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Eff it, I’ll get in the hype circle and mosh around a little.  Bryce Harper wasn’t listed in my top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  He wasn’t listed in my top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I did drop a Bryce Harper fantasy on you for a rookie nookie outlook thingie-ma-whosie-boobie.  He wasn’t included in my (fill-in any other URL link to another page — matter of fact, just click around the site.  Each click brings in 1/18th of a penny revenue!  Look, ma, I just made half a nickel!)  I don’t think we see Bryce Harper to start the year.  I’m not even sure if we see Bryce Harper by June.  I don’t think so.  As said in my Harper post, “I’m guessing (he shows up in the majors) some time after July 1st as the team starts to fade and they need to pull the ol’ “Hey, look at this new shiny toy” trick.  Guess it’s better than the ol’ “Shine a flashlight on a wall” trick, unless you’re trying to get Pedroia to crash into a wall.  Harper was signed by the Nats for $9.9 million (no word on how much of that goes for royalties to The Ultimate Warrior), and they want him to put asses in seats on Strasburg’s off days.”  And that’s me quoting me!  So what’s changed?  For one, the Nats made some offseason moves to better their team (and maybe better the A’s a little too).  For two, I don’t think this changes Harper’s ETA.  The Nats are selling a can of “We Got Promise” corn saying Harper is starting the year with them, but I think they’re still just trying to sell tickets.  If you lived in the Washington, D.C. area, I’d move, but I’d also buy a ticket to an early season home game if I thought Harper may be there in April.  So, if I don’t think we see him until July, what makes Bryce Harper a 2012 fantasy baseball sleeper?

The allure.  It’s like how all those stunods got on board with Hale-Bopp and decided to leave their earth skins back in San Diego.  The promise of a better tomorrow is a lot for even the most grounded individuals to handle.  Remember, no one’s happy.  Fill people with some promise and a bill of unknown goods and they think they’ve discovered a tunnel from Vegas to The Borgata.  In the final rounds, you can either take Yunel Escobar, who might actually be useful to your team, but have no value to anyone else but you, or you can take Bryce Harper.  If Bryce Harper somehow/someway/some-something makes the ball club, everyone will go looney tunes talking in Elmer Fudd voices and howling at the moon.  Then you can capitalize on the biggest craze since the Dutch first set eyes on tulips and sell Harper for a lot more than he’ll be worth.  For that reason alone, I’d take a late round flyer on the “We Got Promise” corn, too.

  1. Commish Cauda says:
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    Nice Jersey reference…The Borgata is the only casino I’ll go to in AC

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Commish Cauda, Thanks! Never actually been there myself…

  2. Commish Cauda says:
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    20-team, H2H-Points Keeper League w/$70 cap

    You can assign $0 contracts to two prospects in each year’s draft. Everyone else gets assigned $1 contracts and salaries go up $1 a year as long as you get 250 ABs or 11 GS for SPs or 30 IP for RPs

    I’m in the position to contend, but I need a SP.

    Trade Manuel Banuelos $0 and Dayan Viciedo $0 for Max Scherzer $3?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Commish Cauda, I’d take Scherzer…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Steve, They should’ve let Bartolo Colon get in with the sharks.

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey, The water displacement would have caused the sea level to rise and coastal settlements to be flooded.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Steve, Yes, and high waves were reported as far away as Indonesia.

  3. Ronkonkoma says:
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    What round would you take him in a keeper league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ronkonkoma, Depends how many teams… Around 70 overall…

      • Ronkonkoma says:
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        @Grey, 10 teams

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Ronkonkoma, And how many are kept?

          • Ronkonkoma says:
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            @Grey, we keep 3.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Ronkonkoma, So like the 3rd to 4th round…

              • Ronkonkoma says:
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                @Grey, thanks!

  4. The Vaporizers says:
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    Good afternoon Grey, had a keeper question for you.

    I’m in my 2nd year in a dynasty league where I took over for a last place team. I have made all sorts of deals and needed a little feedback on my last keeper. Its a 12 team league and most of the owners overvalue hitting when it comes to their keepers. We get to keep 8 major league players (as long as we want), one of which had to be a rookie last season and 8 minor league players Its 7×7 where we also include OPS and hits as well as Holds and Quality Starts.

    The 2nd half of last year I went to all out rebuilding mode.

    My minors are:
    Harper, Trout, Machado, Mesoraco, Kipnis, Belt, Marisnick and Castellanos

    My majors are:
    Braun
    Bruce
    Ike Davis
    Jimmy Rollins
    Michael Young
    Verlander
    Beachy *Rookie from last year

    And then I have room for one more. On my roster I also have Brett Gardner, Miguel Montero, and Daniel Hudson or I can easily acquire Drew Stubbs.

