For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players. They represent the estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For example, Albert Pujols’ 9.19 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.19 points more to the average team than an average 1B (closest player to ‘average 1B’ was Jorge Cantu). Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category – Pujols’ points are broken out as: 2.2 Runs, 2.1 HRs, 2.3 RBI, 1.0 SB, and 1.6 AVG.

2009 – Top 20 Point Shares

Our top 20 ended up with an even split of pitchers (9 SP/1 RP) and hitters with Zack Greinke taking top honors. You’ll see some similarities between the ESPN Player Rater and our Point Shares but we’ll point out two notable differences:

1) ESPN loves speedy players (is that why they employed Eric Young for more than a second?) – it generously credits SBs and doesn’t penalize weak HR/RBI. Where Crawford and Ellsbury are 5th and 6th overall and almost even with Braun in ESPN they are 17th and 21st in ours and over 2.5 points or $10 less valuable than Braun. I like SBs as much as the next fantasy player but Braun’s 113/32/114/20/.320 is going to help the average team a lot more than Crawford’s 96/15/68/60/.305. Take ESPN ranking of guys with high SBs with a grain of salt.

2) ESPN Puts Less Stock on Position Scarcity – Joe Mauer is #6 in our ranking vs. #17 in ESPN. Do you realize who the 4th most valuable catcher was in fantasy? Kurt Suzuki! Mauer’s stats for an OF would’ve qualified him for #17. As a Catcher, his stats were an easy top 10 value.

2009 – Top 20 Draft Values

In what should amount to no surprise to anyone who followed baseball in 2009, our Point Shares have Mark Reynolds as the #1 best value (using ESPN Average Draft Position). He wasn’t even drafted in many leagues yet ended up as the 15th most valuable fantasy player in the majors (according to Point Shares). 13 of the 20 best values are pitchers (9 SP, 4 RP) lending credence to the claim that pitchers are more unpredictable and more bargains may be available later in the draft.

Some Nostradamus awards go out to:
1) Sean Smith – the man behind CHONE. Let’s just say I was dubious when Javier Vazquez came up #2 using CHONE’s 2009. He ends up #7. Impressive.

2) Matthew Berry – It might’ve been an awkward interview we had with him last year but we asked for the best undervalued OF and he nailed it with Shin Soo-Choo.

3) Razzball. In my NL Blogger draft, I managed to snag 4 of the 11 NLers in the top 20 in value: Razzball 2009 crush / #1 value Mark Reynolds, #15 Huston Street, #18 Ryan Franklin, #20 Randy Wolf. The relievers were complete and utter luck but still…

2009 – Bottom 20 Draft Values

Interestingly, only 5 of the top 20 worst values are pitchers. (Note: If a hitter/pitcher missed the majority of the year, we capped their negative Point Shares as the lowest drafted slot – #260). This is a mix of tough breaks (Beltran, Reyes, Webb, Manny) with a few guys that we warned were being overvalued in drafts (Chris Davis, Francisco Liriano, Josh Hamilton). I don’t feel like giving out some anti-Nostradamus (Ignoramus?) awards but I will admit to drafting Geovany Soto AND Russ Martin in my NL Blogger Draft.

Last note: 2010 Point Shares based on CHONE data will be posted in the next week!

1. Joe Nathan – Has an unprecedented streak of 24 consecutive months being a $12 salad.  As soon as he gives me his address, I’ll send him the green, leafy ribbon.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

2. Jonathan Broxton – Didn’t lead the league in saves, wasn’t that dominant with ERA, but 114 Ks for a reliever will get them ranked pretty high.  Throw in 7 vulture wins and you have the number two ranked closer.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  7-2/2.61/.96/114, 36 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – Some year he will not live up to his standard.  When that year will be is anyone’s guess. Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.76/.90/72, 44 saves

4. Andrew Bailey – If you take the best middle reliever year and throw in 26 saves, you have Bailey.  Definitely one of those guys that you were probably waiting for the bottom to fall out at any moment and it never happened.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-3/1.84/.88/91, 26 saves

5. Heath Bell – I owned Bell in quite a few leagues since people seem to shun guys who had never closed before even though pitchers have shown over and over again closer experience usually means little.  Had his best save and worst ERA month in September with 9 saves and a 5.14 ERA.  Preseason Rank #16 2009 Projections:  4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-4/2.71/1.12/79, 42 saves

6. Brian Wilson – Because I’m on the West Coast, I always find myself watching the tail end of Giants games.  What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves, Final Numbers:  5-6/2.74/1.20/83, 38 saves

7. Trevor Hoffman – Old is as old continues to do.  Next year, he’ll be entering to the Hells Belles Comedy Cabaret album. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

8. David Aardsma – Bailey’s probably the epitome of SAGNOF, so what’s right under epitome?  Example of?  Embodiment?  “Eh, same thing?”  That was Aardsma.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-6/2.52/1.16/80, 38 saves

9. Huston Street – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated… If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.”  Yup.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves, Final Numbers:  4-1/3.06/.91/70, 35 saves

10. Jonathan Papelbon – Here’s a place their Player Rater fails big time.  Papelbon is this low because he recorded only one vulture win.  It’s nice, but you can’t really rely on closers to get vulture wins.  The rest of his numbers are fine for a closer.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.85/1.15/76, 38 saves

11. Ryan Franklin – I’m pretty sure La Russa and Duncan could make Brendan Ryan a serviceable closer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/1.92/1.20/44, 38 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – By taking the last letters of his first name and the first letters of his last name, he has one of my favorite nicknames, CoCo.  Who’s some other players this would work with?  Ben Zobrist with EnZo…  Zobrist sounds Jewish and he gets an Italian nickname?  What’s he, a pizza bagel?  Doesn’t work.  How about Ryan Howard?  AnHo?  Eh..  Wait, I got one!  Miguel Montero.  Now we just need Daron Sutton to say something like, “The Count’s in Elmo’s favor…”  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  2-6/2.16/1.32/58, 39 saves

13. Rafael Soriano – See what I said regarding Bailey.  Go ahead, scan your eyes up a little.  There ya go!  Soriano did basically the same thing.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-6/2.97/1.06/102, 27 saves

