Fantasy Baseball Advice

A commenter back in April or May or one of them spring months told us that Ryan Ludwick went by The Queen’s Assassin when he was down in the minors. The Queen’s Assassin was a nod to Ludwig from The Naked Gun — “I must kill the Queen…”  You know what having a Minor League nickname means? It means doooode was in the minors forever. Long enough to watch The Last Emperor. In 2008, Ludwick went from minor league journeyman to a late blooming flower.  Or some shizz romantic.  So what will Ludwick do in 2009? 80/32/95/.265. What, too direct? You were expecting me to beat around the bush? Nah, kid. That ain’t how Grey do. Bee-tee-dubya, Grey does talk about himself in the third person like Suede from Project Runway (he was robbed!). Ludwick’s average was a mirage, his power is for real. He can kill it like TJ Lavin. So if you want Andruw Jones circa 2002, The Queen’s Assassin would be a keeper for 2009. Unless! (Don’t you hate unlesses?) Unless Pujols is injured or elects for some sort offseason surgery, then we would need to reevaluate. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Josh Hamilton – Yeah, he’s injury-prone. And anime is only understood by the stoned or schizophrenic. So what’s your point?

Carlos Lee – This wasn’t a career-ending injury. Doode’s pinkie was hurt. Chillax and keep him.

DON’T KEEP

Magglio Ordonez – He’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old, 20 home run, .300 average hitter. One could argue that Magglio Ordonez is a better bet than Ludwick to be productive, but one could also argue OJ’s innocence. Doesn’t make it right.

Ryan Garko – Okay, V-Mart’s hurt so we’re going to play you and see what you have.  14 home runs in almost 500 at-bats? Hmm… No, thanks. We’d call you Matt Stairs Jr. but, you sir, are no Matt Stairs.

Or as someone with the first name Howie would call him, Howie Shmendrick. (In case, Sandy Koufax isn’t reading this to you, I’ll run down some baseball Yiddish. Erick and Willie Aybar are mishpochah, Manny Ramirez is meshuge, and Kendrick is a shmendrick.) Let’s breakdown the MI food chain. Placido Polanco is yawnstipating. Jeff Keppinger is Blanco Polanco. Howie Kendrick is wack. This year Kendrick finished with 43/3/37/.306/11. Not very impressive numbers, but he was injured for the better part of the year, only registering 340 at-bats. The problem is, Howie Kendrick is injury prone — Oops, I said it! — and may only get 340 at-bats in 2009, too. Now Kendrick does hit for a high average (In. Expli. Ca. Bly. Since he walked only 12 times all year), but it’s proving to be a very hollow average so far in his Major League career. He hasn’t sniffed double digit power yet and his speed is fine by a Carlos Lee standards, but as a light-hitting 2nd baseman, he better be stealing more than 11 a year — injury or not. So, each keeper league is obviously different, but my recommendation is to not keep Howie Kendrick.  Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team:

KEEP

Max Scherzer – Jobacum’s already been covered in a Scherzer Keeper post, but I have news to update. According to the Diamondbacks, Scherzer will only be a starter from here on out. To keep the Yiddish theme going, no more putzing around for Scherzer in middle relief. Mazel tov! If that news causes you to have an erection for longer than four hours, it’s understandable. So far, Scherzer has looked extremely sharp in the Arizona Fall League.

Delmon Young – Maybe it’s his bravado, maybe it’s his attitude, maybe they’re the same things. Either way, I feel Alive with Pleasure like a Newport anticipating what Delmon can do in 2009. Anyone who could hit 30 home runs and steal 20 should get you excited.

Joba Chamberlain – Joba Rules say he is ‘officially’ going to be a starter in 2009. This is according to Hankenstein, Cashman, Girardi, Joba and Penny Marshall. This will ‘officially’ change seventeen times during the offseason.

DON’T KEEP

Mark DeRosa – Do you know how fast a .280/20/80 2nd baseman loses his value? Ask Mark Ellis.

Jayson Werth – Werth had a good year, no doubt. Twenty-twenty outfielder who hits .273 has value in all leagues. What about an outfielder who hits 15 home runs, steals 10 and hits .260? That’s like Randy Winn with dysentery.

On the Greek isle of Fantasia Baseballikis they have a proverb, “Never give up on a fantasy baseball player until he reaches full maturity and never spit in a woman’s face unless her mustache is on fire.” Let’s tackle the first half first, shall we? In 2008, Marakakis went 106/20/87/.306/10. These numbers won’t necessarily blow you away, until you realize in 2009 Markakis will only be 25 years old. Yes, he’s still ascending the escalator of Fantasy Baseball Worth. Hopefully he won’t get off until he reaches 2nd round value. His splits are promising. Against lefties, he hit .297, .310 vs. righties, .282/.330 Home/Away splits, almost even on Day/Night splits and .301 Pre-All-Star break and .313 Post. His 2nd half steals are a concern, as he stole only one base as opposed to nine steals in the first half. Maybe he only steals five next year, or maybe he steals 15. (Any player whose game is not steals can’t be relied on to ever steal more than 15.) The aspect of Markakis’s game that really needs to step up is his power. As of right now, I’d hope for 30 home runs, but wouldn’t expect more than 25 in 2009. So why am I suggesting you keep Markakis for 2009? His power is still developing and his walks are up. Throw in a five tools skill set and you have the makings of a great one. I am Sparkakis! As for the 2nd half of that aforementioned Greek proverb, it’s a good rule of thumb, but make sure you’re not spitting Ouza. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

KEEP

Alexei Ramirez – He’s a premenopausal Alfonso Soriano.

