C:  Mike Napoli
C:  Brandon Inge
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Ryan Theriot
MI: Felipe Lopez
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Carlos Quentin
OF: Adam Dunn
OF: Cameron Maybin
OF: Ryan Spilborghs
UT: Fred Lewis
Bench: Colby Rasmus

P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Felix Hernandez
P: Scott Kazmir
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Erik Bedard
P: Troy Percival
P: Wandy Rodriguez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Fernando Rodney
Bench: Kenshin Kawakami, Joey Devine, Chad Cordero, David Aardsma
DL: Max Scherzer

OVERALL THOUGHTS:

First off, this league is 5×5 with SLG and OBP instead of HRs and Average.  We put up a bit of a fight to have that changed, but our protests fell on deaf ears.  With those two category changes, it makes our Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn selections even purdier.  Put them up to the light; they shine!  It doesn’t help the Inge selection that much, but a bit.

We selected eleventh overall and Miguel Cabrera almost made it to us in the first round after Manny Ramirez was taken 4th and Jimmy Rollins was taken 6th.  As confusing as Manny was in the 4 slot, it wasn’t as confusing as Rollins over Howard, Miggy, Braun, Utley and Sizemore.

Pitchers flew off the board in this league.  To give you an idea, Nolasco, Beckett, Billingsley and Lackey all went in the 6th round.  (This was after Lackey’s injury had surfaced.)  We decided to go with the upside of Kazmir and F-Her.  (Note:  We drafted Devine prior to the injury announcement.)

All told, we drafted 5 Mariners.  Sucky guys on sucky teams is the new black!  Luckily, Endy Chavez was not one of the drafted Mariners.  (When Don Wakamatsu named Brandon Morrow the closer, we dropped two of our Mariners.  Betcha you can guess which two.)

Our team is well-balanced with power and speed.  And we have Felipe Lopez, what’s not to love?  Our pitching is riskier than either of us would’ve preferred, but neither of us wanted to get caught up in a run with pitchers flying off the shelves that early.  In a 12 team league, we should be able to fix potential pitching holes with waiver wire pickups.

ROUNDS 1/2 – I turn on my draft thingie to find I’m drafting 15th out of 15 teams. Sweet.  I prefer the corner. Gives me time to go on a Mad Dog 20/20 run between picks. Since I’m the corner, I’m going to combine my pick recaps. I take two predictable guys (Carlos Beltran and Prince Fielder) as two guys above me predictably grab Hamilton and Longoria.  Whatever, I wish my fellow drafters nothing but love, peace and Rickie Weeks.

ROUNDS 3/4 – Of course Pedroia and Manny go quickly.  There’s nowhere for them to go but up. /sarcasm  I’m hoping for Quentin to come back to me, but it’s a pipe dream with 15 teams choosing twice before I go again.  I dropped some hints about Rios in the chat to see if I could persuade people away from CQ.  Oh, well, Quentin was taken three picks before me.  I was surprised he lasted that long.  Went with Jake Peavy and Alexei Ramirez.  As everyone knows I love Peavy and at the 45th pick overall it’s hard to refuse when Lincecum and Santana were off the board at 20 and 21, respectively.  As for Alexei at 46th, he has 2nd base and SS eligibility in Y!  and I like him better than Pedroia who went almost 30 picks prior.  If you didn’t know, now you do.

ROUNDS 5/6 – Third basemen are flying off in this round leaving me looking at Huff.  Blech!  I’ve decided sometime after my third draft this year that I’m punting 3rd basemen.  I refuse to reach for Davis.  2009 is the Year of the 3rd Baseman Flier for me.  There wasn’t much appealing to me for these two picks.  I decided I could use something safe and something Bruce.  I went Dan Uggla and Jay Bruce.  My average is in the dumpster by this point, but I’m not going to worry about it right now.

ROUNDS 7/8 – I’m hoping at this point to solidify my outfield because of the Bruuuuce upside pick.  I’m looking at Raul Ibanez and I’m actually finding him appealing.  Weird!  I also like Broxton right here too, but, alas, someone else liked him right before me.  I end up with Raul Ibanez and Yovani Gallardo.  See, this is the thing about having the 15th pick, you know that you might have to reach a little bit for guys you want.  Gallardo wasn’t getting back to me and I’ve been taking Cain in every other league and that gets boring.

