C:  Mike Napoli
C:  Brandon Inge
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Ryan Theriot
MI: Felipe Lopez
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Carlos Quentin
OF: Adam Dunn
OF: Cameron Maybin
OF: Ryan Spilborghs
UT: Fred Lewis
Bench: Colby Rasmus

P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Felix Hernandez
P: Scott Kazmir
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Erik Bedard
P: Troy Percival
P: Wandy Rodriguez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Fernando Rodney
Bench: Kenshin Kawakami, Joey Devine, Chad Cordero, David Aardsma
DL: Max Scherzer

OVERALL THOUGHTS:

First off, this league is 5×5 with SLG and OBP instead of HRs and Average.  We put up a bit of a fight to have that changed, but our protests fell on deaf ears.  With those two category changes, it makes our Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn selections even purdier.  Put them up to the light; they shine!  It doesn’t help the Inge selection that much, but a bit.

We selected eleventh overall and Miguel Cabrera almost made it to us in the first round after Manny Ramirez was taken 4th and Jimmy Rollins was taken 6th.  As confusing as Manny was in the 4 slot, it wasn’t as confusing as Rollins over Howard, Miggy, Braun, Utley and Sizemore.

Pitchers flew off the board in this league.  To give you an idea, Nolasco, Beckett, Billingsley and Lackey all went in the 6th round.  (This was after Lackey’s injury had surfaced.)  We decided to go with the upside of Kazmir and F-Her.  (Note:  We drafted Devine prior to the injury announcement.)

All told, we drafted 5 Mariners.  Sucky guys on sucky teams is the new black!  Luckily, Endy Chavez was not one of the drafted Mariners.  (When Don Wakamatsu named Brandon Morrow the closer, we dropped two of our Mariners.  Betcha you can guess which two.)

Our team is well-balanced with power and speed.  And we have Felipe Lopez, what’s not to love?  Our pitching is riskier than either of us would’ve preferred, but neither of us wanted to get caught up in a run with pitchers flying off the shelves that early.  In a 12 team league, we should be able to fix potential pitching holes with waiver wire pickups.

ROUNDS 1/2 – I turn on my draft thingie to find I’m drafting 15th out of 15 teams. Sweet.  I prefer the corner. Gives me time to go on a Mad Dog 20/20 run between picks. Since I’m the corner, I’m going to combine my pick recaps. I take two predictable guys (Carlos Beltran and Prince Fielder) as two guys above me predictably grab Hamilton and Longoria.  Whatever, I wish my fellow drafters nothing but love, peace and Rickie Weeks.

ROUNDS 3/4 – Of course Pedroia and Manny go quickly.  There’s nowhere for them to go but up. /sarcasm  I’m hoping for Quentin to come back to me, but it’s a pipe dream with 15 teams choosing twice before I go again.  I dropped some hints about Rios in the chat to see if I could persuade people away from CQ.  Oh, well, Quentin was taken three picks before me.  I was surprised he lasted that long.  Went with Jake Peavy and Alexei Ramirez.  As everyone knows I love Peavy and at the 45th pick overall it’s hard to refuse when Lincecum and Santana were off the board at 20 and 21, respectively.  As for Alexei at 46th, he has 2nd base and SS eligibility in Y!  and I like him better than Pedroia who went almost 30 picks prior.  If you didn’t know, now you do.

ROUNDS 5/6 – Third basemen are flying off in this round leaving me looking at Huff.  Blech!  I’ve decided sometime after my third draft this year that I’m punting 3rd basemen.  I refuse to reach for Davis.  2009 is the Year of the 3rd Baseman Flier for me.  There wasn’t much appealing to me for these two picks.  I decided I could use something safe and something Bruce.  I went Dan Uggla and Jay Bruce.  My average is in the dumpster by this point, but I’m not going to worry about it right now.

ROUNDS 7/8 – I’m hoping at this point to solidify my outfield because of the Bruuuuce upside pick.  I’m looking at Raul Ibanez and I’m actually finding him appealing.  Weird!  I also like Broxton right here too, but, alas, someone else liked him right before me.  I end up with Raul Ibanez and Yovani Gallardo.  See, this is the thing about having the 15th pick, you know that you might have to reach a little bit for guys you want.  Gallardo wasn’t getting back to me and I’ve been taking Cain in every other league and that gets boring.

ROUNDS 9/10 – All right, I need a closer in one of these two picks.  Then again Ryan, Jenks, Marmol, Qualls, Bell and Devine are all on the board.  I might pass on relievers again.  There goes Ryan, Marmol, Jenks and Devine… Somebody’s been reading my mind — no fair!  I took Chad Qualls and Brad Hawpe.  As for Hawpe, in a league this shallow (no Corner or Middle Infidel), I figured I’d stock up on safe HRs/RBIs wherever possible.

ROUNDS 11/12 – I will be reaching for Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds with my next picks for a Utility and 3rd baseman because I need steals and my average is in the caboose already.  But I have a long wait… Off to the bodega for a bottle of cheap wine.  Okay, back and buzzed.  Wow, Reynolds and Gomez are both still there… But in front of the bodega, a homeless man said something to me that was pretty prophetic, “Everyone fears bad averages.  They’ll be around for your next two picks.  Oh, and could you spare a buck, I’m trying to finish up my Master’s in Sociology–” “Sorry, gotta run!”   I decided to try the homeless guy’s advice on for size and went with Heath Bell and Josh Johnson.

ROUNDS 13/14 – Homeless Post-Grad Student was right!  Why does everyone fear a poor average so much?  Ah, for another day, I suppose.  Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds, you are mine!

ROUNDS 15/16 – For some reason, no one drafts Chien-Ming Wang anymore.  Or maybe they never did.  Guys chosen before him – Saunders and Ben Sheets.   Double shot of blech.  Anyway, it worked for my team because I have K-heavy pitchers on teams that might not win a whole lot and because I can’t refuse closers this late… Huston Street.  Warm up the DL slot!

ROUNDS 17/18 – Ramon Hernandez has been at the top of my queue forever now and I’m getting sick of looking at him.  250-some-odd picks in, I’ll take a potential 20 HRs catcher and another closer, Brandon Lyon.  (NOTE:  He was still the closer at this point.  But so was Corpas, so one out two ain’t bad.)

