Fantasy Baseball Advice

Schadenfreude has me tuned to The Pickup Artist every Sunday night. C’mon, Simeon, neg the target! Schadenfreude had me floating on a cloud for two days last week after I saw pictures from an old high school buddy’s wedding. He got fat and bald! Ha! I’m in shape and I have my hair!  So schadenfreude should have me thrilled to see Utley with an injury. Unfortunately, Chase Utley is different. Chase’s injury leaves me with no joy. You know how you use words when you’re writing that you would never say in real life? Well, I’m unabashedly a fan of Chase Utley, and I don’t think I’ve ever said “unabashedly” in real life. This Buick is unabashedly economical! But that’s how much I like Utley, I can’t express my love for him in words I normally use.  Is this because I know Utley loves him some hookers? That can’t hurt, but it’s more than that. It’s more than his slicked-back, I’m-Tom-Cruise-in-The-Color-of-Money douchebag hair and his cooler-than-Eckstein hustle.  It’s… Maybe it’s his love for hookers. Either way, his injury could have him out until June of 2009. If you’re keeping him with a price tag higher than $25, you really need to reevaluate your Chase Utley keeper situation, right? Well, when he broke his hand in 2007, he bounced back quicker than anyone thought was possible. Can he do the same with this hip injury? He’s got the mettle. (There I go again using a word I would never use in everyday conversation.)

Hey, yo, Bo knows this and Bo knows that, but Bo don’t know Jack because Bo don’t know when Utley’s going to be back… So yo, yo, what’s the best case scenario? Everyone seems to think the injury to Chase’s hip will keep him out of any baseball-related activities until at least mid- to late-March aka the end of 2009 Spring Training. Let’s give him two weeks later to be safe. Then he needs at least two weeks to get up to speed. That means we’ll see Utley at the beginning of May at the earliest. This wouldn’t kill Utley’s production for 2009, but it might hurt the perception of his value in 2009. So, for the first time in a while, Utley could actually come as a bargain. I imagine he’ll fall to the late second or third rounds of early 2009 drafts. If you’re not drafting until March, then there’s a good chance we’ll have a better idea when exactly Utley will return and his value will either rise or fall. Right now, I want Utley in the second round.  Remember in the preseason of 2008 when ‘perts were comparing Pujols to Jim Abbott? Remember what that did to his draft value? Yeah, and he just won the NL MVP. For keepers, it depends on your situation, but I’d still look to hold onto Utley for 2009. He’ll still give you more than 99% of the other 2nd basemen, even if he misses a month. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Carlos Marmol – When I went over the Gregg trade for fantasy, I mentioned that I thought Gregg might become the closer because Piniella might pull some boneheaded “experience matters” maneuver. That’s not to say Marmol won’t have value or won’t get plenty of saves, whether he has the job officially or not. Don’t forget, Gregg is garbage.  Even with Wood admirably holding down the closer job in Chicago last year, Marmol still came in 13th on the list of top 20 closers for 2008.

DON’T KEEP

Joe Saunders – If keeping Saunders causes you to have an erection longer than thirty seconds, you should see a doctor.

If you don’t know the name Matt Wieters, you will. No, he’s not the guy that just moved in next door that feeds pigeons, pigeons that then sit around all day on the telephone wires and crap all over your car. Though I do know that guy, and he simultaneously sucks and blows. Matt Wieters is not that guy, he’s the Minor League rookie catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. He’s the rookie catcher that could make a Geovany Soto-like impact on fantasy leagues in 2009. He’s the rookie catcher that is being compared to Mike Piazza and not because Belle and Sebastian wrote a song about him. He’s also the rookie catcher that hasn’t played above Double-A. So why all the hype about Wieters? Can he help your fantasy baseball team in 2009?

In 61 games and 208 at-bats of Double-A, Wieters went 12/51/.365. Zoinks! The numbers get even more delicious the further you dig, rookie prospector. An OBP of .460 — an OPS of 1085. Okay, now that you prolly want to have Wieters’s baby like Arod would carry Madonna’s, time to bring you back to earth. No, Earth is polluted! Sorry, but Mike Piazza and Geovany Soto are the exceptions to the rule for rookie catchers. In 2008, Geovany Soto went 66/23/86/.285. While those are great numbers for a rookie and incredible numbers for a rookie catcher, they are still only 66/23/86/.285. Those numbers only placed him 91st on our player rater while ranking 5th on the top 20 catchers for 2008 list. So what I’m saying is, even the best rookie catchers are only so good for fantasy baseball. Bill James projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs in 2009. You don’t argue with Bill James — you disagree then Bill waves his pinkie finger and you fall to the ground, temporarily paralyzed — but 24 home runs is very optimistic. (In all fairness, James’s numbers do change depending on expected playing time.)  If Wieters makes the club out of spring training and he seems to be handling major league pitching, my recommendation is to pursue Wieters as a late round sleeper. But just remember, for every Geovany Soto, there’s always a Saltamochachino.

