1) Carlos Delgado seemed done in 2007, then he wasn’t done in 2008. In 2009, done or not done and why?

I bet, like in 2008, he’s some place in the middle again. He’s not getting younger, so to expect an improvement from last season would be unrealistic. He and the team will tell you he had mechanical and mental hitches that hurt him in the start of the season, it wasn’t physical. Frankly, I prefer it be physical, because, if healthy, he’d be all set. However, what’s to say he doesn’t slide back in to those mechanical mistakes again.

2) John Maine battled some injuries in 2008, can we expect a bounce back in 2009 to a sub-4 ERA?

He’s struggling in spring training, but he says he is working on different things, from different pitches to adjustments in his delivery.

Maine is very hard on himself, and he goes in to mental funks, that translate in rough stretches during the season. He knows he needs to stop thinking, and just let the ball rip, like he was doing at the start of last season.

The key for him will be whether he can focus, stop overthinking, and create a better out pitch to keep batters from fouling off so many pitches, which often leads him to 90–pitch counts in the fourth inning.

3) Not sure if you play fantasy baseball, but even if you don’t you should be able to answer this. Reyes or Wright?

Funny you should ask, because I was in this exact position on Sunday during my league’s draft. We have an extensive prospects and keeper system, that has allowed me to carry Ryan Zimmerman since he was in Double-A. I am using him, finally, as my starting third baseman – in a head-to-head league with 16 teams, and 16 roster spots. So, because I do not have a starting shortstop, I selected Reyes with second overall pick in the draft, ahead of Wright and Hanley Ramirez. Wright was taken with the next pick.

4) How do you think Citi-Field will play? Pitcher’s park? Hitter’s park? Why?

I have no idea, and neither does any one else. I asked Jeff Wilpon this very question, when I talked with him during spring training, and he said there have been no indications yet, and nobody will really know until the team starts playing in April – and even then it will likely change as the weather warms up, the wind patterns change and it gets more humid in the summer. I believe, however, they want it to be a pitcher’s park, consistent with the team’s history.

5) Luis Castillo is projected for 490 ABs and 0 HRs. That would be a sub-Herculean achievement. Think he can pull it off?

My readers at MetsBlog.com like to call him Slappy McSingleton, but, like Clark Kent in a phone booth, turning in to Superman, he becomes Slappy McHomerton at least once or twice per season when batting from the right side of the plate – I expect the same in 2009.

I am far more concerned with his OBP than his home run totals, though.

1) Baseball Prospectus estimates that Kenji Johjima – he of the plummeting 3-year AVG/OBP/SLG trend which fell to an atrocious .227/.277/.332 in 2008 – will get 60% of the catching time with Jeff Clement getting 2/3 of his playing time at DH.  How DO you see this playing out and how SHOULD this play out?

I think Clement’s going to end up getting about 65% of the playing time behind the plate – he’ll play against most RHP.  If his knee starts hurting, they’ll shift him to DH and stick Griffey in LF occasionally.  My guess is that Johjima gets less than 300 PA this year.

As for how it should shake out, Clement should given the chance once and for all to prove whether he can catch or not.  The best line-up the M’s can field has Clement behind the plate, Griffey at DH, and Endy Chavez in LF, so hopefully that’s the one they end up with on most days.

2) Ichiro is turning 35 and has been the picture of consistency for his 8 Mariner years – 157+ games, 31+ SB, and .300+ AVG.  Any reason to suspect he may slow down or break down in 2009?

Ichiro is a machine when it comes to stretching and keeping his body in shape.  There’s a reason he never gets hurt – he keeps his body in top physical shape, and he really has the physical skills of a 24-year-old.  His speed hasn’t declined at all, and there’s no evidence of him losing any of his past abilities.  Ichiro’s one of the most sure things in baseball.

3)  Whom do you think has the better year – F-Her or Jean-Luc Bedard?  Do you think Brendan Morrow clears 140 IP?

I think I’m just going to reject the F-Her nickname entirely.  King Felix will have a better year than Bedard.  And no, I don’t think Morrow will go over 140 IP – the organization will be careful with him, and with guys like Rowland-Smith, Olson, and Vargas kicking around, they have some decent arms who could be used to let him skip some starts from time to time.

