DRAFT STRATEGY
Anyway, here are the objectives of the BRAN strategy:?1) Get as much value as possible out of our first 9 picks which means keeping flexibility to take advantage of bargains.
2) Remain balanced enough w/ your roster to take advantage of bargains at any position in rounds 10-25 – i.e., if you stack up on OFs in the 1st 9 rounds, you have to ignore OF bargains in favor of backfilling other positions (like pitcher).
Here is the plan:?In the first 9 rounds, fill 6 set positions (1B, 2 OF, 2 SP, RP) and 3 ‘flex’ picks that can be used on the best values across any position. See below for the position breakdown – note that OF (2/3) means draft at least 2 OFs and no more than 3 OFs. Also, any round projections for players is based on 10-team leagues.
C (0/1) – I hate picking a catcher in the first 9 rounds because 1) the stat difference between a top 3 catcher and the last drafted catcher are the smallest of any position, 2) no one is going to take an additional catcher so I know I’ll get at least the last catcher on my draft list and 3) catchers seem more likely to get injured. If you’re going to take one, aim to take someone going at least a round later than they should go.
1B (1/2) -As my blogmate Grey points out in his Top 20 1st Basemen post, there is a top tier of about 8-10 1Bs (depending on how you feel about Youk and Votto, though Youk will get snagged earlier for 3B). The first 8 of these guys are going to get snagged in the first 4 rounds (Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Teixeira, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, A-Gonz). High-ceiling guys like Votto and Chris Davis will get picked one or more rounds early because owners w/o 1Bs will panic. Solid vets like D-Lee and Delgado can get snagged any time as a team’s cornerman. My advice is if there is a 1B at a good value in the first 4 rounds, grab him. If a top-tier 1B is still hanging around in rounds 6-9, grab him for cornerman.
2B (0/1) – The same deal applies for 2B and SS so I’ll just write it once. Middle infielders picked in the first 9 rounds almost always turn out below the expected value at that draft position. Last year, Ian Kinsler was the only one out of 10 MIs drafted in Rounds 3-8 that provided above-average value (and, yes, that factors in position scarcity). I called this before last season in a middling infielder post. I’d look to use one of your 3 Flex Picks on either a 2B or SS and then grab the other and a MI in rounds 10-25. After catcher, I’d say these are the best positions to punt.
SS (0/1) – See 2B.
3B (0/1) -This is a strange year for 3B. A-Rod and Wright rule the category now that two of the top four no longer qualify (Cabrera, Braun). No argument w/ them as your 1st round pick. I don’t think there’s value to be found until Round 4 (Aramis Ramirez). Atkins could be a steal at Round 5/6. I’d avoid jumping at Chris Davis and Youk unless the value is there based on Marcel or CHONE projections – e.g., don’t believe Bill James’s projections on Chris Davis and assume Youkilis regresses after a career year.
OF (2/3) – Since the BRAN strategy is all about balance, I suggest breaking the draft into 5 segments and aim to get one per segment. Think 1 OF in Rounds 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21+. If you can get two high-value OFs in a five round segment, go for it. There is no reason to have more than 3 OFs in the 1st 9 rounds though.
SP (2/3) – Similar to OFs. There are some that love to punt SPs until Round 10 or so. Seems unnecessary to me. Grab 1 SP in first five rounds; then one more BEFORE rd 9. Realize there will be a round or two between the 3rd and the 6th where a number of SPs are picked – get ahead of that wave to get the most value.
RP (1/2) – My ideal closer pick is something like the 3rd-5th closer off the board as detailed in this closer post from last year. Aim for a closer in Round 5-7 that can be your foundation (and help with ERA/WHIP/Ks). If a top tier closer makes it to Rounds 7-9 and you still have Flex picks, go for it and then you can focus on stocking up on OF and SP in rounds 10-12.
DH (0/1) – In a league with just one UTIL slot, a DH really hurts roster flexibility. Determine what fair value is for a DH and then wait an extra 2 rounds before drafting.

No more Getz. Assuming Q is healthy (big assumption) he will be in the line-up everyday. There’s no chance he gets spelled to let Teahan play the outfield, and he will only get spelled for Jones if Q moves to DH.

Q’s upside is vastly superior to the other guys you lists, especially since he did it just two years ago, in an admittedly injury shortened season. He might have hit 40 that year, you’re not getting anywhere near that production from Ross, Swish, Drew etc.

His speed is also underrated. He doesn’t steal many bases but he’s an excellent base runner which helps his run total.

I don’t think round 4-5 is where you want to take chances on upside…not unless it’s a super-star coming back from injury (e.g. Utley, A-Rod in 2009) or a guy like BJ Upton, who will give you the 10-40 with the potential for 14-45 and a better AVG. Even if Quentin hits Grey’s projection (80/28/95/.275/5) that’s not 5th round value in my book.

My analysis:

CQ is the right age (27), but has a long track record of injuries. Although he has great K% numbers, especially for a slugger, and the K% has been improving since 2007, he is a career .258 BABIP player because he hits very few line drives and puts the ball in the air a lot. He is a career .254 hitter and the various projection systems have him hitting between .258 and .273 – let’s give him .265

Runs/RBI are based on the team around the hitter and playing time. Right now the CWS have Quentin/Alex Rios/Juan Pierre in the OF plus Andruw Jones. Then there’s Teahen, who plays 3B and OF, but CWS already has Beckham/Getz/Alexei in the infield. I worry that CQ won’t get the playing time he needs to get 90 runs, 100 RBI, which is what I want from an OF drafted that high.

CQ has the power and the FB% to hit 30+ HR, but .265, no speed and 165 (runs + RBI) doesn’t sound that much better than Swisher, Ross, Willingham, Scott, Drew, etc. – who you can draft for nothing.

I always feel like I’m terrible at drafting starters, but I stay active enough on the waiver wire to grab SAGNOF guys and play the matchups(with your help of course).

By the way, happy belated birthday! Hope you had a good one.

@Nick0rz: That’s a solid outfield, now I wonder about who you were mocking against. They’re not too similar, they’re just at the same position.

Are Tulo and Hanley’s skill sets too similar?

I understand that CQ is more power/Upton more speed…..im just thinking that upton had a bum shoulder last yr and it could be healed by now…….but all of these potential injury proned steals could be a headache…..players like reyes, CQ, upton, sizemore, beltran could be had at a later round than usual for them…..but how many of these guys would you be willing to own/gamble on?

Also, which rd would draft carlos lee? hes another guy who was being drafted in the 2nd rd last yr but has slipped in mocks….

Thanks

I took Tulo 22nd, even though I already had Hanley. And I also took Morneau 39th, even though I took A-Gon 19th. Because of that, I got stuck with Ian Stewart at 2B, but I had to reach for him, and Headley at 3B. Do you think it’s worth doubling up at positions to fill MI/CI spots first? Or should I of gone for some stronger players at 2B/3B.

=

Bad lineup. Finally going to force my hand and avoid homerism this year. Plus pf never really heals unless that tendon is surgically severed and re-attached.

@Nick0rz: That’s a great spot.