ROUNDS 19/20 – Fred Lewis.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!  Then I was looking at Aaron Cook and Pettitte, but decided to go with the upside of Anthony Reyes.  A few picks I liked this round, Josh Fields, Jed Lowrie, Kendry Morales and Colby Rasmus.  Great upside picks.

ROUNDS 23 – (Omitted Rounds 21/22. As said earlier, Mark Lowe and Todd Coffey are no longer on the team. So sad.)  With my last pick, I took Kelvim Escobar.  Not even really sure how he lasted this long.  Sure, he’s injury-prone, but he’s that much worse than Wandy Rodriguez? Crickets. Hmm… Maybe he is, but at the 345th pick I’ll take this schmohawk every day of the week and twice on Muesday.

Andy posted all the rosters as well as some Q&A over in this post.  It’s a good read.  Some post-draft thoughts:

• 16-team drafts take FOREVER if you’re picking on one of the ends.  We were 14th.  Luckily, Grey and I tag-teamed it and kept ourselves entertained with a running commentary on the picks.
• You either have to be a little more flexible in 16 team leagues or be willing to accept bad value.  We ended up following our BRAN Strategy but had to improvise when Peavy and Webb failed to reach us with the 46th pick (3rd round).  We ended up mirroring my FantasyPros911 NL-only draft from a week ago and going Catcher crazy.  McCann was at the top of both our catcher lists and we liked him better than settling for Haren.  We ended up snagging Pablo Sandoval (C-eligible in Y! leagues) in the 8th round as we were incredulous that he was still available (guys like Napoli were coming off the board by the 10th round).
• These guys were middle infielder crazy:  Furcal in the 4th.  Figgins, Tulo, and Uggla in the 5th.  Cano, Jeter, and Michael Young in the 6th.  You get the idea.  Never thought twice about waiting it out.  Like Kelly Johnson in the 9th round (122nd pick).  Freddy Sanchez (19th round) and Elvis Andrus (20th round) should chip in for AVG and SB respectively.
• Outfield dries up quick in a league this big.  You know it’s bad when you’re forced to draft Frenchy in the 17th round.  But Beltran/McLouth/Maybin/Lewis are a solid first four and felt Rasmus in round 22 (something like pick #340) is a nice upside play.
• Not loving our pitching staff.  I like our Shields/Cain/Cueto troika less than my 12-team NL of Volquez/Cain/Scherzer.  I hope Carmona doesn’t make me look bad for championing him in the 16th round.  At least our relief situation is solid with Lidge, Francisco, and Devine (edit: doh!).

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

I’ll cover the FantasyPros911 12-Team NL Blogger League in this post and cover the Yahoo! Roto Arcade 16-team mixed league in a separate one.

For those unfamiliar with FantasyPros911, they are running two expert leagues but relegated us to the ’2nd division’ as revenge for being good friends with Chuck D who has been (unfairly) critical of their site.  Anyway, we were delighted to have the opportunity to test our fantasy baseballin’ skillz  with the other fine fantasy bloggers in this league.  (Complete draft results here)

It was the traditional auction style draft where you have $260 for your roster and 7 reserve picks (we’re still trying to finish up the last 2 rounds).  While I think my player values were right on (especially after comparing against the NL LABR Draft), I had a few missteps on draft strategy and execution.  I went in with a strategy of getting players at or below my estimated value and avoid big buck players in favor of a balanced squad.  My fellow bloggers helped me avoid any temptations to draft a top player by overbidding just about every top player.  Hanley went for a ridunkulous $54 (my valuation $39).  Albert Pujols for $49 (my valuation $36).  David Wright went for $48 (my valuation $41).  Jose Reyes for $45 (my valuation $38).  You get the idea.  This left me on the sidelines in the beginning except when it came to drafting catchers.  I don’t particularly like investing $ or high draft choices on catchers because they get more time off, have greater injury risk, and tend to slow down in the 2nd half.  But you have to mix things up a bit when 24 catchers are slotted to be drafted and I only had 13 at 300+ ABs.  After I got outbid for Brian McCann ($27), I snagged Russ Martin and Geovanny Soto for a combined $40 (I valued them at a combined $60).

After the first wave of great players, the bidding got more tentative and I started spending my dollars pretty quickly.  My biggest mistake was failing to realize you can’t move players down to your Reserve.  I survived clogging my 1B slot with a $3 Nick Johnson by snagging Cantu for my 1B/3B slot.  I lucked out after stupidly clogging my SS spot with Aaron Miles (I started and ended the bidding at $1) by snagging Alex Gonzalez in the reserve draft.  My early giddiness at getting Maybin for $13 might have led to risky OF bids on Colby Rasmus ($8) and Andrew McCutchen ($3).  Of course these guys could earn their value (they got drafted at the same $ in NL LABR) but I exposed myself to too much risk and could’ve used a safer, higher AVG guy to balance off Uggla and Reynolds.  I minimized some of that risk by snagging Seth Smith in COL with the first reserve pick but if these guys end up spending the 1st half either in the minors or on the bench, I’m in trouble.

As for pitching, I’m very happy with my starting staff.  I would’ve loved to anchor the staff with a Santana, Peavy, or Webb but I got two potential aces in Volquez and Cain for the price of one of those guys.  I’ll be lucky to get 150 IP out of Scherzer ($11) but I like him better than Cueto and Parra (both who went for $9).  I overpaid for Maine as it was later in the draft but had the money at the time.  Liking my depth at SP with Randy Wolf, Phillie prospect J.A. Happ and a Petco Park pitcher in Baek.  Not psyched about my relief crew of Francisco Cordero, Huston Street, and the two ugly options in STL (Franklin, McClellan) but hopefully I can get a couple points out of them.

I’ll write a couple posts throughout the year with updates from this league.  If I win, I get to move up to the ‘pert division in 2010.  I’m all a-tingle!

The preceding was a fancy way of saying, “USE YOUR WAIVER CLAIM!”  (Caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder.)  Who gives an effin’ eff in the eff hole what waiver claim position you’re in?  While you’re holding onto your waiver claim like Cowboy Jon from The Real World: Los Angeles holds onto his virginity, your leaguemates are going to be winning your league.  Because, guess what, Maverick?  Cowboy Jon is still a virgin and he’s like 45!