14. Joakim Soria – Soria dealt with some injury issues this year and still put together a good season.  Soria blamed the WBC; I blamed Selig.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/2.21/1.13/69, 30 saves

15. Brian Fuentes – Knock on the door.  *opening door*  A red flag stands there.  What’s up, red flag? Fuentes had more saves than Ks.  Red Flag out.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  1-5/3.93/1.40/46, 48 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – Wasn’t a great season, but you were foolish if you thought he was going to save another 62 games.  Actually, wasn’t as bad when you consider he gave up 5 runs in his next to last appearance.  Right before that, he had a 3.09 ERA.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.71/1.31/73, 35 saves

17. Jose Valverde – Hopefully you were able to grab LaTroy Hawkins when he filled in for Valverde, so your JoTroy Valkins got you 36 saves.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.33/1.13/56, 25 saves

18. George Sherrill – From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.70/1.12/61, 21 saves

19. Michael Wuertz – Wuertz comes in as our first and last true middle reliever to make the top 20 closer list.  If you owned, say, James Shields (11-12/4.14/1.32/167) and Wuertz the entire season, your combined numbers would’ve been 17-13/3.74/1.23/269; that looks like vintage Nolan Ryan.  In other words, you could’ve done *pinkie to mouth* Wuertz.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.63/.95/102, 4 saves

20. J.P. Howell – Whatever Beane is feeding his bullpen up in Oakland, Tampa could use some of it as Howell was a whole lot better before he started closing.  Thurston and Lovey expected more.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/2.84/1.20/79, 17 saves

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

1. Zack Greinke – I’m sure Rudy will cover this at some point in the offseason, but let’s get it out of the way right off the bat.   Greinke showed up on the Risky pitcher post in the preseason.  I count 13 of the 20 pitchers Rudy flagged that did run into troubles in 2009, so I think we can agree it wasn’t an abomination.  The concern with the high pitch count in 2008 for Greinke turned out to be nothing.  Everything was roses.  Red luscious roses like Rip Taylor’s intern tosses at his feet.  Two months under a .55 ERA, more than a K/IP on the year, next to no walks and he didn’t need to talk to the ball between hitters.  Preseason Rank #42, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130, Final Numbers:  16-8/2.16/1.07/242

2. Tim Lincecum – A few weeks ago, someone in the comments said Tim Lincecum’s mullet makes him look like someone Ellen DeGeneres should be dating.  It’s funny because it’s true.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  17-8/3.00/1.18/210, Final Numbers:  15-7/2.48/1.05/261

3. Felix Hernandez – To stick with the Ellen theme, F-Her headed the preseason tier I named, “Guys I’m Kinda Gay For.”  Wainwright was also in that tier.  Luckily, I grabbed Hernandez in one league and Wainwright in just about every other league.  F-Her had one bad month (May; 4.34 ERA), topped 200 Ks, a 1.99 ERA in Away starts, a .603 OPS against and 19 wins.  This is about this year, but, I’ll say it, I love him for next year, too.  And, for some reason, I think he’s underrated.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.33/190, Final Numbers:  19-5/2.49/1.14/217

4. Javier Vazquez – In the preseason, CHONE drooled over Vazquez.  Lots of people disagreed.  CHONE 1, Lots of People Who Disagreed 0.  My abridged comments in the preseason were, “Besides having a last name that would be great for Scrabble, I like him.”  At 33, it was hard to imagine Vazquez having a career year, but that was exactly what he did.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  15-8/4.15/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  15-10/2.87/1.03/238

5. Dan Haren – In the preseason, I said, “Here’s the first pitcher (in the top ten) that I have a legitimate shot at owning in leagues in 2009.   Wins aside, guess who had more value in 2008, Haren or Webb?  Obviously I’m asking the question because it’s Haren.  He beat Webb in WHIP and Ks and practically tied him in ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I did end owning him and he pitched predictably terrific in the 1st half and just-above mediocre in the 2nd half.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  16-7/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.14/1.00/223

6. Chris Carpenter – Not going to claim I saw this season coming at all.  I always thought Carpenter was a great pitcher, but, frankly, I was worried about him coming off the injury season.  I preached caution; I should’ve preached to ignore me.  Preseason Rank #59, 2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110, Final Numbers:  17-4/2.24/1.01/144

7. Roy Halladay – In 2008, Halladay had a 2.78 ERA and 206 Ks.  This year, 2.79 and 208.  If I had to boil down fantasy baseball success, I’d say you want predictability + upside.  Considering most starters are like shooting fish in a barrel that has no fish in it, Halladay brings a sense of predictability that isn’t easily found.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.50/1.10/165, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.79/1.13/208

8. Adam Wainwright – Had some control problems early in the season, but he straightened those out in a big way in the 2nd half (97/18 K/BB).  Yes, he made Rufus and me very happy this year.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  13-7/3.60/1.20/150, Final Numbers:  19-8/2.63/1.21/212

9. Justin Verlander – With his 2nd season in a row of poor April numbers, it’s fair to say Verlander takes some time to start cooking.  I guess when you rely on a 98 MPH fastball, the warm weather helps the, uh, heat.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160, Final Numbers:  19-9/3.45/1.18/269

10. CC Sabathia – When you see his ERA went up in 2009 compared to 2008, it’s easy to say he couldn’t handle The Jetstream.  Alas, you’re wrong, doode.  He had a 3.17 ERA at home compared to 3.53 on the road.  It’s all about the home cooking (and eating).  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  18-7/3.20/1.10/200, Final Numbers:  19-8/3.37/1.15/197

11. Josh Johnson – Throw out his final start of the season when he may or may not have been suffering from an illness and his ERA would’ve been 3.03.  BTW, don’t you love how ESPN and Yahoo put a guy’s condition in parenthesis in their player card news?  I wish everyone had player cards.  “Last night, Grey grabbed a burger (hungry) then tried to have sex with his girlfriend (headache).”  Preseason Rank #39, 2009 Projections:  13-6/3.75/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  15-5/3.23/1.16/191