    Who do you keep in this situation? With Gardner or Stubbs I’d be getting some speed obviously and I would have a 2nd OF that will be playing at the start of the season. It will be a couple months before Braun, Trout and probably Harper are playing regularly. But speed can always be found in a draft. Montero is easily the best catcher not being kept. I do have Mesoraco, but he isn’t going to get a full season of AB’s. Then I also have my crush, Daniel Hudson but that would leave me with keeping 3 pitchers which has been proven to not be the best strategy in this league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Vaporizers, Gardner… Tough call though… Could see a case made for Hudson… Your pitching is already solid though…

  5. Eddy says:
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    Want to echo Ronkonkoma’s question about where would you draft him in a keeper.

    12-team H2H OBP, keep five per year. They are assigned to the round you drafted them in, inflating three rounds per year for a maximum of three years kept.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy, 6th round…

  6. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    ***** ATTENTION ALL RAZZHANDS *****

    I’ve set up a web-based system to help you stick to Grey’s Pitcher Pairings while drafting. I would appreciate it greatly if as many of you as possible could jump on and test it out (at least one run through). Just want to make sure I don’t have any dead links, bugs, or mistakes in logic. Thank you in advance for any feedback you can offer. Here is the link:

    http://www.kevinkwalter.com/_fbb/pitcher_pairings_1.html

    • chata says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus,

      tried this twice .

      1st time : stras was my 1st pick .
      at the end of the exercise , i was given the option of 6 crappy pitchers ,
      for my 6th starter .

      2nd time : took kershaw 1st and strasburg 2nd .
      still was lead to the same crappy 5th and 6th round starters .

      highly likely that i’m not going to draft a 6th SP , particularly a crappy one … might not even draft a 5th one .

      no bugs in the link , though .

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @chata, Thanks for running through it.

        I didn’t write the drafting strategy, I’m just putting together a web-tool that helps to follow Grey’s “Pitcher Pairings” more easily.

    • mic says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, works good…

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @mic, Thanks for the feedback.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Just played around with it for a bit, looks great! Send me the file when you get a chance. Thanks!

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Grey, I’d like to get Rudy’s Point Shares values in there before I ship it off. Cool?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Awesomus Maximus, Yeah, that works for me.

          • Awesomus Maximus

            Awesomus Maximus says:
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            @Grey, I’m also finishing up work on my Draft Bible. It’s a Numbers (Mac version of Excel) document with the following setup:

            Sheet 1 – Top 300 Players with tick boxes
            Sheet 2 – batters separated by position
            Sheet 3 – possible pitcher pairings, flowchart style

            The way it works is that you follow the draft on Sheet 1, ticking off players as they are drafted. When you tick someone off on Sheet 1, their name is automatically removed from Sheet 2/Sheet 3. So you can quickly jump and look at who’s left by position, or who’s left in your Pitcher Pairing route.

            If you have Numbers for iPad (which I do), I think it will be the ultimate draft companion. I will have the draft room going on my laptop, and that spreadsheet running on my iPad. I don’t know how many of your readers have an iPad and Numbers for it, but I can give you that spreadsheet when I’m done with it, as well, so you can offer that for download to anyone who can use it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Awesomus Maximus, Sweet! Thanks so much!

            • Steve says:
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              @Awesomus Maximus, Hmmm. Have an iPad. Don’t have Numbers.

              Yet…

              • Awesomus Maximus

                Awesomus Maximus says:
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                @Steve, $10… not a huge investment, not a drop in the bucket either. I’ve found it to be pretty useful outside of fantasy baseball too, which is how I justified the expense.

              • Awesomus Maximus

                Awesomus Maximus says:
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                @Steve, Oh, and I’ll post some screenshots of it doing its thing so you can have a better idea whether or not you want to get Numbers and be able to use it.

                • Steve says:
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                  @Awesomus Maximus, Thanks! I think he most problematic thing will be trying to explain to my wife and kids why I need the MacBook AND the iPad for that three hours when I’m also going to be completely ignoring them, not to mention be unavailable for any domestic duties.

                  • Awesomus Maximus

                    Awesomus Maximus says:
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                    @Steve, Heheh… yeah, can’t help you with that one. Do you have Numbers for your MacBook? If so, I can send you my work-in-progress spreadsheet for you to play around with.

    • SwaggerJackers says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, This confuses me. I can take Latos in the first round and he shows up again in the second. Shouldn’t a pitcher no longer be an option once you pick them?

      • Steve says:
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        @SwaggerJackers, Can’t you just keep track of the guys you pick? The pairings are more about tiers than individual pitchers in any case.

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @SwaggerJackers, This is not a fancy program. It simply looks at what group you took your pick from, and then tells you what group(s) your next pick should be from, and so on. So yeah, when you see a tier, you will see everyone in that tier… including guys you may have already drafted.

    • Steve says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, Just like a bought one. Good job young fella.

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Steve, Thank you, sir.

