Carlos Santana, 2010 Fantasy Outlook
November 19, 2009
Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rookies
Carlos Santana is getting a 2010 fantasy baseball rookie post because I know people will ask about him. See, I’m psychic. BTW, I wouldn’t bring in the mail today. Just a bunch of bills and a 20% off coupon for Bed, Bath and Beyond. Carlos Santana is the catcher prospect the Dodgers traded to the Indians for Casey Blake. TMZ reported Jamie McCourt did the aforementioned trade because Carlos Santana looks eerily similar to Edward James Olmos, who was Frank McCourt’s reason for watching “every single, goddamn Miami Vice rerun.” Only later did Mrs. McCourt find out that that was the wrong Carlos Santana. At 23, Carlos Santana just finished up his best season in the minor leagues slashing .290/.413/.530 at Double-A. Showing solid plate discipline, he walked more times than he struckout. He knocked in 97 RBIs and hit 23 homers in 130 games and was named the 2009 Eastern League Most Valuable Player Award after winning the 2008 California League MVP. (Scouting the Unknown went over Carlos Santana’s minor league numbers in further detail.) So can Carlos Santana help you in 2010 fantasy baseball?
There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana. His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs. I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest. If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper. But really that’s only true because of his position. If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues. Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats. Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible. (Sidenote: As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold. Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived. He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats. Now that seems implausible.) If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones. In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up. If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year. Game, set, natch.
Tags: Carlos Santana, fantasy baseball
November 19th, 2009 at 12:51 am
Loving the liberal use of ’slash’.
That’s all I got.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:38 am
OH CLEVELAND, always rebuilding, who’s going next? When’s Gradys contract up? Why did i have to be born in OHIO and root for all these god awful teams? oh well, go tribe, lets hope C-Santana is as studly as i’ve heard….
@Steve: Thanks!
@Tony: You also got Chisenhall and Carrasco. Keep your chin up.
November 19th, 2009 at 9:26 am
@Grey: wow slow day…..
@Tony: The enthusiasm for Cleveland prospects is at a fever pitch.
November 19th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Had a chance to watch Santana play for Akron in New Britain, CT. He’s shorter and bulkier than advertised (5′10/200+). His game management, staff management, and overall defense is really weak. Good thing that doesn’t count in 5×5.
A switch-hitting catcher with good power and plate discipline is as rare as a Cambodian Forest Ox. He’s worth monitoring, but I think he’ll end up as a C/1B/DH type. The good news is that Cleveland doesn’t have an incumbent guy at any of those positions that can’t be bumped.
Best result: think Kung-Fu Panda.
November 19th, 2009 at 9:52 am
lou marson can actually catch the ball
and calls a decent game .
maybe 2011 for santana .
November 19th, 2009 at 10:14 am
bill james’ projections should be published
in comic book form .
@sean: Yeah, agreed. He’s all bat. But an “all bat” at catcher is definitely worth monitoring, as you said.
@big o: Don’t think we have to wait that long for him. re: James — ha!
November 19th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Did a mock draft last night. What do you think?
C-Wieters
1B-Gonzalez
2B-Zobrist or Stewart
3B-Sandoval
SS-Hanley
OF-Granderson, Bruce, Dye, Reimold (Zobrist)
Util-Reyes
SP-Lester, Peavy, Jimenez, Danks, Sancez, Liriano
RP-Wilson, Capps, Qualls
Reyes was my 2nd pick, got him at 23rd overall. Peavy I got at the end of the 8th round.
What do you think?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Speaking of Bill James–he’s got Reimold on par with Ethier, except for SB–which he has Reimold getting low double digits (better than Ethier)!
Is that even remotely realistic?
@Russ: 12 teams then, huh? Very solid team for that deep. You’re like Mini Me with your choices on pitchers. Very solid on Ks and question marks elsewhere… I like to go that way, as well. Would’ve liked to see one more solid outfielder. Dye and Reimold aren’t terrible, but coupled with Bruce they’re a bit risky. Dye, in particular, I’m not a huge fan of. Overall real solid though.
@Russ: Possible, not realistic.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:53 am
“@Russ: 12 teams then, huh? Very solid team for that deep. You’re like Mini Me with your choices on pitchers. Very solid on Ks and question marks elsewhere… I like to go that way, as well. Would’ve liked to see one more solid outfielder. Dye and Reimold aren’t terrible, but coupled with Bruce they’re a bit risky. Dye, in particular, I’m not a huge fan of. Overall real solid though.”
