We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball. The 2011 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen. That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen. 3rd base gets the gas face. In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late. Worked out fine. In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late. Didn’t work out fine. In 2011, I really want a top 3rd baseman. I ain’t mucking around. As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:
5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball for Youkilis’s projections. (Note: He might not have 3rd base eligibility when the season starts, but he’ll get it soon enough.)
6. Mark Reynolds – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Casey McGehee. I call this tier, “Where the hell are all the top 3rd basemen?” If someone sees the top 20 3rd basemen, send them in my direction. I went over the Reynolds fantasy move to The Big ‘More. The gist of that post is he won’t be as bad as he was in 2010 or as good in 2009. You go read it yourself, I only counted three tipos. 2011 Projections: 80/35/95/.235/12
7. Adrian Beltre – I went over my Beltre fantasy when he moved to the Lone Star state. To be completely honest with you, before he signed with the Rangers, he was in the tier of players I’m avoiding. His move bumped him up to a more attractive tier. I’m sure his mother is proud. 2011 Projections: 80/24/95/.285/7
8. Michael Young – I’m worried that the bottom on Young’s power is going to drop out. His HR/FB% last year came down from its high of 2009, but it can still come down further. Then you throw in a guy who’s aging and still refuses to take a walk. I think his career decline is going to come fast and hard. Like a 14 homer, 3 steal season is around the corner. 2011 Projections: 85/17/80/.280/5
9. Casey McGehee – He’s more or less Pablo Sandoval with a bit more power and less average. And that is the first time anyone’s ever been more Pablo Sandoval. Usually they’re less. Personally, I want power over average so I’d lean towards McGehee. Plus, his average shouldn’t be terrible without some bad luck. 2011 Projections: 75/24/90/.280
10. Pedro Alvarez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Aramis. I call this tier, “I’m going all in on one of these guys if I don’t get an elite 3rd baseman because shizz gets drastic after these two.” I already went over my Pedro Alvarez fantasy. If I miss out on the top 3rd basemen, Alvarez is the guy I want in every league. He is Julio Upsidiero for 2011. He needs a fantasy sleeper post to really beat into your heads how much you need him. (Yes, I’ve even thought about how scary it’s going to be being pot-committed to watching the Pirates.) 2011 Projections: 70/27/85/.260/3
11. Aramis Ramirez – I only like Aramis because I’m all out of Drakkar. See what I did there?! It’s cologne humor! I like Aramis this year because he seems to be going pretty cheaply in drafts. Is he suddenly going to hit 35+ homers again? Sure, and just because you replaced your Mom’s name on your cellphone with Natalie Portman it means it’s the star of Black Swan calling you three times a day. 2011 Projections: 75/25/90/.280
12. Jose Bautista – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Sandoval. I call this tier, “No, thanks.” Anyone who is drafting Bautista is out of their flippin’ mind. There, I said it. I don’t even know how anyone’s drafting a guy who went from 13 homers in 113 games in 2009 to 54 homers in 161 games. Doesn’t that just ring a bit weird for you drafters of Bautista? His HR/FB% for his career is 13.8%. Last year, it was 21.7%. That’s absurd. If you remove his best average month of July, he hit .242 in 471 other at-bats. That was in his best season! There’s still no warning signs? How about the fact that once pitchers realized he was using a corked bat with Sammy Sosa’s signature on it, he hit .224 in September and October? Still not enough? Eh, go back and stick your head in the sand. 2011 Projections: 70/25/80/.240/5
13. Pablo Sandoval – You know who Pablo Sandoval looks like? No, not Rerun. He looks like a young Lyle Overbay. I obviously mean, his stats look like a young Overbay. High teen power, good average. It’s a’ight, I suppose, but if he struggles out of the gate the Giants won’t extend his leash anywhere near how long they did last year. 2011 Projections: 70/18/80/.305/3
14. Placido Polanco – This tier goes from here until Rolen. I call this tier, “There are so many more 3rd basemen that I don’t want compared to ones that I do want.” Went over Polanco’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.