12. Matt Cain – Cain was a strange case for me.  (Prepare yourselves for the longest run-on sentence in history.  You may need an oxygen mask.)  I loved Cain coming into the season, ended up drafting him in a few leagues, he got off to an incredible start, I wrote repeatedly on the blog about how his numbers were supposed to regress, so no one would trade for him in any of my leagues because of what I wrote or because they read something similar elsewhere, the more I tried to trade him the better he pitched, then I stopped trying to trade him and he finally regressed in September (5.22 ERA).  Preseason Rank #32, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.35/1.26/200, Final Numbers:  14-8/2.89/1.18/171

13. Jair Jurrjens – Not that I’m against Jar-Jar, but his K-rate does bore me a bit.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150, Final Numbers:  14-10/2.60/1.21/152

14. Jon Lester – He had the tale of two seasons.  It (June on) was the best of times, it (April/May) was the worst of times…  If you jumped on his coattails in June when I advised you to, you did pretty good.  Preseason Rank #27, 2009 Projections:  15-7/4.00/1.30/150, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.41/1.23/225

15. Wandy Rodriguez – Hmm… What’s this, snitches? Yup.  Preseason Rank #42, 2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160, Final Numbers:  14-12/3.02/1.24/193

16. Ted Lilly – I avoided Lilly in all of my drafts to my detriment.  But, honestly, when you have F-Her, Haren, Cain, Wainwright, Wandy and Wolf in 90% of your starting spots on your teams, you’re doing okay.  I’ll repeat it ad nauseam in the preseason, but you don’t have to draft pitching early to compete.  The only league I drafted a top pitcher, I took Peavy.  And we know how that worked out.  Preseason Rank #44, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.10/1.06/151

17. Randy Wolf – In a 15 team league (that’s deep, ya’ll), I grabbed Wolf off of waivers.  In my 16 team league, I took Wolf in one of my last picks.  Chances are Wolf was not drafted in your leagues, which makes me think Wolf was one of the best value pitching picks off of waivers.  I like Wolf and Wolf Like Me, TV on the Radio.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-7/3.23/1.10/160

18. Josh Beckett – My preseason AL Cy Young pick didn’t fair that terrible, but he’s definitely not winning the award.  The odd thing is my preseason predictions for his numbers weren’t very far off.  Just turned out there were a lot of great pitchers in 2009.  As Jessica Shaw would say, steroids out, pitching and speed in.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  16-10/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.86/1.19/199

19. Ubaldo Jimenez – Chances are if you owned Ubaldo, you picked him up sometime in May or June after his 7.58 ERA April.  So his numbers are even sweeter in your Active stats.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.47/1.23/198

20. Cliff Lee – The Adverb moved to the NL and his ERA went up.  Weird!  Guess it’s because the Phillies play in a stadium smaller than a jai lai fronton.  Somewhere in Aruba, J.P. Ricciardi dials his phone.  “Hey, Halladay… You’re welcome!”  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  15-10/3.75/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  14-13/3.22/1.24/181

21. Carlos Lee – How did he only get 65 Runs?  He played in a 160 games.  He batted .300.  He hit 26 homers.  He hit 4th the entire year.  Oh, wait, I know.  Geoff Blum hit 5th for the Astros in 171 at-bats.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7, Final Numbers:  65/26/102/.300/5

22. Andre Ethier – Maybe it’s because of the pitcher’s park or the pitcher’s division, but I never fully get behind Dodgers hitters.  Lukewarm on Russell Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake, Ethier and Manny.  Kemp I’m crazy for, but I think you have to be crazy to not be crazy for him.  Preseason Rank #46, 2009 Projections:  80/17/75/.290/5, Final Numbers:  92/31/106/.272/6

23. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

24. Nick Markakis - Here we see the problem with relying on 25 homer power.  In an off year, they hit 18 homers and you wanna strangle someone.  Markakis had two months where he hit one homer (June and September) and one month of 2 homers (April).  His speed continues to decline.  He now has back-to-back seasons of 5 homers vs. lefties.  Markakis isn’t done in my eyes (he’s only going to be 26 in 2010), but I really would like to see 30 homers before going caca-cuckoo for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10, Final Numbers:  94/18/101/.293/6

25. Nelson Cruz – His season was actually much better than this ranking and that will be reflected in January when I go over 2010 rankings.  I say it’s much better because Runs and RBIs are a symptom of the guys around him.  The homers and steals can’t be taught, and he has them.  He could easily be a top 15 outfielder with better Runs and RBIs.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10, Final Numbers:  75/33/76/.260/20

26. Rajai Davis – After the All-Star Break, he stole 30 bases and hit .325.  DNA samples taken in the 2nd half of the season showed there was a 99.8% chance that Rajai was Carl Crawford.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/3/48/.305/41

27. Jason Kubel – In February, I alluded to how he was better value than Jermaine Dye.  And that’s me alluding to me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280, Final Numbers:  73/28/103/.300/1

28. Raul Ibanez – My call on him being a 2nd half hitter looked about as good as Lady Gaga’s clothing choices.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3, Final Numbers:  93/34/93/.272/4

29. Scott Podsednik – Sometime in May, Ozzie called him into his office.  This is what transpired.  “I want vintage Podsednik!”  “I don’t know if I have it in me, Skip.”  “Skip?!  What is that?  Punta talk?  Now go uncork a 2004 Podsednik!”  And he did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/7/48/.304/30

30. Adam Dunn – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

31. Hunter Pence – The same thing that hampered Carlos Lee also got Pence.  It’s called the lack of an Astros offense.  With a little help in Runs and RBIs, Pence would’ve been ranked much higher.  Preseason Rank #35, 2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10, Final Numbers:  76/25/72/.282/14

32. Curtis Granderson - There was a whole lot of math done recently on Granderson’s year.  Long story short, he should’ve hit in the .270s rather than the .240s.  As is my wont, I usually ignore average anyway when a guy brings something else to the table.  Grandy brings 30/20.  That’s a whole lotta something else.  I feel like I may be owning Grandy next year on a few teams.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17, Final Numbers:  91/30/71/.249/20

33. Franklin Gutierrez – Back in February, I said, “I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16, Final Numbers:  85/18/70/.283/16