4) Whom do you think will emerge as the closer?  Mark Lowe?  Miguel Batista? David Aardsma? Mike Schooler?  (note: asked before the Chad Cordero signing)

Mark Lowe is the favorite, mainly because his change-up gives him a weapon against LHPs.  Batista, Tyler Walker, and Roy Corcoran are all more suited to being RH specialists.  Aardsma has the stuff if his command takes a big leap forward, but that’s probably a long shot.  So, Lowe’s the best bet for saves, but I wouldn’t count on anyone getting more than 20.

5) Which Mariners’ set of moves begged for the most inevitable outcome:

a) 2005′s monster contracts for Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre = disappointments in proportion to their height

Beltre hasn’t been a disappointment at all.  He’s a star, and probably the most underrated player in the game right now.  If anything, he’s underpaid.

b) 2008′s signings of Erik Bedard + Carlos Silva = sub-VORP pitching due to Bedard’s injuries and Silva’s health

Silva’s health wasn’t a big problem last year – the M’s defense was just a disaster, and putting a pitch to contact starter in front of that group of defenders was just not going to work.

(note: ‘Silva’s health’ was a poorly phrased joke.  I was inferring that he provided sub-VORP pitching because of his lack of injuries – i.e., he’s a below average pitcher)

c) 2009′s signings of Don Wakamatsu (coach) + Ken Griffey Jr. = severe hamstring injury during pre-game calisthenics

If the M’s can limit Griffey to mostly DH’ing, he should be able to stay relatively healthy.

1) I see Wandy Rodriguez for 2009 and I think underrated breakout.  Most people read that and think, “Grey’s drinking again.”  What do you think?

Wandy is the proverbial axis on which the Astros’ 2009 season spins. Fortunately, I agree with you that he’s going to have a breakout-type season. Over the course of his career, Wandy’s ERA has dropped, while his strikeout and walk numbers have improved as well. That’s pretty good indication that the ERA improvements aren’t due to luck, but rather improved skill. Last season, Rodriguez was tremendous in 14 starts at home, compiling an ERA of 2.99, with a K:BB rate of nearly 4.00. Transferring his home success to road starts would be a great way to begin his rise to the upper echelons of starting pitchers. As always, health is issue number one with Wandy. The projectors don’t have much confidence in Rodriguez’ ability to pitch the entire season (none see him making 30 starts). If he is somehow able to defy the experts, his innings should be among the most effective in the NL.

2) A) J.R. Towles will fulfill the promise of 2008 in 2009.  B) No one can fill the void left by Brad Ausmus.  A or B and why?

Humberto Quintero appears to be the front runner to begin the season as the starting catcher, and…

J.R. Towles is in a battle with Lou Palmisano to make the major league roster. It appears that Towles’ future lies somewhere between his 2007 September, and his disastrous 2008 season (obviously).  I think the thing that a lot of people forget is that Towles pretty much skipped AAA when he was anointed the starting catcher prior to 2008.  He had a fairly strong showing at AAA Round Rock (.304/.370/.500) so I think he’s still got in him to fulfill some of that promise.  Whether he gets an opportunity to do that will depend largely on how Palmisano performs, because Assistant GM Bobby Heck drafted him when Heck was with the Brewers and will likely be loath to send him back if he’s not on the 25 man roster.

3) Usually, I throw in a question about prospects, but my depth charts seem to have a missing space where the Astros impact rookies for 2009 is supposed to be.  Is there anyone who is not on people’s radars that has a chance to break camp and make an impact with the club in 2009?

The Astros are in an unenviable position. Our aging roster is matched by a farm system that is nearly barren of impact talent at highest levels of the minor leagues. The minor leaguer who seems to have the best opportunity to break camp as a major leaguer is middle infielder Edwin Maysonet, a 27 year old middle infield prospect (if you can be a prospect at 27?). This article details the competition between Maysonet and another prospect, Tommy Manzella, to be Miguel Tejada’s backup at shortstop. Neither has extremely impressive statistics, but such is the plight of the 2009 Astros. Drew Sutton (2B/SS), Chris Johnson (3B) and Bud Norris (RP) are three more prospects to keep an eye on this season. Johnson smacked a home run in his spring debut, while Norris and Sutton were studly in the Arizona Fall League. Sutton slugged .611 in 108 ABs this past fall, while Norris’ 1.89 ERA in 20 IP (anchored by a 2.74 K:BB and a 9.45 K/9) was the cherry on top of a stellar AA season.

4) Can Tejada show a glimpse of his steroids glory in 2009?

