Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mets Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of MetsBlog.

1) Carlos Delgado seemed done in 2007, then he wasn’t done in 2008. In 2009, done or not done and why?

I bet, like in 2008, he’s some place in the middle again. He’s not getting younger, so to expect an improvement from last season would be unrealistic. He and the team will tell you he had mechanical and mental hitches that hurt him in the start of the season, it wasn’t physical. Frankly, I prefer it be physical, because, if healthy, he’d be all set. However, what’s to say he doesn’t slide back in to those mechanical mistakes again.

2) John Maine battled some injuries in 2008, can we expect a bounce back in 2009 to a sub-4 ERA?

He’s struggling in spring training, but he says he is working on different things, from different pitches to adjustments in his delivery.

Maine is very hard on himself, and he goes in to mental funks, that translate in rough stretches during the season. He knows he needs to stop thinking, and just let the ball rip, like he was doing at the start of last season.

The key for him will be whether he can focus, stop overthinking, and create a better out pitch to keep batters from fouling off so many pitches, which often leads him to 90–pitch counts in the fourth inning.

3) Not sure if you play fantasy baseball, but even if you don’t you should be able to answer this. Reyes or Wright?

Funny you should ask, because I was in this exact position on Sunday during my league’s draft. We have an extensive prospects and keeper system, that has allowed me to carry Ryan Zimmerman since he was in Double-A. I am using him, finally, as my starting third baseman – in a head-to-head league with 16 teams, and 16 roster spots. So, because I do not have a starting shortstop, I selected Reyes with second overall pick in the draft, ahead of Wright and Hanley Ramirez. Wright was taken with the next pick.

4) How do you think Citi-Field will play? Pitcher’s park? Hitter’s park? Why?

I have no idea, and neither does any one else. I asked Jeff Wilpon this very question, when I talked with him during spring training, and he said there have been no indications yet, and nobody will really know until the team starts playing in April – and even then it will likely change as the weather warms up, the wind patterns change and it gets more humid in the summer. I believe, however, they want it to be a pitcher’s park, consistent with the team’s history.

5) Luis Castillo is projected for 490 ABs and 0 HRs. That would be a sub-Herculean achievement. Think he can pull it off?

My readers at MetsBlog.com like to call him Slappy McSingleton, but, like Clark Kent in a phone booth, turning in to Superman, he becomes Slappy McHomerton at least once or twice per season when batting from the right side of the plate – I expect the same in 2009.

I am far more concerned with his OBP than his home run totals, though.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of U.S.S. Mariner.

1) Baseball Prospectus estimates that Kenji Johjima – he of the plummeting 3-year AVG/OBP/SLG trend which fell to an atrocious .227/.277/.332 in 2008 – will get 60% of the catching time with Jeff Clement getting 2/3 of his playing time at DH.  How DO you see this playing out and how SHOULD this play out?

I think Clement’s going to end up getting about 65% of the playing time behind the plate – he’ll play against most RHP.  If his knee starts hurting, they’ll shift him to DH and stick Griffey in LF occasionally.  My guess is that Johjima gets less than 300 PA this year.

As for how it should shake out, Clement should given the chance once and for all to prove whether he can catch or not.  The best line-up the M’s can field has Clement behind the plate, Griffey at DH, and Endy Chavez in LF, so hopefully that’s the one they end up with on most days.

2) Ichiro is turning 35 and has been the picture of consistency for his 8 Mariner years – 157+ games, 31+ SB, and .300+ AVG.  Any reason to suspect he may slow down or break down in 2008?

Ichiro is a machine when it comes to stretching and keeping his body in shape.  There’s a reason he never gets hurt – he keeps his body in top physical shape, and he really has the physical skills of a 24-year-old.  His speed hasn’t declined at all, and there’s no evidence of him losing any of his past abilities.  Ichiro’s one of the most sure things in baseball.

3)  Whom do you think has the better year – F-Her or Jean-Luc Bedard?  Do you think Brendan Morrow clears 140 IP?

I think I’m just going to reject the F-Her nickname entirely.  King Felix will have a better year than Bedard.  And no, I don’t think Morrow will go over 140 IP – the organization will be careful with him, and with guys like Rowland-Smith, Olson, and Vargas kicking around, they have some decent arms who could be used to let him skip some starts from time to time.

