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I know, it’s probably hard for a lot of you to love again.  Whether it’s divorce or your number one outfielder was out for 60 games with plantar fasciitis, it’s equally disappointing.  Hopefully, you didn’t draft Carlos Quentin last year and get divorced.  No one can go through that sort of heartbreak.  Not even Samuel L. Jackson.  And he can handle a lot.  Well, put aside your bucket of tears because it’s time you learned to love again without the help of a Nancy Meyers movie.  Carlos Quentin’s plantar fasciitis may not fully heal (pun point).  It’s a nasty little thing, but players can be productive — heal or no heel (what, too much?).  So what can Carlos Quentin provide for 2010 fantasy baseball and is he a fantasy sleeper?

Depends what your definition of a sleeper is, really.  Some will say, Quentin’s getting drafted everywhere, so how is he a sleeper?  That is kinda true, but my definition needs to be malleable for people in 10 team leagues.  I bought Quentin for $5 in a ‘pert mock auction draft recently and I’ve seen him being drafted around 100th in snakes.  For that value, he’s a sleeper.  I.e., he should return more value compared to where he’s being drafted.  In 2009, Quentin hit 21 homers in only 351 ABs and his HR/FB was a bit low for him.  Is he a slam dunk for 30 homers?  If he’s healthy, he is.  I’d say 35 homers is a reach, but doable.  Also, last year Quentin was profoundly unlucky to have a .236 average.  He’s not a batting title winner in the making, but he is a .275 hitter.  He has some sneaky speed too.  Though his plantar fasciitis may limit that.  But stealing a base a month wouldn’t be a tall order.  So 80/28/95/.275/5 with a chance for more.   That’s nothing to sneeze at unless you’re allergic to productive fantasy outfielders.

From Around The Web

  1. Clyde Prompto says:
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    Whose health issues scare you more, Quentin or Josh Hamilton? Quentin has a specific ailment, but Hamilton seems more prone to random pulls/breaks.

  2. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey what round in a 12 team h2h league would you consider drafting him?

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Clyde Prompto: Both are prone to injuries. Hamilton scares me more, but only by a small margin.

  4. Steve says:
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    As we already know, OF power is not that easy to come by – and CQ has it. Between about 50th to 60th overall right for 12 team roto?

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Sweet, thanks for the heads up!

    @Steve: Yup

  6. Antrim Warriors says:
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    RE; Beckham…sounds like he’s definitely starting at 2B…gotta up his value…

  7. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Dave: per “there was an article on THT explaining the Bill James system. The just of it was that it doesn’t account for injuries and basically assumes the best possible amount of playing time for every player.”

    Haven’t read the article, but something seems to be amiss. Just a brief look shows James’ projections for C. Davis at 128 games, Votto at 137.

    ??

  8. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: ” Both are prone to injuries. Hamilton scares me more, but only by a small margin.”

    I just don’t get it. These guys targeted for R4-5. This a statement I would expect deeper in the draft, looking for upside, assuming risk.

    R4-5 the appropriate spot to begin taking such risk?

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Antrim Warriors: He’s a solid upside pick for 2nd base, for sure.

    @Simply Fred: The reward outweighs the risk. If you don’t like what 2nd tier outfielders bring to the table, you should know that going in and grab a 1st tier OF and be looking at a different position when the 2nd tier OFs are being drafted.

  10. matthole says:
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    @Grey: @Simply Fred: late 4th/early 5th is where carlos quentin was taken last year….thats where youd take him this year even tho stated in the intro pple are taking him 100 in snake drafts? doesnt make sense for a sleeper there….maybe hamilton?

  11. Steve says:
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    May be old news, but saves just got a face in Pittsburgh. Dotel named closer.

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Late fourth, early 5th is around the 60th pick. That’s where I see his value. If you know you can get him in the 10th round, then by all means.

    @Steve: Thanks for the heads up!

