Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs.  Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff.  Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause.  Duncan, “And you know that!”

Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275.  Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.

Casey Kotchman – Kendry Morales minus 3 home runs.

Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs.  See how that worked.

James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson?  Rhetorical!

Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year.  ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs.  That seems doable.  He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP.  He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.

Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time.  I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.  The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.

Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs.  I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009.  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.  He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training.  Exciting, huh?  Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th.  He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits.  What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training?  Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s not just hot.  He’s not just red hot.  He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey!  This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke.  In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors.  In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP.  At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope.  Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough.  He’s not going to explode for power suddenly.  20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling.  So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you.  The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals.   For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

In our Nats preview post, the owner of FireJimBowden (prescient!) was asked about Zimmermann and he said, “I would be careful. The Nationals defense is going to be terrible. He probably won’t open the season in the rotation. And I see him as more of a #2-3 eventually anyway.”  And that’s me quoting him!  Granted, that was before Zimmermann took it to spring trainingers.  Through Monday of spring training, Jordan Zimmermann has struck out 16 in 12 1/3 scoreless innings.  Now I understand the hype!  /sarcasm  With four pitches and Colin Balester in the rotation, there’s no reason to think Zimmermann can’t crack the Nats staff.  It’s a matter of whether the Nats will give him the shot.  With the team’s overall performance and the whole Bowden riding his Segway to the bank with overaged prospects thing, the Nats could use some good pub so I think they probably will let ‘mann open the season in the rotation.  But what can we expect of him?

Since Jordan Zimmermann is unfortunately on the Nats, don’t count on Wins.  As mentioned early, he has 4 pitches.  He uses those 4 pitches to strikeout snitches.  He K’d a little more than a guy an inning in the minors.  Then couple that with good (enough) control.  Since ya’ll know me better than I know myself (what did I have lunch?  Wrong!  Pastrami!), guess what I say to a youngster that can strikeout people?  Sign me up!  In the deep rounds of a draft, I’d definitely take a flier on Jordan Zimmermann.  But remember, for every Volquez, there’s a Parra and Cueto.

After Milledge spent fourteen/sixteenths of his 2008 vomiting onto Bowden’s Segway, from August to October, Milledge spent his time polishing those same wheels.  In the last 50+ games, he beat his early season numbers, hitting 7 home runs and stealing 11 with a .318 average.  You can refer to him the same way you refer to the guy who works at Home Depot, “Hey, Toolsy!”  He’s also a Bowden Fluffer.  According to the Razzball Glossary, a Bowden Fluffer is defined as a young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools.  Rarely lives up to the promise.  Named after ex-Nationals GM Jim Bowden who had a boner for these types of players.  So, if you draft Lastings Milledge in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, it could mean a cheap 20/20 hitter, but, most importantly, Jim Bowden will get wood.  And where he’s going, he might need it.  As I said in the top 40 outfielders for 2009 post, Lastings Milledge has promise for this year and he’s definitely a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

Nelson Cruz – He’s never hit well in the majors for longer than a month.  He’s had lots of opportunities.  Might be the Ludwick pick of the draft or might be on waivers by the 2nd week in April.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  These are your decisions.

Cameron Maybin – Could be a cheap Victorino without the average.  Not a cheap Victorian, i.e. Is she using rat tails to tie up her bodice? Then again, perhaps Maybin is Carlos Lee with less power, more speed and no average.  Or he’s just Mike Cameron.

Fred Lewis – Giants hit him third in a spring training game.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!

Ryan Spilborghs – If he’s the starter then he deserves a spot on NL-Only teams, but I really wish he’d break something to open the door for Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ian Stewart or…

Dexter Fowler – Should be the Rockies center fielder.  Will he?  Doubtful, but in keeper leagues, you should own him leaving your draft.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is going to get his chance to put up 15/15 numbers.

Delmon Young – It’s still very early in spring training and I try not to pay too much attention just yet to who’s hitting well, but Young is hitting well.

