In our Nats preview post, the owner of FireJimBowden (prescient!) was asked about Zimmermann and he said, “I would be careful. The Nationals defense is going to be terrible. He probably won’t open the season in the rotation. And I see him as more of a #2-3 eventually anyway.”  And that’s me quoting him!  Granted, that was before Zimmermann took it to spring trainingers.  Through Monday of spring training, Jordan Zimmermann has struck out 16 in 12 1/3 scoreless innings.  Now I understand the hype!  /sarcasm  With four pitches and Colin Balester in the rotation, there’s no reason to think Zimmermann can’t crack the Nats staff.  It’s a matter of whether the Nats will give him the shot.  With the team’s overall performance and the whole Bowden riding his Segway to the bank with overaged prospects thing, the Nats could use some good pub so I think they probably will let ‘mann open the season in the rotation.  But what can we expect of him?

Since Jordan Zimmermann is unfortunately on the Nats, don’t count on Wins.  As mentioned early, he has 4 pitches.  He uses those 4 pitches to strikeout snitches.  He K’d a little more than a guy an inning in the minors.  Then couple that with good (enough) control.  Since ya’ll know me better than I know myself (what did I have lunch?  Wrong!  Pastrami!), guess what I say to a youngster that can strikeout people?  Sign me up!  In the deep rounds of a draft, I’d definitely take a flier on Jordan Zimmermann.  But remember, for every Volquez, there’s a Parra and Cueto.

David Price – I think he hits 150 innings and makes a huge difference for the teams who own him.  I’d pursue him like a third or fourth fantasy starter.

Matt Wieters – He’s been discussed ad nauseum since I discussed him way back in November.  I won’t have him in any league.

Cameron Maybin – I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s a top 30 outfielder at the end of the year.  That’s a hunch more than anything.   What, I can’t have crushes?

Colby Rasmus – I like him in NL-Only leagues if he leaves spring training with a gig.

Travis Snider – Cheap source of 20 homer power.

Elvis Andrus – Liked him a whole lot more before Omar “I Will One Day Die At The Hands Of Jose Mesa” Vizquel joined the team.

Andrew McCutchen – Keep your eye on him in NL-Only keepers.  He might be a doughy bagel as soon as 2010.

Carlos Carrasco – I like him more than most, but he needs an injury to someone else to see some RT (that’s Rotation Time.  Acronyms don’t work as well when I have to explain them.)

Brett Gardner – I loved him back in November.  Now I’m a bit lukewarm.  If he can find legitimate PT, he swipes 30 bags.  Two things are going in his favor 1) Melky’s his main competition.  2)  See Number One.

Kenshin Kawakami - Two parts Kuroda, one part Hideki Irabu.

Jason Heyward – Keep Heyward in mind in NL-Only keeper leagues.  He’s my early frontrunner for NL ROY for 2010.

Chris Dickerson – Dusty Baker is talking of playing veterans.  Oh, Dusty.  You card!

Mat Gamel -  If he leaves camp with a full-time gig, he will be worth owning in mixed leagues.

Taylor Teagarden – I’d like him more if the Rangers didn’t have Saltymochachino in front of him.  Yet, I still like him.  I like Salty too.  To quote your Mom’s favorite movie title, “Something’s Gotta Give.”

James McDonald – If McDonald gets the fifth starter job in The Los Angeles City of Los Angeles (<–required by Anaheim law), he could be a great NL-Only sleeper.  James McDonald is a fantasy sleeper?! That’ll be a big seller in Google searches.

There hasn’t been an Elvis so full of speed since The King passed away 30+ years ago.  Andrus just needs the playing time.  In Double A, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 games.  So, B-I-N-G-O, he’s fantasy relevant, because, as we know, SAGNOF.  But will he get playing time?  Well, Young’s agreed to drag his woobie over to third.  Unfortunately, Andrus is not the strongest defensive shortstop, which normally would be ignored by us fantasy baseball ‘perts, but if he can’t field in spring training, he’s not making the club.  Last year, he had 32 errors in 109 games.  This is, how do you say?  Not good.  I think this might hold him back.  I doubt Andrus makes the club out of spring training, so I would ignore him unless you’re in a very deep league or a keeper.  But if things break differently in the spring and if the Texas daily newspapers are printing groaners like, “Elvis Has Entered the Building,” and “Rangers Infield is All Shook Up,” then Elvis Andrus will absolutely be worth a draft pick, even in shallow leagues.  Cheap steals from a late MI flier are exactly what you want.

