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The Phils have a game plan, and it looks a something like this:  trade and/or sign washed-out AL East starters.  Worked last year with Jeremy Hellickson, and now they’ve traded for Clay Buchholz.  This is the first trade where I can declaratively state both teams won and I don’t even know who Josh Tobias is, the infielder the Phils sent to the Red Sox.  Yes, I used declaratively.  Watch out, reading comprehension!  Looks like Tobias has some speed, but it doesn’t matter.  The Sox needed Buchholz off their team because they have a set rotation without him, and the NL East is about as good a landing place can be, even if Citizens Flank is slightly offensive-minded, and I don’t just mean the insults that rain down from the stands.  “The only time the Phils ever strung three W’s together is with their website.”  That’s a Philly fan.  “Now lean down so I can puke on you.”  That’s the same Phils fan.  Buchholz looks to be in possession of all his pitches that he had when he had a 3.30 xFIP in 2015.  Of course, those pitches couldn’t have looked more pear-shaped than last year with his 5.32 xFIP.  Honestly, I think he could be anywhere from a 3.50 ERA pitcher to a 4.50 ERA one.  Is he a mixed league starter?  Maybe as a streamer, or if he starts off well, but not out of the gate, as they say in horse racing.  For NL-Only, I’m going to like him as a late-round flyer.  For 2017, I’ll give him the projections of 8-10/4.07/1.31/117 in 145 IP.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in the offseason for 2017 fantasy baseball:

Koji Uehara – Signed a deal with the Cubs.  Solid real world move, which is different than when a housemate cleans dirty dishes that aren’t his.  That’s a solid Real World move.  For 2017, I’ll give Koji the projections of 4-1/2.34/1.01/67, 4 saves in 54 IP.

Dexter Fowler – Signed with the Cards.  JB and I went over the Fowler signing on our last fantasy baseball podcast (clickbait!).  There I said, dot dot dot, hmm, I’m not sure.  Who the hell could understand me with that garbled Jersey accent?  I sound like a male Fran Drescher.  Call me, Man Drescher.  Oh, I know, I likely compared Fowler to Adam Eaton, another offseason signing.  They are similar, but Fowler has more power and speed, but less chance of staying healthy all year, which I’d contend in shallower leagues is a positive, because of the ability to fill in for Fowler off waivers.  If Fowler were to get 600+ ABs, you’d have a solid 4th fantasy outfielder who bordered on a third, but since he won’t, for 2017, I’ll give him 86/15/42/.261/17 in 512 ABs.

Kenley Jansen – Re-signed with the Dodgers.  Fairly straight forward move by the Dodgers.  They needed a closer, so they re-signed one of the best for a fair price.  Yes, we’ve reached the point where $80 million is a fair price.  I apologize for the heart attack I just caused Ted Williams’ frozen head, assuming a frozen head can have a heart attack.  Does it just have an eye twitch?  Has someone sewn shut the frozen head’s neck or is it left open?  Does someone stub a toe, realize they don’t have any ice and wrap the frozen head in a towel and put it on their toe?  I have frozen head questions, y’all!  So, Jansen is a $12 Salad and re-signing in a city that loves salad won’t change anything.  I’ll give him the 2017 projections of 4-1/2.11/0.81/100, 45 saves in 65 IP.

Justin Turner – Re-signed with the Dodgers.  Another great signing by the Dodgers for real baseball, that isn’t that confusing for fantasy.  Grab my hand, I’ll walk you through it.  Metaphorically!  Let go of me!  Turner is exactly what he appears to be, a 22-homer, .270 hitter with a plus or minus five home runs depending on how many fly balls he hit.  Last year, he hit a ton of fly balls and played a full season for the first time.  That was his ceiling, and, while it’s obviously possible, I wouldn’t expect the same.  I.e., that was Justin Turner Overdrive, wouldn’t expect it Bachman, even if he’s takin’ care of business.  For 2017, I’ll give him the projections of 81/24/92/.271/5 in 510 ABs.

Derek Holland – Signed with the White Sox in what can be described as “not even the White Sox make only good moves.”  Meh, Holland was only $6 million so I’m joking, I guess.  That’s really selling it, huh?  ‘Meh, Holland was only $6 million so I’m joking, I guess’ is the sentence equivalent to the shy Trump voter.  “Meh, Hillary sucks, so I guess I’m voting for Trump, but I’m not telling anyone.”  Holland hasn’t called anywhere except Texas home in his career, so better pack up those windmills, you got serve-em-up’s to blow out of a new stadium.  Serve-em-up’s is Holland’s best pitch, by the way.