34. B.J. Upton – You know what would be nice?  Beej living up to(n) his potential.    Upton’s in the same category as Grandy.  Come February, I’ll be ignoring his bad average.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35, Final Numbers:  79/11/55/.241/42

35. Marlon Byrd – I suggested in the preseason that you grab Byrd and David Murphy and platoon them.  Turns out you would’ve done fine just owning them both and playing them.  Preseason Rank #68, 2009 Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10, Final Numbers:  66/20/89/.283/8

36. Nate McLouth – McLousy turned in an old school Mike Cameron season.  20/20 — yay!  .256 — eh.  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22, Final Numbers:  86/20/70/.256/19

37. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate didn’t get his first at-bat of the season until June.  Go ahead, reread that sentence.  Now smize!  (The Tyra Banks definition, not the other one.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/12/54/.286/22

38. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s 2nd half was about as good as my ability to read Sumerian.  Apparently, the guy with the arrow on the ancient tablet means Hawpe shouldn’t be facing lefties.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280, Final Numbers:  82/23/86/.285/1

39. Juan Rivera – There should be a glossary term for these Juan Rivera types.  These players are available off of waivers in just about every 12 team league.  They don’t wow you with their numbers.  They don’t hurt your team.  They’re just there in your 5th outfielder slot.  Jason Kubel would be another one.  Each year, one steps up and does more than what is asked of them.  In 2008, it was Xavier Nady, this year it was Michael Cuddyer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/25/88/.287

40. Chris Coghlan – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

1. Carl Crawford – For four years, Crawford was featured prominently in the top of the preseason rankings for outfielders, and, in 2009, he finally fulfilled that promise by ranking first overall at the end of the season.  Wouldn’t you know it, last year was not one of those top preseason ranking years.  After an abysmal 2008, Crawford’s stock did a Triple Lindy coming into 2009.  Then he exploded for 21 steals in May and he looked like he might surpass Lou Brock’s career total by August.  Unfortunately, he slowed down in the 2nd half.  Let’s hope it wasn’t his knee shouting expletives at the artificial turf.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  85/15/80/.300/45, Final Numbers:  96/15/68/.305/60

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – Hamilton-Burrishly, Ellsbury and Crawford dueled during the regular season to see who would steal more bases, Ellsbury won the battle, but Crawford the war.  On a sidenote, not such a great sign that the top two outfielders gave a majority of value with the steal.  Where’s the 40 homer outfielders?  There were none.  Not even Adam Dunn.  That’s something that will need to be addressed in its own post during the offseason.  Seems like something for December Grey.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  110/10/60/.285/40, Final Numbers:  94/8/60/.301/70

3. Ryan Braun – I said this the other day when talking about Evan Longoria, but it applies here, as well.  Braun may not have been a disappointment per se, but eff “per se” in its Frenchy-sounding goolie.  I wanted 40 homers from Braun!  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  100/40/110/.280/15, Final Numbers:  113/32/114/.320/20

4. Matt Kemp – Here’s what I said last January, “I not only bought into the Matt Kemp hype, I rolled it up in decorative sugar and began to sell it at a local bake sale.  You want someone in the fourth round in 2009 that could be a first or second rounder in 2010?  Matt Kemp’s your man, man.  He’s the future, kids.”  And that’s me quoting me!  And me was right.  Next year, I’m taking Kemp in the 1st round and I’m going to like it.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  95/24/80/.295/30, Final Numbers:  97/26/101/.297/34

5. Ichiro Suzuki – The average is great, the steals are okay, the homers are bleh.  Another Ichiro year.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  110/7/50/.315/35, Final Numbers:  88/11/46/.352/26

6. Matt Holliday – Did it help his RBIs to bat behind Pujols?  Probably.  Maybe a few more homers than if he stayed with the A’s?  Yup, but as you see from my preseason projections he was pretty much in line with what I thought he’d do.  He was scorching hot when he went from the A’s to the Cards.  I believe that he would’ve been hot in the 2nd half no matter where he played.  Next year when people are saying he’ll return to 30 homers, I’m going to say again he’s a 25 home run hitter.  Unless he signs with the Rockies or the Yankees.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12, Final Numbers:  94/24/109/.313/14

7. Bobby Abreu – Who would’ve put three Angels in the top 20 in the beginning of the year?  Gene Autry’s Ghost, perhaps.  But not many people.  I thought Abreu would steal a bit more on the Angels, but I thought the years of 30 steals were long gone.  Preseason Rank #25, 2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20, Final Numbers:  96/15/103/.293/30

8. Michael Bourn – Speed is definitely in a renaissance.  It’s like the go-go 80s with Rock Raines sniffing coke off of the dashboard of Keith Hernandez’s El Dorado.  All we need now is for Okrent to send out the standings in the mail.  Makes you wonder if speed would’ve ever left the scene if it wasn’t for steroids.  Preseason Rank #66, 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40, Final Numbers:  97/3/35/.285/61

9. Adam Lind – I’ve already talked a bit about my thoughts on Lind for 2010.  Right now, we’re talking about 2009, ya’ll.  He’ll be the magical 27 years old in 2010.  Shoot, we’re talking about 2009.  Um, he had a good year.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.  (There will be more to come!)  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3, Final Numbers:  93/35/114/.305/1

10. Jayson Werth – Hopefully you didn’t abandon ship when he got off to a rocky April start (2 homers, 10 RBIs).  After that, Werth ended up having a very consistent season, hitting at least 6 homers every month.  Then he chucked in 5 steals in four games of October because he obviously owned himself in a H2H league.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17, Final Numbers:  98/36/99/.268/20

11. Jason Bay – Now for the inconsistent Jason.  He hit 19 of his homers in two months of the season (May and August).  In July, he hit 1 homer and drove in only 5 runs.  On the bright side, he must’ve realized he was starring in a donkey show with him being the donkey because he contributed 6 steals in July.  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  100/32/110/.280/10, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.267/13

12. Justin Upton – I see your love for B.J. and I raise you a 20/20/.300 season.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.260/7, Final Numbers:  84/26/86/.300/20

13. Kendry Morales – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post. Final Numbers:

14. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:

