I did a Google search for Chris Davis and it said, “Did you mean Superman?” Weird! The force is very strong in this young Texas Ranger. Chuck Norris drives an ice cream truck covered in human skulls; Chris Davis serves the Bomb Pops. I’m not sure if there’s anyone in all of fantasy baseball this year who has climbed further in a shorter time during this offseason. I’ve done my own basting of the turkey with a Chris Davis sleeper post. My fantasy hymen is broken! In my defense, that post was published mid-December and I wrote it sometime in late-November. When I wrote that, Davis was going after Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins in drafts — ah, those were the days — but he’s since flipped the script on them. That makes sense, but now he seems to be shooting even further up draft sheets. Then someone mentioned to me in our fantasy baseball forums or somewhere in the comments or somewhere on the site, I don’t know where, that they drafted Mark Reynolds and they called him a poor man’s Chris Davis. You know what’s funny about this? Not funny funny, but not really funny funny. Chris Davis has never done any of this over a full season, but Mark Reynolds has, so Chris Davis should be a poor man’s Mark Reynolds, shouldn’t he?
I projected Chris Davis for 75/30/95/.275/3 and Reynolds at 75/31/100/.255/7. To take me out of the equation, ZIPS projects Mark Reynolds for 88/28/89/.257/8 and Chris Davis for 84/33/103/.263/6. Um, those numbers are pretty close for each player. Both play in hitter’s parks, so there’s not much of an edge there. Davis has shown he has a greater propensity for line drives so his average should be better than Reynolds, but those projections account for that. Davis is a .260-.280 hitter. Reynolds is a .240-.260 hitter.
Now if they both hit .260, they’re more or less equal. If Davis hits .263 and Reynolds hits .250, then the impact of Chris Davis’s AVG on your team vs. Mark Reynolds is .001 (if you assume the real difference is .013 and they are one of 13 hitters on your team.) Then you have to realize Davis’s projections carry more risk. Point Shares has Davis and Reynolds at #49 and #126, respectively. But why is Chris Davis’s ADP 67 in ESPN and Reynolds is being drafted at 208?
The reality is that anyone taken in lower rounds is going to hurt you somewhere. People seem to be scared off a low average more than low HRs/RBIs. Not sure why. You can take a really good SP and Reynolds; say C-Bill or Beckett and Reynolds. Or you can draft Davis and Andy Sonnanstine. Hmm… Maybe that’s Mark Reynolds in Chuck Norris’s ice cream truck.
This was, as they say in Italy, an Experto Callaspo AL-Only draft. What AL-Only means to me? Thanks for asking, random italicized voice. It means I probably won’t have one pitcher that I would usually have in a mixed league. I contemplated about how I wanted to go about this draft. It’s good to have a game plan, ya know? So I decided, since I don’t really like AL pitchers, I would get solid pitchers anyway. Zoinks! I figured that solid pitchers would be at a premium and if I got my share, I’d be in good shape. Also, from my knowledge of other ‘pert drafts, no one drafts starters early, so while they’re zigging, I decided to zag. “Knowing your opponents’ weaknesses is half the duel,” Aaron Burr. When you see my pitchers, you’ll see I didn’t really get that many great ones, but for AL-Only I have a top three pitching staff going into the season. Then there’s the strategy I employed for hitters. I decided to punt catchers, of course, and up the middle. Punting the MIs was because I knew who I wanted late and I knew guys like Alexei Ramirez would go way early (He went in the 2nd round.) Okay, before I get to my thoughts I jotted down during the AL-Only draft, here’s my co-conspirators:
Fantasy Baseball Dugout
The Fantasy Man
Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
Rotohelp
Sporting News
ProFantasy Baseball
Roto Central
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Sports R Us
Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Fanball
Here’s my team:
C: Taylor Teagarden (19)
1B: Carlos Pena (3)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (15)
SS: Jed Lowrie (11)
3B: Brandon Wood (12)
MI: Wilson Betemit (23)
CI: Jason Giambi (10)
OF: Carlos Quentin (1)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Vernon Wells (5)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (14)
OF: Brett Gardner (16)
UT: DeWayne Wise (25)
P: James Shields (4)
P: Joba Chamberlain (6)
P: John Danks (7)
P: Brad Ziegler (8)
P: Brandon Lyon (9)
P: Anthony Reyes (13)
P: Dan Wheeler (17)
P: Kevin Millwood (18)
P: Rafael Betancourt (22)
Bench: Melky Cabrera (20), Wladimir Balentien (21), Matt Thornton (24), Jeremy Sowers (26), Damaso Marte (27)
Notes I jotted down during the draft:
ROUND 1 & 2 – I get Carlos N Carl with my first two picks. Yuck. Seriously, I hate AL-Only. I have no idea where all the good players have gone, but I think it’s into the NL. (To make matters worst, I drafted the first five rounds, then we needed to do it over because something was wrong with the draft room. (I once loved you, CBS! Nevermore.) Then, to make matters even worse, our do over was supposed to be a shot by shot remake of the original, but someone decided to make it an adaptation. At one point, one of the ‘perts asked another ‘pert if they could see they were giving them the middle finger. Fun times!)
