Fantasy Baseball Advice

If you’re havin’ pitching problems I feel bad for you, son… I got 99 problems but pitching ain’t one…. Check the baseline out, uh-huh… Bounce wit it to my bro Ryan’s glove, uh-huh uh-huh uh-huh, yeah… Can’t leave the hitters alone, the Nats need me… There’s a new Jay-Z in town and his name is Jordan Zimmermann. Hey, it’s everyone’s favorite for the National League Rookie of the Year.  Hey, how ya doing, National League’s favorite for Rookie of the Year?  Can I get you some hundred dollar bills to use for toilet paper?  Jordan Zimmermann went from no one’s cheddah to melting his Velveeta all over people’s draft sheets.  So where’d Jordan Zimmermann come from and is he here to stay?  Is he, dare I say, a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

In our Nats preview post, the owner of FireJimBowden (prescient!) was asked about Zimmermann and he said, “I would be careful. The Nationals defense is going to be terrible. He probably won’t open the season in the rotation. And I see him as more of a #2-3 eventually anyway.”  And that’s me quoting him!  Granted, that was before Zimmermann took it to spring trainingers.  Through Monday of spring training, Jordan Zimmermann has struck out 16 in 12 1/3 scoreless innings.  Now I understand the hype!  /sarcasm  With four pitches and Colin Balester in the rotation, there’s no reason to think Zimmermann can’t crack the Nats staff.  It’s a matter of whether the Nats will give him the shot.  With the team’s overall performance and the whole Bowden riding his Segway to the bank with overaged prospects thing, the Nats could use some good pub so I think they probably will let ‘mann open the season in the rotation.  But what can we expect of him?

Since Jordan Zimmermann is unfortunately on the Nats, don’t count on Wins.  As mentioned early, he has 4 pitches.  He uses those 4 pitches to strikeout snitches.  He K’d a little more than a guy an inning in the minors.  Then couple that with good (enough) control.  Since ya’ll know me better than I know myself (what did I have lunch?  Wrong!  Pastrami!), guess what I say to a youngster that can strikeout people?  Sign me up!  In the deep rounds of a draft, I’d definitely take a flier on Jordan Zimmermann.  But remember, for every Volquez, there’s a Parra and Cueto.

If I may jump into the cavern of your noggin for a moment, you’re probably thinking, “Lastings Milledge — isn’t he that failed prospect the Mets gave up on?”  Slow your roll there.  He’s only 23 years old.  Or maybe you’re thinking, “I could’ve sworn I remember seeing Milledge on my league’s waivers last year.”  You’re right; Milledge clogged up outfields last year with non-digestible tools causing many to drop him.  Through the end of July last year, Milledge was at 7 home runs, 13 steals and a .237 average.  re: those numbers, They’re awful!  Don’t go back and look again.  You’ll go blind like the Blind Art Garfunkel on American Idol.  Yet, through all of this, I still think Milledge is a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Hear’s Y as an illiterate wood right.

After Milledge spent fourteen/sixteenths of his 2008 vomiting onto Bowden’s Segway, from August to October, Milledge spent his time polishing those same wheels.  In the last 50+ games, he beat his early season numbers, hitting 7 home runs and stealing 11 with a .318 average.  You can refer to him the same way you refer to the guy who works at Home Depot, “Hey, Toolsy!”  He’s also a Bowden Fluffer.  According to the Razzball Glossary, a Bowden Fluffer is defined as a young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools.  Rarely lives up to the promise.  Named after ex-Nationals GM Jim Bowden who had a boner for these types of players.  So, if you draft Lastings Milledge in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, it could mean a cheap 20/20 hitter, but, most importantly, Jim Bowden will get wood.  And where he’s going, he might need it.  As I said in the top 40 outfielders for 2009 post, Lastings Milledge has promise for this year and he’s definitely a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

We’ve gone over whether or not you should grab a starter early, Rudy’s fantasy baseball strategy says sure, why not?  My fantasy baseball strategy says not so much.  Whichever strategy you subscribe to, you’re still going to need some late round value.  The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  As I used to call Cliff Notes in college, this is a companion piece.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

Nelson Cruz – He’s never hit well in the majors for longer than a month.  He’s had lots of opportunities.  Might be the Ludwick pick of the draft or might be on waivers by the 2nd week in April.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  These are your decisions.

Cameron Maybin – Could be a cheap Victorino without the average.  Not a cheap Victorian, i.e. Is she using rat tails to tie up her bodice? Then again, perhaps Maybin is Carlos Lee with less power, more speed and no average.  Or he’s just Mike Cameron.

Fred Lewis – Giants hit him third in a spring training game.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!

Ryan Spilborghs – If he’s the starter then he deserves a spot on NL-Only teams, but I really wish he’d break something to open the door for Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ian Stewart or…

Dexter Fowler – Should be the Rockies center fielder.  Will he?  Doubtful, but in keeper leagues, you should own him leaving your draft.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is going to get his chance to put up 15/15 numbers.

Delmon Young – It’s still very early in spring training and I try not to pay too much attention just yet to who’s hitting well, but Young is hitting well.

Shin-Soo Choo – Get on the Shin-Soo Choo train.

Elijah Dukes -  As long as he doesn’t flip out and prove Carl Jung right about aptronyms, you’ll be fine.  For what it’s worth, Carl Jung was never very good at fantasy baseball.

Justin Upton – I put him last because I want to highlight him.  Justin Upton could take the biggest jump of anyone on this list.  He has the potential to be a number two outfielder while being drafted as a four or a five.  His ceiling is, “Superstar.”

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Zimmerman -  “For today’s game of Jew or Not a Jew… Ryan Zimmerman.”

Pablo Sandoval – He’s not fat, he’s jolly.  I still prefer him more as a catcher, but in deep leagues I could see the case made for Sandoval as a 3rd baseman, especially with the loss of A-Rod.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball blogger’s perennial sleeper.

Mark Reynolds – Capable of 30 HRs and 10 steals.  I will call you bizarro, low average, swing-happy David Wright.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – If only he didn’t play his home games in Petco… To paraphrase Bubb Rubb, “Woooooo…”

Joe Mather – Troy Glaus’s replacement until Glaus returns (read: May or much later).  CHONE projects Mather for 19 HRs and 6 steals with a .253 average, but that’s in 415 ABs.  Last year in Triple-A, Mather crushed the ball hitting 17 HRs and batting .303 in only 59 games.  Then again, that was in the offense-minded PCL.  Just looking at the numbers, Mather profiles to me like mini-Glaus.  Some pop, low average.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit 25 homers and bat .240 over an entire season.  It also wouldn’t be unlikely to see Glaus stay unhealthy with his old man shoulder.  Act like you know, MC Lyte!