Fantasy Baseball Advice

This was a fantasy baseball league put together by the FSWA, Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  (Grey is in the FSWA and Rudy is unlicensed.  Hopefully they don’t kick out Grey for hiring non-union labor.) We drafted this league together, which made for some disagreements in our two styles of drafting.  That was quickly mended when we realized it was only a 12 team league and we could get a stacked team no matter how many top chefs were cooking in this quickfire challenge.

C:  Mike Napoli
C:  Brandon Inge
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Ryan Theriot
MI: Felipe Lopez
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Carlos Quentin
OF: Adam Dunn
OF: Cameron Maybin
OF: Ryan Spilborghs
UT: Fred Lewis
Bench: Colby Rasmus

P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Felix Hernandez
P: Scott Kazmir
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Erik Bedard
P: Troy Percival
P: Wandy Rodriguez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Fernando Rodney
Bench: Kenshin Kawakami, Joey Devine, Chad Cordero, David Aardsma
DL: Max Scherzer

OVERALL THOUGHTS:

First off, this league is 5×5 with SLG and OBP instead of HRs and Average.  We put up a bit of a fight to have that changed, but our protests fell on deaf ears.  With those two category changes, it makes our Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn selections even purdier.  Put them up to the light; they shine!  It doesn’t help the Inge selection that much, but a bit.

We selected eleventh overall and Miguel Cabrera almost made it to us in the first round after Manny Ramirez was taken 4th and Jimmy Rollins was taken 6th.  As confusing as Manny was in the 4 slot, it wasn’t as confusing as Rollins over Howard, Miggy, Braun, Utley and Sizemore.

Pitchers flew off the board in this league.  To give you an idea, Nolasco, Beckett, Billingsley and Lackey all went in the 6th round.  (This was after Lackey’s injury had surfaced.)  We decided to go with the upside of Kazmir and F-Her.  (Note:  We drafted Devine prior to the injury announcement.)

All told, we drafted 5 Mariners.  Sucky guys on sucky teams is the new black!  Luckily, Endy Chavez was not one of the drafted Mariners.  (When Don Wakamatsu named Brandon Morrow the closer, we dropped two of our Mariners.  Betcha you can guess which two.)

Our team is well-balanced with power and speed.  And we have Felipe Lopez, what’s not to love?  Our pitching is riskier than either of us would’ve preferred, but neither of us wanted to get caught up in a run with pitchers flying off the shelves that early.  In a 12 team league, we should be able to fix potential pitching holes with waiver wire pickups.

I’m in a bunch of leagues because I’m popular and smart. Feathered hair is coming back! It is? Yes, Grey said so! This fantasy baseball league is being hosted by RotoRob. (NOTE: It’s not RotorOB, RotOrOB or roTOROb.) After the pretty picture of my fantasy baseball team, I share with you never-before-seen thoughts I jotted down during the draft. This draft was held about two weeks ago, so two of my last three picks are already off my team. Anyway, here’s my fantasy baseball team:

ROUNDS 1/2 – I turn on my draft thingie to find I’m drafting 15th out of 15 teams. Sweet.  I prefer the corner. Gives me time to go on a Mad Dog 20/20 run between picks. Since I’m the corner, I’m going to combine my pick recaps. I take two predictable guys (Carlos Beltran and Prince Fielder) as two guys above me predictably grab Hamilton and Longoria.  Whatever, I wish my fellow drafters nothing but love, peace and Rickie Weeks.

ROUNDS 3/4 – Of course Pedroia and Manny go quickly.  There’s nowhere for them to go but up. /sarcasm  I’m hoping for Quentin to come back to me, but it’s a pipe dream with 15 teams choosing twice before I go again.  I dropped some hints about Rios in the chat to see if I could persuade people away from CQ.  Oh, well, Quentin was taken three picks before me.  I was surprised he lasted that long.  Went with Jake Peavy and Alexei Ramirez.  As everyone knows I love Peavy and at the 45th pick overall it’s hard to refuse when Lincecum and Santana were off the board at 20 and 21, respectively.  As for Alexei at 46th, he has 2nd base and SS eligibility in Y!  and I like him better than Pedroia who went almost 30 picks prior.  If you didn’t know, now you do.

ROUNDS 5/6 – Third basemen are flying off in this round leaving me looking at Huff.  Blech!  I’ve decided sometime after my third draft this year that I’m punting 3rd basemen.  I refuse to reach for Davis.  2009 is the Year of the 3rd Baseman Flier for me.  There wasn’t much appealing to me for these two picks.  I decided I could use something safe and something Bruce.  I went Dan Uggla and Jay Bruce.  My average is in the dumpster by this point, but I’m not going to worry about it right now.