15. Chase Headley – I actually recommended him last year. Well, they’re not all world wide web gems. I obviously forgot he plays his home games at Petco. In 295 ABs at home, 3 homers and a .237 average. Last year Luis Polonia hit better in the Sexual Predator League at Rikers. 2011 Projections: 70/15/85/.255/7
17. Scott Rolen – Post-All-Star break he had 188 ABs and 3 homers. That’s someone you should draft. Maybe you can platoon him in and out with Troy Glaus. 2011 Projections: 55/15/70/.275
18. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “You have nothing here but upside. Meaning: you may get nothing.” I know, Ian Stewart buckled under the pressure of being nicknamed, Mini Mini Donkey. It was a lot of brays to live up to. So why do I still believe in him? Because he really didn’t buckle under the pressure, he just didn’t get enough ABs. With an everyday job, he’s a 25-30 homer, 5 steals and a .260ish average. Of course, you might end up drafting Nadir Bupkis if Wigginton steals a lot of playing time from him. Stewart will definitely see his share of the bench vs. lefties. In this bear market of third basemen, it’s worth the flier on Stewart in the endgame. 2011 Projections: 65/22/75/.260/5
19. Chris Johnson – Is it bad when two of the bigger upside picks come from the Pirates and Astros? Yes, yes it is. Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon. He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever. He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking. (That’s what she said!) But he is in his prime and has upside. It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall. 2011 Projections: 65/20/80/.260/3 (<–optimistic but whatevs)
20. Danny Valencia – I see your upside, Danny Valencia, and I’m not that impressed. Listen, you’re real deep into a position by this point. If you draft Valencia, there’s a good chance you’re going to drop him by April 10th for a guy who starts out hot. If Valencia starts off hot, then maybe you can flip him for a better piece. If this doesn’t sound like the greatest upside pick in the world, it probably isn’t. Best case scenario, he hits 17 homers with a good average. It’s a’ight. 2011 Projections: 65/15/75/.300
After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but here’s two that stand out:
Mike Moustakas – I already went over my Moustakas fantasy. It involves some PG-13 nudity. 2011 Projections: 50/17/75/.280
David Freese – I’d actually rank Freese above Chris Johnson overall if he’s healthy. I only slotted him down here to highlight him. If he shows up to camp healthy, he could surprise with some power. In 464 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, he hit 26 homers. In 2009, he hit a homer every 20 at-bats. He’s probably not going to blow your mind with his stats, but he’s being drafted crazy late, if at all, and could surprise. 2011 Projections: 70/20/80/.300/3
So it’s not really the 2nd half mark in the fantasy baseball season, but it’s the All-Star Break so what else are we going to talk about? The newest Real World? Putting a guy who is a recovering drug addict in the Real World house in New Orleans is completely irresponsible. And, for that reason, I think The Real World might’ve got its mojo back after an off season in D.C. Now if only the recovering addict were Miguel Cabrera. Oh, well. As with all of the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt. If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the outfielder for the 2nd baseman. Also, things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Albert Pujols number one on the top 100 list for the second half of 2010 and he could get injured tomorrow. Then he wouldn’t be number one. See how that works. This list is a road map for where I think guys are valued. It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my mustache. This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up today. So while Aramis Ramirez did not have the greatest first half, he will appear on this list because I think he can play in the 2nd half. The projections are not their combined 1st half and 2nd half numbers; they are their projections for the 2nd half of 2010. (BTW, the RCL league standings and Fantasy Razzball standings were updated.) Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half of 2010:
1. Albert Pujols – Pujols, a God amongst Schumakers. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/15/55/.320/6
2. Hanley Ramirez – Ah, how nice it would be to own Hanley and not have to worry about the shortstop schmohawk behind door number three. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/12/45/.315/16
3. Miguel Cabrera – Miggy for the AL MVP… Only because Omar Infante’s in the NL. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/16/60/.325
4. Evan Longoria – David Wright’s currently outperforming him by a smidge (<--technical sabermetric term), but Longoria has a bigger power upside. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/17/55/.285/8
5. David Wright – Because of the steals, he’s been more valuable than a ton of guys you thought were having better seasons. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. I’m in your head! Hey, left brain, you look like a pillow, I rest my head now. Thank you. Now I’m sleeping in your head, what are you going to do? 2010 2nd half projections: 45/13/55/.290/10
6. Joey Votto – I feel vindicated for writing his name all over my Trapper Keeper. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/16/55/.300/4
7. Robinson Cano – Notoriously a 2nd half hitter and this year he’s been purdy good in the 1st half. Put it together and you’ll have an overrated 2nd baseman next year. For now, yes you Cano. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/14/50/.330/3
8. Ryan Braun – Big fan of the Hebrew Hammer. He’s one of those players that can go into a two month zone. Obviously this ranking has nothing to do with his 1st half. I still believe. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/16/50/.315/9
