the front of the restaurant at a meter.  Yes, I had to walk back through the restaurant to get to my car.  I could’ve stuck the DVDs under my shirt, but I manned up, and walked very quickly.  Still, everyone saw what I was carrying.  The sushi chefs’ smiles were priceless.  A group of women dining there looked at me like I was everything wrong with men.  Finally, I get outside.  Only to find a female meter maid giving me a ticket.  I put the DVDs behind my back and rush up to her.  Please, I tell her, I’m leaving right now.  It’s already started.  Buh-buh-but!  Just then, a group of teenagers approach from behind me and start screaming, “Check out his videos!  He’s a pervert!”  Yeah, I took the parking ticket.)

Brandon Wood – The time appears now, unless Scioscia thinks the time is not now and he goes with The Figgy Duets (Maicer and Aybar).  If Wood penetrates the lineup (sticking with today’s post theme), he could be Ian Stewart 10 rounds later.

Jay Bruce – If Bruce does what he’s capable of, he will be overrated in 2011.

Dexter Fowler – Sorry, even sometimes I admire my own work and the post title under Fowler’s name is classic.  And I don’t even get Showtime!  Fowler is in the unenviable position of a crowded outfield.  If he stumbles out of the gate, I could see his time being reduced.

Carlos Gonzalez – I’ve been meaning to write an entire post on this, but Spring Training’s falling through the hourglass, so this post will have to do.  CarGo has to deal with a crowded outfield too.  Somehow CarGo’s risen way up draft sheets while Fowler’s stayed pretty reasonable.  A 10/30 season from Fowler seems as likely as a 20/20 season from CarGo.  No reason CarGo should be priced that much higher.  I have CarGo about 20 places higher in my rankings.  Yet, I hear people returning from a draft where Fowler isn’t drafted at all and CarGo is going in the first 100 picks.  Huh?

Chris Davis – I’m a sucker for low average, high power, some speed guys.  It’s the new three outcome player.

Julio Borbon – Yeah, the Rockies and the Rangers have some upside candidates.

Nolan Reimold – Heal, Achilles’ heel.  Please.

Garrett Jones – Everyone seems to think Garrett Jones can’t build on his 2009.  And I’m kinda in that group.  But still, the Pirates will play him and he’s not exactly being drafted that high.

David Price – I gotta be honest, I’ve seen Price in drafts and I’ve had a hard time pulling the trigger.  I just picture myself curled up in a ball crying while watching him pitch against the Yankees or Red Sox.

Jonathan Sanchez – I’ve had no problem drafting this doode.

Carlos Quentin – If he can stay healthy, he’ll be overrated next year.  *fingers crossed*

Denard Span -  Yeah, he’s pretty yawnstipating, but there’s a place for that on some teams. (Damn, that was the worst sales pitch since David Price’s blurb.)

Geovany Soto – When he showed up camp forty pounds lighter, Soto said, “I used to be a little sluggish — like ‘I want to take a nap.’  Now I feel great and I just want to put myself in the best position to help the club.”  Sounds like a line from an afterschool special about how marijuana is a gateway drug.

Elvis Andrus – I’ve almost convinced myself that Andrus is going to be as valuable this year as Jose Reyes circa 2008.  Almost.  Like in a game of horseshoes.  A game of horseshoes!

Corey Hart – Leading the charge with slugging at .976.  Obviously, no night games and wearing sunglasses is a recipe for success.

Mike Jacobs – He’s even hitting lefties this spring as he racked up 20 RBIs and 7 homers.

Travis Ishikawa – Five homers already and a slugging percentage of .649.  Wow, huh?  Seriously, reread the word before “huh.”  No, that’s a comma.  Before that.

Jed Lowrie – He’ll easily end the spring as Boston’s best hitter with a line of .462/500/.872.  Can anyone say MVP?

These are the top 4 sluggers for 2009 Spring Training.  That’s right.  Not 2010.  A real beauty pageant of names, right?  Seriously, please stop looking at spring stats.  Corey Hart didn’t come within 450 points of that slugging percentage for one single month of last year as he went on to his worst season in the majors.  Lowrie hit 2 homers and batted .147 in 2009.  If you need me to tell you what the other two did, you might need Matthew Berry’s help.  Spring stats mean nothing.  You should only be looking at who’s healthy, who’s winning position battles and who’s winning rotation spots.  The rest is meaningless.

Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

Jair Jurrjens – -1.74 difference.  And that was before he went for an MRI on his shoulder.  P.W. Botha isn’t the only one getting The Gas Face.

J.A. Happ – -1.59.  Can Happ avoid the sophomore slump?  Sure, if Ryan Howard gives up cheesesteaks, learns to fly and knocks every ball down that is hit off of Happ.

Matt Cain – -1.32.  He should’ve regressed the entire year last year, but he Keyser Soze’d his way through it.  Unlike the above two names, Cain’s above a 7 K/9, so I have some love for him.

Randy Wells – -1.19.  Okay, Wells was also lucky last year.  Not great, but he does keep his walks down.  Kinda like my overweight aunt.

Bronson Arroyo – -1.16.  Eh, he shouldn’t be owned until July anyway.

Johan Santana – -1.00.  But he was injured.  But what if he’s not fully healed?  And the falling K-rate?  I don’t know… Damn, random italicized voice, you’re supposed to be for comic relief, not for making actual points.  My bad.

Randy Wolf – -0.93.  I don’t think anyone, including Wolf, really thought he was for real last year.

Edwin Jackson – -0.78.  Don’t you just love it when pitchers I’m not excited about end up on the list of pitchers to avoid?  Yeah, don’t wanna blow your mind right here, but it was kinda planned that way.

John Danks – -0.77.  Last year, I liked Danks and disliked Floyd.  This year, the opposite.  Danks for the memories.  Danks, but no Danks.  Danks for nothing.  You pick the bad wordplay.

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80′s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney – The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake – Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland – Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

10 TEAM — In a 10 team league, you should aim for around 80 points. That’s 3rd place, which is noted for each category below.

RUNS

Average — 1088
High — 1204
Low — 972
3rd Place — 1152

HOME RUNS

Average — 262
High — 309
Low — 215
3rd Place — 288

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 1054
High — 1173
Low — 935
3rd Place — 1120

STEALS

Average — 166
High — 230
Low — 103
3rd Place — 202

AVERAGE

Average — .283
High — .295
Low — .270
3rd Place — .290

WINS

Average — 80
High — 97
Low — 63
3rd Place — 90

SAVES

Average — 75
High — 156
Low — 44
3rd Place — 131

ERA

Average — 3.83
High — 3.23
Low — 4.42
3rd Place — 3.47

WHIP

Average — 1.28
High — 1.21
Low — 1.34
3rd Place — 1.24

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1099
High — 1285
Low — 913
3rd Place — 1202

14 TEAM — In a 14 team league, you’re in contention if you have around 110 points.  Or 4th place, which is noted in the categories below.

RUNS

Average — 1030
High — 1140
Low — 919
4th Place — 1089

HOME RUNS

Average — 242
High — 282
Low — 202
4th Place — 264

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 990
High — 1102
Low — 878
4th Place — 1050

STEALS

Average — 143
High — 195
Low — 92
4th Place — 171

AVERAGE

Average — .279
High — .291
Low — .267
4th Place — .286

WINS

Average — 77
High — 93
Low — 61
4th Place — 86

SAVES

Average — 54
High — 117
Low — 33
4th Place — 98

ERA

Average — 3.95
High — 3.34
Low — 4.56
4th Place — 3.60

WHIP

Average — 1.30
High — 1.24
Low — 1.37
4th Place — 1.27

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1024
High — 1197
Low — 851
4th Place — 1117

16 TEAM — In a 16 team league, you’re in contention if you have around 120 points.  Or 5th place, which is noted in the categories below.