Hunter Pence – The dealer’s showing 25 HRs, 10 steals and a .275 average. That’s a push.

DON’T KEEP

Ryan Doumit – Doumit ranked #4 on the top 20 catcher list for 2008. You know what? He could come in number one next year, I still don’t think you should keep him. He’s not going to be overvalued at the drafts so you can get him back if you want and he’s injury-prone. Reggie Roby his ass.

David DeJesus – If he stays healthy, he could be Yunel Escobar. I’ll take one small bleh with a side order of bleh-bleh.

Guess what, ya’ll? Carl Crawford is going to hit 40 home runs and steal, like, 60 bases and hit over .350. Carl Crawford will also win the Roberto Clemente Award and the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award for his relief work off and on the field. Or so went the many years of ‘pert predictions for Carl Crawford. Then each season came and went and Crawford’s respective home run tallies look like this: 11, 15, 18, 11 and 8. Not exactly the development of power that people expected. (Show you care, take ‘roids!) So can Crawford be relied on as a keeper? Definitely. (Of course, depending on the circumstances.) Will Crawford develop the power that has been lusted after for so long? Doesn’t look that way. 20 home runs might be his ceiling, but ten to fifteen home runs with forty steals gives him solid keeper value. Now for this week’s keeper post I’m going to look at some guys that are more or less Carl Crawford. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

Psyche! Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment. Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell. Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday. As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

KEEP

Jacoby Ellsbury – Profiles as a Cheap Carl Crawford, which can also be expressed as, “No way, Longoria! You ate so much more than me. We’re not splitting the check evenly.”

Matt Kemp – Can be what the ‘perts always thought Carl Crawford would be, so Matt Kemp is a Best Case Scenario Carl Crawford — a number three hitter who hits twenty-five home runs and steals forty bases. Otherwise known as “Carl Crawford wearing his big boy pants.”

Alexis Rios – Rios performed almost exactly like an Underperforming Carl Crawford. Though next year, Rios could easily produce more home runs and less steals making him a candidate for the Looked Like an Underperforming Carl Crawford Last Year and This Year He Looks Like Corey Hart. (If you don’t have to read that last sentence more than once, then you’ve smoked too much pot in your life.)

DON’T KEEP

Ichiro Suzuki – A Japanese Carl Crawford. I don’t think Ichiro will be completely unusable, but he stole 9 bases in the 2nd half this year and hit 3 home runs. Imagine if he hits ten home runs, steals twenty-five and hits .320 next year, would that be something you’d be interested in?

Milton Bradley – An Angry, Injury-Prone Carl Crawford that will stick a hot poker into your eye if you say anything bad about him, then he will burn his little pinkie with that same poker and miss a month of the season without ever going on the DL.

Your man, Grey, loves a piece of cheap tail like Ice Cube loves a nappy dugout. (In fact, I might love cheap tail more. This is totally debatable between Ice Cube and I. Anytime you want to grab a podium, Cube, and go word for word. Bring. It.) If you’re in a keeper league (or any league for that matter), you probably got Shoppach for the price of a Capri Sun with a missing straw, but you’re probably thinking, “Well, this year was nice. How about I dunk him back into the free agent pool cause he’s a catcher and a fluky one at that?” Yo, check yo’self before ya wreck yo’self, fool.  “So you’re saying Shoppach’s a dream keeper?” Nah, this shizz is neither black nor white. It’s Grey, son. This year isn’t as fluky as you might think. In his last full year of Triple-A, Shoppach showed power hitting 26 home runs. His current .270 average is a bit fluky though. That will come down a bit and with Victor Martinez lurking on the team, Shoppach could be the recipient of a quick hook in ’09. All of this portends to less value for Shoppach. Not to mention, keeping catchers is a risky and not usually a fruitful exercise. So why keep Shoppach? Because a $1 catcher who could easily hit 20 HRs is a bargain, no matter how you slice your keeper pie. Anyway, here’s some more keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

KEEP

Nate McLouth – Was not a Hirame (that’s a whitefish in a sushi bar, usually fluke). McLouth is a solid bet next year for 20/20/.270. We shall call him, Lastings McHunter.

Chad Billingsley – (<–Early 2009 Cy Young pick. Then again I picked Bedard and Peavy for this year. Hmmm… Anyway!) Billingsley has about a K/IP, he’s cut his walks, he plays in a cavernous caverny cavern thing, he plays a majority of his games against the Padres, Giants and the Diamondhacks, his team should provide offense for wins, he’s going into his third year in ’09 which is usually the time starters come into their own and he’s only going to be 24 at the start of 2009. Holy heffin’ hey! I will be gushing further this offseason, but right now I have to change my sock.

DON’T KEEP

Jose Valverde – As with anything in fantasy baseball, there’s a time and a place for anything. Is there a time and a place to keep Valverde? Perhaps. I’m having a hard time deciding when that time and place would be. If your other choices are Willy Aybar and Freddy Sanchez? Then, yeah, I keep this schmohawk. If you think keeping a closer who could explode at any moment is a good move, then I got a $400 million dollar bridge to sell you.

James Loney – In the preseason, I was briefly excited about this schmohawk. Why? I haven’t the foggiest. Maybe when I go over my 2009 predictions in the offseason someone can say, “Hey, Grey, Mark Grace looks at Loney and says Loney looks a lot like me, but with less power. And that’s me reminding you!” (BTW, The Hardball Times took a look back at first basemen and used our rankings to compare and contrast. Color me awesome. We will also be taking a look back in the offseason to compare and contrast ourselves against ourselves. Will the mirror be kind? Stay tuned…)