You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Matt Wieters comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing a catcher.   Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder?  Who are you, John Q. Law?  This is your job, why?  Wait, even better.  If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league.   If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him.  While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.  Remember…. Rebels been rebels since I don’t know WHEN… And all she wants to do is dance!

Matt Wieters – I’ve been saying all along that he’s headed to the minors.  So one out of two ain’t bad.  Wieters will be flying into Norfolk International Airport sometime on Monday night.  Looks like another financial decision.  He should be back with the club by mid-May.  If you drafted him, you have to wait on him.  Well, I mean you don’t have to, but what was the point otherwise.  When Gregg Zaun heard the news, he should have had this to say, “If getting demoted so I can start doesn’t kick you in the pants, nothing will.”

Daniel Murphy – I’ve been too lax in mentioning this guy.  Word out of the foothills of St. Lucie is Murphy is batting 2nd.  This is great news for a guy who rocks a solid OBP.  He could be the Mets answer to Kelly Johnson.  It’s more attractive at 2nd base, but there’s a place on some teams for that in the outfield.

Ervin Santana – Rudy told you 20 risky pitchers.  Ervin was one.  You didn’t wanna believe it.  It’s the ‘fro, yo!  (Easy, TCBY.  That’s not fro-yo.)

Shawn Hill – Someone in the comments nicknamed him Baby Webb.  I have no idea why, but Baby Webb is now on the Padres.  Um, a pitcher I like pitching in Petco?  Give me a pen and show me the X.

Kelvim Escobar – He made Rudy’s bounceback pitchers post.  He says you’re welcome.

Tommy Hanson – Maybe he’ll be back in September.  Cut him outside of keepers.

Rafael Soriano – Going to the DL.  In other news, Chipper’s probably hurt too.

Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg – Lou will decide this weekend if the Cubs want to begin the year by giving up runs in the eighth or the ninth.

Todd Helton – Retire for the sake of the Rockies.

John Lackey – Forearm tightness.  This is almost as surprising as the Soriano injury.  I’d never expect more than 25 starts from Lackey.

Justin Duchscherer – To start season on the DL?  No way! *Grey turns off faux shock*

Chris Davis – In spring, hitting bombs, striking out and taking names.  And that’s what you should expect in the season, too.

Anderson Hernandez – Hurt.  You can’t keep Ronnie Belliard down!

Felipe Lopez – Going to be leading off and he wants to steal a lot of bases.  He’s already stolen 44 in a season.  He’s eligible all over.  I’m thinking of taking him 13 times in my next draft.

David Aardsma – I suppose he could win the closer job in Seattle, but… David Aardsma?  Eh.

Ryan Braun – He’s hurting right now.  He’s not saying anything because he’s a gamer, but he’s unable to swing a bat.  Frankly, I’m a bit worried.  It was one thing for him to have issues last September, but now they’re returning in April.  I’d still draft him in the first round, but I’d expect a slow start.

Scott Lewis – Him and Anthony Reyes might deserve their own posts, but they’re not getting them just yet.  Scott Lewis doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but then he put up numbers in the minors like he does.  I’d prefer a NL fifth starter (think: Randy Wolf) over a guy with a mid-80s fastball pitching in the AL.  Oh, and he gives up flyballs.  Pass.

Anthony Reyes – I’m a bit of a sucker for a failed prospect making good on old promises (See continuing admiration for Alex Gordon).  Don’t even get me started with my love for guys that iron their hat brim.  So it comes with little shock, I like Reyes.  I like him more than the aforementioned Lewis.  Again, I prefer to go NL in mixed leagues when this deep into starters and I wouldn’t own Reyes in a ten team league yet, but he has good stuff.  He’s an injury risk so don’t pay too much.  Actually, don’t pay anything for either of these guys.  You should be dropping lame bench hitters to take a chance on Reyes.  I see Ryan Church.  I dump Ryan Church for Anthony Reyes.

Micah Owings – You never know how these things turn out.  Fifth starter on the Reds emerges?  Could be.  I’d own him before two other Reds starters.

George Sherrill – He’s choking on turkey bones so far this spring and this year he has Chris Ray to step in and resume closer duties.  Chris Ray may be getting saves as soon as mid-April.

Brian Fuentes – Every year some closers come out of nowhere and erase any faith we had in them coming into the year.  I think this year is Fuentes’s.  His velocity is way down because of a bad back.  Bad backs linger and velocity issues don’t just go away.  With two quality replacements behind him, I think if you own Fuentes, you might want to start making other plans.

Dallas McPherson – Punt.

Adam Jones – Ty Wigginton, “Dude, you totally bogarted my whole box of Twinkies!”  Adam Jones, “Mea culpa, my man.  I was out stealing bags and hitting home runs this spring, and every time I looked up I would see Felix and Adam and I kept reading Pie Eaton.”

Welcome to the first annual p0rk burn “Point/Counter-Point.” As the winner of the seminal Razzball Commenter League I’ve graciously been given the opportunity to write a post. As I’m neither funny nor knowledgeable, this was the only way I’d get my name on the Razzball marquee. While a point/counter-point format typically includes two people with opposite talking points, I’ve been warped by law school and am now able to pretend (for the right price) to believe two contradicting points at the same time. Not only does this allow me to make money being a jerk for a living, in this instance it has the added benefit of allowing me to not share the bully pulpit.

When I proposed a league among the commenters last season I was sure it would be fun but I didn’t expect half the response it received. For those of you that weren’t able to participate last year I’m excited to see the idea has spawned a new tradition.

The four of you still reading are going to learn my dirty little secret – I don’t know what I’m doing. I don’t use a slide rule or player projections to make decisions because I was too poor to go to The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston – I was stuck choosing between Topeka Fantasy Baseball A&M or a diploma mill like the University of Phoenix.  Instead, I decided to save my money for important things, like microwaveable burritos and sweet haircuts.  As such, my approach is simpler and summed up by “don’t have crappy players on your team.” This strategy has worked in the past, so the lack of actual methodology doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of competence. The trick is in properly bumbling your way to victory.

