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What Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb all have in common is obvious.  They all belong in the Pitchers Who Shouldn’t Speak At Next Year’s Fantasy Baseball Symposium For Fear Of Being Attacked category.  To a certain respect, Ricky Nolasco is right there with them.  He came out of the gate looking like a three-legged pony that wore a ribbon sponsored by Elmer’s Glue.  The reason why I point out Nolasco as a potential keeper is there’s a good chance someone dropped him in your league when he was sent to the minors, so you might have him for a free round pick or very cheap.  If that’s the case, giddy up, pony boy!  I like Nolasco’s potential for next year.  Through 147 innings, he has a 147/37 K/BB ratio, that’s outstanding.  Any time a pitcher is throwing a K an inning and keeping his walks in check, he’s worth considering for next year if you have him on the cheap.  He may just be my Wandy for next year, appearing on a majority of my teams.  Also, the reason I didn’t like him in the beginning of this year (high innings in 2008) is the reason why he’s now appealing in 2010 (low innings in 2009).  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Joey Votto – He was dealing with some shizz earlier in the year that cost him over a month of the season.  So let’s say he had his average month of 5 homers during that month off, then he’d be blowing his 2008 season out of the water and taking that natural step forward many predicted.  For a player who will only be 26 next year, don’t be thrown off by the late season tailspin this year.  He’s still very capable of being a 30 homer, 10 steal, .300 average 1st baseman.  With upside from there.

Chris Davis – I’ll be perfectly honest.  I love when guys fail after they are hyped.  This allows their value to fall and people to begin to forget them.  I’m actually kind of excited to even see if Josh Hamilton falls far enough in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts for me to have a chance at drafting him.  The same goes for Davis.  Last preseason, I talked about how Davis was overrated and ended up with Mini Donkey on all of my teams as a replacement.  That worked out okay.  With the emphasis on the imaginary “very, very” before okay.  In 2010, it might just be Davis’s turn to strikeout 200 times and give decent production.  As a keeper (I’m assuming he was dropped and you have him for cheap), Davis is looking much better for next year.

  1. Razzin says:
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    Great keeper. I love me some Votto, emotional baggage and all.

    Nolasco– 6+ERA in last few starts vs. Braves. Trying to protect my ERA, but need Ws, don’t need Ks. Put him on the shelf today?

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Razzin: I’d sit him for today.

  3. Jeff says:
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    12 team 5×5 roto keeper league. We start 1 1B, a 5th IF, 4 OF’s and a Utility spot in addition to all the standard positions.

    I can only afford to keep 2 of the following 3; Morneau $35, Miggy $40, Crawford $42.

    Also was offered Kendry($8) for Crawrford. Do I go for it then keep Miggy, Morneau, and Kendry?

  4. DrEasy says:
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    Morales has SP eligibility (at least on Yahoo), which makes him even a tastier add.

  5. Jeff says:
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    BTW, Choo, Cruz, and Span are my current OF keepers besides Crawford.

  6. Colotov Mocktease says:
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    Grey,

    Quote from Jim Tracy:

    “Franklin wants to be out there, and that’s part of it,” manager Jim Tracy said Thursday. “Did you see his emotion out there? He’s going to get the ball until we get Huston back.”

    My Guild of Calamitous Relievers includes Cordero, Howell, MacDougal and JJ. Thinking of dropping JJ for Morales? Concur?

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jeff: I don’t like filling up UTIL spot with Morales. Will hurt you’re drafting. I do like an $8 Kendry better than a $35 Morneau though.

    @Colotov Mocktease: Lose JJ for Morales.

  8. zombie says:
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    @Grey: To love Street is to own Street (this season). Showing patience with his recovery into our playoffs next week will be difficult. But maybe we’ll know something more definitive by this weekend. Summarizing your tentative brain freeze closer ranking would you say Street (with a next week return), then MacDougal, Morales, Betancourt, Jimmie J.? & drop JJ despite his “closer” status for any ranked above him? Thanks again.

  9. TJ says:
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    Funny that you mention both Nolasco and Davis in the post.

    Already starting to look forward and think about my keepers for next year.
    In a H2H league where we keep 5 players, based on draft rounds. Categories- R, H, HR, RBI, SB, TB, AVG, OPS, XBH, W, CG, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, QS

    I have three keepers already picked for sure- Hanley, Kemp and Kinsler.