  13. brett says:
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    @Simply Fred: Re: Risk – I’m with you completely for the leagues most people play in. I like to think i’m a good enough fantasy manager that if i minimize risk and take nothing but sure things (and a few young, not injury related upside picks) until the 8th or 9th round, I’ll be able to put up a 1st class team almost every time, especially with good in season managing. So i prefer to avoid Carlos Quentin types like the plague (unless they drop undeniably below slot).

    I can see it being a different case though in ‘pert leagues (and maybe Razzball commenter leagues). Most people are good enough managers that sometimes you have to take a chance to put your team over the top. Just a theory though… I still probably wouldn’t take some of these gambles.

  14. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @brett: Thanks. I can see Hamilton based on Grey’s statement that if he gets off to a good start, he will bring almost anything in return. Quentin if he drops far enough. I have been targeting Bruce about where Quentin might go so am interested in how Grey evaluates the two.

  15. black love says:
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    whats up with this miguel cabrera alcohol rehab stint.
    do you think its going to effect him or his draft position this year?
    maybe he’ll fall off the wagon mid-thru the season or something?
    or just break down from stress?

  16. Nick0rz says:
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    I’m in the midst of a mock right now, and I was able to snag Quentin at the end of the 10th round (10 teamer). Good spot to get him, right? I was actually really surprised to see him still there and I had thought he had been taken off the board already.

  17. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Nick0rz: Where did Bruce go?

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @black love: His name is an anagram for Beer Mug, ur a alci. I think he should be fine.

    @Nick0rz: That’s a great spot.

  19. Nick0rz says:
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    @Grey: Just read the second paragraph of your post (only read the first before I posted), didn’t notice you said that Carlos was consistently going around that spot. Oops.

  20. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Is that about right for Bruce? And, would you take Quentin before Bruce?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Simply Fred: Quentin’s a #2, Bruce is a #3 and that’s about right.

  22. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Thanks. Will re-adjust my thinking. (Not sure Tony will stand for it, though. :-) )

  23. Eddy says:
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    Grey will you expand on top 40 OF tomorrow or head over to SP?

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Tomorrow’s the top 40.

  25. cws05nuts says:
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    pierre
    beckham
    carlos
    some permutation of konerko/jones/rios
    teahan
    aj
    missile

    =

    Bad lineup. Finally going to force my hand and avoid homerism this year. Plus pf never really heals unless that tendon is surgically severed and re-attached.

  26. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    round 10 and 12 for CQ and bruce,i like the sound of that

  27. Nick0rz says:
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    Hey Grey, reviewing my mock from earlier today, couple quick questions…

    I took Tulo 22nd, even though I already had Hanley. And I also took Morneau 39th, even though I took A-Gon 19th. Because of that, I got stuck with Ian Stewart at 2B, but I had to reach for him, and Headley at 3B. Do you think it’s worth doubling up at positions to fill MI/CI spots first? Or should I of gone for some stronger players at 2B/3B.

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nick0rz: Don’t like putting Tulo and Hanley and A-Gonz and Morneau together. I imagine your outfield is pretty weak or I’m not sure how great your competition was in the mock.

  29. matthole says:
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    @Grey: which round would you draft bj upton? Who do you deem as a “safer” pick, him or CQ in terms of injuries…

    I understand that CQ is more power/Upton more speed…..im just thinking that upton had a bum shoulder last yr and it could be healed by now…….but all of these potential injury proned steals could be a headache…..players like reyes, CQ, upton, sizemore, beltran could be had at a later round than usual for them…..but how many of these guys would you be willing to own/gamble on?

    Also, which rd would draft carlos lee? hes another guy who was being drafted in the 2nd rd last yr but has slipped in mocks….

    Thanks

  30. Nick0rz says:
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    @Grey: Lind, Quentin, BJ Upton, Pence, Rasmus.

    Are Tulo and Hanley’s skill sets too similar?

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Upton’s before Quentin, but they’re close. I’d gamble on any of those guys, except Beltran; I have questions about him. Lee’s around the 8th round.

    @Nick0rz: That’s a solid outfield, now I wonder about who you were mocking against. They’re not too similar, they’re just at the same position.