Shin-Soo Choo – Get on the Shin-Soo Choo train.

Elijah Dukes -  As long as he doesn’t flip out and prove Carl Jung right about aptronyms, you’ll be fine.  For what it’s worth, Carl Jung was never very good at fantasy baseball.

Justin Upton – I put him last because I want to highlight him.  Justin Upton could take the biggest jump of anyone on this list.  He has the potential to be a number two outfielder while being drafted as a four or a five.  His ceiling is, “Superstar.”

Ryan Zimmerman -  “For today’s game of Jew or Not a Jew… Ryan Zimmerman.”

Pablo Sandoval – He’s not fat, he’s jolly.  I still prefer him more as a catcher, but in deep leagues I could see the case made for Sandoval as a 3rd baseman, especially with the loss of A-Rod.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball blogger’s perennial sleeper.

Mark Reynolds – Capable of 30 HRs and 10 steals.  I will call you bizarro, low average, swing-happy David Wright.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – If only he didn’t play his home games in Petco… To paraphrase Bubb Rubb, “Woooooo…”

Joe Mather – Troy Glaus’s replacement until Glaus returns (read: May or much later).  CHONE projects Mather for 19 HRs and 6 steals with a .253 average, but that’s in 415 ABs.  Last year in Triple-A, Mather crushed the ball hitting 17 HRs and batting .303 in only 59 games.  Then again, that was in the offense-minded PCL.  Just looking at the numbers, Mather profiles to me like mini-Glaus.  Some pop, low average.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit 25 homers and bat .240 over an entire season.  It also wouldn’t be unlikely to see Glaus stay unhealthy with his old man shoulder.  Act like you know, MC Lyte!

Ryan Theriot/Jason Bartlett – Exactly the kind of late-round shortstop you should be targeting when you’re feeling light on speed.  They’d be a nice MI complement if you had Hardy as your shortstop.  And if you get scooped on Theriot, just grab Bartlett.

Brandon Wood – Earlier this offseason, I said this, “Not sure yet what the Angels of Bobby Grichville have planned for Wood in 2009, but he has eligibility at 3rd and SS, which gives him the Superfecta eligibility of MI and CI.  Keep in mind that he was booted from a winter league for his poor performance. (The same league where convicted pedophile Luis Polonia is now the career hits leader. No lie; he’s the Pete Rose of the Dominican.)”  And that’s me quoting me!

Clint Barmes – What if I told you he was going to out produce Yunel?  You’d say, “Is that a compliment?”

Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie – I wanted Lowrie to get the job just to put some flare in my MI spot, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening.  Lugo looks like the man to beat at shortstop and he’s good for 25 steals.  Either man could be a late round sleeper for an MI spot in deep leagues.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Remember that movie Clueless when they said, “As IF!”  When I read this shortstop’s name, I always hear it with that inflection, “As DRUBAL!”  Hmm… I’m pushing the Drubal pretty hard this offseason.  Well, he’s a cheap MI candidate so put that in your pipe and smoke it!  If you were, ya know, Popeye or Sherlock Holmes.

PSYCHE!  Before we get to the 2nd basemen to target, small site update.  Frequent commenter and F.O.R., Figgy, made this fantasy baseball tiers thingamajack that I think some of you might be interested in.  Thanks, Figgy!  Make sure you scroll to the right on the fantasy baseball tiers thingamajack, it goes over.  It can also be found in the sidebar on the left under ‘Fantasy Baseball Features’ and under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings at the top.  Okay, on to the 2nd basemen.

Jose Lopez – I really wanted to write a sleeper post about this doode.  I did.  I ended up not writing it because I just couldn’t find enough to get excited about.  If that sounds like the exact opposite thing you want to hear when looking for guys to target, it kinda is.  But these are 2nd basemen, so you’re not going to find an insanely valuable hidden gem like when Max, your Golden Retriever, pooped out your dead Nana’s broach.