9. Alex Rodriguez – In my crystal ball, I see a crazy hot streak for A-Rod. Or maybe I’m seeing a crazy, frosted streak in his hair. Hmm… 2010 2nd half projections: 50/16/60/.295/5
10. Matt Kemp – Torre might’ve put the slight brakes on Kemp’s out of control running game, but 15/12 is still within his sights for the 2nd half. (BTW, 15/12 was Wade Boggs’ vision. He could see through walls to skanky redheads and fried chicken. Why that’s not on his Hall of Fame plaque no one knows.) 2010 2nd half projections: 50/15/45/.285/12
11. Ryan Howard – Could be in an 1-for-75 slump and I’d still rank him higher than he deserves. Simply because he’s one of the few guys capable of a 15 homer month. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/22/60/.265
12. Prince Fielder – See Howard, Ryan or 1/8th of an inch above. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/18/50/.275
13. Justin Upton – Another guy that is being outperformed currently. He just needs to get hot for two to three weeks and he can get these 2nd half numbers. In talent I trust. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/16/45/.270/10
14. Josh Hamilton – I credit his good season with the role model on the dugout steps, Ron Washington. Well, it’s just that Hamilton’s healthy. Yeah, that’s probably it. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/15/50/.300/4
15. Roy Halladay – There’s pitchers who have had a better 1st half, but Halladay’s the 1st pitcher of the top 100 because he’s the safest. Game in and game out — eight innings, good ERA, Ks, WHIP and keeps his team in the game. 2010 2nd half projections: 9-4/2.60/1.00/100
16. Mark Teixeira – Drink up your PABST. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/15/55/.310
17. Matt Holliday – I’m almost definitely ranking Holliday somewhere in the 4th round next year because he just can’t get his act together in the first two months of the season, but we’re not in the 1st half anymore, so there’s that. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/14/45/.320/5
18. Adrian Gonzalez – Bummer that the Padres are competing and A-Gon looks destined to stay in Petco. Guess I’ll have to save the A-Gone post for another day. Gonzalez hasn’t had one extended hot streak and he still has 18 homers. Last year, he hit 16 homers in the 2nd half. I think he marginally beats that. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/18/55/.270
19. Ryan Zimmerman – Last year, Zimmerman hit 19 homers in the 2nd half. In the 2nd half of the last three years, he’s hit for a better average. Zimmerman at 19th overall is probably indicative of where he’s going to be ranked next year. I’ll just need to concur with January Grey. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/17/45/.285
20. Carl Crawford – Do I think he slows down in the 2nd half? Who am I, Ms. Cleo? Actually, yes I am and I do think he slows down. Outside of 2007, he’s consistently slowed down in the 2nd half. When forced to choose between a guy that slows down in the 2nd half and one that does not, I’m going for the latter. Be happy his knees are still good for the first few months of the season. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/8/40/.305/17
21. Carlos Gonzalez – This is admittedly higher than I thought I’d rank him, but if Kemp’s 15/10 and CarGo’s 13/10, it makes sense (in my head, at least). 2010 2nd half projections: 50/13/50/.280/10
22. CC Sabathia – It takes CC and the Pitching Factory a few months to really find his groove. If you were to argue Wainwright, Lee, Lincecum or Lester deserves to above CC, I hear ya. They’re ranked this way because CC’s been the model of consistency for a long time. You want safety in your SPs. 2010 2nd half projections: 10-2/3.00/1.10/95
23. Adam Wainwright – I regret not owning him this year. Could end up winning the Cy Young if voters get the first three months of Ubaldo out of their head. 2010 2nd half projections: 8-2/2.80/1.00/100
25. Tim Lincecum – Feels weird to say a 26-year-old is getting grandfathered into his ranking, but Lincecum is being ranked higher than he might deserve because of his past past, not his most recent past. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-2/2.80/1.15/110
26. Jon Lester – If Lester were in the NL West… Oh well, we can dream. 2010 2nd half projections: 9-3/3.05/1.12/100
27. Jose Reyes – This ranking is optimistic because I want to believe he’s going to be healthy in the 2nd half. Hey, at least I’m being honest in my dishonesty. 2010 2nd half projections: 55/5/25/.280/20
28. Ubaldo Jimenez – The last month of Ubaldo has me ranking him a tad under the other big guns. It’s not that low, save your conniption. 2010 2nd half projections: 8-4/3.00/1.10/90
29. Brandon Phillips – If you were to put a 20/20 guarantee on any other player at 2nd base, you’d be all over it. Not sure why, but people never seem to give him his props. Maybe cause his initials are BP. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/10/40/.265/10
30. Jimmy Rollins – Really struggled with whether to rank Reyes or Rollins first. I ended up going with Reyes because, while he is fighting an injury, Rollins is older and is beginning to show signs of slowing down. Oh, and if Rollins doesn’t turn it on in this 2nd half, he’s probably tumbling to around the 6th or 7th rounds next year. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/10/35/.280/15
31. Vladimir Guerrero – One of the hardest guys to rank. His park and lineup really is conducive to him having a monster year if he stays healthy. That “if” is the size of King Kong Bundy. Maybe Ron Washington can rub some of that white stuff on Vlad’s knee to numb the pain. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/15/55/.300/2
32. Kevin Youkilis – Apropos of nothing, Youk and Yao Ming should open a fusion restaurant, The Greek God of Woks. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/13/45/.290/2
33. Justin Morneau – He’s lower than some of the other big 1st base bats because of his injury risk. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/15/45/.290