RUNS

Average — 993
High — 1099
Low — 887
5th Place — 1042

HOME RUNS

Average — 230
High — 268
Low — 192
5th Place — 248

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 954
High — 1062
Low — 846
5th Place — 1004

STEALS

Average — 135
High — 184
Low — 87
5th Place — 158

AVERAGE

Average — .279
High — .291
Low — .267
5th Place — .286

WINS

Average — 77
High — 93
Low — 61
5th Place — 86

SAVES

Average — 54
High — 117
Low — 33
5th Place — 98

ERA

Average — 3.95
High — 3.34
Low — 4.56
5th Place — 3.60

WHIP

Average — 1.31
High — 1.25
Low — 1.38
5th Place — 1.28

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1013
High — 1184
Low — 842
5th Place — 1093

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose Reyes.  If he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

- A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
- Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
- Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
- Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
- Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
- Aramis – Anytime after #65
- M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
- Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)

Jose Reyes – As you probably know by now, Reyes is going to miss 2 to 8 weeks with a wonky thyroid.  He’ll likely begin the year on the 15-day DL.  Which is not the same as being on the DL for the entire year.  Hopefully.  I said this about the whole Reyes thyroid issue when it happened.  I’ve also updated my top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, top 100 and top 300 rankings.  Right now, I have Berkman in a Cousteau-deep league and Reyes in a league with no bench.  If you need me, I’ll be on the roof of my building waiting for someone to push me.  Since this isn’t a leg issue, I wouldn’t turn down Reyes if he fell to me in the 4th round.

Carlos Beltran – Some people wondered if the Mets could keep their injury news streak alive in 2010.  So far, so good, huh?  Beltran says he should be ready to start rehab games in April, which would put him on a timetable to return to the Mets towards the end of April.  He’s not a safe pick, but I’d start considering him around the 100th overall pick.  Doubt his steals return to their previous glory, but he could be the three-hole hitter for the majority of the season and get 20+ homers.

Brandon Lyon – Faced live hitters today for the fist time.  I’m assuming those live hitters were happy.  Lyon should be ready in time for the start of the season.  I still think he’s the guy the Astros turn to to close out most games.  Lindstrom should still be owned for those vulturing and handcuffing.

Gaby Sanchez – Inside track on the 1st base job.  He’s my backup for Berkman.  Wish us well.

Brian Roberts – Taking pain meds… Aw, Sickie Roberts.  I haven’t owned Roberts in many years because I thought he was overrated, but I was starting to come around on him.  Now that he’s still dealing with a herniated disc, maybe I’ll go back to my original stance.  Hey, his herniated disc is making me boomerang! (<–Australian humor)

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on DL and that’s fine cause then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as Chipper nurses his hammy.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

Nick Massett – Guy has the goods: everything you look for in RP. To name a few: decent control, great K’s, low BA against. My breakout guy for holds.

Todd Coffey – Not a huge K threat, decent peripherals, but when it comes down to it, what’s better than a barrel chested dude sprinting in from the pen?

LaTroy Hawkins – Personally, I’m not a huge fan of this guy. Two capital letters in your first name is just dumb: it’s like cake with no icing. Will be decent for sleeper ‘pen in the “land of hops and ales.”

Sergio Romo -  Flame thrower, awesome K/9.  Great deep league help for peripheral help. Has future closer potential. Will pitch behind Wilson and in front of…

Jeremy Affeldt – Dual winner of the Arthur Rhodes Trophy last year — minuscule numbers. Should be top 5 in holds again this year.

Pete Moylan -  Another year removed from TJ surgery. Pitched great in a reduced role last year. Expect his walk rate to fall.

Takashi Saito – Pitched great in AL last year. Should repeat nicely in front of Wags.  Great K, ERA, and WHIP potential.

Pedro Feliciano – Sounds like a singer and pitches like a lefty.  Great ratios and a ton of appearances.  Great “one and done” guy for the oft-injured Mets.  Good source of snipe wins.

Ryoti Igarashi – Great numbers in Japan. Will fool guys with early delivery. Reminds me a lot of Saito.  Owns his own “The Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Jason Motte – Blew his chance to close last year. Great stuff — definitely the closer moving forward. The Lou is always top 5 for holds as an organization.   Go bet it — $2 bucks on Kryptonite.

Trevor Miller – Guy is a hundred and 12 years old, and gets a 2 yr deal.  I want to come back as a lefty reliever. Tiny numbers. Another “LaRussa” go-to guy.

Mike Adams – Great guy for almost all formats.  Tiny numbers add up to big help in ERA and WHIP. Awesome across the board — another ‘pen you can rely on.

