Fantasy Baseball Advice

Ryan Zimmerman went into last year with a bum wrist, which was enough for me to be down on him — Beavis, “Hehe, Grey was down on him.” — I didn’t want any part of Zimmerman.  Then when he came down with an injured shoulderitis or some shizz, I backed away slowly from him like when your friend tells you he got herpes from his cousin.  It all smelled bad like a skunk in a microwave.  There was no way I was drafting Ryan Zimmerman last year.  And my concerns were confirmed, as Zimmerman put up some yawnstipating numbers, 51/14/51/.283/1.  Those numbers look similar to the numbers Ryan Howard can put up in one month.  So why am I touting Ryan Zimmerman as a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

In September of last year, Ryan Zimmerman went 14/5/13/.290 in 93 ABs.  5 home runs in that final month shows me the surgery he had on his shoulder last summer took, and there’s no reason to have any worries about lingering problems.  Oh, bee-tee-dubya, he’s still only 24 years old.  He won’t make huge strides in his power numbers for 2009.  He’s not going to explode for 40 HRs.  He’s not that type of hitter.  But 100/20/100/.290/7 is not a completely unrealistic floor for Zimmerman.  That’s right, floor.  He can go above those numbers.  Since he’s going late in drafts, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t grab him as your 3rd baseman if you punted that earlier.  Or grab him as your corner man.  Ryan Zimmerman is not going to save your team, but he’s a decent fantasy sleeper.

My 2008 preseason pick to win the NL Rookie of the Year award was Manny Parra.  Aren’t you glad you’re listening to me for fantasy baseball advice?  In Rudy’s top 20 risky pitchers post, he didn’t label Manny Parra an injury risk for 2009.  He said, “Throws five pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Split-Finger, and Slider) all for balls (4.07 BB/9 IP).  Big spike in MLB pitch count (2,403) but only 323 if you factor in Minors.  20% breaking ball rate is fair.  Feel like his bigger issue will be throwing strikes in 2009 vs. staying healthy.”  And that’s me quoting Rudy!  I agree with Mr. G, but let’s look a bit more at Parra because I have a real good vibe about him and I think he can be a 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Last year, Parra had a 7.97 K/9 rate and nearly made 30 starts, coming up just short at 29.  He was 25 at the time.  For a first full season, those are pretty solid marks, but somewhere in the 2nd half of the season it all went wrong.  Post All-Star break, Parra posted a 5.32 ERA.  What’s weird about that is he had a better K rate AND (caps for emphasis and those with bad eyes) a better walk rate in the 2nd half of the season.  Zoinks!  So his ERA ballooned while striking out more per inning and walking less.  That doesn’t make a whole lotta sense, Big Bird.  You’re right, Mr. Snuffleupagus.  So what was going on there?  Hmm… I’m going use Step One from my brand-new, unwritten pamphlet called, “Use Your Brain, Grey” and see what I can surmise.   (BTW, when Johnny Mize visited brothels, he went by Sir Mize — oofa!)

In the 2nd half of the season, Parra had a BABIP of .372, showing he was pretty unlucky.  So his poor luck forced him to stop nibbling on the corners and attack hitters more, which raised his Ks (because he has solid stuff) and lowered his walks.  The problem, he was attacking a little too recklessly and it raised his ERA.  He should’ve nibbled a little more.  Wow, this not-yet-written pamphlet works!   Now it could all happen again, so let’s not start blowing each other just yet.  In the top 80 starters for 2009 post, I put Manny Parra‘s 2009 projections at 11-9/4.10/1.40/160.  To quote my Jewish grandmother, “You could do worse. “

In 2009, penciled in behind Josh Hamilton in the cleanup spot for the Rangers is Nelson Cruz.  He has 30 homer pop and could steal ten bases with Ron Kovic pinch running.  Where’s the lose?  Why is he a fantasy sleeper and not simply being drafted like the Minotaur he is?  Wait a second, Grey, are you going to burst my freakin’ bubble on Nelson Cruz? Sorry, random italicized voice, I’m just injecting a bit of realism into your 2009 fantasy drafts.  Anyway, why is Nelson Cruz a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Check Cruz’s 2006 minor league numbers: .302/.373/.528 with 20 HRs.  Jump on Oprah’s couch, Cruz.  Those numbers are incredible. And more of the same in 2007, but still in the minors — .352/.426/.698 with 15 HRs in only 44 games.  Why didn’t the Rangers bring him up? They did.  Oh, man, he was injured, huh? Nope.  If a beach ball fell onto the field, he couldn’t knock it back into the stands.  Rumors say the Rangers were considering using his whiffs to cool the luxury boxes.  Cruz is The Miz and the minors is the Intercontinental Championship.   In 2008, he hit well again in the minors, .342/.426/.695, but then, on his call-up, it finally came together in the majors.  In 115 ABs, Cruz went .330/.421/.609 with 7 HRs.

But now he’s twenty-eight years-old.  Way to get your act together for the decline of your career.  So this last one hundred plus at-bats is probably fluky, right?  His BABIP was at a .388 clip.  So he has a better chance of striking out 150 times next year than hitting .330.  Still, he walked seventeen times last year in those 115 ABs.  In his 2007 stint in the Majors, he walked twenty-one times in 307 ABs.  Cruz has definitely turned a bit of a corner, but a 28-year-old corner’s expectations should be kept in check.  Could he be 2009′s Ryan Ludwick?  Yup.  Could he start off in a bad slump and fall back into bad patterns?  Yup.  Nelson Cruz is a 2009 sleeper, but he could easily end up needing to be put to sleep.  If everything breaks right, his 2009 projections could be 75/25/90/.270/10.

That’s a Fantasy Baseball Look at the signings or trades of Randy Wolf, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Heilman, Rich Hill, Andruw Jones and Ty Wiggington.  And, yes, I couldn’t resist the palindrome.  I’m real late to the discussion on some of these.  Not because I didn’t hear about them, but I just didn’t feel like they warranted immediate attention.  So here’s a fantasy baseball breakdown for these offseason signings and trades:

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.

If you do like moi (That’s French.  Face it, I’m cultured like yogurt.), you’ll avoid top level starters at your 2009 fantasy baseball draft and you’ll try to find value later on.  Hey, I really like Roy Oswalt! And I like Wandy Rodriguez, what’s it to ya, random italicized voice?  Last season, Wandy Rodriguez finally put together a season that hinted at his respectable minor league numbers and suggested he might be someone to look at late.  To stick with the French theme, let’s take out a scalpel and dissect this frog.  So could Wandy Rodriguez be a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Last year, Wandy Rodriguez put up a very solid ERA of 3.54.  But, as some of us may know, you can put the value of ERA by itself as a predictor of future performance in one hand and crap in the other hand and tell me which one is heavier.  Better still Wandy’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 3.62, which was actually better than Oswalt’s.  Without sabering you to death as you try to understand what FIP means, it’s basically pitchers’ stats minus fielders.  Another great sign, Wandy’s K/9 ratios keep going up every year.   Last year, those rates were 8.58.  Also, he finally got his BB/9 below 3.  Then there’s the hitter’s park he plays his home games in that he’s completely neutralized with some serious home schooling. The one drawback on Wandy Rodriguez and why he may be falling in some drafts, he showed himself to be a bit injury prone last year as he battled a groin injury (ouch!) and an oblique injury (vague!).  But, really, that shouldn’t matter.  Wandy’s being drafted around some schmohawks as Armando Galarraga (blech!), Joe Blanton (blah!) and Jamie Moyer (barf!).  At that price, Wandy Rodriguez is a 2009 fantasy sleeper.