If Sergio Valente were a person and not just a clothing brand name and if he played fantasy baseball and owned Garrett Atkins in 2008, he might’ve said, “Garrett Atkins, you looks like craps. You know that?” (Valente talks with a bit of an accent.) Valente was right with his fictitious assessment. Atkins did “looks” like “craps” in 2008. But 2008 was sooooo last year like Joaquin Phoenix’s acting career. Let’s look at 2009. Can Atkins turn around on a fastball in 2009? Can Atkins stick in the third spot in the Rockies order now that Holliday’s gone? Will Atkins even stay with the Rockies? Does Atkins have too much pepper on his paprikash? Not to repeat, but to answer. Atkins numbers for 2008 look like this 86/21/99/.286/1 or as I like to call those stats, “Injured Scott Rolen Numbers.” But what about Atkins in 2009? Can’t a brother get a second chance? I suppose. (God, knows I’m willing to give Alex Rios a second chance in 2009.) As I said in our Fantasy Baseball Forums, “Atkins is a 17/80 player outside of Coors and he could get traded. There’s lots of third basemen that would be an upgrade over him even if he stays in Coors. He’s more the player he was in 2008 than he was in 2006.”  And that’s me quoting me! I go on to talk about how his OPS keeps dipping and his Away OPS is the “craps.” In certain situations, Atkins may be a keeper for you (think real deep leagues where you have limited choices), but, for most, Atkins is not a fantasy baseball keeper for 2009. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Aaron Hicks – This is a very deep league keeper, but I just had to write his name. Aaron Hicks…. Look at that, I just wrote it again. It may not be until 2010 or even 2011, but in deep leagues that holds minor leaguers, Aaron Hicks is a keeper. He’s going to be a young Daryl Strawberry (minus the coke), according to Baseball America. (They didn’t mention the coke part.)

Logan Morrison – Logan Morrison is a raw, powerful first baseman. Member how the Marlins shipped off Jacobs to make room for Cantu? Well, don’t expect Cantu to stay around that long. His salary might go above one million at some point. Marlins have no problem promoting people so keep your eye on Morrison for 2009, and, in deep keeper leagues, he’s a good one to hold onto.

DON’T KEEP

Michael Young – As far as empty average doodes go, Young isn’t that bad. Then again, a sudden heart attack isn’t a bad way to die either, but you’re still dead if you catch my drift.

Here’s another 2009 Fantasy Baseball Keeper post so that could mean only one thing — it’s Friday! Before we get into today’s keeper post, page yourself to the front desk so your boss thinks you’re doing something. Nice. Okay, now that John Q. Walmart is out of your hair, let’s look at the Marlins centerfielder, Cameron Maybin. Is he Hanley Ramirez in the OF? That would turn your fantasy baseball team up a notch, wouldn’t it? What, you can’t get behind an Emeril reference? Whatevs. Maybin is an unrefined five-tool stud. Sorta like a young Burt Reynolds. You want speed? Yeah, Maybin’s got that. As Josh Hamilton may have once said at gunpoint, “I swear to you, he has speed!” Maybin could end up leading off for the Marlins, pushing Hanley to the three hole. This would be ideal for Maybin’s fantasy owners. Yo, G.A., Maybin have any power? Yup, but it’s still developing. In 2009, fifteen to twenty home runs may be (hehe) too much to ask from Maybin, but there’s a chance that he could be a 10/50 guy, much like Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008. Past 2009, Maybin could become a 25/50 guy or Hanley in the outfield. That makes Maybin one of the top keepers for 2009. Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Dallas McPherson – Hey, it’s Marlins Day! Hey, Marlins Day, say hi to your mother for me. When the Marlins GM was asked how they are going to make up for the power they lost with the Jacobs trade, you know what he said? Hire Canseco as their strength and conditioning coach? No, silly. He said, McPherson would see playing time at 3rd. He’s got piz-op.

Matt Holliday – This might seem obvious to some, but I’ve heard some people panicking over these swirling Holliday trade rumors.  If Holliday does leave Coors, his value takes a hit but there’s time to cross that bridge. With the Phils or Mets, he’ll still have solid lineups around him. We’ll figure out his fantasy worth if he is indeed traded, until then hold onto him.

DON’T KEEP

Rafael Furcal – I’m sure someone will overpay this offseason for Furcal’s services. (I’ve heard the A’s are interested. When did they come into money? Did Billy Beane’s rich Auntie die?) Furcal pulled a Kotchman in 2008 and I wouldn’t bank on him bouncing back in 2009. Maybe Beane just likes the idea of an injury-prone shortstops — See Crosby, Bobby.

You just lost the Word Series. Curl up into a ball and cry. Aw, baby’s crying. There’s no crying in fantasy baseball! Actually, there is. Prolly more than in real baseball. I carried a hanky around during every Harang start in 2008. Wait, this is about Longoria. Longoria a keeper? As they say in Fargo, you betcha. He missed two weeks in the beginning of the season because the Rays were dragging their feet, then he missed a month at the end with a broken wrist. I know where your hesitation might lie — the Derrek-Lee-broken-wrist-loss-of-all-power factor. Luckily, Longoria’s wrist injury came in a place that should heal fine and have no lingering effects, according to the Disabled List Informer. The power he displayed when he returned from injury and in the postseason backs this up.  Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Joey Devine – People thought Brian Dunkleman and Ryan Seacrest were both necessary. They weren’t. Watch as Devine Seacrests Ziegler. Or will it be Ziegler Dunklemaning Devine? Don’t you hate when your own shizz confuses you? Hmm… Maybe none of that makes sense. Well, as the Talking Heads said, Stop Making Sense. (BTW, this winter will be the winter of Devine. I’m going to push him hard — not literally that would be battery.)

Stephen Drew – Sorry, 2009 will be known as the Winter of Devine and Drew. Can you feel the excitement? I can’t hear you. No, really I can’t. You’re reading and I’m typing. What would I hear?

DON’T KEEP

Brad Ziegler – This shizz will become more clear when 2009 spring training starts, but I highly doubt Ziegler is the closer in 2009. So if you must make a decision right now, don’t keep him. He’s getting Dunkleman’d! Hmm… Still not making sense.

Miguel Tejada – Since I put a young potential SS keeper above, I figured I’d put Te-nada here, although no one’s really even considering keeping this schmohawk. I know that.