Luke Gregerson – Snuck up on everyone last year. Great K potential again (93k’s in 75 inn). Yeah, I had to look that up to. Bud’s go-to righty in front of “The Heath Bar.”

George Sherrill – Torre rides success out of the bullpen — he lives by it. Not a lot of K’s, and tends to get sketchy with men on.  Great sleeper in deeper formats for 20 holds/ 10 save season.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Awesome down the stretch, great K’s and low ERA. It’s why we all drafted him in the beginning of the year only to drop him and then watch someone else pick him up. Graduate of “Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Ramon Troncoso – Wore down by mid-year, which is what Torre does to young RP.  Needs to work on the walks.  Win “sniper” if I ever have seen one — think Aceves 2009.

Brian Bruney – Always gets the hype wherever he goes.  Has the goods, but needs to keep his wits when pitching. Great stuff — everything required to be a success in the setup for the Senators, uh, Nationals.

Manny Corpas – Another guy that can’t find his role. Closes out games horribly, but sets up great.  Needs to stay healthy and the Rocks will benefit.

Juan Gutierrez – Will be closing by A.S break — bank on it. Great K potential. Should be another hold/save contributor.  My sleeper pick late in drafts for cheap saves.

Arthur Rhodes – You can’t have a MR discussion without the Godfather. He blows up like Apollonia in the playoffs, but Cincy isn’t invited to those.

Others to consider: John Grabow, Aaron Heilman, Dan Meyer, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom, Ryan Madson and Danys Baez.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Matt Capps and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $2 and the bidding’s just gone to $3, go to $4 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Dotel, Capps or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2^nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball.  (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.)  For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.”  So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups.  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ’2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one….

#1 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  32%

Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks.  His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)

So why is he #1 on the list?  He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard.  Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders.  Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.

If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season.  Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.

#2 – Ross Ohlendorf

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  24%

Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep  leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher.  While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009.  Translation:  Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.

#3 – Kevin Correia

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  30%

Petco : ERA is equal to:

a)      Baco : Salad

b)      Balco : HRs

c)      Maaco: Brakes

d)     Yoko : Oh no Beatles!

e)     All of the above

The correct answer is E.  Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre.   12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43^rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.

The problem?  While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors.  Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls).  You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common?  We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….

#4– Joba Chamberlain

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  22%

I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.

As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway.   But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.

Pass on him as a starter.  Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.

#5 – Randy Wells

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  27%

Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009.  Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.

While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.

But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average).  He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).

#6 – Adam Wainwright

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches:  No.
Slider %: 19%

#7 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero.  Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?

Case in point:  Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year.  His 3,614 pitchers were 3rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632).  Sabathia was #4 at 3,587.  Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury).   He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors.  Who was 2nd in the most breaking pitchers?  None other than Chris Carpenter.

There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners).   For Wainwright, he had the 5th most effective slider and 2nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8th and 17th respectively).  His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5th most effective).

Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers?  Tough to say.  But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

#8 – Jason Hammel

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  14.9%

The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP.  In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).

On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches.  And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider).  So he’s not too much ‘safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.

#9 – Jeff Niemann

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high.  Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel.  He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP).  While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid.  And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.

His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.

This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals.  How’s that for double talk (talk)?    But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him.  I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.

#10 – Gavin Floyd

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The first returnee from last year!  Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.

And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).

I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd:  1) You win Round #1 and  2) Good luck winning Round #2.

I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.

#11 – Ryan Dempster

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  34%

The second returnee from last year!  Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief.  Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008.  That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.

I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%).  It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).

So be careful before you Dempster dive….

#12 – Jorge de la Rosa

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  15%

George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky.  De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.

While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much.  He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.

He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.

But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only.  If he comes cheap, grab him.  Otherwise, pass.

#13 – Max Scherzer

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.

Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.

But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher.  Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year.  Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.

I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.

#14 – Ricky Romero

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  13%

Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13).  A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).

My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards.  Follow that instinct.

#15 – Joel Pineiro

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  12%

Talk about an efficient pitcher.  Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170).  No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!

So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency.  And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling.  In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.

I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him.  If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.

#16 – Edwin Jackson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  27%

The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce.  Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.