ROUNDS 9/10 – All right, I need a closer in one of these two picks.  Then again Ryan, Jenks, Marmol, Qualls, Bell and Devine are all on the board.  I might pass on relievers again.  There goes Ryan, Marmol, Jenks and Devine… Somebody’s been reading my mind — no fair!  I took Chad Qualls and Brad Hawpe.  As for Hawpe, in a league this shallow (no Corner or Middle Infidel), I figured I’d stock up on safe HRs/RBIs wherever possible.

ROUNDS 11/12 – I will be reaching for Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds with my next picks for a Utility and 3rd baseman because I need steals and my average is in the caboose already.  But I have a long wait… Off to the bodega for a bottle of cheap wine.  Okay, back and buzzed.  Wow, Reynolds and Gomez are both still there… But in front of the bodega, a homeless man said something to me that was pretty prophetic, “Everyone fears bad averages.  They’ll be around for your next two picks.  Oh, and could you spare a buck, I’m trying to finish up my Master’s in Sociology–” “Sorry, gotta run!”   I decided to try the homeless guy’s advice on for size and went with Heath Bell and Josh Johnson.

ROUNDS 13/14 – Homeless Post-Grad Student was right!  Why does everyone fear a poor average so much?  Ah, for another day, I suppose.  Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds, you are mine!

ROUNDS 15/16 – For some reason, no one drafts Chien-Ming Wang anymore.  Or maybe they never did.  Guys chosen before him – Saunders and Ben Sheets.   Double shot of blech.  Anyway, it worked for my team because I have K-heavy pitchers on teams that might not win a whole lot and because I can’t refuse closers this late… Huston Street.  Warm up the DL slot!

ROUNDS 17/18 – Ramon Hernandez has been at the top of my queue forever now and I’m getting sick of looking at him.  250-some-odd picks in, I’ll take a potential 20 HRs catcher and another closer, Brandon Lyon.  (NOTE:  He was still the closer at this point.  But so was Corpas, so one out two ain’t bad.)

ROUNDS 19/20 – Fred Lewis.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!  Then I was looking at Aaron Cook and Pettitte, but decided to go with the upside of Anthony Reyes.  A few picks I liked this round, Josh Fields, Jed Lowrie, Kendry Morales and Colby Rasmus.  Great upside picks.

ROUNDS 23 – (Omitted Rounds 21/22. As said earlier, Mark Lowe and Todd Coffey are no longer on the team. So sad.)  With my last pick, I took Kelvim Escobar.  Not even really sure how he lasted this long.  Sure, he’s injury-prone, but he’s that much worse than Wandy Rodriguez? Crickets. Hmm… Maybe he is, but at the 345th pick I’ll take this schmohawk every day of the week and twice on Muesday.

Andy posted all the rosters as well as some Q&A over in this post.  It’s a good read.  Some post-draft thoughts:

• 16-team drafts take FOREVER if you’re picking on one of the ends.  We were 14th.  Luckily, Grey and I tag-teamed it and kept ourselves entertained with a running commentary on the picks.
• You either have to be a little more flexible in 16 team leagues or be willing to accept bad value.  We ended up following our BRAN Strategy but had to improvise when Peavy and Webb failed to reach us with the 46th pick (3rd round).  We ended up mirroring my FantasyPros911 NL-only draft from a week ago and going Catcher crazy.  McCann was at the top of both our catcher lists and we liked him better than settling for Haren.  We ended up snagging Pablo Sandoval (C-eligible in Y! leagues) in the 8th round as we were incredulous that he was still available (guys like Napoli were coming off the board by the 10th round).
• These guys were middle infielder crazy:  Furcal in the 4th.  Figgins, Tulo, and Uggla in the 5th.  Cano, Jeter, and Michael Young in the 6th.  You get the idea.  Never thought twice about waiting it out.  Like Kelly Johnson in the 9th round (122nd pick).  Freddy Sanchez (19th round) and Elvis Andrus (20th round) should chip in for AVG and SB respectively.
• Outfield dries up quick in a league this big.  You know it’s bad when you’re forced to draft Frenchy in the 17th round.  But Beltran/McLouth/Maybin/Lewis are a solid first four and felt Rasmus in round 22 (something like pick #340) is a nice upside play.
• Not loving our pitching staff.  I like our Shields/Cain/Cueto troika less than my 12-team NL of Volquez/Cain/Scherzer.  I hope Carmona doesn’t make me look bad for championing him in the 16th round.  At least our relief situation is solid with Lidge, Francisco, and Devine (edit: doh!).

