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The theory of SAGNOF is simple, don’t pay for saves on draft day.  This theory is, well, in theory, correct in most instances.  Saves and Holds categories are won every year by being a straight waiver wire assassin.  The “fluidness” and volatility of the position makes it such.  Saves and Holds are a success driven organization.  It is basically the frozen concentrated orange juice stat of the MLB.  So fortunate for you, I am sorta of your Billy Ray Valentine.  I agree in principle with the “don’t pay for saves” theory, except I usually implore you to get one of the top-12 guys instead of filling in the holes and playing the guessing game late in the draft.  As I stated in my last post, there are easily 6-7 closer jobs up for grabs this year,  and that doesn’t even include injuries and save speculation types.  That leaves about 12-15 guys who could garner saves or gain the job even before the job is theirs.  Drafting for speculation is fun when you have a Kimbrel or Melancon or Oh in the bank already, but when you are basically relying on luck and happenstance in the save game, it basically means you are taking an early punt or hoping to be better then everyone else at the waiver wire.  Odds aren’t always good depending on waiver rules, because not everyone lives in their mom’s basement has all the time in the world to do waiver wire adds all day once breaking news erupts.  So for the average Joe’s out there, here are five sleeper save guys and five sleepier holds candidates to consider on draft day.

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Saves

Koda Glover – I get that Shawn Kelley is there, and if you look at the usage rates down the stretch last year, he was out-pitched by Blake Treinen who in most theoretical circles would be next in line for saves.  I am digging deeper here and looking for a rough full of diamonds.  He’s being touted by several organizations in and out as a guy who has the goods to be the guy and is not being drafted in any league smaller then 14 teams.

Cam Bedrosian – The inevitable fact of the matter is not if but when will the Street be under construction.  His salary says he is the guy out of spring but it won’t be for long until they should take the detour to Cam.  Cam is returning to health form himself and is no guarantee either, but considering draft spot currently and speculation on draft day, he is a good draft and wait guy who won’t hurt you if his periphs and K-rate are what they used to be.

Michael Lorenzen – Cincinnati is probably one of the worst closing situations right now on paper.  Raisel is getting some love as is Cingrani.  Both weren’t fantastic down the stretch last year, especially Cingrani.  Enter Lorenzen.  Who was converting himself last year in the minor form starter to reliever and came up and did things.  Mid 2 ERA and a BAA in the 2 buck range.  For pitch value and draftability I am steering towards the guy who sounds like a cough drop.

Joe Jimenez -I am going to be so bold and say he makes the team out of Spring and establishes himself with the other high leverage relievers in Detroit very quickly.  Minor league numbers are off the charts and he is easily the top relief prospect going.  The reign of K-Rod will not last the year, plan ahead.

Nate Jones – The trade of D-Rob is coming.  His value as a top reliever with intrigue is there regardless if he is in the cat-bird seat or not.  The White Sox may be sorta punting and save totals may not be there but saves are freaking saves and his name goes a long way right now.

 

Holds

Michael Feliz – One thing Houston has is established relievers of quality.  He is clearly behind Harris and Gregerson for late inning goodness, but what the other guys lack he has and that is a K rate that could push north of 13.

Juan Nicasio – Go check the Pirates depth chart and the effectiveness that each may have.  No you notice anything different, it’s him and Hudson as the RH.  Which means tons of secondary options.  He showed great bullpen poise towards the end of the year when strictly being that kinda guy.

Sammy Solis – The Nationals bullpen is basically going to come down to trickle down economics.  If this guy is closer then this guy will be this and then this and so on.  Then the inevitable trade may happen.  Being the primary lefty in a bullpen stacked with power RH is a great thing for his value this year.

Dan Altavilla – How can a guy with a name like Smokey, not love a guy named “High Town”.  It would be sacreligious to not if you ask me.  The Mariners pen is stacked IMO, Cishek is iffy injury wise but Vincent, Altavilla, Simmons, Scribner form an unheralded group that is mopping up games for a team that could win 90 games.  ERA last year was under a buck and K rate has tons of room for improvement of the 8 it was last year.

