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Yes, I’m using the term sleeper loosely.  And I wrote this post in October and left it in The Dungeon of Forgotten Posts along with the post, Alex Gordon, 2009 Is His Year!  Anyone that has a couple of percolating neurotransmitters knows Carlos Gonzalez.  So this is for everyone else.  Hello, friend.  Put down the fork.  You don’t need that to read.  You read with your eyes.  Perfect!  Now put on some pants.  That’s a sweater… Aw, forget it.  Carlos Gonzalez is the doode in the Rockies outfield.  He’s also the guy that can go 20/20 with upside in each category.  Some supersized brains have compared him to Alex Rios.  Before you jump out your window, they meant it as a compliment.  Rios wasn’t always a Scarlet Letter. Jump in your DeLorean and go back to 2007, or simply read this next sentence.  Rios went 24/17 in ’07.  Can Carlos Gonzalez do the same in 2010?  Is he a fantasy sleeper (assuming you’ve been asleep for the last few months)?

Yeah, Pony Boy, he is.  24/17 seems to be on the high side for what I’d expect of CarGo.  The other day someone asked Carlos Gonzalez vs. Andrew McCutchen? This is a great question.  It’s nearly tomato-tomahto. One has 20/20 upside, one has 15/35 upside.  I’d side with McCutchen because speed doesn’t evaporate, while power can be tricky for a youngster. (Fiddlesticks, I’m an oldster. I use words like youngster.) Look at Rios’s power for an example of where power can go.  Gonzalez still swings at a few too many balls outside the strike zone, so his average of .284 may be the upper reaches over a full season.  .270 seems more likely.  To continue this hybrid comparison of Rios, McCutchen and CarGo or Alex McCarGo (who’s a lot better than Aaron McCargo), I’d take them in that order, but they’re all really close and it doesn’t mean I don’t like Gonzalez.  Rios is only first because he’s a bit more known.  CarGo and McCutchen blow him away if you want upside.  Carlos Gonzalez is definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Just keep expectations in check.

  1. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    What do you think about Mr. Wang in Washington as a potential sleeper? He seems to be healthy going in to the season, and he used to be pretty good. Doesn’t hurt that he is a sinker baller in the NL as well. Your thoughts?

  2. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    yeah i like McCutchen,but cargo is nice,wish they would give seth smith full time but probably not the 1st half anyway

  3. sean says:
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    From RotoWorld: “Tigers manager Jim Leyland sounded more committed Wednesday to the idea of using young outfielder Austin Jackson as his leadoff hitter.”

    Is Jackson’s rookie year more likely to be Maybin than McCutchen?

  4. AdamK says:
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    tiebreaker has gotta be the nickname.

    dread pirate easily gets drafted first

  5. Eddy says:
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    I want to get excited about CarGo, but I always force myself to read the “keep your expectations in check” part of his blurb. I can’t afford to draft someone in the 10th round that has Nate McClouth numbers.

    I made it so we have two UTIL spots in my league and I’m planning to target Borbon and Bruce for those spots. I’ll let some other dude jump on the CarGo’s hype train and be scared off by Bruces average.

  6. donniebball says:
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    mista grey
    do you think e.longoria will become a 40 HR threat? or do you think 30-35 is his cap?

    do you think wright will be a 20/20 guy? or does he have room to be a 30/20 guy?

  7. Tony says:
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    @donniebball: david wright already has been a 33/15, 30/34, and 26/20 guy…. he just got a new ballpark, and had his entire team decide to DL it for a year.

    If you’re asking will he get back to 30HR’s? I’m thinking grey is going to say no… and 20-25 would be nice, anything more is gravy.

    Personally I think wright is being undervalued this year. I think he’ll bounce back and go 20/25 with a plus .300 average. With a healthy reyes, healthy bay, and possibly beltran, he’ll get the speedster on base and protection he needs.

