Fantasy Baseball Advice

Admit it, you stay at the Luxor because it’s adjacent to the Mandalay Bay at a third of the price (and they have inclinators instead of elevators!).  You see a bottle of Acme Store Brand Tomato Sauce Medley and you think that’s not aftertaste, that’s a persistence of flavor!  Photoshop — bleh!  You have scissors and paste!  Cellphone?  You can yell really loud.  This, friends, is the economy of our times, so why not use some of that thriftiness towards fantasy baseball?  Sure, everyone would like to have ten first round picks and start Miguel Cabrera at their Utility spot, but it’s just not feasible.  You need some cheap alternatives.  Anyway, here’s some players that are going very early in fantasy baseball drafts and their cheap alternatives:

Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

I already did the catchers, 2nd basemen, shortstops, 3rd basemen, outfielders and starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I skipped the 1st basemen on purpose because I don’t think you should be taking a flier on 1st basemen.  You need some anchors for your hitting.  Then someone commented yesterday asking for the 1st basemen to target and the course of Razzball history was changed forever, like when Marty got into that DeLorean.  I haven’t changed my mind that you shouldn’t be taking a flier on a 1st basemen, but sometimes things are out of your control or you need a corner man or a Utility guy.  This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs.  Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff.  Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause.  Duncan, “And you know that!”

Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275.  Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.

Casey Kotchman – Kendry Morales minus 3 home runs.

Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs.  See how that worked.

James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson?  Rhetorical!

Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year.  ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs.  That seems doable.  He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP.  He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.

Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time.  I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.  The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.

Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs.  I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009.  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.  He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training.  Exciting, huh?  Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th.  He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits.  What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training?  Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s not just hot.  He’s not just red hot.  He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.

Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper.  Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper.  More like a Prince Valium one.  After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237.  “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout.  I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him.  Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon.  Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die.  This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one.  So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

Remember the blonde chick from the The Real World:  Hawaii, who, like, totally fell for Colin?  She was the cute girl with the young grandmother body.  You know who I’m talking about?  Cool.  Yeah, she’s not Kendry Morales.  Kendry Morales is the doode that the Angels are putting in as their starting 1st baseman.  Joly Hesus!  A prospect that is going to be playing 1st for an AL team that scores runs like an NL team!  How did you miss that, right?  Pretty easily.  He’s sizz-ucked in his limited time in the majors.  In 127 games in the Majors, he’s sitting on a career line of 12/45/.249 with no speed.  If you were a Benihana chef, you’d cut the tail of those numbers and flip ‘em into your hat.  So what is it that I like about Kendry Morales that makes him a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey!  This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke.  In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors.  In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP.  At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope.  Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough.  He’s not going to explode for power suddenly.  20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling.  So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you.  The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals.   For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.

Usually I wait until the 1st of every month to go over who’s closing where and who’s backing them up.  You know, the Donkey-Corn/Brain Freeze/$12 Salad post.  See, you are familiar with my work.  Great, I love how you do whatever you do too.  Being in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, my diploma from The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says I must do some early closer updates for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’m not going to mention guys who are completely safe as of right now.  One generalization before I get to these closer schmohawks.  You want anyone getting saves.  Yes, you do.  Trust me.  You may think Lindstrom will return in 2 weeks and be fine getting 25 saves this year.  You may be right.  But if Leo Nunez starts the season as the closer, there’s just as good a chance that he keeps the job all year.  Last year, you swore Chad Cordero would get the job back from Rauch and there was no reason to grab Big Jon.  You swore Huston Street would take back the job from Ziegler.  You also missed out on good closers.  Anyway, here’s some closers to watch for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.