Matt Strahm –  I have him here because regardless of what happens he will have value.  he may get some starts and retain his RP moniker.  All good tings as the Rp/SP eligble guys reads like tomorrows viewing schedule at McNamara’s funeral home.  KC is thin behind Soria and Herrera, someone’s gotta pitch in that mix for a team that is usually in the top 10 in save opps.

   
  1. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    what about Storen in Cincy?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Malicious Phenoms: The cincy situation is a stick one and one that needs a Spring to figure out. Between Raisel and Storen, i think i will gamble with an end of the draft Lorenzen and not feel so bad if I whiff.

  2. Brian says:
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    Really good post with some names I have to tuck away!

    Quick question. In a 15 team dynasty league (you can keep players forever) that has both saves and hold as a category, should I trade AJ Pollock for Zach Britton and Kenta Maeda or hold? My gut says to punt saves and just draft a bunch of holds guys with good peripherals late, but I also like both pitchers offered. In this H2H league with daily rosters, you must start 5 pitchers daily, with either a 3 SP / 2RP or 2 SP / 3 RP split. The pitching categories in this league are, bizarrely:

    ERA Earned Run Average
    HD Holds
    INN Innings
    K-BB Strikeouts Minus Walks
    QS Quality Starts
    S Saves
    W-L Wins Minus Losses
    WHIP Walks + Hits / Inning

    As a bonus wrinkle, I could sub in Justin Upton or Evan Longoria for either Britton or Maeda if I wanted. Make the deal or hold? If I make it, which two out of Britton, Maeda, J Upton, and Longoria do I ask for?

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Brian: that theory works if you get 3-4 of the top Hold guys. I mean it’s temptint to turn Pollock into any combo of those 4 guys

  3. Brett says:
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    Smokey,

    I always like to find good closers or holds guys who have SP eligibility. Any recommendations?

    Thanks

    • Grant says:
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      @Brett: Yes to this. Drafting Colome last year helped pave the way to my success. Who is going to be that this year.

      • Smokey

        Smokey says:
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        @Brett: @Grant: the list this year doesn’t have a top sexy name, Corbin, Iglesias, Joe Kelly, Mike Montgomery, David Phelps are best names that come to mind.

        • Boaty says:
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          @Smokey: Nicasio too, since you mention him in your post? Or is he a tier down from the guys you mention here?

  4. Burningbridges247 says:
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    Also love Matt Bush a lot. The guy was absolutely nasty last year. I’m trying to get him everywhere, but especially in a league that counts holds.

  5. Damon says:
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    Smokey-

    Any intrigue to Grant Dayton? He’s an old rookie but I’m considering him in a saves + holds league. Steamer likes him- only 16 projected holds but a sky high K rate and strong ratios. ESPN projects him for a little lower K rate but still strong ratios.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Damon: very intrigued, he has some helium to his name in Holds leagues. Next week’s post will go into more mainstream holds guys and basically a ranking, I ave him ranked fairly aggressive.

  6. True and Correct says:
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    What about Ramos in Philly ? Kintzler with his soft k rate won’t last the year. If Perkins pulls off the “miracle” rec every, what do you think ?
    Hudson/Rivero can take over when Watson collapses.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @True and Correct: Any guy named Edubray is aite with me. Perkins is doing his best to get back, don’t know how his questionable declining stuff before injury will be. Pitts burgh has some good options in Huddy and Rivero is a very sneaky guy this year, was unhittable at time last year.

  7. True and Correct says:
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    Oh yeah, love me some Joe Jimenez.

  8. Nick says:
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    hey

    i’m high on Simmons in Dynasty league,,,

    and will focus on Strahm this season

    Glover would be an intersting name , cause i ‘ll need saves …
    already
    picked up Capps in case :)

    nick

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Nick: I love Simmons, Seattle has a ton of names in their pen right now so I hope he gets meaningful situations.

  9. The Harrow says:
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    what order you got at MIN? year in and year out this team has arguably the least upside of any bullpen, they are still using low K guys as a organizational philosophy, excepting that of chargois (minors thus far). other than pressly at 2nd last, i see this as hard to prognosticate. but i need to in deep as shit leagues for holds and hopefully K rate.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @The Harrow: Its fuzzy at best and depends on Perkins health. I have it Kintzler, Perkins Pressly

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