  8. mc serch says:
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    @Eddy: That sounds like a dynamic duo (ahem)….what’s the deal with the two Utility format on Yahaoo anyway? Is this the new style? If so, it definitely changes drafting strategy a bit. Kinda forces you to go big on offense through the first ten rounds or so.

  9. Ian says:
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    Do you think CarGo will be the lead off man in Colorado? Dexter Fowler seems better for the role – higher BB%, more speed, less power.

  10. Jobu's Rum says:
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    Ha! “Pony Boy”. Love it. Stay golden!

  11. Freak says:
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    I enjoy using the cargo nickname. Especially when I’m talking to rockies and twins fans at the same time.

  12. Freak says:
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    Hold up, when was cargo traded to the brewers?

  13. Ian says:
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    @Freak: I wish the good CarGo was shipped to my Brewers. Instead we got the crappy sub .300 OBP CarGo.

  14. PJtres says:
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    @grey/tony/donniebball

    i asked something similar last night…
    in my keeper league, i was offered dwright/holliday for vmart/longoria

    do you take that???
    my concern is longo goes NUTS and is a 1st rounder for the next 10 years as a 40/10 threat and wright is “just” a 20/20 guy from here on out and a true 2nd rounder…

    ??? help!!!

  15. Kelvin Escobar complains of shoulder discount on first day of camp.

    Jane Lee from MLB.com tweets that Joey Devine is way ahead of his rehab schedule and will enter camp with no restrictions.

    Joel Zumaya is feeling great after his off season shoulder surgery.

  16. brett says:
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    @PJtres: That’s a VERY tough call. I think I’d rather have the Longoria side because of his upside and vmart’s catcher eligibility in the short term.

  17. black love says:
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    so i have the 12th pick in my main league that i play in. what do you think if i grab 2 1st basemen with my first 2 picks. i would only do this if there was some combo of, teixeira:fielder:cabrara:howard. this is also assuming that longoria, kemp, braun and the other top teir offensive players are gone.
    so you think this stratgey could work or should i take the best 1st base i can and move on?

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Asdrubal Bastardo: I won’t believe he’s healthy until he has some game action.

    @AL KOHOLIC: Smith slept with Jim Tracy’s wife.

    @sean: Maybin, but not best comparisons. Probably somewhere in between.

    @AdamK: True

    @donniebball: Wright is a 25/15 guy, hopefully. Longoria can get to 40.

    @Ian: I hope it’s Fowler. Would make more sense.

    @Jobu’s Rum: Hehe

    @mrbaseball: Nice updates! Uh-oh, someone’s waking Joey Devine…

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @black love: I’d prefer to not do that.

  20. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @black love: i’d do that and just fill your util/CI spot with a stud. they are safer picks that guys like wright (will the power return? seriously high babip in 2009?) or lincecum (sp at the #12/#13 pick?) or kinsler (health) or tulo (slow starter, horrid 2008) or reyes/sizemore (inury). maybe i could see holiday there, but i think those 4 1Bs out produce him. but you get the point.

    not to mention, you’d seriously drain the 1B pool for anyone who didn’t jump on a 1B in round 1.

  21. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    What is wrong with Alex Rios? Is there a reason he went from stud to dud in like two seasons?

  22. royce! says:
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    Interesting ranking of Rios, McCutchen, CarGo. Based on MDC ADPs, they’re going McCutchen (91), Rios (109), CarGo (123). On Yahoo, however, I keep seeing Rios go a lot later (like 9 rounds) than McCutchen, and Gonzalez going somewhere in between. The most likely cause for this is their default ranks, which are around 6th and 15th rounders. So for those in Yahoo leagues, keep in mind that if you miss McCutchen, just stick around for 9 rounds and you can get someone better, though perhaps less charming.

  23. JoeC says:
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    CarGo a sleeper, huh? What’s next? The Albert Pujols sleeper post?! ;)

    In fact, I’m pretty sure that CarGo will be over-hyped this year, especially if you draft in a league full of somewhat savvy f-ballers (like mine).