Ian Stewart – Unfortunately, he’s not 2nd base eligible in a lot of leagues.

Mike Aviles – He’s a poor man’s Kelly Johnson.  That’s really not a big compliment, but, late enough in a draft, Aviles is worth a flier.

Rickie Weeks – If he doesn’t come down with a case of a strained something-or-other, potentially Mike Cameron at 2nd base.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Think about the giggles you’ll get from your 12-year-old cousin if you have Asdrubal and Pujols on the same team.

Mark Teahen – He doesn’t have eligibility yet but the Royals are trying him out at 2nd.  I wish they’d just go with Alberto Callaspo.  If Teahen wins the job, and I’m skeptical, he could offer some value at 2nd.  If Callaspo wins the job, I’m buying.  He can hit (and run while intoxicated) and he has speed.

Emmanuel Burriss – SAGNOF if he wins the job.

Felipe Lopez – Here’s one last guy who I haven’t discussed much on this site, which is for shame because I really like him this year.  The last time he played a full season in a hitter’s park he went 97/23/85/.291/15.  Now he’s had a lot of crappy seasons since then but he’s only 28 and he’s back in a hitter’s park.  If he goes 20/20 at 2nd base, you’ll be thanking me.  You’re welcome.

First, let me say what has me looking at Longoria a lot harder.  The BBTF did a breakdown of the Rays with ZIPS projections.  They have Longoria’s projections at 78/28/91/.264/6.  Waaaaay back in January, I said Evan Longoria’s 2009 projections would be 85/30/110/.275/7.  As you can see, my projections are more optimistic.  When you, or at least when I, look at those other projections I begin to wonder if Aramis a round or two later is better value than Longoria. (If curious, I have Aramis’s projections at 105/30/115/.295 from the 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20 third basemen and ZIPS has Aramis at 84/27/100/.289/1)

Included in the BBTF charts is a player profile where it goes over the possibility of certain stats being reached by Longoria.  There’s a 33% chance of Longoria hitting .275+ (only a 7% chance of him hitting .300+).  There’s a 38% chance of him hitting 30+ HRs (actually an 8% chance of him hitting 40 HRs) and a 17% chance of 10+ steals.  So what I’m taking away from those odds and projections is Longoria’s not going to hit .300, but he has some power to spare (and a bit of speed).  Aramis has no speed, a bit less power and more average.  Also, Longoria’s younger and rising while Aramis is a few years older and apparently plateauing.  Longoria also has more risk than Aramis.

For fantasy purposes, I’ll take more home runs and steals over average every day of the week and twice on Muesday (that’s Monday after 5 and before noon on Tuesday).  So I said Evan Longoria is a late 2nd rounder and I still agree.  Phew, a restoration of F.I.G — Faith In Grey.

Pablo Sandoval – I have his 2009 projections as 60/14/65/.300.  I think he can get to 17+ home runs without losing anything on the average side.  He’s not as appealing to me as a 3rd baseman or a swimsuit model.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Salty will see time at 1st base, DH and catcher.  He’s going after some stankworths as Inge, Pierzynski and Suzuki.

Taylor Teagarden – Even with Saltymochachino standing in his way I like him to get enough ABs to be worthwhile.  Teagarden is better with the glove and Blalock will get injured.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta comes from a long line of Italian-American catchers, Napoli, Torre, Cannoli, Berra, Girardi, Piazza and Sal Falsano.  Mamma mia!  Now throwa chest protector ona Nicky Punto.

Jesus Flores – Flores para los muertes! Flores! Para los muertes!  Some pop, low average.

Jeff Clement – Great late flier for power.  If you were to take someone like Pierzynski over Clement, you deserve to lose your league.  Sorry, sometimes the truth stings.  You rub it with some lying-to-yourself ointment.