  32. Nick0rz says:
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    @Grey: 2 guys only took guys over the age of 30 it seems, and another guy only took guys under the age of 28. One or two others were away at any given time it seemed.

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nick0rz: Weird… Not sure what to make of it, but your team seems a little too stacked. 12 team right? What’s your pitching like?

  34. Nick0rz says:
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    @Grey: Just a 10 teamer.
    I have Peavy, Cain, Nolasco, Bills, Jar Jar, Jorge de la Rosa, Mike Gonzalez, Frank Francisco, Nunez.

    I always feel like I’m terrible at drafting starters, but I stay active enough on the waiver wire to grab SAGNOF guys and play the matchups(with your help of course).

    By the way, happy belated birthday! Hope you had a good one.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nick0rz: Thanks! 10 teams makes a difference. Sorry, I assumed 12 teams. That staff isn’t terrible. Overall, a solid team.

  36. DrEasy says:
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    @Grey: “His name is an anagram for Beer Mug, ur a alci. I think he should be fine.” Well done, sir!

  37. brett says:
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    Ha! Just got that.
    Incidentally, it’s also an anagram for “Im a lager curber”. He’s working on it.

  38. Neil says:
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    @Simply Fred: I agree with Fred. There’s a lot of “HR specialists” late in the draft (Swisher, Ross, Willingham, Scott, Drew) who will cost nothing and give you 25 HR and a better AVG than Quentin. The rarest player is one who can contribute in all five categories…I like most of the guys in Grey’s 20-40 OF class a lot better than Quentin, especially the power-speed guys like Rios, McClouth, Choo.

    I don’t think round 4-5 is where you want to take chances on upside…not unless it’s a super-star coming back from injury (e.g. Utley, A-Rod in 2009) or a guy like BJ Upton, who will give you the 10-40 with the potential for 14-45 and a better AVG. Even if Quentin hits Grey’s projection (80/28/95/.275/5) that’s not 5th round value in my book.

    My analysis:

    CQ is the right age (27), but has a long track record of injuries. Although he has great K% numbers, especially for a slugger, and the K% has been improving since 2007, he is a career .258 BABIP player because he hits very few line drives and puts the ball in the air a lot. He is a career .254 hitter and the various projection systems have him hitting between .258 and .273 – let’s give him .265

    Runs/RBI are based on the team around the hitter and playing time. Right now the CWS have Quentin/Alex Rios/Juan Pierre in the OF plus Andruw Jones. Then there’s Teahen, who plays 3B and OF, but CWS already has Beckham/Getz/Alexei in the infield. I worry that CQ won’t get the playing time he needs to get 90 runs, 100 RBI, which is what I want from an OF drafted that high.

    CQ has the power and the FB% to hit 30+ HR, but .265, no speed and 165 (runs + RBI) doesn’t sound that much better than Swisher, Ross, Willingham, Scott, Drew, etc. – who you can draft for nothing.

  39. kwak says:
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    @neil

    No more Getz. Assuming Q is healthy (big assumption) he will be in the line-up everyday. There’s no chance he gets spelled to let Teahan play the outfield, and he will only get spelled for Jones if Q moves to DH.

    Q’s upside is vastly superior to the other guys you lists, especially since he did it just two years ago, in an admittedly injury shortened season. He might have hit 40 that year, you’re not getting anywhere near that production from Ross, Swish, Drew etc.

    His speed is also underrated. He doesn’t steal many bases but he’s an excellent base runner which helps his run total.

  40. matthole says:
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    @Grey: Read this last year and found it to be a very helpful guideline to the draft. The “BRAN” Strategy, by Rudy. Still applicable to this yr?

