Borderline Starters, Last Week of Fantasy Baseball
September 28, 2009
Category: fantasy baseball strategy
If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season. In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit. For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league. Were they all gems? Aw, heck no. If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw. Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings. Yeah, that’s pretty good. Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:
Monday, September 28th
Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday. Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.
Tuesday, September 29th
Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers. Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.
Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.
Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them. He did both. This week, more of the same.
Wednesday, September 30th
Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers. 30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed. Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.
Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again. Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.
Thursday, October 1st
Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues. Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.
Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category. Deep leagues only.
Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.
Friday, October 2nd
Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.
Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.
Saturday, October 3rd
Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista. (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On. And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)
Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.
Sunday, October 4th
Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.
Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation. If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson. So, game time decision.
Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.
Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.
September 28th, 2009 at 11:31 am
would you go with wade davis over duensing? i need Ks and don’t fear BAL as much as i did a month ago
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@dodgerdog: Sure, I could see that if you need Ks.
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Thanks Grey!
I would have added Wade Davis vs BAL, John Lannan vs NYM (he’s done well against them in most of his starts this year – including his last 3 starts against them), and Wade LeBlanc vs SF (at PETCO plus he did well against them last time out).
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
If think there needs to be a Razzball term for when a relief pitcher is brought into a game during a non-save situation, proceeds to give up runs thereby creating a save situation, then gets the save. A la Matt Thornton last night. Keep in mind the sure ERA and WHIP bump while getting the Save.
Thoughts?
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
@kwak: He came into the game during the 8th when it was a save situation. There is no such thing as creating a save situation for yourself.
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@GTS: In the right situation, I’d add those guys too. Depends how much risk you want to take.
@kwak: He was brought into a game that was a save situation in the 8th then gave up runs in the ninth.
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Can someone call the Dodgers and remind them they have a game tomorrow? They forgot to show up today. Got spanked by LaRoche and the Dread Pirate (and the 15 bucks fans in attendance) 11-1.
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Per mlb.com, Torre announced that Padilla will not start this week.
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@Razzin: Ha!
@Colotov Mocktease: Probably for the best.
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I got burnt today by the Pirates Dodgers game, however I am winning almost all pitching catagories in the h2h finals. not counting todays stats:
My pitching: 6-4 5 saves, 67 K 1 hold, 4.43 era 1.34 whip
opponents: 3-5 4 saves, 54 K 0 hold, 8.58 era 1.85 whip
I have Annibal Sanchez going later today. My only relievers going today are Jepsen and Valverde.I’m just wondering with 6 days to go what would be the safer strategy for me as far as pitching catagories (going into today im winning 17-5).
Should I be starting my starters, or sit them and ride my rp to the finish line? Is there an optimal strategy in this situation?
My rotation looks like this, and this is a holds league:
SP:Kuroda,Sanchez,Duensing,Hanson,Zito,Haren,Vazquez,Arroyo,Rowland-Smith
RP:Jepsen,Valverde,Affeldt,Hawksworth,Reyes
What should i be doing in regards to sit/start in regards sp vs rp? Or is my sp rotation strong enough that i should be starting them all no matter what this week?
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
@grey: Rank these iffy SP’s: D.Davis @ SF, Pelfrey @ WAS, Lannan VS NYM, Cl.Richard vs LAD, Gorzelanny vs PIT, Correia vs. SF, and Pedro vs HOU.
I say Lannan, Correia, Gorz, Pedro, Richard, Davis, Pelfrey, but my co-owner disagrees.
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@Jay: I’d just pick and choose starters. I’d bench Zito and Kuroda’s next start, unless you start to need to take the risk because of an iffy start or two from your other guys.
@Big Mike: Correia, Richard, Pedro, Lannan, Gorz, Pelfrey….
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September 28th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Is it early enough in the week that I should be able to recover from Kuroda’s meltdown today with who I have? Or should I be using the Kuroda and Zito spots to spot start people for the rest of the week just incase or would another RP and a spot starting spot be better?