1. Use the experts to your advantage

• Let (some of) them do the work for you: most people don’t have time to come up with their own player projections and instead rely on advice from the lucky people that do. Some of you visit Razzball.com for more than the quality writing, right? Its ok to leave some of the work to the experts, just be careful who you rely on. Grey and Rudy? Good choice. Karabell and any of the hacks at Yahoo? Kiss your season goodbye.

• Use “expert” advice to your advantage:  I believe in do-it-yourself fantasy baseball. It’s a much more rewarding experience to take what the experts say and distill it. You wouldn’t drink sour mash would you? Taking the advice most of your league mates are relying on and using it against them is like turning sour mash into Jack Daniel’s: it sure is fun while it lasts and, rarely, you wake up with a fat chick – as long as your friends don’t catch you riding the scooter its all good. Use the advice that’s out there to see which players the other managers will overpay for. Since most people get their information from the same pool of advice they are going to be easy to take advantage of. Razzball calls this “zigging when they are zagging.” Just try to stay away from the fat chicks. And scooters. The Jack Daniels is your call, we don’t judge here.

2. Don’t forget why you are playing

• The point is to have fun: unless the point is to win the money your sucker friends paid to play (that’s gambling and is illegal so nobody here is doing that anyways). First and foremost, you should enjoy playing the game, otherwise it’s like work except you aren’t getting paid. I don’t know about you but the only reason I go to work is the paycheck. If having fun means drafting a team composed solely of players with mustaches, knock yourself out. Also ask Grey for advice, I bet he has some pointers for you.

• Play to win the game: To cross my sports references, Herm Edwards said it best. Having fun is well and good but it’s a lot more fun when you can make fun of people. Playing to win makes the game that much sweeter. Even if your team happens to suck and you’re the one being made fun of, keep playing competitively. There is nothing worse in a league than the managers that gave up and aren’t setting rosters.

3. Intangibles

• Play with the heart: it goes back to playing for fun but you should make a few moves based on your gut and emotions. If you think a player is posed to have a breakout year but you can’t think of a single reason why, say screw it and draft him. Don’t use this approach to draft Pedro Martinez in the first round, but a lot of your team’s performance is going to be out of your hands. The one thing you can control is how you feel about the players on the team. I picked Dan Uggla up off the waiver wire early in his rookie season for the sole reason that I lived in Miami and wanted to have a player I could root for while watching Marlins games. He became something of a mascot (coincidentally, for significant stretches the Mariner Moose will give you better stats) and the fact that my team won the championship was even better because he was there.

• To win you need to play smart: the margin between winning and losing is often exceedingly small. Fantasy baseball is a game of cold hard numbers and there simply isn’t room on a winning team for feel-good stories. Most feel-good stories don’t end up like Josh Hamilton. After that first season with Uggla I made it a point to have him on my teams which entailed reaching a round or two for him. When we drafted the RCL I fought the urge and decided to draft him where he deserved to go – and didn’t end up with him. I won the league by half a point. That wouldn’t have happened if Uggla had been on the team.

4. Making Moves

• Active managers are champs: after the draft, the only reasonable place to get talent for free is to find a gem among the schmoes on the waiver wire. Last season Carlos Quentin was largely undrafted and Alexei Ramirez was unheard of. Knowing then what you know now, don’t you wish you had picked them up? Don’t be afraid to cut players loose if a better deal is out there. Generally, at least a third of the players on my teams at the end of any season weren’t on the opening day roster. Maybe I just suck at drafting. To do this properly you need to figure out who has historically underperformed and is now playing at their real level of talent; conversely, don’t pick up the players that historically were playing at their actual level of suckitude and are now enjoying a streak of good luck.

• Being an active manager is an easy way to get hosed: Even though it is said time and again, you have to remember that baseball is a game of averages. Dealing someone (or dropping them for a waiver wire pickup) during the middle of a cold spell can be a good way to end up stuck with the worst part of their season and miss out on their production. Don’t cut ties with a guy just because he hasn’t had a decent game in a few weeks. Instead, sit him on the bench and plug in someone else until he comes around. Similarly, don’t try to score a player because you think he’ll keep up his monster numbers; boys and girls, we call that overpaying. The start of Dan Uggla’s season last year was real nice – too bad he balanced it out with June through September. Hamilton also cooled off quite a bit. Chances are at the end of the year the managers that traded for those guys early were wishing they had the players they gave away in the deal.

Following this advice will in no way guarantee you a championship. If you’re in the Original Recipe division with me I strongly recommend you disregard this entire post. Everybody should find their own approach to the game and make it work for them. Most importantly, keep coming to Razzball.com to see what you should really do – just remember to make sure the author wasn’t p0rk burn.

Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

Player A – Last season, 95/17/71/.303/29
Player B – Last season, 112/22/66/.280/12

Player A is Johnny Damon, Player B is Curtis Granderson

Player A – In 362 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/4/39/.285/23
Player B – In 379 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/5/31/.253/21

Player A is Alex Rios, Player B is Carlos Gomez

Player A – In 248 at-bats Post-All Star, 36/9/39/.278/9
Player B – In 268 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/9/25/.299/13

Player A is Krispie Young, Player B is Matt Kemp.

Player A – In 218 at-bats Post-All Star, 42/9/36/.335/3
Player B – In 198 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/10/37/.288/3

Player A is Andre Ethier, Player B is Mark DeRosa

Player A – In 557 at-bats last year, 66/15/84/.293/7
Player B – In 575 at-bats last year, 80/10/69/.290/14

Player A is Garrett Anderson, Player B is Delmon Young

Player A – In 356 at-bats last year, 52/15/42/.250/1
Player B – In 340 at-bats last year, 53/20/55/.235/2

Player A is Justin Upton, Player B is Jim Edmonds.  This is not an endorsement of Jim Edmonds, but a warning on Upton.

Player A – In 502 at-bats last year, 74/17/61/.249/6
Player B – In 461 at-bats last year, 59/22/73/.260/6

Player A is Jeremy Hermida, Player B is Cody Ross

Player A – In 221 at-bats Post-All Star, 30/7/29/.299/11
Player B – In 231 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/4/20/.290/15

Player A is Lastings Milledge, Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury

Player A – In 247 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/11/35/.296/2
Player B – In 251 at-bats Post-All Star, 43/9/29/.311/14

Player A is Josh Hamilton, Player B is Shane Victorino… VICTORINO!