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

I’ll cover the FantasyPros911 12-Team NL Blogger League in this post and cover the Yahoo! Roto Arcade 16-team mixed league in a separate one.

For those unfamiliar with FantasyPros911, they are running two expert leagues but relegated us to the ’2nd division’ as revenge for being good friends with Chuck D who has been (unfairly) critical of their site.  Anyway, we were delighted to have the opportunity to test our fantasy baseballin’ skillz  with the other fine fantasy bloggers in this league.  (Complete draft results here)

It was the traditional auction style draft where you have $260 for your roster and 7 reserve picks (we’re still trying to finish up the last 2 rounds).  While I think my player values were right on (especially after comparing against the NL LABR Draft), I had a few missteps on draft strategy and execution.  I went in with a strategy of getting players at or below my estimated value and avoid big buck players in favor of a balanced squad.  My fellow bloggers helped me avoid any temptations to draft a top player by overbidding just about every top player.  Hanley went for a ridunkulous $54 (my valuation $39).  Albert Pujols for $49 (my valuation $36).  David Wright went for $48 (my valuation $41).  Jose Reyes for $45 (my valuation $38).  You get the idea.  This left me on the sidelines in the beginning except when it came to drafting catchers.  I don’t particularly like investing $ or high draft choices on catchers because they get more time off, have greater injury risk, and tend to slow down in the 2nd half.  But you have to mix things up a bit when 24 catchers are slotted to be drafted and I only had 13 at 300+ ABs.  After I got outbid for Brian McCann ($27), I snagged Russ Martin and Geovanny Soto for a combined $40 (I valued them at a combined $60).

After the first wave of great players, the bidding got more tentative and I started spending my dollars pretty quickly.  My biggest mistake was failing to realize you can’t move players down to your Reserve.  I survived clogging my 1B slot with a $3 Nick Johnson by snagging Cantu for my 1B/3B slot.  I lucked out after stupidly clogging my SS spot with Aaron Miles (I started and ended the bidding at $1) by snagging Alex Gonzalez in the reserve draft.  My early giddiness at getting Maybin for $13 might have led to risky OF bids on Colby Rasmus ($8) and Andrew McCutchen ($3).  Of course these guys could earn their value (they got drafted at the same $ in NL LABR) but I exposed myself to too much risk and could’ve used a safer, higher AVG guy to balance off Uggla and Reynolds.  I minimized some of that risk by snagging Seth Smith in COL with the first reserve pick but if these guys end up spending the 1st half either in the minors or on the bench, I’m in trouble.

As for pitching, I’m very happy with my starting staff.  I would’ve loved to anchor the staff with a Santana, Peavy, or Webb but I got two potential aces in Volquez and Cain for the price of one of those guys.  I’ll be lucky to get 150 IP out of Scherzer ($11) but I like him better than Cueto and Parra (both who went for $9).  I overpaid for Maine as it was later in the draft but had the money at the time.  Liking my depth at SP with Randy Wolf, Phillie prospect J.A. Happ and a Petco Park pitcher in Baek.  Not psyched about my relief crew of Francisco Cordero, Huston Street, and the two ugly options in STL (Franklin, McClellan) but hopefully I can get a couple points out of them.

I’ll write a couple posts throughout the year with updates from this league.  If I win, I get to move up to the ‘pert division in 2010.  I’m all a-tingle!

The preceding was a fancy way of saying, “USE YOUR WAIVER CLAIM!”  (Caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder.)  Who gives an effin’ eff in the eff hole what waiver claim position you’re in?  While you’re holding onto your waiver claim like Cowboy Jon from The Real World: Los Angeles holds onto his virginity, your leaguemates are going to be winning your league.  Because, guess what, Maverick?  Cowboy Jon is still a virgin and he’s like 45!