Will Miguel Tejada perform like the perennial MVP candidate that he was in the early 2000s? No. Will Miguel Tejada perform like an above average shortstop, with better defensive range than people give him credit for? Yes. Miggy still swings at too many bad balls, and doesn’t have near the power he once did, but he should improve upon a SLG% of .415 in 2008. I think that this will be especially true if the “Does Miguel Tejada need more rest?” conundrum is ameliorated by giving him a few more off days. We looked into that a little bit this off season, and rest did seem to indicate better SLG. Couple that with a BA of above .280, and Tejada is still a top ten shortstop.

5) For so many years, the Astros had the Killer B’s with Biggio and Bagwell.  Now they have Berkman and Oswalt, which is the Killer B.O. or the Killer O.B.  Neither connotes excitement.  Give me an acronym that best expresses your 2009 Astros.

A
A
R
P

Yes, that AARP.

1) 2008 was a tale of two halves for Freddy Sanchez.  The 1st half was Dirty Sanchez (.226/.251/.304), the 2nd half was Steady Freddy (.346/.378/.483).  Which Freddy Sanchez can we expect for 2009?

Freddy has been a heck of an enigma ever since winning the batting title in 2006. Even then I don’t think he was super-valuable fantasy asset due to a lack of patience and power, but since then it’s been all downhill. The Bucs are expecting Steady Freddy in ’09 because his shoulder bothered him for a good chunk of last year and it’s all healed up now, but even when he’s hitting, he’s not a great 2B fantasy option.

2) Nate McLouth went from battling for the starting CF position and leadoff spot to being the #3 hitter for much of the 2nd half.  Can McLouth put together another 100/25/100/.270/15 year?

Nate started out on fire last year and dropped off a little bit in the second half, and I think some of that had to do with the losing of Bay and Nady behind him in the lineup. He’s not a #3 hitter (and I think manager John Russell has said he prefers Nate leading off), but it’s absolutely reasonable to think he’ll produce similar numbers this year.

3) What Pittsburgh player puts the irate in Pirate for you?

That would have been an easy one a year ago, but now that Ronny Paulino is gone, I’ll say Ian Snell because he’s “irate” the most often. Basically every time Snell loses a game or the Pirates go on a losing streak (often) you can bank on him having some quote in the paper the next day along the lines of “losing sucks, I hate it.” I’d be upset too if I burned a finger on my pitching hand while cooking chicken.

4) Pittsburgh had a few pleasant surprises for fantasy baseballers in 2008 in Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm.  Who do you think are the best fantasy breakout candidates of 2009?

On the offense I (along with many people around/within the team) would say OF Brandon Moss and 3B Andy LaRoche, two guys who have great records as prospects but struggled with the Pirates after coming in the Bay trade last year. As for the pitchers, we don’t even know who’s going to be in the starting rotation (besides Paul Maholm, of course).

5) The theme song of the 1979 Pirates was ‘We Are Family’.  What would be the best theme song for the post-Bondsian Pirates?  A) “Hard Knock Life” by Jay-Z  B) “So Far Away” by Dire Straits C) “Loser” by Beck D) “Saved The Best For Last” by Vanessa Williams

E) All of the above

1) I’m pretty high on Conor Jackson for 2009, going as far to call him Derrek Lee in a white man suit.  Care to fuel my fire and give me some projections?

Though drafted as a 3B and starting as the DBacks’ 1B the past few years, CoJack’s ‘natural position’ is OF — he finished the 2008 season as the starting LF. Despite Eric Byrnes’ presumed return this year, CoJack has been handed the starting job in the OF, and Byrnes should be the 4th OF. (If everyone stays healthy, it’ll be nice to have someone to give CY a rest in CF from time to time) Chad Tracy will play 1B against right-handed starters, with CoJack in LF; vs. lefties, CoJack will move back to 1B and Byrnes will play LF. Defensively, Jackson is a complete butcher at first, but a plus in left. He’ll probably never be a big HR hitter, but he should consistently hit at a .300 clip with 80-100 RBIs and 15-20 HRs — numbers to keep in mind in a keeper league. Jackson somehow upgraded his wheels between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and went from 2 SBs to 10. I’m expecting him to steal in double digits again this year. (More on that later) His slugging % dropped in 2008 relative to 2007, but that should bounce back up.

2) True or false, Chad Qualls is the closer for the whole year never losing the job to Jon Rauch.