I projected Chris Davis for 75/30/95/.275/3 and Reynolds at 75/31/100/.255/7.   To take me out of the equation, ZIPS projects Mark Reynolds for 88/28/89/.257/8 and Chris Davis for 84/33/103/.263/6.  Um, those numbers are pretty close for each player.  Both play in hitter’s parks, so there’s not much of an edge there.  Davis has shown he has a greater propensity for line drives so his average should be better than Reynolds, but those projections account for that.  Davis is a .260-.280 hitter.  Reynolds is a .240-.260 hitter.

Now if they both hit .260, they’re more or less equal.  If Davis hits .263 and Reynolds hits .250, then the impact of Chris Davis’s AVG on your team vs. Mark Reynolds is .001 (if you assume the real difference is .013 and they are one of 13 hitters on your team.)  Then you have to realize Davis’s projections carry more risk.  Point Shares has Davis and Reynolds at #49 and #126, respectively.  But why is Chris Davis’s ADP 67 in ESPN and Reynolds is being drafted at 208?

The reality is that anyone taken in lower rounds is going to hurt you somewhere.  People seem to be scared off a low average more than low HRs/RBIs.  Not sure why.  You can take a really good SP and Reynolds; say C-Bill or Beckett and Reynolds.  Or you can draft Davis and Andy Sonnanstine.  Hmm… Maybe that’s Mark Reynolds in Chuck Norris’s ice cream truck.

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Here’s my team:

C:  Taylor Teagarden (19)
1B: Carlos Pena (3)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (15)
SS: Jed Lowrie (11)
3B: Brandon Wood (12)
MI: Wilson Betemit (23)
CI:  Jason Giambi (10)
OF: Carlos Quentin (1)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Vernon Wells (5)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (14)
OF: Brett Gardner (16)
UT: DeWayne Wise (25)
P:  James Shields (4)
P:  Joba Chamberlain (6)
P:  John Danks (7)
P:  Brad Ziegler (8)
P:  Brandon Lyon (9)
P:  Anthony Reyes (13)
P:  Dan Wheeler (17)
P:  Kevin Millwood (18)
P:  Rafael Betancourt (22)
Bench: Melky Cabrera (20), Wladimir Balentien (21), Matt Thornton (24), Jeremy Sowers (26), Damaso Marte (27)

Notes I jotted down during the draft:

ROUND 1 & 2 – I get Carlos N Carl with my first two picks.  Yuck.  Seriously, I hate AL-Only.  I have no idea where all the good players have gone, but I think it’s into the NL. (To make matters worst, I drafted the first five rounds, then we needed to do it over because something was wrong with the draft room. (I once loved you, CBS!  Nevermore.)  Then, to make matters even worse, our do over was supposed to be a shot by shot remake of the original, but someone decided to make it an adaptation.  At one point, one of the ‘perts asked another ‘pert if they could see they were giving them the middle finger.  Fun times!)

ROUND 3 – I wanted lots of power from my corners.  That became a pipe dream when Aubrey Huff was drafted ahead of me in the 3rd (!) round.  Drafting Carlos Pena in the third round is a tragic-comedy.

ROUND 4 – James Shields. It was between him and Liriano.  And I got to draft both at one point, but that was the first AL-Only ‘pert draft that we will never speak of again.  Actually, I’m pleased with Shields.

ROUND 5 – Vernon Wells.  This is barely an endorsement of Wells, but he was the last outfielder that’s halfway reliable and he’s supposed to be healthy by April.  Of course, that will turn into June any day now.

ROUND 6 – Joba Chamberlain.  This is really all I needed for my AL-Only staff and the next guy is gluttony at its worst.

ROUND 7 – John Danks.  Hey, Gluttony, good to see you.  Okay, before you call me out for this. Here’s the guys that were taken after him that I could’ve had:

Kevin Slowey – I want Danks over him.  You do too.
Nick Swisher – Okay, but doesn’t have a secure job and will bat .240.
Mike Jacobs – I already drafted the Latin Jacobs.
Orlando Cabrera – Eh.
Denard Span – Blah.
Frank Francisco – Solid pick.
Scott Baker – On the risky pitcher list.
Troy Percival – Too early for him.
Fausto Carmona – Danks is twice the pitcher of Carmona.
Carlos Gomez – Great pick, but because of Crawford I couldn’t have made it.
Gavin Floyd then Joe Saunders then Crapolanco… You get my point.

ROUND 10 – Jason Giambi.  Carlos Pena’s baby daddy.

ROUND 11 & 12 – Jed Lowrie and Brandon Wood.  A) They have the superfecta of eligibility, which is crucial for a single league.  B) They have upside.  C) Would you really have wanted Crapolanco and Orlando Cabrera over these two?  D) As T.J. Lavin would say, “They are both killing it in spring training.”  (Speaking of T.J. Lavin, The Challenge is back in two weeks.  I can’t wait.)

ROUND 13 – Anthony Reyes. This could be the steal of the draft.  Or a guy I drop by May.  Stay tuned!

ROUND 14 – The Big FraGu.  At this point in the draft, there wasn’t even a lot of guys who had starting jobs let alone one that could go 15/15.  Granted, my average is in the dumpster at this point.

ROUND 15 – As…DRUBAL!  I almost took him in the 10th round, but I quickly saw where everyone else’s team stood with middle infielders and I realized I could wait.  This is Grey.  This is Grey on his toes.  (BTW, it’s really sad when you get this excited about Asdrubal Cabrera.  It’s AL-Only.  Small victories.)

ROUND 19 – Taylor Teagarden.  Honestly, I don’t know what his playing time will be like, but if he hits 10 HRs, I win with this pick.  Not to mention, he’s a better defender, so he could see 250+ ABs.  Think Napoli last year.

ROUND 21 – We like to Wladdy… We like to Wladdy…

ROUND 23 – Wilson Betemit.  I think he hits 15 HRs in a super-utility role.  Or flat-out takes over for Josh Fields.  Or I drop him and fill-in my MI spot with someone else.  At this point, Punto, Bobby Crosby and Zobrist were being drafted so this pick is really no harm, no foul.