J.R. Towles – In 2008, I was off him like black off rice, but I haven’t mentioned him much, if at all, in 2009.  You just need to throw out 2008.  Pretend like it never happened.  Or pretend like the only part that happened was when he hit .304 in almost 50 games after his callback from the minors.   He has speed and some slight power.  The absolute best case scenario seems to be Russell Martin.  In the so-late-it-doesn’t-matter-anymore round, you turn your head to the East and you see no catchers by your side.  Then like JT accompanying TI, you turn your head to the West, still nobody in sight.  So you turn your head to the North, swallow that pill that they call pride and draft Towles.

Similarly to a wah-wah storyline from a bad sitcom, Fred Lewis was bothered by bunions for most of last year.  It’s impossible to know how many bases Fred Lewis would’ve stole if not for the bunions, but I’m gonna guess more than the 21 he did steal.  He also missed quite a few games with this chronic foot-to-path disease.  It’s hard to say how many home runs he would’ve hit if he didn’t miss all of those games, but, like a foot, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say more than the 9 he did hit.  Now that your expectations are soaring, I’m gonna knock them down a bit.  With extra at-bats and less luck, Lewis probably won’t hit the .282 he hit last year.   Cuz, see, his BABIP was a bit too high, even for a chop and run hitter.  Also, he’s already 28 years old, last year (with extra games) is about as much as we can expect from him.  I’d put Lewis’s 2009 fantasy projections at about 95/12/50/.270/25.  Those are a bit optimistic, but they’re not fall off from some outfielders going much higher in 2009 drafts.  Fred Lewis should be good, as long as he’s got these bunions beat — “Get your feet checked.  You big dummy!”

In September of last year, Ryan Zimmerman went 14/5/13/.290 in 93 ABs.  5 home runs in that final month shows me the surgery he had on his shoulder last summer took, and there’s no reason to have any worries about lingering problems.  Oh, bee-tee-dubya, he’s still only 24 years old.  He won’t make huge strides in his power numbers for 2009.  He’s not going to explode for 40 HRs.  He’s not that type of hitter.  But 100/20/100/.290/7 is not a completely unrealistic floor for Zimmerman.  That’s right, floor.  He can go above those numbers.  Since he’s going late in drafts, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t grab him as your 3rd baseman if you punted that earlier.  Or grab him as your corner man.  Ryan Zimmerman is not going to save your team, but he’s a decent fantasy sleeper.

Last year, Parra had a 7.97 K/9 rate and nearly made 30 starts, coming up just short at 29.  He was 25 at the time.  For a first full season, those are pretty solid marks, but somewhere in the 2nd half of the season it all went wrong.  Post All-Star break, Parra posted a 5.32 ERA.  What’s weird about that is he had a better K rate AND (caps for emphasis and those with bad eyes) a better walk rate in the 2nd half of the season.  Zoinks!  So his ERA ballooned while striking out more per inning and walking less.  That doesn’t make a whole lotta sense, Big Bird.  You’re right, Mr. Snuffleupagus.  So what was going on there?  Hmm… I’m going use Step One from my brand-new, unwritten pamphlet called, “Use Your Brain, Grey” and see what I can surmise.   (BTW, when Johnny Mize visited brothels, he went by Sir Mize — oofa!)

In the 2nd half of the season, Parra had a BABIP of .372, showing he was pretty unlucky.  So his poor luck forced him to stop nibbling on the corners and attack hitters more, which raised his Ks (because he has solid stuff) and lowered his walks.  The problem, he was attacking a little too recklessly and it raised his ERA.  He should’ve nibbled a little more.  Wow, this not-yet-written pamphlet works!   Now it could all happen again, so let’s not start blowing each other just yet.  In the top 80 starters for 2009 post, I put Manny Parra‘s 2009 projections at 11-9/4.10/1.40/160.  To quote my Jewish grandmother, “You could do worse. “