4) Whom do you think will emerge as the closer?  Mark Lowe?  Miguel Batista? David Aardsma? Mike Schooler?  (note: asked before the Chad Cordero signing)

Mark Lowe is the favorite, mainly because his change-up gives him a weapon against LHPs.  Batista, Tyler Walker, and Roy Corcoran are all more suited to being RH specialists.  Aardsma has the stuff if his command takes a big leap forward, but that’s probably a long shot.  So, Lowe’s the best bet for saves, but I wouldn’t count on anyone getting more than 20.

5) Which Mariners’ set of moves begged for the most inevitable outcome:

a) 2005’s monster contracts for Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre = disappointments in proportion to their height

Beltre hasn’t been a disappointment at all.  He’s a star, and probably the most underrated player in the game right now.  If anything, he’s underpaid.

b) 2008’s signings of Erik Bedard + Carlos Silva = sub-VORP pitching due to Bedard’s injuries and Silva’s health

Silva’s health wasn’t a big problem last year – the M’s defense was just a disaster, and putting a pitch to contact starter in front of that group of defenders was just not going to work.

(note: ‘Silva’s health’ was a poorly phrased joke.  I was inferring that he provided sub-VORP pitching because of his lack of injuries – i.e., he’s a below average pitcher)

c) 2009’s signings of Don Wakamatsu (coach) + Ken Griffey Jr. = severe hamstring injury during pre-game calisthenics

If the M’s can limit Griffey to mostly DH’ing, he should be able to stay relatively healthy.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Crawfish Boxes.

1) I see Wandy Rodriguez for 2009 and I think underrated breakout.  Most people read that and think, “Grey’s drinking again.”  What do you think?

Wandy is the proverbial axis on which the Astros’ 2009 season spins. Fortunately, I agree with you that he’s going to have a breakout-type season. Over the course of his career, Wandy’s ERA has dropped, while his strikeout and walk numbers have improved as well. That’s pretty good indication that the ERA improvements aren’t due to luck, but rather improved skill. Last season, Rodriguez was tremendous in 14 starts at home, compiling an ERA of 2.99, with a K:BB rate of nearly 4.00. Transferring his home success to road starts would be a great way to begin his rise to the upper echelons of starting pitchers. As always, health is issue number one with Wandy. The projectors don’t have much confidence in Rodriguez’ ability to pitch the entire season (none see him making 30 starts). If he is somehow able to defy the experts, his innings should be among the most effective in the NL.

2) A) J.R. Towles will fulfill the promise of 2008 in 2009.  B) No one can fill the void left by Brad Ausmus.  A or B and why?

Humberto Quintero appears to be the front runner to begin the season as the starting catcher, and…

J.R. Towles is in a battle with Lou Palmisano to make the major league roster. It appears that Towles’ future lies somewhere between his 2007 September, and his disastrous 2008 season (obviously).  I think the thing that a lot of people forget is that Towles pretty much skipped AAA when he was anointed the starting catcher prior to 2008.  He had a fairly strong showing at AAA Round Rock (.304/.370/.500) so I think he’s still got in him to fulfill some of that promise.  Whether he gets an opportunity to do that will depend largely on how Palmisano performs, because Assistant GM Bobby Heck drafted him when Heck was with the Brewers and will likely be loath to send him back if he’s not on the 25 man roster.

3) Usually, I throw in a question about prospects, but my depth charts seem to have a missing space where the Astros impact rookies for 2009 is supposed to be.  Is there anyone who is not on people’s radars that has a chance to break camp and make an impact with the club in 2009?

The Astros are in an unenviable position. Our aging roster is matched by a farm system that is nearly barren of impact talent at highest levels of the minor leagues. The minor leaguer who seems to have the best opportunity to break camp as a major leaguer is middle infielder Edwin Maysonet, a 27 year old middle infield prospect (if you can be a prospect at 27?). This article details the competition between Maysonet and another prospect, Tommy Manzella, to be Miguel Tejada’s backup at shortstop. Neither has extremely impressive statistics, but such is the plight of the 2009 Astros. Drew Sutton (2B/SS), Chris Johnson (3B) and Bud Norris (RP) are three more prospects to keep an eye on this season. Johnson smacked a home run in his spring debut, while Norris and Sutton were studly in the Arizona Fall League. Sutton slugged .611 in 108 ABs this past fall, while Norris’ 1.89 ERA in 20 IP (anchored by a 2.74 K:BB and a 9.45 K/9) was the cherry on top of a stellar AA season.

4) Can Tejada show a glimpse of his steroids glory in 2009?