ROUND 26 – Jeremy Sowers.  For this late in the draft to get a starter on a good team– Oh, who am I kidding?  I’ll probably drop him by April 7th.

Wilson Betemit – Hit his 5th HR of the spring.  Warning, I just drafted Betemit in an AL-Only league (I’ll reveal my team later today — Future Voila, snitches!), so I might make Betemit a bit of a poster boy for a week or two.  Hey, I gotta have weird outside-the-box-they-make-no-damn-sense sleepers too, right?  Oh, and even with five homers, Josh Fields is still outshining him.

Krispie Young – There’s a chance he opens the year hitting third.  Yum!

Mike Napoli – Might start the year on the DL.  Doesn’t change his projections.  He hit 20 HRs last year in, like, 24 at-bats.

Rich Hill – Won’t be in the Orioles starting rotation.  Shocker!

Max Scherzer – Someone in the comments yesterday said the D’backs are going to give Jobacum 170 innings this year.  That’s pretty silly. (Not silly that a commenter said this.  Silly because it’s true.)  Josh Byrnes, how is he not related to Eric, said Scherzer would get close to 170 innings.  170 innings?!  I keep writing it because it’s so unfathomable to me.  This could be huge for this year, but this could have terrible consequences down the line.  Oh, and how huge for 2009?  That could push him over 200 Ks for this year.  You’re looking at a potential top ten starter if he gets 170 innings.

Wandy Rodriguez – Continuing to nurse injuries.  It’s still very early; I’m still on the Wand-wagon.

Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs.  Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff.  Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause.  Duncan, “And you know that!”

Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275.  Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.

Casey Kotchman – Kendry Morales minus 3 home runs.

Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs.  See how that worked.

James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson?  Rhetorical!

Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year.  ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs.  That seems doable.  He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP.  He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.

Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time.  I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.  The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.

Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs.  I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009.  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.  He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training.  Exciting, huh?  Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th.  He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits.  What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training?  Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s not just hot.  He’s not just red hot.  He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.

Chris Getz – We move over to the South Side and stay with the Chi-Town theme.  Getz will be the starting 2nd baseman gig for The Pale Hose.  He’ll probably bat 9th or 1st depending on the breeze that is circulating through Ozzie’s office.  Unlike Marshall, I don’t get Getz.  If he gets 500 ABs, maybe he reaches 7 HRs and 10 SBs.  If you’re thinking those numbers look a lot like Kelly Johnson, you wouldn’t be too far off.  Only Getz could hurt you in average as well as RBIs and Runs if he bats ninth.  In AL-Only leagues and deep leagues, I could see you looking, but the league would need to be Cousteau deep.  For what it’s worth, ZIPS likes him more giving him about 10/12 and .275 (they only gave him 393 ABs, so I’m projecting their stats up).  I think you’ll be miserable if you own him.

Chris Perez – Sticking with the newly-established Chris theme, Perez was shutdown.  This seals the deal on him not opening the season as the Cards closer.  Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin are still battling it out.  I think it goes into the season with those two sharing duties until one guy pulls away.  If one guy pulls away.  Motte has better stuff, so he’s more attractive.  Franklin has seniority, so LaRussa does what he do.

John Lannan – Will be the Nats opening day starter.  I sure hope his family can get seats!

Marlon Byrd – Hit his first home run of the spring.  I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating.  If Byrd and Murphy do a righty/lefty split, they could produce 20/20 numbers in a daily league platoon.

Francisco Cordero – Coco Cordero is looking like Coco B. Ware.  Maybe he’s favoring his ankle, maybe he’s just trying to give you agita.  He’s still very much the closer.  All he needs to do is turn in one solid performance and he’ll be deemed fine.  Well, one solid performance not followed by two lousy outings.

John Danks – 17/4 K/BB this spring.  As I said in my starters to watch, Danks is one of the few AL pitchers I’d look at late in mixed leagues.

Josh Outman – Recognize, aptronym!  Unrecognize, A’s starter.  Recognize, there’s five seats on the A’s rotation bus and everyone that can throw a baseball is playing musical chairs.  Unrecog–  Oh, forget it.  Outman’s pitching well in spring training.

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey!  This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke.  In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors.  In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP.  At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope.  Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough.  He’s not going to explode for power suddenly.  20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling.  So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you.  The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals.   For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

J.R. Towles – There goes that opp.  Pudge signed a one year deal with the Astros.  Wait, what about Humberto Something Or Other?!  He had a future, I tell ya.

Ivan Rodriguez – Do all the kids out there know Pudge isn’t meant to be an ironic nickname?  Just because the Astros signed this schmohawk doesn’t mean you should.  Ever.  He’s C to the Rap.

Ryan Braun – Same injury that slowed in September has returned.  I think he’ll be fine, but it’s enough to knock him below Miggy and Sizemore on your draft sheets.  Wait, I already him after them on my top 100.  Hey, I’m a fortune teller!

Manny Ramirez – Aggravating his hamstring while aggravating his owners.  He’ll play fine when he wants to.  Read:  July, it has a great ending.

Matt Lindstrom – Seriously, get on the Leo Nunez bandwagon before someone else does.  You think this is nothing, but you thought it was nothing when Jon Rauch replaced Chad Cordero last year.

Justin Duchscherer – Let’s see if we got this right, Dooksheer is hurt?  No way!  I think he might start 5 games all year.  I’m not exaggerating.  I said this more or less over a month ago in the top 60 starters post.  Berry might have ESPN, but I got ESP.  Natch!

Vernon Wells – Good ol’ VW thinks he’ll be ready on Opening Day.  Here’s what he’ll say sometime around May 15th, “It’s just a mild strain.  I’ll be back in 15 days.”  Here’s what he’ll say two weeks after that, “It’s not healing how I would’ve hoped.  I think I should be back by the All-Star Break.”  After the All-Star Break, Ricciardi goes on record with, “We hope to have Vernon back by August.”  In August, Vernon returns for a final solid month before pulling his oblique.

Joey Devine – Devine’s nursing something… Not a baby giraffe from what I can gather.  Brad Ziegler seems to have this locked up for Opening Day.