34. Alex Rios – I kinda wanted to lower him further, but I’m fighting my CarGo ranking. If I put one 13/10 guy at 21, a 10/10 guy can’t get lowered that much. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/10/35/.265/10
35. Jayson Werth – Just as I held tight to Ibanez this year through thin and thinner, I’m holding Werth. You want hitters in solid lineups and hitter-friendly parks. It just makes your job easier. They get rinky dink RBIs and Runs that other players don’t get. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/14/50/.270/5
36. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate is my “This Guy Is Carl Crawford Without The Name Attached For Next Year’s Draft.” 2010 2nd half projections: 40/7/35/.285/20
37. Adam Dunn – Member when Big Donkey would steal a few bases a year too? How on earth did he ever do that? He’s 7 feet tall and 540 pounds. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/20/50/.255
38. Elvis Andrus – He will probably be above Reyes and Rollins in next year’s rankings. And that’s me quoting future me! 2010 2nd half projections: 50/2/30/.280/17
39. Josh Johnson – You might notice that pitchers are higher in the 2nd half rankings than they were in the preseason. I did this because by the 2nd half of the season we have a pretty good idea of which pitchers are pitching well. They still have risk, but a bit less than in the preseason. With that said, Johnson is lower than others because he still is an injury risk. 2010 2nd half projections: 6-3/2.95/1.05/100
40. Nelson Cruz – The short answer is, “Yes, the Rangers offense is redonkulous.” 2010 2nd half projections: 35/14/50/.275/7
41. Krispie Young – It’s a bit comical for me to rank him this high. But what can I say, I’m a sucker for Krispie. Plus, when you consider Rios and CarGo are ranked above him and he hasn’t done anything less than them. In fact, he’s been better. Make the airplane noise with your fork and chew on that. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/15/45/.250/14
42. Shane Victorino – He went 14/17 in the first half to CarGo’s 15/12. Where am I supposed to rank Victorino? He’s already probably too low as it is. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/7/40/.270/15
43. Clayton Kershaw – Imma let you finish, but if Kershaw could cut his walk rate, he could be one of the greatest of all-time. OF ALL-TIME! 2010 2nd half projections: 7-3/3.35/1.20/100
44. Felix Hernandez – I love F-Her long time and I will continue to make him my preseason Cy Young pick every year until he wins one, but now that they’re breaking up the March 2010 Mariners Dynasty he’s going to struggle for any sort of run support. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-3/3.10/1.10/100
45. Ian Kinsler - This ranking could be a sneak peek at how far Kinsler’s falling for 2011 if he doesn’t get his shizz together. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/10/40/.275/10
46. Brett Gardner – Is he that different than Crawford? Rhetorical! 2010 2nd half projections: 50/4/30/.280/20
47. Jered Weaver – No, I’m not confident he keeps his ERA and WHIP where they currently are, but his Ks are a thing of beauty right now. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-5/3.50/1.12/115
48. Mark Reynolds – Having him this high is a bit silly for a guy that strikes out as much as him, but you know what? Mark Reynolds makes people do silly things. Just the other day, I mailed a pizza and ate my telephone bill. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/18/50/.230/5
49. Mariano Rivera – Me, myself and I conferred for a while on where to start the closer run. I thought to myself if I were in desperate need of saves who would I be willing t0 trade for a top closer? Weaver or Reynolds for Mo seemed fair to me. To be continued in Broxton’s blurb. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-1/1.75/0.75/30, 18 Saves
50. Jonathan Broxton – This is not to say I would trade Reynolds or Weaver for a closer. Push came to shove, I’d trade someone like Garza for Dotel. Continued in Marmol’s blurb. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-2/2.25/1.05/45, 17 Saves
51. Carlos Marmol – Hmm… No, I’ve said all I wanted to on that subject. 2010 2nd half projections: 2-2/2.50/1.20/60, 15 Saves
52. Justin Verlander – Capable of better 2nd half numbers than I’m giving him but he doesn’t seem like he can avoid the One Inning Blow Up Blues. 2010 2nd half projections: 6-4/3.50/1.17/105
53. Troy Tulowitzki - One of the riskier players to buy into for the 2nd half. Will he have a setback? Not rhetorical and I don’t have the answer. I’m currently trying to buy him for pennies on the dollar. I figure what the heyski. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/8/35/.270/10
54. Derek Jeter – This ranking has as much to do with the pee-poor state of fantasy shortstops as it does about Jeter. In fairness to him — because God knows no one is ever fair to Jeter — he was solid in last year’s 2nd half. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/6/30/.320/10
55. Andre Ethier – I’m not a big fan of Ethier. He always seems to get overrated. His numbers are about the same as the latest hot outfielder grab off waivers. For examples, see Boesch, Pagan, Huff, Willingham, etc. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/12/50/.300/2
56. Ben Zobrist – One of my bigger regrets of the preseason was not pushing people harder away from Zobrist because I didn’t think his power was for real. Luckily, he has made up for his lack of power with steals. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/8/40/.280/15
57. Rickie Weeks – As always, this ranking for Weeks is completely contingent on his health. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/12/35/.260/7
58. Carlos Quentin – In the first half, CQ was as ownable as the Roman Coppola CQ DVD. Here’s to Quentin carrying his solid last few weeks into the 2nd half and not getting injured. And not going back to striking out every third at-bat. And raising his average. And maybe stealing a few bases. Okay, so there’s some caveats. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/16/45/.270/2