You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Matt Wieters comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing a catcher.   Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder?  Who are you, John Q. Law?  This is your job, why?  Wait, even better.  If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league.   If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him.  While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.  Remember…. Rebels been rebels since I don’t know WHEN… And all she wants to do is dance!

Matt Wieters – I’ve been saying all along that he’s headed to the minors.  So one out of two ain’t bad.  Wieters will be flying into Norfolk International Airport sometime on Monday night.  Looks like another financial decision.  He should be back with the club by mid-May.  If you drafted him, you have to wait on him.  Well, I mean you don’t have to, but what was the point otherwise.  When Gregg Zaun heard the news, he should have had this to say, “If getting demoted so I can start doesn’t kick you in the pants, nothing will.”

Daniel Murphy – I’ve been too lax in mentioning this guy.  Word out of the foothills of St. Lucie is Murphy is batting 2nd.  This is great news for a guy who rocks a solid OBP.  He could be the Mets answer to Kelly Johnson.  It’s more attractive at 2nd base, but there’s a place on some teams for that in the outfield.

Ervin Santana – Rudy told you 20 risky pitchers.  Ervin was one.  You didn’t wanna believe it.  It’s the ‘fro, yo!  (Easy, TCBY.  That’s not fro-yo.)

Shawn Hill – Someone in the comments nicknamed him Baby Webb.  I have no idea why, but Baby Webb is now on the Padres.  Um, a pitcher I like pitching in Petco?  Give me a pen and show me the X.

Kelvim Escobar – He made Rudy’s bounceback pitchers post.  He says you’re welcome.

Tommy Hanson – Maybe he’ll be back in September.  Cut him outside of keepers.

Rafael Soriano – Going to the DL.  In other news, Chipper’s probably hurt too.

Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg – Lou will decide this weekend if the Cubs want to begin the year by giving up runs in the eighth or the ninth.

Todd Helton – Retire for the sake of the Rockies.

John Lackey – Forearm tightness.  This is almost as surprising as the Soriano injury.  I’d never expect more than 25 starts from Lackey.

Justin Duchscherer – To start season on the DL?  No way! *Grey turns off faux shock*

Chris Davis – In spring, hitting bombs, striking out and taking names.  And that’s what you should expect in the season, too.

Anderson Hernandez – Hurt.  You can’t keep Ronnie Belliard down!

Felipe Lopez – Going to be leading off and he wants to steal a lot of bases.  He’s already stolen 44 in a season.  He’s eligible all over.  I’m thinking of taking him 13 times in my next draft.

David Aardsma – I suppose he could win the closer job in Seattle, but… David Aardsma?  Eh.

Ryan Braun – He’s hurting right now.  He’s not saying anything because he’s a gamer, but he’s unable to swing a bat.  Frankly, I’m a bit worried.  It was one thing for him to have issues last September, but now they’re returning in April.  I’d still draft him in the first round, but I’d expect a slow start.

Scott Lewis – Him and Anthony Reyes might deserve their own posts, but they’re not getting them just yet.  Scott Lewis doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but then he put up numbers in the minors like he does.  I’d prefer a NL fifth starter (think: Randy Wolf) over a guy with a mid-80s fastball pitching in the AL.  Oh, and he gives up flyballs.  Pass.

Anthony Reyes – I’m a bit of a sucker for a failed prospect making good on old promises (See continuing admiration for Alex Gordon).  Don’t even get me started with my love for guys that iron their hat brim.  So it comes with little shock, I like Reyes.  I like him more than the aforementioned Lewis.  Again, I prefer to go NL in mixed leagues when this deep into starters and I wouldn’t own Reyes in a ten team league yet, but he has good stuff.  He’s an injury risk so don’t pay too much.  Actually, don’t pay anything for either of these guys.  You should be dropping lame bench hitters to take a chance on Reyes.  I see Ryan Church.  I dump Ryan Church for Anthony Reyes.

Micah Owings – You never know how these things turn out.  Fifth starter on the Reds emerges?  Could be.  I’d own him before two other Reds starters.

George Sherrill – He’s choking on turkey bones so far this spring and this year he has Chris Ray to step in and resume closer duties.  Chris Ray may be getting saves as soon as mid-April.