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@Jay: No, they’re okay to risk a start on if you need it. Just sit on them unless you need them.
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September 28th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
@Grey: Kuroda will get another start. Will Tim Hudson (at home vs. Marlins Tuesday)? And streamables in Wed starts (and thereafter) are done for the year … right?
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@Big Mike: Streamables from Wednesday on are done. Hudson will get a start if it matters for the playoffs.
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September 28th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Ah – so many options and only one start left.
Only have Sanchez and the Wolfman (sounds like a great name for a TV show – Grey, over to you) left on my roster as starters.
Sanchez @ Petco is the most appealing, no?
Not that it’s going to make a damn bit of difference.
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@Steve: Sanchez it is. I like that show. It’s Teen Wolf meets Chico and the Man.
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September 28th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
@Grey: Ah, Chico and the Man. I still remember that one.
Declines don’t come much sadder than Freddie Prinze’s.
You can tell that we’re getting close to the off-season
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September 28th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I have 3 guys tonight, 2 of whom are facing each other (Blackburn vs. Porcello) in addition to Niemann.
Of the 3 which should I start? I’m hesitant to start the two against each other, and am pretty set on starting Niemann @ Baltimore.
Does Porcello or Blackburn have a better chance of picking up a Win?
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@Steve: I respect his senior’s decline more than junior’s.
@Rory: I like Porcello better than Blackburn, hence the above, but none are highly recommended. Niemann probably will be fine vs. Baltimore, but I wouldn’t start him.
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September 28th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
@Grey: Quite so.
I hadn’t even factored Jr into my observation.
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September 28th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Hi Grey, I still have an outside chance in my league, but need Wins badly. Which starter(or starters) should I pick up for tommorow 9/29 start;
Pelfrey (NYM) @ WAS (Martin)
Duensing (MIN) @ DET (Verlander)
Marquis (Col) @ MIL (Parra)
and which for Wednesday 9/30;…
Lannan (WAS) vs. NYM (Redding)
Penny (SF) vs. ARI (Mulvey)
Richard (SD) vs. LAD (Garland)
thanks!
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@Furtah: Pelfrey and Richard
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September 28th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, Aaron Hill: the sleeper gift that just keeps on giving [in honor of his 35th(!!!) homer].
After reading this, I’m wary of him for next year though: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-of-the-hill/
Any thoughts, Grey?
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September 28th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
I mean I know you labeled him a keeper, but seems he risks some over-valuation for next year
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September 28th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Josh Beckett was slated to start tonight according to YAHOO, and didn’t? whats up with that, anyone know… i dont wanna sift around…. thanks
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September 28th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
nvmind…. i see it says he had back spasms now! nice timing beckett! take some damn meds!
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@penpen: Eh, I’ve seen that before. I’m not going to say he’ll hit 35 again, but you’d take 25 homers and like it (maybe not like it quite as much).
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@winnawinnachickendinna: Back issue, might not start again this year.
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September 28th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Where is the razzpuck?
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@Billy: If I had some dedicated friends/Razzball readers that wanted to handle then I’d consider it, but I don’t know hockey.
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September 28th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I only have 5 moves left! Need to make the most of them.
Can you rank these starts (standard cats w/ QS):
Duensing vs Det
Davis @ SF
Correia vs SF
LeBlanc vs Pit
Bailey vs PIT
Cahill vs LAA
And can you rank these for the rest of the week (standard cats w/ OBP – Don’t need steals):
Carlos Guillen, Michael Young, Jay Bruce, Franklin Gutiérrez
Thanks!!!
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@struggler: Correia, Bailey, Duensing, LeBlanc, Cahill…
Guillen, The Big FraGu, Young…
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September 28th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
Aubrey? More like Audrey today.
And he’s stranded more men than a budget airline.
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September 28th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Re: Asdrubal Cabrera having a “decent” year, he currently ranks as the #8 SS on ESPN’s Player Rater…and that is with missing three or four weeks with a dislocated shoulder.