Okay, I lied.  The real-real question is, will Rasmus win the starting job in 2009 for the Cards?  He might.  In February of 2008, the Cards GM said Rasmus will be in the majors in 2008.  A funny thing happened on the way to The Gateway to the West.  Rasmus sucked down a big bottle of Mediocre in the spring of 2008 and then went down with a knee injury in July.  He skipped out on winter ball, choosing to do his own strength and conditioning program (Beer and German pretzels?).  The good news is his knee should be healed in time for the spring of 2009.  Rasmus still has the skills of someone who can run, homer and strikeout with the best of them. To give you an idea of what to expect, if you’re showing Colby Rasmus and the dealer shows Krispie Young, that’s a push. His value could go up in the April, if he leaves spring training with a starting OF job.  In NL-Only and keeper leagues, you should pursue Colby Rasmus right now as a late round sleeper.  In mixed leagues, wait to see if he has the job in spring training.  If he does, then you should be buying in too.

Nope.  But… You said he was Yeti-like! Sorry, random italicized voice, it’s a bummer. I know.  So you’re probably thinking to yourself why am I even talking about him? (Yes, I can read your mind. Spooky, huh?)  Firstly, when I decided to go over 2009 fantasy rookies — Wait, you don’t need to know it from the jump, as the kids said in the early naughts. Fast forward to my reasoning… Twenty-seventhly, Heyward is going to be something special probably as soon as 2010.  This is a wake up call for all keeper leagues, NL-Only and mixed ones.  You know all that power and speed you love about The Uptons?  Heyward has that in duckets.  He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.  You want a prediction limb? Heyward goes 25/15 in his first full season with the Braves and he invents a Snuggie that doesn’t look quite as monk-like.

Bill James projects a full-time Mat Gamel in 2009 hitting 18 home runs and over .300 in 150 games.  I think that’s being too conservative on the power, but too generous on the games played.  If Gamel gets a full-time gig out of spring training, I think we could see 27/80/.300 and 40 errors.  The Brewers also realized Gamel’s glove isn’t ready for the majors and now have in place the third base blahtoon of Mike Lamb and Bill Hall.  Gamel is probably destined for the outfield, but the Brewers outfield is a bit crowded right now.  Gamel needs Corey Hart to tongue kiss Casey Kotchman and come down with a bad case of mono for Gamel to see any significant time in the Brewers outfield in 2009.  I’m sure the Brewers want Gamel to play 3rd; I’m almost positive Gamel wants to play 3rd, but inspiration meets perspiration meets no fielding ability, doesn’t add up to a major league 3rd baseman.  Unless the Brewers play Gamel in short left field in front of Braun, the glaring flaw in his defensive game makes him too much of a liability for the Brewers and too much for you, except in deep keeper leagues.

Gerald Laird? Yeah, he’s serviceable. Jarrod Saltimbocca? He was enticing enough to get from the Braves and he’s wonderful with broccoli rabe. Taylor Teagarden? (Has six) HR(s) in (the last) 12 games. Before you rush out to pickup Teagarden, see 1/18 of a centimeter after this period. Max Ramirez, the future at catcher for the Rangers, was called up on Monday night. This gives the Rangers three promising catchers, a fourth usable catcher and no pitchers. Let’s see, the last three World Champions have had Varitek, Pierzynski and one of The Flying Molina Bros. Usable pieces, for sure, but not exactly the cogs that made the offense work. Earth to the Rangers, wtf?

And you can add Carlos Ruiz to that illustrious group of championship catchers. So, is Nolan Ryan trying to make amends for something he said about the catchers he worked with? Did someone roofie this organization’s common sense? Seriously, WTF?! I wasn’t even going to cover these Rangers rookie catcher schmohawks because there’s too many of them for any of them to have any fantasy worth, but there’s word the Rangers are smartening up and trying to trade some of these schmohawks. So what can we expect from Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden for fantasy baseball in 2009?

More than Josh Bard, if they get the job, but right now Laird and Salty are blocking them.  Don’t fret, young Razzballian, there’s still some hope. Detroit needs a catcher. Maybe one of these catchers ends up there. There’s talk Laird is going to Motown. Then there’s Blalock who is a back scratch away from pulling a Kotchman. Maybe one of these catchers goes to 1st base. The one that fits the first baseman mitt the most is Max Ramirez.  Unfortunately, he’s a bit iffy as a fantasy starter if he gets moved to a corner. He’ll be a sleeper in keeper leagues to watch in 2009, nothing more.  I’d rank him fourth behind the other four as of right now. If Laird and Salty are traded, Ramirez, like bran, becomes number two. So who’s number one?