59.Jacoby Ellsbury – I think he’ll be back within two weeks of the break. He’s a factory outlet version of Crawford. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/4/40/.280/17
60. Joe Mauer – I can’t imagine any scenario where I’d actually trade for Mauer but this seems about right for his value. Same goes for McCann, but, wait, I haven’t gotten to him yet. 2010 2nd half projections: 45/9/40/.320
61. Brian McCann – I feel like I just read something about him. Oh, yeah! Right above. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/10/45/.280
62. Johan Santana – Member the days Johan was the top pitcher in the game? Yeah, I don’t either. Stupid mind-erasing drugs. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-3/3.00/1.20/70
63. Corey Hart – Sticking with the theme of guys who won’t be as good in the 1st half, the Brewers are trying to sell high. I think you should follow their lead. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/10/45/.260/4
64. Aramis Ramirez – Yes, I’m ranking him higher than I did in the preseason. In the preseason, I told you to avoid him, but now you should be able to get him for the price of an Adam Everett jersey. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/40/.300
65. Carlos Beltran – I think I’m giving Beltran too much credit with my projections for the 2nd half. He comes with injury risk, might not be ready to hit major league pitching and who knows if he’ll be able to steal any bases at all. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/45/.270/4
66. David Price – To be honest, I wanted to put him lower in the rankings, but his 1st half gave me pause. Wouldn’t be surprised if guys who aren’t even ranked (like Floyd) are actually better in the 2nd half. 2010 2nd half projections: 6-4/3.55/1.20/85
67. Paul Konerko – And another past sell guy. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/11/45/.260
68. Jason Kubel – Like Mel Gibson, you need to put aside your prejudices. These rankings are not about what people have done, it’s looking forward. Kubel’s been a 2nd half hitter the last few years and especially last year. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/45/.280
69. Curtis Granderson - As I learned in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, sometimes you have to admit your mistakes. In the preseason, I was so jazzed about the prospects of Grandy hitting in The Stadium They Built Adjacent To The Stadium Ruth Built that I lose sight that Grandy is a platoon player. He can’t hit lefties. At all. Though he is very valuable vs. righties (over three years, 65 homers and .301 vs righties; 10 homers and .202 vs. lefties). 2010 2nd half projections: 25/10/35/.240/7
70. Torii Hunter – I have the feeling Hunter follows his recent pattern of doing a lot less in the 2nd half. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/12/50/.280/5
71. Zach Greinke – He could make love to your eyes with his Ks while his bullpen will never return your calls. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-5/3.25/1.15/90
72. Mat Latos – Had a much better 1st half than this ranking shows, but as my last Buy/Sell pointed out, I expect his value to go down. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-2/3.60/1.10/75
73. B.J. Upton – Really has no business being this high, but when I tried to find someone who was capable of a 10/20 2nd half, I came up with Upton and Rickey Henderson, but Rickey’s retired for now. 2010 2nd half projections: 25/6/30/.255/15
74. Dustin Pedroia – I don’t think Pedroia’s necessarily going to throw Papi and Youuuuuuk on his back again this year with his newly-mended foot. Though I would not bet against him returning as soon as possible. Never underestimate the desire of the Sparky Anklebiter. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/8/25/.295/6
75. Ichiro Suzuki – If you’re wondering why Ichiro is this low, welcome to Razzball! A good place to begin is this post. Then the last one. Then the one before. Keep going onto you reach 2007. BTW, imagine instead of writing this on a blog, I had written all of this in longhand in a lined notebook. You’d have me committed. 2010 2nd half projections: 25/3/20/.330/15
76. Hunter Pence – Probably will get hot for a month and finish with a 24/17 line. Very solid, but he’s at 12/10 right now. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/30/.275/7
77. Dan Uggla – Dunn’s hitting .288 and Uggla’s hitting .285. In other news, water is dry. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/14/35/.255/3
78. Stephen Strasburg – He only has about 70 more innings or 10 starts left. I.e., he’ll be shut down the beginning of September. If you’re trading him, I’d try to get a guy much higher in these rankings because of the hype attached to the House of Strasburg. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-2/3.00/1.00/65
79. Michael Young – He’s the type of player you have on your team all year and forget about. Hit here, run there, RBI here, homer there. He never gets so hot you stand on your office desk and scream, “I own Michael Young. Now who what’s some?!” and he never gets so cold where you decide to search out Michael Young’s home address and pay him a visit. *knock, knock* Is Michael home? Okay, I’ll wait. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/12/45/.315/2
80. Adrian Beltre – Whether he was hitting for average or power, you could always count on Beltre for steals. This year he’s batting .330 with 13 homers and the steals have disappeared. Always an interesting deal he makes with the Contract Year Devil. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/10/45/.280/3
81. Adam LaRoche – Imagine if I were to put LaRoche this high in the overall rankings in the preseason, then I’d be writing for CBS Fantasy. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/14/45/.280