    Picking my last two from the following:
    Josh Hamilton (can only keep for 2010)
    Nolasco (can keep through 2013)
    Chris Davis (can keep through 2013)
    Gordon Beckham (can keep through 2013)

    Which 2 of those 4 would you pick as the best keepers?

  10. Rickey from Alviso says:
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    Grey,

    Me likey Razzball, but me no likey Paypal. Do I have an alternative?

  11. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    I was going to ask a really long question about which 14 of my 30 players I should keep, but I’ll save it for the offseason.

    In the meantime, should I start Buccholz tonight against the Rays in a 10 team shallow h2h?

  12. Brett Myers is being activated tomorrow. Think he’s a must pick-up in a 12-team league entering H2H playoffs next week? Would be dropping Joba, CarGo, or Kouzmanoff. Already have Ryan Franklin, Howell, and Morales. Blech!

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @zombie: I’d drop JJ for Morales. I wouldn’t place Street in front of those other guys with arm soreness.

    @TJ: That’s tough. My heart says Nolasco and Davis, but my head says Nolasco and Hamilton.

    @Rickey from Alviso: Sorry, that’s the only option. Thanks for trying though.

    @IowaCubs: I wouldn’t.

    @VanHammersly: I don’t think he’s a must add at all. But Joba’s not helping anything, so you can lose him for Myers.

  14. TJ says:
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    @Grey: Appreciate the advice.

    I’m leaning away from Hamilton solely due to my disappointment in him this year. Oh, another injury? Big surprise.

    I like Nolasco a lot, and wouldn’t mind keeping one solid SP with good K numbers.

    And you like Davis over Beckham? Davis is the power guy, boom or bust. Beckham seems like a more polished hitter with less power but better BA.

    Tough decisions, but I have all winter to decide.

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TJ: I like Beckham next year, but you can find a MI that’s comparable in the draft. Davis has bigger upside.

  16. Steve says:
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    Just in case y’all are wondering what to do with all those old Bill James Abstracts and Handbooks and copies of Baseball Prospectus you don’t have room for anymore…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8L7TnWx8As

  17. Taco says:
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    what are your thoughts on dye right now? H2H playoffs loom and I’m thinking about dropping him for pie.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha!

    @Taco: I’d lose him for Pie.

  19. knighttown says:
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    I loves me some loopholes. In a league where 6 teams are separated by 2 saves, I’m now rocking 6 relief pitchers in a 3 RP league. Rivera, Rodney and MacDougall are RP’s and Neftali, Morales and Gutierrez are in SP slots because of dual eligibility. I’m half thinking about going after Phil Hughes as well to get that ever elusive 7-save night but to make that happen I’d have to drop someone useful like E-Jax.

    Not worth it right?

  20. mr baseball says:
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    Brett Cecil – what future value does he have – 2nd 3rd 4th fantasy starter for a team – how about future strike outs -

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @knighttown: Nah, not worth it.

    @mr baseball: Great for Ks, should be at least a #3, probably a #2. May not come until 2011 though, but there’s a possibility of it in 2010.

  22. Corey II says:
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    my rotation is seriously hurting heading into my 14 team league H2H playoffs next week, and the very thin waiver wire is my only hope at grabbing some potentially non horrible pitchers.

    would you consider grabbing Vicente Padilla (dodgers have a really easy schedule the rest of the way)? Masterson? Hochevar? Fister? is Morrow supposed to come up soon? Any other very no-name SPs that are widely unowned you’d give a shot (even if just for next week’s matchups)

    i’m already owning guys like Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Richard so i’ll take anything

  23. knighttown says:
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    I’m on a bad run of poorly timed SP starts. I catch Harden and Vazquez getting hit hard but miss Weaver, Scherzer and Oswalt throwing gems. I’m still right there so I’m sure its not as bad as it seems but I’d like to know how you would rate my guys:

    A- start against everyone
    B- avoid only Yankees, Boston, Tampa, Angels and Philly (for instance)
    C- start against SD, Sea, NYM, SF, Ari, Oak, KC, Pit (for instance)
    D- never start

    Vazquez, Oswalt, Harden, Sanchez, Weaver, Jackson, E. Santana, Scherzer (dropped but could pick up).

    I suppose you need to know what I need. Wins=WHIP>K=ERA.

    Also, are my 5 or 6 “good” matchups and “bad” matchups pretty accurate?