True, if only for the fact that Bob Melvin believes in the somewhat obsolescent notion that each team should stick to a single reliever as closer — BoMel also has a reputation for loyalty to his players. Over the 2008 season, Qualls had an overall opposing OPS+ of just 61, but w/ RISP, that jumped to 88; with a runner on 2nd, it was 131; and with runners on 2nd and 3rd, it was a blistering 239. (Insert small sample size warning. Incidentally, Qualls’ pitching ability with runners on also prompted me to draw up the attached visual aid directed at Bob Melvin, for which I won an artistic award.)

While Rauch was stellar with the Nats, his less than impressive performance (ERA+ of 70 after the trade) during the home stretch — wherein we lost the division to the Dodgers — means he’s starting the season with a lot to prove, nor is he particularly popular in the clubhouse. I’m guessing Rauch will get more neck tattoos than saves in 2009. A more likely replacement is the homegrown Tony Peña, a.k.a. The Pitcher Formerly Known As Adriano Rosario, or Max Scherzer over the long term. (If the whole starting thing doesn’t work out. Speaking of whom…)

3)  Max Scherzer had a huge Razzball following last year.  Someone said Scherzer was one part Tim Lincecum and one part Joba Chamberlain, giving him the nickname Jobacum, which I believe was meant to intentionally sound like a Star Wars-inspired porn film.  What can we expect of Jobacum in 2009?

Scherzer is officially entering the 2009 season as the Dbacks’ 5th starter, but in terms of ability he’s almost certainly the 3rd. He’s slated into the 5 spot to cut down on innings, and it has been mentioned that he may actually start the season on the DL, not because he’s actually injured, (though he did have shoulder soreness over the winter) but to free up a roster spot. His slot in the rotation isn’t scheduled to come up until a week or two into the season. Assuming Scherzer doesn’t miss time due to injury, (which is a fairly dangerous assumption) expect him to make 20-25 starts and pitch a max of 150 innings, toss up an ERA+ around 130, (over a full season he’s unlikely to duplicate his 151 in 2008) earn up to 10 wins, and strike out approximately 2,000 batters. Okay, so maybe 150 is more realistic — he fanned 66 in 56 innings in ’08. In keeper leagues, over the long term, he’ll either move up to the 3rd starter spot or become our closer, based on how he performs this year. Eventually, he’ll replace Brandon Webb when Webby goes to the Yankees during or after the 2010 season. I really can’t give you a more solid 2009 estimate because there are just too many variables involved with Mad Max.

4) Krispie Young only stole 14 last year, leading the club.  Justin Upton, 1 steal in 108 games last year.  The Diamondbacks were 28th out of 30 clubs in 2008 for steals, trailing only Pittsburgh and San Diego.  A drop of 50 steals from 2007 to 2008.  What’s going on?  Melvin lose a bet to Billy Beane?

Steals — a strange thing happened last year. In the 2007 season, the Dbacks stole 109 bags, placing them a solid 5th in the NL, yet in 2008, they only had 58, despite getting a full season out of Justin Upton and a much better OBP from Stephen Drew. Drew has the speed to steal bases but not the will, much like the now-departed Orlando Hudson. Upton is a veritable speed demon, but even in the minors, he was only successful around 67% of the time. Part of the drop in steals has to be attributed to Eric Byrnes, whose injury-marred season dropped him from 50 in ’07 to only 4 in ’08. Byrnes’ hammies should be healed for 2009, but since he’s now platooning with CoJack and Tracy, he’ll see less playing time.

The SB news was not ALL dire, however. As previously noted, CoJack jumped up his steals total, and Mark Reynolds (who has deceptive speed) went from 0 in ’07 to 11 in ’08. Apparently, Bob Melvin decided last year that he only wanted his white guys to steal bases.  The club has already announced that they’re going to focus on stealing more bags in the 2009 season.  Look for Young to grab 30+.

5) The pool in Chase Field’s stands is meant to celebrate Arizona’s lifestyle.  What else should the Diamondbacks do to celebrate Arizona’s lifestyle? (Feel free to expand on why you chose a letter.)  A)  Instead of cap, pith helmet with fan.  B) After a home run, a player takes a Jell-o shot.   C) Tony Clark gets fake breasts.

D) Convert Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Conor Jackson and other Dbacks players to run on propane, and then convince the State of Arizona to pay 40% of the club’s player budget costs this year. (Go here for more info.)

1) Joba Chamberlain has pitched about 100 IP in each of the last two years and averages less than 6 IP a start last year.  Will he take the next step in 2009 as a starter – say 25+ games started, 175+ IP?