Asdrubal was sent to AAA in mid-2008 because he stunk. When he came back, he hit .320/.398/.464 and he is hitting .308/.361/.439 in 2009.
So for the last 1.5 years, he’s been “OPSing” .830 or so with a .300+ AVG. The 17 steals this season are a big jump over the 6 he posted in 2008, but he stole 25 bases in 2007, so the speed is there.
He turns 24 in November and has already given us AVG, speed and the ability to score runs and drive them in.
With a full season of at bats, I can see him going .290, 6 HR, 90 runs, 70 RBI, 15-20 SB. Not breathtaking, but not too shabby from your SS.
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@Steve: Ha!
@Neil: Yeah, not bad, not great. Thanks for expanding on decent.
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September 28th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Last ? for the night: Andrus, Stubbs, Young? I dont like Andrus batting 9th. I do like Young hitting a double in his first AB back and hitting 2nd…
I lied – What do you do in the off season?
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September 28th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
rust never sleeps
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@struggler: Andrus has four steals in the last week, Young may get RBIs, Runs and average, Stubbs has speed, but could be awful on average.
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September 28th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
@Grey: Still liking Patterson over Andrus?
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September 28th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
wanna congratulate ian kinsler? i never got the chance to say it:
30/30 WOOO
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September 28th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Does anyone know what happened to Edwin? According to Yahoo, he was replaced by Kevin Millar of all people to play 3B.
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September 28th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Looks like Michael Brantley is losing PT to Crowe. Who should I dump him for (it’s for my UTIL spot, and I need good stats in every category):
Delmon Young, MLP, Daric Barton
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September 28th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
What do you think about Joba vs. the Royals on weds? SHould be a no pressure outing having clinched and all…
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@Steve: Patetrson has three steals in the last four days, seems fine either way.
@DrEasy: Think it was an injury, not sure how bad though.
@DrEasy: Go with Young.
@Jackie: A no pressure outing when they might not play their stars. I wouldn’t start him, but he might be fine.
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September 28th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
@Grey: Hanging in til the bitter end. Don’t want to disrespect the game
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@Steve: Definitely. Any word in New Zealand what happened to Edwin Encarnacion? BTW, what’s up with WordPress underlining Zealand as if it’s spelled wrong? Actually, it underlines WordPress too so I guess there’s that.
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September 28th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
Here’s an interesting one: I am in holds league, and here’s my situation in the saves and the holds categories:
I have the following relievers:
- Hughes, Mike Gonzalez, Dan Meyer, Franklin Morales, to help me with the holds. I hate Morales right now, but his SP eligibility is precious to me, and besides: HAGNOF!
- Hoffman, Jim Johnson, Juan Gutierrez, MacDougal to help with the saves.
I can’t catch the guy ahead of me in saves. The guy behind me has only three fewer saves, but only two closers: Fuentes and Soria. So I feel pretty safe there.
I can’t be caught in holds, but the two guys ahead of me have only 2 and 4 more holds than me respectively.
I want to drop MacDougal or Jim Johnson and pick up Bruney. Girardi wants to play Bruney at least three times before the end of the season. MacDougal or Johnson don’t get that many saves anyway, and they’re hurting my ratios too. And I can’t drop anybody else.
Does this make any sense? If so, which one should I let go: MacDougal or Johnson (sounds like a case of Tomato- Tomahto to me)? I’m tending toward dropping MacDougal.
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September 28th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
@Grey: No word on EE. The underlining is there to emphasise our global importance.
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September 28th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
@Grey:
did you fix abreu for me ?? !
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September 28th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
For tomorrow, who do you like for some rbi and/or hr potential? Suzuki, Byrd, Davis? I’m thinking Byrd since I don’t like the Oak matchup against F-Her.
Oh and for some reason, my opponent dropped Mini Donkey. Don’t really know why, but would you consider him a must pickup at the moment? He can help me in the rbi/hr cats, but my opponent and I are close in avg, with my leading. Worth it? Thanks Grey.