–SP and OF I don’t go crazy about–’cause there’s always guys who come out of nowhere. And I hate reaching for closers. Peavy I like at his draft slot ’cause Gallardo and Kershaw went 2 and 5 picks after him. I think they’re a reach in round 8. But peavy could be a steal in round 8. Papelbon, Broxton, Nathan, Rivera and KRod all went by round 8. insanity!
speaking of…Choo went in the 5th round. that’s crazy. the next OF’s drafted after him: carlos lee, bourn, b.j upton, ethier, manny, victorino, granderson, soriano, abreu, cruz, adam jones, mclouth, pence…just to name a few. that has to be the worst pick of the draft, no? (i know you don’t see the draft, but could you think of a worse pick?)
@Russ: I agree with everything you said re: SPs and OFs. Dye’s a pain in the ass because he’s a big enough name where you wouldn’t want to drop him, but you’re also not going to want to own him. It’s just a mock though.
re: Choo — There’s 11 to 12 guys out of 13 I’d want from that list before Choo.
EDIT: Word.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:02 am
@Russ: I agree with everything you said re: SPs and OFs. Dye’s a pain in the ass because he’s a big enough name where you wouldn’t want to drop him, but you’re also not going to want to own him. It’s just a mock though.
–even if it was a real draft, I wouldn’t hesitate to drop Dye or any my OFs if they had a bad 1st month (or try to trade them for a so-so RP who may become a closer). so many are a dime a dozen, and even the guarantees don’t work out (think of the laundry list of “elite” OFs drafted in ‘09 who were injured or underperformed).
November 19th, 2009 at 11:09 am
mock drafts already? good lord.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:12 am
lincecum cy young
@matthole: Thanks for the heads up! That makes sense. Wonder if he’ll do the news conference while eating a bag of Doritos.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:18 am
@Grey:
p.s.
buddy miles MADE carlos santana .
@big o: And the California Raisins.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:24 am
@Grey: HA! i respect that hes a functional stoner
November 19th, 2009 at 11:53 am
After a couple months to mourn, I’m ready to exhume my 2009 fantasy rosters and attempt to identify my mistakes and think about draft day strategy for 2010.
I don’t have to go any further than my first 10 picks to see what went wrong:
(3) David Wright, 3B — useless
(18) Prince Fielder, 1B
(23) Carlos Quentin, OF — useless
(38) Alex Rios, OF — useless
(43) Brandon Phillips, 2B
(58) Shane Victorino, OF — weak
(63) Joey Votto, CI — low ABs
(78) Chad Billingsley, SP
(83) Stephen Drew, SS — useless
(98) James Shields, SP — weak
November 19th, 2009 at 11:56 am
My middle 10 picks were slightly better. I have to add the caveat that I dropped Reynolds in the first month of the season, and that I traded Ibanez for Kemp in June.
(103) Raul Ibanez, OF — lucky stab
(118) Adam Wainwright, SP — solid
(123) Francisco Cordero, RP — solid
(138) BJ Ryan, RP — useless
(143) Lastings Milledge, OF — useless
(158) Ervin Santana, SP — speculative garbage
(163) Josh Johnson, SP — solid
(178) Brandon Morrow, RP — shockingly terrible
(183) Mark Reynolds, U — looks like I’m the donkey here
(198) Brandon Lyon, RP
November 19th, 2009 at 11:56 am
@Russ: choo in the 5th is ridiculous, and over the other OF’ers you named, just dumb….
musta been a cleveland homer, hahah…
November 19th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Last 1/3 of the roster looked like, well, the last 1/3 of a roster
(203) Kelly Shoppach, C
(218) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
(223) Felipe Lopez, MI
(238) Leo Nunez, BN
(243) Aaron Cook, BN
(258) Carlos Villanueva, BN
(263) Jeremy Guthrie, BN
(278) Jose Arredondo, BN
(283) Colby Rasmus, BN
I was able to get Zobrist, Wolf, and Stewart off of waivers early. Thankfully, at least I could put a team together because of that. I was consistently carried through the middle of the pack because I had 3-4 guys hot in most months, but ultimately I finished a distant 4th in a 10-team CBS league.
@sean: Yeah, the top of your draft really killed you. It’s hard to make up that ground when guys that should come around just don’t.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Wright was drafted in the middle of the 2nd round in the mock I participated in last night. Even if he only hits 20 homers, that’s a nice value pick, cause the rest of his numbers should still be better than every other 3B besides Arod and Longoria. I’d definitely target him in an auction draft, especially if you can name him a keeper.