I think Joba’s ready to take the next big step as a starter in 2009, and he says the same thing. For starters, the Yanks have been — and will continue to be — ultra-cautious with Joba. They know they have something special, and they want to make sure that he fulfills his potential while staying healthy. That is something of a tall order. That said, since his injury in August, Joba has been prepping for this season, and he wants to make his 25-30 starts and thrown more than a 150 innings. While I don’t expect him to last a full 33-35 starts in the rotation this year simply because the Yanks will stick him on something of a limit, I see him at around 160 innings and playing a major role in the Yanks’ rotation.

2) Which Yankee is the best best to bounce back to 2007 form – Robinson Cano, Hideki Matsui, or Jorge Posada?

I have to go with Robbie Cano for this one. It would be great to see Hideki or Jorge bounce back to 2007, but Jorge’s 2007 was a career year. Catchers his age coming off shoulder surgery don’t bounce back to that level. He’ll be good but not that good. As for Matsui, I’m not sure what to expect.  Over the last three seasons, Matusi has averaged 95 games and the Yanks may be on borrowed time with him. Cano is young and has been working on his swing and timing this winter. He’s my go-to guy for comeback Yankee of the year.

3) How do you think the whole CF thing will play out between Melky, Swisher, and Gardner?

I don’t think Nick Swisher is in the center field picture. He was vocal in his dislike of center while in Chicago, and the Yanks know that. Swisher may be moved before the Hot Stove League is up, but in the end, it will come down to a good old fashioned spring training battle between Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera. The hot hand out of Tampa wins the big job in the Bronx.

4) Do you think Sabathia and Burnett will live up to expectations in 2009?

Short answer: yes. Sabathia is expected to be a bulldog ace every five days, and there’s no reason he can’t do that. He’s been successful in the AL and NL and knows how to pitch. For Burnett, the expectations are slightly lower. He just needs to stay healthy and keep on beating the Red Sox. He can do that.

5) Which number is higher:  # of hot women that Derek Jeter has slept with, # of slutty women in Hideki Matsui’s porn collection, or # of manly women that A-Rod has paid to strip for him?

As Joe Torre has seemingly refused to trash “Joe’s guys” in his book, so must I go with the traditional Yankee. My money’s on Derek’s number being higher than A-Rod’s or Matsui’s. It’s good to be king of the Yankees in New York City.

1)  Is Ishikawa the Giants 1st baseman for 2009? If not, who? If so, what can we expect from him?  “Better than Ryan Klesko” isn’t an answer.

He should get a bulk of the at-bats against right-handers, as his minor league history suggests he’s pretty useless against lefties. If the season were to start today, a lot of the at-bats at first would go to Josh Phelps, but I expect that the Giants will sign a right-handed hitter who can play both first and third. That will probably be Rich Aurilia, but there’s always a chance that the Giants will get Ty Wigginton or Nomar Garciaparra.

I wouldn’t expect a whole lot from Ishikawa. If I were to give an optimistic projection, it would be .260/.340/.450, with 18 HR. The pessimest in me says .230/.290/.390, and a trip to Fresno around June.

2)  Do the extra innings that Lincecum put on his arm in 2008 worry you?  Why or why not? (If necessary, feel free to include crazy anecdotes about how Lincecum’s father taught him to throw with an anvil so Lincecum will never break down.)

They don’t worry me more than the workload of any other young pitcher. Lincecum’s velocity was consistent late in games at the end of the season, so until there’s a data point other than “pitches thrown” to get me worried, I won’t be. Plus, as he can bend space and time, I’m sure he can control chaotic processes within his own genetic code. If he tears something, he’ll just make a new one with his mind.

3)  Please convince me Burriss or Velez will win the 2nd base job.

While either would make a cheap source for fantasy steals, the best real-life option would be Kevin Frandsen. Burriss’s value to the organization would probably be at its highest if he were a starting shortstop, so he needs defensive innings in AAA. Velez is a fast bag of antlers, I’ll give him that, but he’s pretty baseball-clueless. His defense is shoddy, at best, and he’ll never hit for average or power. He’ll make a good 25th-man someday, but that’s about it.

4)  What can we expect of Fred Lewis in 2009?

More of the same, I’d think. His batting average on balls in play was unusually high, so some folks think he’s due for a fall, but there still some room for growth to counteract any sort of regression to the mean. He took an awful lot of first pitch strikes, and might benefit from being a little more aggressive. Now that he’s a “middle-of-the-order threat” instead of a leadoff hitter, he’ll probably try and jump on first pitches more often to try and hit for a little more power, but I think any power improvement will be marginal. I’ll guess .280/.350/.470, with 14 home runs. If he bats third in the Giants’ lineup, though, he’ll get a fair number of RBIs.