Jimmy Rollins – Signed with the Giants.  Brian Sabean likes his players like Dracula, long in the tooth.

Daniel Hudson – Signed with the Pirates to back up closer, Tony Watson.  Hudson said, “I wanna bring a new river to Pittsburgh.  The Hudson!” then high-fived a passing janitor.

Welington Castillo – Signed with the Orioles.  Every year, boeuf Welington looks like he could break out, but either teams don’t play him or he gets injured.  Seems like boeuf Welington has gotten a raw deal.  So, does that make him carpaccio?  Hopefully, he doesn’t lose too many at-bats to Caleb Joseph and his Amazing Shittycolor Dreamcoat.  I’ll give Castillo the projections 38/16/59/.239/1 in 390 ABs.

Jhoulys Chacin – Signed by the Padres to a one-year $1.75 million contract.  I wonder if Padres will now go out and find a hitter for under $2 million too.  Say, Mark Trumbo for a week or maybe Yanique Solarte, Yangervis’ brother who works as a drag queen in Key West.

Clayton Richard – Signed a deal with the Padres also for $1.75 million.  I think we get a sense of how much Padres’ management has to spend on a pitcher.

Danny Espinosa – Traded to the Angels.  Going back to the Nats in the trade was, “We don’t care, just take Espinosa.”  Why did Arte Moreno go from spending $200 million every offseason to looking like he’s using EBT?  Is Moreno the Latin Loria?  Did he build up a team to get a lucrative TV contract and then pull the rug out on fans?  Mike Trout is looking like a modern day Ernie Banks with this schmohawk offense.  As for Espinosa, um, yeah, for 2017, I’ll give him 57/19/67/.215/12 in 502 ABs.

Martin Maldonado – Brewers traded Maldonado to the Angels for Jett Bandy.  In baseball inner circles, this trade is being called by the shorthand ‘Jettin Baldy-gotta-go.’

 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Nice write-up!!!

    a. Too funny on Bandy for Maldy!! Can’t believe you gave even 3 lines for that useless move. Btw, is that move:

    1. lateral;
    2. a win-win;
    3. a lose-lose;

    Did someone hoodwink someone in that deal? What am I missing?

    b. Gonna love Buchholz in daily leagues where he goes to San Diego or to a team that Ks a lot. Maybe he finds his mojo again. Who knows?

    c. In Abeche, was supposed to go back yesterday. But as luck would have it, I had no luck.

    1. The normally scheduled flight to Farchana, USA was canceled yesterday. There are 3 flights weekly.
    2. There was no military escort available for a road movement for the 80 mile trip (that takes approximately 3 hours to cover) for yesterday. So, I get to go back today! Lower case yay!
    3. I did have luck to read your article and get your insight on all the moves – especially while holding your hand on Turner’s re-signing. Gonna love Turner too next year.

    d. Otherwise, gearing up for April 2, 2017 and John Rambo quotes. To re-cap, have downloaded all four movies of the Rambo quadrilogy and have downloaded all the English subtitle files for each movie. It will be fun.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • CMUTimmah says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Maybe the Angels needed someone in their clubhouse that can throw haymakers?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks! A. Lateral, for sure B. Yeah, exactly C. In Don Ameche? That sucks, hope you get out today D. Nice!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Grey!

        a. Just made it in! Am going for a real shower with hot water as opposed to the showers I had in Don Ameche – only Puerto Rican. Some days they had water one day they didn’t!

        b. Lateral move, huh? That’s what she said!

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          She never said that! Enjoy!

          • Ante GALIC says:
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            @Grey: Grey!

            a. Find this book if you can. Fantastic.

            https://www.amazon.com/Learning-Become-Subject-Accelerated-Training-ebook/dp/B0161L2WES

            b. Also, highly recommend

            1. War Dogs

            ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2005151/….

            2. Hunt for the Wilderpeople (especially if you’ve never been to New Zealand but really wanted to go)

            ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4698684/….

            3. Swiss Army Man

            ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4034354/….

            4. The Club

            ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4375438/….

            5. The Embrace of the Serpent

            ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4285496/

            6. The Bodyguard (2016, not be confused with The Bodyguard 1992 starring Kevin Costner as Whitney Houston’s bodyguard)

            http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4970038/

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Wow, you have the lesser known flicks here, huh? I heard about the Wilderpeople one… never seen any of them though

              • Ante GALIC says:
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                @Grey: Grey!