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September 28th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
@DrEasy: Well, I decided to go for it, (so no worries if you skipped that uber-long post of mine!), hopefully Bruney will give me the holds I need.
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September 28th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
@Grey:
2nd week of h2h playoffs for the title (7×7) .
tomorrow i sit upton @ utility and replace him with butler , because i’m trying to make a move on the obp category . …and butler vs burnett is only less sucky than upton vs jonathon o .
worse yet , i sit reynolds and replace him with NOBODY .
this is where fantasy vs reality is most distinct .
and it feels pretty shitty .
truth be told , tommorow morning i may wake up and sit butler , as well ….. since i have fairly comfortable margins in all other offensive categories , except sb , (where my lead is only 4-2) and he is only 2 for 7 lifetime vs a.j.
thoughts ??
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@DrEasy: That’s cool, should work for you.
@cake_eater: Pick up Reynolds and Byrd.
@big o: Sounds fine to play Butler.
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September 29th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Who do I pick up for wednesday from the wire?
Robinson Tejada,Ricky Nolasco,Pedro Martinez,Jon Garland,Carl Pavano,Tim Wakefield,Jason Hammel,John Smoltz,Brad Penny,Tim Redding,Clayton Richards
of my current SP who do I need to sit and start for the rest of the week?
SP:Vazquez,Arroyo,Brian Duensing,Kuroda,Anibal Sanchez,Tommy Hanson,Barry Zito,Dan Haren,Ryan Rowland-Smith
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@Jay: I’m not sure what you need or don’t need. In some instances, I’d pick everyone there but Redding, Hammel and Wakefield.
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September 29th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
not counting today the h2h stats for the week pitching wise are:
me: 6-6 (5 saves) 74 K’s 1 hold, 4.58 era, 1.43 whip
them: 3-5 (4 saves) 54 K’s 0 hold, 8.58 era, 1.85 whip
I have Duensing going today and they have no sp.
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@Jay: Seems like you’re going to win without grabbing random starters. I’d hold tight for now. Maybe press with the starters on Thursday or Friday, depending on where you stand at that point.
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September 29th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Well i’m more than likely about to pick up a loss today which ties us, and my whip obviously will go up.Of course thats not counting my rp’s today. So its going to be close right now since this is a h2h league.
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@Jay: Then I’d grab Richard and lose Sanchez.
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September 29th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
I mean the loss ties us in the losses catagory not over all im winning 15 – 6 but most of my team has been struggling in all catagories so far week 26.
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September 30th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
What sp should I pick up for thursday?
I have Hanson vs Was and Haren @ SF
on the wire – Manny Parra,Aaron Cook,Brett Anderson,Doug Fister,Kip Wells,Chris Waters
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@Jay: I’d go with just Haren and Hanson.
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October 1st, 2009 at 8:32 am
I’m trying to blow my wad tomorrow and bust through the innings cap. I’ve got Ubaldo @ LA and Blanton v. Florida. At this point, I’m very unlikely to gain or lose any points in ERA, WHIP, or K/BB, so it’s just about picking up as many Ws, Ks, and QSs as possible. If I’ve got three spots available, which of the following look the best?
Lowe v. WAS
Snell @ TEX
McCarthy @ SEA
Gonzalez v. LAA
Gorzelanny v. ARI
Buckner @ CHC
I’m leaning towards Lowe and Gonzalez, but then I can’t decide among the rest.
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@Dingo: McCarthy, Lowe, Gorze…
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October 1st, 2009 at 9:48 am
I’ll try to make this simple.
I can either start any 2 of these pitchers on Fri/Sat (Saunders @ Oak, Gorzelany vs. Ari, LeBlanc @ SF or Rowland Smith vs. Tex) – then pitch any combination of Felix, Verlander (probably wont start), Marquis, Martin, Figueroa on my final day Sunday… Or I can pitch both Gorzelany and Saunders on Friday and LeBlanc and Rowland Smith (and maybe Richmond, Laffey, etc.) on Saturday as my last day. I don’t want to miss out on Felixs’ start, but none of the other Sunday options are better than LeBlanc, Rowland, Gorz or Saunders).