Check Cruz’s 2006 minor league numbers: .302/.373/.528 with 20 HRs.  Jump on Oprah’s couch, Cruz.  Those numbers are incredible. And more of the same in 2007, but still in the minors — .352/.426/.698 with 15 HRs in only 44 games.  Why didn’t the Rangers bring him up? They did.  Oh, man, he was injured, huh? Nope.  If a beach ball fell onto the field, he couldn’t knock it back into the stands.  Rumors say the Rangers were considering using his whiffs to cool the luxury boxes.  Cruz is The Miz and the minors is the Intercontinental Championship.   In 2008, he hit well again in the minors, .342/.426/.695, but then, on his call-up, it finally came together in the majors.  In 115 ABs, Cruz went .330/.421/.609 with 7 HRs.

But now he’s twenty-eight years-old.  Way to get your act together for the decline of your career.  So this last one hundred plus at-bats is probably fluky, right?  His BABIP was at a .388 clip.  So he has a better chance of striking out 150 times next year than hitting .330.  Still, he walked seventeen times last year in those 115 ABs.  In his 2007 stint in the Majors, he walked twenty-one times in 307 ABs.  Cruz has definitely turned a bit of a corner, but a 28-year-old corner’s expectations should be kept in check.  Could he be 2009′s Ryan Ludwick?  Yup.  Could he start off in a bad slump and fall back into bad patterns?  Yup.  Nelson Cruz is a 2009 sleeper, but he could easily end up needing to be put to sleep.  If everything breaks right, his 2009 projections could be 75/25/90/.270/10.

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.

Last year, Wandy Rodriguez put up a very solid ERA of 3.54.  But, as some of us may know, you can put the value of ERA by itself as a predictor of future performance in one hand and crap in the other hand and tell me which one is heavier.  Better still Wandy’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 3.62, which was actually better than Oswalt’s.  Without sabering you to death as you try to understand what FIP means, it’s basically pitchers’ stats minus fielders.  Another great sign, Wandy’s K/9 ratios keep going up every year.   Last year, those rates were 8.58.  Also, he finally got his BB/9 below 3.  Then there’s the hitter’s park he plays his home games in that he’s completely neutralized with some serious home schooling. The one drawback on Wandy Rodriguez and why he may be falling in some drafts, he showed himself to be a bit injury prone last year as he battled a groin injury (ouch!) and an oblique injury (vague!).  But, really, that shouldn’t matter.  Wandy’s being drafted around some schmohawks as Armando Galarraga (blech!), Joe Blanton (blah!) and Jamie Moyer (barf!).  At that price, Wandy Rodriguez is a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Cause people are acting like stewpid bizzlenitches.  People are jacking Tim Lincecum all over the place like he’s guaranteed to win another 18 games.  I mean, the Giants did get Renteria and all, but, seriously, WHAT THE EFF?  (Sorry for caps, but I’m slightly annoyed that I’m seeing Peavy going in the fifth round.)  This is not 2008.  We’re drafting for 2009.  Peavy can easily win 17 games in 2009 and Lincecum can win 12.  Not to mention, Lincecum’s innings were high last year.  Now, I’m not saying I’m down on Lincecum.  It’s an example, people.  Snap!  Get off my back or I will attack and you don’t want that.  You know what else could realistically happen?  Peavy gets traded to a pennant-chasing team and he gets even more opportunities for wins.  Oh, and I don’t buy that an exit from Petco will hurt his value very much at all, so don’t try to sell me on that As Seen On TV shizz, Snuggie.

