Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already looked at some 2009 rookies for fantasy baseball, such as Travis Snider, Matt Wieters, Killa Kahula and Brett Gardner. Now we turn our monocled eye towards David Price. It took some time for the Rays’ farm system to pay dividends, but, now that it has, it’s a doughy bagel. (A doughy bagel is a situation that is very good for its kind; eminently good. I’m trying to get “doughy bagel” to catch on so use it whenever you can. Thanks!) The best thing about this doughy bagel farm system is they are stacked right now in the majors and they have prospects in the minors. And the Jewel of the Tampa Nile is David Price. He’s bona fide as a character in a bad Coen Bros film might say. Aw, look at Grey, he watched the World Series and now he’s hyped up on David Price for 2009. God, random italicized voice, I hate you. Yes, there’s a chance that the World Series will have people overrating David Price for 2009. But there’s a chance he can be as good as the hype.

When he was at Vanderbilt (Did you know Grey almost went there for undergrad? You did? Stalker!), Price was some kind of dynamo. Price’s numbers are those of legends. Then the Rays took him from High A to Double-A to Triple-A to the Majors in 2008 as they boosted his Frequent Flyer miles and primed him for 2009. Between those Minor League stops he went a cumulative 12-1/2.30 and 109/32 K/BB ratio in 19 starts. He suffered his only loss in his Triple-A debut. Not necessarily a terrific sign, but it might have been nerves. In 2009, I predict the Rays will try and get Price at least 20 starts. This could mean he starts the season in the bullpen and waits for an injury to a starter cough Kazmir cough. This will shake out more in spring training. If you’re drafting for 2009 before spring, grab Price like a third or fourth fantasy starter. Think Gallardo going into 2008. Yes, I used one of the biggest busts of 2008 on purpose because drafting Price means embracing risk. Anyway, Price should go in mixed leagues some time around draft pick 130 to 140. In AL-Only and keeper leagues, you obviously need to be much more aggressive.

I have to be honest, part of me hopes Kila Ka’aihue fails simply because his name is so difficult to spell. Does this make me an underachiever? Or does the fact I didn’t feel like looking up if underachiever was supposed to be hypenated make me an underachiever? Hmmm… Damn you, Kila Ka’aihue, and your impossible to spell name and your promising skill set! You got me second guessing my very nature! (Or is it nuture?) I guess things could be worse, I could have to talk about Kila Ka’aihue and Mike Moustakas. Maybe when Moustakas gets the call in 2010 or so, I’ll just refer to them both as the Hawaiian-Greek fusion restaurant, The Spam Kebab, which sounds delicious, right? Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah… Kila Ka’aihue! Let’s look at why you should be familiar with this weirdly, apostrophed name for 2009 fantasy baseball.

Kila Ka’aihue is a Hawaiia’an mash machine, poi! I’d be through the roof for this doode if it wasn’t for the Royals boneheaded trade earlier this offseason for Jacobs, which reminds me– What do you get when you cross a team that insists on cutting its Major League low $20-something million payroll with a team that doesn’t understand it already has potentially four 1st basemen? You get the Marlins dealing Jacobs to the Royals, a team that has Shealy, Ka’aihue, Gload and Butler. Watch closely to see if Ka’aihue lands somewhere else that can make use of a guy who had an OPS of 1.085 last year in the minors and 37 HRs in 401 at-bats. A guy that hit a home run in almost every third game in Triple-A should prolly get a chance somewhere. You would think the peasant Royals could find room, but they need to maintain the lack of integrity in their product — it’s the Royals way!  If Ka’aihue is sharing time, he’s nothing but an AL-Only sleeper. If he can find a starting spot, he’s mixed league material.

We’ve looked at some of other potential fantasy baseball 2009 keepers — 2009 rookies — doodes — already with our ongoing 2009 fantasy rookie series. Today (this afternoon, whenever you’re reading this) we look at the New York Yankees rookie center fielder, Brett Gardner. Gardner had 127 ABs last year, but he’s all rookie for our porpoises.  (Which reminds me, I found out recently my girlfriend went on a trip about five years ago and rode on a dolphin. The thought of her going for a dolphin ride made me jealous, even though she never told me she was with an ex-boyfriend. I just assumed that you go for trips that involve dolphin rides when you’re vacationing with someone special. Baby, look at his fin! He’s waving! This is the best time of my life! I hope he sprays me with his spout like you did last night! You don’t go for dolphin rides when you’re with some jerkoff. Dolphin rides are what girls do with nice guys. But I digress.) Brett Gardner may not even start for the Yankees in center field, but if he does, there’s a reason you’ll want to keep an eye on him for 2009 fantasy baseball.