    DRAFT STRATEGY
    Anyway, here are the objectives of the BRAN strategy:?1) Get as much value as possible out of our first 9 picks which means keeping flexibility to take advantage of bargains.
    2) Remain balanced enough w/ your roster to take advantage of bargains at any position in rounds 10-25 – i.e., if you stack up on OFs in the 1st 9 rounds, you have to ignore OF bargains in favor of backfilling other positions (like pitcher).
    Here is the plan:?In the first 9 rounds, fill 6 set positions (1B, 2 OF, 2 SP, RP) and 3 ‘flex’ picks that can be used on the best values across any position. See below for the position breakdown – note that OF (2/3) means draft at least 2 OFs and no more than 3 OFs. Also, any round projections for players is based on 10-team leagues.
    C (0/1) – I hate picking a catcher in the first 9 rounds because 1) the stat difference between a top 3 catcher and the last drafted catcher are the smallest of any position, 2) no one is going to take an additional catcher so I know I’ll get at least the last catcher on my draft list and 3) catchers seem more likely to get injured. If you’re going to take one, aim to take someone going at least a round later than they should go.
    1B (1/2) -As my blogmate Grey points out in his Top 20 1st Basemen post, there is a top tier of about 8-10 1Bs (depending on how you feel about Youk and Votto, though Youk will get snagged earlier for 3B). The first 8 of these guys are going to get snagged in the first 4 rounds (Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Teixeira, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, A-Gonz). High-ceiling guys like Votto and Chris Davis will get picked one or more rounds early because owners w/o 1Bs will panic. Solid vets like D-Lee and Delgado can get snagged any time as a team’s cornerman. My advice is if there is a 1B at a good value in the first 4 rounds, grab him. If a top-tier 1B is still hanging around in rounds 6-9, grab him for cornerman.
    2B (0/1) – The same deal applies for 2B and SS so I’ll just write it once. Middle infielders picked in the first 9 rounds almost always turn out below the expected value at that draft position. Last year, Ian Kinsler was the only one out of 10 MIs drafted in Rounds 3-8 that provided above-average value (and, yes, that factors in position scarcity). I called this before last season in a middling infielder post. I’d look to use one of your 3 Flex Picks on either a 2B or SS and then grab the other and a MI in rounds 10-25. After catcher, I’d say these are the best positions to punt.
    SS (0/1) – See 2B.
    3B (0/1) -This is a strange year for 3B. A-Rod and Wright rule the category now that two of the top four no longer qualify (Cabrera, Braun). No argument w/ them as your 1st round pick. I don’t think there’s value to be found until Round 4 (Aramis Ramirez). Atkins could be a steal at Round 5/6. I’d avoid jumping at Chris Davis and Youk unless the value is there based on Marcel or CHONE projections – e.g., don’t believe Bill James’s projections on Chris Davis and assume Youkilis regresses after a career year.
    OF (2/3) – Since the BRAN strategy is all about balance, I suggest breaking the draft into 5 segments and aim to get one per segment. Think 1 OF in Rounds 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21+. If you can get two high-value OFs in a five round segment, go for it. There is no reason to have more than 3 OFs in the 1st 9 rounds though.
    SP (2/3) – Similar to OFs. There are some that love to punt SPs until Round 10 or so. Seems unnecessary to me. Grab 1 SP in first five rounds; then one more BEFORE rd 9. Realize there will be a round or two between the 3rd and the 6th where a number of SPs are picked – get ahead of that wave to get the most value.
    RP (1/2) – My ideal closer pick is something like the 3rd-5th closer off the board as detailed in this closer post from last year. Aim for a closer in Round 5-7 that can be your foundation (and help with ERA/WHIP/Ks). If a top tier closer makes it to Rounds 7-9 and you still have Flex picks, go for it and then you can focus on stocking up on OF and SP in rounds 10-12.
    DH (0/1) – In a league with just one UTIL slot, a DH really hurts roster flexibility. Determine what fair value is for a DH and then wait an extra 2 rounds before drafting.

  41. matthole says:
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    my apologies didnt realize the length on that

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: You’d be better to ask Rudy in his roundtable post today if he’s going to update Bran, but I think it’s possible and/or applicable.

  43. Nick says:
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    There was a guy in my league last year (my girlfriend’s brother) who drafted Quentin and got divorced…don’t feel sorry for him though – that’s what he gets for being a White Sox fan.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nick: I can’t tell if that’s a vote for or against Quentin.

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