    Thus and therefore, I probably won’t own him.

  24. GTS says:
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    Which 7 players would you keep? Auction league $260 cap/team, 6×5 (+OPS), roster C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4 OF, 1 UTIL, 6 SP, 3 RP.

    Rollins Jimmy SS PHI 28
    Howard Ryan 1B PHI 28
    Fielder Prince 1B MIL 25
    Martinez Victor C BOS 19
    Kinsler Ian 2B TEX 19
    Nathan Joe RP MIN 17
    Holliday Matt LF STL 16
    Upton Justin RF ARI 14
    Werth Jayson RF PHI 12
    Longoria Evan 3B TB 10
    Lincecum Tim SP SF 10
    Jimenez Ubaldo SP COL 7

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IowaCubs: I don’t know, I have him ranked higher than most still. He’s not over the hill and he’s a potential 20/20 guy.

    @royce!: Yeah, Rios is probably the actual sleeper here.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Fielder, Kinsler, Holliday, Upton, Longoria, Lincecum and Ubaldo… Crazy keepers there.

  27. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @GTS:
    upton
    licecum
    longoria
    holliday

    those are gimmes.

    not sure where i’d go on the rest though. i’d favor fielder over howard. i’d also lean kinsler. i’d be hesitant on rollins for that much. pretty sure i’d stay away from vmart and nathan too. so that leaves howard, ubaldo, and werth for the final spot. i’d prefer howard from a pure production standpoint, but it could depend on whether you’d rather you’d be able to spend the $$ you save by keeping werth or ubaldo elsewhere. if the studs are gonna be gone anyway, and howard is a decent value at $28, then you might be more inclined to keep him.

  28. royce! says:
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    @IowaCubs: I think first off his BABIP was unusually low for him (.273 compared to .331, .319, and .336 the past three years). But this probably came about because his LD rate went down, his GB rate went up, and his IFFB rate went up. He also struck out more and walked less. Which leads me to believe that he became a worse hitter. Perhaps he just needs to relax? R.J. Anderson thinks no:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/alex-rios-folds-under-pressure

    I guess Grey said it best: “I don’t know.”

  29. GTS says:
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    @Grey: @ThePoonTycoon:

    I’m going to see if I can trade Howard, Werth, Rollins, or V-Mart. I like the idea of keeping Ubaldo and I like Werth’s value. Hard to give up Howard and if I do keep him it would be the last year to keep him. It’s definitely a good problem to have.

  30. Northside Drew says:
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    Great timing on this post! I joined a newly started league where you pick 2 MLB teams to select 3 keepers (at least 1 pitcher) each from to be the core of your fantasy team. My teams are the Phillies and Rockies. I had all keepers decided except for the last from the Rockies. Would you say CarGo or Ian Stewart? I’m leaning CarGo.

    BTW, here are the keepers – I think they’re no brainers, but let me know if I missed something:
    Philles – Utley, Howard, Halladay
    Rockies – Tulowitzki, Jimenez, CarGo/Stewart

  31. matthole says:
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    @Grey: rios or hart for later rd flier?

  32. Stephen says:
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    @Ian: You got the CarGo that is one of the top defenders in the league at age 23.

    I wrote this yesterday on my Minor League Review article, but I honestly think this is the year Alex Gordon makes good on his hype.

    @Real Tom: Alex Gordon is still a tweener. If he has a good year in 2010, then we can start to get excited. At age 26, and having two decent years is helpful, albeit not for a top prospect, he is riding the same wagon that Delmon Young is driving. The talent is the there, the skills are there, but the production has yet to materialize. Think of Jason Kubel though. He didn’t breakout until last year. Granted, Kubel was trending in the right direction (helps when you hit behind Mauer and Morneau). Gordon was trending in the right direction too (‘07: 247/.314/.411 in 534 AB; ‘08:.260/.351/432 in 493 AB but with 25 more walks and 17 less strikeouts. He also had 36 doubles in 07 and 35 doubles in 08)

    Kubel is 28 this year, Gordon just turned 26 on February 10th. With the recent trade with Chicago, Fields and Teahan now block Gordon more than ever. Truthfully, he’ll need every opportunity he can get this year to prove himself. However, just in the short time I was finding those numbers, Gordon may be this years Adam Lind.