ROUNDS 7/8 – I’m hoping at this point to solidify my outfield because of the Bruuuuce upside pick.  I’m looking at Raul Ibanez and I’m actually finding him appealing.  Weird!  I also like Broxton right here too, but, alas, someone else liked him right before me.  I end up with Raul Ibanez and Yovani Gallardo.  See, this is the thing about having the 15th pick, you know that you might have to reach a little bit for guys you want.  Gallardo wasn’t getting back to me and I’ve been taking Cain in every other league and that gets boring.

ROUNDS 9/10 – All right, I need a closer in one of these two picks.  Then again Ryan, Jenks, Marmol, Qualls, Bell and Devine are all on the board.  I might pass on relievers again.  There goes Ryan, Marmol, Jenks and Devine… Somebody’s been reading my mind — no fair!  I took Chad Qualls and Brad Hawpe.  As for Hawpe, in a league this shallow (no Corner or Middle Infidel), I figured I’d stock up on safe HRs/RBIs wherever possible.

ROUNDS 11/12 – I will be reaching for Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds with my next picks for a Utility and 3rd baseman because I need steals and my average is in the caboose already.  But I have a long wait… Off to the bodega for a bottle of cheap wine.  Okay, back and buzzed.  Wow, Reynolds and Gomez are both still there… But in front of the bodega, a homeless man said something to me that was pretty prophetic, “Everyone fears bad averages.  They’ll be around for your next two picks.  Oh, and could you spare a buck, I’m trying to finish up my Master’s in Sociology–” “Sorry, gotta run!”   I decided to try the homeless guy’s advice on for size and went with Heath Bell and Josh Johnson.

ROUNDS 13/14 – Homeless Post-Grad Student was right!  Why does everyone fear a poor average so much?  Ah, for another day, I suppose.  Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds, you are mine!

ROUNDS 15/16 – For some reason, no one drafts Chien-Ming Wang anymore.  Or maybe they never did.  Guys chosen before him – Saunders and Ben Sheets.   Double shot of blech.  Anyway, it worked for my team because I have K-heavy pitchers on teams that might not win a whole lot and because I can’t refuse closers this late… Huston Street.  Warm up the DL slot!

ROUNDS 17/18 – Ramon Hernandez has been at the top of my queue forever now and I’m getting sick of looking at him.  250-some-odd picks in, I’ll take a potential 20 HRs catcher and another closer, Brandon Lyon.  (NOTE:  He was still the closer at this point.  But so was Corpas, so one out two ain’t bad.)

ROUNDS 19/20 – Fred Lewis.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!  Then I was looking at Aaron Cook and Pettitte, but decided to go with the upside of Anthony Reyes.  A few picks I liked this round, Josh Fields, Jed Lowrie, Kendry Morales and Colby Rasmus.  Great upside picks.

ROUNDS 23 – (Omitted Rounds 21/22. As said earlier, Mark Lowe and Todd Coffey are no longer on the team. So sad.)  With my last pick, I took Kelvim Escobar.  Not even really sure how he lasted this long.  Sure, he’s injury-prone, but he’s that much worse than Wandy Rodriguez? Crickets. Hmm… Maybe he is, but at the 345th pick I’ll take this schmohawk every day of the week and twice on Muesday.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Roto Arcade invited Razzball into their 16-team mixed league that they are christening a ‘Pro-Am’ since 9 of the players are fantasy bloggers and 7 are avid players from Fantasy Baseball Cafe boards and Y! Roto Arcade commenters.

Andy posted all the rosters as well as some Q&A over in this post.  It’s a good read.  Some post-draft thoughts:

• 16-team drafts take FOREVER if you’re picking on one of the ends.  We were 14th.  Luckily, Grey and I tag-teamed it and kept ourselves entertained with a running commentary on the picks.
• You either have to be a little more flexible in 16 team leagues or be willing to accept bad value.  We ended up following our BRAN Strategy but had to improvise when Peavy and Webb failed to reach us with the 46th pick (3rd round).  We ended up mirroring my FantasyPros911 NL-only draft from a week ago and going Catcher crazy.  McCann was at the top of both our catcher lists and we liked him better than settling for Haren.  We ended up snagging Pablo Sandoval (C-eligible in Y! leagues) in the 8th round as we were incredulous that he was still available (guys like Napoli were coming off the board by the 10th round).
• These guys were middle infielder crazy:  Furcal in the 4th.  Figgins, Tulo, and Uggla in the 5th.  Cano, Jeter, and Michael Young in the 6th.  You get the idea.  Never thought twice about waiting it out.  Like Kelly Johnson in the 9th round (122nd pick).  Freddy Sanchez (19th round) and Elvis Andrus (20th round) should chip in for AVG and SB respectively.
• Outfield dries up quick in a league this big.  You know it’s bad when you’re forced to draft Frenchy in the 17th round.  But Beltran/McLouth/Maybin/Lewis are a solid first four and felt Rasmus in round 22 (something like pick #340) is a nice upside play.
• Not loving our pitching staff.  I like our Shields/Cain/Cueto troika less than my 12-team NL of Volquez/Cain/Scherzer.  I hope Carmona doesn’t make me look bad for championing him in the 16th round.  At least our relief situation is solid with Lidge, Francisco, and Devine (edit: doh!).