82. Pablo Sandoval – For most of the season, he’s looked totally confused like his impersonator, Fung Poo Kanda. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt with this ranking since he had a solid 2nd half last year. I still don’t fully trust him and he’s still a sell. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/10/40/.300/3
83. Rafael Furcal – With the way he’s been hitting lately, it’s hard to work in his nickname, 0-Furcal. But I still manage, huh? 2010 2nd half projections: 45/5/30/.315/12
84. Adam Jones – There will probably be some pedantic post from December Grey about how you need to trust your guys to meet their preseason projections with Adam Jones as the example. December Grey, “Hey, I’m not pedantic!” 2010 2nd half projections: 30/12/40/.285/5
85. Yovani Gallardo – Would’ve been much higher if he were completely healthy. I’ll put him down for 12 post-All-Star break starts and that’s being optimistic. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-4/3.25/1.25/80
86. Billy Butler - This ranking is assuming you don’t have a Largest Cup Size category. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/12/35/.315
87. Lance Berkman – If it wasn’t clear theses are rankings for only the 2nd half, here ya go. Relevant of nothing, if Berkman and Fred Savage had a kid, it would look like the host of Man vs. Food. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/14/40/.295/5
88. Martin Prado – Berkman, Prado and Huff? Belch. What am I doing here? I’ve lost my mojo. If you’re in a midseason league, ignore the last few picks. 2010 2nd half projections: 50/7/35/.310/3
89. Aubrey Huff – Right after I ranked Huff here, I jumped out the window. I’m now in a full body cast typing this with my nose. Achoo! 2010 2nd half projections: 40/14/50/.280/2
90. Jay Bruce - On the bright side, he’s capable of better numbers than he gave in the 1st half. The flip side, he couldn’t be more yawnstipating than the 1st half. 2010 2nd half projections: 40/14/45/.260/4
91. Chase Utley – He uses the same spit shine as Pedroia, but unlike Pedroia he’s dealing with a hand injury. 2010 2nd half projections: 20/7/25/.280/5
92. Manny Ramirez – Without his female hormone pills, he’s looked okay… If a bit emotional. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/12/40/.315
93. Francisco Liriano – Definitely didn’t go into the break with a string of solid starts. Actually, went in with the worst start in 2010. Have I mentioned his K-rate is beautiful? Okay, moving on. 2010 2nd half projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/95
94. Carlos Pena – I don’t think Uggla and Dunn are gonna let Pena into their carpool anymore. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/15/45/.210
95. Cole Hamels – In the last three years, his post-All-Star break ERA is 3.23. 2010 2nd half projections: 7-4/3.30/1.28/90
96. Victor Martinez - Honestly, if his name were Mictor Vartinez, he wouldn’t have been ranked at all. And not simply because there’s no such player. 2010 2nd half projections: 25/8/35/.285
97. Ricky Nolasco – In his last five starts, 38:6 K:BB. 2010 2nd half projections: 4-4/3.60/1.20/90
98. Colby Rasmus – Member when I said he’s due for a correction? Was about a month ago. Here’s the link for a refresher. Since then, he’s hit 3 homers and batted .250. Um, okay. 2010 2nd half projections: 35/6/30/.270/7
99. Adam Lind – His 1st half went like this, he’ll get better, he has to get better, will he get better?, I don’t think he’ll get better, he’s definitely not getting better but I’ll hold him just because he might surprise me, I can’t believe he’s not surprising me and getting better, I hate Adam Lind’s guts and, finally, I’m dropping him for Travis Snider. Then he started getting better. 2010 2nd half projections: 30/15/40/.255 <--optimistic, but whatevs
100. Dexter Fowler – I could’ve put Bourn or Denard Dawg here, but who wants to read about them? You want to read about how they could’ve been put here but weren’t. Now that’s exciting! 2010 2nd half projections: 35/4/25/.280/15
101. Whoever Wins You The Championship – It’s now or never, people! Make your move or lose.
We’ll get to the team, as they say on the the Little Chocolatiers, shortly. First, this was my least favorite draft I’ve done this year and maybe in the last two years. For the first time in a while, I’m not sure if this team has what it takes to win. So, because of that, it’ll probably end up being my best team. As William Goldman says, nobody knows anything. I can look at a team and tell if it should struggle or should excel. In the end, shoulds turn to unicorns and guys like Cliff Lee win a Cy Young, though not this year. So should this team I just drafted do well? Forecast: cloudy. Could? Sure. All this second guessing might just come from owning Figgins for the first time in four or five years. Anyway, here’s my 2010 fantasy baseball team:
Matt Kemp and Mark Teixiera and My Own $30+ Rule Squashed
I hardly ever break $30 in an auction. People spend like crazy in the beginning and you end up with incredible values later. Well, there goes that. Honestly, I think it’s because I’m in too many leagues this year, I just had to mix it up. Usually when you spend over $30, your team ends up unbalanced. Speaking of unbalanced…
Damn, Dawg. This Team is Pitchy
Sometime after I drafted Shin-Soo Choo, I started to think to myself. We’re about 100 picks in, maybe I should get a pitcher. About 20 picks later. I found myself thinking I really should get a pitcher. Then I grabbed Dotel and I thought cool, but maybe I might like a starter. About 40 picks after that I found myself battling for starters with one other team that needed pitching. After I lost out on Bills and Hamels, I got my first starter, Jered Weaver. I think I then vomited and grabbed Garza. Then I sat in my own vomit and drafted Lackey. Then I just started throwing SPs on my team in hopes if I grabbed 8 — that’s right, 8! — maybe I’d have 6 good ones. There is a low max IP limit (1250) so I might be able to sneak by with 5 SPs and good closers. Not that I have good closers. Cust kayin’.