                I looked up the top independent movies.

                The Serpent is good, great cinematography and the idea behind the movie is also fantastic.

                The Bodyguard is martial arts, kung fu.

                Cheers,
                Ante

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  You should see Moonlight, best movie of the year

                  • Ante GALIC says:
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                    @Grey: Grey!

                    a. I have it, am waiting for my time with my wife to watch it. Thanks for the tip!

                    b. Have been desperately seeking Manchester by the Sea which is highly recommended everywhere.

                    c. People get scared away (myself included at times) by movies that are in the 5.5 to 6.5 range in IMDB. Sure movies like Dallas Buyers Club, Benjamin Button and The Lincoln Lawyer are always going to generate high scores and they are great movies. But there are movies as good which get poor ratings for whatever stupid reason.

                    Cheers,
                    Ante

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Never heard of Arq either

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      A. Great! Mrs. Ante’s gonna love it… B. Yeah that was solid too… prolly my number two this year C. Yup, apples and oranges

  2. The Red Onion says:
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    Happy holidays Grey!

    Looking for early keeper help.
    12-team, weekly scoring, H2H points keeper league (Auction – $300 Budget).
    Keep up to 8 players per year. I have 7 keeps for sure (in caps), but not sure about the 8th

    Scoring for Batting: 1B/BB/HP= 1 pt., R/RBI =1.25 pts., 2B/SB = 2 pts., 3B = 3 pts., HR = 4 pts.
    Scoring for Pitching: W/SV = 10 pts., BBI/HA/HB = -0.5 pt., ER = -1 pt., INN = 2 pts., K = 1 pt.

    C –
    1B – J. Bell $1/2yr
    2B – I. Kinsler $18/2yr
    3B – N. ARENADO $14/1yr
    SS – X. BOGAERTS $1/1yr
    OF – M. BETTS $28/1yr
    OF – G. POLANCO $6/$1yr
    OF – D. DAHL $1/3yr
    UTIL – A. Jones $16/1yr

    P – J. ARRIETA $20/1yr
    P – C. SALE $23/1yr
    P – W. Davis $37/2yr
    P – J. Odorizzi $19/2yr
    P – S. Oh $10/1yr
    P – D. Robertson $28/2yr
    P –
    (6 bench spots)

    *Contracts reflect 2017 salaries. Players with 1yr are in last year of contract. Contract goes up $5 each year starting in 2018.

    Thanks!

  3. CMUTimmah says:
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    Derek Holland needs a better agent. One that could get him a San Diego deal (or any other homer suppressing park) just to boost his value for a season and allow him to get another big contract. Also, he needs to call Wahl, get an electric shaver, and keep that ferret off his upper lip. Moving to the south side is as bad as pitching in Arlington. Balls fly out of the park at both stadiums with relative ease.

    Jhoulys Chacin clearly has an agent that is smart.
    “Hey, Jhoulys, you’ll be in San Diego long enough to make the league think you’re effective. Hell, they won’t even learn how to correctly spell you’re name before you’re shipped out of town for a Moscow mule mug and a college coed.” – Jhoulys Chacin’s agent

    Jim Rollins is like that last guest at the party that won’t leave. He’s clearly overserved, gotten really slow, and typically trying to pick a fight with the plant. But nobody will just tell him to leave, because, ya know, manners and stuff… PS – I don’t like when players go by familiar names like “Jimmy”. Give me you’re government name, I don’t KNOW you.

    Dan Espinosa, another guy that wants to be your friend so he goes by “Danny”. Well, I’m not you’re friend Dan. Anaheim is becoming Trout surrounded by a bunch of mud sharks. Will they ever build a team around him?

    Wellington Castillo, now there, my friends, is a name. I think 16 HRs is light considering that he goes on major power binges and is a lateral stadium move, but he is going to see better pitching in the AL, so maybe you’re on track.

    Clayton Richard, or as he’s more well known in the adult film community “Clay Tondick”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @CMUTimmah: Backwards to forwards…. Clay Tondick — HA! Maybe on Welington, but Caleb will get a lot of at-bats, whether he should or not…. I thought the Angels had money, I don’t know what they’re doing…. James Rollins to you! Jhoulys is also a Spanish brand of dog leashes… Holland is a doofus

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: the Angels have all that money tied up in Pujols and I think they are still paying part of Hamilton money…I think. I know Arte doesn’t want to pay the tax either. They have so many issues because they gave away all their prospects over the last five years that even if they were to sign a bat and a starter they would still not be close. Which poses the question at what point will people stop buying tickets because they do a good job at that.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Do people still buy angels tix?