15. Shin-Soo Choo – I wonder if there’s a fantasy baseball blogger in Korea writing Torii Hunter is the American Shin-Soo Choo.  Things that make you say hmm…  Preseason Rank #51, 2009 Projections:  70/16/70/.280/11, Final Numbers:  87/20/86/.300/21

16. Denard Span – Did I underestimate Denard Dawg’s relevance in the beginning of the season?  I don’t think so, since my projections were pretty spot-on.  So why did I rank him 53rd?  Because I didn’t realize how few homers would come out of the outfield in 2009.  You could’ve found 27 guys who contributed 20 steals, but how many guys hit 30 homers?  11 guys.  To be continued… Preseason Rank #53, 2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20, Final Numbers:  97/8/68/.311/23

17. Torii Hunter – On July 3rd, I told you to sell Hunter when he was at 17/13.  In the last three months, he went 5/5.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #30, 2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17, Final Numbers:  74/22/90/.299/18

18. Nyjer Morgan – Let’s reenact the day Nyjer was traded from the Pirates.  “Nyjer, you’ve been traded.”  A five minute dance, followed by ten minutes of celebratory hoots and hollers as he lets everyone know how glad he is to be out of the Pirates organization.  “Nyjer, you’re going to the Nats.”  Nyjer cries.  Then he devotes himself to proving the Pirates wrong as he hits .351 with the Nats and steals 24 bases in 49 games.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/3/39/.307/42

19. Johnny Damon – The Yankees figured out a way to reverse the effects of all of their aging players.  Have them play in a Little League field.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20, Final Numbers:  107/24/82/.282/12

20. Shane Victorino – Wait, Denard Dawg was supposed to be emulating Victorino.  Teacher, student… Not student, teacher.  Not student, teacher!  Victorino’s season worries me a bit because he did much better last year in 50 less at-bats.  In 620 ABs in 2009, his stats should look better.  I’ve already had my love of Sparkakis desecrated this year.  Not you too, Victorino… Please.   Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  100/15/60/.285/35, Final Numbers:  102/10/62/.292/25

1. Mark Reynolds – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  75/31/100/.255/7, Final Numbers:  98/44/102/.260/24

2. Chone Figgins – He’s actually right in line with the stats I predicted for him in the preseason.  So I knew exactly what he’d give you/me and I ranked him 15th.  This seems like crazy talk from a mental patient.  I’ve said it before, I’m obviously about to say it again.  I don’t like owning steals at 3rd base.  It puts you at a major disadvantage in the power department.  If you get 5 homers from your 3rd baseman, you better have Utley, Hill or Tulo giving you major power from your middle infield spots.  And, even then, I’d prefer to get 40 steals from a waiver wire pickup like Rajai Davis.  Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35, Final Numbers:  114/5/54/.298/42

3. Evan Longoria – He was right in line with my preseason predictions, but for some reason his season felt disappointing.  Not disappointing where he would be dropped in rankings for next season.  Not disappointing where he actually performed below expectations.  Disappointing in that he didn’t completely blow away expectations.  Kinda like how I felt after watching the first two seasons of Mad Men on DVD.  Solid, but wasn’t it supposed to be even better than that?  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7, Final Numbers:  100/33/113/.281/9

4. Pablo Sandoval – Went over him in the top 20 Catchers post. Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

5. Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman could’ve easily fell into the Alex Gordon, Delmon Young class with a poor season in 2009.  Luckily for him and his owners, he finally took the next step with his power.  Unfortunately, somewhere between Jim Bowden riding his Segway out of town and the Nats having another terrible season, Zimmerman stopped running.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7, Final Numbers:  110/33/106/.292/2

6. Kevin Youkilis – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5, Final Numbers:  99/27/94/.305/7

7. David Wright – If I would’ve told you in March that you’d get 27 steals from Wright, I imagine you would’ve been over the moon, or whatever that old-timey expression is.  In 2009, Wright pulled his best impersonation of Alex Rios circa 2008.  Numbers aren’t necessarily terrible.  They’re just not at all what you expected.  If you wanted 10 homers and 25+ steals in the first round, you would’ve taken Victorino with the third pick of the draft.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  110/33/120/.310/14, Final Numbers: 88/10/72/.307/27

8. Alex Rodriguez – A-Rod ended giving a lot more steals than I thought he would.  Now, for the first time in a long time, he might actually be underrated going into next season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4, Final Numbers:  78/30/100/.286/14

9. Michael Young – Went over him in the top 20 shortstops post.  Didn’t have 3rd base eligibility in the preseason so was unranked.  2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

10. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Chris Coghlan – Knowing I’m against Figgins as your third baseman, you can imagine how I feel about Coghlan.  The fact he ranked so high on this list really tells you all you need to know about the state of the hot corner.  If you take nothing away from this, know you want a 1st baseman in your corner infidel spot, not a 3rd baseman.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

13. Jorge Cantu – This was a classic terrible season that can absolutely kill your team.  I’ll explain.  You watch him come out of the gates in April on fire (7/22/.365).  You’re aware that he hit 29 homers the year before.  You’re psyched.  You just drafted Cantu later than most and now he’s going to have a career year.  May comes, he’s bad.  You know he’ll get better because April was so good.  June comes and he’s hitting for average again, but no pop.  You’re starting to get worried.  Was April a fluke?  July comes and he hits for average and still no power.  You’re officially sick of him.  August comes and the bottom falls out.  Finally, you’ve had enough.  You drop him.  Then, in September, he hits again on someone else’s team.  Finally, you find out Cantu impregnated your sister.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5, Final Numbers:  67/16/100/.289/3

14. Scott Rolen – Member back in the day when 85/20/95/.285 were “Injured Scott Rolen” numbers.  Well, get a load of what “Healthy Scott Rolen” numbers look like now…  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  76/11/67/.305/5

15. Casey Blake – When I went back to see where I ranked Blake in the preseason, I was actually kinda surprised I didn’t.  I think what happened was I started figuring out his predictions then I fell asleep.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  84/18/79/.280/3