    Call me crazy, but Gordon may have tons of value this year if he can stay healthy.

  33. Frank Rizzo says:
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    CarGo is an obvious sleeper. I like his upside for 20 HR’s in the thin air. That said Rios, where he’s going in mocks, has more potential. He could be one of the best bargains in drafts this year. I agree with what others have said…..Rios/McCutch/Cargo in that order. I have at least 2 of these guys in all of my mocks because I like to go power and pitching before filling out my bottom 3 OF’s. And I like filling my OF with athletic 5 tool potential guys.

  34. Eddy says:
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    @mc serch:
    lucky for me I’ve always been a fan of raw power. I plan on having a SAGNOF guy in one slot and power in the other that can be trade bait. I think yahoo made it 2 spots to imitate the CI/MI slots that many leagues have. I guess another added benefit would be to still have flexibility if you’re one of those that drafts 2 1B in the first few rounds.

    Regardless of the positives or negatives, I’m just damn happy I won’t have to deal with sonavabenches as often because of that added UTIL.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Northside Drew: Those are some good teams. I’d go Stewart barely over CarGo. I’d then draft pretty heavy on outfield early.

    @matthole: Rios

  36. greenmountaincoffee says:
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    @grey

    What about starting with two 1Bs in a keeper league where we keep 2 hitters? Keeping Cabrera/Gonzo and picking 13th (then not again until 36).

    Would that change your thoughts on starting with two 1Bs?

  37. CoreyII says:
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    Keeper advice question. I’m probably keeping 2 OF – which would you like best?

    Matt Holliday – Rd 2
    Andre Ethier – Rd 6
    Shane Victorino – Rd 7
    Denard Span – Rd 13
    Nate McLouth – Rd 13

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @greenmountaincoffee: Sounds okay, but no idea who your other options are.

    @CoreyII: Holliday and Ethier, assuming 12 team league.

  39. TimO says:
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    Hey Grey

    I get:
    H. Ramirez
    M. Garza

    I give:
    M. Cabrera
    C. Lee
    J. Bartlett

    No brainer right?

  40. TimO says:
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    Cliff Lee to avoid any confusion

  41. Tom Reale says:
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    Good morning. Just finished a 12 team Roto draft. What do you think?

    1. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
    2. Miguel Cabrera (Det – 1B)
    3. Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
    4. Jayson Werth (Phi – OF)
    5. Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
    6. Adam Lind (Tor – OF)
    7. Adam Dunn (Was – 1B,OF)
    8. Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
    9. Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
    10. Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
    11. Carlos González (Col – OF)
    12. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    13. Gordon Beckham (CWS – 3B)
    14. Miguel Montero (Ari – C)
    15. Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)
    16. Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
    17. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
    18. David Price (TB – SP)
    19. Trevor Hoffman (Mil – RP)
    20. Mike González (Bal – RP)
    21. Octavio Dotel (Pit – RP)
    22. Everth Cabrera (SD – SS)
    23. Max Scherzer (Det – SP)

  42. sean says:
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    @Grey: I think you’re right that Rios is probably the true sleeper here. Like you said last year, drafting Rios is a good move as long as you have your expectations in check. He’s not a 25/25 guy. He’s a 15/20 guy with some upside. Where he’s being drafted (150 CBS ADP) makes that valuable. His career year could return top 50 value and his floor can’t be much lower than last year’s 63/17/71/24/.247 with consistent playing time.