SAGNOF. That’s why, faithful Razzball reader. Gardner has the power of Juan Pierre, and the legs of him too. In 1448 minor league at-bats, Gardner had an OBP of .389 while averaging about a steal every 3rd game. When he moved to the majors, he still averaged a steal every 3rd game, which is a lot of steals if he can play 120 games. His OBP didn’t carry over from the minors, but he’s still young and has time to improve. He could find himself leading off for the Yanks if everything breaks right for him, which would lead to a lot of steals and runs. Gardner is a perfect endgame target in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues.

We talked about picking up Travis Snider at the tail end of September, so you can imagine that we’re pro-Snider in 2009. (Or at least I am. Not sure why I always say we. I guess I got a We Complex.)  I don’t want to get the hype machine going too rapaciously (Word of the Day and I’m not sure it’s used correctly), but Snider’s most similar comparisons are Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. He can’t, obviously, walk on water as well as Jay Bruce and I’ve never seen him cure the Pox like Chris Davis. But Snider can hit home runs and strikeout like those two rookie nookie phenoms. When I went over Matt Wieters’s 2009 fantasy outlook, I preached caution. Take a wait and see approach. Travis Snider is in a better situation than Wieters for 2009 and could be more valuable in fantasy baseball.

Travis Snider September callup in 2008 showed that the Jays are excited about his prospects and they’ve committed to giving him a chance to make the club out of spring training. In the minors, Snider did exactly what should be expected of him in 2009 — home runs and Ks. In 2009, I think Snider will be a bit of a batting average liability, but I think he can evetually move past that. If he gets the OF job out of spring training, Snider could be a cheap source of 20 home run power. Initially, I see him splitting time with Lind and, if he can get off to a hot start, it should mean he’s here to stay. In AL-Only leagues, he’s absolutely draftable. In mixed leagues, I’d be a bit more cautious, but I could definitely see a late round flier taken on him, especially in deep leagues.

If you don’t know the name Matt Wieters, you will. No, he’s not the guy that just moved in next door that feeds pigeons, pigeons that then sit around all day on the telephone wires and crap all over your car. Though I do know that guy, and he simultaneously sucks and blows. Matt Wieters is not that guy, he’s the Minor League rookie catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. He’s the rookie catcher that could make a Geovany Soto-like impact on fantasy leagues in 2009. He’s the rookie catcher that is being compared to Mike Piazza and not because Belle and Sebastian wrote a song about him. He’s also the rookie catcher that hasn’t played above Double-A. So why all the hype about Wieters? Can he help your fantasy baseball team in 2009?

In 61 games and 208 at-bats of Double-A, Wieters went 12/51/.365. Zoinks! The numbers get even more delicious the further you dig, rookie prospector. An OBP of .460 — an OPS of 1085. Okay, now that you prolly want to have Wieters’s baby like Arod would carry Madonna’s, time to bring you back to earth. No, Earth is polluted! Sorry, but Mike Piazza and Geovany Soto are the exceptions to the rule for rookie catchers. In 2008, Geovany Soto went 66/23/86/.285. While those are great numbers for a rookie and incredible numbers for a rookie catcher, they are still only 66/23/86/.285. Those numbers only placed him 91st on our player rater while ranking 5th on the top 20 catchers for 2008 list. So what I’m saying is, even the best rookie catchers are only so good for fantasy baseball. Bill James projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs in 2009. You don’t argue with Bill James — you disagree then Bill waves his pinkie finger and you fall to the ground, temporarily paralyzed — but 24 home runs is very optimistic. (In all fairness, James’s numbers do change depending on expected playing time.)  If Wieters makes the club out of spring training and he seems to be handling major league pitching, my recommendation is to pursue Wieters as a late round sleeper. But just remember, for every Geovany Soto, there’s always a Saltamochachino.