To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious.  To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.  In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).

Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders.  His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1.  Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.

The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.

#17 – Scott Feldman

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  2%

Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins.  17 wins?!  AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!

Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates.  So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.

The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd.  44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve.  He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else.  That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9).  The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%).  Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH.  Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH.  Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness.  Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.

Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.

#18 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever.  How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP?  You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%).  If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.

All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me.  He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%).  Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year.   But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.

#19 – Tommy Hanson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  24%

Mmm…flop?  No, definitely no.  Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher.  I still want him on at least one of my teams.  The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.

The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s.  24% sliders and another 14% curveballs.  He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.

I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.

#20 – Josh Johnson

MLB Pitches 2008-2009:  1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches:  No
Slider %:  25%

Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion).  He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH).  He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.

But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be.  I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood.  Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.

Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Alex Gordon – Broke his thumb.  Will now be held back and repeating his Sophomore slump for the third year.  I dropped him out my top 300 for fantasy baseball.  (BTW, Nathan was removed and Rauch and Guerrier were added.  Also, there were some other small adjustments.)  I wouldn’t touch Gordon outside of a 15 team league or deeper that had at least 2 DL spots.  At what point do Royals fans say, “Forget the next George Brett.  We’ll take the next Joe Randa!”

Russell Martin – Gained 20 pounds to regain some semblance of power (harder infield grounders!) and pulled his right groin.  And here we thought Alyssa Milano was in charge of pulling Dodger groins?  Rookie A.J. Ellis is an OBP machine (.437 in last two years in AAA) with less power than Martin (0 in 283 ABs last year).  Oh, and he’ll be the oldest rookie (29 in April) on the team since Hiroki Kuroda.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum.  No Halladay.  No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I have bedsheets with Lincecum on them… Hmm… That sounds wrong.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Longoria or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Rivera, Broxton… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Josh Willingham last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Clint Barmes on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.  (Note:  This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.  If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Scott Sizemore?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Slowey?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Tim Hudson or Andy Pettitte?  I’m taking Hudson.  Billingsley or Garza?  I’m going Bills.  Slowey or Price?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Slowey.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.

Elvis Andrus – He’s slated to start the season in the nine hole.  I’ll bet my two hole he moves up the order by midseason.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Speaking of two holes, Asdrubal ended up on this list of shortstops to target rather than a 2nd baseman because he fits into my ideer of what I want at short more than 2nd.  It’s the more speed, less power thing.

Alcides Escobar – I’ve compared him to Andrus in a past post — one letter off! The nice thing about Alcides is his defense is so good that he should have a longer leash than some other rookies like, oh, I don’t know, Mat Gamel.

Everth Cabrera – Okay, you know that crazy, roid rage British chef that does Dinner: Impossible?  You are him in your draft and your mission is to try to find steals late at the middle infielder position and make Chicken Parm for twenty-five hundred people.  When you’re taking a donut in power from an outfield or utility spot from someone like Juan Pierre, it hurts you.  A donut from MI, you can handle.  Mmm… donut.

As we wait for the first prototype of our Razzball helmet that allows us to help call the plays for our readers, here are some tips that will allow you to call audibles like Peyton Manning. (Look slig me, Doc, I’m makin’ football analogies!)

I’m in the middle of a draft and I’m somewhat to completely set at a position BUT I can’t believe this hitter is still available.  Should I draft him and 1) Fill CI, MI, or UTIL earlier in the draft than expected  and/or 2) Draft him to set up a pre-season trade?

Generally no on #1.  Always “No” on #2.

I’ll start with the answer to #2.  NEVER draft thinking you’ll be able to trade anyone for close to face value.  Two simple reasons:  1) Everyone is in wanderlust with their team after the draft and generally overvalue most players on their roster and 2) If they valued this player nearly as much as you, then he wouldn’t have dropped as far in the draft!

For #1, I’d only do this if the player is clearly the best hitter on the board with slight consideration for position scarcity.  If you drafted Pujols in the 1st round and inexplicably Adrian Gonzalez still available in the 4th round, then sure.  But I’m pretty confident that the 2B, SS, or 3B you have your eyes on isn’t by far the best hitter out there.  I’m supremely confident if you’re eying a Catcher.  But even if they are slightly better than a player at another position, I’d draft the other guy.  Why?  Better roster flexibility throughout the draft – you ALWAYS want the best values and filling up one position and being scarce in another prevents this – and if the league is undervaluing this position early (based on your valuation), then they probably will undervalue it late in the draft too.