Chone Figgins and Brian McCann and a Teaspoon of WTF
Let me set the scene. Victor Martinez just went for $17. Brian McCann gets nominated and he’s sitting there at $13. Clock starts ticking and I refuse to let him go for $13, so I raise it one dollar assuming someone will take him to $15. Well, I just bought myself a $14 McCann. This is actually one of my favorite picks of this draft. $14 for the guy I believe can be the number one catcher. Like I’ve always maintained. I like McCann, just don’t like drafting a catcher in the 5th round. Well, there are no rounds here. Now, for the Figgy scrolls. Robinson Cano went for $24 a few picks before and, at 2nd base, I have Figgins right after him. So when someone bid $19, I went to $20. I thought someone would go to $21 and I’d let him go, but at $20 and at 2nd base, I gave Figgy one more chance.
I Punted MI. Like, as in, I Didn’t Even Draft One
That’s right. No MI. Take that establishment! Okay, technically, I didn’t punt it. Sean-Rod didn’t have 2nd base eligibility when I did this draft, so rather than draft from the Valbuenas and the Izturii of the world, I grabbed two MRs at the end hoping to get vulture saves. Worked for Morales, not so much for Guerrier. Guerrier’s now gone for The Duke of Duchscherer. Right now, I’m rocking Kelly Johnson at MI and this has been one of my best performing teams so far. Go figure.
Stealing is like borrowing until it becomes permanent. I don’t steal; it’s immoral, reprehensible and I’m really out of shape so I’d probably get caught. The fact of the matter is that these guys aren’t for everyone. They shouldn’t be, but they will give you the all coveted stat: steals. These players should only be considered if you are in need of steals after your draft, 12 teams or deeper. In H2H leagues, these players are especially important if you’re trying beat an opponent and only need a few quick “pick me up” steals.
Chris Getz – Yeah, this list is not exciting. This KC middle infielder is horrible. I have shown him love in 16-20 team leagues. With Aviles’ iffy elbow, he may be only shining light not named Yuniesky.
Kaz Matsui - On the down side of career, was there ever an up? Still has legs, which may get you 18-22 steals. With an OPS of 625, which is what Pujols slugs.
Eugenio Velez – Needs to find a spot somewhere. Maybe he sent a poison Edible Arrangement™ to Fred Lewis. 400 abs might give you 20 snatches. I like that word for SB’s.
Luis Castillo – I know what you’re saying, he is horrible, and you’re right. Sorta. Can help with steals while not demolishing BA.
Cliff Pennington – Sounds like an insurance salesman. Has the gig at short for the ‘tics. Prolly the best guy on this list so far as potential.
Coco Crisp – 450 ABs easy and a 10/20 season. It ain’t glamorous, but these steal guys rarely are.
Michael Brantley – Could actually get drafted in a 12 team. I like this kid, reminds me of The Big FraGu last year.
Eric Young – May start season on bench or in AAA, which is the place for really, really bad drinkers. Awesome speed potential. Barmes needs to fall down some stairs for him to have a shot.
Brendan Ryan – Seriously, Julio Lugo. Good potential for a MI spot league if you get a stud early. Could do worse, the Cliff Pennington of the NL.
Austin Jackson – May struggle early. Given 400 abs could go 8/15, with a ton of runs leading off.
Will Venable – Quietly will hit 6th for the Friars. Decent pop last year should carry over, who doesn’t like the son of a Max. 10/15 very attainable.
On his way to The Stadium That Jane Fonda Didn’t Receive In The Divorce Settlement, Jason Heyward ordered his chariot driver to the side of the road so he could wrestle a wildebeest. Suicide mission or pregame ritual? Doesn’t matter. With nary a scuff to his gladiator sandals, he escaped unharmed. With the wildebeest head shipped off to PETA, Heyward arrived at the game, went 2-for-5 and hit a home run. No doubt, he is the greatest player since RBI Baseball’s Darrell Evans. After the game, Heyward said, “What game? I was commissioned by Al Gore to form cloud cover.” Consider Heyward a 80/20/80/.280/10 guy. If someone offers you better than that, take it. If you’re in a league where someone gives you a top 50 player for him, you’re in a sucker league. And you better beat those suckers. Remember, Jordan Schafer hit a home run on Opening Day last year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Nate McLouth – Hitting eighth. He did hit .010 in the preseason, but I think Cox comes around on him. Could be a nice buy low situation. Then again, I’m not a huge fan of McLousy, so I need to stop touting him.
Carlos Zambrano – 1 1/3 IP, 8 ER. In all fairness, he gave up five bloop singles… And two bloop 450 foot homers.
Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 5 ER and the Win. I don’t like Lowe this year; this start did nothing to change my mind.
Shaun Marcum – Had a no-hitter through 6 and a third until Nelson Cruz said I am more than an All-Star replacement. Marcum’s one of those pitchers I’d be all over if he played in the NL. In Toronto, s’okay.
Jason Frasor – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew the save. He has guys behind him that can fill-in, but the Jays are playing for nothing. So it’s six of one, half dozen of another for how long Frasor’s closer leash will be. I’m not grabbing Downs or Gregg yet, but one more blown save and that could change.
Adam Lind – HR yesterday. One down, 34 more to go.
