@Iamweasel: I hear what you’re saying on postseason pitches but I don’t think it’s a huge factor in this specific analysis. I doubt many pitchers in 2005-2007 fell just under 2700 pitches and the postseason pitches would boost them over the edge to qualify. Same for defining pitchers who dropped off with < 2000 pitches – doubt there are any false inclusions of those who snuck over that number based on postseason. There could be a couple that jump over the +700 mark between years if you factor in postseason. Hard to say. Just don’t see this being a big enough factor to invest the hours of digging it would take to total this up.

xFIP is at the Hardball Times, (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&qual_filter=1&season_filter0=2008&league_filter0=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=xFip&direction=ASC&page=1)

and QERA is from Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=QERA), although it’s not available as a sortable stat. But even calculating it yourself is easy with a spreadsheet, as it only uses three inputs, K%, BB% and GB%.

Since you’re looking at sort of predicting performance here, I think either of these might be slightly better metrics to use. Of course, I’ve been known to argue about pitching metrics longer than most…

Very interesting stuff. A couple of questions. First, can you explain why you used the cutoffs for “breaking ball” pitchers at 30%+ and 27%+? Because that gives you about half of the sample?

Also, I’d be interested to see if you had similar findings if you used something like QERA or xFIP instead of FIP. FIP is definitely preferable to ERA in a study like this, but a small increase in HRs, possibly due only to random variation, can have a large effect on a single year’s FIP.

Oh, wait — that happened to me.

@Tony Y: It’s true about McLouth et al. but more true, I think about pitchers. Though I seem to recall trying to make a definitive list of undrafted breakouts last year and the pitcher to hitter ratio was about 3:2. This was very unscientific, however.

Also, breakout hitters seem to get snapped up in the first month. And you can ride pitchers hot streaks more easily than hitters, it seems. (Not sure if that works in H2H, which sounds like a supplement and should, similarly, be illegal.)

Was there anyone of value, hitting-wise, to emerge in the second half last year? Bruce? Davis? Salty? I seem to recall them all sitting together sad-faced in a diner, Boulevard of Broken Dreams-style. It all seems so long ago, thankfully…

Also, has anyone here ever tried a pitcher-first drafting strategy? One guy in my league last year drafted Peavy and Webb in the 2nd and 4th, respectively. Didn’t help him much. His offense sucked, partly because he fell madly in love with Josh Hamilton, rather than trading him at midseason as ANY SANE MAN WOULD HAVE DONE.

The problem with having pitchers with multiple seasons is that you have to control for that statistically. Nothing you can really do in a simple set up like this. I can understand that you have to use multiple seasons.

In any case, there are multiple tradeoffs here in trying to identify the best predictor (the old Type I and Type II errors from stats), and the base measure you have here does better, at least on this simple measure, than others.

Also, I don’t know your H2H’s rules, but usually H2H is the most easily manipulated for pitching, i.e., grab some relievers and two start pitchers and forget ratios. This makes drafting pitching especially useless.

My keypoint is (at least in my league) Johan does not mean you’re going to be able to trade him for say Carlos Lee, get me? So if you’re taking one of these “big name big game pitchers” dont do it for trading purposes, you better be doing it because you’re planning on riding them. In my H2H league pitching is very valuable, but trade wise its not worth half of a stick…. So I too go with drafting offense for about the first 7-8 rounds, then take a pitcher, and BILLS is looking nice this year?

Go tribe!

@Gotowarmissagnes: Finally a criticism! The sample is over multiple years and was clearly stated that (2006-2008). A single year just nets too low of a sample. This does mean that a pitcher could be counted multiple times under three unique pitching seasons. I suppose league FIP does vary slightly year-to-year which could over/under-estimate the number of 0.50+ FIP pitchers. I could look into that…(but pitches thrown shouldn’t matter per inning).

The data as its displayed shows how often the theory was right and wrong. For instance, “30+% Curve Balls/Sliders” led to a bad outcome 63% of the time (which means 37% of the time it turned out okay) and this indexed at 137 (since there’s a high baseline of failure in pitching). When I list the top 20 riskiest pitchers, it’s with the caveat that even the riskiest pitcher could pan out.

Not sure what you mean with the sensitivity and specificity.

I’ll readily admit this isn’t a purely scientific analysis and would love it if someone with a statistical eye built upon this analysis….as long as the bastards reference me when doing it…

I’ve also noticed that there is almost no reason to draft a pitcher in the rounds 4-6 (in 12 team), and I follow your principle of no pitching until the 8th. That said, if Johan falls to you in the 3rd, you’re not going to jump on that and then flip it for awesomeness?

@Rudy Gamble:
Me want info on closers and injuries to schmoes like Putz and Cordero and eventually this season, Marmol.

There are simply too many valuable pitchers available later to waste high picks on pitchers. I know a Santana or Lincecum delivers high value for their ADP; what I don’t know is who’s going to be Santana or Lincecum in 2009. (My best guess: Chad Billingsley.) Plus, a dozen useful pitchers emerge out of nowhere, as per your reference to Cliff Lee, above.

So, in short, this year in Camp Von Vulturewins it’s going to be Scrubs and Freaks and Hope for Good Pick-Ups in the First Few Weeks.*

*Inelegant rhyme.

I was actually thinking of doing a similar analysis because of all the different theories about projecting pitchers that you mentioned, but you did the topic way more justice than I ever could have.

I look very forward to your list of risky pitchers.

Also I agree with the rubber arm comment on Lincecum. I think he’ll be fine this year, although I generally wait a long time to pick pitchers.

I feel like you can make smart SP picks in later rounds a lot easier then doing the same with batters. Plus if you swing and miss on some late round pitchers there are always some Cliff Lee type guys to grab off waivers if you are quick enough (maybe not quite as good as him, but you know what I mean).

With that said, I like Lincecum for next year, but will let someone else pick him and form my pitching staff later on.