Some may look at the injury Peavy dealt with in 2008 as a reason to lower him.  Let’s take a sip of the Kool-Aid from the half-filled cup, shall we?  The time Peavy missed last year allowed him to rest a bit more, saving some innings on his arm and now he can come back even stronger in 2009.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  Jake Peavy may not be a sleeper in the traditonal sense, but he’s going lower than he should be in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

There hasn’t been an Elvis so full of speed since The King passed away 30+ years ago.  Andrus just needs the playing time.  In Double A, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 games.  So, B-I-N-G-O, he’s fantasy relevant, because, as we know, SAGNOF.  But will he get playing time?  Well, Young’s agreed to drag his woobie over to third.  Unfortunately, Andrus is not the strongest defensive shortstop, which normally would be ignored by us fantasy baseball ‘perts, but if he can’t field in spring training, he’s not making the club.  Last year, he had 32 errors in 109 games.  This is, how do you say?  Not good.  I think this might hold him back.  I doubt Andrus makes the club out of spring training, so I would ignore him unless you’re in a very deep league or a keeper.  But if things break differently in the spring and if the Texas daily newspapers are printing groaners like, “Elvis Has Entered the Building,” and “Rangers Infield is All Shook Up,” then Elvis Andrus will absolutely be worth a draft pick, even in shallow leagues.  Cheap steals from a late MI flier are exactly what you want.

Sorta.  He’s shown the ability to hit a lot of line drives.  If he could move his Winnebago-sized frame around a bit, he’d be on the verge of fantasy studliness.  Even with his Rosie the Robot-type mobility, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 35 doubles.  He’s actually a .300 hitter.  Weird, right?  Not often, you see a tubby guy who can hit for average.  (Somewhere in California, Tony Gwynn just shouted at his computer screen with a mouthful of corndog.)  Sandoval can also hit with some power, though not as much as you might think considering his physique.   Think about 14 home runs.  So Sandoval is definitely someone to target, just don’t make a Blairing Mistake.  (A Blairing Mistake is a new Fantasy Baseball Glossary term.  Named after Blair from Facts of Life, it involves fooling yourself that a player is more attractive than they really are because their peer group is homelier.  Usually found in the Catcher and Middle Infielder categories.  “Drafting Dan Uggla in the 4th round was a Blairing Mistake on my part.”) Pablo Sandoval‘s a sleeper for the later rounds in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft.  Just don’t reach and make a Blairing Mistake.

He hasn’t improved.  Zoinks!  Everyone else’s perception has changed.  Last year, Phillips was coming off a 30/30 season and, in anticipation of drafting him, everyone was sticking their wood through holes in the wall.  Now Phillips comes off a bad season and everyone thinks Pedroia is the new King of Siam.  People need to chillax.  Phillips is still the number three 2nd baseman off the board.  He’s not below Uggla, he’s not below Roberts and he’s NOT (caps for emphasis, not for the hard of seeing) below Pedroia.  Brandon Phillips will not hit .300.  Shoot, he probably won’t hit .280.  He’s a .265 hitter, but he’s also a 20/20 guy and that needs to be respected.  So, as much as I don’t like guys that don’t walk, Brandon Phillips is still someone you should be drafting.

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 10 Team

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 12 Team

If you want to download the 2009 projections, click here.  CHONE takes more factors into account than Marcel including home ballpark and league (Free agents are based on neutral park and 50/50 AL/NL split).  While we did not alter any CHONE projections, we did remove any player deemed unlikely to get to 300+ ABs (CHONE is admittedly over-optimistic on plate appearances which would distort counting stats).  CHONE does not project saves but we added them in based on expected closing opportunity.

We plan to create the ‘official’ Point Shares spreadsheet in the late February time frame which will account for additional factors like expected playing time.

While Marcel and CHONE are fairly correlated (87%) in projected player fantasy value, there are several players with wildly different values between the two systems.

Hitters:
Why the big differences on some of these players?  I’d say Soriano, Ortiz, Crawford, V-Mart, and Furcal are lower in Marcel because its Plate Appearance projections are more affected by last year’s injury-effected totals.  CHONE factors in minor-league stats which explains Bruce and Cruz’s higher numbers (Cruz had a monster year in AAA last year but CHONE still seems overly optimistic).