Taylor Teagarden. Let’s assume for the moment he’s the starter in 2009. Now no one, not even Teagarden, thinks he’s the .800+ slugging catcher we saw in September of 2008. Though he does have pop that will only be aided by Arlington’s hot summer and he’s shown his ability to take a walk. His average in 2008 was a bit of a mirage. He’s closer to a 20/60/.260 hitter with a full-time job. Think Mike Crapoli with a slightly better average.  With the right offseason breaks, Taylor Teagarden could be the Rangers catcher in 2009. Granted, he needs a lot of breaks. In AL-Only and two catcher leagues, I’m grabbing him late with the hope he somehow emerges from spring training with the job. In most mixed leagues, Teagarden’s not worth a draft pick. Yet.  But if he lands the job, get ready to pounce.

UPDATE:

Gerald Laird – Was traded to the Tigers ten hours after I posted this. You’re welcome, Rangers.  Let me know what else I can advise on. That trade makes the catching order Salty, Teagarden then Ramirez. Now if Blalock gets injured, Salty goes to 1st base and Teagarden catches 75% of the games. As Naughty By Nature once sang, “That shizz is written on a kitten.” I’d now draft Salty in 10 team mixed leagues some time after the top catchers are gone and grab Teagarden late in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. In AL-Only leagues that draft prior to spring training, they both need to be owned. Just don’t rush to grab Teagarden. He still needs Blalock to get injured. Which means as soon as Blalock is allowed to leave his hermetically-sealed bubble, it’s on like Donkey Kong.

Um, dur. Yeah, of course. What was I just saying?  He’s the real deal. The butter on your biscuit, the mustard on your hot dog, the donkadonk on your badonkadonk. He’s wrestled with an average WHIP but he has a nice K:BB and doesn’t give up many home runs. In the last year, he improved his walk rate… Oh my, I almost put myself to sleep. Let’s say this, Carrasco can be a difference maker in 2009 like Volquez was in 2008. The real hangup, will he be pitching in Lehigh Valley or Philly in 2009?

The Phils promoted Kyle Kendrick from Double-A last year and he was hardly a doughy bagel. Pursue Carlos Carrasco in your 2009 fantasy drafts. All of them. Hold on, I’m bring out the caps — ALL OF THEM. Now don’t make go get the exclamation mark. If Carrasco doesn’t make the club out of spring training, he’ll soon be there and will make an impact. If he does make the team but only as a long man out of the bullpen, he will soon be starting. Don’t worry about what the Phils will be saying out of spring training. Remember Evan Longoria in 2008. In March, the Rays said they wouldn’t bring him up just yet. Then he won the Rookie of the Year. (And I’m not talking about a DVD of that bad Gary Busey movie.)

In almost 100 games started in his minors career, James McDonald has the stats of a capable starter: 3.41/1.20 and a 9.74 K/9 ratio. He took most of his beatings in Single-A and Rookie Ball. In Double- and Triple-A last year, he had an ERA of 3.26 and a 7-4 record.  Then when the NLDS rolled around, McDonald found more than partially hydrogenated soybean oil in his Happy Meal when he was added to the roster by Joe Torre, even if it was just for middle relief. McDonald’s starter status in 2009 will be contingent on offseason free agent signings and the Dodgers are in too big of a market to simply rely on a rookie pitcher. But if they are stuck with McDonald, it might not be such a bad place to be. James McDonald could be a capable fifth starter for the Dodgers, a must grab in NL-Only leagues and a late round mixed league sleeper — recognize!

The short answer is no. The long answer is nooooooo. The Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington said that McCutchen won’t be getting the starting job out of spring training. If McCutchen were playing for the Marlins, he’d prolly be going on his third year in the majors.  In all fairness, there’s only room for one Mc in center (much to the chagrin of anyone named Seamus in the Pirates organization), and McLouth is doing just fine. There’s a good chance McCutchen will simply be refining his tools in the minors in 2009 and if he gets the call it won’t be until rosters expand in September. Unless something changes in spring training, McCutchen is only a very deep sleeper in 2009 NL-Only leagues and a good, late draft pick in keeper leagues.

When he was at Vanderbilt (Did you know Grey almost went there for undergrad? You did? Stalker!), Price was some kind of dynamo. Price’s numbers are those of legends. Then the Rays took him from High A to Double-A to Triple-A to the Majors in 2008 as they boosted his Frequent Flyer miles and primed him for 2009. Between those Minor League stops he went a cumulative 12-1/2.30 and 109/32 K/BB ratio in 19 starts. He suffered his only loss in his Triple-A debut. Not necessarily a terrific sign, but it might have been nerves. In 2009, I predict the Rays will try and get Price at least 20 starts. This could mean he starts the season in the bullpen and waits for an injury to a starter cough Kazmir cough. This will shake out more in spring training. If you’re drafting for 2009 before spring, grab Price like a third or fourth fantasy starter. Think Gallardo going into 2008. Yes, I used one of the biggest busts of 2008 on purpose because drafting Price means embracing risk. Anyway, Price should go in mixed leagues some time around draft pick 130 to 140. In AL-Only and keeper leagues, you obviously need to be much more aggressive.

