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SAGNOF essentially means don’t pay for saves or steals.  Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face, i.e., they can be found for cheap.  They are in abundance later in drafts and on waivers.  For this post, let’s focus on steals.  Everth Cabrera didn’t play a game in the majors until May 17th and gave you 44 steals, the 3rd most steals last year.  Rajai Davis came in 2nd in steals with 46.  He was drafted in the last rounds and found on waivers in many leagues.  Coming in first for steals last year was Mike Trout, he might’ve been drafted in the end rounds, but he wasn’t held onto in most mixed leagues.  Coming in 5th with 40 steals was Ben Revere, then Coco Crisp, Juan Pierre, Carlos Gomez, Alcides Escobar… In the top 11, Victorino, Bourn and Reyes were the only ones that you needed to pay for at your draft.  If you’re paying for steals, you’re not seeing something that is as plain as the hair growing from your nose mole.  Steals are cheap and all over waivers.  If you carry a SAGNOF’er too long in your outfield, your power will start to pay the price, unless that SAGNOF’er is more than just steals with average, power and counting stats.  Whenever I can get SAGNOF at middle infield, I am delighted like a menopausal mother at a Nancy Meyers movie.  “I wish to wear a floppy hat and watch a Diane Keaton marathon.  Won’t you join me, Margaret?  I’ll order in for scones.”  That’s your mom talking to her BFF.  So we’ve established steals are cheap, and you want them in the middle infield.  Enter stage “a’ight” Billy Hamilton.  So what can we expect of Billy Hamilton for 2013 fantasy baseball?

Billy Hamilton stole 155 bases last year between High-A and Double-A in 132 games and 192 attempts.  Take a second to digest that.  In that second you took to digest, Hamilton just stole another base.  And another.  I think 192 attempts is even more unfathomable than the 155 steals.  He was only on base 247 times!  And he just stole another base.  You gotta figure there was a few times someone was on base in front of him, right?  And he just stole another base.  If he got 200 hits in the majors in one season, he’d steal 500 bases in a season and pass Lou Brock’s old record of 938 steals before the All-Star Break in his 2nd season.  That’s, of course, assuming he didn’t walk once.  And he just stole another base.  If he walked, he’d steal 15,000 steals in one season.  I’m not exaggerating.  I’m underestimating his speed.  And he just stole another base.  He could steal 27,000 times in a year with a hundred walks.  Okay, that’s an exaggeration.  He could probably only steal 25,500 bases a year.  But around there is still pretty good.  And he just stole another base.  The bad news, Hamilton will more than likely lose his shortstop eligibility.  The Reds are playing him in center in the Arizona Fall League — where he just stole another base — and the Reds are planning on Hamilton taking over for Stubbs, because they’re sick of Drew’s .213 average.  And he just stole another base.  I imagine Hamilton will be in the majors in June and playing everyday center just after the All-Star Break.  In a full season of ABs, he could steal 70 bases, but more than likely his line will be 35/0/15/.260/35 in 300 ABs.  And he just stole another base.  And another.

28 Responses

  1. chunk says:
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    Speaking of Billy’s, as in, more than one Billy, Can I go off topic and ask about your take on Butler next year? I’d like to target him in drafts and was wondering a) around where youd take him and b) where you think he’ll go (ADPish). Prince at first with Butler at CI was nice this year, could be better next year.

    If you have something to say about him comin up at some point then you can just respond by resting your head on the keys for 3 seconds and hitting enter.

    Thanks!

    “Baseball comes and goes, kid. But Razzball never dies.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @chunk, Ha, nice quote… I’ll definitely have something to say in the rankings about Butler when we get there, but don’t think he’s gonna have a post dedicated to him… I’d probably take him around 4th to 5th round, and that’s where I’ll take him… No reason to think he’s a fluke at this point…

  2. JT says:
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    Grey, with Billy (Tom Hanks in Big voice) moving to OF, Cozart is safe at SS for now. I’m trying to resist the urge to own him…had too many Reds last year. By the way, I miss my username (wakeupgomer), even though I’m mainly a lurker. Tried getting my password reset but nothing yet.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You gotta keep trying, wakeupgomer is worth fighting for (REO Speedwagon voice)… I might like Cozart again next year.. It’s a sickness!