I’ve got less of an explanation for the cases where Marcel > CHONE.  Holliday’s lesser value makes sense since CHONE factors in league and park (bye-bye Coors).  Thome and Chipper Jones are old – perhaps Marcel is more optimistic on older players?  The rest of these hitters (Hamilton, Ludwick, McLouth, Pedroia) had career years in 2008 – maybe Marcel relies on last year’s stats more?

Pitchers:
I’m not sure why there are big differences on Brandon Webb.  Sheets might be lower in CHONE partly because he’s a free agent and the projections factor that he might end up in the AL.

Vazquez.  Holy fuckin’ shit!  Vazquez is ranked #4 in 10-team and #2 in 12-team Point Shares when using CHONE.  I can see Vazquez getting a boost from leaving the AL and a hitter’s park (US Cellular) to the NL and Turner Field.  But to become a $41 fantasy pitcher.  I don’t think so and here are few others that concur (Roto Savants, Hardball Times).

The three pitchers that Marcel estimates higher (Myers, Harang, Lester) follow the pattern we saw with guys like Hamilton and Ludwick.  Lester had a career year last year which Marcel credits more for 2009.  Myers and Harang had down years and Marcel punishes them more.

So what does everyone else think?

Doode, read the title of the post.  Am I calling him a sleeper because he’s not worth drafting?  Figure it out, man.  Seriously.  Like that weird guy who lives downstairs from you who always leaves his black Jockey underwear in the washer, Stewart is a swinger.  This much is true.   Stewart’s Ks were atrocious in 2009, but he’s shown that he can improve a K rate.  Every time he’s made a new step up in his professional career, it’s been a steep decline with striking out, but he’s always made the necessary adjustments.  In 2008, he swung at a lot less pitches out of the strike zone than he had in the past, which is a solid sign.  Listen, he’s still going to strikeout.  No doubt about it.  But he might hit 20 home runs and steal 7 bases.  Who’s that sound like?  Ryan Zimmerman?  Yeah, I agree.  Now let’s go over some schmohawks that are being drafted before Stewart, in no particular order because these guys don’t deserve that much respect — Omar Infante, Eric Bruntlett, Russell Branyan, Jose Castillo, Wes Helms (!) and Brandon Inge.  Yuckety yuck yuck.  If you find yourself in a jam at your corner infidel spot, take a chance on Ian Stewart.

Very few guys will give you the possibility of 30 home runs in the 20th round for your corner infidel.  Think about how huge this could be.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  You’re not thinking, you’re patronizing me.  Fine, I’ll continue anyway. Begrudingly.  Imagine you take Chone Figgins at 3rd — blech, I know, but bear with me — so now you have a major power outage from your 3rd baseman.  How do you make this up?  You grab McPherson real late.  Even in mixed leagues, McPherson should be drafted in the final rounds.  Some of the schmohawks that are being drafted around him are Bill “You Suck For Even Contemplating Drafting Me” Hall, Ronnie Belliard and Ty Wigginton.  None of those guys has the sweet, sweet upside of McPherson.  The Marlins GM has already said McPherson is penciled in at 3rd for 2009.  Pencils do have erasers, but unless something drastically changes, Dallas McPherson is going to be a solid fantasy sleeper for 2009.  If McPherson fails to land a full-time MLB job, he’s got a job waiting for him on one of T. Boone Pickens wind generator farms.