16. Alberto Callaspo – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Russell Branyan – Here’s a guy that is the exact opposite of Jorge Cantu.  He gave you all the stats you needed from him then went to the DL.  Preseason Unranked, though he did appear in the first Buy/Sell of the season listed as a Buy.  Then he appeared in a late summer Sell column right before he disappeared into the abyss.  Net-net, natch.  Final Numbers:  64/31/76/.251/2

18. Mike Lowell – In January, I said, “‘Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.”  And that’s me quoting my trepidation!  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275, Final Numbers:  54/17/75/.290/2

19. Chipper Jones – This was the year the Glass Chipper shattered.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5, Final Numbers:  80/18/71/.264/4

20. Aramis Ramirez – Not only did the two month DL stint murder his numbers, but even when he returned he didn’t always look like himself.  I blame Milton Bradley.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295, Final Numbers:  46/15/65/.317/2

1. Hanley Ramirez – I was hoping for a 35/35 season from Hanley, so I was a bit disappointed by a 24/27 season.  Obviously, not nearly as disappointed as I was in Jose Reyes.  (First bitter Jose Reyes mention.)  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  125/37/80/.295/35, Final Numbers:  101/24/106/.342/27

2. Derek Jeter – As many of you know, I interviewed Matthew Berry in March.  He called shenanigans.  Why I bring this up now?  Because here’s why he got mad.  His words from Deadspin.com, “So, I was just surprised by some of what he said. Especially the part about me defending Jeter! I’ve had Jeter on every fantasy “hate” list I can remember… That was a low blow, saying I liked Jeter.”  Turned out, Jeter went on to be the 3rd ranked hitter in all of the AL according to the ESPN Player Rater.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  110/12/70/.305/12, Final Numbers:  107/18/66/.334/30

3. Troy Tulowitzki – I predicted a comeback in the preseason when I said, “Let’s put Tulo’s 2008 season into a strait jacket and then submerge it into Houdini’s Milk Can.”  Then I predicted a comeback from his poor early season struggles.  Without a poor April and May, he’d be the top ranked shortstop.  Yeah, he was that good in 2009.  I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball.  Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  65/20/85/.285/5, Final Numbers:  101/32/92/.297/20

4. Jason Bartlett – I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  90/14/66/.320/30

5. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  91/27/91/.297/17

6. Michael Young – In the preseason, he looked like he was headed for the Chariot of Empty Averages.  Turned out he still had some pop in his bat.  (Not pop meaning soda for those reading in Minnesota.)  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

7. Jimmy Rollins – I predicted his steals would come down and they may fall a bit more next year, too.  What should stop falling is his average.  He had some bad luck this year.  Might need one on those waving porcelain cats that are in sushi restaurants.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  115/16/75/.280/40, Final Numbers:  100/21/77/.250/31

8. Miguel Tejada – Wait a second, forget Jose Reyes, where is Stephen Drew?  Tejada did pretty much what I thought he would, except for a higher average.  Expect Jim Bunning to ask Congress to withdraw Tejada’s high average because of an unrealistic BABIP.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  90/15/75/.285/7, Final Numbers:  83/14/86/.313/5

9. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Preseason Rank #19, Final Numbers:  81/6/68/.308/17

10. Yunel Escobar – Why can’t Yunel just steal 10 bases? Adam Dunn can steal 10 bases.  Ryan Howard stole 8 bases.  Shoot, McCann nearly stole as many as Yunel in 2009.  At least do it for your fantasy baseball owners.  (Isn’t it weird how some players sound better when you call them by their first name and some better by their last name?  I would never call McCann by Brian or Yunel by Escobar.  BTW II, doesn’t Yunel by Escobar sound like a douchebag clothing designer?  Ed Hardy? Pfft!  I’m wearing Yunel by Escobar.)  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  90/13/65/.300/3, Final Numbers:  89/14/76/.299/5

11. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

12. Orlando Cabrera – O-Cab < Taxi Cab Confessions < Cash Cab.  Yes, this top 20 is so shallow that one good month would get you on the list.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  90/7/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  83/9/77/.284/13

13. Ryan Theriot – In May, I traded Theriot and Adam Dunn for Joe Reyes.  Have I mentioned how much I hate Reyes?  I’d take 20+ steals from my futility infielder over Yunel’s brand of yawnstipating stats.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  90/2/40/.295/25, Final Numbers:  81/7/54/.284/21

14. Erick Aybar – Really scary how unreliable some of the guys in this top 20 were for extended periods of time.  This is why I play fast and furious with my MIs.  Aybar’s hot?  Play him!  Yunel on a streak?  Play him!  Beckham?  What the hey!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/5/58/.312/14

15. Alexei Ramirez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Preseason Rank #4, Final Numbers:  71/15/68/.277/14

16. Elvis Andrus – 30+ steals, nice.  Do I hear 40+?  Maybe next year I do.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections: 55/3/35/.250/20, Final Numbers:  72/6/40/.267/33

17. Maicer Izturis – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  74/8/65/.300/13

18. Clint Barmes – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Preseason Rank #20, 2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12, Final Numbers:  69/23/76/.245/12

19. Rafael Furcal – He actually came pretty close to the numbers I predicted for him if he only played one month.  Wow, what happened to this schmohawk?  Mark Reynolds stole a dozen bases more than Furcal.  To quote DeNiro in Goodfellas, what’s the world coming to?  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/15/65/.285/35 or 25/6/40/.390/7, Final Numbers:  92/9/47/.269/12

20. Gordon Beckham – If he had a full season of Runs and RBIs, he would’ve been a top ten shortstop.  Note to Grey:  Write a lot about him leading up to 2010.  Follow up note, you already did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  58/14/63/.270/7

1. Chase Utley – He was my choice for NL MVP in the preseason.  He’s going to be my 2010 NL MVP preseason selection.  Probably will be my 2011 preseason NL MVP choice and maybe my pick in 2012.  Then, one day when Pujols is not only hurt, but plays hurt, Utley will win it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  105/29/105/.295/10, Final Numbers: 112/31/93/.282/23