5)  I think Brian Wilson will lose his job at some point in 2009.  Am I talking gibberish like the other famous Brian Wilson or are you concerned too?

I’m not too worried about Wilson. His stuff is nasty enough to make up for his wonky control. Unless his velocity dips, he’ll stick around. If he can cut his walk rate, he’ll become an elite closer. You could write that about 30+ relievers, but it’s especially true for Wilson. He has a 96-MPH fastball and an 89-MPH slider; if he has even average control, he’ll be a beast.

1) Jay Bruce. How excited are you about him for 2009? What are you expecting? Feel free to use exclamation points and run-on sentences.

….You know, I’m probably not the best person to ask this. The reason is that, somehow, I’ve never been quite as excited about Bruce as everyone else. The guy clearly has amazing talent, with great ability to hit the ball often, hard, and far. He’s also a solid defensive outfielder with a plus arm. He’s got a great personality, and even has this cool punch thing he does with his left arm to adjust his shirt sleeve when he’s waiting for a pitch. He’s a superstar in the making. But he also is a fairly impatient hitter, walking only marginally more often than Brandon Phillips last year and not a whole lot more in the minors. And he strikes out a lot, mostly because there are times when he’s just up their hacking away at anything. I think he absolutely has an opportunity to be spectacular, and maybe even will do it this year. But it’s also the case that his lack of patience and tendency to strike out (~25% of PA’s in the minors) may make it hard for him to employ all of his talents against major league pitching. Maybe I’m just letting my pessimism about the Reds invade my evaluations of Bruce, though. I sure hope he mashes this year.

2) Same question as number one, but now Joey Votto.

Votto was everything you could ever hope for last season. He was billed as a Justin Morneau player with a tad less power, and that’s essentially what we got–except that Votto is better defensively that Morneau. Fangraphs actually has them valued as almost exactly the same last season, with a slight edge for Votto (3.5 wins above replacement for Votto, 3.3 WAR for Morneau), mostly due to their defense (Morneau is absolutely the better hitter). Seems about right to me. The question with Votto is whether he can improve on his 2008 performance. I tend to think that what we saw from him is about what we can reasonably hope to get, and some of the better projection systems (CHONE, in particular) agree. If he can do what he did in 2008 every year for the next 5 years, I’ll be ecstatic.

3) I think in 2009 Cueto is going to be better than Volquez. Agree or disagree? Why?

I’ll disagree, but only marginally. Volquez was unbelievable last year, and while I think he’ll regress a bit, I still think he’s going to be a very good pitcher for us. Cueto should also improve–he all but skipped AAA and turned in a pretty decent season with good k/bb numbers. If he can avoid home runs a bit better this season, he could be right there with Volquez. … He does seem to be a fly ball pitcher, though, so homers are always going to be a problem. Especially playing in GABP. But when you add that pair to Harang and Arroyo, the Reds could very well have the best rotation in the division. My hope is that it’s a bright spot on the team. … mostly because that’s about the only spot I think we can reasonably hope to be bright.

4) After owning Aaron Harang on a few fantasy teams last year, I’m still walking like I was just jumping hurdles. Will Harang bounce back in 2009?

Not sure. I sure hope so. All of Harang’s peripherals slipped last season. I tend to believe the explanation that he was pitching through a hidden injury for at least a month, and he ultimately did have to go on the disabled list. A lot of people blame Dusty for that… I remember voicing some concern about bringing Harang back so soon after his relief appearance, but I think everyone (Dusty included) just figured Harang was a beast and could handle 239 pitches in three outings over eight days. Nothing we’d seen before then indicated that he was human, after all. He did finish strong (with the exception of that last start), which makes me feel optimistic. I do think he’ll be better in 2009. But I also think that the days of challenging for the league strikeout lead might be behind him. The guy’s going to be 31 in May. Most projection systems have him around a 4.10 ERA in 180-190 IP’s, and that seems like a reasonable hope to me.

5) If you overheard someone say, “Dusty Baker really knows how to manage a pitching staff.” Which mental disease would you think this person suffered from? Feel free to go into detail.