  43. mc serch says:
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    @IowaCubs: @Eddy: agreed…I have been hating most second round picks in the mocks, too much risk. Maybe the answer is to go with two stud first basemen early like blacklove is talking about. Imagine going [1] Tex/Cabrera, [2]Fielder/Howard; [3] Zimmerman and [4] Cano first four picks and then fill out the OF with two or three 20/20 type guys (Werth/Granderson/Choo/N. Cruz/ Pence) while interspersing a SP or two before taking Weiters and Elvis in the 10 and 11th. A dude can dream, no?

    @IowaCubs: I’ve been thinking the same thing, I think he will be on my team this season.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TimO: Go for it.

    @Tom Reale: I think I like:

    15. Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)
    16. Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
    17. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
    18. David Price (TB – SP)

    In smaller doses. That’s a lot of risk for one team. Also, not a huge fan of Scherzer.

    @sean: Yeah, think about that floor. 17/24? I’ll take that.

  45. mc serch says:
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    @Tom Reale: Your first 6 picks are sick! Lind in the 6th is found money. I think you are going to have some SB and WHIP issues though

  46. Tom Reale says:
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    @Grey: I know, I’m K Krazy! I would probably look to turn my bench:

    JaBru (new Cincy Rapper)
    CarGo
    Beckham
    into another solid SP

    I’m not big on Scherzer either but not a bad 23 round flier right?

  47. Tom Reale says:
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    @mc serch: Agreed. I would try to trade for a solid WHIP guy. But we are a little on the slow side.

  48. sean says:
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    While we’re on post post post-hype sleepers, is it worth dusting off McLousy? A lot of ‘perts are priming him for a better season. You project 95/20/75/.260/20. CBS ADP is 151. Obviously not the 5th round guy that people thought he was heading into last year, but this ADP seems to provide a value opportunity..

  49. Stephen says:
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    I hate doing this, but following up from yesterday about my mock with the 6th pick:

    1. Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
    2. Matt Holliday (StL – OF)
    3. Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
    4. Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
    5. Adam Lind (Tor – OF)
    6. Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
    7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)
    8. Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
    9. Heath Bell (SD – RP)
    10. Ian Stewart (Col – 2B,3B)
    11. Matt Garza (TB – SP)
    12. Francisco Rodríguez (NYM – RP)
    13. Randy Wolf (Mil – SP)
    14. Miguel Montero (Ari – C)
    15. Brandon Webb (Ari – SP)
    16. Frank Francisco (Tex – RP)
    17. Chris Davis (Tex – 1B,3B)
    18. Bobby Jenks (CWS – RP)
    19. Tim Hudson (Atl – SP)
    20. Kyle Blanks (SD – OF)
    21. Wade Davis (TB – SP)
    22. Everth Cabrera (SD – SS)
    23. Joel Piñeiro (LAA – SP)

    The Wolf pick was an auto pick while i was dilly dallying around at other sites. I am not used to drafting in 12 team leagues (normally 20 team) so I wasn’t quite sure when to get the closers that I did. I have a little flexibility but not much and my pitching is decent.

  50. Tom Reale says:
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    @Grey: Would you rather go for a 4th closer there? There was still Lyon, Crapps, Lidgson and FraDowGregg available.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Yeah, he’s 20/20/.260. Not bad at all. I have him higher than 150 so I like him.

    @Stephen: Look at Mr. Conservative taking Pineiro. That’s a 20 team league pick. Team looks good outside of Wolf, and I hear ya on that. Other “sites,” indeed. Bell in the 9th works fine. Also, the other closers make sense too. Really like the staff outside of the aforementioned Wolf and Webb, but in the 13th I guess it’s fine.

    @Tom Reale: I would’ve took Capps or Lidge.

  52. Antrim Warriors says:
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    anyone…Where is Cargo to hit in the Rockies’ lineup?

  53. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: Makes me feel better to hear that my strategies are transferable. As for conservative picks, I tend to make more gambles during the season. There is a lot of risk with Blanks, Cabrera and Wade/Chris Davis for me to take a safer last pick.