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: only the white people

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Big Odio: I believe they are paying 90% of the Hamilton money if not all of it. C.J. Wilson too.

  4. The Great Knoche says:
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    Seems to me the Padres got two 1/2 Hodgepadres for a 1/4 of the price of a regular one. Seems like a win-win.

    Prefer Ostrich Wellington in Puff Pastry.

    Where is Encarnacion going to land? Colorado?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ostrich is too tough if done wrong and very hard to prepare… Stick to beouf, GK

      If Edwin goes to Colorado, he may end up ranked in the top 3 overall

  5. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Hey Grey! Which size do you think wins in these keeper trades…

    $6 Khris or $7 Lamb

    $6 Khris or $19 Frazier

    $6 Khris or $26 Cano

    $6 Khris or $9 Brantley

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Davis, Frazier, Cano, Davis… they’re pretty close

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! Any preference between Frazier/Cano?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Cano, prolly, pretty close

  6. Chicken Shack says:
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    Hey Grey,
    Have you looked at Jose Ramirez for 2017?
    I understand his hard hit rate is elite and he seemed to take a huge step in 2016. Also may be a decent bet for 25 bags?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, haven’t looked yet, but I think he’ll be undervalued

  7. Project Merkin says:
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    Hey Grey! No “Search Terms” post this year for Thanksgiving? What gives? I look forward to that post every year. Crying merkin tears until next November.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sorry Merkin didn’t get around to it this year… someone does keep searching for “Merkin for cheap”

      • Project Merkin says:
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        @Grey: That’s just me. Always looking for deals.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Is this also you “can I wear a merkin to the mall?”

  8. Joe says:
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    Hey grey, I’m in a 12 team dynasty league. We have a 7×7 head to head scoring format.

    I have been offered Chris sale, and I will be giving matt Harvey and starling marte.

    What’s do you think?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Don’t love it

      • Joe says:
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        @Grey: thanks Hey grey, I’m in a 12 team dynasty league. We have a 7×7 head to head scoring format.

        I have been offered Chris sale, and I will be giving matt Harvey and starling marte.

        What’s do you think?

        Thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  9. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I have no idea who Josh Tobias is….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Aside from that poster in your room

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: No that’s a Claydro poster. Never forget #Bullfrog

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, Claydro if the dro was Pedro Astacio

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Sarcasm my dear Albright, sarcasm.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Claydro ain’t Pedro Guerrero throwing batting practice!

    • Big Odio says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: I believe he’s an analrapist

  10. PB&J says:
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    Mr. Grey!

    I know it’s a little early for keeper talk but I can’t resist asking anyway.
    12-team, H2H keeper league
    Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, (4)OF, CI, MI, UTL, (5)SP, (3)RP, (1)P, (6)Bench
    Auction – $280 Budget
    Keep up to 3 players per year. Can keep a player for a max of 3 years.
    Amt $ to keep player: YEAR1: draft price, YEAR2: draft price+$8, YEAR3: draft price+$16

    Categories: Hitting- R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS, K
    Pitching- K, QS, W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K/9

    1B –Rizzo $49 / 2yr
    2B – Schoop $17 / 2yr
    3B –Frazier $34 / 2yr
    SS – Correa $49 / 2yr
    OF – Braun $22 / 2yr
    OF –Polanco $17 / 2yr
    OF – K. Davis $9 / 2yr
    OF – Blackmon $34 / 2yr
    UTIL – Belt $19 / 2yr
    BNCH – Zobrist $14 / 2yr

    P – Shoemaker $8 / 2yr
    P – DeSclafani $9 / 2yr
    P – A. Miller $11 / 2yr
    P – Dyson $8 / 2yr
    P – D. Duffy $8 / 2yr
    P – Darvish $14 / 2yr
    P – Taillon $8 / 2yr

    I’m leaning toward Darvish, K. Davis, and Duffy. If Miller becomes closer, I’d keep him instead if Duffy. What do you think?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not the greatest keepers… darvish, Duffy, Davis… Miller over Duffy like you said

      • PB&J says:
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        @Grey: Thanks, Grey! It’s a tough keeper structure with the steep +$8 price tag.
        I can’t wait for January Grey to come out of hibernation.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          January Grey is so bomb

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Those Sauconys aren’t my joint, but the Reebok are my jam

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: Those Reeboks are smooth. So simple, they look so soft. They just delivered today, haven’t even checked them out yet.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Exactly, you can see the smoothness…

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: Yep, suede is straight buttery.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I can’t handle velvet but I can do suede all day

  11. PK says:
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    Good stuff, as always, Mr. Moustache.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, PK!