Will Miguel Tejada perform like the perennial MVP candidate that he was in the early 2000s? No. Will Miguel Tejada perform like an above average shortstop, with better defensive range than people give him credit for? Yes. Miggy still swings at too many bad balls, and doesn’t have near the power he once did, but he should improve upon a SLG% of .415 in 2008. I think that this will be especially true if the “Does Miguel Tejada need more rest?” conundrum is ameliorated by giving him a few more off days. We looked into that a little bit this off season, and rest did seem to indicate better SLG. Couple that with a BA of above .280, and Tejada is still a top ten shortstop.

5) For so many years, the Astros had the Killer B’s with Biggio and Bagwell.  Now they have Berkman and Oswalt, which is the Killer B.O. or the Killer O.B.  Neither connotes excitement.  Give me an acronym that best expresses your 2009 Astros.

A
A
R
P

Yes, that AARP.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Pirates Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Raise the Jolly Roger.

1) 2008 was a tale of two halves for Freddy Sanchez.  The 1st half was Dirty Sanchez (.226/.251/.304), the 2nd half was Steady Freddy (.346/.378/.483).  Which Freddy Sanchez can we expect for 2009?

Freddy has been a heck of an enigma ever since winning the batting title in 2006. Even then I don’t think he was super-valuable fantasy asset due to a lack of patience and power, but since then it’s been all downhill. The Bucs are expecting Steady Freddy in ‘09 because his shoulder bothered him for a good chunk of last year and it’s all healed up now, but even when he’s hitting, he’s not a great 2B fantasy option.

2) Nate McLouth went from battling for the starting CF position and leadoff spot to being the #3 hitter for much of the 2nd half.  Can McLouth put together another 100/25/100/.270/15 year?

Nate started out on fire last year and dropped off a little bit in the second half, and I think some of that had to do with the losing of Bay and Nady behind him in the lineup. He’s not a #3 hitter (and I think manager John Russell has said he prefers Nate leading off), but it’s absolutely reasonable to think he’ll produce similar numbers this year.

3) What Pittsburgh player puts the irate in Pirate for you?

That would have been an easy one a year ago, but now that Ronny Paulino is gone, I’ll say Ian Snell because he’s “irate” the most often. Basically every time Snell loses a game or the Pirates go on a losing streak (often) you can bank on him having some quote in the paper the next day along the lines of “losing sucks, I hate it.” I’d be upset too if I burned a finger on my pitching hand while cooking chicken.

4) Pittsburgh had a few pleasant surprises for fantasy baseballers in 2008 in Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm.  Who do you think are the best fantasy breakout candidates of 2009?

On the offense I (along with many people around/within the team) would say OF Brandon Moss and 3B Andy LaRoche, two guys who have great records as prospects but struggled with the Pirates after coming in the Bay trade last year. As for the pitchers, we don’t even know who’s going to be in the starting rotation (besides Paul Maholm, of course).

5) The theme song of the 1979 Pirates was ‘We Are Family’.  What would be the best theme song for the post-Bondsian Pirates?  A) “Hard Knock Life” by Jay-Z  B) “So Far Away” by Dire Straits C) “Loser” by Beck D) “Saved The Best For Last” by Vanessa Williams

E) All of the above

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Diamondbacks Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of AZ Snakepit.

1) I’m pretty high on Conor Jackson for 2009, going as far to call him Derrek Lee in a white man suit.  Care to fuel my fire and give me some projections?

Though drafted as a 3B and starting as the DBacks’ 1B the past few years, CoJack’s ‘natural position’ is OF — he finished the 2008 season as the starting LF. Despite Eric Byrnes’ presumed return this year, CoJack has been handed the starting job in the OF, and Byrnes should be the 4th OF. (If everyone stays healthy, it’ll be nice to have someone to give CY a rest in CF from time to time) Chad Tracy will play 1B against right-handed starters, with CoJack in LF; vs. lefties, CoJack will move back to 1B and Byrnes will play LF. Defensively, Jackson is a complete butcher at first, but a plus in left. He’ll probably never be a big HR hitter, but he should consistently hit at a .300 clip with 80-100 RBIs and 15-20 HRs — numbers to keep in mind in a keeper league. Jackson somehow upgraded his wheels between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and went from 2 SBs to 10. I’m expecting him to steal in double digits again this year. (More on that later) His slugging % dropped in 2008 relative to 2007, but that should bounce back up.

2) True or false, Chad Qualls is the closer for the whole year never losing the job to Jon Rauch.