Huston Street/Manny Corpas – It may come down to the final days to decide the closer.  I think Corpas ends up with more saves on the year because Street will get injured even if he secures the job.  In other news, Billy Beane has some AIG stock he’s trying to unload.

Jeff Samardzija – He’s done with that whole starting business.  Until Harden gets hurt.  May!  On the for realz, I wouldn’t own Samardzija in any league.  Not right now at least.

Shawn Hill – Like a two year old’s poo, Hill’s looking solid so far.  I’m telling you, if he can stay healthy he could be a huge sleeper.  But you do what you do.  What, I’m gonna beg?  Nah, Charlie.  Not me.

After Milledge spent fourteen/sixteenths of his 2008 vomiting onto Bowden’s Segway, from August to October, Milledge spent his time polishing those same wheels.  In the last 50+ games, he beat his early season numbers, hitting 7 home runs and stealing 11 with a .318 average.  You can refer to him the same way you refer to the guy who works at Home Depot, “Hey, Toolsy!”  He’s also a Bowden Fluffer.  According to the Razzball Glossary, a Bowden Fluffer is defined as a young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools.  Rarely lives up to the promise.  Named after ex-Nationals GM Jim Bowden who had a boner for these types of players.  So, if you draft Lastings Milledge in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, it could mean a cheap 20/20 hitter, but, most importantly, Jim Bowden will get wood.  And where he’s going, he might need it.  As I said in the top 40 outfielders for 2009 post, Lastings Milledge has promise for this year and he’s definitely a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future.  Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday.  During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage.  For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings.  If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs.  Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine?  Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs.  Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be?  You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15?  Who are you, Kelly Johnson?  That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.

Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months.  Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer.  Yes, he looks like a child molester.  It’s just matter of him getting healthy.  He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest.  If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft.  Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him.  No harm, no foul.

Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.

Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring.  He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs.  With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year.  That’s not me jumping ship.  I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.

Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far.  If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.

Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early.  He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers.  Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base.  If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.

Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday.  If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.

Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen.  Stay on fire, Emmanuel.  Papadapolis will save you.

There are a number of intriguing bounceback candidates in 2008 (Bedard, Wainwright, Bonderman, etc.) so we thought we’d look back over the past couple of years to see if there were any learnings that can help in assessing this year’s crop.

We focused the analysis on pitchers who went from 2,500+ MLB pitches in 2004-2007 to < 2,000 MLB pitches in the following year (so no pitchers like Yovani Gallardo who are coming off injuries but haven’t thrown a 2,500+ pitch season or guys who just had a bad year like Aaron Harang).  If the pitcher fell under 2,000 pitches because they were moved into a primary relief role, they were removed.   To keep it fantasy relevant, we required a 4.50 or less FIP in the 2,500+ pitch year.  We then looked at the year after the ‘down’ year and determined it a success if they managed at least 2,500 pitches and a FIP no more than 0.50 greater than the earlier full season.

This doesn’t seem like it would be rare in the age of Tommy John Surgery but it’s evidently tough to bounce back.  Of the 29 candidates, only 4 bounced back successfully the next year.  A 5th pitcher bounced back in 2 years.  The successful ones were:

2005/2006/2007 – Curt Schilling, Kelvim Escobar

2005/2006/2007/2008 -Zack Greinke

2006/2007/2008 – Zach Duke, Randy Johnson

The list of failed comeback stories reads as follows (year represents failed bounceback year):

2006 – Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Rich Harden (note: bounced back 4 years later), John Thomson, Odalis Perez, Mike Hampton

2007 – John Patterson, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Mark Prior, Glendon Rusch, Josh Towers, Matt Clement, Brian Lawrence, Brett Tomko, Gustavo Chacin, Victor Zambrano, Mark Mulder, Jason Johnson, Tomo Ohka

2008 – Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Johnson, Jason Jennings, Clay Hensley

Many on this list were avoidable come draft day but I’m sure several of these players may induce winces from prior years’ useless draft picks.  So looking at the five successes, what do they have in common?

• Pitched in September/October of ‘down’ year – 4 of the 5 (Randy Johnson excluded) pitched in the prior September with three of them (Schilling, Escobar, Greinke) pitching in relief.  A positive sign that they had gotten through most of their rehab (mental in Greinke’s case) and could be ready by the beginning of the following season.  Only 11 of the 24 who failed in their comeback pitched in September/October.
• Non-Arm Injuries – 3 of the 5 (Escobar and Duke excluded) had non-arm/oblique injuries – Schilling (ankle), Randy Johnson (back), Zack Greinke (mental).  Only 2 of the 24 failures had non-arm injuries (John Thomson – finger, David Wells – knee).

My initial feeling was that the better pitchers were more likely to have successful comebacks. But only 2 of the 5 successful comebacks had less than a 4.00 FIP in their last strong year while 13 of the 24 failures had sub-4.00 FIP.

On the Tommy John front, it’s common knowledge that it takes a pitcher about 18 months to fully recover.  But there aren’t as many success stories among MLB starting pitchers as you’d think.  Mike Hampton (2005) and Victor Zambrano (2006) never came all the way back.  John Smoltz (2000) and Ryan Dempster (2003) returned strongly but initially as relievers.  John Lieber (2002) and AJ Burnett (2003) are recent pitchers who had success within 2 years of Tommy John surgery.

So let’s take a look at the bounceback contenders for 2009.  Despite the poor track record of comeback pitchers, I feel a little irrationally exuberant about this bunch.  The key is that it worth rolling the dice on either your 4th or 5th starter on a guy who can be great.  You can always get the dull, safe ones via the FA wire.

Joe Mauer – He’s injured.  If I were a spiteful person, I would say it serves you right for drafting Mauer.  Not sure why anyone drafts this guy, but he’s struggling with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  He’s not going to steal any bases this year, so you’re basically drafting a no-speed Polanco at catcher in the first 8 rounds.  Eh, you do what you do.  I’m done getting aggravated.

Manny Corpas – Would it surprise you to hear Huston Street is struggling with injuries and Corpas now can take over the closer’s role?  If it would surprise you, welcome to baseball.  See Wikipedia for further information.

Ryan Spilborghs – He’s pulling away in the race for the Rockies leadoff spot.