2. Aaron Hill – Let’s get it out of the way upfront, there was some surprises in the 2nd basemen rankings.  We (or you) can sit there and say to yourself, “Gadzooks, Grey did a terrible job of ranking the 2nd basemen.”  First, who says gadzooks?  Are you in a comic strip?  Second, no one ranked Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Marco Scutaro, Adam Kennedy et al anywhere near the top fifteen coming into the season.  There’s the top guys and there’s the bottom guys at MI.  This is why I usually punt the middle and avoid middle infielders between rounds 7 and 15.  Either get a top one, or ignore and take a flier later.  More will be said on this in the offseason.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  103/36/108/.286/6

3. Robinson Cano -  Someone has a terrific season the previous year (Pedroia, Hamilton) and I pulled back for 2009.  A player craps the bed in the previous season (Robinson Cano) and I got excited about them for 2009.  This is the story of my life with women too.  Kick me in the nads and I’ll buy you steel-tipped boots.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  80/18/85/.310/3, Final Numbers:  103/25/85/.320/5

4. Brian Roberts – My predicted numbers weren’t that far off from where he ended up.  Didn’t like him in April of 2008, didn’t like him in April of 2009, I think I might like him a bit more in 2010 because he’s finally become predictable.  Predictable is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30, Final Numbers:  110/16/79/.283/30

5. Ben Zobrist – Almost surprising as his season is his Christian faith (come on, his name is screaming for a mohel).  Everyone knows the good, so let’s look at the glass half empty.  17/52 and 11 steals with a .297 average in the 1st half.  In the 2nd half, 10/39 in 9 more at-bats.  Not terrible, just not as good.  His eligibility definitely helped offset the regression.   Nevertheless, it was there.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  91/27/91/.297/17

6. Ian Kinsler – It’s great to finally see what he’s capable of over an entire season.  He’s a liability on average, plus speed and nearly as solid as Utley elsewhere.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  110/23/80/.280/25, Final Numbers:  101/31/86/.253/31

7. Dustin Pedroia – This was the season I was worried about when I advised people (that’s you!) to stay away from Pedrioa.  Was 2009 a terrible season?  No, I never thought for one second he’d be terrible.  I just didn’t buy into him as a 2nd round pick and a repeat of his MVP season.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15, Final Numbers:  115/15/72/.296/20

8. Brandon Phillips – For some reason, no one seems to trust Phillips.  20/20 for three seasons straight and he gets no respect.  Whatevs, I’ll keep owning him since no one else wants to.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25, Final Numbers:  78/20/98/.276/20

9. Asdrubal Cabrera – With a swift kick to the nuts, the tomato-tomahto portion of the program begins.  It didn’t really matter which of these guys you owned, they were all productive at some points during the season and yawnstipating at other times.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.275/10, Final Numbers:  81/6/68/.308/17

10. Marco Scutaro – If you would’ve told me in February there would be two Blue Jay 2nd basemen in the top 10, I would’ve punched you in the mouth.  MAR…co… SCUT…aro… had a decent season for a guy that probably wasn’t even owned in your league for a third of the season and returned from Asia with pasta.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

11. Adam Kennedy – Gene Rayburn, “2nd base is so shallow…”  You, “How shallow is it?”  Kennedy had only a good May and September and he’s ranked 11th overall.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/11/63/.289/20

12. Felipe Lopez -  You would think a guy whose ADP was 213 and who is ranked this high would have been a huge success.  You’d be dead wrong.  So many times I wanted to cut the Fe-Lopezian tubes, then he’d go and have a 1-for-3 game with 1 Run and I’d hold him.  Ugh, he had one of the more frustrating seasons.  How does he only steal 6 bases all year?!  Ryan Howard stole 8 bases!  Preseason Unranked, but he did make the Cheap Alternatives post, Final Numbers:  88/9/57/.310/6

13. Jose Lopez – I usually go with speed at MI, but, if you needed power there, J. Lo turned in a perfectly respectable season.  I would’ve taken his season over F. Lo any day of the week and twice on Muesday.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  80/15/85/.280/5, Final Numbers:  69/25/96/.272/3

14. Alexei Ramirez – When you’re ranked within sneezing distance of Luis Castillo, I hope you get Swine Flu.  Ramirez had one good month (May, 7 homers, 2 steals while batting .283) and 4 yawnstipating months.  How does he only steal 4 bases from June 19th on?  I think I’ve found my first candidate of the offseason that I won’t be drafting on any teams in 2010.  No matter what stories come out of spring training. Alexei has never seen the ball this well before! Alexei gained 120 of muscle mass! Alexei can go to hell.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/15/68/.277/14

15. Maicer Izturis – Maicer, what goes on?  Maicer…  It’s funny all the people ending the season at exactly .300 or just over it.  Don’t make me get Vin Scully to recount the story of how Ted Williams started both sides of a doubleheader while sitting on .400 for the season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/8/65/.300/13

16. Alberto Callaspo – I liked him in the preseason, but even with that like, I couldn’t generate the enthusiasm to draft him anywhere.  Let’s face it, his mother barely gets excited about his hitting.  Was also mentioned in that Cheap Alternatives thingamapost, Final Numbers:  79/11/73/.300/2

17. Luis Castillo – Please don’t make me say anything about Castillo.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/1/40/.302/20

18. Placido Polanco – Placido Polanco is Yoda to Callaspo’s Luke.  Can we just call these guys Polancallaspo?  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  90/7/55/.310/7, Final Numbers:  82/10/72/.285/7

19. Dan Uggla – Even with how awful this list is, Aramis Ramirez, with 2nd base eligibility, would not have made this list.  Yes, 2nd base was deeper than 3rd base.  Bring back steroids!  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5, Final Numbers:  84/31/90/.243/2

20. Clint Barmes – This is one of my big problems with the ESPN Player Rater (this is where these rankings come from; makes it less subjective).  I’d rank Barmes as the last guy you’d want and above all the tomato-tomahtos.  I don’t really mind the average, but his homers and steals were valuable.  This is how I ended up with Mark Reynolds on all my teams in 2009 and how I will probably have Barmes on some 2010 teams.  (This is not official yet, we’re still recapping.  Barmes needs an everyday job.)  Was ranked 20th as a Shortstop, 2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12, Final Numbers:  69/23/76/.245/12