ROUND 3 – I wanted lots of power from my corners. That became a pipe dream when Aubrey Huff was drafted ahead of me in the 3rd (!) round. Drafting Carlos Pena in the third round is a tragic-comedy.
ROUND 4 – James Shields. It was between him and Liriano. And I got to draft both at one point, but that was the first AL-Only ‘pert draft that we will never speak of again. Actually, I’m pleased with Shields.
ROUND 5 – Vernon Wells. This is barely an endorsement of Wells, but he was the last outfielder that’s halfway reliable and he’s supposed to be healthy by April. Of course, that will turn into June any day now.
ROUND 6 – Joba Chamberlain. This is really all I needed for my AL-Only staff and the next guy is gluttony at its worst.
ROUND 7 – John Danks. Hey, Gluttony, good to see you. Okay, before you call me out for this. Here’s the guys that were taken after him that I could’ve had:
Kevin Slowey – I want Danks over him. You do too.
Nick Swisher – Okay, but doesn’t have a secure job and will bat .240.
Mike Jacobs – I already drafted the Latin Jacobs.
Orlando Cabrera – Eh.
Denard Span – Blah.
Frank Francisco – Solid pick.
Scott Baker – On the risky pitcher list.
Troy Percival – Too early for him.
Fausto Carmona – Danks is twice the pitcher of Carmona.
Carlos Gomez – Great pick, but because of Crawford I couldn’t have made it.
Gavin Floyd then Joe Saunders then Crapolanco… You get my point.
ROUND 10 – Jason Giambi. Carlos Pena’s baby daddy.
ROUND 11 & 12 – Jed Lowrie and Brandon Wood. A) They have the superfecta of eligibility, which is crucial for a single league. B) They have upside. C) Would you really have wanted Crapolanco and Orlando Cabrera over these two? D) As T.J. Lavin would say, “They are both killing it in spring training.” (Speaking of T.J. Lavin, The Challenge is back in two weeks. I can’t wait.)
ROUND 13 – Anthony Reyes. This could be the steal of the draft. Or a guy I drop by May. Stay tuned!
ROUND 14 – The Big FraGu. At this point in the draft, there wasn’t even a lot of guys who had starting jobs let alone one that could go 15/15. Granted, my average is in the dumpster at this point.
ROUND 15 – As…DRUBAL! I almost took him in the 10th round, but I quickly saw where everyone else’s team stood with middle infielders and I realized I could wait. This is Grey. This is Grey on his toes. (BTW, it’s really sad when you get this excited about Asdrubal Cabrera. It’s AL-Only. Small victories.)
ROUND 19 – Taylor Teagarden. Honestly, I don’t know what his playing time will be like, but if he hits 10 HRs, I win with this pick. Not to mention, he’s a better defender, so he could see 250+ ABs. Think Napoli last year.
ROUND 21 – We like to Wladdy… We like to Wladdy…
ROUND 23 – Wilson Betemit. I think he hits 15 HRs in a super-utility role. Or flat-out takes over for Josh Fields. Or I drop him and fill-in my MI spot with someone else. At this point, Punto, Bobby Crosby and Zobrist were being drafted so this pick is really no harm, no foul.
ROUND 26 – Jeremy Sowers. For this late in the draft to get a starter on a good team– Oh, who am I kidding? I’ll probably drop him by April 7th.
Where have all the groin pulls gone? In my day, you pulled a hammy or a groin, and you liked it! Now, these kids are all about obliques. What in tarnation is an oblique? Where is it? Is it even in your body? Do you acquire it in some seedy alley in Tijuana? Hurt your femur, dang’nabbit! So Trevor Hoffman is laid up for a few with a strained oblique. He’ll probably miss the first week of the season and, as with old people, they don’t bounce back like they used to, even with tennis balls on their walker. So Trevor Hoffman might be out for longer than a week, then this injury might turn out to be a recurring injury that knocks him out for a week every month or so. Who knows? I don’t even know what an oblique is, but it sounds vague. Filling in for Hoffman might be Todd Coffey (my personal favorite), Carlos Villanueva (having a rough spring) and Seth McClung (bit more of a not-so-great starter than a not-so-great reliever). I’d backup Hoffman with McClung, Coffey then Villanueva, in that order. I don’t think Villanueva with his lack of closer experience and poor spring is getting the call. Coffey is wild, homer-prone and jittery, but has looked none of that in the spring. Then we have McClung, who sounds like a mouth breather. I’m thinking it’s McClung. Could be Coffey. I’d grab them both until it sorts itself out. But don’t pull too many important Jenga pieces from your team just to place McClung and/or Coffey on top. Hoffman is still the closer when healthy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:
Wilson Betemit – Hit his 5th HR of the spring. Warning, I just drafted Betemit in an AL-Only league (I’ll reveal my team later today — Future Voila, snitches!), so I might make Betemit a bit of a poster boy for a week or two. Hey, I gotta have weird outside-the-box-they-make-no-damn-sense sleepers too, right? Oh, and even with five homers, Josh Fields is still outshining him.