    • Skeptic says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, I think the v2 should include Rudy’s point share w/a way to select a higher tiered player e.g. Hamels and madbum. Being able to compare quant v Jedi would be slick and quite the dynamic in-draft tool.

      Nice tool as is though!

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Skeptic, Thank you. I think that would kind of defeat the purpose of following Grey’s Pitcher Pairings… you’d be taking too much pitching at the top. Know what I mean?

  7. Raj says:
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    Contrary to popular opinion, I think Trout will make an impact in the bigs as well this season…and as early as June. I just don’t see all of those guys (1) staying healthy and (2) producing: Morales, Hunter, Abreu, Bourjos, Wells. It wouldn’t surprise me if Abreu is shipped before the end of spring training.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Raj, Seems pretty doubtful that we see him that early…

  8. chata says:
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    @ Grey :

    this post reminds me of a stock-broker that wanted me as his client .
    gave him so little business , he ended up selling shorts .

    • chata says:
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      @chata,

      author ! author !!

  9. Wilsonian says:
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    8 Team keeper. I’m picking 8th and 9th. Keeping Kemp, Tulo, Fielder, Longo, JUpton. Hypothetically speaking (as I know it depends on what is there), would you take two SPs with your first two picks? Or what would you do there? Just trying to figure out some strategery.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wilsonian, An SP and best available SP, 2nd or OF…

      • Wilsonian says:
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        @Grey, thanks! Things may change a little if I can trade for some draft picks, but I definitely appreciate the advice. Last year I took Verlander and Lincecum there, and it worked out for me. But I wasn’t married to the idea of doing it again.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Wilsonian, Yeah, one big pitcher is good then it’s dealer’s choice…

  10. Tony says:
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    Hey guys RCL #11 still has two spots open, my leagues been running for 3 years now, there’s a $50 buy in, if you’re interested email me at youngy_03@yahoo.com

    I’ll get an invite out to you ASAP.

  11. Pat says:
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    Hey Grey,
    just did my first mock draft of the year, and boy does it show. I am not a fan of this team at all, but let me know what you think.
    10 team head to head standard, 5th pick:
    C- Arencibia (18)
    1B- Tex (3)
    2B- Kinsler (2)
    SS- Tulo (1)
    3B- Youk (7)
    OF- Matt Holliday (5)
    OF- Bruce (6)
    OF- Berkman (9)
    Util- Billy Butler (13)
    Util- Lind (16)

    SP- Greinke (4)
    SP- Shields (8)
    SP- Matt Moore (10)
    SP- Beachy (11)
    RP- Farnsworth (20)
    RP- Venters (22)
    RP- Romo (23)
    P- Luebke (12)
    P- Anibal Sanchez (14)
    P- Morrow (15)
    P- Jamie Garcia (17)
    Bench- Doug Fister (19), Bud Norris (21)

    • Tony says:
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      @Pat, if everyone stays healthy STELLAR, haha, but that’s what we’re worried about, your entire infield is an injury risk. Maybe taking 1 or 2 of those guys and then grabbing someone safer would have been best.

      • Pat says:
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        @Tony, yeah i didn’t like how my first few rounds came out. It seemed like the best players there in each round were in a spot I had covered already lol

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Pat, I agree with Tony.

  12. Elijah says:
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    Wow. That post was almost literary.

  13. mic says:
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    yo grey, just a small suggestion: if you haven’t done your 5 questions for the San Francisco Giants you should try to link up with Grant Brisbee from McCovey Chronicles… He has that Funny/Witty/Smart steeze similar to you and dude from the Orange County Register… Anyhoots, not trying to tell you how to run your business, just throwing something out there…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @mic, Haven’t posted it yet, but I’ve already asked a different Giants blog to answer.

  14. Pig Charmer says:
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    Grey,

    More 2012 AB’s: Harper or Trout?

  15. Matt Moore OR Madison Bumgarner FOR DYNASTY KEEPER LEAGUE

  16. Skeptic says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus, Understood but I was suggesting it on purpose: to compare quant to gut (which is greys Jedi in this case). Just like grey tiers players, quant implies standard deviations which are tiers. Ultimately what I’m suggesting is a way to make a dynamic draft tool that would allow managers a bit more flexibility in real draft when reality haPpens. Think of it this way: is there another way to build a pitching staff when random pitching runs happen because of people’s keepers for example?

    Your tool works perfectly well to adhere to greys pitching strategy. I’m suggesting a way to allow managers more options.

  17. Heffernan says:
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    I’m in a 12 team keeper where I can keep 6. I need to weed this out and I’m floundering back and forth on my strategy.

    Pujols $53
    Adrian Gonzalez $46
    Pedroia $34
    Halladay $40
    Beachy $5
    Luebke $5
    Trout $7
    Harper $7
    Dee Gordon $5
    Matt Moore $1

    Matt Moore is a no-brainer. I was going to keep Trout and Harper as well. But like I said, I just can’t decide what route makes the most sense. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

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