Fantasy Baseball Advice

Could Jake Peavy really be a sleeper for 2009 fantasy baseball?  Um, kinda.  Sorry, that wasn’t normal confidence that one expects from an alumni of the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston who studied under Matthew Berry, D.F. (No, that’s not Dumb F—.)  I should be shouting from the rooftops that Peavy is a fantasy sleeper for 2009 if I really believe it.  Well, I do and I don’t.  I really believe Peavy is going to put up top starter numbers that could land him in the top five overall for fantasy value at the end of the year.  What I don’t believe is that he’s a sleeper.  How has this guy fallen to the fifth rounds of some 2009 drafts?  Is he suddenly a different pitcher in 2009 than he was going into 2008?  No.  So why is he dropping so low?

Cause people are acting like stewpid bizzlenitches.  People are jacking Tim Lincecum all over the place like he’s guaranteed to win another 18 games.  I mean, the Giants did get Renteria and all, but, seriously, WHAT THE EFF?  (Sorry for caps, but I’m slightly annoyed that I’m seeing Peavy going in the fifth round.)  This is not 2008.  We’re drafting for 2009.  Peavy can easily win 17 games in 2009 and Lincecum can win 12.  Not to mention, Lincecum’s innings were high last year.  Now, I’m not saying I’m down on Lincecum.  It’s an example, people.  Snap!  Get off my back or I will attack and you don’t want that.  You know what else could realistically happen?  Peavy gets traded to a pennant-chasing team and he gets even more opportunities for wins.  Oh, and I don’t buy that an exit from Petco will hurt his value very much at all, so don’t try to sell me on that As Seen On TV shizz, Snuggie.

Some may look at the injury Peavy dealt with in 2008 as a reason to lower him.  Let’s take a sip of the Kool-Aid from the half-filled cup, shall we?  The time Peavy missed last year allowed him to rest a bit more, saving some innings on his arm and now he can come back even stronger in 2009.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  Jake Peavy may not be a sleeper in the traditonal sense, but he’s going lower than he should be in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

The Rangers announced their intention to move Michael Young to 3rd base for the 2009 season to make room for Elvis Andrus, their rookie prospect shortstop.  This, of course, threw Michael Young into a tizzy like an Emotionally Stunted Sandinista.  *stomps foot*  I didn’t tell them to censor all the comics, just Doonesbury! How dare the Rangers move Young’s 12 home runs to 3rd base where he would become even more fantasy irrelevant?  When Michael Young first heard of the Rangers plans, he was livid, saying, “What are my houseguests going to think now of my towels that are monogrammed with SS?  That I’m a Nazi?”  It’s surprising to see any reluctance from Young.  He was only the same guy who played through a fractured finger last season in his quest for an inconsequential 200 hits.  What’s really getting lost in all of this about Elvis Andrus replacing Young and Young moving to 3rd base?  What’s going to happen to Travis Metcalf?!  Okay, maybe that wasn’t lost.  Maybe that was sidestepped and picked up with a plastic bag.  So is Elvis Andrus a 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper?

There hasn’t been an Elvis so full of speed since The King passed away 30+ years ago.  Andrus just needs the playing time.  In Double A, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 games.  So, B-I-N-G-O, he’s fantasy relevant, because, as we know, SAGNOF.  But will he get playing time?  Well, Young’s agreed to drag his woobie over to third.  Unfortunately, Andrus is not the strongest defensive shortstop, which normally would be ignored by us fantasy baseball ‘perts, but if he can’t field in spring training, he’s not making the club.  Last year, he had 32 errors in 109 games.  This is, how do you say?  Not good.  I think this might hold him back.  I doubt Andrus makes the club out of spring training, so I would ignore him unless you’re in a very deep league or a keeper.  But if things break differently in the spring and if the Texas daily newspapers are printing groaners like, “Elvis Has Entered the Building,” and “Rangers Infield is All Shook Up,” then Elvis Andrus will absolutely be worth a draft pick, even in shallow leagues.  Cheap steals from a late MI flier are exactly what you want.

With multiple position flexibility that would make Mr. Roper growl, Pablo Sandoval is an intriguing name for 2009 fantasy baseball.  For a guy that weighs in at 250 lbs., Pablo Sandoval sure is limber with eligibility at 3rd base, 1st base and catcher in most leagues.  But if he’s eligible at catcher in your league, that’s the only position you really need to concern yourself with.  So is this the lone reason why Pablo Sandoval is a sleeper for 2009 fantasy baseball?  Is he only appealing because he’s at catcher?