Please help! I need Wins and WHIP.
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@Furtah: I’d go with the pitching LeBlanc and R-Smith on Friday option.
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October 1st, 2009 at 10:06 am
My team has gone from having a 17-4 lead on Monday, to an 11-11 tie today.Large part to my normally lights out pitching being anything but decent, and my batters not being used everyday and not hitting for anything when they do.
Who do I pick up as spot starters for Friday ,because thanks to my teams inconsistancies my guarantee win is now slipping away?
Dice-K,David Price,John Maine,Joe Saunders,Ian Snell,Joe Blanton,Kevin Correia,Brandon McCarthy,Tom Gorzelanny
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@Jay: Correia
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October 2nd, 2009 at 10:00 am
Saturday spot starters? Or since I have a decent chance at wins do i need to be sitting my starters in hopes of my opponent having losses?
me: 7-9 (5 saves) 112 K’s 1 hold 4.49 era 1.39 whip
them: 4-9 (5 saves) 77 K’s 0 holds 7.56 era 1.73 whip
I have: Rowland-Smith@Texas
They have: Jorge De La Rosa@LAD
on the wire: Cueto,Pettite,Tommy Hunter,Zach Duke,Nick Blackburn,Kyle Lohse,Freddy Garcia,Wade LeBlanc,Scott Richmond
who do i need to go to on the wire for saves this weekend? Nunez,Morales,Madson,Wood,Balfour,Lyon,Donnley,Jim Johnson,Capps
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@Jay: Madson, Capps and Johnson for saves. For starters, I’d own Cueto and LeBlanc. And hope the Dodgers clinch so dlR isn’t pushed. Rowland-Smith is home, not at Texas and is a decent spot start.
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October 2nd, 2009 at 11:23 am
What rp do I need to drop? i got my 1 hold, and doesn’t look like he will get one, so I don’t necessarly need some of the rp any more since holds may be locked.
Valverde,Frasor,Affeldt,Hawksworth,Calero,Gutierrez,Reyes,Donnelly
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@Jay: I’d drop Hawksworth, Calero and Reyes.
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October 2nd, 2009 at 11:39 am
I have 3 roster spots open now is that alright since its the final weekend and I plan on using my sp spots for the spot starters on sunday, or should i get people off the wire just incase?
Also as far as the RP goes who do i sit – Valverde,Frasor,Gutierrez,Capps,Johnson,Donelly,Madson
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@Jay: Yeah, I’d get them off the wire before someone gets them before you. I’d sit Donnelly, but I have no idea how many you have to sit.
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October 2nd, 2009 at 11:47 am
I already picked up all of them, had starters that were done so i used those spots. I still some how have 3 extra roster spots after.
i have 2 SP spots, 2 RP spots, and 4 p spots then bench. So if i have 3 starters like I do for tomorrow I have 5 spost to use for RP.
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@Jay: I’d sit Frasor and Donnelly then.
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October 3rd, 2009 at 7:24 am
since yet again for the 6th straight day, everyone on my team has failed to get the job done. do i need to be considering sitting my sp and hoping my opponents rosey shining week slows down?
right now its
Me: 7-10 (5 saves) 119 K’s 1 Hold 4.40 era, 1.35 whip
Other: 5-9 (5 saves) 87 K’s 0 holds 7.15 era, 1.68 whip
Today I have Rowland-Smith vs Texas, and Cueto vs Pit do I sit either? They have De La Rosa vs the Dodgers.With the situation what it is do I sit either and hope La Rosa gets lit up by the dodgers like Jimmenez should have last night?
My bats are underperforming and not getting at bats on top of that, and my pitchers couldnt win if their life depended on it this week, which is how my 17-4 lead turned into 11-11.
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