True, if only for the fact that Bob Melvin believes in the somewhat obsolescent notion that each team should stick to a single reliever as closer — BoMel also has a reputation for loyalty to his players. Over the 2008 season, Qualls had an overall opposing OPS+ of just 61, but w/ RISP, that jumped to 88; with a runner on 2nd, it was 131; and with runners on 2nd and 3rd, it was a blistering 239. (Insert small sample size warning. Incidentally, Qualls’ pitching ability with runners on also prompted me to draw up the attached visual aid directed at Bob Melvin, for which I won an artistic award.)

While Rauch was stellar with the Nats, his less than impressive performance (ERA+ of 70 after the trade) during the home stretch — wherein we lost the division to the Dodgers — means he’s starting the season with a lot to prove, nor is he particularly popular in the clubhouse. I’m guessing Rauch will get more neck tattoos than saves in 2009. A more likely replacement is the homegrown Tony Peña, a.k.a. The Pitcher Formerly Known As Adriano Rosario, or Max Scherzer over the long term. (If the whole starting thing doesn’t work out. Speaking of whom…)

3)  Max Scherzer had a huge Razzball following last year.  Someone said Scherzer was one part Tim Lincecum and one part Joba Chamberlain, giving him the nickname Jobacum, which I believe was meant to intentionally sound like a Star Wars-inspired porn film.  What can we expect of Jobacum in 2009?

Scherzer is officially entering the 2009 season as the Dbacks’ 5th starter, but in terms of ability he’s almost certainly the 3rd. He’s slated into the 5 spot to cut down on innings, and it has been mentioned that he may actually start the season on the DL, not because he’s actually injured, (though he did have shoulder soreness over the winter) but to free up a roster spot. His slot in the rotation isn’t scheduled to come up until a week or two into the season. Assuming Scherzer doesn’t miss time due to injury, (which is a fairly dangerous assumption) expect him to make 20-25 starts and pitch a max of 150 innings, toss up an ERA+ around 130, (over a full season he’s unlikely to duplicate his 151 in 2008) earn up to 10 wins, and strike out approximately 2,000 batters. Okay, so maybe 150 is more realistic — he fanned 66 in 56 innings in ‘08. In keeper leagues, over the long term, he’ll either move up to the 3rd starter spot or become our closer, based on how he performs this year. Eventually, he’ll replace Brandon Webb when Webby goes to the Yankees during or after the 2010 season. I really can’t give you a more solid 2009 estimate because there are just too many variables involved with Mad Max.

4) Krispie Young only stole 14 last year, leading the club.  Justin Upton, 1 steal in 108 games last year.  The Diamondbacks were 28th out of 30 clubs in 2008 for steals, trailing only Pittsburgh and San Diego.  A drop of 50 steals from 2007 to 2008.  What’s going on?  Melvin lose a bet to Billy Beane?

Steals — a strange thing happened last year. In the 2007 season, the Dbacks stole 109 bags, placing them a solid 5th in the NL, yet in 2008, they only had 58, despite getting a full season out of Justin Upton and a much better OBP from Stephen Drew. Drew has the speed to steal bases but not the will, much like the now-departed Orlando Hudson. Upton is a veritable speed demon, but even in the minors, he was only successful around 67% of the time. Part of the drop in steals has to be attributed to Eric Byrnes, whose injury-marred season dropped him from 50 in ‘07 to only 4 in ‘08. Byrnes’ hammies should be healed for 2009, but since he’s now platooning with CoJack and Tracy, he’ll see less playing time.

The SB news was not ALL dire, however. As previously noted, CoJack jumped up his steals total, and Mark Reynolds (who has deceptive speed) went from 0 in ‘07 to 11 in ‘08. Apparently, Bob Melvin decided last year that he only wanted his white guys to steal bases.  The club has already announced that they’re going to focus on stealing more bags in the 2009 season.  Look for Young to grab 30+.

5) The pool in Chase Field’s stands is meant to celebrate Arizona’s lifestyle.  What else should the Diamondbacks do to celebrate Arizona’s lifestyle? (Feel free to expand on why you chose a letter.)  A)  Instead of cap, pith helmet with fan.  B) After a home run, a player takes a Jell-o shot.   C) Tony Clark gets fake breasts.

D) Convert Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Conor Jackson and other Dbacks players to run on propane, and then convince the State of Arizona to pay 40% of the club’s player budget costs this year. (Go here for more info.)