From what I gather, Johan isn’t going for much of a discount (he was the 4th pitcher drafted in the same mock, and it was only the 2nd round). Metco must be keeping people high on him.
@Russ: re: Wright — I’ll need to do a post on him, but I’m not high on him. re: Johan — I found the opposite in my two ‘pert drafts. I actually drafted him in the 5th round in one.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
I wonder if the dead writer version of Frank McCourt often/ever confused Carlos Santana with Tito Puente?
Larry King says, “I saw both Carlos Santana and Tito Puente perform, ‘Oye Como Va?’ and I can tell you they were both right…”
This is what I got out of the rest of this piece:
“Blah blah blah punt catcher blah blah blah”
@Shmorgie S. Board: Larry King’s a connoisseur on so many things, I believe it.
November 19th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
q1
1
Nightmare Fuel
2
freak
q2
3
oldrungo
q1
4
chata
q1
5
brett.
6
REV12
7
GopherDay
q1
8
KyleJames101
9
Simply Fred
10
Dexter
11
caveman clubbers
12
SteveL
this are the drafters in the 2nd annual razzball slow mock draft .
the draft starts @10 pm on the 22nd .
November 19th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
I hope the draft doesn’t take as long as it took to scroll through that comment
November 19th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
*this = these
sorry about the cut-and – paste job .
prior to the start of the mock ,
draft order will be determined .
@big o: Cool, make sure to keep me updated.
November 19th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Question: Will it be frowned upon if i’m not at my computer on Sunday night? I’ll do my best to queue up two rounds worth of players, but nobody’s expecting to fire through the first five rounds or anything like that, right?
November 19th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
@brett: Nah. Just queue up what you can. It’s pretty relaxed. We’ll just talk s*** with each another until your pick rolls round again
November 19th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
@Grey: Miggy or A-rod?
@GopherDay: A-rod, but it’s very close.
November 19th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
@Russ: re: Wright — I’ll need to do a post on him, but I’m not high on him. re: Johan — I found the opposite in my two ‘pert drafts. I actually drafted him in the 5th round in one.
–I’m not high on Wright either. My main league, which is an auction draft where every team names four keepers (for the following three seasons) keeping him at 2/3 or even 1/2 of his historical price would be hard to turn down. In a snake draft, I wouldn’t draft him in the 2nd round–so I agree with you there.
–As far as the ‘perts–that doesn’t surprise me too much, ’cause I think most of ya’ll are afraid of his falling strikeout rate. I think johan still holds a strong allure with the casual drafter.
@Russ: re: Johan — Maybe, but it’s also coupled with most experts refuse to draft pitchers.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
@Grey: I will generally stay away from Johan, just because his name value requires a high price. If I can get him later on I’ll pounce on it immediately!
November 19th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@GopherDay: Thats what I figured, but it sure is a close call.
@GopherDay: A-Rod’s steals are what pushes him over the top.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
@Grey: And 1B is much deeper than 3B this season.
@GopherDay: Yes, also very true.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
@Grey: So if it’s “very close” are you saying Miggy’s a relatively early first round pick, or is A-Rod falling in your books?
@brett: I’m saying I like Miggy but A-Rod’s slightly above him if I were drafting right now.
November 19th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Fair enough. I’m having a hard time placing Cabrera that high without his 3B eligibility but i guess to his credit he’s about as consistent as they come.
November 19th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
@Grey:
i’m sensing more anxious-ness this year , compared to last .
maybe it’s just that more of these “types” are being attracted
to your site .
obviously , i’m not the only one that finds the wait excruciating .
how do you read the current “state of the union” ?
are you expert-types rarin’ to go ??
will this be a shortened holiday-movie season ???
seems a shame (?) , as thanksgiving day is the grand opening of
the lastest ninja/killer blood-fest .
tra-la-la-la-la .
@big o: I don’t sense any anxiousness, not sure what you mean.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
@Grey:
rank these 3 , please .
howard , teixeira , cabrera .
is there anything , short of an off-season injury ,
that would prompt you to change your ranking ?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
@big o: No love for Prince?
@big o: Howard, Miggy then Tex. There’s things that could change that besides injury.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
@brett:
i also didn’t ask him to rank pujols .
January 16th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
What do you think about Freese at 3rd base?