Nice. I do think that Dusty is really good at handling personalities in a clubhouse, including pitchers. So from that perspective, I guess this could be sort of true. And he’s probably better at managing the bullpen load than some other recent Reds managers (not saying much–some have been really bad at that). But there’s good evidence that he tends to push his starters pretty hard (the Reds had 4 guys in the top 30 in pitcher abuse points last season–though good pitchers tend to get a lot of PAP’s), and there are a fair number of arm injuries on his watch. Harang’s (hopefully) minor breakdown isn’t all his fault though–the rest of the organization had to be on board with letting him start that game so soon after his relief appearance. But it fits the general pattern we worried about when Dusty was hired, too. It’s also worth noting that Jeremy Affeldt, who last season was one of the team’s best relievers, pitched in an astonishingly low number of meaningful situations (pLI=0.56). It’s as if Dusty decides that a player will fill a particular role–in this case, middle relief/mop-up–and then can’t change his mind about it. Corey Patterson as a leadoff hitter is another example of the same problem…

1) Which Bowden Fluffer are you the most excited about? And what do you expect from them in 2009?

Elijah Dukes. He has tremendous plate discipline for a player his age, very good on-base skills, and tremendous power. He gets a lot of negative press because of his track record, but from what we’ve seen in DC he’s been a good teammate and frankly pretty close to a model citizen. I’m more concerned about his ability to stay healthy than anything. In 2009, I think a .260 / .360 / .470 line is a totally reasonable projection, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat that by 20 points in each category. If he stays healthy and gets 500 ABs, I think we’ll see 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and an all-star game appearance.

2) Ryan Zimmerman seemed poised for a 30/100 year until last year’s limp-wristed year. What’s your prediction for him in 2009?

Zimmerman started slow, which has become a typical occurrence for him, and then had a shoulder injury that cost him two months and sapped almost all of his power for the next month after that. He finally hit his first dinger after the injury on August 27, and from that game on he ripped a .325 / .381 / .553 line. He’s not that good, but that’s a hell of a month for anyone. So I’m ready to toss out his 2008 as an aberration. That said, he isn’t a 300 / 100 guy. He’s a .280 BA, 20-25 HR guy who shouldn’t be hitting higher than 6th for a good team. And he’s one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball. And he’s only 25. That’s a very valuable package, but a lot of people expect more because Bowden (as is his wont) way overhyped him when he was drafted, with comps to Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson. He always does that to players, and it’s so unfair. But whatever. This year I think CHONE’s projection for 2009 is a fair projection: 19 HR, 78 RBI, .289 BA / .364 OBP / .488 SLG. I’d be surprised if he did a lot better or worse than that, assuming he’s healthy.

3) Any optimism for the Nats staff? Any chance Scott Olsen or Daniel Cabrera are inspired by Obama and give us change we can believe in?

In a word, no. I dislike Scott Olsen as a player about as much as anyone in the Natmosphere. His K rates and velocity have been in free-fall. He’s gone from 8.27 K/9 in 2006 to 6.78 in ’07 to 5.04 in ’08, and he’s lost 3 mph off his fastball over that time. He’s a slight flyball pitcher also, and his command is ok but nothing fantastic. It’s just not a very good package. Last year he only survived in the Marlins’ rotation because of an unsustainably low .266 BABIP. Plus, he’s probably the worst teammate and one of the bigger head-cases in the league.

I don’t dismiss Cabrera’s chances quite as much as Olsen’s, but I don’t see him as anything more than a marginal fifth starter, and I don’t put any stock in his vaunted “upside.” He just can’t hit the strike zone–he improved slightly on his 5.11 career BB/9 last year, but at the same time his K/9 fell to 4.75. He’s just very hittable. Guys know he can’t get strikes with the slider and sit on his mistakes. A lot of people are putting stock in the move from the AL East, but it’s not like the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, and Braves are weak little sisters.

The team’s rap is that Olsen and Cabrera will be as good as Odalis Perez and Tim Redding but with upside. That’s poppycock. I actually would feel better about the team starting Jason Bergmann than either of these two, but Bowden’s hated him from the start, so that’s not going to happen. Frankly, I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see Olsen shipped off to Syracuse and Cabrera moved to the bullpen by the end of July.

4) Who gets more saves for the Nats in 2009? Hanrahanananan or Saul Rivera or wildcard?

Hanrahan will be the closer on Opening Day, and he’ll have to totally fall apart to lose the job. That could happen though. Last year was the first time in his pro career that he had any idea at all where the ball was going.