Kila Ka’aihue is a Hawaiia’an mash machine, poi! I’d be through the roof for this doode if it wasn’t for the Royals boneheaded trade earlier this offseason for Jacobs, which reminds me– What do you get when you cross a team that insists on cutting its Major League low $20-something million payroll with a team that doesn’t understand it already has potentially four 1st basemen? You get the Marlins dealing Jacobs to the Royals, a team that has Shealy, Ka’aihue, Gload and Butler. Watch closely to see if Ka’aihue lands somewhere else that can make use of a guy who had an OPS of 1.085 last year in the minors and 37 HRs in 401 at-bats. A guy that hit a home run in almost every third game in Triple-A should prolly get a chance somewhere. You would think the peasant Royals could find room, but they need to maintain the lack of integrity in their product — it’s the Royals way!  If Ka’aihue is sharing time, he’s nothing but an AL-Only sleeper. If he can find a starting spot, he’s mixed league material.

SAGNOF. That’s why, faithful Razzball reader. Gardner has the power of Juan Pierre, and the legs of him too. In 1448 minor league at-bats, Gardner had an OBP of .389 while averaging about a steal every 3rd game. When he moved to the majors, he still averaged a steal every 3rd game, which is a lot of steals if he can play 120 games. His OBP didn’t carry over from the minors, but he’s still young and has time to improve. He could find himself leading off for the Yanks if everything breaks right for him, which would lead to a lot of steals and runs. Gardner is a perfect endgame target in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues.

Travis Snider September callup in 2008 showed that the Jays are excited about his prospects and they’ve committed to giving him a chance to make the club out of spring training. In the minors, Snider did exactly what should be expected of him in 2009 — home runs and Ks. In 2009, I think Snider will be a bit of a batting average liability, but I think he can evetually move past that. If he gets the OF job out of spring training, Snider could be a cheap source of 20 home run power. Initially, I see him splitting time with Lind and, if he can get off to a hot start, it should mean he’s here to stay. In AL-Only leagues, he’s absolutely draftable. In mixed leagues, I’d be a bit more cautious, but I could definitely see a late round flier taken on him, especially in deep leagues.

In 61 games and 208 at-bats of Double-A, Wieters went 12/51/.365. Zoinks! The numbers get even more delicious the further you dig, rookie prospector. An OBP of .460 — an OPS of 1085. Okay, now that you prolly want to have Wieters’s baby like Arod would carry Madonna’s, time to bring you back to earth. No, Earth is polluted! Sorry, but Mike Piazza and Geovany Soto are the exceptions to the rule for rookie catchers. In 2008, Geovany Soto went 66/23/86/.285. While those are great numbers for a rookie and incredible numbers for a rookie catcher, they are still only 66/23/86/.285. Those numbers only placed him 91st on our player rater while ranking 5th on the top 20 catchers for 2008 list. So what I’m saying is, even the best rookie catchers are only so good for fantasy baseball. Bill James projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs in 2009. You don’t argue with Bill James — you disagree then Bill waves his pinkie finger and you fall to the ground, temporarily paralyzed — but 24 home runs is very optimistic. (In all fairness, James’s numbers do change depending on expected playing time.)  If Wieters makes the club out of spring training and he seems to be handling major league pitching, my recommendation is to pursue Wieters as a late round sleeper. But just remember, for every Geovany Soto, there’s always a Saltamochachino.

KEEP

Dallas McPherson – Hey, it’s Marlins Day! Hey, Marlins Day, say hi to your mother for me. When the Marlins GM was asked how they are going to make up for the power they lost with the Jacobs trade, you know what he said? Hire Canseco as their strength and conditioning coach? No, silly. He said, McPherson would see playing time at 3rd. He’s got piz-op.

Matt Holliday – This might seem obvious to some, but I’ve heard some people panicking over these swirling Holliday trade rumors.  If Holliday does leave Coors, his value takes a hit but there’s time to cross that bridge. With the Phils or Mets, he’ll still have solid lineups around him. We’ll figure out his fantasy worth if he is indeed traded, until then hold onto him.

DON’T KEEP

Rafael Furcal – I’m sure someone will overpay this offseason for Furcal’s services. (I’ve heard the A’s are interested. When did they come into money? Did Billy Beane’s rich Auntie die?) Furcal pulled a Kotchman in 2008 and I wouldn’t bank on him bouncing back in 2009. Maybe Beane just likes the idea of an injury-prone shortstops — See Crosby, Bobby.