Same as above but it’s a pitcher.

You’re not going to get good trade value from a starting pitcher and if you’ve already got a couple of top SPs, that next one will have less incremental value for you.  You obviously value pitchers more than your league mates and will have no problem drafting 5-6 SPs you like spread out throughout the draft that’ll better maximize value and draft flexibility.

Relievers are the exception to the rule.  They are the only players that have fair trade value given their scarcity.  Nothing wrong with stocking up on saves in April/May and then trading a closer when a good deal can be had.   But I can’t see any reason to draft more than 2 closers in the first 10 rounds – even if a top closer is still hanging around by the 9th/10th.

How do I factor upside into my draft choices?

Sprinkle it in throughout the draft and take more risks later in the draft.

For those who read this blog religiously (which must suck for our Jewish readership as our content must be even more nonsensical when read right to left), you may know that Grey has a perpetual boner (RIP btw) for upside while I’m a bit more conservative.  Here’s why….

You have to realize that ‘upside’ is factored into legitimate projections (CHONE, ZiPs, PECOTA, Marcel) and that the chances of performing above these projections is about the same as performing below these projections.  So ‘upside’ is a sunny word for risk and drafting on ‘upside’ (vs. projected results which represents their ‘average’ statistical outcome) generally means you are reaching for that player.

It’s best to balance ‘upside’ players with more dependable players so you’re getting the most value out of every draft pick and minimizing risk.  I remember seeing a 2009 AL expert draft last year where someone drafted Liriano, David Price, and Chamberlain as 3 of his top 4 starters.  That was nothing more than pitcher roulette in my eyes and they obviously didn’t hit their number.

But towards the end of the draft, upside is great because the ‘dependable’ players aren’t much better than the players available on the free agent wire.  So you might as well take a shot on someone sexy in the hopes they overdeliver knowing you can fall back on a dependable player via free agency.

You play it too safe, Rudy.  Flexibility.  Manage risk.   Blech.  Screw your mutual fund approach. I want to play the stock market.  Any recommendations?

While I think maximizing draft value is the best chance of winning a league, I admire someone who’s willing to roll the dice.  Gamble is my last name.

If you want to gamble by taking a lot of young ‘upside’ picks, go ahead.  It could work but I highly doubt it.

If you think you’re great at finding pitching bargains, go right ahead and wait until the 10th round or so to draft pitchers.  Just realize that there will definitely be at least 1-2 drafters in your league already deploying that strategy which makes it tougher to win with this gambit (because of the increased competition for early hitters/late pitchers).

My gambit of choice would be to draft 2 pitchers in the 3rd-5th rounds – hopefully snagging 2 of the top 5 or 6 starters before an inevitable starting pitching run occurs.  In the next 5 rounds, get 2 premium closers and another SP.  Get at least two more closers before the end of the draft and some pitchers with solid Wins and K numbers.  The intent is to finish near the top in all 5 pitching categories.

While hitters are generally valued higher than pitchers, it is tougher to find hitter values but they are there.  I’d punt Catcher since you’re paying a premium for position scarcity and you want to focus on raw numbers to balance your pitcher-heavy draft.  I’d punt both 2B and SS until at least the double-digit rounds as there are much better values to be had later in the draft.   Throughout the draft, concentrate on everyday hitters with a likely shot of hitting 1st through 5th in the lineup – it doesn’t matter if they are on a bad team.  The reason for focusing on lineup position is that they are solid bets for 160+ Runs and RBIs.   Since power-speed players generally come at premiums,  mix and match hitters who come undervalued because they are particularly weak in a dimension – e.g., Adam Dunn (average) and Michael Bourn (power).  As the season goes on, trade closers to improve offensive numbers.

Will this strategy work?  Yeah, some of the time.  I wouldn’t recommend it over a more balanced draft but if it was a sure thing, they wouldn’t call it gambling…