Rivera is an underappreciated gem. I know, middle relievers are pretty fungible commodities, but Rivera’s a groundball machine who never gives up the long ball and a total workhorse. I wanted him to close last year after the Rauch deal. But the team doesn’t see him as a closer because he doesn’t strike people out.

The wild card in my mind would be Garrett Mock. He should be given a shot at the rotation, but if he doesn’t get that he could be a back-end reliever. He’s been posting some very nice K-rates across every level since 2007, and last year he K-ed 10.1 per 9 in 41 MLB innings.

This team’s bullpen depth is really shaky. Who pitches the 7th inning for this team? Wil Ledezma? Jesus Colome? Steve Shell? Mike Hinckley? Nationals fans have been spoiled for years with stellar bullpens that have hidden our putrid rotations. That’s all over now. This year could be ugly.

I’d like to see Manny experiment with some less traditional bullpen usage this year. He doesn’t have any bullpen aces, so why not just play matchups? I don’t like the old Tony La Russa rigid 1-inning closer model anyway. But I’m not sure Manny has the vote of confidence from management that he’d need to push something so non-traditional.

One thing to watch is Chad Cordero. If he bounces back this year while the Nationals bullpen immolates, then you can go back to last July when Bowden humiliated Chief by announcing on sports talk radio 6 months before he had to that he’d be non-tendered without any notice to the player. Cordero said at the time that he was livid and unlikely ever to resign with the Nationals. Since then he’s been more forgiving, and he’s still out there, but I would be stunned to see him back, and I think the Nationals will miss him.

5) Your site is called Fire Jim Bowden. While Bowden certainly hasn’t distinguished himself as a GM, it is a tough economy and we hate to see someone unemployed. If no longer GM, what would you think would be a more suitable job for him?

He desperately craves the media spotlight, and although I find his personality grating I think he was a natural on Cold Pizza.

But if you’re asking about jobs in baseball, I think he would be a valuable asset as a scout. He has a decent eye for hitters, and there’s no question that he has a knack for finding useful role players in the major league trash heap. But that’s not nearly enough to build a winner, and he has no capacity whatsoever to think long-term and stick to a plan. Any fantasy baseball amateur could match his performance drafting pitchers. He doesn’t care a lick about defense. He’s literally never drafted a middle infielder who’s gotten so much as a cup of coffee in the majors ever. So I wouldn’t want him in charge of scouting and development, but if he was just a roving advance scout with a focus on finding young toolsy bats and undervalued veterans working for a guy like Jack Zduriencik or Pat Gillick he could contribute.

1) Last year’s acquisition of Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera led to a defensive rotation that saw 3 regulars (Guillen, Cabrera, and Inge) bounce around the field.  Has the musical chairs ended?  Does Carlos Guillen really play the whole year in LF?

I think Guillen will get the most at-bats out there, but I’d see that being only about 60-65% or so. The impending injury to Gary Sheffield will likely free up the DH spot at some point and things will get shuffled around. I think he’ll likely fare okay  at the position, but it will be other factors that may force him to move (like the need for more offense in the infield for example).

2) What are your thoughts on Verlander and Bonderman for 2009?  Bounceback candidates or more challenges to come?

I expect more from both of them. I think Verlander will make the tweak or two he needs to regain his control. Plus he didn’t pitch that badly in terms of his peripherals last year, I’d expect some natural regression (progression) towards his FIP numbers. Bonderman I think will be a big boost to the rotation. He’s had injury problems the last 2 years, but last year’s injury should have him available to pitch the bulk of the season. Plus it gave his elbow some extra rest and I think he’ll be healthier and more effective than at any point in his career.

3) Would you take the over or under on the following HR/RBI projections:  Miguel Cabrera 35/110, Gary Sheffield 20/80, Magglio Ordonez 20/100, Adam Everett 2/40?

Over, Under, Over, Push.

4) Who ends up with more saves:  Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, or Joel Zumaya?

Brandon Lyon. If Zumaya is healthy I think he’ll be the guy ultimately, but given that is such a big IF I’m penciling him in for 0 at the moment.

5) My blogmate Grey sports an impressive moustache.  Rank the moustaches of these noteworthy Detroit Tigers baseball cap wearers:  Jack Morris, Jim Leyland, Kirk Gibson, Chet Lemon, Magnum PI?

Great question. Tom Selleck in a landslide followed by Jack Morris, Kirk Gibson, Jim Leyland and lastly Chet Lemon. As an aside, I saw Tom Selleck hit a couple balls out during batting practice at Tiger Stadium one time and this is one of my favorite TV scenes of all time (see below)