  3. royce! says:
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    In 2002, Everth Cabrera had 44 steals in 449 PA, while sporting an average under .250 and a .336 OBP. Everth has historically shown good plate discipline (over 10% walk rate) in the minors. Hamilton has recorded better walk rates in the minors and much, much better SB numbers. I know he’ll have to adjust to major league pitching (and pitchers that are likely to be more used to paying attention to baserunners), but 35 SB in 300 AB seems on the lower side of what we can expect from him. In 2011, he had a steal every 6 or so AB, and he increased that to 1 in every 4 in 2012. I don’t think he’ll steal 75 in 300 AB (which would be 1 every 4 AB), but I also don’t think it will increase all the way to 1 in every 10 AB. Let’s say it’s 1 in every 7, that would yield 42. So I’m predicting 40-45. Unless he somehow cracks the top 100 in people’s rankings, I’m all over that shizz.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I hear ya, but a guy without a starting job and someone who’s never played in the majors, I was a little more conservative… He could easily steal 60+ next year…

  4. beardcrabs says:
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    i wish i had your writing talent… and he just stole another…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, thanks!

  5. Eddy says:
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    Hola Grey!

    Hope all is well. I’ve been reading every post in the off-season but haven’t had a chance to drop by. BUt I got some goodies!

    Report from Angels beat swirling that Haren may be traded to Cubs for Marmol. My first thought: WTF? Then I drooled a little bit because I thought of his Ks in the NL.

    But if true, Epstein nailed DiPoto there. Thee has to be some secret DiPoto is hiding, like Haren lost an arm in the off-season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think Haren may be lost from what we used to see but to the NL Central can’t hurt… Marmol’s more trouble than he’s worth so that’s a plus for the Cubs either way…

  6. Czernobog says:
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    Could Billy Hamilton provide baseball’s first ever infield HR next year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Or the ol’ Little League bunt homer…

  7. Steve says:
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    Haren has indeed been traded to the Cubs for Marmol.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Plus for Cubs, just by losing Marmol…

  8. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    Watch where JOSH Hamilton ends up. Where he plays may have a huge impact on his performance.

    @SEA/@OAK/@LAA, combined, he had ONE HR in EIGHTY ABs in 2012.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, will definitely be interesting… He won’t be facing those pitching staffs, but I also wouldn’t trust him to stay healthy either…

  9. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Haren to the Cubs deal not completed; Haren now a free agent.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ah, gotcha… Easy come, easy go, Cubbie fans… Well, not easy come so much…

  10. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Grey: Here’s my first attempt at figuring out my 5 keepers for my 10 team roto auction. Standard categories but OBP instead of AVG:

    Cano ($18)
    Bautista ($7)
    Tulo ($21)
    Rizzo ($4)
    Craig ($4)
    Carlos Santana ($7)
    F-Her ($17)
    Medlen ($4)

    Cano and Bautista for sure but then it gets dicey. Is there enough value in Tulo and F-Her at those prices? In an OBP league, you gotta give Santana some consideration. Someone out of Rizzo, Craig, and Medlen will end up being awesome…..just not such who.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Could go a few different ways but I’d go:

      Cano ($18)
      Bautista ($7)
      Tulo ($21)
      Rizzo ($4)
      Craig ($4)

      As of right now…

      • SwaggerJackers says:
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        @Grey, The one I’m not sold on is Rizzo. Not because the talent isn’t there but because I haven’t heard a ton of hype about him yet. Early rankings on most fantasy sites have him outside the top 10 1Bs. Seems like a might be able to snag him for a reasonable price in the draft. So if he’s off the table, do you go with the upside of Medlen? I forgot to mention it’s a QS league instead of wins.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I wouldn’t go with Medlen next… F-Her, Santana then Medlen…

  11. Prezii says:
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    Greyyyyy! Is it bad i seen this and instantly thought of you?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsMdO7KZZF8

    If anyone is in the hurricane… Just gangnam style and it will get better.. i promise..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s one of the best things I’ve seen, so I’m highly honored that you thought of me when you saw it… If only the reporter, without turning around, starting Gangnam’ing as if he could sense the people behind him…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @royce!, Ha… I like how the second one he stole after the catcher threw the ball back, like he was saying, “Hey, I can also steal bases like this…Or like this… Or…” and then he moonwalked home…

  12. James says:
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    Thanks for the coverage on Hamilton. Where do you project him being drafted in a keeper type league that allows you to keep a few players at a draft position similar to the previous year?

    Assuming the info that we have is he is called up in May…

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      In what size league?

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