Brian Fuentes – Every year some closers come out of nowhere and erase any faith we had in them coming into the year.  I think this year is Fuentes’s.  His velocity is way down because of a bad back.  Bad backs linger and velocity issues don’t just go away.  With two quality replacements behind him, I think if you own Fuentes, you might want to start making other plans.

Dallas McPherson – Punt.

Adam Jones – Ty Wigginton, “Dude, you totally bogarted my whole box of Twinkies!”  Adam Jones, “Mea culpa, my man.  I was out stealing bags and hitting home runs this spring, and every time I looked up I would see Felix and Adam and I kept reading Pie Eaton.”

Welcome to the first annual p0rk burn “Point/Counter-Point.” As the winner of the seminal Razzball Commenter League I’ve graciously been given the opportunity to write a post. As I’m neither funny nor knowledgeable, this was the only way I’d get my name on the Razzball marquee. While a point/counter-point format typically includes two people with opposite talking points, I’ve been warped by law school and am now able to pretend (for the right price) to believe two contradicting points at the same time. Not only does this allow me to make money being a jerk for a living, in this instance it has the added benefit of allowing me to not share the bully pulpit.

When I proposed a league among the commenters last season I was sure it would be fun but I didn’t expect half the response it received. For those of you that weren’t able to participate last year I’m excited to see the idea has spawned a new tradition.

The four of you still reading are going to learn my dirty little secret – I don’t know what I’m doing. I don’t use a slide rule or player projections to make decisions because I was too poor to go to The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston – I was stuck choosing between Topeka Fantasy Baseball A&M or a diploma mill like the University of Phoenix.  Instead, I decided to save my money for important things, like microwaveable burritos and sweet haircuts.  As such, my approach is simpler and summed up by “don’t have crappy players on your team.” This strategy has worked in the past, so the lack of actual methodology doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of competence. The trick is in properly bumbling your way to victory.

1. Use the experts to your advantage

• Let (some of) them do the work for you: most people don’t have time to come up with their own player projections and instead rely on advice from the lucky people that do. Some of you visit Razzball.com for more than the quality writing, right? Its ok to leave some of the work to the experts, just be careful who you rely on. Grey and Rudy? Good choice. Karabell and any of the hacks at Yahoo? Kiss your season goodbye.

• Use “expert” advice to your advantage:  I believe in do-it-yourself fantasy baseball. It’s a much more rewarding experience to take what the experts say and distill it. You wouldn’t drink sour mash would you? Taking the advice most of your league mates are relying on and using it against them is like turning sour mash into Jack Daniel’s: it sure is fun while it lasts and, rarely, you wake up with a fat chick – as long as your friends don’t catch you riding the scooter its all good. Use the advice that’s out there to see which players the other managers will overpay for. Since most people get their information from the same pool of advice they are going to be easy to take advantage of. Razzball calls this “zigging when they are zagging.” Just try to stay away from the fat chicks. And scooters. The Jack Daniels is your call, we don’t judge here.

2. Don’t forget why you are playing

• The point is to have fun: unless the point is to win the money your sucker friends paid to play (that’s gambling and is illegal so nobody here is doing that anyways). First and foremost, you should enjoy playing the game, otherwise it’s like work except you aren’t getting paid. I don’t know about you but the only reason I go to work is the paycheck. If having fun means drafting a team composed solely of players with mustaches, knock yourself out. Also ask Grey for advice, I bet he has some pointers for you.

• Play to win the game: To cross my sports references, Herm Edwards said it best. Having fun is well and good but it’s a lot more fun when you can make fun of people. Playing to win makes the game that much sweeter. Even if your team happens to suck and you’re the one being made fun of, keep playing competitively. There is nothing worse in a league than the managers that gave up and aren’t setting rosters.

3. Intangibles

• Play with the heart: it goes back to playing for fun but you should make a few moves based on your gut and emotions. If you think a player is posed to have a breakout year but you can’t think of a single reason why, say screw it and draft him. Don’t use this approach to draft Pedro Martinez in the first round, but a lot of your team’s performance is going to be out of your hands. The one thing you can control is how you feel about the players on the team. I picked Dan Uggla up off the waiver wire early in his rookie season for the sole reason that I lived in Miami and wanted to have a player I could root for while watching Marlins games. He became something of a mascot (coincidentally, for significant stretches the Mariner Moose will give you better stats) and the fact that my team won the championship was even better because he was there.