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Corey II: I’d grab Padilla. Not sure who else is available, maybe Rowland-Smith? Sean West?

    @knighttown: I’d be careful with Ervin, Weaver, Oswalt and Edwin.

  25. Corey II says:
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    @Grey: sadly Rowland Smith and West are both owned.

  26. Jareth Cutestory says:
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    Losing Votto for that month sure sucked. First they sent him to an analyst, then a therapist, then finally an analrapist which seemed to set him right. I am keeping him on my auction team, he could win a batting title while he knocks in 30+

  27. Tom says:
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    So… as a Dodgers fan, I have trouble making sense of the Thome trade. I’m still trying to figure it out.

    So far, I’ve come up with two possible hidden reasons for the move:

    1. Ned Colletti actually traded for Bobby Jenks, but when Ozzie Guillen got up and said “They just $%&%-ing traded the #@^$%-ing big white guy,” Thome hopped on the bus before anybody could clarify. Sorry, Jenks. Maybe next time.

    2. Thome’s not exactly a handsome man. Standing next to him will likely boost everyone’s self esteem. Playing with Andre Ethier has probably messed with everyone’s head anyway.

  28. EricB says:
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    @knighttown: Here’s how I’d rate your pitchers:

    I have a spreadsheet where I analyze the last 8 starts of all starting pitchers. I was sucking big time in pitching until I built this spreadsheet and now I’m surging up huge in pitching from the data gleaned from it. It has 150 starting pitchers (5 per MLB team) ranked 1 through 150. Currently the top 5 are Cliff Lee, Sabathia, Greinke, Lincecum, Verlander based on most recent performances. As for your pitchers they are ranked:

    9. Rich Harden
    10. Javier Vazquez
    29. Jonathan Sanchez
    32. Max Scherzer
    52. Roy Oswalt
    70. Ervin Santana
    76. Jered Weaver
    108. Edwin Jackson

    Based on that ranking Harden and Vazquez are As. Sanchez and Scherzer are Bs. Oswalt is a C. Santana, Weaver, and Jackson are Ds.

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom: Ha! I like the first possible reason.

    @EricB: Looks like I pegged the bottom four as guys to be careful of.

  30. knighttown says:
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    @EricB:

    Very nice Eric. And accurate as usual Grey. So I guess dropping E-Jax for Scherzer makes some sense?

  31. royce! says:
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    @Corey II: Here are the no name pitchers that I picked up for my 20 team h2h playoffs, and they’re all 2 starters, as far as I know:

    VandenHurk (@NYM and WAS)
    Duensing (@TOR and OAK)
    Manship (ditto)

    Moehler and Paulino were also (terrible, terrible) possibilities, and Moehler should have PHI and PIT, Paulino ATL and PIT.

    So it should be an interesting week…

  32. royce! says:
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    Oh, and Jake Peavy’s apparently writing lyrics for an emo band (and/or taken an interest in writing girl’s high school poetry- take your pick):

    “I feel so close, yet so far and not where I want to be,” Peavy said.

    Whatever happened to “Sweet Home Alabama,” Jake?

  33. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @EricB: Always interested in results. The fact that you have turned around your performance based upon your spreadsheet is tantalizing. Willing to share criteria the criteria that you use in spreadsheet?

  34. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @EricB: Is there something “magical” about ;ast 8, not 7 or 9?

  35. Myles says:
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    Grey,

    I have Bengie Molina on my H2H team going into the playoffs next week.

    Mike Napoli is in free agents right now. Should I stick with a questionable Molina or pick up Napoli?

  36. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: So far: Butler, Votto, Davis all as first base targets for 2010. Care to begin ranking them?

  37. mr baseball says:
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    Eugenio Velez or Casey McGehee at second base next year in that 20 team keeper league – you think this is easy

  38. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: I have zero interest in football. Am unwilling to sift through the plethora of football posts to Forums. I won’t be going there anymore, and my loss will be missing some interesting baseball news. Will stick to these dailies for my info.

  39. Trevor says:
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    Ricky is undoubtedly a keeper for me in my 16 teamer. On may 19th I got the mini Donkey, Nolasco, and Rich Hill for Chipper and Lilly. We keep 10 and have a draft for the rest. Was this as much of a steal as I think?

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Trevor: Great deal for you!

  41. Aaron Pil says:
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    “That worked out okay. ”

    And by okay you mean “amazingly well”

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