Krispie Young – There’s a chance he opens the year hitting third. Yum!
Mike Napoli – Might start the year on the DL. Doesn’t change his projections. He hit 20 HRs last year in, like, 24 at-bats.
Rich Hill – Won’t be in the Orioles starting rotation. Shocker!
Max Scherzer – Someone in the comments yesterday said the D’backs are going to give Jobacum 170 innings this year. That’s pretty silly. (Not silly that a commenter said this. Silly because it’s true.) Josh Byrnes, how is he not related to Eric, said Scherzer would get close to 170 innings. 170 innings?! I keep writing it because it’s so unfathomable to me. This could be huge for this year, but this could have terrible consequences down the line. Oh, and how huge for 2009? That could push him over 200 Ks for this year. You’re looking at a potential top ten starter if he gets 170 innings.
Wandy Rodriguez – Continuing to nurse injuries. It’s still very early; I’m still on the Wand-wagon.
I already did the catchers, 2nd basemen, shortstops, 3rd basemen, outfielders and starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball. I skipped the 1st basemen on purpose because I don’t think you should be taking a flier on 1st basemen. You need some anchors for your hitting. Then someone commented yesterday asking for the 1st basemen to target and the course of Razzball history was changed forever, like when Marty got into that DeLorean. I haven’t changed my mind that you shouldn’t be taking a flier on a 1st basemen, but sometimes things are out of your control or you need a corner man or a Utility guy. This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball. If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections. Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:
Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs. Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff. Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause. Duncan, “And you know that!”
Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275. Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.
Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs. See how that worked.
James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson? Rhetorical!
Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year. ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs. That seems doable. He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP. He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.
Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time. I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year. The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.
Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs. I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009. Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average. He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training. Exciting, huh? Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th. He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits. What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training? Mr. Grapefruit. He’s not just hot. He’s not just red hot. He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.
Who Knew? Apparently, everyone. I may have been the only one rooting for Aaron Heilman; Lou definitely was not. Well, open that window and throw Heilman out. Sean Marshall has been named the Cubs fifth starter. As I said somewhere in the comments in the last couple of days, I like whoever comes away with the 5th starter job for the Cubs. They’re gonna win games. Know what I mean, Paula Dean? But what can we actually expect from Sean Marshall? Well, let’s put it this way since we’re talking about the Cubbies. I’d prefer to have Sean Marshall on my fantasy team for where he’s going to be drafted compared to Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden or Ryan Dempster. From Marshall, you should expect a low 4 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and decent Ks. As with any fifth starter, Sean “Puffy” Marshall may get skipped on occasion, but he’ll also face off against lower tier starters potentially helping him with wins. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:
Chris Getz – We move over to the South Side and stay with the Chi-Town theme. Getz will be the starting 2nd baseman gig for The Pale Hose. He’ll probably bat 9th or 1st depending on the breeze that is circulating through Ozzie’s office. Unlike Marshall, I don’t get Getz. If he gets 500 ABs, maybe he reaches 7 HRs and 10 SBs. If you’re thinking those numbers look a lot like Kelly Johnson, you wouldn’t be too far off. Only Getz could hurt you in average as well as RBIs and Runs if he bats ninth. In AL-Only leagues and deep leagues, I could see you looking, but the league would need to be Cousteau deep. For what it’s worth, ZIPS likes him more giving him about 10/12 and .275 (they only gave him 393 ABs, so I’m projecting their stats up). I think you’ll be miserable if you own him.
Chris Perez – Sticking with the newly-established Chris theme, Perez was shutdown. This seals the deal on him not opening the season as the Cards closer. Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin are still battling it out. I think it goes into the season with those two sharing duties until one guy pulls away. If one guy pulls away. Motte has better stuff, so he’s more attractive. Franklin has seniority, so LaRussa does what he do.
John Lannan – Will be the Nats opening day starter. I sure hope his family can get seats!
Marlon Byrd – Hit his first home run of the spring. I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. If Byrd and Murphy do a righty/lefty split, they could produce 20/20 numbers in a daily league platoon.
Francisco Cordero – Coco Cordero is looking like Coco B. Ware. Maybe he’s favoring his ankle, maybe he’s just trying to give you agita. He’s still very much the closer. All he needs to do is turn in one solid performance and he’ll be deemed fine. Well, one solid performance not followed by two lousy outings.
John Danks – 17/4 K/BB this spring. As I said in my starters to watch, Danks is one of the few AL pitchers I’d look at late in mixed leagues.
Josh Outman – Recognize, aptronym! Unrecognize, A’s starter. Recognize, there’s five seats on the A’s rotation bus and everyone that can throw a baseball is playing musical chairs. Unrecog– Oh, forget it. Outman’s pitching well in spring training.