• To win you need to play smart: the margin between winning and losing is often exceedingly small. Fantasy baseball is a game of cold hard numbers and there simply isn’t room on a winning team for feel-good stories. Most feel-good stories don’t end up like Josh Hamilton. After that first season with Uggla I made it a point to have him on my teams which entailed reaching a round or two for him. When we drafted the RCL I fought the urge and decided to draft him where he deserved to go – and didn’t end up with him. I won the league by half a point. That wouldn’t have happened if Uggla had been on the team.

4. Making Moves

• Active managers are champs: after the draft, the only reasonable place to get talent for free is to find a gem among the schmoes on the waiver wire. Last season Carlos Quentin was largely undrafted and Alexei Ramirez was unheard of. Knowing then what you know now, don’t you wish you had picked them up? Don’t be afraid to cut players loose if a better deal is out there. Generally, at least a third of the players on my teams at the end of any season weren’t on the opening day roster. Maybe I just suck at drafting. To do this properly you need to figure out who has historically underperformed and is now playing at their real level of talent; conversely, don’t pick up the players that historically were playing at their actual level of suckitude and are now enjoying a streak of good luck.

• Being an active manager is an easy way to get hosed: Even though it is said time and again, you have to remember that baseball is a game of averages. Dealing someone (or dropping them for a waiver wire pickup) during the middle of a cold spell can be a good way to end up stuck with the worst part of their season and miss out on their production. Don’t cut ties with a guy just because he hasn’t had a decent game in a few weeks. Instead, sit him on the bench and plug in someone else until he comes around. Similarly, don’t try to score a player because you think he’ll keep up his monster numbers; boys and girls, we call that overpaying. The start of Dan Uggla’s season last year was real nice – too bad he balanced it out with June through September. Hamilton also cooled off quite a bit. Chances are at the end of the year the managers that traded for those guys early were wishing they had the players they gave away in the deal.

Following this advice will in no way guarantee you a championship. If you’re in the Original Recipe division with me I strongly recommend you disregard this entire post. Everybody should find their own approach to the game and make it work for them. Most importantly, keep coming to Razzball.com to see what you should really do – just remember to make sure the author wasn’t p0rk burn.

Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

Player A – Last season, 95/17/71/.303/29
Player B – Last season, 112/22/66/.280/12

Player A is Johnny Damon, Player B is Curtis Granderson

Player A – In 362 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/4/39/.285/23
Player B – In 379 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/5/31/.253/21

Player A is Alex Rios, Player B is Carlos Gomez

Player A – In 248 at-bats Post-All Star, 36/9/39/.278/9
Player B – In 268 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/9/25/.299/13

Player A is Krispie Young, Player B is Matt Kemp.

Player A – In 218 at-bats Post-All Star, 42/9/36/.335/3
Player B – In 198 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/10/37/.288/3

Player A is Andre Ethier, Player B is Mark DeRosa

Player A – In 557 at-bats last year, 66/15/84/.293/7
Player B – In 575 at-bats last year, 80/10/69/.290/14

Player A is Garrett Anderson, Player B is Delmon Young

Player A – In 356 at-bats last year, 52/15/42/.250/1
Player B – In 340 at-bats last year, 53/20/55/.235/2

Player A is Justin Upton, Player B is Jim Edmonds.  This is not an endorsement of Jim Edmonds, but a warning on Upton.

Player A – In 502 at-bats last year, 74/17/61/.249/6
Player B – In 461 at-bats last year, 59/22/73/.260/6

Player A is Jeremy Hermida, Player B is Cody Ross

Player A – In 221 at-bats Post-All Star, 30/7/29/.299/11
Player B – In 231 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/4/20/.290/15

Player A is Lastings Milledge, Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury

Player A – In 247 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/11/35/.296/2
Player B – In 251 at-bats Post-All Star, 43/9/29/.311/14

Player A is Josh Hamilton, Player B is Shane Victorino… VICTORINO!