Sorta.  He’s shown the ability to hit a lot of line drives.  If he could move his Winnebago-sized frame around a bit, he’d be on the verge of fantasy studliness.  Even with his Rosie the Robot-type mobility, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 35 doubles.  He’s actually a .300 hitter.  Weird, right?  Not often, you see a tubby guy who can hit for average.  (Somewhere in California, Tony Gwynn just shouted at his computer screen with a mouthful of corndog.)  Sandoval can also hit with some power, though not as much as you might think considering his physique.   Think about 14 home runs.  So Sandoval is definitely someone to target, just don’t make a Blairing Mistake.  (A Blairing Mistake is a new Fantasy Baseball Glossary term.  Named after Blair from Facts of Life, it involves fooling yourself that a player is more attractive than they really are because their peer group is homelier.  Usually found in the Catcher and Middle Infielder categories.  “Drafting Dan Uggla in the 4th round was a Blairing Mistake on my part.”) Pablo Sandoval‘s a sleeper for the later rounds in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.  Just don’t reach and make a Blairing Mistake.

I hated Brandon Phillips going into last year.  I felt he was overrated.  I thought he was being drafted like his feces smelled like Reese’s Pieces.  Then, as is the case in the game of fantasy baseball, one year changed all of that.  I don’t necessarily think my perception of Brandon Phillips has changed for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.  He still seems like a guy who can’t figure out whether to swing or not.  A .312 OBP isn’t exactly the quantum of solace (sucked!).  He only had 39 walks all of last year in over 600 plate appearances.  His .209 after July 31st gives me the Montezuma’s Revenge shakes (which are great with a side of fries. Yum!).  With praise like this, who needs insults, right?  So what is the 2009 outlook for Brandon Phillips for fantasy baseball and did he improve from last year?

He hasn’t improved.  Zoinks!  Everyone else’s perception has changed.  Last year, Phillips was coming off a 30/30 season and, in anticipation of drafting him, everyone was sticking their wood through holes in the wall.  Now Phillips comes off a bad season and everyone thinks Pedroia is the new King of Siam.  People need to chillax.  Phillips is still the number three 2nd baseman off the board.  He’s not below Uggla, he’s not below Roberts and he’s NOT (caps for emphasis, not for the hard of seeing) below Pedroia.  Brandon Phillips will not hit .300.  Shoot, he probably won’t hit .280.  He’s a .265 hitter, but he’s also a 20/20 guy and that needs to be respected.  So, as much as I don’t like guys that don’t walk, Brandon Phillips is still someone you should be drafting.

We now have some more 2009 fantasy baseball projections for you. These are CHONE-based projected Point Shares for 10 and 12 team leagues available in the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings menu at the top of the page.

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 10 Team

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 12 Team

If you want to download the 2009 projections, click here.  CHONE takes more factors into account than Marcel including home ballpark and league (Free agents are based on neutral park and 50/50 AL/NL split).  While we did not alter any CHONE projections, we did remove any player deemed unlikely to get to 300+ ABs (CHONE is admittedly over-optimistic on plate appearances which would distort counting stats).  CHONE does not project saves but we added them in based on expected closing opportunity.

We plan to create the ‘official’ Point Shares spreadsheet in the late February time frame which will account for additional factors like expected playing time.

While Marcel and CHONE are fairly correlated (87%) in projected player fantasy value, there are several players with wildly different values between the two systems.

Hitters:
Why the big differences on some of these players?  I’d say Soriano, Ortiz, Crawford, V-Mart, and Furcal are lower in Marcel because its Plate Appearance projections are more affected by last year’s injury-effected totals.  CHONE factors in minor-league stats which explains Bruce and Cruz’s higher numbers (Cruz had a monster year in AAA last year but CHONE still seems overly optimistic).

I’ve got less of an explanation for the cases where Marcel > CHONE.  Holliday’s lesser value makes sense since CHONE factors in league and park (bye-bye Coors).  Thome and Chipper Jones are old – perhaps Marcel is more optimistic on older players?  The rest of these hitters (Hamilton, Ludwick, McLouth, Pedroia) had career years in 2008 – maybe Marcel relies on last year’s stats more?

Pitchers:
I’m not sure why there are big differences on Brandon Webb.  Sheets might be lower in CHONE partly because he’s a free agent and the projections factor that he might end up in the AL.

Vazquez.  Holy fuckin’ shit!  Vazquez is ranked #4 in 10-team and #2 in 12-team Point Shares when using CHONE.  I can see Vazquez getting a boost from leaving the AL and a hitter’s park (US Cellular) to the NL and Turner Field.  But to become a $41 fantasy pitcher.  I don’t think so and here are few others that concur (Roto Savants, Hardball Times).

The three pitchers that Marcel estimates higher (Myers, Harang, Lester) follow the pattern we saw with guys like Hamilton and Ludwick.  Lester had a career year last year which Marcel credits more for 2009.  Myers and Harang had down years and Marcel punishes them more.

So what does everyone else think?