Let’s pull up a stool to The Real Life Situation Bar and explain Gordon in some terms you might understand.  You remember that girl you picked up at the bar last year who was kabang from the front and kaboom from the back?  She was way out of your league.  You’re only hope was her falling off a boat, coming down with amnesia and thinking you were Kurt Russell.  Unfortunately, you weren’t on a boat.  You were in the line for the bathroom with a splotch of ketchup on your Big Johnson T-shirt.  Somehow God took pity on your sorry ass and this girl not only was willing to talk to you, but she also had DiDi Seven Stain Remover.  One ketchup stain and a few beers later, you ended back at your dorm room and through a miracle of miracles, you got lucky.  Then you woke up to find the most hideous breasted creature.  You realized you unknowingly took home the girl everyone on campus called The Unibrowser and you were out Firefoxed!  Now, to get The Unibrowser out of your room before anyone saw her, you began to explain to her how every morning you need to apply ointment to your cold sores.  She just laughed and showed you the Eggs Benedict she made for you while you were sleeping.  You tasted them and they were perfect.  So, like any real man, you decided to wolf down brunch, then kick her out.  Then, as you finished the eggs, she explained to you how she’s the daughter of the owner of Friendly’s and she’s the heir to the Fishamajig® throne.  So she’s rich and she can cook.  Hmm… Now you’re thinking about how you’re not such a great prize either and maybe you two can make a Happy Ending together.

So in this scenario, The Unibrowser is Alex Gordon and you’re you.  2008 was when you woke up and saw her unibrow.  Now in 2009, you never want to see her again, but you need to let The Unibrowser make you eggs and reveal that she’s loaded.  Don’t forget why we all liked Gordon to begin with.  Gordon’s final minor league season had him putting up 111/29/101/.325/22.  Yes, he’s sucked in the majors, but George Brett, who he’s most often compared to, only had 11 home runs his 2nd major league season.  I’ve seen Gordon show up in 2009 mock drafts surrounded by some stalwart schmohawks as Carlos Guillen, Ty Wigginton and Mark Reynolds.  Everyone has been burned by Gordon at least once in the last two years.  In 2007, he was destined to be the Rookie of the Year and in 2008 he was on everyone’s short list to take the next step.  Now he’s ending up on everyone’s “You Will Never Burn Me Again” List.  He comes with risk, but he has the skills for 75/20/75/.280/15.  Don’t kick The Unibrowser out of bed just yet.

He’s a sleeper because he’s being drafted after some other 3rd basemen whose names I curse, such as Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff.  Chris Davis will hit more home runs than these three schmohawks.  Shoot, he already beat Bummerman in 2008.  In 26 less games, Davis hit three more home runs than Zimmerman.  Then there’s Atkins, someone who might want to start eating carbs again.  In 300 extra at-bats, Atkins only hit four extra home runs.  Then there’s Huff… Does anyone really want Huff?  Wasn’t that Showtime show enough?

In 2009, I think Davis’s OBP will rise a bit, his BABIP will come slightly down and his average will stay about where it was in 2008, the .285 range.  He’s country strong and can do The Mashed Potato like Dee Dee Sharp.  His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he was able to maintain a decent average in the minors with all of those Ks.  His upside is greater than a lot of guys going into the 2009 season, but, as is often the case, his risk is greater too.  I’m going to preach some caution because of his youth and the Ks.  I think he should get to 85/30/95/.280/2 in 2009. When the top corner infidels are off the board in mixed leagues, Chris Davis is someone to grab.  He should go after guys such as Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins, but give much better numbers.

In 2008, Blake DeWitt was rushed to the majors to fill-in at 3rd base prior to the Casey Blake move. He was marginally meh, but never quite eh or feh. He has limited power and speed. Kent could prolly out-homer him even in his 41st year on the planet and Rickey Henderson could still outrun him. Blake’s ideal 2009 has him at about 60/14/75/.275/7. Kelly Johnson just yawned reading those numbers.  Now Blake also has corner and middle eligibility (here’s a list of all the players that have multiple position eligiblity for 2009), and there won’t be many 2nd basemen who come as discounted as Blake in 2009 fantasy drafts. Some of the schmohawks I’ve seen drafted before Blake are Mark Loretta, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Mark Grudzielanek and Marco Scutaro.  I just vomited in my mouth writing some of those names. So towards the end of your NL-Only drafts or very deep mixed leagues, Blake DeWitt is a good sleeper name to have stashed away.