1. Albert Pujols -  With or without a major league capable hitter behind him… With or without a working elbow tendon… None of it seemed to matter to Pujols.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  105/35/110/.335/5, Final Numbers:  124/47/135/.327/16

2. Prince Fielder – Here’s what I said in January of last year, “I’ve seen the big man falling into the third round of some drafts.  Makes me feel like I need to clear something up.  We’re drafting for 2009, not for what he did in 2008.   Sure, Berkman had a great 2008, but he’s hardly just entering his prime.  Yes, Fielder is the world’s fattest 24-year-old vegetarian and we should be worried about his general health when he’s in his 30s and needs a crane to get him to 1st base, but right now….”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285, Final Numbers:  103/46/141/.299/2

3. Ryan Howard – I can predict his numbers in February with a blindfold on.  Sure, a blindfold doesn’t impede my ability to think about what Howard will hit, but you get my drift.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/45/140/.265, Final Numbers:  105/45/141/.279/8

4. Miguel Cabrera – He threw in an inconsequential 6 steals to help boost his value a bit.  Otherwise, he fell short of mine and just about everyone’s projections, taking a step back in power.  The RBIs were down, which was due to Leyland’s inability to find a decent #3 hitter.  Clete Thomas saw 146 at-bats in the three hole and hit .205.  I believe Clete hit third simply because his first name sounds basebally.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  100/39/125/.305, Final Numbers:  96/34/103/.324/6

5. Mark Reynolds – Everyone was saying 3rd base was extremely shallow.  And it was.  So what do you do when something’s shallow?  You either reach or you punt.  At some point in March, I decided to punt 3rd basemen in all of my leagues.  I wasn’t drafting high enough to get Wright (phew), Aramis had too many question marks for where he was being drafted and I wasn’t thrilled with Chris Davis as an upside pick.   So going through all of the potential upside picks in the later rounds, there was only one player that could give me 30 homers and 10 steals.  Actually, the more I looked at him, the more I couldn’t understand why he was being drafted so late.  Was he that different than Chris Davis?  So in every single league, I drafted this guy — Mini-Donkey.  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked 14th for 3rd basemen, 2009 Projections:  75/31/100/.255/7, Final Numbers:  98/44/102/.260/24

6. Mark Teixeira – If I would’ve known exactly how the new Yankee Stadium would play — The Jetstream… Slide, Slide, slippity slide… — I probably would’ve guessed Tex could’ve done much more damage.  But I didn’t, and he didn’t.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285, Final Numbers:  103/39/122/.292/2

7. Derrek Lee – His season flummoxed me to a degree.  I didn’t see him exploding for the power he did.  I thought he still had some speed in his giraffe legs.  On the other hand, when he started poor (April — 1HR, .189), I pushed people to buy into a rebound.  Six of one, you know the rest.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8, Final Numbers:  91/35/111/.306/1

8. Kendry Morales – I liked him coming into the year, but even I didn’t think he had this many homers in his bat, which makes me think he might be overrated next year, but until then… Preseason Unranked, but he did get a Sleeper Post, Final Numbers:  86/34/108/.306/3

9. Pablo Sandoval – Went over him in the recap in the top 20 catchers.  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked #13 for Catchers, 2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.300, Final Numbers:  79/25/90/.330/5

10. Kevin Youkilis – The nice thing about Youuuuuk is his predictability.  Will he hit 25 homers and bat near .300?  Yup, probably.  As with everyone, the RBIs and Runs are products of his environment.  But even those stats are usually right in line with his norms.  Death, taxes and Youk. Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295, Final Numbers:  99/27/94/.305/7

11. Joey Votto – For huge periods of 2009, Votto was a complete Failicorn.  And… Wait, needs to be bigger…  AND he still produced.  I’m very excited about Votto for 2010.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12, Final Numbers:  82/25/84/.322/4

12. Adrian Gonzalez – Imagine a world where there’s a new episode of The Wire on every night of the week, every meal consists of pork by-products in a tube shape and Adrian Gonzalez plays anywhere but Petco (and Metco).  Oh, and we all live in igloos made of grape ice pops.  Ah, yes, I like that. Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280, Final Numbers:  90/40/99/.277/1

13. Victor Martinez – Went over him in the recap in the top 20 catchers.  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked #4 for Catchers, 2009 Projections:  65/18/95/.300, Final Numbers:  88/23/108/.303/1

14. Michael Cuddyer – Confession… Forgive me, Razzball Reader, but I wrote a good chunk of this post about two weeks ago.  At that point, Cuddyer was ranked 20th.  It didn’t help that Carlos Pena and Morneau were injured and Helton’s life-sized portrait of himself began to rapidly age, but it’s fair to say Cuddyer ended his season really well.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

15. Adam Dunn – Two donkeys, one list.  Yeehaw!  (He acquired 1st base eligibility during the season.)  Ranked #23 for Outfielders, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

16. Todd Helton – Eh, there’s guys below Helton I would’ve taken in his stead.  Morneau, Pena and Butler for stead sake.  Helton did have a much more productive season in 2009 than I thought he was capable of.  His numbers at 1st are still kinda yawnstipating.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  79/15/86/.325

17. Billy Butler – 51 doubles at the age of 23 is something to get very excited about.  I’ve already talked about him a bit for 2010.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Edgar Martinez-type season from him next year.  That is a big compliment.  Butler was in the preseason cheap alternatives post, where I said, “Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs….  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  78/21/93/.301/1

18. Justin Morneau – I’ve never drafted Morneau on any team in any league ever — yes, I remember these types of things and forget loved ones’ birthdays.  I don’t avoid Morneau as much as I never see 3rd round value in a 1st baseman that is going to max out around 30 homers.  Weird that he plays in Minnesota because he gets big city hype every year.  Somewhere Wheelock Whitney, Jr. smiles. Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285, Final Numbers:  85/30/100/.274

19. Paul Konerko – Konerko’s one of those late round corner men that is always welcome in deep leagues and always ignored in shallow ones.  He falls between the cracks like C+ students.  He also showed up in the cheap alternatives post too with the aforementioned Moobs.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/28/88/.277/1

20. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed about a month of the season.  Put that in your skull bong and smoke it.  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265, Final Numbers:  91/39/100/.227/3