Fantasy Baseball Advice

Sometime in 2009 it finally clicked in the collective Pirates brain that they needed to stop playing for now since they weren’t playing well for now anyway.  And with that kernel of “ah-ha,” the Pirates sent McLousy off the plank and ushered in Andrew McCutchen, The Dread Pirate.  The Dread Pirate proceeded to climb to the top of the sinking Pirate ship’s mast, tore a string from the Jolly Roger and swashbuckled his way into the hearts and minds of his fantasy owners and the seven Pirate season ticket holders.  Ahoy, Jonesy, drive me in after I steal this base. Gar.  And get me some mead, Ol’ Chumbucket! That’s you, Steven Pearce. You are Ol’ Chumbucket! Argh, don’t make me explain it. Yes, The Dread Pirate brought life where there wasn’t any for 2009, but what about in 2010 fantasy baseball, more of the same booty?

In 433 at-bats last year, McCutchen hit 12 homers with 22 steals while batting .286.  Below those numbers, we see a guy who consistently hits the ball on the ground more than in the air in 2009 and 2008 (in Triple-A, his GB vs. FB percentages were 49.4 vs. 32.2).  This is good for a guy who relies on his speed to get on base.  The power he showed last year may be slightly fluky.  After all, he did hit 8 homers in August, which seems extreme for him.  I.e., I wouldn’t expect a huge gain in homers in 2010.  Maybe 15 homers max.  His walk rate was a bit high last year, but he did show a good eye for when he should/should not swing.  With his speed and 15 homer power, he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper.  Think 80/14/65/.275/35.  For redraft leagues, The Dread Pirate can be someone who can provide more value than his draft spot, potentially taking a jump into the top 20 outfielders for 2010… Top 20 outfielders for 2010.  Aye, me parrot concurs.

Colby Rasmus goes by the nickname Razz or Razzle-Dazzle, which should make him a favorite here at Razzball, but there’s something pricky about him that I don’t like.  Might be the name, Colby.  It sounds like a total douche name, like a character’s name in a Bret Easton Ellis novel.  (Speaking of douche, I have two things to say.  First, I went to the original Dollar Store the other day.  No, not some weird field trip.  Like, “Hey, honey, you wanna go check out the very first Dollar Store? There’s tours at 12 and 2.  Oddly enough, not at 1.”  I was walking by it and I went in to grab a Gatorade.  The store was extremely small and there’s a giant one across the street.  So I ask them why don’t they close up this stankhole of dollar-priced items.  They tell me it’s the first store ever.  Yeah, it’s a real historic landmark.  Put up a plaque and add this to the World Famous Skyline Tour.  “On the right is the Hollywood Sign.  On the left is where they sold the very first discontinued-candy-that-might-get-you-sick-but-at-least-it’s-only-a-dollar.”  So what do I see in the dollar store, besides the aforementioned discontinued candy?  Summer’s Eve Douche.  I tell you this because I’ve been trying to think of what kind of woman buys douche at the Dollar Store for three days now.  I want you to be scarred too.  So there.  Okay, second thing, doesn’t it seem like the word “douche” should have an accent?)  Anyway, the real question is, will Colby Rasmus have any fantasy value in 2009?

Okay, I lied.  The real-real question is, will Rasmus win the starting job in 2009 for the Cards?  He might.  In February of 2008, the Cards GM said Rasmus will be in the majors in 2008.  A funny thing happened on the way to The Gateway to the West.  Rasmus sucked down a big bottle of Mediocre in the spring of 2008 and then went down with a knee injury in July.  He skipped out on winter ball, choosing to do his own strength and conditioning program (Beer and German pretzels?).  The good news is his knee should be healed in time for the spring of 2009.  Rasmus still has the skills of someone who can run, homer and strikeout with the best of them. To give you an idea of what to expect, if you’re showing Colby Rasmus and the dealer shows Krispie Young, that’s a push. His value could go up in the April, if he leaves spring training with a starting OF job.  In NL-Only and keeper leagues, you should pursue Colby Rasmus right now as a late round sleeper.  In mixed leagues, wait to see if he has the job in spring training.  If he does, then you should be buying in too.

Jason Heyward, besides having the surname of a 1930s matinee idol, has the mitts of a Yeti and the sturdies (<– that’s legs) of Frank Thomas.  His man gams are 117% oak.  You thought Jay Bruce could fight crime? Heyward just saved your life and you didn’t even know you were in danger. Look over your left shoulder — quickly!  See that shadow shrinking out of the room?  That was Heyward.  He’s now going to Ireland to sing harmony with that Once guy.  So being a globetrotting, harmonizing, crime fighting love child of a Yeti and Frank Thomas is all well-and-good, but can the the Braves outfield prospect, Jason Heyward, help you in fantasy baseball leagues in 2009?

Nope.  But… You said he was Yeti-like! Sorry, random italicized voice, it’s a bummer. I know.  So you’re probably thinking to yourself why am I even talking about him? (Yes, I can read your mind. Spooky, huh?)  Firstly, when I decided to go over 2009 fantasy rookies — Wait, you don’t need to know it from the jump, as the kids said in the early naughts. Fast forward to my reasoning… Twenty-seventhly, Heyward is going to be something special probably as soon as 2010.  This is a wake up call for all keeper leagues, NL-Only and mixed ones.  You know all that power and speed you love about The Uptons?  Heyward has that in duckets.  He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.  You want a prediction limb? Heyward goes 25/15 in his first full season with the Braves and he invents a Snuggie that doesn’t look quite as monk-like.