Travis Snider – 0-for-4, 3 Ks. There will be quite a few of these type of days. He can still hit plenty of homers too. The bugaboo is he’s batting 9th.
Mike Napoli – Didn’t start yesterday. Napoli is why the Ron Popeil method of setting and forgetting your catcher was invented. Napoli doesn’t play every game, it’s how Scioscia do.
Carlos Gomez – 4-for-5, steal and a homer. Gomez hit 2nd yesterday. I mentioned in the comments that he could be this year’s Emilio Bonifacio. What I mean is a guy that steals 4 bases in one week, everyone adds him then by the third week of the season people wish he’d die by falling in front of a marching band that tramples him. Doesn’t mean I wouldn’t add him early, just don’t drop anyone you’ll regret.
Carlos Gonzalez – It’s an 8-for-10 day for CarGoes. Gonzalez was also thrown out by about a foot trying to steal. Good to see him running, be nicer to see him getting better jumps.
Seth Smith – 0-for-4, 3 strikeouts. Fowler owners and lispers rejoice.
Huston Street – Received good news that there wasn’t nothing seriously wrong with his shoulder. Except that he can’t pitch.
Dan Haren – 7 IP, 1 ER. I’m guessing it’s before the All-Star Break. Hey, look, it is!
Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday. Reynolds isn’t ready to relinquish the Mini-Donkey title just yet. Mini-Donkeys are stubborn.
Ian Stewart – HR yesterday. In a land of men and Mini-Donkeys, there was one Mini-Donkey who was smaller than all others, but his heart and home runs were bigger. His name was Ian Stewart and he’s Mini-Mini Donkey.
Mark Kotsay – Announcers were talking him up as a professional hitter that “adds flexibility.” I don’t know but his wife makes me stiff.
Mike Jacobs – 0-for-4 as he hit cleanup. I get the whole righty-lefty thing, but Mike Jacobs can barely cleanup his locker.
David Wright – HR yesterday. After last year, his owners will take any power signs, but this homer was a fortunate, well-placed blast that was just around the pole. Or as they call it in New York, The Pesci Pole.
Jose Reyes – Stole two bases in his rehab game. It won’t be long now, ya’ll.
Casey Kotchman – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs. As expected, he hit third against a righty. For those that aren’t hip to handiness, there’s a lot more righties. If you can find someone to get into your lineup when the Mariners face lefties, it could be worth it.
Garrett Jones – 2 HRs yesterday. As our fantasy football contributor, Mark, said yesterday, “Robot Jones just fulfilled one of his 3 laws.”
Delmon Young – 2-for-4, HR yesterday. Deep leagues obviously need to react quicker than other leagues. Who knows, Young is still, well, young at 24 and he was once a big time prospect.
Roy Halladay – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. What’s a bigger joke? Halladay vs. the Nats or Lannan vs. the Phils.
Placido Polanco – 3-for-5, 6 RBIs, grand slam. That was a month’s worth of Feliz. Spanish pun intended.
Ian Desmond – 0-for-2 as he hit 8th. Willie Harris went 0-for-4 from the two hole. While Desmond needs to hit to stay on the field, Willie Harris should not be batting 2nd.
Chris Carpenter – 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks. Rudy and I both agree that we wouldn’t own Carpenter this year.
Albert Pujols – 4-for-5, 2 HRs. Poo-Holes is spitting fire.
Colby Rasmus – 2-for-4, HR. Really wish I got him in a league this year. I have a feeling it’s going to be his coming out party. Maybe he’ll announce it in The Advocate.
Drew Stubbs – 2-for-2, didn’t get the start, but was brought in to face the lefty Reyes. If Dusty’s only playing Stubbs vs. lefties, it kills his value. Worse, I think all the Reds’ outfielders — aside from Bruce — are looking at 350-400 ABs. That’s Gomes, Dickerson and Stubbs.
Joey Votto – 3-for-5, HR yesterday. It was a good day, Ice Cube.
Zach Greinke – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks. Over/under for Greinke’s no decisions this year? 16? 17 maybe?
Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks. Same thing every year for Verlander. April early showers, bring May flowers.
Cameron Maybin – 0-for-4, 3 Ks. It’s no embarrassment to be overmatched by Johan, even Johan 2.0, but Maybin looked completely lost. My bigger problem with Maybin is he only has 20 steal speed. He’s not a burner.
Gaby Sanchez – 2-for-4 with a double. Yeah, not that exciting but I own him, so you’re gonna have to occasionally hear about him.
Ken Griffey Jr. – You see this Dick’s Sporting Goods commercial with Griffey running around the store? Is this commercial from 1993? Griffey strained his hamstring somewhere in aisle #5.
Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 4 baserunners. After Buehrle made one of the best plays by a pitcher ever, The Hawk, the White Sox announcer, said Buehrle’s had a storybook career. Can’t wait for the movie. The Mark Buehrle Story starring Michael Rappaport.
Carlos Quentin – No wonder he’s always getting hurt, I watched him get hit by pitches twice that he should’ve easily avoided. He has the reaction time of Robert De Niro in Awakenings.