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the fantasy baseball closers.  Here at Razzball we are always evolving like Saaphyri’s alliance on I Love Money 2, so I’ve added pluses and minuses in parenthesis for the movement a closer has had since the last time I went over them.  For example, if B.J. Ryan fell twelve spots from 10 to 25, he has a parenthetical negative fifteen next to his name.  If there was no change, no parenthetical.  I also removed the team they close for, because if you don’t know that, I’m not sure how much I can help you.  More than anything else, the closer list is constantly changing.  So you kinda need to follow along to my daily roundups, but if you like to have things all in one place, here ya go.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

We’re in the final days of fantasy baseball draft season and I’m taking a breather this weekend to survey my squads. This season’s drafts have been a lot more fun than last year’s as I’ve left the comfortable womb of undergrad 10-12 MLB drafts to graduate school formats like 12-team single league and 16-team mixed leagues. Going that deep in drafts makes you contemplate such unsavory questions as “Should I draft a Nationals pitcher?” and “Who will be Larussa’s go-to utility guy?”

I’ll cover the FantasyPros911 12-Team NL Blogger League in this post and cover the Yahoo! Roto Arcade 16-team mixed league in a separate one.

For those unfamiliar with FantasyPros911, they are running two expert leagues but relegated us to the ‘2nd division’ as revenge for being good friends with Chuck D who has been (unfairly) critical of their site.  Anyway, we were delighted to have the opportunity to test our fantasy baseballin’ skillz  with the other fine fantasy bloggers in this league.  (Complete draft results here)

It was the traditional auction style draft where you have $260 for your roster and 7 reserve picks (we’re still trying to finish up the last 2 rounds).  While I think my player values were right on (especially after comparing against the NL LABR Draft), I had a few missteps on draft strategy and execution.  I went in with a strategy of getting players at or below my estimated value and avoid big buck players in favor of a balanced squad.  My fellow bloggers helped me avoid any temptations to draft a top player by overbidding just about every top player.  Hanley went for a ridunkulous $54 (my valuation $39).  Albert Pujols for $49 (my valuation $36).  David Wright went for $48 (my valuation $41).  Jose Reyes for $45 (my valuation $38).  You get the idea.  This left me on the sidelines in the beginning except when it came to drafting catchers.  I don’t particularly like investing $ or high draft choices on catchers because they get more time off, have greater injury risk, and tend to slow down in the 2nd half.  But you have to mix things up a bit when 24 catchers are slotted to be drafted and I only had 13 at 300+ ABs.  After I got outbid for Brian McCann ($27), I snagged Russ Martin and Geovanny Soto for a combined $40 (I valued them at a combined $60).

After the first wave of great players, the bidding got more tentative and I started spending my dollars pretty quickly.  My biggest mistake was failing to realize you can’t move players down to your Reserve.  I survived clogging my 1B slot with a $3 Nick Johnson by snagging Cantu for my 1B/3B slot.  I lucked out after stupidly clogging my SS spot with Aaron Miles (I started and ended the bidding at $1) by snagging Alex Gonzalez in the reserve draft.  My early giddiness at getting Maybin for $13 might have led to risky OF bids on Colby Rasmus ($8) and Andrew McCutchen ($3).  Of course these guys could earn their value (they got drafted at the same $ in NL LABR) but I exposed myself to too much risk and could’ve used a safer, higher AVG guy to balance off Uggla and Reynolds.  I minimized some of that risk by snagging Seth Smith in COL with the first reserve pick but if these guys end up spending the 1st half either in the minors or on the bench, I’m in trouble.

As for pitching, I’m very happy with my starting staff.  I would’ve loved to anchor the staff with a Santana, Peavy, or Webb but I got two potential aces in Volquez and Cain for the price of one of those guys.  I’ll be lucky to get 150 IP out of Scherzer ($11) but I like him better than Cueto and Parra (both who went for $9).  I overpaid for Maine as it was later in the draft but had the money at the time.  Liking my depth at SP with Randy Wolf, Phillie prospect J.A. Happ and a Petco Park pitcher in Baek.  Not psyched about my relief crew of Francisco Cordero, Huston Street, and the two ugly options in STL (Franklin, McClellan) but hopefully I can get a couple points out of them.

I’ll write a couple posts throughout the year with updates from this league.  If I win, I get to move up to the ‘pert division in 2010.  I’m all a-tingle!