  54. Tom Reale says:
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    @Grey: thanks

  55. CoreyII says:
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    @Grey: It is actually a 14 team league – does that change things? I’ve been considering keeping my later round guys and letting the higher ones fall back into the draft.

  56. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @CoreyII: Would make me want Ethier more. You want rock solid guys in a league that deep. McLouth’s not terrible, but Ethier’s a better name.

  57. Keith says:
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    This is a weird question but I thought strategy wise I could see what you thought. I’m in a keeper league with the standard format of 1 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, a CI, a MI, 5 OF, and 9 P. We also, for the 1st time ever, will have the possibility of drafting 2 prospects during the main draft (so you have to decide when to draft Stanton since he can’t play this year). Our draft goes from rounds 9 through 29 but I wanted to figure out how many picks are really needed. If I will draft a 5th OF in the 28th round to just drop them later the pick is a waste. I figured the main positions plus CI and MI are all important non-waiver wire. I also think 4 of the 5 OF and 7 of the 9 pitchers should also be non-waiver wire type guys (4 and 7 is 11). Add 2 prospects and subtract 8 keepers and that leaves 12 players that need to be picked (7+4+7+2-8=12).

    Since we have 20 rounds I figured I could package lower picks and move up a lot. If I’m going to drop rounds 23-29 anyway why not package a 16 and 24 and move up to round 14?

    Is this strategy sound? Also, where would you take a prospect like Stanton? I was thinking he could be a top 10 OF within 3 years and he’s worth a gamble in the 3rd round of picks (round 11 with keepers). Do you think that would be way overvaluing him?

  58. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Who would you keep ot of the following?

    Keeper league, add 5 dollars per year.

    Bills-15
    Hamels-20
    Feliz (in a trade)-5

  59. BigFatHippo says:
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    @BigFatHippo: OOpps….ot should have been out. You’re not Canadian, eh?

    There are no hippo’s in Canadia………….

  60. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Bills is okay, but I thought we already had your keepers set. What’s that aboot, eh?

  61. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: May be working on a trade to grab a young cheap stud pitcher like I did 3 years ago with Bills and Hamels, won me a championship 2 years ago. Does Feliz fit that bill?

  62. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Feliz could be that but he’s not going to go for more than $5 anyway. But, then again, those other two won’t go for more than those prices either.

  63. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Thanks, I think I’ll pull the trigger if he accepts. Feliz could be a $20 pitcher in two years and I’d have him cheap. That would give me a cheap pitcher core of Feliz, Wandy and Weaver for the next 2 or 3 years. Ya think?

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Look at you with three year plans. You’re like a Kate Hudson movie. I like that for the next few years, but Wandy’s prone to injury (really most pitchers are) so I’m not sure he’ll last in your three year plan. But it’s a good year or two plan. Three years for Feliz.

  65. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Kate Hudson, ha!

    Our league seems to be weighted evenly between pitching and hitting. I figured that out about 4 years ago and was able to build a staff of Hamels, Bills, Shields on the cheap and draft Webb as a trump card. Then traded power for Halladay that put me over the top.

    In a rebuilding mood again, much like the Washington Nattys…………not sure that’s a good thing, but better than the Pirates!

  66. majortommy says:
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    Is it me or does CarGo remind you a lot of Vernon Wells?

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @majortommy: I could see that comparison. Luckily, he’s the young, valuable Wells right now.

  68. majortommy says:
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    @Grey: Just sayin

  69. Tom Reale says:
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    @majortommy: It’s just you! But, you should probably keep Wells cause I just know this is the year that he really turns it on!

  70. 24/17 … I can get that from Mike Cameron, and all the Runs and RBI’s that go with the Boston offense, 100 picks later.

    Cargo is bound to be over hyped this year, and as such won’t be seen on any of my rosters. Sad.

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