While regurgigating Jobacum, I mentioned Gamel is a lot like Ryan Braun. All hit, no field. In Single-A ball in 2007, Gamel made 53 errors in 128 games.  In that post, I said that he plays 3rd like Jenny McCarthy at a celebrity All-Star game, but I think I was overestimating his glove work.  Kenny Mayne might be a better comparison.  Last year Gamel cut his errors to 30, but still led Double-A with the most errors by a third baseman.  Oh Gamel, you’ve done it again!  If he could just get to the big leagues as a third baseman, his bat will be one to own in fantasy.  But can he help your fantasy baseball team in 2009?

Bill James projects a full-time Mat Gamel in 2009 hitting 18 home runs and over .300 in 150 games.  I think that’s being too conservative on the power, but too generous on the games played.  If Gamel gets a full-time gig out of spring training, I think we could see 27/80/.300 and 40 errors.  The Brewers also realized Gamel’s glove isn’t ready for the majors and now have in place the third base blahtoon of Mike Lamb and Bill Hall.  Gamel is probably destined for the outfield, but the Brewers outfield is a bit crowded right now.  Gamel needs Corey Hart to tongue kiss Casey Kotchman and come down with a bad case of mono for Gamel to see any significant time in the Brewers outfield in 2009.  I’m sure the Brewers want Gamel to play 3rd; I’m almost positive Gamel wants to play 3rd, but inspiration meets perspiration meets no fielding ability, doesn’t add up to a major league 3rd baseman.  Unless the Brewers play Gamel in short left field in front of Braun, the glaring flaw in his defensive game makes him too much of a liability for the Brewers and too much for you, except in deep keeper leagues.

Back in September, I wrote about the Rangers catching situation in a post titled, “Rangers Decide Catching Wins Championships:”

Gerald Laird? Yeah, he’s serviceable. Jarrod Saltimbocca? He was enticing enough to get from the Braves and he’s wonderful with broccoli rabe. Taylor Teagarden? (Has six) HR(s) in (the last) 12 games. Before you rush out to pickup Teagarden, see 1/18 of a centimeter after this period. Max Ramirez, the future at catcher for the Rangers, was called up on Monday night. This gives the Rangers three promising catchers, a fourth usable catcher and no pitchers. Let’s see, the last three World Champions have had Varitek, Pierzynski and one of The Flying Molina Bros. Usable pieces, for sure, but not exactly the cogs that made the offense work. Earth to the Rangers, wtf?

And you can add Carlos Ruiz to that illustrious group of championship catchers. So, is Nolan Ryan trying to make amends for something he said about the catchers he worked with? Did someone roofie this organization’s common sense? Seriously, WTF?! I wasn’t even going to cover these Rangers rookie catcher schmohawks because there’s too many of them for any of them to have any fantasy worth, but there’s word the Rangers are smartening up and trying to trade some of these schmohawks. So what can we expect from Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden for fantasy baseball in 2009?

More than Josh Bard, if they get the job, but right now Laird and Salty are blocking them.  Don’t fret, young Razzballian, there’s still some hope. Detroit needs a catcher. Maybe one of these catchers ends up there. There’s talk Laird is going to Motown. Then there’s Blalock who is a back scratch away from pulling a Kotchman. Maybe one of these catchers goes to 1st base. The one that fits the first baseman mitt the most is Max Ramirez.  Unfortunately, he’s a bit iffy as a fantasy starter if he gets moved to a corner. He’ll be a sleeper in keeper leagues to watch in 2009, nothing more.  I’d rank him fourth behind the other four as of right now. If Laird and Salty are traded, Ramirez, like bran, becomes number two. So who’s number one?

Taylor Teagarden. Let’s assume for the moment he’s the starter in 2009. Now no one, not even Teagarden, thinks he’s the .800+ slugging catcher we saw in September of 2008. Though he does have pop that will only be aided by Arlington’s hot summer and he’s shown his ability to take a walk. His average in 2008 was a bit of a mirage. He’s closer to a 20/60/.260 hitter with a full-time job. Think Mike Crapoli with a slightly better average.  With the right offseason breaks, Taylor Teagarden could be the Rangers catcher in 2009. Granted, he needs a lot of breaks. In AL-Only and two catcher leagues, I’m grabbing him late with the hope he somehow emerges from spring training with the job. In most mixed leagues, Teagarden’s not worth a draft pick. Yet.  But if he lands the job, get ready to pounce.

UPDATE:

Gerald Laird – Was traded to the Tigers ten hours after I posted this. You’re welcome, Rangers.  Let me know what else I can advise on. That trade makes the catching order Salty, Teagarden then Ramirez. Now if Blalock gets injured, Salty goes to 1st base and Teagarden catches 75% of the games. As Naughty By Nature was sang, “That shizz is written on a kitten.” I’d now draft Salty in 10 team mixed leagues some time after the top catchers are gone and grab Teagarden late in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. In AL-Only leagues that draft prior to spring training, they both need to be owned. Just don’t rush to grab Teagarden. He still needs Blalock to get injured. Which means as soon as Blalock is allowed to leave his hermetically-sealed bubble, it’s on like Donkey Kong.