Tyler Walker – Might still be the answer for, “Who will get more than 15 saves this year for the Mariners?”

Jose Reyes – Will again be batting leadoff.  And this is the number one reason why I don’t put too much stock into spring training news.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) is doing nothing to win the 1st base job.  Bodes well for McPherson.

Chris Duncan – He’s winning an OF job for Saint Louie.  Now if he can just avoid his brother’s high-fives.

J.R. Towles – He took my vote of confidence in the catchers to target post last week and spat in its face.  He’s doing everything to lose the job.

Chipper Jones – Injured himself in the WBC.  And taco diarrhea still burns.

C:  Jeff Clement
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Alexei Ramirez
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Chris Davis
MI:  Mark DeRosa
CI: Ryan Zimmerman
OF: Carlos Lee
OF: Matt Kemp
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Andre Ethier
OF: Shin-Soo Choo
UT: Elijah Dukes

P: Chad Billingsley
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Adam Wainwright
P: Matt Cain
P: Jose Valverde
P: Josh Johnson
P: Matt Capps
P: Joel Hanrahan
P: Wandy Rodriguez

BENCH:
P: Chris Ray
P: Jason Motte
P: Octavio Dotel

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.

Player A – In 395 Pre-All Star at-bats, 67/9/47/.314/9
Player B – In 372 Pre-All Star at-bats, 53/15/58/.280/19

Player A is Dustin Pedroia, Player B is Brandon Phillips.

Player A – Last season, 103/21/87/.285/6
Player B – Last season, 86/21/99/.286/1

Player A is Mark DeRosa, Player B is Garrett Atkins

Player A – In 77 at-bats in September, 15/2/22/.416
Player B – Cherrypicking this player’s best month of April where they had 107 at-bats, 16/3/17/.280/2

Player A is Asdrubal Cabrera, Player B is Orlando Hudson

Player A – In 340 ABs last season, 43/3/37/.306/11 — Largely drafted.
Player B – In 298 ABs last season, 46/3/28/.245/17 — Largely undrafted and rightfully so.
Player C – In 375 ABs last season, 58/6/33/.293/20 — Largely undrafted.

Player A is Howie Kendrick, Player B is Luis Castillo, Player C is Kaz Matsui.

Player A – In 120 at-bats Post-All Star, 18/4/13/.258/3
Player B – In 175 at-bats Post-All Star, 31/6/22/.263/6

Player A is Ian Kinsler, Player B is Rickie Weeks.

Cust Kayin’.

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

David Ortiz is old for players of his girth.  Take Mo Vaughn, for instance. (I take Mo Vaughn everywhere and he always finds his way home — oofa!)  Big Mo was knocking down Cask ‘n Flagon Sammy A’s with the best of them until he no longer was.  Look at Mo Vaughn’s most similar by age. (BTW, do you ever find yourself losing like 3 hours of a day in the Baseball-Reference site?  Yeah, me too.)

Before there was Big Papi there was Big Mo…. It’s sad, but true.  Mo Vaughn took a pretty major dump after the age of 31.  Ortiz’s age 30 year was 54/119/.332 then, at age 31, he went 35/117/.332.  Last year at age 32, Ortiz went 23/89/.264.  This year he’s going to be a Latin 33.  Mo Vaughn’s career end was rushed along by injuries.  Um, Ortiz has been healthy?  In Spring Training, Ortiz has already been complaining of shoulder soreness.  Then you throw in Ortiz has no position eligibility…. Ugh, people.  Seriously.  What do you want from me?  My last Hot Pocket?  Just do me a favor and avoid David Ortiz in your 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

Nelson Cruz – He’s never hit well in the majors for longer than a month.  He’s had lots of opportunities.  Might be the Ludwick pick of the draft or might be on waivers by the 2nd week in April.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  These are your decisions.

Cameron Maybin – Could be a cheap Victorino without the average.  Not a cheap Victorian, i.e. Is she using rat tails to tie up her bodice? Then again, perhaps Maybin is Carlos Lee with less power, more speed and no average.  Or he’s just Mike Cameron.

Fred Lewis – Giants hit him third in a spring training game.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!

Ryan Spilborghs – If he’s the starter then he deserves a spot on NL-Only teams, but I really wish he’d break something to open the door for Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ian Stewart or…

Dexter Fowler – Should be the Rockies center fielder.  Will he?  Doubtful, but in keeper leagues, you should own him leaving your draft.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is going to get his chance to put up 15/15 numbers.

Delmon Young – It’s still very early in spring training and I try not to pay too much attention just yet to who’s hitting well, but Young is hitting well.

Shin-Soo Choo – Get on the Shin-Soo Choo train.

Elijah Dukes -  As long as he doesn’t flip out and prove Carl Jung right about aptronyms, you’ll be fine.  For what it’s worth, Carl Jung was never very good at fantasy baseball.

Justin Upton – I put him last because I want to highlight him.  Justin Upton could take the biggest jump of anyone on this list.  He has the potential to be a number two outfielder while being drafted as a four or a five.  His ceiling is, “Superstar.”

Ryan Zimmerman -  “For today’s game of Jew or Not a Jew… Ryan Zimmerman.”

Pablo Sandoval – He’s not fat, he’s jolly.  I still prefer him more as a catcher, but in deep leagues I could see the case made for Sandoval as a 3rd baseman, especially with the loss of A-Rod.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball blogger’s perennial sleeper.

Mark Reynolds – Capable of 30 HRs and 10 steals.  I will call you bizarro, low average, swing-happy David Wright.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – If only he didn’t play his home games in Petco… To paraphrase Bubb Rubb, “Woooooo…”

Joe Mather – Troy Glaus’s replacement until Glaus returns (read: May or much later).  CHONE projects Mather for 19 HRs and 6 steals with a .253 average, but that’s in 415 ABs.  Last year in Triple-A, Mather crushed the ball hitting 17 HRs and batting .303 in only 59 games.  Then again, that was in the offense-minded PCL.  Just looking at the numbers, Mather profiles to me like mini-Glaus.  Some pop, low average.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit 25 homers and bat .240 over an entire season.  It also wouldn’t be unlikely to see Glaus stay unhealthy with his old man shoulder.  Act like you know, MC Lyte!