  12. Swfcdan says:
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    12 team roto keeper, which of these contracts provides positive value next year:

    J Ross ($3), A Conley ($6), Pomeranz ($6), Tillman ($6), Moore ($5), Cingrani ($6), Hammel ($5), J Guerra ($7).

    Lot of borderline decisions huh.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, pretty borderline…, Ross, Pomeranz, Tillman, Hammel

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Grey: Yeah inherited an awful keeper league team last year and rebuild a great farm but still a sucky major league roster.

        Pretty much those were the guys I’m thinking of keeping though I expected you to say Moore and not Hammel. Moore started dealing once he arrived in San Fran and Hammel endured his usual 2nd half suckiness.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Moore’s got a long history of being pretty meh

          • Swfcdan says:
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            @Grey: But San Fran has magically pitching pixie dust! haha

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha

  13. goodfold2 says:
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    finally catching up with all the posts since early september when i fell behind from football/hockey. 30 man league now with 110 mil budgets (inflation rule change from real life contracts being a bit bigger now than 4-5 years ago), prospect slots about to go up to 35 with coming (way too damn early these drafts come every F’ing year when we could easily move them back a whole month since we have nothing to do for entire march at rate we go, it sucks as mostly ALL prospect stuff isn’t out in january (at least completely), even Ralph’s stuff isn’t close to finished when we start draft). holds and OPS added 6X6. roto but done in real life divisions, and playoffs done that way too, which are h2h.
    C (1) d’arnaud .4 mil (league minimum, ending in 2017)
    CI (2) beltre 10.5 mil (2017)
    MI (2) segura
    OF (3) altherr .4 (19)
    – e.rosario .4 (18)
    util (1) b.drury .4 (19) could count as OF/MI/CI
    SP (3 SP/3 RP/3 P slots, and about 6 starters optimal including bench)
    – sale 12 mil (franchise tagged, pay real life money for this year)
    – quintana
    – z.davies .4 (19)
    – reynaldo lopez .4 (20, barely too many innings has to be up now)
    RP – m.cabrera .4 (20)
    – n.jones 5.348 mil (18)
    minors (all these guys are free till at least 2020, when called up cost league min .4 mil)
    C o’connor TB
    CI – denton STL
    – l.encarnacion PHI
    – kubitza ATL
    – lavalley CIN
    -padlo TB (the 2nd biggest loser of the c-dick trade)
    MI – rondon TB
    – demeritte ATL
    – p. gonzalez COL
    – salcedo ATL
    OF – cozens PHI
    – tocci PHI
    – sierra STL
    -vj reyes ARI
    -d.alvarez BAL
    – whitley TB
    – dj davis TOR
    SP – heredia PIT
    – kilome PHI
    – b.martin TEX
    – a.smith SD
    -v.alcantara DET
    – yarbrough SEA
    RP – sherfy ARI
    – m.ynoa WSOX (has to come up soon, could be set up soonish)
    – staumont KC (could start or be whippy closer type, skyrocketed up prospect rankings in a year though)
    1. should i franchise tag quintana for 7.175 or segura for 2.6? the other would be restricted and i’d either get picks (better picks the more money the bid) if i didn’t match or would match. beltre was matched last year at this time for his 10.5 for 2 years. gotta think segura gets overbid compared to value, but quintana could see bids of 15 or so himself. since a restricted tag could result in somebody bidding multiple years on somebody (like with how i have beltre in the 2nd year of his bid that i matched for 10.5) that’s a main stipulation on which i tag franchise vs restricted. franchise tags last only one year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      1. Segura

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: what about this trade, my nate jones (useful in holds leagues of course) for 4.12 this year and a 2nd from a mid pack team in 2018? i have room with reynaldo lopez needing to be up right now for the 4.12 pick. i’ll ask ralph as well.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @goodfold2: we also have compensatory picks (from the restricted tags that weren’t matched) so 4.12 equals about roughly pick 126th or so overall.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Don’t love it

  14. nightpandas says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Where do you see Harvey, Giolito and Reyes ranked this year? I got offered either of the latter for Harvey in a keep 11.

    Merry Christmas to you, Ted and the Coug…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! You too! They’re all close… I’d take Reyes and Giolito

  15. swaggerjackers says:
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    As an Indians fan, I’m pumped out the E5 signing.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Big move for them

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