Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs.  Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff.  Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause.  Duncan, “And you know that!”

Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275.  Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.

Casey Kotchman – Kendry Morales minus 3 home runs.

Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs.  See how that worked.

James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson?  Rhetorical!

Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year.  ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs.  That seems doable.  He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP.  He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.

Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time.  I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.  The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.

Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs.  I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009.  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.  He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training.  Exciting, huh?  Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th.  He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits.  What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training?  Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s not just hot.  He’s not just red hot.  He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey!  This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke.  In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors.  In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP.  At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope.  Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough.  He’s not going to explode for power suddenly.  20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling.  So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you.  The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals.   For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

In our Nats preview post, the owner of FireJimBowden (prescient!) was asked about Zimmermann and he said, “I would be careful. The Nationals defense is going to be terrible. He probably won’t open the season in the rotation. And I see him as more of a #2-3 eventually anyway.”  And that’s me quoting him!  Granted, that was before Zimmermann took it to spring trainingers.  Through Monday of spring training, Jordan Zimmermann has struck out 16 in 12 1/3 scoreless innings.  Now I understand the hype!  /sarcasm  With four pitches and Colin Balester in the rotation, there’s no reason to think Zimmermann can’t crack the Nats staff.  It’s a matter of whether the Nats will give him the shot.  With the team’s overall performance and the whole Bowden riding his Segway to the bank with overaged prospects thing, the Nats could use some good pub so I think they probably will let ‘mann open the season in the rotation.  But what can we expect of him?

Since Jordan Zimmermann is unfortunately on the Nats, don’t count on Wins.  As mentioned early, he has 4 pitches.  He uses those 4 pitches to strikeout snitches.  He K’d a little more than a guy an inning in the minors.  Then couple that with good (enough) control.  Since ya’ll know me better than I know myself (what did I have lunch?  Wrong!  Pastrami!), guess what I say to a youngster that can strikeout people?  Sign me up!  In the deep rounds of a draft, I’d definitely take a flier on Jordan Zimmermann.  But remember, for every Volquez, there’s a Parra and Cueto.

After Milledge spent fourteen/sixteenths of his 2008 vomiting onto Bowden’s Segway, from August to October, Milledge spent his time polishing those same wheels.  In the last 50+ games, he beat his early season numbers, hitting 7 home runs and stealing 11 with a .318 average.  You can refer to him the same way you refer to the guy who works at Home Depot, “Hey, Toolsy!”  He’s also a Bowden Fluffer.  According to the Razzball Glossary, a Bowden Fluffer is defined as a young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools.  Rarely lives up to the promise.  Named after ex-Nationals GM Jim Bowden who had a boner for these types of players.  So, if you draft Lastings Milledge in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, it could mean a cheap 20/20 hitter, but, most importantly, Jim Bowden will get wood.  And where he’s going, he might need it.  As I said in the top 40 outfielders for 2009 post, Lastings Milledge has promise for this year and he’s definitely a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

Nelson Cruz – He’s never hit well in the majors for longer than a month.  He’s had lots of opportunities.  Might be the Ludwick pick of the draft or might be on waivers by the 2nd week in April.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  These are your decisions.

Cameron Maybin – Could be a cheap Victorino without the average.  Not a cheap Victorian, i.e. Is she using rat tails to tie up her bodice? Then again, perhaps Maybin is Carlos Lee with less power, more speed and no average.  Or he’s just Mike Cameron.

Fred Lewis – Giants hit him third in a spring training game.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!

Ryan Spilborghs – If he’s the starter then he deserves a spot on NL-Only teams, but I really wish he’d break something to open the door for Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ian Stewart or…

Dexter Fowler – Should be the Rockies center fielder.  Will he?  Doubtful, but in keeper leagues, you should own him leaving your draft.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is going to get his chance to put up 15/15 numbers.

Delmon Young – It’s still very early in spring training and I try not to pay too much attention just yet to who’s hitting well, but Young is hitting well.

Shin-Soo Choo – Get on the Shin-Soo Choo train.

Elijah Dukes -  As long as he doesn’t flip out and prove Carl Jung right about aptronyms, you’ll be fine.  For what it’s worth, Carl Jung was never very good at fantasy baseball.

Justin Upton – I put him last because I want to highlight him.  Justin Upton could take the biggest jump of anyone on this list.  He has the potential to be a number two outfielder while being drafted as a four or a five.  His ceiling is, “Superstar.”

Ryan Zimmerman -  “For today’s game of Jew or Not a Jew… Ryan Zimmerman.”

Pablo Sandoval – He’s not fat, he’s jolly.  I still prefer him more as a catcher, but in deep leagues I could see the case made for Sandoval as a 3rd baseman, especially with the loss of A-Rod.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball blogger’s perennial sleeper.

Mark Reynolds – Capable of 30 HRs and 10 steals.  I will call you bizarro, low average, swing-happy David Wright.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – If only he didn’t play his home games in Petco… To paraphrase Bubb Rubb, “Woooooo…”

Joe Mather – Troy Glaus’s replacement until Glaus returns (read: May or much later).  CHONE projects Mather for 19 HRs and 6 steals with a .253 average, but that’s in 415 ABs.  Last year in Triple-A, Mather crushed the ball hitting 17 HRs and batting .303 in only 59 games.  Then again, that was in the offense-minded PCL.  Just looking at the numbers, Mather profiles to me like mini-Glaus.  Some pop, low average.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit 25 homers and bat .240 over an entire season.  It also wouldn’t be unlikely to see Glaus stay unhealthy with his old man shoulder.  Act like you know, MC Lyte!